In fact, it has been said and written many times that none of the ways of recruitment have any progressiveness, nor perplexity, or wretchedness. It is unlikely that anyone will be able to prove that Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Papua New Guinea, Gambia (they have “professional” armies) are more developed and progressive countries than Norway, Finland, South Korea, Switzerland (they have armies conscription). Moreover, in the past two years, the Austrians and the Swiss in national referendums spoke in favor of maintaining the draft, and in Norway even women were called upon. Manning method is actually determined by the tasks facing the sun, and nothing more. But since it is precisely in this issue that the military and civilians are in the greatest contact, political importance is often attached to manning, which can cause direct harm to the interests of the Armed Forces and, consequently, to the country as a whole.
It is clear that the Armed Forces of each country solve their own problems, that is, each case is individual. In particular, individual cases of Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
FROM LEADERS TO OUTSIDERS
If we compare the starting conditions with the result, then neither Tajikistan, nor Kyrgyzstan, nor Moldova, namely Ukraine is the most failed of all 15 states that have emerged in the place of the USSR.
She simply had to become the most successful of the former Soviet republics, but in reality she now has a good chance to drop out of the top ten in terms of development among 15 members of the former “family of fraternal peoples”.
In particular, this applies to military construction. At the beginning of 1992, the country received by far the best part of the USSR Armed Forces. Since then, the Ukrainian army has been in a state of "free fall", turning into a collapse. Suffice it to say that for the entire period of independence, she did not receive new equipment (except 10 tanks T-84). Given that the country has got more than 700 enterprises of the Soviet military-industrial complex, this situation is simply prohibitive. Due to the lack of domestic orders, even those enterprises of the military-industrial complex, which so far have managed to survive due to export, are beginning to experience big problems. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are approximately in the state in which the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation were from the mid-90s to the middle of the zero years - lack of money and almost complete lack of combat training.
To this is added the fact that the army, to put it mildly, is unpopular in Ukrainian society. Therefore, the abolition of conscription is first and foremost a political move by Viktor Yanukovych before the presidential election, which will take place at the beginning of 2015. Viktor Fedorovich cannot boast successes in the economy and social sphere, so at least the call was canceled.
As for the question of the practical feasibility of abolishing the draft, the Ukrainian leadership is pointless to ask him - it has no idea why the country needs the army, and therefore does not know which way of recruitment suits it best.
The draft army is necessary for the state if there is a serious threat of external aggression for it. In the event of such aggression, the “professional” army instantly collapses due to lack of motivation — it’s not the money to fight, but only a conscript army can be for their homeland. But, first, the population of Ukraine has a huge problem with national identification and, therefore, with motivation, therefore it is difficult to expect a sharp desire from conscripts to shed blood for the country. Secondly, Ukraine’s aggression is nowhere to be expected.
True, Western neighbors (Hungary and Romania) are leading aggression against Ukraine today: they distribute their passports to citizens of Ukraine living in territories that previously belonged to these countries. Citizens of “Square” take other people's passports with pleasure. To fight this military means is useless. Of course, you can theoretically imagine how the neighbors will go to war against Ukraine in order to protect their new citizens, but theoretically. The ability of the Romanians to war has long passed on the category of satire and humor. In addition, the Romanian Armed Forces are also unique in the extreme archaic nature of technology. Until now, all their 853 tanks are T-55 and their local modifications, all 98 combat aircraft are MiG-21. A small number of T-72 and MiG-29, obtained from the USSR at the end of 80-x, the Romanians quickly and successfully ditched to complete non-recoverability.
The situation in the Hungarian Armed Forces is not much better. Today only 150 T-72 tanks (of which 120 are in storage) and 14 Swedish Grippen fighters are on their arms. The number of personnel reduced to 22 thousand. Accordingly, it is difficult to expect aggression from Romania and Hungary, the development trajectory of their armed forces is approximately the same as that of the Ukrainian armed forces - confidently down.
No less difficult to imagine Turkish aggression against Ukraine. Of course, the Turkish Armed Forces are much stronger than the Ukrainian ones, but the Black Sea is a very serious water barrier. In addition, for such aggression there are no clear goals, the problem of the Crimean Tatars for Ankara is not something that is not on the first, but not even on the 20-th place in the list of its foreign policy priorities.
As for Russia, Ukraine is not capable of resisting it in all respects. Today, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have received a very significant superiority over the quantity and quality of equipment and level of combat training over the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But the main thing is not even in this, but in the fact that for a significant part of the population of Ukraine “Russia” is the “own” country.
WHAT ARMY NEEDS KIEV
Accordingly, it makes no sense for Ukraine to have a conscript army, for which there is still no money. On the "professional", however, they are all the more absent, because such is much more expensive, whatever her adherents lied about on this matter. But in the case of Ukraine, this factor will not become a serious problem. It is precisely because the army is not needed that no one will be frightened by a significant reduction in its size or the lumpenization of personnel. The cost of maintaining personnel can hardly be increased, and the number of equipment can be further reduced, all the more so since it fails so quickly due to the exhaustion of the resource.
In addition, we must remember that the "professional" army is not suitable for protecting the country from external aggression, but it is very convenient for police operations. Its main task will be the removal of the remnants of Ukrainian liberalism. Thanks to a further radical reduction in the number of personnel and equipment, there will be enough money for its maintenance. The money allowance of the Ukrainian contractor is several times lower than that of his Russian counterpart, but then the standard of living in the country is also lower.
Moreover, Kiev will have the opportunity to bring the army to partial self-sufficiency, using it in the very fashionable UN peacekeeping operations and NATO in Africa and Asia. The current peacekeeping contingents almost always turn out to be completely incapacitated, because Western peacekeepers do not want to fight, and African and Asian cannot. The use of the Ukrainian army is ideal. On the one hand, its soldiers, unlike the "real" Europeans, do not feel sorry for anyone, on the other - they still have a higher level of training than most armies of developing countries (at least African). UN and NATO pay pretty well for such operations. At the same time, Ukrainian “pros” will gain experience in dealing with civilians and rebel groups, which can be useful in their own country.
And even the change of power in Ukraine will change little. Firstly, there is no reason to think that the new government will be better. Secondly, the economic situation is so bad that it will have to be corrected for many years. Thirdly, and most importantly, the internal division of Ukraine is so strong that it will be extremely difficult to solve the problem of identity in the foreseeable future. And this in itself makes military construction difficult. To set tasks for an army, one must at least understand which country this army belongs to. In Ukraine, this issue is not resolved and the prospects for its solution are not visible.
Thus, the abolition of the call can be considered a logical solution for the current Ukrainian leadership. Only there is absolutely nothing to envy. Ukraine for us is a wonderful example of how not to do it.
MILITARY REFORMS IN THE CENTER OF EURASIA
With Kazakhstan, everything is much more complicated. It is just - an accomplished state, for the post-Soviet period, which far surpassed Ukraine in terms of development. Of course, this also applies to the field of military construction. The leadership of the country pays great attention to the development of the Armed Forces. Astana seeks to not depend on anyone too much in the development of the Armed Forces, trying to import weapons and equipment from different countries, as well as create their own military-industrial complex (from the former Soviet country received almost nothing). Moreover, technologically Kazakhstan is also tied to different countries.
Kazakhstan will organize (or has already begun) the production of Turkish “Cobra” armored cars, European EC-145 multi-purpose helicopters. Eight European C-295 transport aircraft were purchased instead of the outdated An-26. In service there are American "Hummers" and British "Land Rovers". Kazakhstan is modernizing its Su-27 in Belarus, and from there it receives automated control systems for various purposes. Nevertheless, for the time being, a predominant orientation towards Russia remains. In particular, Kazakhstan is now the exclusive owner of the Terminator BMPT.
Kazakhstan became, apparently, the first post-Soviet country where the formation of a professional sergeant corps, the only truly effective means of fighting hazing, began. Here, the military police, which protects all the main military objects and law and order in the units, has been created and successfully functions for a long time. Sun sharply reduced the number of personnel, hired contractors and improved conditions of service. And they achieved that the call became actually competitive. Every draft campaign in local military registration and enlistment offices can be observed sobbing recruits and their parents: the guy was not called! For him, it is an eternal shame and loss of rights.
Now there will be no one to cry. How this is correct is an extremely difficult question. The fact is that the geopolitical position of Kazakhstan and, accordingly, the set of potential opponents is peculiar.
Kazakhstan is more Europeanized and economically more prosperous than its southern neighbors. In addition, there is a much higher proportion of the Slavic population, and the Kazakhs themselves are less Islamized than residents of other Central Asian countries. Nevertheless, a certain “creeping” Islamization does occur. This process can be significantly accelerated after the withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan, after which the probability of the Taliban expansion to the north will be high. In this case, the armed forces of Kazakhstan and Russia should become the main obstacle for this expansion, trying to stop it in the territories of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. For such operations, the contract army is really better than a draft. It is also more suitable for UN peacekeeping operations, in which Astana is showing significant interest.
The version of the war between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan seems frankly surrealistic, but in Astana it is taken seriously. The demographic potential of Uzbekistan is almost twice as high as that of Kazakhstan, and the social tension in the neighboring country is great. For totalitarian regimes (such as the regime of Islam Karimov) in some cases external aggression turns out to be a more preferable option than civil war. If Islamists come to power in Uzbekistan (which is by no means impossible), war becomes almost inevitable.
On the other hand, the current Uzbek army is very similar to the Ukrainian one. For the entire post-Soviet period, she did not receive any new technology. At the same time, Uzbekistan received far less equipment from the USSR than Ukraine, and it is serviced even worse than in Ukraine, therefore it fails faster. Consequently, in the variant of the classic war “army against army”, the Uzbek army the further, the less dangerous for Kazakhstan, and if Uzbekistan Islamizes, the army is likely to disintegrate completely, and fighting the terrorist groups, as in the case of the Taliban, Kazakhstan is easier will lead by contract forces.
As for China, for him Kazakhstan is an ideal direction of expansion, since it has a very large territory with a small population, as well as a huge amount of natural resources. In addition, taking control of Kazakhstan, Beijing puts the geopolitical "mate" Moscow. At the same time, it is clear that they will not be able to provide serious resistance to the PLA of the Armed Forces of Kazakhstan alone, regardless of how they are completed: China is fully capable of mobilizing an army that will be two to three times the largest population of Kazakhstan in terms of personnel. And hope Astana will have only the help from Russia.
So, most likely, the Kazakh leadership also behaved logically - it does not have much sense to keep the draft army. But this is no example for us, because we have other geopolitical conditions.