Military Review

Afghanistan in Iran’s strategic plans

2
Afghanistan in Iran’s strategic plansAmericans want to stay in Afghanistan after the expiration of the mandate of the UN Security Council in 2014 and expect only the consent of President Hamid Karzai, who so far refuses to sign an agreement on strategic partnership with Washington. As they say in Kabul, China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Turkey, the countries of Central Asia spoke in favor of the agreement. Iran remains the only country opposing the signing of an agreement with the United States by Afghanistan. In the coming days, the President of Afghanistan will arrive on an official visit to Iran to discuss the prospects for concluding an Afghan-American agreement.


Tehran believes that the military presence of the United States and NATO can have negative consequences both for Afghanistan and for the region as a whole. It is possible to agree with the fears of the Iranians that Afghanistan could become a lever by which the US will regulate the level of threats for the states bordering with Afghanistan for the benefit of itself. However, the position of the Iranian leadership does not agree with other neighbors of Afghanistan, who, on the contrary, are confident that without American military support, the Afghan police and army, which have already transferred more than 70% of the country’s territory to responsibility, are unlikely to be able to maintain order and security.

Already, the national police and local self-defense units of Afghanistan lose more than 100 people killed and about 300 people wounded every week, and there is no reason to believe that these losses will be reduced after the Americans leave, and the heat of the armed struggle will subside. The resumption of the active phase of the civil war is predicted, warnings are issued about the likelihood of a repetition of the bloody “Syrian scenario”, since no political group is able to establish a strong balance of power in Afghanistan today. The inevitability of the aggravation of the situation in the country after the departure of the Americans scares everyone, but in Tehran it seems to be considered the lesser evil. For the Iranians, it is more important not to allow the American occupation of Afghanistan to continue for the future up to 2024, as provided for in the draft agreement, which so far does not want to sign Karzai ...

From the standpoint of international law, Iranian diplomacy has every reason to seek from the neighboring state to refuse consent to the US military presence in Afghanistan, as the mandate of the UN Security Council ends, and the Americans are going to stay here in agreement with the current Afghan government, which in the spring of 2014, after the presidential election may not be. Iran intends to continue to persuade the Afghan leadership to abandon the agreement with the Americans.

Kabul has an understanding that Iran seeks to erect barriers for the United States and other Western countries, thereby creating the prerequisites for strengthening its own influence in the region. Iran is trying to build relations simultaneously with the Afghan government and the Afghan Shiite minority. The Iranian regime’s promotion of its ideology creates tensions between Sunnis and Shiites. Tehran’s accusations of “cultural invasion”, the desire to control Afghanistan through media and religious activities are also heard. Now in Afghanistan, 6 TV channels and 15 radio stations operate on Iranian money. Afghan secret services periodically report on Tehran’s support for pro-Iranian anti-government rebel groups in various parts of the country. The DRA government has repeatedly declared Teheran’s failure to comply with Iran’s strategic cooperation agreement with Afghanistan. As you can see, Kabul’s claims to the Afghan policy of the western neighbor have accumulated enough.

But the leaders of the Taliban movement, calling on President Karzai to abandon the agreement with the Americans, are quite happy with Iran’s anti-American policy in Afghanistan. The logic of the Taliban is clear: they do not want to preserve the American occupation in the hope of returning to Kabul as victors in the coming civil war. If there is any doubt about the victory of the Taliban, then they have no plans to unleash this war. It is impossible to ensure stability in Afghanistan without the inclusion of the Taliban in the existing political system, but the Taliban do not intend to take part in the upcoming presidential elections in Afghanistan in April 2014, preferring the “right of force”. Kabul has few chances to find mutual understanding with the Taliban, and the Americans have too few. Nevertheless, Kabul is seeking ways to seat the Taliban at the negotiating table. The Americans, in turn, also expect to resume direct contacts with the Taliban.

Many experts believe that Iran has its own "Iranian Taliban", in any case, the Iranians with the Taliban not only fought, but often came to an agreement on the division of spheres of influence. Similar arrangements cannot be ruled out in the new situation. In achieving their goals, the Taliban may well rely on the Iranian shoulder, because the Iranians, in their understanding, are much better than the Americans and do not claim to be the whole of Afghanistan. It is important for Iran to dominate the country's Shiite area, which is approximately 15% of the population of Afghanistan, whose representatives cannot be at the head of the entire state under any circumstances. Tehran has traditionally sought to have a strong position in areas densely populated by the Tajik ethnic group. Note that the former president of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, set a goal to revive Persian nationalism, opposing his position to Iranian spiritual leadership, who believes that only Islam can be the basis of Iranian identity. In Afghanistan, the Tajiks are in the sphere of Iranian interests and have always been supported by Iranians.

It should also be borne in mind that Tehran can significantly increase the number of its supporters in Afghanistan by forcibly returning Afghan refugees, of whom there are more than 3 million people in Iran and almost half of them are illegal. Most Afghans in Iran assimilated with Iranians, speak the same language, have much in common in culture and life. In November 2012, the Iranian government decided to deport more than 2015 million Afghan refugees to their homeland by the end of 1,6. This provoked Kabul’s strong objections, but the deportation of Afghan refugees from Iran is already underway. Finally, Tehran remains the main donor of Herat - one of the largest provinces of Afghanistan, located in the west of the country and bordering Iran. The majority of the population in Herat professed Shiism and in the years of the former civil war put up fierce resistance to the forces of the Taliban movement. Now Iranian investments in the economy of Herat have increased the volume of bilateral border trade to almost 2 billion dollars (2012 data of the year).

In addition to the expansion of trade, reconstruction, construction of educational centers, investments in infrastructure, Iran pays special attention to cooperation with the authorities of neighboring Afghan provinces in the fight against drug trafficking. Here Iran has very serious claims to the Americans.

Over the years of the ISAF troops in Afghanistan, 12 has produced and exported more heroin than any other country in the world. The Americans set foot on Afghan soil at the moment when, in 2001, the country produced the smallest amount of opium raw materials from 1992, total 185 tons. Years of foreign occupation led to an increase in drug production in Afghanistan almost 40 times. The Western coalition led Afghanistan to become the sole leader among the drug traffickers of the entire planet. Today, 80% of the world opium poppy crop is removed in Afghanistan. Iran is located in the transit corridor between raw opium producing Afghanistan and its European consumers. The Iranian government spends more than 800 million dollars annually on the fight against drug trafficking. At the same time, international organizations allocate crumbs to Iran for the fight against drug trafficking - a total of about $ 15 million.

The effectiveness of Iran’s struggle against drug trafficking is extremely high. For comparison: if the Russian law enforcement agencies manage to withdraw from circulation only about 4 percent of the heroin and narcotic drugs entering the country, Iran removes about 33 percent. Iran is the world leader in the volume of confiscated drugs and an important partner of the UN in combating their distribution. In recent years, more than 700 kilometers of ditches have been dug at the Iranian-Afghan border, extensive border fortifications have been built, including barbed wire fences and concrete fences. The Iranian government has deployed thousands of security personnel and other security agencies to the east of the country. The Islamic Republic of Iran accounts for 80% opium and 40% morphine seized worldwide. Over the past five years, Iranian intelligence services annually seized 600 tons of drugs from smugglers on average 2. For Iran itself, the drugs of the Americans who refused to fight the Afghan drug business also became a national disaster: there are already about XNUMX million drug addicts in the country.

Chuck Heigl, who was in Kabul these days, is confident that the Afghan authorities will sign a bilateral agreement on time - before the onset of 2014. During the upcoming visit of the Afghan president to Tehran, the Iranians will try to dissuade Hamid Karzai from putting his signature on an Afghan-American pact. Tehran would not like to see Americans in Afghanistan for many years.
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  1. AVV
    AVV 11 December 2013 15: 32
    +7
    America needs to be driven out of Afghanistan !!! They are only interested in heroin in this country !!! The main economic component of the special services of the states !!! And a means to decompose the geopolitical opponents of Europe, Russia and other countries !!!
    1. Poruchik 90
      Poruchik 90 11 December 2013 18: 43
      +1
      And the Afghans themselves will drive them out, only it takes time. Not the British, not we could not resist there, well, these will leave.
    2. Sterlya
      Sterlya 11 December 2013 21: 44
      +1
      It is necessary to drive unambiguously. The position of Russia is not entirely clear. the Americans will leave. the flow of heroin to Russia will decrease. Is it bad? When the Taliban arrives, drug production will decline. in this regard, the Taliban are much more honest than the democrats. and in other matters, the Taliban is more useful to Afghanistan. But Americans and other Democrats are like a monkey playing with a grenade. they will never understand Afghanistan. their brains are not so arranged to understand. It’s good that they have not yet thought of legalizing same-sex relationships. limited to relationships only in their environment. The only way to establish any peace in Afghanistan is the Taliban. sure. with a fairly correct dialogue with them, the result will be more positive.
      And if the Democrats remain. it will be a war before they leave. and nothing else.

      About Iran. So who turns out to be the most bothering American drug dealer! Either the democrats are so dissatisfied with Iran. (by the way. the word democracy. democrat. have become abusive for me. a long time ago. that's how it turns out)
  2. Ingvar 72
    Ingvar 72 11 December 2013 15: 50
    +2
    All Iran can do in Afghanistan is to try to throw yeast into this fermentation tank by expelling Afghan refugees from the country, and inciting the warlords. So, little dirty tricks pendosam. There will not be enough forces on real measures of influence; too serious interests intersect there.
  3. Clegg
    Clegg 11 December 2013 19: 03
    +6
    Jews why is "Iran" still alive?)
    1. And Us Rat
      And Us Rat 12 December 2013 02: 26
      0
      Quote: Clegg
      Jews why is "Iran" still alive?)


      Because the Iranians are sykuns, waving flags, yapping in front of TV cameras and paying FOREIGN suicide bombers - all they can, and just that, are looking for someone to hide behind their skirt. laughing
      Their favorite trick is to yell "death to Israel", and when one of our generals told them - let's say to fight then, since you want our blood, they immediately pretended to be rags: "We are, they say, a peaceful country, and in general, the horse is not mine" bully
      They swore and swore to protect Assad - and where are the brave Persian soldiers fighting for Assad? There are no them, a dozen "advisers" were sent - so they sit out in the headquarters, but Hezbollons are stupidly sent to slaughter, they do not feel sorry for them - the Levanchegs, blasphemy, the Arabs are not Persians, but Arab women are still giving birth. fellow
      1. bairat
        bairat 12 December 2013 07: 46
        0
        Quote: And Us Rat
        Because the Iranians are sykuns, waving flags, yapping in front of television cameras and paying FOREIGN suicide bombers - all they can, and just that, are looking for someone to hide behind their skirt. laughing

        How long have you got out from under an American skirt? You are brave when you demolish peaceful settlements on tanks.
        1. And Us Rat
          And Us Rat 12 December 2013 14: 43
          -1
          Quote: bairat
          How long have you got out from under an American skirt?

          What a bold statement, probably there are examples? lol

          Quote: bairat
          You are brave when you demolish peaceful settlements on tanks.

          False propaganda cliché. I wish you such "small settlements" in your neighbors - it heals well from lecimeria. negative
          1. bairat
            bairat 12 December 2013 15: 02
            -1
            Any person, if they drive him away from his native places, will take up arms. You will play out with your God-chosenness, the tears of the children will pour out yet.
            1. And Us Rat
              And Us Rat 12 December 2013 23: 29
              0
              Quote: bairat
              Any person, if they will drive him away from his native places, will take up arms

              So we take up arms, 60% of Israelis were born here already in the 5-6 generation, and 20% have a pedigree in 30 + generations on this earth, go tell them that the country and city where their great-grandfathers, grandfathers, parents were not born house. fool

              the tears of the kids will pour out yet

              The tears of children living under shelling are already pouring out into all kinds of Hamas, there is justice in nature, and in my opinion, mother’s tolerance does not pour out. am

              You with your chosen God ...

              ... do not bother at all, this anachronism of biblical times worries only all Natsiks, for 20+ years of life in Israel, I have never heard of any "God's chosenness", although according to religious laws I am generally a goy, and ... what a miracle , I never even noticed it. And I first learned about the so-called "God's chosenness" from such forums, from all sorts of rabid Natsik (I won't poke my fingers) negative

              Still unproven, pathos, fascist cliches will be? bully
          2. The comment was deleted.
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. Clegg
        Clegg 12 December 2013 16: 53
        +2
        And Us, you killed me. laughing

        In general, I really like your country, a lot can be learned from you.
  4. Siberian
    Siberian 11 December 2013 19: 08
    0
    How Americans contradict themselves. We are leaving Afghanistan, now they want to stay. They see them smeared with drug-honey. Or a presence nearby with Iran is flattering. Or maybe both.
    1. does it
      does it 11 December 2013 21: 11
      0
      Quote: Siberian
      How Americans contradict themselves. We are leaving Afghanistan, now they want to stay. They see them smeared with drug-honey. Or a presence nearby with Iran is flattering. Or maybe both.

      This is the American oligarchs stir up something ....
  5. MIKHAN
    MIKHAN 11 December 2013 19: 13
    +1
    Quote: AVV
    America needs to be driven out of Afghanistan !!! They are only interested in heroin in this country !!! The main economic component of the special services of the states !!! And a means to decompose the geopolitical opponents of Europe, Russia and other countries !!!

    You read my thoughts ... the Americans are leaving Afghanistan only with their language (they will not leave there ..) Only Russia (with a meaningful soft kick (for now ..) can rush them .. The influence and weight of Russia in this region is growing (we are remembered .. ) And we remember the "stingers" ..! Roles can change at any time ..
    1. alone
      alone 11 December 2013 22: 32
      +2
      Since the 70’s, the Afghans have only fought. First with each other, then with the Soviet Army, then again with each other, and now with the West. And now you offer to climb there again. Understand only one thing, they have to fight with anyone on the drum. America will leave. Russia will come, they will fight again anyway. They want to live according to their own laws. And about drugs, you have to close the border with an iron lock. But this is difficult. I hope you know through whom all this crap comes to Russia and who controls it.
      1. And Us Rat
        And Us Rat 12 December 2013 02: 37
        -1
        Quote: lonely
        Since the 70’s, the Afghans have only fought. First with each other, then with the Soviet Army, then again with each other, and now with the West. And now you offer to climb there again. Understand only one thing, they have to fight with anyone on the drum. America will leave. Russia will come, they will fight again anyway. They want to live according to their own laws. And about drugs, you have to close the border with an iron lock. But this is difficult. I hope you know through whom all this crap comes to Russia and who controls it.


  6. BBM
    BBM 11 December 2013 19: 46
    +2
    In Afghanistan, Tajiks fall into the sphere of Iranian interests and have always been supported by the Iranians.
    Everything is true, except that the author modestly keeps silent that the Persians are those whom the Russians call Tajiks (often contemptuously). And Tehran is really seriously nurturing plans to build the Tajik world empire :) and, most importantly, it has real chances.
    1. Siberian
      Siberian 11 December 2013 20: 30
      0
      Air force. Persians and Tajiks are different nationalities. And in what circles do you turn around what the Russians call Tajiks contemptuously? If with humor, then yes, we humor ourselves.
      1. BBM
        BBM 11 December 2013 20: 32
        +1
        Yes Yes. Only for example, unlike the Russians and Ukrainians, they speak the same language (Farsi). What else doesn’t stop calling you their different nationalities.
        1. Siberian
          Siberian 11 December 2013 20: 47
          0
          VVM Sorry, a little lost. But do Iranians speak Turkic? Are Tajiks in Farsi? Although right now I revered a kindred nation. If not right, correct. Sincerely.
          1. BBM
            BBM 11 December 2013 21: 00
            +1
            Quote: Siberian
            But the Iranians seem to speak Turkic

            Azerbaijanis belong to a Turkic language family; there are quite a few of them in Iran - BUT THE STATE language is Farsi with all that it implies :)
          2. Clegg
            Clegg 11 December 2013 21: 04
            +4
            Quote: Siberian
            . But do Iranians speak Turkic?

            There is no such people as Iranians, it is like Russians and Indians.
            There are Persians who are close to Tajiks, Ossetians, Pashtuns and Kurds.
            There are Turks, there are Arabs. If desired, there you can arrange a bunch of small.
            1. BBM
              BBM 11 December 2013 21: 20
              0
              you can’t have a guide and a guide there, as in the USSR at one time, only the humpback and Yeltsin are not there. And for the rest, everything is very similar only instead of the commissars of the priest - Tobish Ayatollah.
    2. Clegg
      Clegg 11 December 2013 20: 35
      +2
      Quote: BBM
      And Tehran is really seriously nurturing plans for the construction of the Tajik world empire

      Kstati, byl odin kandidat kotoriy obeshal prisoedinit Azerbaijan, Armeniyu i Tajikistan k Iranu. Tipo rossiiskii Jirinovsky)))

      Quote: BBM
      most importantly, it has real chances.

      Ne soglasen, u nih bol'shie problemy vnutri strany. Tam jivut azeri-turki, araby, kurdy i belugi. Kotoryh CIA budet ispol'zovat 'pri pervoi je vozmojnosti. Im by separatizm svesti na net, a potom mechtat 'ob Empire.
    3. Muadipus
      Muadipus 11 December 2013 21: 39
      0
      Wake up Dear! The Tajik empire already exists and its capital is Moscow. A little more and Muscovy can be safely renamed "Tadzhiston"
      1. Clegg
        Clegg 11 December 2013 21: 55
        +3
        Tochikiston will be more correct
  7. JonnyT
    JonnyT 11 December 2013 20: 01
    0
    Iran has to bite the bullet and wait for America to decay to the end ...... then you can talk with the Taliban to dislodge the remnants of the occupation forces and give freedom to the people of Afghanistan! Kill drug production, invest in joint business projects!
    1. Clegg
      Clegg 11 December 2013 20: 38
      +3
      Quote: JonnyT
      Iran has to bite the bullet and wait for America to decay to the end.

      Kogda USA budet gnit ', Irana ne budet na politisheckoi karte mira. Maximum ostanetsya malen'kaya Persia
      1. BBM
        BBM 11 December 2013 20: 47
        +1
        you be careful there with forecasts. Unlike the future territory of China, under the flag of which you write, the sovereign state of Iran has all the means to maintain its continued existence. Including nuclear weapons and their delivery vehicles to any address on planet Earth.
        1. Clegg
          Clegg 11 December 2013 21: 01
          +3
          VVM
          Quote: BBM
          Unlike the future territory of China

          First, learn to write normally in Russian)))

          Near China, countries such as Singapore, Malaysia and a bunch of other countries in the South have long lived. China did not occupy them, although they are mentally closer to the Han. Why on earth will they capture Kazakh Muslims? There, in East Turkestan, Uigurs, Kazakhs, and other Turks give a worthy rebuff to China; in the event of a seizure, this conflict will be doubly stronger.

          Quote: BBM
          the sovereign state of Iran has all the means to maintain its continued existence. Including nuclear weapons and their delivery vehicles to any address on planet Earth.

          So what?! The USSR had a second nuclear arsenal, a large and trained army, and where is this country now?
          1. BBM
            BBM 11 December 2013 21: 14
            0
            Quote: Clegg
            First, learn to write normally in Russian)))

            both on. still switched to the Cyrillic alphabet - and I thought that as a real racial Turk, you will continue to write in Latin letters. It's now your government policy
            1. Clegg
              Clegg 11 December 2013 21: 22
              +3
              Quote: BBM
              still switched to cyrillic

              still switched to "YOU"
              I wanted to show my superiority over you)))

              Quote: BBM
              but I thought that as a real racial Turk, you will continue to write in Latin letters.

              There were no Russian letters on the phone, now through the comp.
              Right, I would rather go to the Latin alphabet as you see, I like the Latin alphabet.

              Quote: BBM
              It's now your government policy

              It would be better to go to the Maidan and support the people
  8. MIKHAN
    MIKHAN 11 December 2013 21: 00
    0
    Quote: JonnyT
    Iran has to bite the bullet and wait for America to decay to the end ...... then you can talk with the Taliban to dislodge the remnants of the occupation forces and give freedom to the people of Afghanistan! Kill drug production, invest in joint business projects!

    Well, why should Iran wait ..? Russia (the USSR has been doing this for a long time) wants to repeat it again (in a different format of course) .. Something should be so ..!
  9. Stiletto
    Stiletto 11 December 2013 22: 30
    0
    "For comparison: if Russian law enforcement agencies manage to withdraw from circulation only about 4 percent of the heroin and opium group drugs entering the country, then Iran withdraws about 33 percent. Iran is the world leader in the volume of confiscated drugs and an important UN partner in the fight against their spread." ...

    - Not in that chip, how many seized, but in where and how much they bring. And that. that Iran is leading in these sad statistics, not its merit, but misfortune. In my opinion, there is no need to stand on ceremony with dealers or dealers - only the death penalty, as in China. I regret to admit that the current system of justice in Russia against this evil is practically powerless ...
  10. Yeraz
    Yeraz 12 December 2013 01: 26
    +1
    Americans are cunning, support either Sunnis or Shiite Iran, they will not let them cross the line that they themselves have drawn, there are 3 more players Turkey, Muslims are Sunnis, but they are not confused as Arabs on this. Iran will not work with Tajikistan, although there is one people, but religion doesn’t give them that. The Tajiks spoke a lot about the Shiites' Pamiris and the Tajik’s hostility is mainly related to their Shiism. These differences will not allow them to be very close, Azerbaijan and Turkey are also one people, but here nationalist themes are stronger than Sunni Shiite, but on the contrary, these differences in faith are paramount.
  11. Sars
    Sars 12 December 2013 09: 58
    +1
    Quote: And Us Rat
    Because the Iranians are sykuns, waving flags, yapping in front of television cameras and paying FOREIGN suicide bombers - all they can, and just that, are looking for someone to hide behind their skirt. laughing
    Their favorite trick is to yell "death to Israel", and when one of our generals told them - let's say they fight


    Something I have the opposite opinion! Your Netanyaha is constantly yelling: hold me, right now I will bomb Iran ....!
    1. And Us Rat
      And Us Rat 12 December 2013 23: 49
      +2
      Quote: SarS

      Something I have the opposite opinion! Your Netanyaha is constantly yelling: hold me, right now I will bomb Iran ....!


      Yes, many of us are not happy with it ourselves, but fortunately, democracy and elections will solve this misunderstanding, Bibi will not last forever, but the Iranian mullocracy ... that’s where the dog is buried, their puppet president.