Pensions and prices. Who will win?
pensioner
“It was just a thought to recount the income in some other equivalent. In the absence of a desire to engage in such recalculations, I give it to you ... And secondly (from my point of view, of course), the calculation of income using 1 (one) equivalent is unconvincing, no matter how fundamental it (equivalent) may seem ... In principle, it is I and had a thought. "
Well, rewriting an article just for the sake of it was not entirely from the hand, so the idea arose that "it would be nice to do the same with pensions." By the same thing, we mean the calculation of the growth (or stagnation) of a given statistical indicator not in such sea-demagogic indicators as rubles, dollars, interest, or something else, but directly in physical units. This is what we will do today.
The previous article caused a storm of indignation and emotion in the comments, therefore, in order not to raise the exact same holivar in the comments, I will begin today's article with a small educational program on the main issues identified.
1) Comments of several users were under the general thesis, namely: “The author of the kremlebot, and writes everything by request”, well, or something like that.
A.YARY
“Medvedev’s experiment“ on the “social” norm will soon begin, and our incomes will grow even higher - this is how the author will stick to us. ”
baltika-18
“In-in, to what just gentlemen agitators will not guess. The budget in barrels of oil is considered an increase in our income in liters of gasoline. And all for what? And all in order to prove how everything is beautiful and amazing, we thrive. Hurray, gentlemen or comrades! "
baltika-18
“Does it make sense, Asgard? Most of us already know the situation, judging by the comments and estimates, well, and the author, in my opinion, is useless, service is service. He is not the first time celebrated, the fourth article already. All are united by a common idea, everything is, in principle, good, the problems are small, but they are working on them, the overall dynamics are positive, we are beginning to flourish, the leadership is moving in the right direction, the main thing is stability, soon it will be even better, the main thing is not to twitch, bear and wait . I now wonder, the article about unemployment and migration will he or not? "
Monster_Fat (1)
“He is a troll. From the cohort of praiseware "achievements" of Putinomics. True, all their attempts in the field of economic justification and justification of the actions of the company "effective managers", despite the fact that they sound on different topics and voices, still boil down to one principle - the statement: "Everything is fine, not everything is still" polymers profukali "".
I think the situation is familiar to the pain to everyone who spoke on various resources of a particular trend, contrary to the general trend, be it Echo of Moscow or the blog of a certain “guardian”. In the first and in the second case, the authors receive the label "On Salary" with the only difference being that their employers are different. Moreover, both sides have every reason to assert that they are right. Well, oh well, I suggest everyone who somehow wants to express their opinion on this issue, to do it constructively, namely, pointing to where I lied, good quotes and screenshots are able to do everything.
2) The following thesis sounds something like this: “They are fattening in Moscow, and everything is bad outside the Ring Road”.
INTER
“+ Incomes in the regions, and not only in Moscow and St. Petersburg))))))) As you said there, 28800 rubles in the regions, haven’t heard about this, if 10 is sput, and then bread, many have such an opinion. It’s like a joke: as in our country, the average values are determined, so imagine, two sat down to eat a chicken, one eats, and the other looks at it, it turns out that they ate the chicken equally, i.e. half one, half the other. "
PSih2097
“This is when steep subsidy subjects like the Caucasus will be removed from statistics from Moscow with St. Petersburg, then let them build graphs and tables ...”
If we talk about statistics in Moscow, then I present to all readers such a schedule.
I repeat, one can often hear common phrases: "There is no life outside the Moscow Ring Road", "Regions are dying out, and the capital is fattening on their bones." In fact, the trend of income growth is exactly the opposite. In 1999, the income of Muscovites was in 3,6 times higher than the average Russian income. By 2011, the gap was reduced by one and a half times: to 2,5 times. In 2012, the gap was approximately 2 times (2,19, to be exact). But these charts will never intersect, at least while the Kremlin is in Moscow, and not, for example, in Irkutsk.
3) It was not done without such a thesis as "The average is the average temperature in the hospital."
Airman
"The average per capita income of the population is like the average temperature of hospital patients, including the morgue."
homosum20
“The average temperature in the 36,9 hospital. And the morgue is full. Why did it happen?"
What can I say?
A) To begin with, I want to remind you that all analysts - liberal, pro-government or “independent” - use statistics in their works, including averages. That is, often, to prove something bad, the average indicator or any other, taken from the same Rosstat, goes with a bang, but when this method fails, then familiar clichés on the Rosstat lie theme are used and so on. .
B) In the previous article, specifically in order to avoid such comments, all the calculation options were given, up to how many percent of people receive a certain salary in the Russian Federation.
C) Using the tables there, you can cut off the 10% of the richest and 10% of the poorest and calculate the average of them. Changes will be in the area of 20-25%, which, in fact, suggests that the thesis about "chicken" or "morgue" itself disappears.
D) Rosstat, in theory, even plays up to those people who do not believe its figures, as it does not take into account gray salaries in principle and is based only on the tax reporting of the individual entrepreneurs, LLC and other organizations, that is, the “white salary”.
4) It is very often possible to meet the following thesis: “The author is lying because I do not see it.”
GDP (Stavropol)
“The proportion of workers whose salary accrued exceeded 25 thousand rubles, on average in the economy increased from 27% in April 2011 to 41% in April 2013. I wonder where these statistics come from. Among my friends somewhere 5% of people who have ZP more than 25000. ... If you are not a military man and not a builder, then the RFP from 25000 is overwhelmingly possible only in senior positions, and then not everywhere ... "
In principle, the discussion can be ended by saying that most of my acquaintances receive from 25000 for qualified work and from 15 for unqualified, for example, as a store consultant. Immediately after this, our conversation will fall into demagogy about who is right or left. About this I wrote in the beginning of the article "On income".
But, in addition, looking out the window, as we are often offered, you can see two men fighting for parking for their new cars, you can see that the pace of housing construction almost caught up with the best Soviet figures, and once built, it means there is someone to buy, Moreover, the house is often bought directly from the pit. You can look at the passenger traffic on air transport, which inexorably creeps up, the same applies to the number of tourists traveling abroad, sometimes with the whole family. So such an indicator as personal feelings, to put it mildly, is biased.
5) Coupled with the thesis “Author on Salary”, you can also find another: “The author has chosen a convenient option”.
baltika-18
“He has one dream. Tear off more. I appeal to the author of the article. Here he assesses welfare in liters of gasoline, and it turns out that the income of the population in liters of AI-92 increased 3,5 times compared with 2000 year. And if you count, for example, the income of the same population in terms of natural gas, so our income fell 2 times. ”
Well, actually, what is the question, let the user who says so simply give me the price of a cubic meter of gas or something else in 1999 and 2012 (of course, with the indication of the source of information), and the question will be cleared. There is no data on this subject in Rosstat, or I didn’t find it, or I looked badly. In any case, this information is also interesting to me.
6) Often some commentators unwittingly confuse theses of the article and their thoughts.
SolomonSS
“I may not have understood something, the author of the article wants to say that the cost of gasoline that we pay is justified? We cannot agree with this in any way. In small towns the salary is 10-12 thousand rubles, in villages it is even less - 6 thousand rubles. And what they say in the news about the growth of salary at a cosmic pace - deception and nothing but ".
I mean, the price of gas is justified, I didn’t write, and in general I think that we have to pay less for fuel, even if not like in Qatar or Arabia, but 20-25 are cheaper per cent than now.
7) But in parallel with this, another thesis appears that "in an oil-producing country, gasoline should cost a penny."
queen
“In the States in general, 12-14 rubles are for ours ... and it is imported. Now we will make a gift to NG, travel to the subway 40 p., Gasoline to 50 p., Utilities at 25%. A pitchfork already sharpen right now. About the tax on cars generally keep quiet, but with insurance so it is generally a complete deception and the imposition of services, housing prices are not from this galaxy. In general, we have stability))) ".
Severomorsk
“Gas prices!
Venezuela - 0,47 rub.
Turkmenistan - 0,68 rub.
Iran - 2,39 rub.
Libya - 4,17 rub.
United Arab Emirates - 12,27 rub.
Azerbaijan - 4,37 rub.
Kazakhstan - 17,97 rub.
USA - up to 18,00 rub.
Russia - 30 rub.
He is echoed by another user with a nickname PSih2097
“Well, we don’t have our own oil, everything belongs to corporations, which, in turn, belong to hell who knows ...”
Here we are dealing with a very tricky stuffing, when they bring out some well-known fact such as the price of gasoline in Arabia, and then they begin to openly lie.
Here here There is a site where fuel data is given for the United States. The price of Regular gasoline is $ 3.228 per gallon, which in terms of ours will be equal to 28 rubles at the CBR exchange rate for December 17 2013 of the year. The same applies to Azerbaijan, where the price per liter is equal 0.95 dollarsthat is, 31 ruble.
What do we see? That's right, lies! Moreover, for some reason, such is often silent oil producing a country like Norway, with the price of gasoline € 1,786, which is equal to 80,72 rub. per liter. Or in Iraq - for 1 dollar.
Considering that the author of the figure took and blatantly lied, I will not analyze the other indicators (in Arabia and Venezuela, the numbers are exactly correct), although, we must admit that prices could be lower.
8) There is another interesting thesis. "In the Russian Federation, there is a huge income disparity."
queen
“So the article was laid out as a pill calming down, but in fact the opposite effect. The rich get richer, the poor fall into the abyss. "
botsman80
“The average per capita income in 2012 was 22880 rubles. That is, the average family (4 person) income is already 22880x4 = 91520 rubles. For comparison: the financial condition of the average German family is estimated at 45000 dollars per year, that is, 45000 / 12x32 = 120000 rubles per month ... almost like ours. But the Gini coefficient in Russia is 41,7, and in Germany - 27. And then there is Moscow and the "regions" (example: average per capita income: Moscow - 48343 rubles, Saratov region - 13948 rubles) ... So do not carry BODY !!! "
The correct inequality indicator is selected - Gini index.
Gini coefficient is an indicator of inequality. Theoretically, this coefficient can take values from 0 to 100, where 0 is absolute income equality, and 100 is absolute inequality, when all the incomes of a country belong to one person. The higher the Gini coefficient, the stronger the income inequality.
The author mentioned developing Russia (41,7) and highly developed Germany (27), and it seems like it's time to shout a guard, but in England this coefficient is 40,0, in China 47,4, in the USA 45,0, South Korea 41,9, and Turkey 40,2, in Israel 39,2, in Lithuania and Latvia 35,5, in France 32,7, in Holland 30,9, EU average 30,7, almost like in Armenia 30,9 ... and why they do not sit at home ??? How it's called? Half-truth - when they show part of the truth to create a certain picture in the head of the reader. So henceforth, I would advise not to write the words "BODY !!!" without full self-righteousness.
9) A separate group of comments is worthy of such a group of comments as "Lies".
GDP (colonel)
"A familiar submariner with no education at all gets 100000 p.".
Does the fleet take no education? Well, at least average? Especially in the submariners.
baltika-18 (army General)
“I appeal to the author of the article. Here he assesses welfare in liters of gasoline and he turns out that the income of the population in liters of AI-92 increased 3,5 times compared with 2000 year. And if you count, for example, the income of the same population in terms of natural gas, so our income fell 2 times. ”
Where does the data come from? I do not have a separate cubic meter, but there is a gas tariff per person per month. And if you express the incomes of citizens in this, you get the following:
As we see, in principle, there is nothing to be happy about, the price steadily follows the growth of incomes in percentage terms, only slightly lagging behind 2009, and being ahead after. But a lie "army general" it does not cancel.
baltika-18 (army General)
“Plus, there are regions where the average is higher than the national average, but there prices are higher, and there are regions where the average is lower than the national average. Ivanovo region for 2012 year - the average 13,5 thousands. And most of these regions.
Average per capita income in the Ivanovo region in 2012 year 15930,1 rub., according to this indicator, it takes place 13 from the end, while in the 31 region of the Russian Federation, this figure exceeds 20000 rubles.
queen
"In the States in general, 12-14 rubles for our ... and it is imported."
Given the links above, the price of US gas from 28 rubles per liter. Shale oil and freebies from enslaved Arab countries make up a large share of US factories, and oil also bobbed around in 90's about the same way.
Known who
"The 1,5-liter bottle of sparkling water in a stall near the house where I live, cost 12 rubles. And now - 40 rubles."
"Bon Aqua" costs 40 rubles, local - 12-20 rubles.
Setrac (army General)
"The average per capita income is calculated by dividing the GDP by the number of souls, but a small part of the GDP for wages is"
Are you sure that is considered so?
Samsebenaum (army General)
“To take revenues in Moscow and Altai Krai ... The difference is 40 times !!!!!!!”
Per capita income in the Altai region 14277,7 rub., the same indicator in the Moscow region is equal to 29699,1 rubles.
Monster_Fat (captain)
“He is a troll. From the cohort of praiseware "achievements" of Putinomics.
In my articles there is no mention of political figures. There is no praise and appreciation, dry statistics. Figures and facts.
soldier's grandson Col.
"The rise in prices is always several times faster than the growth of pensions and wages, prices are rising much earlier than wages and pensions."
How many times have prices overtaken pension growth? Read the article to the end, and find out that you're lying.
If I haven't clarified someone's question, then there are two options:
1) I did not notice him, for which I apologize.
2) An exhaustive answer has already been given to it, to which I cannot add anything, in one of the notes or in the comments in the "Answer" mode.
3) He was from a completely different opera.
Well, now get to the point.
As of April 2013, the average labor pension in Russia is 10400 rubles: this is approximately 38% of the average salary. The retirement age in Russia is 60 for men and 55 for women, so our retirees start receiving a pension on 5-10 years earlier than their peers from Western Europe and the USA. Since 2000, we have managed to reduce the gap in pensions between us and the West from monstrous 50 times to quite decent 2-4 times. In the post-Soviet space, Russia is the leader in terms of pensions. In absolute figures, only the Baltic states correspond to our indicators.
In general, by the year 2013 we can state the successful overcoming of the catastrophe of the nineties. Average pensions grow in 2 times faster than average consumer price inflation, while at the same time, pensions grew faster than 2010. After - slowed to a compensating level.
The state also subsidizes the costs of housing and utilities that exceed 22% of total income. Thus, the average pensioner after paying for average housing and communal services remains average 7000 rubles. If the situation does not change drastically, in the coming years, the average pensioner living in the average apartment will be able to spend about 130% of the subsistence minimum at its discretion after paying utility bills. I can not say that this is more than enough, but knowing that we inherited a lot of debt and an empty pension fund from the 90 liberals, the result looks quite good and inspires healthy optimism.
For those who have forgotten or did not know, let me remind you that after the collapse of the USSR, hyperinflation and the jumping dollar exchange rate put pensioners on the brink of survival. So, in 1995, the average pension was about 48 dollars per month, while it could also be delayed. After the collapse of the ruble in 1998, it became even worse. At the time of Yeltsin’s resignation, the average Russian pensioner received only 29 dollars a month. In addition, the change of the state system led to a huge number of problems with the calculation of seniority.
In Soviet times, the record of service took place according to employment records and the archives of the personnel services of enterprises. At the time of applying for a pension in Russia, many people suddenly discovered that:
a) individual records in labor were recognized as unreadable / invalid;
b) it was difficult to confirm the record with a certificate from the archive of the enterprise, since it could be collapsed or foreign;
c) the archive could disappear or burn completely or partially;
d) sometimes the data could be lost to one particular employee.
As a result, the person lost part of the work experience, which led to a significant decrease in the pension.
In addition, the change in the order of accounting of experience in the USSR and modern Russia led to the ambiguity of accounting for "work experience" for periods of pregnancy and maternity leave, as well as for the period of registration of studies in higher educational institutions (students and graduate students).
A separate negative factor of the nineties was the mass work "without labor", which negatively affected the pensions of workers who retired in the new millennium.
From 2000 to 2012, the average pensions in dollar terms increased more than tenfold, taking into account inflation more than five times. If in 1999, the average pension was meager 449 rubles, then already 2000, it rose to 700 rubles, in 2005, it rose to 2364 rubles, and in 2010 it reached 7476 rubles. On the 2013 year, as I said, the average pension is 10400 rubles.
We now turn to our calculations. Last time, we had a liter of gasoline as a natural unit, but since we are now talking about a very “specific” group of the population, namely pensioners, many of them, if not most, are deeply parallel to how many liters of gasoline they could buy at 1999 year and now. Therefore, we will change our natural unit for goods or products from the so-called "social basket". For convenience, we will call our natural unit word set.
So, in the set for the average senior citizen I included:
1) Boneless beef, kg.
2) Chickens (except chicken legs), kg.
3) Eggs, 10 pcs.
4) Rye Bread, rye-wheat, kg.
5) Buckwheat-Zadritsa, kg.
6) Potatoes, kg.
Let me remind you that we are not cooking soup and are not trying to see how much a loaf of bread, kg of meat or potatoes a pensioner can afford, but try to calculate the average pension in kind, therefore the products from different categories that fall into the category of everyday are taken as The main myth of all-propals is that “the overwhelming majority of our retirees are scavenging and dumping bottles with Olympic symbols“ Sochi-2014. ”Of course, speaking of the situation with pensions at the end of 90 and at the dawn of 2000, and I want to add to this "set" a bit of vodka, but, firstly, it’s against the rules of this wonderful resource, and, secondly, as popular wisdom says: “DRINK IS NECESSARY LESS !!!” (By the way, I wanted instead to add a liter of milk, but on Rosstat some This is a mess with that, with 1999 to 2009 there is “pasteurized whole milk 2,5-3,2%", and then the data disappears, and already there is only pasteurized drinking milk 2,5-3,5% ", which is different in price and taste).
And here we get a graph of price increases for these products for the corresponding period.
In my opinion, it is very clear, and the choice of products is fair enough, although I think the comments will have a lot of advice on what should be included in this set and what should be excluded. Well, actually, “we will see”, in principle, nothing prevents readers from making the same schedule themselves or sharing data with me, or simply giving advice.
As we can see, the rise in prices was uneven for different products, meat was the most expensive, the price of beef went up the most, followed by chicken. I don’t know about pork, I don’t have to eat it, and I don’t want to know how much it costs.
Now we will do the following. Summing up the prices of products over the years, we find out the cost of one set in a single year, then we divide the average pension by the cost of the set and as a result we get the average pension expressed in our "natural unit". I believe that this is even more true than our calculations of average per capita income in liters of gasoline, since the set contains goods from different price niches. So, we get the cost of one set in rubles from 1999 to 2013 years.
But, knowing that without regard to communal services, my calculations will be criticized every second, I tried to "dig up" as much information as possible about tariffs from Rosstat. I’ll say right away that there is a complete mess in the housing and communal services in the Russian Federation, since prices and tariffs vary from one HOA to another, even within the same city and microdistrict. So, here's what utilities services at Rosstat have data from 1999 to 2012 years.
1) Payment for housing for 50 m2 total area.
2) Cold water supply and drainage, per month per person.
3) Heating for 50 m2 total area.
4) Gas network, per month per person.
5) Electricity in apartments without electric stoves, for 100 kWh.
I must say that I did not find any other data. One who wants to polemize on "The author chose convenient options"I ask you to simply quote the prices for certain utility services with reference to the source.
Here is how these prices in Rosstat look.
Now, having data on average pensions for the same period, we will express pensions in our new “natural unit”. And we will do it the next way. From the average pension, we deduct the amount of the costs of the above utilities services (as a communal we pay once a month), namely: 100 kWh of electricity, housing fees for 50 m2 of the total area, cold water supply for the month per person, heating for the total area for 50м2, gas network for the month per person. The remaining amount we divide by "Set" food. Everything constructive comments and tips you can leave in the comments.
So, we look.
Any questions? Everything is clear to me, in real terms in 2012, in comparison with 1999, the pension increased almost 5 times in the year. Moreover, if you exclude beef from the set, the difference will be 7 times, but it will not be fair, since there is a whole list of products that have risen in price, like meat, so the difference in 5 times is the most objective result.
I do not consider the retirement of our grandfathers and fathers great or even fair, in the sense that during the Soviet years they laid the foundation for us, whose durability resource allowed our country after 10 years "New Time of Troubles" fast enough not only to get up on your feet, but also confidently go forward. Someone does not agree, but this ... well, in general, you understand me)))
As I promised at the beginning of the article, I post calculations of average per capita incomes expressed in “sets”. It is important to note that here we use the set number XXUMX - the same as the first one, but only there we added the price of gas from the article "On Income".
Total: in 2012, the average per capita income of the population in comparison with 1999 year increased by 3,2 times. Let me remind you that, calculating revenues only in gasoline, we got the figure in 3,5 (or 3,42, to be exact). The discrepancy, as they say, "within the framework of error."
Conclusions(on current and previous note):
1) The average per capita incomes of citizens of the Russian Federation in physical terms increased approximately 3 times.
2) Average pensions of citizens of the Russian Federation in physical terms increased 5 times.
Offtop output: In Russia, the price of gasoline is significantly lower than in Europe, but, based on the level of production and production volumes, it should definitely be even lower (20-30% is purely subjective).
Information