Military Review

Why Iran will not be able to bring down the price of oil

26
Why Iran will not be able to bring down the price of oilInterview of the chief expert of the US-Azerbaijan Foundation for Assisting the Progress of Alexei Sinitsyn with the AZE.az News Agency.


- How can Tehran's strange political demarche, which was used by the Minister of Oil Bijan Zangene to shock his OPEC colleagues with the plans of the Islamic Republic, explain: “We will achieve production of 4 million barrels per day, even if oil prices fall to 20 dollars”?

- Let's pay attention to the fact that the Minister made his statement not in the plenary session in Vienna, but in his lobby. And, in general, if one considers his words in a political context, this will be one more confirmation of the fact that the Iranian establishment is going through a state of euphoria. It seems that not very fragile “Geneva agreements” were reached in negotiations with the “Six”, and this Tehran emerged as a triumphant winner, at least, from the Cold War. This mood is supported by many other factors. Iranian creature - Lebanese "Hezbollah" - successfully manifests itself in the Syrian conflict. Even the Israeli Mossad recognizes it as the best military force in the region. Bashar Assad, an ally of Iran, clearly seized a strategic initiative in the Syrian theater of operations. Iranian influence on the government of Iraq, which is increasingly becoming a junior partner of Tehran, is constantly growing.

And, most importantly, the “reset” of relations with the United States is ahead of the wildest hopes of Iranian politicians. So why not scare the Sunni Arab regimes and Western opponents with a collapse in oil prices, suggesting that the Americans and the British might like this idea?

- Some experts believe that it was precisely the fears of the collapse of the oil market that caused the urgent visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Tehran. Do you share this point of view?

- Of course, in Tehran, Lavrov discussed pricing and coordination in the hydrocarbon market. But for Moscow, they are closely related to the Iranian political situation. Some experts already in the near future see relations between Tehran and Washington at the level of US interaction with the Shah's regime. This is certainly a bust, but the fact that Iran will drift towards the West is quite obvious. Americans can not build a coherent policy in the Middle East. Hence the sharp reversals from sympathy for the Muslim brothers to their hidden opponent - Saudi Arabia. And then, perhaps, from the not quite understandable Sunni monarchies to the eternal rival - Shiite Iran.

Let us not deny that the extremely popular President Rouhani is a mentally absolutely pro-Western leader. If Western investments and technologies go to Iran, then “friendship with the northern neighbor” will begin to melt before our eyes. This will affect Russia's relations with pro-Iranian forces - even with the same Syrian regime. And in the long term, it can open the way for the implementation of the military presence in the Caspian Sea of ​​non-regional states. By the way, Iran could turn into a real competitor to Gazprom on the European market. Recall that the notorious Nabbuco gas pipeline was designed for Iranian gas.

Therefore, Moscow in the difficult process of "taming" Iran will try to seize the initiative from the West. Minister Lavrov is preparing an agenda for President Putin’s visit to Iran. Not to offer respect to Tehran, but to approach the conclusion of the so-called. The “Grand Treaty”, just like the one that was signed with China and India.

- And yet, will Tehran go to the collapse of oil prices, which in the context of the emerging US-Iranian Renaissance, some experts see as a blow to all oil-producing states - Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Arab countries, but, first of all, to Russia.

- In the next six months - it is absolutely impossible. All oil futures for deliveries from other OPEC countries have already been bought up. In addition, it takes time to reanimate the Iranian mining capacity. In addition, some experts point out that global oil demand in 2014 will be not 90 million barrels per day, but 93 million. This will completely block the proposals of Iran. And then, all this talk about the fact that "it is profitable for Iran to sell its oil even for 50 dollars, because over the years of the sanctions, it has become accustomed to live economically" is not consistent. Iran needs superfunctions for permanent military construction, for financial support of their political ambitions in the Middle East. The population of Iran could no longer “live economically”, otherwise Rouhani would not have become president.

And, multinational oil companies are more influential than weapons “Are they returning to Iran now to work at a loss?” Do not forget that Iran has two of the most powerful adversaries - Israel and Saudi Arabia - with huge lobbying potential in the United States. By the way, the US Congress and Senate are much less favorably disposed towards Tehran than the Obama administration.

But the main argument in favor of keeping oil prices at an acceptable level is the geopolitical factor. If the oil quotes collapse, it will certainly lead to a weakening of Russia. But so is China’s emergency gain. And it is completely unprofitable to the United States. The tension between America and the Middle Kingdom, and indeed in the entire Pacific region, is only increasing. Once Zbigniew Brzezinski dreamed of "Kimerik", i.e. close union of the United States and China. And now two professors - American John Mirshaymer and Chinese Yan Xuetun - publicly discuss the inevitability of war between these two countries. Moreover, it is the American who insists on the worst scenario.

No, there will be no drop in oil prices. Under pressure from Washington, OPEC, first of all, the Saudi Kingdom, will cut quotas, there will be other levers of price balancing, but the bar of the cost of an oil barrel will remain at $ 100 +.
Originator:
http://www.net-fax.org/
26 comments
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  1. Andrey57
    Andrey57 12 December 2013 14: 22
    +6
    You need to conduct a very careful policy with Iran, not listening to their speeches too much. In words, Iran is a friend, but at the same time. submarines are being created in the Caspian! And no "threats from the West" can explain this, except for Russia, no one has real naval forces in the Caspian, which means that these submarines are aimed at the Caspian flotilla, so the S-300 should probably not be given to them.
    1. seller trucks
      seller trucks 12 December 2013 14: 35
      +4
      Quote: Andrey57
      then these submarines are aimed at the Caspian flotilla, so C-300 probably should not be given to them.


      Andrew, I’m embarrassed to ask, and which submarines to C-300 which side? their goals and objectives are different, and the enemy of my enemy is a potential ally.
      1. S-200
        S-200 12 December 2013 14: 43
        +3
        Quote: seller trucks
        Andrew, I’m embarrassed to ask, and which submarines to C-300 which side? their goals and objectives are different, and the enemy of my enemy is a potential ally.

        The Caspian Sea is not divided between coastal states ...
        There are claims for a number of disputed areas
        1. seller trucks
          seller trucks 12 December 2013 14: 53
          +2
          I’m not the opposite, now it has become fashionable to engage in limits (Canada, China, even Romania) everyone is attracted to you, would you be a resident of Iran, since it was not for the interests of Russia that you were happy.
          1. maxvet
            maxvet 12 December 2013 20: 01
            +1
            Quote: seller trucks
            would you be a resident of Iran, since it’s not for the interests of Russia that you were pleased.

            they have more graters with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan
            1. alone
              alone 12 December 2013 22: 22
              +1
              Quote: maxvet
              they have more graters with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan


              They have graters with Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Turkmenistan and Iran are against the partition of the Caspian at the proposal of Russia, which was supported by Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.
        2. Vadivak
          Vadivak 12 December 2013 16: 16
          +4
          Quote: ....
          the bar of oil prices will remain at around $ 100 +.


          Well, at least somehow calmer for the country ...
      2. baltika-18
        baltika-18 12 December 2013 15: 03
        0
        Quote: seller trucks
        and the enemy of my enemy is a potential ally

        Rouhani is now pursuing a very cunning policy, both of which he is gaining preferences for himself, he has an instrument of pressure, the price of oil. Everyone understands the hints, both the United States and we, therefore, such a movement around Iran. So I enlist Iran as allies I would not, given the problem of the Caspian.
        It is interesting to see what they negotiate with.
        1. seller trucks
          seller trucks 12 December 2013 15: 26
          +1
          Do not simplify the vision of the relationship between Iran and Russia to territorial claims and oil prices, today Iran is strongly interested in cooperation in the field of: energy (Bushehr nuclear power plant), engineering, aircraft manufacturing, military-industrial complex, I don’t think that Rouhani will cut the branch on which he sits . And Iran has no allies in the region except us and Syria.
      3. alone
        alone 12 December 2013 22: 20
        0
        Quote: seller trucks
        Andrew, I’m embarrassed to ask, and which submarines to C-300 which side? their goals and objectives are different, and the enemy of my enemy is a potential ally.


        It doesn’t always work. Not always the Enemy of my Enemy is my friend. And as for Iran, everything is said correctly. 100% cannot be relied on.
    2. APES
      APES 12 December 2013 16: 21
      +2
      Tehran emerged as a triumphal winner, at least from the Cold War.


      it remains to name the losers at this stage (they are unlikely to reconcile)

      from here it is worth waiting for a more than likely serious exacerbation in the Middle East ....

      the question is when?

      it seems to me - spring 2014 of the year
    3. The comment was deleted.
    4. pensioner
      pensioner 12 December 2013 17: 22
      +2
      Quote: Andrey57
      so the S-300 probably should not be given to them

      Give. But before that, thoroughly work on them ... repeat Well, to recognize her. If anything...
  2. The comment was deleted.
  3. mountain
    mountain 12 December 2013 14: 50
    0
    I would also not trust Iran. I hope Lavrov knows what he is doing.
    1. Vadivak
      Vadivak 12 December 2013 16: 21
      +1
      Quote: mountain
      I would also not trust Iran.


      Do you think the S-300 is not in vain put?

      Quote: mountain
      I hope Lavrov knows what he is doing.

      What they order is what they do.
  4. avg
    avg 12 December 2013 14: 57
    +7
    Quote: Andrey57
    The Caspian has no real naval forces, so these submarines are aimed at the Caspian flotilla, so the S-300 probably should not be given to them.

    1. Having removed their heads, they do not cry through their hair. Having sold the S-300 to the Chinese, you can safely sell it to Iran, and the faster the better.
    2. The average depth of the Caspian Sea, about 200 meters. And in our northern part, it’s even smaller than 4 m, and the maximum is 25 meters. So, only diversion boats can be used here.
    3. But the fact that "We need to conduct a very careful policy with Iran", I agree to all 100. We should not forget about the fact that we are "Little Satan" for them
    1. Ihrek
      Ihrek 12 December 2013 15: 47
      +1
      I agree with you on all points. And Iranian submarines will be aimed mainly at Azerbaijan.
      1. alone
        alone 12 December 2013 22: 27
        +1
        Jamal, to press us, submarines are not needed. The submarines are just addressed to Russia.
        We do not have such a powerful fleet in the Caspian Sea to put submarines against it.
    2. The comment was deleted.
  5. net-fax.org
    net-fax.org 12 December 2013 15: 19
    +2
    Gentlemen, we are talking about the fate of oil prices. I will show you what is written in the preamble of the article. The international media are now lively, and sometimes even hysterically, discussing the cost of an oil barrel in 2014, convincing each other that oil prices may drop five times by the fall, which, naturally, will be a disaster for the countries supplying hydrocarbons to the world market. The reason for this is the position of Iran, which the press managed to dub the "oil joker". Tehran, hoping to get rid of the "crippling sanctions" that halved its oil exports in six months, is eager "to compensate for the drop in production during the oil embargo and return to previous indicators as soon as possible." At the 164th meeting of the OPEC energy ministers in Vienna, this scenario was promised to the world by the Iranian representative Bijan Namdar Zangene, who in fact announced Tehran's readiness to unleash a price war: to increase oil production, even if prices go down. "This issue is much more important than the sale to Iran. S-300 Author.
    1. IRBIS
      IRBIS 12 December 2013 17: 50
      +2
      Quote: net-fax.org
      The reason for everything is the position of Iran, which the press managed to call the "oil joker."

      Indeed, some kind of muddy fuss. And the question involuntarily arises, why would the Americans "suddenly" begin to show some sympathy for Iran, even snapping back at their sworn friends? It will be difficult for Saudi Arabia alone to actually bring down oil prices enough to hit the Russian budget. However, if they also "sign" Iran to such a thing, then a big one should be expected next year.
      1. atalef
        atalef 12 December 2013 21: 31
        +1
        Quote: IRBIS
        Indeed, some kind of muddy fuss. And the question involuntarily arises, why would the Americans "suddenly" start showing some sympathy for Iran?

        Because Obama is a D.E.B.I.L.

        Quote: IRBIS
        It will be difficult for Saudi Arabia alone to actually bring down oil prices enough to hit the Russian budget. However, if they also "sign" Iran to such a thing, then a big one should be expected next year.

        Iran is able to drop prices alone, 5 times and not specifically. he just needs money, urgently and now, so he will dump. this is understandable, all capacities are clogged - for how many do not sell - = - all in profit. In half a year, prices will fall. no way out of the crisis. consumption even if it grows by 3 million barrels (Iranian) what to do with dozens - if not hundreds of millions of barrels of stocks? Even if consumption grows by 3 million, Iran produces the 4th (already 1 million more). So . that prices will fall. they will not collapse, but they will definitely fall.
  6. Sterlya
    Sterlya 12 December 2013 15: 30
    0
    Once the Saudis helped the Amers to collapse oil prices. the collapse of the USSR.
    if prices fall, the CA will survive calmly. China's only strength can hold the Democrats back.
    Well, if there is a go-ahead. I don’t even know what Iran will do. if there will be such a sale penniless for them. no one will put the ruble for them.
    Who said that they are not preparing nuclear weapons production? wassat
  7. knn54
    knn54 12 December 2013 15: 32
    0
    The only OPEC country capable of manipulating the oil market is Saudi Arabia.
    At one time, CA and other OPEC countries suffered losses, they are unlikely to want to repeat more than this. They will simply reduce production at home.
    Now Iran has all the storages full, it is technically impossible to stop production, so today they are ready to sell at $ 20. After all, they traded oil at $ 9 a barrel. Only for how long?
    Today, the average oil price is $ 110 per barrel. Even increasing production by 5 times, Iran will, at the same time ($ 20), earn less ...
    PS In 2010, oil was worth $ 78, and there was no catastrophe in Russia - GDP grew by 4,3%. Oil industry workers in Russia will work more on the domestic market.
  8. saag
    saag 12 December 2013 16: 10
    0
    Quote: baltika-18
    It is interesting to see what they negotiate with.

    Before the appearance of miniskirts in Iran, they were there until 1977 :-)
  9. ReifA
    ReifA 12 December 2013 16: 13
    +1
    In the worst case, there will be a short jump in oil prices down and in a couple of weeks or a month everything will return to normal.
  10. Nayhas
    Nayhas 12 December 2013 16: 14
    -4
    "And yesterday everything around
    They said: "Sam is a friend! ..."
    V.S. Vysotsky.
    Laughter and more! How many loud speeches there were in support of Iran, they say, "Hold on Iran! You are our ally, along with Assad and Hezbollah ..." Well, they supported, and he answered:
    “We will reach 4 million barrels per day, even if oil prices fall to $ 20.”

    How many months will Russia last at a price of at least $ 50 per barrel?
  11. The comment was deleted.
    1. smersh70
      smersh70 12 December 2013 22: 39
      +2
      Quote: BBM
      deleted by moderator


      .VETaki YOU need to turn off gas and oil ..... wassat
    2. Farik
      Farik 12 December 2013 22: 45
      +2
      Quote: BBM
      article cheap Azeri campaign against Iran

      News of the day. Ukraine wants to make friends with Iran and drive gas from there to spite the damned holes laughing
  12. net-fax.org
    net-fax.org 12 December 2013 18: 29
    +2
    And where is Azerbaijan? And what kind of agitation does VVM speak about?
    It must be understood that Tehran did not accidentally go on this demarche - it promised to drop oil prices to $ 20 / bar. It contains a certain message addressed to Russia - if you do not sell the air defense systems and not only the air defense systems, we can collapse oil prices. Another thing is that it is impossible to do. Saudi Arabia is the first to cut production quotas so that oil does not go below $ 100 / bar. But the fact remains - such messages (or threats, or blackmail) do not testify in favor of Iran. Oddly enough, Ahmadinijat was more predictable or, at least, more consistent than Rouhani.
  13. shurup
    shurup 12 December 2013 19: 03
    +1
    Let the hungry "professors" discuss the inevitability of a third nuclear world on the Internet. I hope this will help them pay for their education.
    If you feed the monkey, then it will not be able to sleep on a tree. Let the cats eat.
    What does Azerbaijanis, Persians and their numerous relatives have to do with it?
  14. mountain
    mountain 12 December 2013 19: 31
    0
    Quote: Vadivak
    What they order is what they do.

    Is Russia his personal shop?
  15. kare
    kare 12 December 2013 20: 13
    0
    For them, we are just giaurs, trying to try on clothes of conscience and honor on them, a rotten and not grateful business. Any action that they think is beneficial will be applied against enemies and the same allies.
  16. kaktus
    kaktus 13 December 2013 05: 31
    0
    Oil rises in price - gasoline rises in price
    oil is getting cheaper - gas is getting more expensive
    wassat
    all the same, gas is getting more expensive