Unfortunately, contrary to popular belief about the “hand of Moscow”, for many years Russia showed complete indifference to such an important issue for our civilization and people as the fate of tens of millions of Russians (Ruses) who ended up outside the single state after the 1991 catastrophe. Moscow limited itself to the economic support of the Ukrainian regimes, which drifted to the west, but due to civilizational, historical, cultural and economic ties could not break sharply with Russia. The last meeting of Vladimir Putin and Viktor Yanukovych continued this course. Putin decided to once again economically support the degrading Ukrainian regime.
In principle, the Russian president can be understood. This is a tactical move made to gain time. Ukrainian "abscess" freeze. Like, then we'll see what to do. Strategically, the problem is not solved. At the same time, it is impossible to allow a social and political explosion in Ukraine. As already noted in the first part of the article, parts of the Western elites benefit from the “Yugoslav” (“Syrian”) scenario in Ukraine. Civil confrontation, gangs of brutal neo-Nazis, Crimean jihadists, thousands dead, hundreds of thousands of refugees. Involvement of Russia, the European Union, Turkey, NATO and the United States in the conflict. Some Western leaders even instigate the Ukrainian opposition: they say, we will not leave in trouble. Thus, the director of the NATO office in Ukraine, Marcin Kozhiel, said that Ukraine could rely on the support of NATO in the event of an attack on its sovereignty and territorial integrity. According to him, “a sovereign Ukraine that meets fully democratic requirements is the key to further cooperation with NATO,” and Kiev can count on the support of the North Atlantic Alliance.
The wing of the “hawks” in the American elite is traditionally ready to solve all problems by stirring up conflicts and wars in various parts of the planet. The war in Ukraine will solve a number of important tasks. The United States will immediately kill two birds with one stone - they will hit the European Union, which does not need a big war in Europe, and in Russia. Therefore, the likelihood of a military conflict exists, it can not be dismissed. Apparently, they are ready for the military scenario in Romania and Poland - the loyal American satellites in Eastern Europe. Bucharest is implementing a plan to create "Greater Romania" by absorbing Moldavia and Transnistria, and also claims to be part of Ukrainian territory. Romania and Poland are active participants in the US missile defense program. Washington based on the so-called. The “Eastern European Partnership” creates a buffer between Germany and Russia and a “belt of instability” - a zone of controlled chaos. Poland, as always, stands on the edge of the struggle with Russia. Playing on the complex of the failed Polish empire, Washington pushes Warsaw to reanimate the idea of the Commonwealth, "Greater Poland" from sea to sea. For this, it is necessary to devour a part of the Baltic states and a significant part of today's Ukraine.
Here it should be noted immediately two interesting facts. First, the Ukrainian armed forces “optimized” to such an extent that they lost almost all of the significant Soviet military legacy. New models of military equipment are rare and do not play any role. Moreover, the army continues to "reform", apparently, plan to reduce it to the parade-security brigade. All this is justified by European trends. Plus, we must not forget the money question: Kiev simply has no money, they steal too much. Secondly, while the overwhelming majority of the European armies reduce their offensive-defensive potential, reduce heavy weapons, turning the armed forces into punitive-expeditionary corps, Poland, on the contrary, increases the strength of its armed forces.
Warsaw, despite the worsening economic situation in Poland and throughout Europe, adopted the new military-political doctrine of the country - Polish Fangs. Within the framework of this program, over the next 10 years, the Poles will spend on armaments a record amount for this country - more than $ 45 billion. As part of this strategy, they plan to: equip F-16 aircraft with new missiles; to develop the Coastal Missile Division, special forces; equip the army with combat drones - in November, the delivery of 12 Fly Eye drones was completed, special forces and artillery regiments received them (in total they plan to purchase up to 50 UAVs similar to Fly Eye), in total I plan to buy up to 2020 drones by 200; development of mobility and firepower of the ground forces - purchase tanks German-made Leopard 2, 886 cross-country vehicles, 307 Rosomak armored modular vehicles manufactured by the national company WZMS, purchase of 155-mm Krab self-propelled howitzers and 120-mm Rak self-propelled mortars, modernization of the Bergepanzer 2 armored repair and recovery vehicles; development of the military industry, consolidation of a disparate military industry under one wing is being carried out - the Polish Armaments Group is being created, which will include WZMS, HSW, Polish Defense Holding, as well as other small manufacturers. In addition, Poland participates in the US missile defense program and announced the creation of a national missile defense system. Warsaw plans to upgrade the air defense and missile defense system by 2022 by purchasing short- and medium-range missiles, new radars. The national missile defense program Wisla (Wisla) is estimated at $ 8,4 billion and is the largest national arms program. From 2017, the armed forces should begin to receive batteries of Vistula medium-range missiles, Narev short-range missiles, Poprad self-propelled systems, Pilitsa missile and artillery systems, Perun launchers and missiles. More than 30 units of the Sola and Bystra radar will also be delivered. The bet is on mobile systems that can protect the country from short- and medium-range missiles. Poland is clearly preparing for war.
It must be said that the scenario of the collapse of Ukraine at the level of fantasies (that is, without real activity in this direction) is also supported by part of the patriotic public of Russia. On the one hand, the option is logical. Ukraine is divided roughly on the line of the Dnieper. Russia is moving away, depending on the position of Moscow, formally with the inclusion of Russia, or de facto, like Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Eastern Ukraine and the Crimea. It is possible that the south of Ukraine - with Odessa, Nikolaev and Kherson - will also go under the wing of Russia. The depressive, economically backward and Russophobic West is entering the sphere of influence of the European Union, or rather, the United States. It is obvious that Galicia will join the ranks of the US satellites in Eastern Europe. The fate of Central Ukraine is still unknown. Perhaps it will remain as a kind of buffer between East and West, or it will be divided.
The section of Ukraine has its advantages. Moscow will receive the most industrialized regions, the “Crimean Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier”, a population not affected by Russophobic sentiment. However, strategically, such a move is dangerous and plays into the hands of the enemies of Russian civilization. First, it is the implementation of the enemy scenario for the further fragmentation and absorption of Russian civilization. We will help with our own hands to destroy Ukraine, we will give Galicia and Central Ukraine to the enemy. Secondly, NATO in the east will approach Moscow and other Russian centers even closer. The concept of "lightning war" has not been canceled. She just changed the name - Fast Global Impact (BSU). In addition, the thesis that the “Westerners” (Western Rus, whose consciousness is completely affected by Western programs) should be given to Europe is erroneous. With appropriate work, propaganda, everything can be changed. Consciousness of people is changing rapidly. Psycho and information technology for this is. One should not even carry out mass repressions, it is enough to neutralize several thousand outright enemies (the “fifth column”) and send hopeless ideological fools.
Therefore, Putin’s last steps are quite reasonable. He decided to pull time. The situation in the world is changing very quickly, after a year or two of cards may lie differently. For example, the United States itself is very unstable, and suspicious processes are going on in China, not to mention the already “stable unstable” Western Europe. It is quite possible that after a while London will be busy with the process of secession of Scotland, Washington will have to crush the revolt of the indignant population, Beijing will be carried away by "perestroika". In such a situation, with a new exacerbation in Ukraine - and it is inevitable, since the cancer did not cure, but only gave the patient pain medication (money) - Moscow will be able to resolve the issue itself. A scenario is possible when in the medium or long-term perspective it will be enough to send troops, which for the most part will meet with flowers, and restore the Soviet border. Naturally, people in the world will be shouted, they will be threatened, but they will not be able to do anything, since all attention will be focused on internal processes. The right of force has not been canceled.
The rotting Kiev regime was given a reprieve. Vladimir Putin and Viktor Yanukovych held the sixth meeting of the Russian-Ukrainian Interstate Commission in the Kremlin and talked face to face. It should be noted that this year the heads of Russia and Ukraine are already meeting for the eighth time. This indicates the intensification of Moscow's policy towards Ukraine. Russia is still the main trading partner of Ukraine, the turnover in 2012 amounted to 45 billion US dollars. However, in recent years there has been a process of reducing trade. So, in January-October 2013, the volume of mutual trade decreased by 14,5% compared to the same period in 2012 - up to 32,2 billion dollars. Russia's exports decreased by 16,2% and amounted to 19 billion dollars, while imports fell by 11,9%, amounting to 13,2 billion dollars. According to the President of the Russian Federation, it is necessary "to take energetic actions not only to return to the level of previous years, but also to create conditions for moving forward." Fortunately, there are all conditions in the field of energy, engineering, space, aviation and shipbuilding.
Documents were signed on the implementation of state support measures for the resumption of mass production of An-124 family aircraft with D-18T engines; agreement on joint work on the organization of the construction of the passage through the Kerch Strait; to enhance cooperation in the field of shipbuilding and in the field of the rocket and space industry; agreement on the exchange of information in the field of nuclear and radiation safety, etc. Putin also said that Russia is ready to consider the possibility of using the defense capacities of the Ukrainian economy for the needs of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. The relevant proposals of the Ministry of Defense of the two countries have already been prepared. Yanukovych also reported on specific solutions for the implementation of joint projects: financing the construction of the third and fourth power units of the Khmelnitsky NPP and the creation of jointly mass production of the An-70 aircraft.
The main outcome of Yanukovych’s trip to Moscow was a reduction in gas prices and investments in the amount of 15 billion dollars. Russia made a big concession and lowered the gas price for Ukraine by a third. Now Naftogaz of Ukraine will buy Russian gas at a price of 268,5 dollars per thousand cubic meters. Previously, this price was equal to 400 dollars. Gazprom and Naftogaz have already signed a corresponding agreement. According to Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine Viktor Boyko, the new price for Russian gas for Ukraine will be valid until the 2019 year. Moreover, the Ukrainian authorities still this is not enough. Ukrainian Energy Minister Edward Stavitsky said that Kiev is counting on a further reduction in the price of Russian gas from Gazprom.
In addition, the Russian government will place in the securities of Ukraine 15 billion dollars from the reserves of the National Wealth Fund. I must say that this amount is comparable to the amount of funds that the NWF allocates for Russian infrastructure projects. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov noted that Russia will place 15 billion dollars in Ukraine's sovereign Eurobonds in 2013 and 2014. Russia already within a week will buy out two-year eurobonds of Ukraine in the amount of 3 billion dollars. This money will allow you to pay debts and hold out to Kiev in the next two years before the presidential election. In response, Yanukovych, in the course of implementing joint venture projects, is ready to let Russia approach strategic facilities.
At the same time, the Kremlin reaffirmed its position on non-interference in the internal affairs of Ukraine. Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov said that the Russian Federation is interested in economic cooperation, but adheres to a firm principle: “a principled position of non-intervention”. Vladimir Putin said that during the meeting of the Interstate Commission, the issue of Ukraine’s accession to the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan was not discussed. Earlier in Russia have repeatedly stated that the decision of Kiev in relation to the European Union is an internal affair of Ukraine. Thus, First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, commenting on the Russian position on the situation around Ukraine during a trip to the United States, said that Ukraine will determine its own status. Russia will support any decision. The same was said by the Russian ambassador to Ukraine, Mikhail Zurabov.
Thus, Moscow at the same time economically supports the Ukrainian authorities, giving them the opportunity to hold on for some time, and still adheres to the “toothless” foreign policy, considering Ukraine to be a sovereign country and not raising the issue of a divided Russian nation. Although the actions of European and American representatives in Ukraine raise the question of the independence of Ukraine questioned.
The unwiseness of such a policy of Moscow has already been noted by many analysts and politicians. While the European Union, the United States and NATO and their vassals exert strong political pressure on Kiev, are actively working across all channels, recruiting supporters, Moscow is still a kind of “donor” for Kiev, allowing it to “sit on two chairs” . In particular, the leader of the Communist Party criticized the work of Russia's ambassador to Ukraine, Mikhail Zurabov (he is the ex-minister of health). The Russian embassy in Kiev is working very poorly, but Zurabov is almost inaudible and not visible. According to the head of the Foundation for Effective Politics Gleb Pavlovsky, the Ukrainian vector of Russian politics in the past year was simply “swamped”. The Russian Embassy, and therefore the Foreign Ministry, could not even organize a normal monitoring of the Ukrainian events over the past year. Neither the Foreign Ministry, nor the Kremlin have ever shaped Russia's position, although Yanukovych’s policy of signing an agreement with the EU was not a secret. The work on the formation of pro-Russian public opinion in Ukraine failed. It is necessary to work with our current and potential allies, but the situation in this area is catastrophic. More time and effort was spent on fruitless contacts with opponents of rapprochement between Russia and Ukraine, like Klitschko.
Russian political scientist Yevgeny Minchenko also said the indistinct and unsuccessful position of Moscow on the events in Kiev, which makes the rapprochement between Ukraine and the EU inevitable. The political analyst believes that “a significant part of the oligarchs would have arranged Vitali Klitschko as the president’s figure. Accordingly, they, I think, are playing a game with the Americans and with a part of European elites. In this sense, Russia is somewhere on the sidelines. ” And “an attempt now somehow to flood the situation in the country with money from Russia” will also not lead to success. They will take the money, but the course towards European integration will continue, this is an objective process, in terms of the venality and anti-popular nature of the Ukrainian “elite”.
The Ukrainian opposition reacted predictably to Yanukovych’s visit to Moscow. The leader of the political association "UDAR" Vitali Klitschko accused the Ukrainian president of receiving investments from the Russian Federation on the security of strategic objects and called him to the "ring". Klitschko demanded specific information about the agreements in Moscow. Oleg Tyagnibok, chairman of the All-Ukrainian Svoboda Association, called the agreements signed in Moscow “shameful” and noted that Yanukovych is giving Ukrainians to the “slavery” of Russia and accused him of being a traitor. The leader of Batkivshchyna, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, warned that not a single document contrary to the rapprochement between Ukraine and the EU would pass, they would be blocked by oppositional deputies in the parliament. In addition, the opposition demanded to reduce tariffs for housing and communal services, gas for the population by 30%.
Washington responded. The Moscow-Kiev agreement on investment and gas prices does not solve the problem of protests in Ukraine, White House spokesman Jay Carney said. Thus, the Ukrainian opposition and the United States are united in the fact that the standoff will continue.
Thus, Moscow made unprecedented concessions to Kiev in order to “freeze” the development of the situation in Ukraine according to a negative scenario. At the same time, Moscow still did not assume responsibility for solving the problem of restoring the unity of Russia and the super-ethnos of the Rus, divided by the criminal conspiracy of 1991 of the year. The new agreement between Moscow and Kiev contradicts the entire previous Russian economic policy, when Gazprom has been strangling Ukraine with high gas prices in recent years, showing that it’s time to end the “celebration of life” at the expense of Russia. Moreover, Moscow went to the issuance of funds to Ukraine from the National Welfare Fund. Until now, the Russian authorities have been extremely conservative about the waste of oil and gas reserves, including the development of Russian infrastructure, saying that they should be saved in case of a collapse in world energy prices. Only in the middle of 2013, part of the funds of the National Welfare Fund agreed to spend on large-scale infrastructure projects, such as the modernization of Transsib and BAM, the automobile ring road in the Moscow region. NWF did not want to spend on Russia, not to mention other countries. And then this turn. Russia postponed the inevitable collapse of the Ukrainian economy and, accordingly, a complete political destabilization of the situation in the country. Now the move is for the Ukrainian opposition and its foreign and domestic (oligarchs) sponsors.