Military Review

How 2013 year changed the situation around Iran

24
How 2013 year changed the situation around Iran

2013 year for the Middle East, without any doubt, could be called the year of Iran. Although the Arab spring continued to rage in the region, the war in Syria, the hardest disintegration processes in Libya continued, Yemen, Iran rightfully came out on top in terms of the large-scale global game around it and its nuclear program.


To understand the meaning of the game, you need to go back a while ago. Already in 1979, Iran became an unequivocal signal for the entire Islamic world - the westernization of this unique civilization under the guise of modernization led to severe internal stresses and distortions. The fast-moving processes that took Europe for centuries, inevitably caused rejection on the mental level, and the attempt to change cultural codes and life motivation ultimately led to an explosion and a rollback to civilizational origins.

Nevertheless, the Arab rulers indifferently perceived a very obvious threat and continued their social and economic experiments. As a result, after the beginning of the Arab Spring, most Arab countries were faced with the need to revise the strategy of modernization and began to painfully search for a balance between the need to continue it and the mental features of Islam as a way of life.

In this sense, Iran immediately turned from an outcast of the Islamic world into its leader - so far implicit and in many respects potential. In the three decades that have passed since the 1979 revolution of the year, he managed to go through this path, and he combined two extremely difficult tasks, finding his own special way of solving a very nontrivial task. However, a tough standoff with the West and the United States, in the first place, made his leadership very virtual.

It is precisely this marginalized Iranian position that made it necessary to treat it from the side of Saudi Arabia and Israel with the utmost seriousness. Their position in the region depended entirely on Iran’s confrontation with the United States, and immediately changed with any change in this conflict.

The struggle between Qatar and Saudi Arabia for influence in the Middle East was a purely family affair that did not affect the position of their main enemy - Iran

The Arab spring 2011 of the year gave the Arabian monarchies a unique chance to occupy a special position in the region after the collapse of almost all secular projects. The struggle between Qatar and Saudi Arabia for influence in the Middle East was a purely family affair, without affecting the position of their main enemy, Iran. However, even in its cramped position, the Islamic Republic was able to impose on the monarchies, with their endless financial resources, the hardest struggle in Syria. Iran has proved that its power, even under the “crippling” sanctions of the European Union and the United States, is quite comparable with the combined resources of the Arabian Four. Of all the Arabian monarchies, only Oman and Bahrain excluded themselves from the struggle. The first - for internal ideological reasons, the second - because of its own Shiite spring.

However, external interests and players intervened in this quiet family dispute. From the beginning of his first term, Obama’s policy was subordinated to an extremely important task. The United States, realizing the threat emanating from the Asia-Pacific region, turned out to be completely unprepared for its parry. The American army stuck in Iraq and Afghanistan was excluded from politics and did not pose a threat. The withdrawal of troops became inevitable, but was impossible without creating a fundamentally different configuration of the region’s space. What was needed was either total chaos, or "looking" for the region, which could be controlled remotely, like a drone.

The Middle East region was transformed from republican fiefdoms into a more balanced structure from their henchmen and Democrats' pillars represented by the “Muslim Brotherhood”»

At the first stage, the choice of moderate Islam as a “beholder” seemed not only justified, but also very logical. Ideologically, Obama, as a peddler of the ideas of democracy and human rights, such a neo-Trotskyist, was quite satisfied by moderate Islamists with their ideas of Islamic democracy, a position in relation to modernization, flexibility in relation to the issue of modernizing Islam. At the same time, the problems of interparty struggle were solved in the United States itself. The Middle East region was transformed from the fiefdoms of the Republicans into a more balanced structure from their henchmen and the support of the democrats in the person of the "Muslim Brotherhood". Finally, Iran, locked in a corner by sanctions, was objectively excluded from the Big Game and could not influence the processes launched in the Spring in the region.

Nevertheless, political moderate Islam failed in all countries of the Arab Spring. Why - this is a topic for a separate conversation, and it is quite possible that it is not easy and not fast. So far, we can only state that Obama’s policy in the fall of 2012 has failed. It was not only insulting, but also dangerous in connection with the elections. Obama had to present a new plan, guaranteeing the solution of the main task, for which, in fact, he came to the White House. Convince not only the electorate, but also the American elite in their capacity.

Iran has become the lifesaver of Obama

Iran has become Obama's lifesaver. All the efforts of the US administration were now directed to Iran, and the characters assigned to them in the foreign policy direction - the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense and the head of the CIA best demonstrated the direction of the new policy. All of them are specialists in the Middle East, all have personal and informal connections in the region, and all are marked by a more than loyal attitude towards the Ayatollah regime by the standards of the American establishment. A new tour began, in which at first an important place was occupied by signs and hints.

Already at the end of 2012, the US administration began to send signals about the possibility of changing its attitude towards Iran, offering to advance in the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue from the standpoint of "new initiatives". The United States has rather radically approached the rhetoric about the Syrian conflict, seriously changing its attitudes towards the Syrian militants. If earlier the issues of helping them were resolved incrementally, and almost no one doubted that the help weapons and technology is only a matter of time, and almost a no-fly zone can be put on the agenda, which was supported by the supply of air defense systems to Turkey, then by the beginning of 2013, the situation suddenly began to change. The United States began to express concern about the radicalization of the Syrian opposition, the dominance of al-Qaeda emissaries in its ranks, and then the Western media in general began to equate the Syrian opposition with this iconic scarecrow.

In the spring of the thirteenth, the main leitmotif of comments on the Syrian theme is the painful choice that the United States has to make between fighting the illegitimate and bloody Assad regime and the Al Qaeda terrorists. However, the administration’s main game turned around Iran.

On the one hand, the ayatollahs made already frankly unequivocal hints about the possibility of a warming of relations and a change in the position of the United States at the talks on the Iranian nuclear issue. On the other hand, a completely undisguised preparation of the left-wing radical terrorist group Mojaheddin-e-Khalk began to invade Iran, which was synchronized with the presidential elections. The ghost of the 2.0 Green Revolution was too obvious and frank. The evacuation of the families of the Mojaheddin-e-Khalk militants from Iraq to Spain before the elections in Iran was the last warning to the Iranian elite.

Khamenei understood the hint, and Rouhani’s reformer won the election in Iran, beating the conservative and quite passing candidates from the opposite camp in the first round. At the same time, the intrigue of the east was maintained until the last for the election campaign, and it was just before the voting that the balance leaned in favor of the current president. The repetition of the “Green Revolution” 2009 did not happen, and the new president practically took off at an unprecedented pace, putting his opponents inside the country before making unthinkable earlier decisions.
The time of signs and allusions has ended, and literally six months after the elections turned into key decisions on the Iranian nuclear program, opening up prospects for Iran to lift the sanctions, printing out for him the region of the Middle East and turning its virtual possibilities into quite real ones.

Iran will now have to guarantee the security of Afghanistan and become the backbone of the regime of Hamid Karzai after the withdrawal of NATO troops

However, not everything is so simple and good, and the Iranian leadership is aware of why Obama suddenly needed it. The price for "warming" relations with the West is extremely high. Now Iran is responsible for the elimination of the Salafi International, which is concentrated in the Sunni territories of Iraq and Syria. The size of this powerful conglomerate in 100 is thousands of people and the mobilization potential accumulated during the Arab Spring of at least half a million potential jihadists is a very serious threat to the stability not only of the Middle East.

Iran will now have to guarantee the security of Afghanistan and become the backbone of the Hamid Karzai regime after the withdrawal of NATO troops. Iran will have to eliminate the threat emanating from Saudi Arabia, which has suddenly been faced with the fact of betrayal by its most important ally. Finally, Iran faces the extremely difficult task of preventing conflict with Israel, which is extremely concerned about building up the power of its adversary and is capable of unexpected moves.

Provocation in Eastern Gute at the end of August 2013, in addition to the tasks of disrupting agreements between the US and Iran, carries with it a warning about the possibilities of a tactical alliance between Israel and Saudi Arabia, abandoned by its patron. The Kingdom, worried about the current situation, is rapidly creating a military-political alliance of the six Arabian monarchies as a response to the threat of Iran’s gain. The Arab Spring from the socio-economic explosion of underprivileged masses enters a phase of bloc confrontation, which looks much more dangerous and serious.

The contradictions between Iran and Saudi Arabia seem to be intractable, although factions have already emerged among the Saudi elite, ready to accept the current situation and suggest a different way of interaction than the confrontational one. However, while the probability of a collision between Iran and Saudi Arabia is not removed. Naturally, in the modern world, direct aggression and war are practically excluded, but a wealth of experience has been gained in indirectly collapsing the enemy. Saudi Arabia in this sense looks extremely vulnerable - along its perimeter there are points of tension and fault lines at which Iran is able to successfully conduct a series of extremely painful operations, the result of which could be the disintegration of the Kingdom. An additional source of instability in Saudi Arabia is the unsolved problem of the transfer of power between generations.

One way or another, 2013 has become a year of potential for Iran. The new President of the Republic has successfully dealt with previously unsolvable problems, but then he faces a great deal of trouble. Iran must pass along a narrow path, on the one hand, which is the interests of the country's peaceful development, on the other - the interests of the United States, for which it was “freed” from isolation. We need to find a way that suits Iran itself, and fulfills at least some of the tacit agreements with Obama. How to do this is a difficult question. It is even more difficult to pacify the agitated region and unite it with a new idea of ​​Islamic modernization.

It depends on Russia whether we will be its subject or become the object of the Persian Renaissance.

Russia in this conglomerate of problems looks like a serious stabilizing factor that can allow Iran to solve difficult problems using an independent source of power from the United States. Iran’s interest in supra-state structures that are being formed in Eurasia’s space is obvious - it needs support in a rapidly changing environment. Russia, having created a strategic regional alliance with Iran, will get a partner with a strong economy, prospects and leadership in an extremely important region.

Another question is that this alliance must become equal, and for this we need to protect ourselves from the imperial aspirations of the Iranian leadership. Dizzy with success is a well-known problem, and Iran’s success may in some way allow its elite to view its allies as instruments of Iranian politics. It depends on Russia - whether we will be its subject or become the object of the Persian Renaissance. The question is still open.
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  1. JIaIIoTb
    JIaIIoTb 31 December 2013 10: 23
    +3
    It depends on Russia whether we will be its subject or become the object of the Persian Renaissance. The question is still open.

    "East is a delicate matter." Sukhov.

    We have everything to become the main player in the whole east.
    It remains for the "small" thing to do, to do just that.
    1. Vadivak
      Vadivak 31 December 2013 11: 13
      +4
      Quote: JIaIIoTb
      We have everything to become the main player in the whole east.


      I would like without prejudice to their own country. In the East there is such a rule - Do not believe a single person, because no one is telling the truth.
      1. sledgehammer102
        sledgehammer102 31 December 2013 12: 24
        +4
        Quote: Vadivak
        Do not believe a single person, because no one is telling the truth.


        No one believes a word in international affairs, except that only the colonies of the United States and the EU listen to everyone with their mouths open, as at a meeting with Amway.

        But what’s true is that the Americans planted a very large pig in Israel, starting a dip relationship with Iran. It is a fact
        1. Spartan
          Spartan 2 January 2014 16: 48
          0
          Israel has no nuclear weapons! Thank God!
      2. Vovka levka
        Vovka levka 31 December 2013 16: 22
        +1
        Quote: Vadivak

        I would like without prejudice to their own country.

        This does not happen, especially with us.
    2. pawel1961
      pawel1961 1 January 2014 17: 19
      0
      what depends. sit on the ground. and think again.
  2. A.YARY
    A.YARY 31 December 2013 10: 25
    +4
    Iran is the lever that itself "asks" in the hand.
    The question facing our diplomats and politicians is how quickly are they able to seize this lever before SyShyA does it?
    Here, without sentimentality, But also not without a certain amount of emotional "blackmail". But what about Russia with traditional Islam and a huge mass of Muslims, it is simply obliged to find that point of contact, on an emotional level, that will smooth out the roughness of secular power.
    We will see.
  3. makarov
    makarov 31 December 2013 10: 28
    +6
    Whatever it was, but Iran has experience of real military operations, but the Saudis are used to either raking in the heat of someone else's hands, or joining the military grouping of the majority in order to exaggerate their "victories", so hypothetically, a double-edged sword.
    1. Vadivak
      Vadivak 31 December 2013 11: 32
      +4
      Quote: makarov
      Iran has experience of real military operations


      With Iraq? from 1980 to 1988, they killed a bunch of people, fired on peaceful cities, poisoned each other with gas and no result on either side.

      Examples of Iranian combat experience
      On January 5, 1981, in the Kharhi Valley near the Iranian city of Susengerd, the Iraqis managed to practically destroy the 1st Panzer Brigade of the 16th Panzer Division of the Northern Iranian Army. The Iranian side lost more than 100 combat vehicles. On January 7-8, heavy losses were suffered by the 2nd and 3rd brigade of the same 16th building. Iranian tanks were fragmented and without infantry support. This led to the loss, according to Iraq, of 214 tanks. About 300 T-62s were operating from Iraq.

      On February 24, 1986, more than 100 Iranian troops were advancing in northern Iraq in the Kirkuk region. The attacking Iranian troops lost more than half their strength, the operation failed.
    2. alone
      alone 31 December 2013 12: 31
      +2
      undoubtedly Pavel, there is experience. This experience consists in cleansing minefields with living waves
      militias, the mullahs of the regime appeared before them and promised them a paradise if they did.
      to fight for 8 years to shed the blood of a million people. Despite the fact that 5 assaults were carried out, the Iranians were not able to take Basra, which was inhabited by Shiites close to the Iranians.
      and Iraq freed all its territories in 36 hours. One of the most stupid wars of the 20th century that Saddam started, but lasted 8 years due to the stupidity of Khomeini and the Iranian military
      1. makarov
        makarov 31 December 2013 16: 32
        +2
        Then remember the Chinese attacks in Vietnam? When the attackers walked in waves, and the Vietnamese did not have enough bullets. Recall Somalia, how they reigned with the support of the USSR, and then they turned out to be beaten, with regards to Afghanistan, we should not forget that the Chinese also spoiled us as much as they could, but now they themselves are being blamed for in Africa.
        P.S. And something I have not heard about the combat experience of the Saudis.
        1. alone
          alone 1 January 2014 12: 40
          +3
          Quote: makarov
          Then remember the Chinese attacks in Vietnam? When the attackers walked in waves, and the Vietnamese did not have enough bullets.


          Well, firstly, the Chinese attacked in waves, and did not clean the minefields. This is not the same. Secondly, no one gave passes to Paradise for the Chinese.) In military affairs, religious fanaticism interferes with combat experience. These religious people were expelled from army of personnel officers, and instead they planted activists of the Iranian revolution who thought little in military science. and as a result such huge losses and complete setbacks on the fronts. And do not forget that the aviation component of the Iranian army and air defense is today the weakest link in this army and with such they hope that it’s simply impossible. The Iranian Air Force’s operating airplanes are operational due to the cannibalization process. So that 10 airplanes can fly, you have to disassemble at least 5 others in order to provide airplanes with spare parts. Local developments are based on the same -4 and f-5, which are about 40-50 years old. And as regards air defense in general, it’s a shame. Besides the anti-aircraft missile defense systems that protect the nuclear power plant, everything else is old junk. That’s why Iran needs Russia. Sell them your Chinese air defense systems, already tomorrow Iran eniyu to Russia to speak in this country drugomu.U words and actions are the opposite.
  4. alone
    alone 31 December 2013 10: 28
    +2
    Iran! Indeed, 2013 was rich on Iran. The presidential election, an unexpected turn in relations with the West, a sudden departure from its principles on the nuclear issue, in the hope of easing economic sanctions.
    and on domestic politics, too, everything was somehow incomprehensible. and most importantly, the Author forgot to point out and the fact that for the first time in many years the south-eastern regions of Iran, Wahhabi groups appeared that began to carry out sabotage and attacks. region, oh, how simple it is. The emergence of these groups right now leads to certain thoughts
  5. Power
    Power 31 December 2013 11: 21
    +1
    Who is next to the distribution after Syria? Judging by the talks between the US and Iran, Russia.
  6. 11111mail.ru
    11111mail.ru 31 December 2013 11: 43
    +5
    Gentlemen and comrades, Iran professes the Shiite version of Islam, and Russian Muslims are Sunnis. Mutual rubbish between these two religions within the same religion is no less than that of the Orthodox and Catholics. Ayatollah Ruhollah Mousavi Khomeini once called the United States a great Satan, and the USSR a small Satan. Again, nayo with the delivery of air defense systems to Iran under pressure from the Israeli lobby. The Ayatollahs will remember this in due time ... Most of the people present here should have remembered what power the Greeks fought in the era of Themistocles - Alexander. Persia was great power 500 years BC Iran will build its policy, in contrast to the current ErEfiya, although in 2013 there were attempts to independently pursue the policy of the Russian Federation, and there were quite successful ones.Stake in the ass to Mr. Kozyrev A.V., stake of aspen to Gorbachev MS! A plague to all terrorists who commit lawlessness in the Russian Federation and their sponsors!
    And to all honest people in the coming year, my most sincere wishes for health, material well-being and peaceful sky above my head!
    With regards to the year of the horse: in childhood I had contact with them, therefore
    - keep up because it can kick!
    - Do not get ahead of yourself because you can bite!
    - lead the horse "by the bridle", then everything will be fine with you!
    Happy New 2014 Year!
    1. valokordin
      valokordin 31 December 2013 12: 00
      +1
      Quote: 11111mail.ru
      to all terrorists who are doing lawlessness in the Russian Federation and their sponsors! And to all honest people in the coming year, my most sincere wishes for health, material well-being and a peaceful sky overhead! As for the year of the horse: I had communication with them in my childhood, THEREFORE, I could not lag behind kick! - do not run ahead because it can bite! - lead the horse "by the bridle", then everything will be fine with you! Happy New Year 2014!

      "Oh, why did we miss the place of the shah, our descendants will not forgive us for this"
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. Andrey44
      Andrey44 31 December 2013 12: 01
      +4
      Bravo. However, I note that for many years representatives of completely different religions have been living perfectly in Kazan. And they live peacefully and support each other. And no one can quarrel us, because we are all Russians and our homeland.
      1. Ihrek
        Ihrek 31 December 2013 12: 37
        +3
        About Dagestan, I can say the same thing. There are many more nationalities living here. And everyone lives peacefully and together. I am sure from the outside it seems this is not so. But in fact, people living in Dagestan are very friendly. There are never hassles or even misunderstandings on this basis. Believe me. I was born in Dagestan, studied at the same school, graduated from a university in Makhachkala, served an emergency at the KSF in Novaya Zemlya, but first in Arkhangelsk then Severodvinsk. Visited many regions. I felt the worst attitude towards people of a different nationality in central Russia. And the most friendly people live in Arkhangelsk and in Dagestan. Happy New Year dear forum users.
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. CALL.
        CALL. 1 January 2014 13: 28
        +5
        Quote: Andrey44
        However, I note that for many years representatives of completely different religions have been living perfectly in Kazan. And they live peacefully and support each other. And no one can quarrel us, because we are all Russians and our homeland.

        In Kazan (Kotlov is a Russian city, known since time immemorial, mentioned in Veles-Kniga and other sources of that time, by the 10th century it came under the control of the first Bulgar and then Tatar hordes. They renamed it Kazan (a simple tracing paper - "Kazan" after -Turkic - "cauldron") celebrated on October 2 (or tried to celebrate) the day of memory of the Tatars who defended the city from Russian troops. There is an obvious confrontation on a national basis. Although in fact the city was taken not by Russians, but by Russian-Tatar troops. August 16 to Kazan Murza Kamai Khuseynov passed to serve Ivan the Terrible. Shig-Alei cavalry provided cover for the rifle detachments - and if he is German, then I am ready to recognize myself as Pope. Russian-Tatar troops took Kazan, eliminating Istanbul's influence on the Volga and protecting civilians from predatory raids , freed tens of thousands of slaves. ”It is enough to recognize the participation of the Tatars in this noble cause - and the national question loses its acuteness.
        By the way, Dulles’s plan about inciting ethnic hatred was repeatedly mentioned here. And no one paid attention to how it is being implemented. Good teachers diligently sow discord between the largest national groups - Russians and Tatars. The entire course of history is full of pearls about how the Tatars attacked, how the Russians went to the Tatars, etc. But nowhere is it indicated that the Tatars are our symbiosis, a partner nation. The Tatar units ALWAYS were part of the Russian troops, participated in all Russian wars - both internecine and in battles with an external enemy. We can say that the Tatars are just Russian light cavalry. Or Russian-Tatar forged army.
        The Tatars fought against Mamaia on the Kulikovo Field along with the Moscow army, the Tatars were the first to attack the enemy in the Swedish and Livonian war, in 1410 near the Grunwald the united Polish-Russian-Tatar army routed the crusaders, breaking the ridge of the Teutonic Order - and it was the Tatars who took the first blow.
        1. Kir
          Kir 2 January 2014 16: 45
          0
          That's right, only there are questions about "antiquities", what century is Veles-book in reality, as well as other artifacts. then a question about the Tatars themselves, since somewhere it slipped that these names were later attached to them, and so they are the indigenous inhabitants of the Bulgars, by the way, outwardly they are not very similar to each other, so most likely under the same name not only are there different peoples , but not the fact that from different groups.
          With regards to the history studied in schools and universities, this is generally a separate and highly politicized topic, one mythical Kievan Rus is worth, by the way, to a considerable degree, merit in the formation of many historical myths is the work of religions, and not least Orthodoxy .
          1. Beck
            Beck 2 January 2014 20: 34
            +1
            Quote: Kir
            then the question is about the Tatars themselves, since somewhere it slipped that these names were later attached to them, and they are the indigenous inhabitants of Bulgaria, by the way, they look a little alike, so it’s most likely that different peoples , but not the fact that from different groups.


            If so the question arose, I can offer a brief general excursion.

            In the 3-4 millennium BC, the territories of the Volga, Ural, South Siberia, Kazakhstan, Central Asia, and Xinjiang were settled by Indo-European tribes of Iranian-speaking Aryans, Aryans, who came from Central South Europe.

            In the 1st century AD, the Türkic-speaking Huns, who came from their ancestral homeland, the steppes of present Mongolia, assimilated the Aryans of Xinjiang and Southeast Kazakhstan - Saks, Massagets, Khabomaev, Ephthalites, Tochars, etc.

            In the 2nd century AD the other part of the Huns, from Mongolia, moved to Northern Kazakhstan, the Volga region, and the Urals. Here they assimilated the Aryans - Sarmatians, Sauromats, Scythians, etc., as well as part of the Ugro-Finnish tribes.

            In the 4th century, a part, already Turkic-speaking, of this cross under the Europeanized name of the Huns went derban Europe, causing the Great Migration of Peoples. Yes there and disappeared.

            The rest of the cross, in the Volga and Ural regions, gave rise to proto-Bulgarian tribes. The Proto-Bulgars gave rise to the Bulgars, Khazars and other Turkic-speaking tribes proper.

            In the 7th century, the Bulgars squeezed by the Khazars were divided. The unit headed by Khan Asparuh left the lower reaches of the Danube, subjugated the Slavs of the Wallachians and created the Bulgarian Khanate, which later became the Bulgarian kingdom. Another part of the Bulgars, along the Volga, rose to Kama and created the Volga Bulgaria.

            During the Horde, the Volga-Kama Bulgars passed the common name of the Horde - Tatars, Tatars.

            Modern Tatars have both a Turkic phenotype and a European one inherited from distant ancestors - Indo-Europeans of the Iranian-speaking language group, Aryans. This suggests that assimilation in the 2nd century was not complete. In general, the Chuvashs basically only adopted the Turkic language.

            Something like this, without going into details and subtleties.
            1. Kir
              Kir 2 January 2014 21: 28
              0
              You are right and wrong at the same time, but what about the phenomenon that people living for a long time in a certain territory are immune to certain diseases, and their digestion is maximally adapted to local food? Well, you educate a stranger in your customs, and what to do with the body, he what depends on ideology? Well, maybe Yoga of the highest standard is capable of such a thing, well, not all the same. Sorry, there is an example from India when an alien tribe suffered from some kind of fever for a very long time, and then acquired immunity, so the children of those colonists who were mestizos with the locals survived, others became seriously ill.
            2. Kir
              Kir 2 January 2014 21: 41
              0
              By the way, massagets are completely referred to as Scythians-massagets. And even where the Magyars (the Finno-Ugric group) got lost then, after all, they went all the same way, defeating the Bulgar and Slavs, and then occupying the territory of Chervona Rusyna, Hungary. Then it’s not indicated that the Pechenegs are the founders of Bulgaria, and only then did the Slavs come.
              And the question is how to the doctor, where you can find materials on nationalities not on the basis of belonging to language groups, but on the basis of genetics.
    4. alone
      alone 31 December 2013 12: 34
      +4
      I would not trust Iran like that. The Persians have extensive experience in diplomacy, and do not forget that Iran is doing what is beneficial to it.
      1. Ihrek
        Ihrek 31 December 2013 12: 40
        +5
        I agree, it is necessary to keep an eye on Iran, it will throw at any moment if it will be beneficial to it. But the benefits of our mutual understanding and friendship would be enormous.
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. Vadivak
        Vadivak 31 December 2013 13: 26
        +6
        Quote: lonely
        o Iran is doing what is beneficial to it.


        Soviet experience of the Afghan war. Spirits came and went from Pakistan and Iran. There were bases, weapons and doctors. Iran, if Russia needs it, is not as a friend, but as a tool against our enemies.
        1. alone
          alone 31 December 2013 14: 48
          +1
          So it is. Vadim, Iran thinks exactly the same as you do. Need SAMs remember Russia, need nuclear technology Iran starts talking about fraternity, but as soon as the Caspian begins, they turn their backs on Russia. It’s better to have honest enemies than such pseudo-friends.
      4. tennis
        tennis 1 January 2014 12: 21
        +3
        Quote: lonely
        I would not trust Iran like that. The Persians have extensive experience in diplomacy, and do not forget that Iran is doing what is beneficial to it.



        Well, and everyone else including the United States and Russia naturally do what is beneficial to others ?!
        Would write a collection of their opus, maybe someone will buy it.
        1. alone
          alone 1 January 2014 12: 26
          +3
          I’m not going to write a collection. Nowadays sponsors are needed for this. I’m too proud to beg money from someone. My comment is on those forum users who consider Iran an ally of Russia because Iran is at odds with the West. But you probably know that, the enemy of my enemy is not always my ally.
  7. APASUS
    APASUS 31 December 2013 11: 43
    +4
    The only thing that can be argued is that the Iranian card is postponed and the other president of the United States will play it. This president is not capable of anything. We have already encountered a deferred problem more than once, they can easily return to it at the Pentagon. Despite the fact that Iran did not rush to fulfill it with lightning speed arrangements, and will follow up on the retaliatory steps. It will be a long game, in the east it is customary to change orientations regardless of their allies.
  8. knn54
    knn54 31 December 2013 13: 31
    +2
    The Bush family (Republicans) was closely associated with the royal family in Saudi Arabia on the basis of oil production in Texas and on the Arabian Peninsula. The Saudis liquidated by the hands of the Yankees their opponents: Saddam Hussein, and Muammar Gaddafi. They limited Iran’s influence in the Middle East, weakening its strategic partner - Syria,
    And Washington suffered a series of political and military failures that affected the American image in the outside world, and America’s financial and economic situation was not so hot. Obama realized that it is more effective to interact with moderate Islamists and secular regimes in the Middle East than to support radical movements in this region ...
    BUT Saudi Arabia and Israel have not yet said the last word.
    The question is how long the US President Barack Obama and the Iranian leader Ayatollah Khamenei will be able to restrain their supporters of tough measures.
    1. alone
      alone 31 December 2013 14: 53
      +2
      It’s naive to think that the Iranians have some tough measures with respect to America. Technically, the Iranians are many times behind. It’s enough to go to Iran and look at their life and condition in order to understand what the country is like. Remember the Saddam who shouted to the whole world that he would break all the forces that have gathered around America? in Iran, the same thing. The maximum that capable of mass attacks of suicide bombers. By the way you know this phenomenon. Suicide bombers. And the same messages that suicide bombers will go to paradise. They even ID issued in Paradise in advance her)) Do you think these can resist America and the West?
  9. Rash
    Rash 31 December 2013 18: 45
    +8
    Quote: 11111mail.ru
    and Russian Muslims are Sunnis

    Here I am, for example, a Tatar. If you were born a Tatar, be kind to Islam, right from birth. And it is not up to the baby to decide what kind of Islamic movement it takes. This religion is for the tops, vegetables that have flooded our country. I myself am an atheist, sympathizing with Orthodoxy.
    1. Beck
      Beck 2 January 2014 15: 37
      +1
      Quote: Rash
      Here I am, for example, a Tatar. If you were born a Tatar, be kind to Islam, right from birth. And it is not up to the baby to decide what kind of Islamic movement it takes. This religion is for the tops, vegetables that have flooded our country.


      A child is born without a nationality. He is born by HUMAN. By nationality, he will be later when he is taught one or another language.

      In the same way, a child is born FREE from all postulates, including religious ones. By faith, a child will become someone only depending on the environment in which he grew up. And if a grown-up child has sound reason, logic and knowledge, at least 10 classes, then he himself will reject the imposed in childhood, any religious myths created in dark times when there was no Enlightenment.
    2. Kir
      Kir 2 January 2014 16: 16
      +1
      By the way, I’m generally bothered by the way I was born Russian, which means Orthodox, Tatar-Orthodox, forgive me, of course, but for all of us who live in this territory, History is much older than these religions, and they are accepted, and sometimes imposed, in which century, and then who then should include such a Person as Our Great Tsar Boris Godunov?
      With Persia even stranger how old is she then? Thousands, and Islam around 1300? but before what was there? Zaroostrism, if I remember correctly.
      Regarding what Beck said, it’s kind of like a doctor knows that nationality is also biology, and not just external rituals and so on. But what’s true, then we are all born Human beings, and who we become is a difficult question of the influence of many factors and in not the last ideological.
      1. Beck
        Beck 2 January 2014 19: 52
        +1
        Quote: Kir
        that nationality is also biology, and not just external rituals and so on,


        Biology, genetics determines the types of groups of people and their movement in one direction or another. And of course the group will have similar phenotypes. And you can trace where certain groups moved in time. But genetics does not determine that the Slavic genotype is necessarily Russian or Ukrainian or Belarus.

        Take a newborn Papuan, bring him up in a Russian family and he will grow up with unshakable confidence in his Russianness. And the fact that his genes are not the same will in no way affect his spiritual identity. In the same way, give the newborn Kazakh to the Spaniards, he will grow up as a Spaniard.
  10. 11111mail.ru
    11111mail.ru 1 January 2014 10: 19
    +2
    I apologize, colleagues, friends! I looked through this thread and realized that I accidentally gave another direction to the discussion - not corresponding to the main topic, i.e. confessional differences ... although the topic is indicated - Iran!
    First: Congratulations again on the upcoming New Year 2014!
    Secondly: freedom of conscience (for those who have it) has not been canceled.
    V. S. Vysotsky, “Ballad on the Relocation of Souls”:
    "Who believes in Mohammed, who in Allah, who in Jesus,
    Whoever does not believe in anything - even to hell, to spite everyone, -
    The Indians came up with a good religion:
    That we, having given ends, do not die for good.
    Your soul strove up
    Born again with a dream
    But if you lived like a pig -
    You will remain a pig. "
    A dissident from Nazareth told the Jews:
    "And he said to them:" The Sabbath is for a man, and not a man for the Sabbath;
    Therefore the Son of Man is the lord of the sabbaths "" (Mark 2: 27-28).
    For me and my loved ones: nonhumans who poisoned civilians with "Cyclone B", burned with napalm, exploded in the subway and at train stations, captured maternity hospitals and schools - the same: SPOT, rabble, scum of the human race, in whatever clothes they are dressed up, no matter what beautiful words they said!
    Sorry again for breaking the thread of discussion! Peaceful sky, fresh bread, clean water to all of YOU!
  11. michajlo
    michajlo 1 January 2014 17: 16
    0
    Hello everyone, I wish you well-being after the festive feast!

    Yes, Iran is now a different neighbor, partner and adversary of Russia and the republics of the SA. The long-running changes are being prepared implicitly, now they are shown and carried out at an accelerated pace, and after them the next other steps. The current state of countries and future problems are changing rapidly.

    In any case, the delay in delivering S-300 complexes to Iran, Russia will come around many times, not to mention the LOSS of its reputation as a RELIABLE SUPPLIER of weapons, which the USSR created for many decades and Russia, having caved in for the umpteenth time, itself spoiled this IMPORTANT and EXPENSIVE RERUTATION.

    Cunning and inconsistency in the East are present just like everywhere else in the world, just in the East they will directly look into your eyes and smile artificially until the very end of the ceremony, preparing you a catch or even a scaffold ...

    What calms me down is that the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Lavrov, is an old skillful career diplomat, and I think that he has not only diplomats who are "kindred to those in power," but also knowledgeable and intelligent diplomats.
    Although the professional suitability and patriotism of current officials in most post-USSR republics, I personally have great doubts.

    Well, nothing new 2015 and the next 2-3 years will explain to us a lot, and let's see how accurate the premonitions and experience of the past years are accurate and useful?
  12. mountain
    mountain 4 January 2014 11: 08
    0
    Recently, Russia has a coherent and purposeful policy and there is no reason to doubt the actions and chosen methods of communication with the Middle East. Moreover, there are nuances about which, they are not available to a simple layman. Please note that in recent times, a lot of attention has been paid to religion. And according to statistics over the past decades, there are more and more atheists. And waves of religiosity come from Islam and its movements. And while among Muslims there will be no understanding, peace and stability. We will only dream of peace.
    1. Kir
      Kir 4 January 2014 15: 21
      0
      I’m sure that Atheists aren’t getting more than 100 Believers less than all Believers, their percentage is approximately stable, but the percentage of those who consider themselves to be different is different, and by the way, most of the abominations including the so-called Islamic terrorism, forgive the aggression neophytes, and it’s always been forgiven that for the most part the most cruel are neophytes and those who have joined so they need to prove that they are their own! than they skillfully use pseudo-teachers and pseudo-prophets of all stripes at all times.
      Regarding the nuances that are not accessible to the layman, so the majority of the Politics is generally a sideline, because as they say in the People, "If only there was no war," although much even everyday life is tied precisely to it, but that could only be understood by a Soviet Man, the Successor of the Man of the Russian Empire what they are trying to disaccustom Us by putting mercantile interests in the foreground, it is just easier to manage such a "people".