Alexander Prokhanov, chief editor of the newspaper "Tomorrow"
Speaking about the nature of both the troubled times and revolutions, let us dwell on the more relevant fragments of our Russian time: from Romanov to red, and from red to today's, we will call it Putin's era.
Vitaly Averyanov, Doctor of Philosophy
Each civilization should write a special social science, and not prescribe the norms and terms invented to describe and explain other civilizations. Globalization can destroy old records or replace them, but it cannot force the chroniclers to rise and rewrite these records. In the so-called universal civilization there are no ancestor fathers, because it is all built on revolutions, in renunciation of previous generations. And a particular civilization-tradition has fathers, and they constantly resurrect in their descendants, announce their will after centuries.
There is a widespread view that prioritizes the conspiracy version - the conspiracy version. There is a great tradition in the West, coming from Joseph de Maistre, Metternich, etc. In the most objectified form, this approach was manifested in the American researcher Theodore von Laue, who called all the revolutions of the XIX-XX centuries. "revolutions from the outside." Ultimately, all the so-called revolutions always have one main reason. This is the fact that a significant part of the real elite is embarking on the path of separatist in relation to its own people, embedding it in the global order that seems to them attractive. This applies even to the Great French Revolution, since members of the then circles thought that they were being incorporated into the highest sect of the spiritualists, the Illuminati. At the same time, revolutionaries must rely on someone below, so they act as instigators of dissatisfied crowds. The exception is the Iranian “revolution” of 1979.
All Time of Troubles occurs on certain demographic cycles. And the existing structural-demographic theory rather vividly describes this on the statistical figures of population dynamics, colonization processes, increasing the ecological niche of the ethnic group. Troubled times always occur after a long time "demographic compression", that is, increasing population density, there is overcrowding and social overstrain of the system. Thus, in the central zone of Russia, the number of landless peasants increased exponentially (with a doubling of the population in 20-30 years, not two, but ten times). These were primarily young people. This social aggression, this free energy, in order to avoid a social explosion, had to be directed somewhere.
Starting from about the middle of the 18th century and until the events of 1917, we had a doubling of the population every 50 years.
Moreover, in the last 50 years before 1917, the arable lands did not increase in our country, there was no significant colonization of new territories, but the birth rate did not fall. The peasants succeeded at the expense of increasing yields to feed their children, but to feed them at the level of poverty, on the verge close to poverty. The community itself reproduced the old demographic situation and rewarded young families for having children, giving them land for the number of eaters. The correlation coefficient between the high birth rate and the share of households in the second half of the XIX century was equal to 0,97, that is, the connection is unambiguous. Therefore, if, instead of the Stolypin reform, our elite went to the full transfer of landed estates to the peasants (such plans were developed and proposed to the tsar after 1905 of the year), 1917 would have been averted the year.
The population explosion reflected the objective process of the explosive growth of the energy forces of the Russian people, their vitality. The number of people filled with a premonition of a better future, changes, the need for reorganization of life has grown. I have great respect for Nicholas II, he was moving in the right direction, but at the same time he was clearly lagging behind the tasks of time.
The decisive cause of the 1917 events of the year was not malnutrition, not need, but increased stakes and ambitions of active social strata of society, tremendous self-conceit and intellectuals, clergy, and lower classes. It seemed to everyone that "we ourselves are with a mustache."
At the same time, the magnitude of the tasks of reorganizing Russian life was such that the scale of Ivan the Terrible or Peter the Great was required. Since the Romanovs and the ruling elites could not offer a personality of such a scale, a so-called “revolution” occurred that suggested such a leader to the country.
With all due respect to the achievements of Stalin, his breakthrough was made not only not optimal, but extremely radical scenario, forced and perverted. As a result of this breakthrough development, we overstrained. But the fault is, in fact, not Stalin. He managed to find a way out of the situation almost hopeless. He himself, in a conversation with the British in 40-s, assessed the period of the opening of the beginning of the 30-s as the most terrible in his political fate. As a result, already in the middle of the XX century, we became a demographically stagnating nation. And you could, as Mendeleev predicted, be on 200 millions more, with a different proportion between Russians and Asians in the empire and with a fundamentally different way of life.
All this is our lesson for the future.
Within the 300-year-old Romanov monarchy, collisions arose that were supposed to weaken or crush it. The monarchy itself began from one time of troubles and ended with another time of troubles. What happened in 1917 and in 1991 is called revolution. But a revolution is, it seems to me, a not so comprehensive definition. Because when the first Kiev-Novgorod Empire ended, there was no revolution, but decay, a mysterious disintegration. The Moscow kingdom also fell apart.
At this exhibition, I had the feeling that, together with my Motherland, I had lived those 300 grand years, filled with flowering, unrest, executions, inventions, accessions to the throne, and overthrows. And all these events, even those that seem scary, evoke a feeling of greatness, because the people living in these spaces have confirmed their ability to live in historical time and master this historical time. He was able to control the history of both his own and the world.
This exhibition is a story about a great, precious three hundred year Russian time, which later turned into a precious seventy-year Soviet fire time.
Will the next stage - Putin's - be as grand and delightful? I have no doubt about it.
Because if you believe in the immortality of the Russian genius, in the fact that this genius is more powerful and powerful than all his historical, economic definitions, that he is the essence of Russian history, then our era today, with all its pinch, degradation, will certainly be built in the third wave of a grand and very powerful Russian time.
Valery Korovin, Deputy Head of the Center for Conservative Research, Faculty of Sociology, Moscow State University
I would like to turn my eyes to the time of the XV century, when the formation of Russia as an Orthodox empire took place - as the heiress of Byzantium, carrying out the mission to serve as an obstacle to the arrival of the son of perdition. This delightful moment of absolute sacredness, the greatness of Orthodoxy and the Russian people, embodied in catechone - in confining, in the Russian empire, in my opinion, is that reference point of our Russian greatness - that same Golden Age. But this golden period ended in disarray, when Russian Orthodox people were waiting for the end of the world. But instead of the coming of the Antichrist, the Romanovs came to Russia.
It would seem that the Romanovs did a lot to gather Russia, mobilize the people, and restore statehood. But what did the Romanovs go through to achieve these goals? This dynasty, in fact, simply carried out the desacralization of Russia. Due to it, there was a modernization. This is the abolition of the patriarchate, and the transfer of the capital from Moscow — the third Rome, and the romanized “Russia” instead of sacred Russia. And the church schism that started from the 1666-1667 Council, the book fair, the census of rites and, pushing the people away from the elite, became the peak of the Romanov desacralization.
Of course, the causes of the Russian revolution are more eschatological than the usual explanations of these causes from the point of view of economics, through the connection with population growth or the need for industrialization and development. The Russian people once again wished to return to their original mission of serving as an obstacle to the arrival of the son of perdition, whose features they more and more often observed in the lines of the Russian tsars of the Romanov dynasty. That is why, in my opinion, the Russian revolution, beginning in the fifth year of the 20th century and ending in October of the seventeenth year, was so bloody and so merciless. The Russian people denied that which in its essence denied Russian sacredness. And the revolution was accomplished, awaiting a certain revival of the Russian mission in its entirety.
Of course, the Bolsheviks formally destroyed the monarchy, fought against Russian Orthodoxy. But at the same time, they restored the Russian patriarchate, returned the capital to Moscow - the Third Rome, and began a mobilization project that threw the West into admiration and shock. To compete with this West, the Soviet Union and carried out a dizzying breakthrough.
In the Soviet period, the Russian state again rebuffed this antichrist, who came from the West, but in the format of industrial modernization. However, this project fell due to internal betrayal, and again - as a result of the degeneration of elites.
And again we are faced with the next incarnation of the Antichrist - in the face of the liberals - and again we are now struggling against it with all our strength. But now he has entered our house. And, it seems to me that our salvation is precisely in the striving towards Russian sacredness in its original form - in the form in which it was presented at the time when Holy Russia accepted the mission of the thousand-year kingdom from Byzantium.
Vasily Simchera, Doctor of Economics
All civilizations and empires prospered not only on their own soil, but also on the basis of what the world seized with its ideas and images. And we do not need to be sad that Russia and the Russian civilization as a whole have gone in such cycles, and will go. After all, China, the great Chinese civilization, six times in six thousand years was completely wrecked, but survived.
Russia has always given more than it received. But the nutrient medium, the resource is exhausted: the economic, and demographic, and any other. We stopped giving, and therefore now we are the most hated in the whole world.
We were separated, making money. We are drawn into such matters, into such arguments and into such vile values that are alien to us, and we can only pretend that these values are interesting to us. And those genuine values by which the whole Slavic world lives, and, above all, the Russian world, are rejected from us, betrayed by contempt.
We are not traffickers. We initially lost, because we accepted such a game - dishonest, vile, aimed at losing to us and winning to the opponent.
When we realize this, we will be able to create heaven on earth and embody the thoughts and aspirations that mankind has been bearing for thousands of years. And Russia as an image of kindness, justice, honesty, and in literature, and in philosophy, and in scientific research is best presented. Our man is used to chopping the truth. And they cut off his hands and say: "You are ridiculous with your truth!" But the truth is the highest energy.
Russia survived when righteous wars waged and acted righteously.
Alexander Notin, President of the ANO "Ferry"
Russia is held together by sacredness, a thirst for justice and stateliness. Since such colossal riches and territory can only be kept by the forces of the spiritually selfless sacrificial people brought up in the Orthodox faith, on the one hand, and the sovereign consciousness, on the other hand, this state axis, which holds everything together and illuminates everything, is impossible.
It is necessary to try to unite these forcibly broken branches: our statehood and our sacredness, and at the same time to unite faith and science, religion and progress. We must unite man and God, and bring God back into our lives.
Sergey Batchikov, Chairman of the Board of the Russian Trade and Financial Union
In human life, as in the life of civilization, cycles pass. Once I was in the cycle of the socio-economic formation of understanding history as a change in socio-economic formations - this is a Marxist view of history. Then the reasons for the revolutions in Russia in the twentieth century were clear and clear to me. This is above all the unsolved agrarian question in 1861, when they liberated the peasants, but did not give them their livelihood - the land. And the plan of accelerated industrialization, developed by Witte and adopted in 1897, when the concept of low purchase prices for agricultural products, export to the outside, import of machinery and equipment appeared, and on this basis, accelerated industrialization led to the fact that peasants, hired labor were in the village superfluous. Huge masses of landless peasantry were squeezed into the cities. Migration is one of the elements and one of the reasons for the two major revolutions in Russia.
There was a process of destruction of hired labor in the village, squeezing the solidarity of collectivism, which was in the Russian peasant community. This was superimposed on the Russo-Japanese War, and the masses of landless peasants moved to the cities, to Moscow, primarily the Paveletskaya settlement, where there was a low-skilled production: leather, weaving on the Red Presnya. They 1905 year and raised the Moscow uprising.
Then came Stolypinskaya, as the Marxists said, a reaction. This is an attempt from the Russian peasantry to create a farming class of efficiently working proprietors, which is hardly possible in principle. This I can say from my experience today. My partners and I decided to create a rapeseed production facility in the Nizhny Novgorod region. And we are faced with the fact that we need to import labor from the outside, to exploit it excessively: to be efficient in the conditions of our strip and risky agriculture with a very low surplus product, over-exploitation is necessary.
So, the situation overlapped: the war, the ruin of agriculture, the masses of armed peasants filled the city, which led to the Great October Revolution.
Now there is a period when you realize: there is a struggle of civilizations. And three major revolutions that occurred: Chinese, Mexican, Russian - these are the answers of civilization with traditions to forced colonization by Western European civilization. A sword came to us from the West, and not only the desire to conquer us, to translate us into a dependent state economically and financially. They came to us first of all to destroy our civilization, to take our souls.
Today we need spiritual strengthening of our civilization. In Russia, no one sought to super wealth. Striving for prosperity. It was respected - to live with dignity, in prosperity. And the main direction of our work is to show that the economy is secondary in relation to the spirit of our civilization, to the spirit of our nation.
Sergey Chernyakhovsky, Doctor of Political Sciences
A revolution is a breakthrough in development, a change in the order of things, the main thing in which is creation. A revolution is born when there are problems and they need to be solved. Problem solving can go from above, and can go from below.
Two problems that were at the beginning of the twentieth century, to 1917 year: the essential and civilizational. This is, firstly, the creation of a system of political democracy, a system of social democracy, that is, ultimately, a solution to the issue of justice. The second is the creation of an industrial society, industrial production. The power that existed in Russia could not do it, although certain plans and best practices existed.
The revolution ends not when the leader of the rebels declares himself the new king, not when the last counterrevolutionary is executed. The revolution ends when the tasks are solved. Until then, there are waves of ebb and flow. Since these tasks have not been solved in our country, and, moreover, we have rolled back in the last quarter century in solving them, we have destroyed the bastions of post-industrial production, rolled back in the area of solving problems of justice and social democracy, this will continue until problems are solved. The situation is aggravated by the fact that the world is increasingly connected. If Russia does not solve this from the most different points of view, it will become the prey of those who somehow decide it or will decide it at its expense. In 1979, President Carter, in a televised address to the nation, in effect announced the capitulation of American civilization. A further rise of America and the Western world was made solely by absorbing the resources of the Soviet Union.
That is, either this revolution will be, or there will be no Russia. The first. Power can make a revolution if there is an elite that is ready to take responsibility ... Judging by all the latest data, the main thing that people expect from Putin and what they reproach him for is more decisiveness and is reproached for its lack. Putin has a chance to do it. And then there will be no revolution from below.
The second. Now there is no organized constructive force that could assume responsibility for the country. Putin's rule gives a chance at least for the formation of this force, for it to mature and pick up this movement.
Oleg Rozanov, entrepreneur, head of the Spear Peresvet analytical center
I physically felt the presence of Holy Russia, traditional Russia, here at the exhibition in the Manezh. We see: the tradition can be modernized. This is a high-tech modern exhibition that brings us back to the Russian tradition and makes us proud of our Motherland. The exhibition, which people go to the age of developed capitalism, when we got rid of the queues. No one forces - after all, the deficit does not give. And what is in short supply? In lack of patriotism, in lack of respect for their homeland, in lack of pride in their country.
What is the reason for the Russian revolution? The beginning of the twentieth century, Russia on the rise or, if you want, is at a low start.
Literally, by the year 50, we had to dominate in all branches. We became a leading nation. The British ambassadors wrote to their leaders that they had to do something about it, and they did it. Chaadaev also noted that the Russian elite are Mezheumki who do not belong to either Europe or Asia. We got a non-national elite. Not anti-national, but non-national — these people did not belong to the Russian tradition. They chose a way for themselves - to be, like all European human beings. And the elite produced a terrible destruction of the country. The destruction in the brain took place at the national elite.
What tasks did the first Russian revolution of 1905 solve? I do not see such problems. What were the two 1917 revolutions of the year?
Today, the exhibition recalls the words from the song: "There is a beginning for the revolution, but there is no end for the revolution." I hope that all the same, the end of the Russian revolution of the twentieth century came with Putin’s Valdai speech: enough experiments, you have to create.
We need to restore our ancient traditional content - the Russian civilization beginning, the Orthodox beginning. Then we will be to some extent insured. The revolution must end. I hope that this bloody twentieth century ends 2013 year.
Petr Kalitin, Ph.D.
In the 1913 year - 300 anniversary of the House of Romanov. Genuine triumph. The next rhyme is the 1982 year, the anniversary of the USSR 60 anniversary, these were striking celebrations, where the concept of developed socialism was not just the basis, but the demonstrative thesis about the irreversibility of the socialist process in the USSR And we, as in 1913, began to rest on historical laurels.
I draw your attention to these two rhyming situations on the eve of 1917 and 1991's. The process of building earthly, material, paradise - material wealth began. That very consumer society.
We actually saddled not our territory. But we did not today fall into this whirlpool of haggling. How did we suddenly find ourselves, a great nation, in such fools? But because already in 13, and in 82, we were saturated with consumerism.
It is this, seemingly natural, understandable orientation toward normal human life that led Russia to that eschatologism. This is perhaps one of the main paradoxes of Russian history: the more we want a more beautiful, more normal life, the worse the consequences are. Remember the first time of troubles. The message of Mr Grishka - the messages he bought the Russian people.
This was later reflected in Napoleon’s epistles about the abolition of serfdom. In the understanding of the Russian people, Napoleon became the Antichrist not only because he was going to burn churches. Indeed, in Orthodoxy the Antichrist is not a villain. The Antichrist is a humanist who benefits the old man. The peasant responded to Napoleon with the cudgel of the people's war not to the excesses of the French, but in response to the promises of a beautiful life, which put Napoleon in shock.
The same is the 1991 year. Rallies are notorious: the main idea is to stop feeding the Union republics, the international communist movement, and it’s time to live a normal human life.
Grishka in his epistles expressed the same thing: for a normal life.
The Bolsheviks came not just with slogans - peace, land. The decision of the 6 Congress of the RSDLP - August 1917 of the year: an appeal to democracy, to freedoms and, again, to material benefits, to the fact that everything should be in fairness. The first steps of the Bolsheviks were really designed for the consumer who wants to live in paradise. The world, above all the world. As a result, half of Russia turned out to be in deserters, they were taught this to betrayal: before the oath, before the tsar and the Fatherland. But behind this, too, there was a thirst for a peaceful life: stop fighting, it's time to arrange your nest.
What should we do? We need an anti-consumer manifesto. Or should follow a series of actions - the great failures.
I definitely have a positive attitude towards the exhibition for a very simple reason. As if the 1917 year somehow suddenly collapsed. Such a beautiful story, such a beautiful country, and where did 1917 come from?
Now it turns out again: everything was all right, the country was great. Why is it all collapsed? We fear not just questions, but fear to find out the reasons. Because it concerns each of us. You and I also became consumers, and in our depths we already betrayed our ancestors, who considered anyone who promised them a beautiful life to be the Antichrist.
By overcoming our own betrayal of our tradition, we must begin the process of improving the country and Mother Russia as a whole.
Andrei Zhukov, political scientist
The historical process in Russia resembles a wheel that has three spokes. The fact that the people in Russia are now fragmented, that society has been divided into certain groups, is a manifestation of such a model. Society is divided into three sectors - the liberals, the left and the conservatives.
If you look at the history of Russia, it turned out that the wheel turned, but never all three spokes were carrying. The twentieth century is the century when the wheel turned. The first period after 17 for about ten years, after the civil war, in fact, is the realm of liberalism, then the left realm came. Then liberalism again raised its head and August of 1991 came. Now the era of liberalism is ending: and either we will start the left project, or the conservative one will begin. You can make a forecast - some troubled time or revolution will be in the near future. And the revolution is not necessarily bloody, it is just deep turmoil. This is the first.
The second. The left project has advantages. The left project has a perspective and there is a driving force. China is an external force, it will affect the fact that in Russia left ideas, the left project will dominate.
How does China work? He works for the future, does not threaten anyone, does everything gradually. In 1996-1997 The idea of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was born in Beijing. The SCO is the only organization that can govern throughout Eurasia. The SCO in one form or another was built by all the countries of Central Asia, Iran, Mongolia, Belarus; Turkey is also a member of the SCO project. The SCO is a kind of construction on which a Eurasian civilization can be built. The SCO is a military-political organization.
China first built a military-political organization. China, like a snake, surrounded the borders of Russia, and will gradually squeeze, adjust for itself. China is everywhere on our borders. Probably in years through 20-30, maybe faster, China will be the dominant force in Eurasia, and China carries with it a left-wing project. Not socialist, not communist, but own, leftist.
Putin must be determined. Either he will finally crush liberalism and give this wheel a turn, or something will be in the form of distemper.
Hegumen Alexy, governor of the Assumption Svensky male monastery (Suponevo, Bryansk region)
Our state is like a human being. It contains ideological religiosity as a spiritual component, corporeality in the form of resources given to us by God, and political soulfulness, which is torn between resources and spirituality. What is optimism now? In that we realized our illnesses and go to the doctor. It seems that we already see our diseases. We are already told by the doctor that we must treat in ourselves what to correct. The history has shown us, and the Lord shows us our illness, and the conditions in which we live also talk about our illnesses, and the political throwing between the physical and the spiritual also tells us about our illness.
So, the only thing left is to apply the means of healing. How does it all start? For your personality. After all, when a particular person triumphs in his personal life, over sin, it brings recovery to our whole society.
God forbid, we will follow this path, and we will transform the health in ourselves into the health of our entire state and our entire society.