First, let's deal with Rosstatovskaya inflation.
Official inflation in Russia in the 2009 year, according to Rosstat, was 8,4%. But after all, Rosstat is always lying about inflation. Everyone knows that real inflation is three times the official one. Only how do they know?
Practically in any materials on the subject of personal finance there is a warning: “Do not forget to take inflation into account in your calculations and plans”. The Russian sources added: "And remember that the official inflation figures should be multiplied by at least two." Very interesting wording "we all know": it immediately turns off the brain. No one wants to admit that he is an ignoramus - "but I do not know." I admit. I tried to find the source of the statement about “real inflation”, but the maximum that I managed to find was the Russians ’Levada Center poll. According to these data, almost half of Russians believe that prices are rising twice as fast as official inflation. It would be interesting to know how many of this half make up shopping lists before going to the store and keep detailed personal records? And those who do not, as determined by inflation? By the eye? Oh well.
The official inflation figures can always be checked - the calculation method is open. Score data in Excel and count yourself. But nobody gave the calculation of “real inflation” - it is suggested to take a word. Three times more - and no objections!
First of all, you need to understand that in principle there is no indicator of “real inflation”. Inflation, contrary to the general opinion, is not at all identical to price increases. In terms of personal finance:
Inflation - increase the amount of money needed to maintain a constant standard of living.
Spend more than before, it means - inflation. Key here "Unchanged standard of living". If you bought sliced loaf for 9 rubles last month, and this went for bread with additives for 15 rubles, then this increase in expenses is not related to inflation.
Looking at the definition, it becomes immediately clear that the calculation of “real inflation” in the country is impossible, since Everyone has his own “unchanging standard of living”. You can only calculate the personal inflation rate of a particular person or the average for the country.
A couple of examples to illustrate (fictional numbers to calculate percentages without a calculator).
1. What is official inflation. The population of Moscow consists of three people: a pensioner, a student and a professor. The student travels every day to the university by metro, the retiree goes to visit the same metro (for example, to the same student), and the professor travels to work by car. A metro ticket cost 20 rubles, a liter of gasoline cost 30 rubles. Prices are rising: a ticket on the subway costs 25 rubles (+ 25%), a liter of gas costs 33 (+ 10%) rubles. Prices for everything else remained unchanged. The question is: what level of inflation will Rosstat publish? 17,5%. And now let's calculate “real inflation” by our definition: a pensioner - 0% (in Moscow, pensioners ride the subway for free), a student - 25%, a professor - 10%. Not a single person has increased the cost of spending did not coincide with the official inflation. Does it follow from this that Rosstat intentionally lies? What makes this difference? Due to the fact that consumer sets of people (living standards) consist of various services and goods. And if the set will be the same?
2. Inflation and rising prices. The population consists of two students who go to university on the subway. To the university from the subway have to get on the bus. One student lives near the subway, the second one has to get from the house to the subway by bus. A metro ticket cost 20 rubles, a bus ticket cost 25 rubles. Prices are rising: a ticket on the subway costs 21 ruble (+ 5%), a bus ticket costs 30 (+ 20%) rubles. Since the set of services for both students is the same, then the price increase for them will also be the same - 12,5%. Will inflation be the same for these two students? Check by definition.
First student expenses per day: metro 2 * 20 + bus 2 * 25 = 90 rubles. After the price increase: metro 2 * 21 + bus 2 * 30 = 102 ruble. Its inflation will be: 13,3%.
Second student expenses per day: metro 2 * 20 + bus 4 * 25 = 140 rubles. After the price increase: metro 2 * 21 + bus 4 * 30 = 162 ruble. Its inflation will be: 15,7%.
Official statistics again lying! The real inflation for each student was higher! Moreover, the inflation of two students is different, although the rise in prices was the same for them!
Here the difference is due to the different consumption patterns. Although both students use the same transportation services, the share of the bus in the costs of the second one is much higher, which means that their personal inflation is more affected by the price increase for the bus.
To summarize: the real inflation for each person is different, it depends on the set of consumption (list of goods and services) and on the structure of consumption (shares of various goods and services in human expenses).
Official inflation in Russia is considered to increase the cost of the consumer basket. I'm on 99% sure that if your spending structure coincides with the base basket, then your real inflation will coincide with the official one. If this is not the case, then look for a difference in the structure of your consumption.
Accordingly, the objectives of this article:
1) Carefully consider whether you can trust this indicator as the average salary.
2) Calculate inflation on food, utilities and non-food items.
3) Compare the growth rates of pensions and inflation rates.
Let's go in order.
The urgent question of whether or not it is possible to rely on the average values of wages, incomes, pensions or not will now be considered what is called “from and to”. Namely:
a) we will divide all people who receive a salary into 10-percentage groups by income level, the first group with the lowest wages, the tenth with the highest, from the fourth to the seventh, the “middle class”;
b) then we will look at the average wages within these 10% groups;
c) we will do our simple calculations using the same method as before, that is, in physical units. Today, such a unit will be the same “Set”, but with a richer quantitative content.
So here here are the data of Rosstat, and the average salary for 10-percentage groups of the population. True, there is one incomprehensible problem for me, there are no data for four years 1999, 2008, 2010 and 2012, but there is a 2013 year, but this is not easier because Rosstat has not yet posted data on prices for products and tariffs Housing for 2013 year. Therefore, we will calculate the values between years based on the arithmetic average of two digits:
1) arithmetic average from the average salary of a year to a missed and a year after; 2) is the average salary of the 10% group, multiplied by the percentage increase in the total average salary for the corresponding year.
For clarity, I present to you a summary table of average wages 10% groups by income level. Red color highlights calculated figures for the corresponding year. By the way, I sent the request to Rosstat for the missing numbers yesterday. As soon as the official data arrives, we will have the opportunity to compare them with what we did in one of my next publications.
To make a mistake in calculations will not work out in principle, since we have an upper limit in the form of data for 2008, 2011 and 2013 years, which the corresponding value of the previous year can not only overtake, but also greatly approximate, moreover, the arithmetic average wages 10% groups can not be much larger than the total average salary.
As we can see, the arithmetic average of the calculated years is no different from the numbers provided by Rosstat for other years.
Now we will create a new natural unit for salaries. It will consist of four parts;
In order not to “bathe” with price charts, I made for readers such a tablet with prices for goods and tariffs from 1999 to 2012. Convenient thing turned out, by the way. This is not demotivators to make and attach to the comments! Who understood, he understood.
Now it will not be difficult for us to calculate our salaries for each of the 10% groups separately in physical units and ultimately derive the growth rate for each of them.
Here is a graph of price increases for utility tariffs from a set.
And the schedule of growth of the cost of the remaining components of the “Set No. XXUMX”.
Now we will calculate the salaries of 10% groups in our unit. We will do this as follows, we will first deduct the cost of housing and communal services, and then we will divide the remaining amount by the amount of the remaining goods. The result is such a tablet. The number 0 means that the person "Went to minus" after payment of "communal".
Now let's take a closer look. Since there is no 1999 of the year in the Rosstat databases, we measure the ratio of the 2012 of the year to the 2000 for each group. Moreover, at the bottom of the table two lines are given for comparison: “The arithmetic average of the average wages of 10% groups” and “Average (total) wages”, the one that caused us so much controversy.
And what do we observe? The fastest of all, as much as in 22 more than once, the incomes of the poorest part of our population grew. In economics, this is called “Low base effect”because, due to this, the volume doubles quickly enough, but this, unfortunately, does not mean that we do not have poverty, it is, there is also poverty. In 1992, 33,5% of the population were below the poverty line, that is, they received incomes below the subsistence minimum. The next leap in poverty level followed the “default” of 1998 of the year. The gradual decline in the number of low-income groups began in the 2000 year. According to the latest data, by the year 2012 the poverty level has dropped to 11%.
As for the other groups, the salaries of the second 10% group grew more than four times slower. Further, the growth rate decreases, and the richer the group, the slower the growth.
The “middle class” is highlighted in red (please do not confuse with the well-known concept of the middle class in society). Revenues of 60% of the population grew fairly evenly and grew from 3 to 4 times, then for this group the average growth rate relative to 2000 was derived, it was 3,5 times. Immediately I draw your attention to the fact that about the same growth rate and the "average (total) wages," which, in my opinion, removes all the questions about the objectivity of the average. To those who doubt, I propose to recalculate all the years in the same way in order to determine the error. And that's not all: the average salary 80% of the population is about 19,5 thousands of rubles, and the spread of salaries is in the interval between 11 and 30 thousands, respectively, so, gentlemen, let's stop "Chew snot" and tell fairy tales “about a neighbor with a chicken and a hungry favorite, who according to statistics has to be half a hen, or post pictures with something like this:
It can be concluded that average wages or incomes can be used as a parameter to calculate real wage growth, that is, the average does not mean that the majority of the population receives such an amount, but only shows how much or how much our income has increased in comparison with in any other year as a percentage or share.
For those who have forgotten, misunderstood or read my articles for the first time, let me remind you that since we carried out calculations based on real prices for each specific year, you should not leave angry messages like the one sent by the user in the comments hitech
“Where are the inflation statistics? She eats all your laudatory remarks on time. "
Now let's talk separately about inflation. Now we already have on hand a price for "Set # XXUMX" in real prices by year, and it does not cost us to calculate inflation for each of the years, so we do, but for greater clarity, we divide it into three parts: 1) food inflation; 2) housing and utility rates inflation; 3) general inflation "Set No. 3"which includes the first two parameters plus transportation costs and non-food inflation.
So, we look.
As can be seen from the graphs, the real increase in prices for everything and everyone was just at the beginning of 00-x, and not now, as many have shown on forum sites with foaming at the mouth, and this equally applies to all areas, including Housing and communal services. Another question is how decent those HOAs that serve us and are directly related to our receipts for payment. During my student years, I changed the order of ten to fifteen rented apartments, and I was not lucky a couple of times, I was on the price-quality ratio, but in most cases the price for using the benefits of civilization was not too high, but since the mess in the housing and utilities sector is truly worthy brutal critics, and all, from the municipalities to the relevant federal agencies, I will not use in the comments "This is a kid-contempt, pronounced solely after spitting through his teeth and curling his mouth;" And you, damn it, prove it! "have agreed Normal?
Now I propose to combine the terms of "Set No. XXUMX" with the goods remaining at my disposal, and then calculate the average inflation of a new set. There we will add clothes and shoes. Here is a price tag.
And now we will construct the schedule.
The situation no longer seems so unstable, in fact, comments are superfluous, we have been slowly but surely mowing inflation for ten years now, and have reduced it from 21% in 2000 to 5,5 in 2012, the same applies to food (from 50% to 10% ) and utilities (from 63% in 2001 to 9-10% in 2012).
And now the main graph of this entire article, namely the ratio of inflation, wage growth and pensions. We will equate them to the “3“ Set Inflation ”, since it is not diluted with things that we buy less often than once a month.
or even a year.
As can be seen from this graph, the government managed with varying success to keep the growth of pensions and wages higher than the rate of inflation. The graph clearly shows the crisis year 2008 and 2009, when, during financial chaos, Russia was the only one in the world raising pensions, while wage growth sank heavily, and most likely also stagnated for a long time. Also on the graph it is clearly seen that since 2001, the growth rate of wages goes at a level that compensates for inflation, slightly exceeding it.
As for the writers, who at every corner shout about the fact that officials lie about inflation in 6-10%, and she, in fact, hangs at the level of 25-30%, then in January 2013 of the year Rosstat confirms inflation in 6,6% in 2012 year. Our 2012 indicator of the year fully coincides with the official release of the department.
As you can see, in the 2011 year, according to our calculations, inflation exceeded the official level by 4% and on 3% the same parameter for 2010 year, for the remaining years the discrepancy is from 1-3%. In any case, the magnitude of inflation today is not as great as many ardently prove on the fingers, but it must be admitted that inflation rates also differ from region to region. In addition to this, the prices of various goods are also growing unevenly, which gives tremendous opportunities for all-propals to speculate on this topic and to compile various demotivators. True, Yarosvet?
1) The average salary level is an objective indicator for estimating the general growth of household income.
2) Over the period of 1999-2012, the growth of wages and pensions was generally higher than the average inflation rate of food (separately) and utilities (separately), except for the period 1999-2005, where the inflation of utility tariffs was significantly higher.
3) For the entire period from 1999-2012, the growth of pensions and wages did not fall below the average inflation rate (with the exception of 2009 for wages).
4) Official data of agencies on average annual inflation do not significantly differ from inflation in a single food and housing area.
5) The real growth of salaries in the Russian Federation in 2012 year relative to 2000 for 80% of the working population was 3-4 times, for 20% of people with the lowest earnings this growth was from 5 to 20 times.
6) In the Russian Federation, there is a noticeable stratification of the population by income, since the gap between the two 10% groups with the highest wages and the average “middle class” salary is 2,5 and 5 times, respectively.
7) The increase in pensions over the period from 1999 to 2012 was approximately 5,5 and 4,5 times with and without non-food items, respectively.
Thank you for attention.
PS Waiting for constructive comments and advice.