Trends in the development of foreign trade of Ukraine
One of the reasons for this situation is inadequate foreign economic activity.
The export structure of Ukraine is characterized by a significant proportion of products with a low degree of processing, which are most sensitive to world market conditions. So, in 2011, the export of such groups of goods as base metals and products from them (32,3%), mineral products (15%), chemical products and related industries (7,9%) and products of plant origin (8,1%) , accounted for 63,3% of total exports.
In turn, in import, mineral products (36,4%) and product groups with a high degree of processing dominate, such as machinery, equipment and machinery (15,5%), means of land transport, aircraft, and floating equipment (7,5%). In 2011, the share of such goods in the total import of goods in Ukraine was 59,4%.
The geographical structure of Ukraine’s partners is very limited. Ukraine’s largest trading partner is the Russian Federation, with which trade accounts for almost 29% of exports and 35,3% of imports in 2011.
The European Union is Ukraine’s second largest trading partner. The main form of economic relations between Ukraine and the EU is foreign trade. At the beginning of the 90s, after the collapse of the USSR, trade with European countries dropped sharply. Subsequently, by the beginning of the 2000-s, the dynamics of trade was characterized by instability, which is explained by the presence of factors of both short-term and long-term nature. In 2004-2011, there was a tendency towards an increase in commodity turnover, Ukrainian exports and imports (Fig. 1).
* Source: compiled by the author according to [6].
Ukraine's trade with the EU in 2011 amounted to 43,7 billion dollars (increased by 36% compared to 2010 year). However, despite the positive dynamics, as well as the fact that today the EU is one of the main trading partners of Ukraine, Ukraine’s share in the total EU imports is insignificant (less than 1%), it cannot be compared with other countries. The Ukrainian export share of the total EU exports is also insignificant and amounts to 1,4% in 2011 compared to 1,9% in 2008 year [11]. Such low absolute and relative indicators of foreign trade do not correspond not only to the economic potential of countries, but also to their position in neighboring countries. The potential of the EU market is about 16 trillion, but this has nothing to do with Ukraine.
As can be seen from fig. 1, for the trade of Ukraine and the EU in recent years has been characterized by a significant negative trade balance. For example, from 2005 to 2011, the average annual trade deficit was 6,4 billion dollars. The lowest value of this indicator for 2004-2011 years was 1,9 billion dollars in 2005 year, and all - 10,7 billion dollars. in 2008 year. In connection with the beginning of the economic crisis in 2008, the trade turnover of Ukraine in 2009 with the EU countries decreased by 47%. However, in subsequent years, trade with the EU countries almost recovered to the level of 2008 of the year.
The level and dynamics of quantitative indicators of trade relations between Ukraine and the EU are largely determined by the commodity structure. Ukrainian exports with EU countries are dominated (over 60%) by low-grade products (ferrous metals and products from them, energy materials, ores, slags, ash, fertilizers, cereals, etc.). At the same time, exports to the EU of industrial products with a high share of value added, such as machinery and equipment, still remain at a low level and amounted to 2011 in the year 1919 million, or 10,4% of Ukraine’s total exports to the EU.
Here are statistics on foreign trade with the Russian Federation. In terms of turnover (tabl. 1), Ukraine ranks about fifth among the trade partners of the Russian Federation, despite all the difficulties in bilateral relations that have occurred since the beginning of the 2000-s.
However, the dynamics of trade relations is characterized by a downward path. Thus, the Ukrainian share of imports to the total volume of imports of goods of the Russian Federation amounted to 1995 in the year - 14,2%, and in 2010 it decreased to 6,1%. Exports to Ukraine are also decreasing relative to the total volume of exports of goods from the Russian Federation, in 2010, it was 5,8% compared to 9,1% in 1995.
* Source: compiled by the author according to [10].
In our opinion, the proclaimed course of European integration should not be aimed at reducing the presence of Ukrainian enterprises in the Russian market. For example, during the last 20 years, European countries have only increased their share in total exports and imports of the Russian Federation. In fig. 2 shows the structure of Ukraine’s exports by selected product groups in the Russian Federation.
As can be seen from fig. 2, a feature of the Ukrainian economy is that, with a course on European integration, the largest market for domestic manufacturing enterprises is in the Russian Federation.
* Source: compiled by the author according to [6].
Total Russian business from 2002 to 2010. lost an insignificant share (0,6%) of its presence in the domestic market of the processing industry of Ukraine: today its share remains high - 8,2% compared to 4,6% in China, during this period increased its presence by 3,6 pp and Germany, which lost 2,2 pp At the same time, the share of Russia in the domestic market of engineering products in Ukraine decreased from 12,2% in 2002 to 8,7% in 2010. At the same time, China’s presence is increasing from 1,6 to 8,7%, respectively. Germany is losing its position - from 14,6 to 11,2%, respectively. In terms of chemical and petrochemical products, Russia leads the Ukrainian market - 12,3%, gradually losing ground (in 2002 - 12,8%), while China’s presence increases from 1,3% in 2002 to 5,3% in 2010. Thus , for the products of the processing industry, and especially those important in the technical aspect of its industries, such as engineering, chemistry and petrochemistry, Russia and Germany are losing their presence, and their share is increasingly taking China, expanding its presence in groups of goods with high added value. It is worth noting that Russia has sharply lost its share in the transport equipment markets, including Ukrainian, this share decreased from 23,2% in 2002 to 12,7% in 2010, although after the crisis 2009 in 2010, Russia increased presence in this market. It should be noted that the EU has a constantly large share on the Ukrainian market of transport equipment - 27% in 2002, which, after a certain decline in 2005 (to 20,1%) in 2010, almost reached its previous size - 27,4% [3, c. 11-12].
Note that, in contrast to Ukraine, for example, countries such as Japan, Italy, France, on the contrary, increase trade with the Russian Federation. In particular, their share in the RF import structure increases from 1,6, 4,0, 2,3 percent in 1995 to 4,5, 4,4, 4,4 percent, respectively, in 2010. Germany, the Netherlands and China in general were and are today the largest trading partners of the Russian Federation.
After analyzing the commodity structure of Ukraine’s foreign trade, one can see that the country has a negative balance each year since 2005, totaling more than 67,7 billion dollars. It is important to remember that a state that does not have a sufficient set of different manufacturing industries guarantees itself with time impoverishment of the population and socio-economic decline.
Under such conditions, even a favorable conjuncture in the grain market, which arose as a result of the food crisis 2007-2008, instead of stimulating active export of grain from Ukraine, can turn into an uncontrollable process, in particular, due to the impossibility of introducing export quotas for grain, which is one of Ukraine’s obligations after its entry into the WTO. Under such conditions, it is not necessary to expect an increase in feed grain supplies for domestic animal husbandry, its development is further hampered by increasing imports of cheap meat and food by-products [7, p. 56].
By the way, well-known scientists of Ukraine, conducting research in this direction, noted the negative consequences for the Ukrainian economy of membership in the WTO. For example, “... accession to the WTO, which provides for a reduction in export duty rates beneficial for domestic exporters, may be associated with undesirable consequences for the Ukrainian economy, which is characterized by a significant proportion of raw materials and semi-finished products in the structure of commodity exports, but at the same time has real potential to increase the volume of processing of national goods "[2, p. 35].
As practice shows, Ukraine could not use the “real potential” to increase the manufacturing industry by joining the WTO. For example, the volume of exports of live animals in 2011 year increased by the corresponding period of the previous year in 2,7 times.
At the same time, in Ukraine, the livestock of the main types of livestock continues to decline: in particular, the number of cattle by the 2011 year has decreased compared to the 1990 year by 5,5 times. The livestock of cattle is at a lower level than during the Russian Empire (Fig. 3).
* Source: compiled by the author according to [6].
Continuing such a trend in the near future could lead to a complete loss of food independence of the state for a group of meat and dairy products. This state of agriculture has already led to the fact that Ukraine has reduced meat consumption per capita to the level of the beginning of the 70-s of the XX century (Fig. 4).
* Source: compiled by the author according to [6, 9, p. 470].
Moreover, such a decline in agriculture occurs not only in animal husbandry. We are talking about almost all types of agricultural products.
For example, this situation is also observed in the group of industries (flax, sheep and hop), which are united (except for high rates of decline in production) and the fact that the main reason for their decline is institutional failures of state authorities and customs corruption. Such miscalculations led to the fact that the demand for domestic flax, wool and hops fell sharply in Ukraine and, as a result, their production decreased [5, p. 61]. The insecurity of the domestic commodity producer has grown due to the imperfect customs policy of the state. For example, at the beginning of 90-s, the lack of import duties led to the fact that imported hops almost completely supplanted the domestic one. In recent years, 75-80% of the need for hop cones provides imports [5, p. 63].
Another example of the curtailment of production in traditional industries of Ukrainian industry is the reduction of shoe production.
* Source: compiled by the author according to [6].
As can be seen from fig. 5, which compared with 1990 in the year, footwear production in the country decreased in 7,1 times from - 196 million pairs to 27,6 million pairs in 2011 year. The share of imports in domestic consumption is more than 80%. In fig. 6 presents the number of imported shoes in relation to its production in Ukraine. In fig. 6 shows that the share of imports is constantly fluctuating. So in 2008, the ratio between manufactured and imported shoes was 1: 14, in 2010 - 1: 9, in 2011 - 1: 3.
According to various estimates, the domestic footwear market of Ukraine is approximately 120-140 million pairs per year.
* Source: Compiled by the author according to [6].
From fig. 6 shows that imports almost completely meet domestic demand for footwear. It is advisable to note that Ukraine is an exporter of shoes and its exports are almost equal to the volume of production. Thus, in 2006-2011, shoe exports in Ukraine amounted to 22,2, 23,2, 23,6, 20,6, 24,7, 26,5 million pairs, respectively, and production - 21,2, 22,5, 22,2, 20,4, 25,7, 27,6 million pairs. In 2006-2009, more shoes were exported to Ukraine than were produced, which gives grounds to state its re-export.
Today practically all economists are talking about the innovative development of the Ukrainian economy. This over the past 20 years constantly declares and the leadership of our state. In this regard, more and more scientists are paying attention to the reorientation of the domestic economy from the raw materials to the innovative path of development.
At the same time, Ukraine has an opinion about the undesirable features of the domestic economy, which is that “a high proportion of trade with the CIS remains in the structure of Ukrainian exports, while declaring the European direction as a priority” [1, p. 32], or "... with the CIS Customs Union, it is necessary to maintain relations at a lower integration level - integrative convergence" [4, p. 88].
On this occasion, it should be noted that there are significant contradictions in Ukraine’s trade relations with the EU, which consist in preserving elements of discrimination of domestic exporters, applying restrictive business practices, or preventing Ukraine from entering promising markets.
The EU, for example, proposes to abolish the import duty, which is about 15%, but leaves the entry price - the input price. That is, if exports to the EU occur at a price below the input, then due to the additional charge, the price difference is eliminated. That is, domestic products in the European market will not be cheaper.
For example, in one of the latest discussions of the formation of the customs territory with the EU, where Ukraine promised to open a trade zone with the eurozone countries, it turned out that they offer to set a zero rate for goods that we do not produce (dates, kiwi, bananas, avocados, etc.). .d.) However, the following quotas are offered for our traditional products: 15 thousand tons for pork, 10 thousand tons for chicken (for which domestic needs are already satisfied by almost 100%) and the same amount for beef. And this is despite the fact that the Ukrainian proposal was for 30 thousand tons for beef, 50 thousand tons for pork, the profitability of which in Ukraine is higher than 16%. Similarly, by grain. As part of the EU’s free trade zone, the quota for 100-200 KT is proposed. Note that the current quota for third countries is more than 3,5 mln. Ton at 12 euro per ton. In fact, these quotas fall on two countries, Russia and Ukraine, since practically no one else exports grain to Europe. That is, Ukraine already has millions of tons of quota, and in the free trade zone only a few thousand tons are offered.
The EU is not satisfied with the export duty on sunflower seeds, which is 10%, Ukraine, in return, is offering to cancel it. Cancellation of this duty may lead to the fact that 7 million tons of raw sunflower will go to the EU, and domestic oil and fat combines with a capacity of 9 million tons will need to be stopped [8, p. 8].
So, over the past two decades of market reforms of the national economy of Ukraine, it has not been possible to significantly change its status in the international division of labor. On the one hand, the raw material direction of Ukrainian exports is preserved, and competitive advantages in engineering and technological equipment are almost lost. A significant increase in exports of primary processing products leads not only to a gradual restriction of the activities of Ukrainian exporters in foreign markets, but also to an intensification of the escalation of international trade conflicts.
The tendency of orientation of Ukrainian imports to consumer goods, as well as the importation of technological equipment into the country, has increased, as a result of which Ukrainian commodity producers have fallen into difficult financial and economic situations.
In this regard, we believe that in order to improve the situation of domestic producers, it is necessary to phase out imports in those sectors of the economy where domestic producers with certain support can satisfy demand no worse than foreign ones and expand imports, first of all, of the equipment necessary for implementing joint strategic projects and programs focused on post-industrial technologies.
In this situation, the main thing is to find the optimal ratio of regulatory measures to solve these problems, to protect the strategic interests of the country. This is today one of the important tasks of foreign economic activity.
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tradoc_113459.pdf.
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