Iran and Afghanistan: Karzai wants to sit on two chairs?
In early December, media reported that the presidents of Afghanistan and Iran intend to sign an agreement on friendship and long-term cooperation. Moreover, compared with the August agreement between the two countries, which dealt primarily with security aspects, the new agreement will affect security, politics, economics, and culture. On December 9, it became known that Hassan Rouhani and Hamid Karzai are historical agreement signed.
According to Iranian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Marzieh Afham, "during Karzai’s visit to Tehran, a comprehensive agreement was signed on cooperation in the security sphere, as well as in the political, economic, social and cultural fields."
At a meeting with the President of Afghanistan, Hassan Rouhani said that Iran opposes the deployment of any foreign troops in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. According to him, “foreign forces must leave the region, and responsibility for the security of Afghanistan must be transferred into the hands of the people of this country.”
Meanwhile, the White House is trying to convince Karzai to sign an agreement on security cooperation. Obama needs this in order for the American military contingent and partly ISAF troops to remain in Afghan territory after 2014. It is already clear to all now that Obama is not going to withdraw his entire contingent.
But Karzai is no longer the same. Feeling the weakness of the Obama administration and the closeness of the Taliban, he dodges as he can. In addition to law-making in the field of Shari'a, Karzai became interested in geopolitical confrontation with America: he said that the US should stop all military operations affecting Afghan civilians (US military should stop invading the homes of Afghan citizens), as well as releasing Afghan prisoners of Guantanamo prison. Obama, who has failed to close the infamous torture prison, in response scares Karzai with the suspension of financial assistance. However, Obama himself probably doesn’t believe in the latter: a large American business is involved in the application of this aid, and the US president cannot simply reduce or freeze aid. One way or another, Karzai does not sign the Obama pact on security.
It has come to the point that the head of the Afghan state told Washington: let this paper be signed by my successor as president.
Having learned about these words, the funny blunder was made by the US Secretary of State. He wished "Karzai or his successor to sign the agreement before the end of the year." Kerry did not make a reservation, did not let it slip - you will not understand. Of course, Karzai is an American puppet, the Taliban are right here, but the elections in Afghanistan are still scheduled for next year, and not for the end of this year. Probably, the State Department already knows who will be Karzai's successor ...
Today, the number of US military contingent in Afghanistan is 47 thousand people. After 2014, Obama expects to leave at least 8 thousand soldiers in the country. Officially, these people will continue to train the armed forces of Afghanistan, as well as assist them in operations.
During the protracted NATO "operation" in Afghanistan, more than two thousand American soldiers died, about a thousand others were killed by other NATO member states and participating in the "fight against terrorism." As for the killed civilians of Afghanistan, the Americans do not consider them. The media called a terrible number of about twenty thousand people. This is the price of the mistake the Afghans paid for the NATO invasion. Karzai knows what to focus on in his critical statements. However, it is incorrect to write off these victims entirely on the ISAF. Many Afghans died from the Taliban.
Let's go back to Iran.
IRI-Afghanistan cooperation, in many respects contrary to US policy, was analyzed by an expert "Strategic Culture Foundation" Nikolai Bobkin.
According to him, Kabul understands that Iran seeks to build barriers for the United States and the West, creating the prerequisites for strengthening its own influence in the region. At present, the analyst recalls, there are six television channels and fifteen radio stations for Iranian money in Afghanistan. In parallel, Tehran supports pro-Iranian anti-government rebel groups in various parts of the country. The DRA government is talking about Tehran’s failure to implement a strategic cooperation agreement. And in a sense, the Iranian policy suits the Taliban, urging Karzai to abandon the agreement with the Americans ...
According to the expert, the Taliban may well rely on the Iranian shoulder to achieve their goals. It is important for Iran to dominate only among the Shiites of Afghanistan (approximately 15% of the country's population). Tehran has traditionally sought to have a strong position in the areas of residence of the Tajik ethnic group.
At the same time, Iran has a trump card. He, the analyst notes, can significantly increase the number of his supporters in Afghanistan by forcibly returning Afghan refugees. More than 3 million people have accumulated in Iran last year, almost half of them are illegal.
The expert reminds that Tehran is the main donor of Herat. This is one of the major provinces of Afghanistan, bordering Iran. Most of the population there are Shiites. During the years of the former civil war, the inhabitants of the province resisted the Taliban. Iranian investments in the economy of Herat allowed to increase the volume of bilateral border trade to almost 2 billion dollars.
Finally, Iran is paying attention and interaction with the authorities of the neighboring Afghan provinces in the fight against drug trafficking.
The effectiveness of Iran’s struggle against drug trafficking is high, the analyst notes. Russian law enforcement agencies, for example, remove only about 4% of the opium group's heroin and narcotics from the country, and Iran withdraws about 33%. Iran is the world leader in seized drugs. Iran accounts for 80% of opium and 40% of morphine seized worldwide.
Not surprisingly, we add on our own that the issue of combating drug trafficking is seriously worrying Iran. According to the UN, currently in Afghanistan, where, under the Americans, drug production has increased significantly, up to 90% of opiates in the world are produced. Afghanistan has practically become a poppy monopoly!
If in this country 2012% of opium poppies in the world were produced in 80 and the area under crops was significantly expanded, in 2013, the United Nations already reported 90% of Afghan opium poppy on the planet. What will happen next year? Ninety five, one hundred percent? Achieving such record-breaking "indicators" is simply unthinkable without the collusion and even the participation of those American military who zealously care about the "security" of either Afghanistan or their own homeland. In fact, they care about filling their own pockets.
At the same time, the US National Intelligence Agency sees in Afghan drug trafficking the main threat to residents of American cities. This was stated in the report of the Office of 12 March 2013, signed by director James R. Clapper. But these are only words, propaganda, calculated on the ears of the closest inhabitants.
Today H. Karzai has to balance between the Taliban and the United States. He really needs an ally like Iran, he needs some strength that could be opposed to the Taliban. Karzai also needs political points. Anti-American sentiment is strong in Afghan society, and the president, who may well have been waiting for Najibullah’s fate since about the middle of 2014, understands this. Understands - and tries to sit on two chairs.
On the one hand, he signs documents with Shiite Iran, on the other, he curtsies the Taliban radicals.
Recently, the Afghan government began exploring the possibility of restoring the death penalty by stoning in case of adultery. This may mean a return to the punishments that were practiced under the Taliban, warns Human Rights Watch. He writes about it BFM.ru with reference to France Press.
A representative of the Ministry of Justice confirmed that the ministry is studying the punishments for adultery, theft and drinking in accordance with Sharia law.
Human Rights Watch is shocked that the Karzai administration has gathered to reinstate a similar death penalty twelve years after the fall of the Taliban regime.
Well, from where, let's ask, “shock”? .. Karzai does not have long to rule in the country, and the American contingent will either completely leave Afghanistan, or leave a small part of the servicemen there. Karzai really doesn’t want to repeat the fate of Najibullah, who was killed by the Taliban in September 1996 (“We killed him because he was the murderer of our people”), that’s why in the last months of his reign the president started building Sharia.
Hamid Karzai is in a hurry to please both the bearded men and Tehran. As for America, it doesn’t have to like her anymore: Washington has weakened, and almost fawns on itself before the Taliban, now before Iran (not to mention Russia). In addition, eight thousand soldiers - a drop in the ocean. They cannot control Afghanistan. Implement corruption projects for the construction and creation of infrastructure, covered by the Pentagon, look after the poppy fields - this is yes, but to guarantee security in the country - no. Therefore, the agreement with the Americans Karzai not only does not interest, but also repels. He needs a new force (Iran) that would cover his ass. Or the old force ("Taliban"), which would cease to call this ass American puppet.
According to Iranian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Marzieh Afham, "during Karzai’s visit to Tehran, a comprehensive agreement was signed on cooperation in the security sphere, as well as in the political, economic, social and cultural fields."
At a meeting with the President of Afghanistan, Hassan Rouhani said that Iran opposes the deployment of any foreign troops in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. According to him, “foreign forces must leave the region, and responsibility for the security of Afghanistan must be transferred into the hands of the people of this country.”
Meanwhile, the White House is trying to convince Karzai to sign an agreement on security cooperation. Obama needs this in order for the American military contingent and partly ISAF troops to remain in Afghan territory after 2014. It is already clear to all now that Obama is not going to withdraw his entire contingent.
But Karzai is no longer the same. Feeling the weakness of the Obama administration and the closeness of the Taliban, he dodges as he can. In addition to law-making in the field of Shari'a, Karzai became interested in geopolitical confrontation with America: he said that the US should stop all military operations affecting Afghan civilians (US military should stop invading the homes of Afghan citizens), as well as releasing Afghan prisoners of Guantanamo prison. Obama, who has failed to close the infamous torture prison, in response scares Karzai with the suspension of financial assistance. However, Obama himself probably doesn’t believe in the latter: a large American business is involved in the application of this aid, and the US president cannot simply reduce or freeze aid. One way or another, Karzai does not sign the Obama pact on security.
It has come to the point that the head of the Afghan state told Washington: let this paper be signed by my successor as president.
Having learned about these words, the funny blunder was made by the US Secretary of State. He wished "Karzai or his successor to sign the agreement before the end of the year." Kerry did not make a reservation, did not let it slip - you will not understand. Of course, Karzai is an American puppet, the Taliban are right here, but the elections in Afghanistan are still scheduled for next year, and not for the end of this year. Probably, the State Department already knows who will be Karzai's successor ...
Today, the number of US military contingent in Afghanistan is 47 thousand people. After 2014, Obama expects to leave at least 8 thousand soldiers in the country. Officially, these people will continue to train the armed forces of Afghanistan, as well as assist them in operations.
During the protracted NATO "operation" in Afghanistan, more than two thousand American soldiers died, about a thousand others were killed by other NATO member states and participating in the "fight against terrorism." As for the killed civilians of Afghanistan, the Americans do not consider them. The media called a terrible number of about twenty thousand people. This is the price of the mistake the Afghans paid for the NATO invasion. Karzai knows what to focus on in his critical statements. However, it is incorrect to write off these victims entirely on the ISAF. Many Afghans died from the Taliban.
Let's go back to Iran.
IRI-Afghanistan cooperation, in many respects contrary to US policy, was analyzed by an expert "Strategic Culture Foundation" Nikolai Bobkin.
According to him, Kabul understands that Iran seeks to build barriers for the United States and the West, creating the prerequisites for strengthening its own influence in the region. At present, the analyst recalls, there are six television channels and fifteen radio stations for Iranian money in Afghanistan. In parallel, Tehran supports pro-Iranian anti-government rebel groups in various parts of the country. The DRA government is talking about Tehran’s failure to implement a strategic cooperation agreement. And in a sense, the Iranian policy suits the Taliban, urging Karzai to abandon the agreement with the Americans ...
According to the expert, the Taliban may well rely on the Iranian shoulder to achieve their goals. It is important for Iran to dominate only among the Shiites of Afghanistan (approximately 15% of the country's population). Tehran has traditionally sought to have a strong position in the areas of residence of the Tajik ethnic group.
At the same time, Iran has a trump card. He, the analyst notes, can significantly increase the number of his supporters in Afghanistan by forcibly returning Afghan refugees. More than 3 million people have accumulated in Iran last year, almost half of them are illegal.
The expert reminds that Tehran is the main donor of Herat. This is one of the major provinces of Afghanistan, bordering Iran. Most of the population there are Shiites. During the years of the former civil war, the inhabitants of the province resisted the Taliban. Iranian investments in the economy of Herat allowed to increase the volume of bilateral border trade to almost 2 billion dollars.
Finally, Iran is paying attention and interaction with the authorities of the neighboring Afghan provinces in the fight against drug trafficking.
The effectiveness of Iran’s struggle against drug trafficking is high, the analyst notes. Russian law enforcement agencies, for example, remove only about 4% of the opium group's heroin and narcotics from the country, and Iran withdraws about 33%. Iran is the world leader in seized drugs. Iran accounts for 80% of opium and 40% of morphine seized worldwide.
Not surprisingly, we add on our own that the issue of combating drug trafficking is seriously worrying Iran. According to the UN, currently in Afghanistan, where, under the Americans, drug production has increased significantly, up to 90% of opiates in the world are produced. Afghanistan has practically become a poppy monopoly!
If in this country 2012% of opium poppies in the world were produced in 80 and the area under crops was significantly expanded, in 2013, the United Nations already reported 90% of Afghan opium poppy on the planet. What will happen next year? Ninety five, one hundred percent? Achieving such record-breaking "indicators" is simply unthinkable without the collusion and even the participation of those American military who zealously care about the "security" of either Afghanistan or their own homeland. In fact, they care about filling their own pockets.
At the same time, the US National Intelligence Agency sees in Afghan drug trafficking the main threat to residents of American cities. This was stated in the report of the Office of 12 March 2013, signed by director James R. Clapper. But these are only words, propaganda, calculated on the ears of the closest inhabitants.
Today H. Karzai has to balance between the Taliban and the United States. He really needs an ally like Iran, he needs some strength that could be opposed to the Taliban. Karzai also needs political points. Anti-American sentiment is strong in Afghan society, and the president, who may well have been waiting for Najibullah’s fate since about the middle of 2014, understands this. Understands - and tries to sit on two chairs.
On the one hand, he signs documents with Shiite Iran, on the other, he curtsies the Taliban radicals.
Recently, the Afghan government began exploring the possibility of restoring the death penalty by stoning in case of adultery. This may mean a return to the punishments that were practiced under the Taliban, warns Human Rights Watch. He writes about it BFM.ru with reference to France Press.
A representative of the Ministry of Justice confirmed that the ministry is studying the punishments for adultery, theft and drinking in accordance with Sharia law.
Human Rights Watch is shocked that the Karzai administration has gathered to reinstate a similar death penalty twelve years after the fall of the Taliban regime.
Well, from where, let's ask, “shock”? .. Karzai does not have long to rule in the country, and the American contingent will either completely leave Afghanistan, or leave a small part of the servicemen there. Karzai really doesn’t want to repeat the fate of Najibullah, who was killed by the Taliban in September 1996 (“We killed him because he was the murderer of our people”), that’s why in the last months of his reign the president started building Sharia.
Hamid Karzai is in a hurry to please both the bearded men and Tehran. As for America, it doesn’t have to like her anymore: Washington has weakened, and almost fawns on itself before the Taliban, now before Iran (not to mention Russia). In addition, eight thousand soldiers - a drop in the ocean. They cannot control Afghanistan. Implement corruption projects for the construction and creation of infrastructure, covered by the Pentagon, look after the poppy fields - this is yes, but to guarantee security in the country - no. Therefore, the agreement with the Americans Karzai not only does not interest, but also repels. He needs a new force (Iran) that would cover his ass. Or the old force ("Taliban"), which would cease to call this ass American puppet.
Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru
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