Russia intensifies amid geopolitical events ("Stratfor", USA)
The first three months of 2011 were marked by a uniform flow of geopolitically significant events. A Tunisian young man named Mohammed Bouazizi, protesting against corruption and government oppression in Tunisia, set fire to not only 17 himself in December, he set fire to the whole region. Soon after, Tunisia and Egypt were able to observe the collapse of the power of their long-time rulers. Libya has actually slipped into civil war, and the way out of it has not yet been determined. On Monday, almost exactly three months after the self-immolation of Bouazizi, the Saudi Gulf Cooperation Council-led forces of the Gulf Cooperation Council entered the dwarf island state of Bahrain to prevent Iran from using the anti-government demonstrations there to their advantage. The unrest in the region continues, events occur almost daily in North Africa and the Middle East. And 11 in March, the terrible earthquake in Japan in Tohoku literally shook the third largest economy in the world and caused the most serious nuclear incident since the Chernobyl disaster of the year 1986.Against the background of all this global fright and stupor, Russia is the only power that has the luxury of summing up in relative comfort. Russia has no reason to fear revolutionary activity in the Middle Eastern style. Her leadership is genuinely popular at home and is almost guaranteed to be immune from popular uprisings, at least for the time being. Russia is not involved in any war in the Middle East, in contrast to the United States, which are involved in two wars and are trying in every way to avoid the third - in Libya. Russia can not be afraid of the exodus of refugees from North Africa and the corresponding influx of migrants to its borders, which Europe fears. Even a nuclear incident in Japan does not seem to have a negative impact on Russia, since the prevailing winds blow radiation into the Pacific Ocean, away from the eastern Russian city of Vladivostok.
In fact, Russia may be the country that will benefit from the various disasters of 2011. First, the general instability in the Middle East pushed oil prices up 18,5%. As the world's second-largest oil exporter, and also as a non-OPEC-free country, Russia is gaining tangible benefits - additional profits from rising oil prices go straight into the Kremlin's swelling suitcases as such a welcome addition after the severe economic recession of 2009. Second, the Libyan riots cut off 11 billion cubic meters of natural gas supplies through the Greenstream gas pipeline linking Libya to Italy, forcing Europe's third-largest natural gas consumer to turn towards Russia to compensate for the shortfall. Likewise, the difficult situation at nuclear power plants in Japan has forced Tokyo to turn to Russia with a request for emergency additional supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for the country's gas power plants.
But the most beneficial of all events for Russia may be the psychological effect that the situation at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (Fukushima Daiichi) has had on the Western Europe. The German government announced on Tuesday that it is closing seven nuclear reactors for three months, and will reconsider the future of German nuclear power. The looming Italian referendum on the decision of the government to defrost the construction of nuclear reactors is now almost guaranteed to fail. Criticism of the nuclear energy sector has swept across the continent, against the background of which the energy ministers of the European Union countries on Tuesday decided to subject EU nuclear reactors to a series of stress tests.
Europe’s hydropower capabilities are being used at full capacity, and coal-fired power plants are considered to be inconsistent with the European trend aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Because of this, renewable energy sources, which are slowly moving upward, winning an increasing share of total electricity production, as well as nuclear power and natural gas, which is considered a much cleaner fossil fuel than coal and oil, are the only alternatives. In conditions when fears related to atomic energy return to the continent, apparently, natural gas will fill the energy shortage until renewable energy sources provide most of the energy balance.
As the leading exporter of natural gas in the world, as well as the owner of the largest gas reserves on the planet, Russia will clearly benefit from this, so this is very pleasant for the Kremlin news. But for Russia, the export of natural gas is something more than just additional income. For Russia, the export of natural gas is associated with control and political influence. The more Western Europe is dependent on Russia in the field of energy, the more the Kremlin will use this to forcibly separate the region from the alliance with the United States, concluded after World War II. As the Middle East and North Africa continue to fight unrest, reminding Europe again of the political instability of this region and its insecurity as an energy exporter, and as European populations are reminded of the dangers and fears of nuclear energy, Moscow sums up .
But Moscow is also interested in how the crisis that has engulfed the world can bring political benefits in addition to the energy field. First, the devastation in Japan gave Moscow and Tokyo a rare opportunity to talk about cooperation after long years (if not decades) of reducing the level of relations in connection with the island issue. Russia generously tries to show that it is not such a bad neighbor, and has sent large quantities of humanitarian aid, other necessary goods, and will also supply additional amounts of energy.
The crisis can also give Russia what it considers very valuable - time. One of the reasons that Russia has become so strong over the past decade is that its competitor, the United States, was focused on something else. Moscow became more nervous last year, knowing that Washington is becoming less and less involved in the affairs of the Middle East and South Asia. The Kremlin is now rattling the debate about whether events in the Middle East will cause Washington to focus on this region a little longer than expected, i.e. Will they give Russia even more time to cement their practically dominant position in Eurasia? Until now, the Kremlin should be pleased with the first three months of 2011 of the year for what they brought in the light of its own strategic interests.
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