Military Review

Iran is getting closer!

28
Iran is getting closer!



December 10 to the Islamic Republic of Iran on an official visit arrived Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The visit’s agenda includes issues of settling the Iranian nuclear program in the context of the agreements reached recently in Geneva and the preparation of the Geneva-2 conference on Syria. Also during the visit, the topic of interaction between Russia and Iran in the Caspian Sea will be touched upon. This is especially true before the next, fourth, Caspian summit in the fall of 2014, in Astrakhan. It is likely that the meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who is also scheduled during Sergei Lavrov’s visit, will raise the issue of organizing the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to the Islamic Republic of Iran. As you know, at the Bishkek summit, Hassan Rouhani conveyed to Vladimir Putin an invitation to pay an official visit to Tehran, to which the Russian president agreed. Now the whole question is only in dates.

Before Sergey Lavrov’s visit to Iran, Vladimir Galochkin, head of the Baradaran Name of the Latvian Friends of Iran Society, shared with me an interesting material called “To the visit of Sergey Lavrov to Tehran”. I advise everyone to read this article - it is really interesting. Well, now I will express some of my thoughts.

Fortunately, the development of relations between Russia and Iran is gaining momentum. Lavrov’s visit to Tehran is another confirmation of this. It is worth noting that the same success in the negotiations in Geneva on the Iranian nuclear program is largely the merit of Russia. As a result, Iran pledged to cease uranium enrichment above 5%, suspend the production of plutonium and centrifuges and allow IAEA inspectors to their nuclear facilities, and Russia going to build another nuclear power plant in Bushehr. If cooperation continues at this pace, then complete sanctions against Iran are not far off. Essentially, if all these nuclear misunderstandings (I personally think that Iran’s military nuclear program is not in nature at all) will be settled, then there will be nothing to find fault with Iran. Something, and democracy in the Islamic Republic is at the highest level. The same United States with its two-party system and “electors” on presidential campaigns would have to learn from Iran.



The geopolitical problems associated with Iran, which Sergey Lavrov went to resolve, is, of course, very important. But I would like first of all to touch on economic issues. The fact is that the Iranian market, in which, due to ten-year sanctions, there are practically no serious foreign economic players, is extremely attractive for Russia. As well as the Russian market is attractive for Iran. The profits from the establishment of cooperation only in economic terms for Russia and Iran can amount to trillions of rubles and radically change the entire balance of forces in the Middle East. It is very important that Russia does not blink this chance and would be the first to extend a hand to Iran.

Let's analyze what main areas of cooperation between Russia and Iran would be relevant right now ?! First of all, this is cooperation in the field of armaments. Iran is interested in upgrading its air defense systems. Russia is the supplier of the most modern air defense systems on the world market. In addition to air defense, Iran is also interested in many other modern weapons systems. Cooperation in this regard can bring Russia hundreds of billions of rubles in profits, and Iran can bring security. Iran, in turn, needs to sell its agricultural products - first of all, of course, pistachios. And it may also be interesting to cooperate in the field of trade in hydrocarbons, with which Iran is extremely rich, but which, due to sanctions, are now hard to implement in the foreign market.

It is also possible to start cooperation in the field of high technology. Technoparks are being actively created in Iran. Iranian is already well known in Russia Technopark "Pardis", which in our country was presented at the Innoprom international industrial exhibition. There are many other projects in this area. For example, the aerospace technology park "Kahkeshan". The construction of technology parks is also developing in Russia, and quite large resources are allocated for this from the state. But often it is faced with all sorts of problems associated with difficult Russian realities. As a negative experience, you can consider the Murmansk SEZ. There are many questions to the Moglino special economic zone created in the Pskov region. Even the work of the main technopark of Russia, Skolkovo, raises questions. The Iranians have no such problems.

The idea is that the Iranian experience could be used to develop our technology parks. To begin with, one could take as a basis any Russian SEZ and begin to create in it from scratch a joint Iranian-Russian project of a modern technopark. Of course, having previously protected this SEZ from Russian realities (in the form of a tightly corrupt local government), as well as any other bureaucratic idiocy and self-interest. As a result, Russia would be able to get Iranian investment and unique Iranian experience in this direction, and Iran would have the opportunity to create its enterprises in the zone free from any sanctions.

In conclusion, I would like to point out one thing. Politics is politics, but it is economic cooperation that binds the countries most tightly. The resolution of geopolitical issues related to Iran is certainly important for our country. But at the same time, Russia should now make the greatest possible efforts to develop mutually beneficial strategic cooperation with Iran in the economic sphere. This will allow Russia to gain a foothold in the Middle East, and Iran - to gain access to the European market, which will finally eliminate all external barriers to the development of the Islamic Republic.
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  1. Volkhov
    Volkhov 11 December 2013 07: 29
    -2
    Iran is closer, and the armament and reorganization of the Southern Military District is not against Iran? Or will they build an air bridge for transit to Antarctica?
    1. Sunjar
      Sunjar 11 December 2013 09: 16
      +2
      Do not worry. They are also doing all this. And they didn’t forget about the Antarctic (after all, exactly about the North Pole?) And they are doing it very tightly. The fact that they don’t blow all the pipes is even good - they will pay less attention to it.
      As for "reorganizations" of various kinds, all this is already fed up. As one friend told me: "If they stopped going to the bardel, then change the whores, and not rearrange the beds." And the entire army must be armed and re-equipped. The main thing is to have a competent approach to personnel of all categories.
    2. tinchlik336
      tinchlik336 11 December 2013 10: 23
      0
      About Turkey, a member of NATO, I heard a demagogue?
    3. David_Arius
      11 December 2013 11: 02
      0
      This is more about the situation in Central Asia. With Iran, we now border only the Caspian. Russia in the north of the Caspian Sea, and Iran in the south ...
      1. Andrey57
        Andrey57 11 December 2013 11: 45
        0
        Well, yes - yes, but Iran needs submarines in the Caspian only to repel Western aggression! fellow
        1. David_Arius
          11 December 2013 12: 47
          +2
          Russia and Iran are quite far from each other in the Caspian. They simply have nothing to share there. But with Azerbaijan, Iran has "graters". For this, apparently, Iran has a couple of submarines there, as a deterrent.
        2. The comment was deleted.
    4. The comment was deleted.
  2. makarov
    makarov 11 December 2013 07: 42
    +1
    God forbid, of course ... but whatever would be like an early friendship with China ...
    1. atalef
      atalef 11 December 2013 07: 53
      -1
      Iran agreed to suspend plutonium enrichment (in fact, the construction of a heavy water reactor designed to produce plutonium), and why does Iran need plutonium?
      1. mirag2
        mirag2 11 December 2013 08: 21
        0
        The heavy water reactor is "technically capable of producing" weapons-grade plutonium. This does not mean that it is designed for this.
        1. faraon
          faraon 11 December 2013 12: 25
          -1
          Well, why? in order to have fuel for their reactors, the question is not nuclear reactors and the construction of nuclear power plants, but Iran can acquire nuclear weapons. But the issue of the Caspian has not been resolved between Russia and Iran, and how will Azerbaijan look at it?
          1. alone
            alone 11 December 2013 19: 24
            +2
            Quote: faraon
            But the issue on the Caspian has not been resolved between Russia and Iran, and how will Azerbaijan look at it?

            In the Caspian issue, Azerbaijan, along with Russia and Kazakhstan, have a common position. There, only Iran and Turkmenistan disagree with the Russian proposals for the division of the Caspian.
            1. faraon
              faraon 12 December 2013 03: 18
              0
              Lonely, I meant the creation of nuclear weapons by Iran, and does Azerbaijan need such a neighbor?
      2. velikoros-xnumx
        velikoros-xnumx 11 December 2013 10: 07
        +1
        Quote: atalef
        why do i need plutonium for Iran?

        To conduct experiments to track changes in the gene pool of Drosophila flies in the environment of hard gamma radiation, i.e. purely for scientific purposes wassat
      3. The comment was deleted.
    2. tinchlik336
      tinchlik336 11 December 2013 10: 26
      +1
      Putin doesn’t seem to be Khrushchev
  3. Kyrgyz
    Kyrgyz 11 December 2013 08: 02
    +6
    It is foolish to live in constant expectation of a war with a neighbor, anyway, you should never go anywhere from a neighbor, you have to trade, but in order to avoid the temptations to throw you, you must have strength in the form of an army and eyes in the form of intelligence. So the development of positive relations with Iran is an urgent need, as well as the development of relations with any of the neighbors. If Iran wants to wipe someone off the face of the earth, it’s not a fact that we need to resolve this in the forefront, in the end it’s bravado and rhetoric.
    1. baltika-18
      baltika-18 11 December 2013 11: 27
      -1
      Quote: Kyrgyz
      It is foolish to live in constant expectation of war with a neighbor

      So it is. But .... at the heart of Iran's policy is Khomeini's concept of "creating a great global Islamic society under the auspices of Iran by exporting the Islamic revolution." This concept has not been canceled, and since the fall of the Shah in 1979, the Ayatollahs rule Iran. This is enshrined in the Iranian Constitution, Article 11 "In accordance with the ayah from the Holy Quran, Muslims are considered a single people, the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran must pursue its general policy based on the unity and solidarity of Islamic peoples, as well as strives to implement political, economic and cultural union in the Islamic world. "And another quote by Khomeini" We must make every effort to export the principles of our revolution to the whole world and discard the idea that we will not export our revolution .... "
      Such friends must be kept at a certain distance. A fanatical ayatollah with an atomic bomb is much worse than a monkey with a grenade in a crowded tram.
      1. faraon
        faraon 11 December 2013 12: 33
        0
        These friends must be kept at a certain distance. A fanatical ayatollah with an atomic bomb is much worse than a monkey with a grenade in a crowded tram

        Russia already has the sad experience of exporting the revolution, and what are the consequences that followed after these exports. (Cuba, Vietnam, China, etc., etc.) I think that not stupid people are sitting in the leadership of Iran and they took into account all the positive and the negative experience of exporting revolution will make far fewer mistakes than Soviet Russia, and this is already worth paying attention to.
        1. David_Arius
          11 December 2013 12: 50
          +2
          Only from the UN recognized as the racist of Israel, which also has a couple of hundred warheads with nuclear weapons, and to discuss a nuclear weapon that is not recognized by anyone and does not discriminate against anyone’s rights.
          1. faraon
            faraon 12 December 2013 03: 25
            0
            Iran’s nuclear weapon and no one discriminating against anyone’s rights

            You dear, rummage in the archives during the reign of President Ahmedenjad, where he declared to the whole world whom he should first be wiped off the face of the earth. and as regards rights, one can argue here, but that's another topic.
        2. Kyrgyz
          Kyrgyz 11 December 2013 18: 05
          +1
          Quote: faraon
          Iran is not stupid people and they took into account all the positive and negative experience of exporting the revolution and will make far fewer mistakes than Soviet Russia, and this is already worth paying attention to.

          Absolutely nothing says about it. they survive in an environment unpleasant for themselves, like you, judging by the flag. There is no money, no idea - how will they light a fire in foreign activists?
          1. faraon
            faraon 12 December 2013 03: 30
            0
            Well, it’s not so easy to eat oil, gas, in half a year, if they behave well, they will lift the sanctions and pour cheap oil onto the world markets on the mountain of the Russian Federation. This is where the money for the world Islamic revolution will appear. And there, in the basement, a bomb bombard and remember the whole world sanctions and humiliation. Here is something like this alignment
      2. Kyrgyz
        Kyrgyz 11 December 2013 18: 02
        +1
        Quote: baltika-18
        So it is. But .... at the heart of Iran's policy is Khomeini's concept of "creating a great global Islamic society under the auspices of Iran by exporting the Islamic revolution."

        This is not important, because nonsense for internal use, like the exclusivity of the United States, Zionism with their gentiles, etc. more-less
      3. SV
        SV 11 December 2013 21: 53
        0
        So far, they have not exported anywhere, unlike the Salafists.
        ". This is enshrined in the Iranian Constitution, Article 11"
        The RF Constitution also says a lot ...
        In any case, in the entire history of the existence of our states, Iran has never caused us any particular problems, rather the opposite. Despite all the bravado of the Iranian leadership, this country is currently the least dangerous for the Russian Federation in comparison with neighboring countries (take Turkey as an example). Moreover, if you correctly use the current situation, this country can become a reliable buffer in countering aggression against our country (including Sunni terrorism) and a good economic partner.
  4. alexng
    alexng 11 December 2013 08: 10
    +2
    It seems that Zhirinovsky was right when he initially proposed economic cooperation in the southern direction, but only then the EBN did not obey him.
  5. Grbear
    Grbear 11 December 2013 08: 15
    +4
    A state with an independent policy is always worthy of respect, even if you don't like everything. Iran was still Griboyedov "fought" and Tehran-43 did not appear from scratch. It is better to have, albeit a wayward, but predictable partner than some "political" prostitute.
  6. saag
    saag 11 December 2013 10: 43
    -1
    Is Iran getting closer? In light of his intentions to increase oil sales so much that they will not be stopped by the price of $ 20 per barrel, such "close" are no better than enemies
    1. David_Arius
      11 December 2013 11: 04
      +1
      What Iran may under the conditions of sanctions still have intentions to sell oil ?! They would sell for 10 dollars. Who would buy ... All the blame for the unjustified sanctions against Iran.
      1. Deniska
        Deniska 11 December 2013 12: 18
        0
        So then it would be sold at 10 y. e. But the fact is that when the sanctions are lifted they will be able to sell much more expensive !. And why should they sell for 10-20 y. e when they lived without selling at all.
        1. faraon
          faraon 11 December 2013 12: 48
          -1
          why should they sell for 10-20 y. e when they lived without selling at all

          Remember 1985 when the Saudis put oil on the market at dumping prices, and what followed in particular in Russia. The Saudis didn’t do it at their whim, but from the United States, for which they received their preferences in the oil trading market. Iran. Moreover, in the current economic situation, it has no choice but to replenish its budget by protecting its carbon.
      2. faraon
        faraon 11 December 2013 12: 42
        -1
        . The blame for the unjustified sanctions against Iran

        If the sanctions are lifted, it will hit the Russian budget a lot, imagine for a moment that a lot of oil will be spilled on the market at bargain prices, and remember the period from 1985 to 2005, so it will be a repetition only to the greater detriment of the Russian economy.
        Immediately covered with a copper basin all the gaining momentum of social programs to help the population,) this is education, medicine, pensions, benefits, etc.), in my opinion it is necessary to modernize the country from transfer from a raw materials appendage of Europe to a highly technological power that will trade with other countries its technology, and not depend on oil and gas. That's then you can advocate for the lifting of sanctions.
        1. David_Arius
          11 December 2013 12: 56
          +1
          The fact is that just after the lifting of sanctions, Iran will trade oil at world prices (Iran is dumping it now so that at least someone buys their oil). Iranian oil exports focus on China. Whereas the strategic market for Russia is the European Union. So the Russian Federation and Iran are not competitors in oil matters. Competitors except for gas. But Iran, as it supplied gas to Turkey and Armenia, will supply it there. It seems like before Russia it didn’t do much harm.
        2. The comment was deleted.
    2. regdan
      regdan 11 December 2013 12: 52
      +1
      Publish lists of idiots selling oil for $ 20 per barrel. I want to look at them, taking into account that the consumer basket is growing in price.
  7. saag
    saag 11 December 2013 11: 12
    0
    Quote: David_Arius
    What Iran may under the conditions of sanctions still have intentions to sell oil ?!

    After 6 months, these sanctions can be lifted, and then they will have the opportunity
    1. David_Arius
      11 December 2013 11: 33
      +2
      After lifting the sanctions, Iran will trade oil at world prices. In another way.
  8. tnship2
    tnship2 11 December 2013 13: 09
    +1
    Of course, you need to be friends and trade. Persians are Persians, what kind of policies you don’t pursue — they will remain on your mind. Here on the forum there were sound thoughts that all the fuss in the south was confined mainly against China. As long as we look south at our side hemorrhoids are growing in the west. Creeping European integration. Almost freebies are trying to absorb the economy of our brotherly country that is not yet completely dead. Western Ukraine is not all Ukraine. By the way, does western Ukraine produce any of what you can buy for money? Well, if you do not take into account agricultural holdings, maybe some.
  9. vlad52-t
    vlad52-t 11 December 2013 13: 14
    0
    You need to trade with Iran, any expansion of markets for the good. That would only be what. The author of the article is rather weak in this matter. In addition to weapons and pistachios nothing good.
    1. David_Arius
      11 December 2013 14: 45
      +1
      Why is weak? Weapons from Russia. Pistachios and other agricultural products from Iran. + joint development of technology parks and the Iranian fuel and energy complex. This is now the most relevant. Profit from this alone will amount to hundreds of billions of rubles. Moreover, you can start at least tomorrow.

      And do not need sarcasm about Iranian pistachios and agriculture. This is a multi-billion dollar market that has not yet been developed by anyone outside Iran. The fact is that, for example, Iranian pistachios are very unlike what is now sold in stores for crazy money with us and is also called pistachios.
      1. alone
        alone 11 December 2013 19: 30
        0
        Quote: David_Arius
        And do not need sarcasm about Iranian pistachios and agriculture. This is a multi-billion dollar market that has not yet been developed by anyone outside Iran. The fact is that, for example, Iranian pistachios are very unlike what is now sold in stores for crazy money with us and is also called pistachios.


        Have you been to Iran? Have you seen the condition people live there. As soon as it ends
        some big city begins to obscurity and obscurantism. And do not worry about the Iranian market. As long as the powers that be in Russia were about the West, the entire Iranian market is captured by the Chinese, who buy huge quantities of Iranian oil for the yuan. So an attempt to enter the Iranian market is bite seeds.
        1. tinchlik336
          tinchlik336 12 December 2013 00: 36
          0
          You deceive, dear. I was in Iran. Both in cities and in rural areas: http://sajjadi.livejournal.com/205170.html
          Self-assured yap!
  10. saag
    saag 11 December 2013 14: 25
    0
    Quote: David_Arius
    After lifting the sanctions, Iran will trade oil at world prices

    yeah, only with the increase in supply, the price of goods begins to fall
    1. David_Arius
      11 December 2013 14: 40
      +1
      China and India, the main buyers of Iranian oil, are growing in annual demand. At the same time, Iran is selling them oil, but at dumping prices. After lifting the sanctions, Iran will stop dumping. At the same time, Iran is unlikely to increase oil supplies to the world market by more than 2 times - now Iran’s resources aren’t really so good (thirty years of sanctions, after all) + the domestic demand for oil products in Iran is also great and nowhere this is not to be avoided. As a result, Iran will still receive a significant increase in budget revenues. But this will not affect world oil prices, since even Iran’s doubled share (but already without dumping) in the world oil trade will be small anyway. And the increase in the share of Iran will be slow after the renewal of fixed assets in Iranian oil production and the development of new fields.
      1. faraon
        faraon 12 December 2013 03: 39
        0
        So I just can’t understand what side Russia needs it from? There will be money from Iran, the funds will be updated immediately, the campaign will begin to develop new deposits. China is already starting to cross the line of the permissible USA. Now a new platform is being prepared in Vietnam for a global consumer goods factory. draw conclusions dear