Military Review

About the “bomb” that China exploded on November 20 2013 of the year

36
About the “bomb” that China exploded on November 20 2013 of the yearSince November 21, the publication of a well-known economic analyst and blogger, Michael Snyder, under the headline "China has declared that it is stopping saving American dollars."


Michael Snyder's Publication

We quote: “China blew up a real bomb, but the mainstream media in the US almost completely ignored this. The Central Bank of China has decided that "the accumulation of foreign currency no longer meets the interests of China." The article by Michael Snyder predicts the serious consequences of this decision for the United States. According to Snyder, this is a “bomb” that, if it does not destroy America, it will cause enormous damage to it. Is everything as it is claimed by the American analyst?

The “explosion” of the “bomb” itself, according to Snyder, occurred on November 20. Made his deputy chairman of the People’s Bank of China, speaking at an economic forum at Tsinghua University. "China no longer prefers an increase in foreign exchange reserves," - quoted by the official news agency Bloomberg. According to him, strengthening the yuan brings people of China more good than harm.

It is strange that Snyder, an experienced blogger (The Economic Collapse blog) and a subtle analyst, was so emotional about the official’s statement. In our opinion, there is nothing particularly sensational in his words.

First, statements of this kind (always - in a very careful form) were made in China before, but they did not lead to anything. Since the end of 1970's. China's foreign exchange reserves grew steadily. It is possible to count short periods (months, sometimes quarters) on hand, during which the accumulation of currency was suspended.

Secondly, the last statement sounds very vague. Nothing, for example, says about the time from which the Central Bank of China will stop buying foreign currency. Yes, and the phrase "China no longer prefers to increase foreign exchange reserves" seems deliberately florid.

Thirdly, if the central banks and treasuries of one or another country stop buying US treasury securities and even reduce the reserves of the US currency, they usually do not state this publicly. For example, the Bank of Russia for the period from the end of January 2013 to the end of July reduced the volume of US Treasury stocks from $ 164,4 billion to $ 131,6 billion, that is, in six months it reduced its portfolio of US treasury bonds to $ 32,8 billion. or on 20%. And did it, mind you, without any fuss.

China in the iron arms of the dollar

The fact that the huge and ever-growing foreign exchange reserves have become a headache for the leadership of the Central Bank and the Chinese government cannot be said much. According to estimates by the Bloomberg agency, over the period from the end of 2004 to the end of 2012, China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 721% and reached 3,3 trillion. If at the end of 2004, China accounted for 14% of world gold reserves, by the end of 2012, this figure increased to 30,2%. According to agency estimates, at the end of 2012, the US currency in the gold reserves accounted for more than 2 trillion. Doll.

At the end of the third quarter of 2013, they already amounted to 3,66 trillion. dollars, which exceeds the annual GDP of a country like Germany. China does not disclose the structure of its international reserves by type of currency. However, from time to time, the People’s Bank of China organizes “leaks” of information on this issue. This information first appeared in September 2010. The official economic publication China Securities Journal reported that as of the middle of 2010, two thirds of reserves (65%) were placed in US dollars, 26% in euro, 5% in pounds sterling and 3% in Japanese yen. Later, expert assessments appeared, according to which the share of US currency in China’s reserves is approximately at the level of 2010 of the year. At the same time, representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB) recognized that the share of the euro in China’s international reserves is extremely small. It should be borne in mind that today the People’s Bank of China has concluded agreements on currency swaps (exchange of national currency units) with about 20 countries. And the currencies of these countries are represented in the reserves of the NBK.

The dollar has been and remains the main currency in China’s international reserves. The United States is China’s main trading partner, all Sino-US trade is conducted in dollars. Since China has a steadily positive balance in trade with the United States, there is a continuous accumulation of the American currency in the gold reserves of the PRC.

China's dollar reserves are nothing more than US Treasury notes that are extremely difficult to “merge.” China is trying to do this by directing part of its reserves to special (sovereign) funds, which can place currency not only in treasury securities and on bank deposits, but also in stocks and shares of foreign enterprises in the real sector of the economy. However, the United States and other Western countries in every way impede such investments, impose various restrictions and prohibitions on investments by sovereign funds under the pretext of “protecting national security”. There are suspicions that China is trying to convert some of its international currency reserves into gold and that the reserves of gold in the reserves are not 1 thousand tons (official data of China), but several times more. At the same time, the overwhelming part of China’s foreign exchange dollar reserves does not work, or rather, it works, but in the interests not of China, but of America, which receives practically free loans from the Middle Kingdom.

About some "mines" of Chinese production

If we even talk about the "bombs" that China blew up or prepared for an explosion as part of its confrontation with the United States, then this, of course, is not a statement by the Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of China dated November 20. This statement can be compared with the explosion of a firecracker. However, there have been quite a few “bombs” over the past three years. They have not yet exploded, but sooner or later they will explode. It is more correct to call them time bomb. Here are some of them:

1. The decision of the People’s Bank of China, adopted in the summer of 2010, to return the “floating regulated rate” regime of the yuan.

2. The adoption in 2011 of the next, 12-th five-year plan for the social and economic development of China. It sets forth the task of making the yuan an international currency. True, a detailed decoding of what should be understood by the status of "international currency" and algorithms for solving this problem is not contained in the plan.

3. Reaching China with a number of countries of agreements on the transition to the use of national currencies in mutual trade. Among them, the agreement of China with Japan, providing for the use of only the yuan and the yen in mutual settlements, should be especially emphasized. From other currencies (including the US dollar) the parties refuse. There is an agreement on the mutual use of national currencies in settlements between China and Russia.

4. The People’s Bank of China has concluded agreements with central banks of a number of countries (about 20 in total) on currency swaps, i.e. exchange of national currency to facilitate mutual settlements without the use of the US dollar.

5. Achievement at the end of 2011 - the beginning of 2012. the agreement between China and Iran on payments for oil supplied to China, in RMB. A parallel agreement with Russia that such calculations will be carried out with the mediation of Russian banks.

6. Appeal of 6 in September 2012 of Beijing to all countries - suppliers of oil to China with a proposal to carry out calculations for oil in yuan (the main suppliers of oil to China are Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela, Angola, Russia, Oman, Sudan).

7. The statement of the Central Bank of Australia that it plans to convert 5% of its international reserves into Chinese treasury bonds (this was preceded by Chinese-Australian negotiations).

8. The agreement reached in October 2013 between Beijing and London that the London exchange will begin currency trading of the yuan - pound sterling, as well as the permission of the British authorities to Chinese banks to open their branches in the City of London. British-Chinese agreements actually provide for the transformation of London into a kind of offshore Chinese banks and financial companies. Earlier, similar agreements were concluded by China with Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan.

9. In November 2013 was announced by the President of the Shanghai Futures Exchange to launch a new financial instrument - a futures oil contract denominated in RMB. It is assumed that this tool will circulate in the East Asian region.

10. A closed plenum of the CPC Central Committee in November 2013, which discussed China’s plan for social and economic reforms for the period to 2020. The final document published after the plenary session states that one of the priorities of China’s economic policy is to turn the yuan into an international currency. An important means of achieving this goal is the earliest possible transition to full currency convertibility of the yuan.

Each of the above steps is indeed a time bomb. The explosions of these “mines” can change the world beyond recognition. Each of these steps deserves a separate analysis. Here, for example, Beijing’s appeal to oil suppliers with a proposal to proceed to calculations in yuan, made by 6 of September of 2012. Lindsay Williams, who disclosed this secret information, called it a sensation of the XXI century. In his opinion, 6 of September 2012 of the year can be interpreted as the date of China’s “nuclear strike” on America and the Federal Reserve, as the “beginning of the end” of the petrodollar standard that existed for almost 40 years. Of course, L. Williams, like Michael Snyder, creates an artificial sensation effect. Of course, no “nuclear strike” on America and the Federal Reserve 6 of September 2012 was applied. Just another time bomb was laid.

All the above steps are aimed, on the one hand, at releasing China from the iron embrace of the American dollar, on the other - at turning the yuan into an international currency. True, in the Chinese leadership there are big differences on how to achieve these goals and what is meant by the "international" yuan. It was for this reason that it was decided to make the last plenum of the CPC Central Committee closed. Judging by a number of signs, there was a very heated discussion and the struggle between “marketers” and “statesmen” continued. "Market leaders" slowly but surely drag the rope in their direction, although the "statesmen" do not add up weapons. The wording of the final document is rather blurred, however it is difficult not to notice a tendency towards further liberalization of China’s economic policy.

The logic of the Chinese liberals

Let's return to the statement of the Deputy Chairman of the People’s Bank of China on 20 in November of this year. Its meaning becomes clearer if we compare it with a statement that a few days before this was made by the NBK Chairman Zhou Xiaochuan. He said that the Central Bank "basically" abandons foreign exchange intervention. Such statements were not made by officials of the Central Bank of China from the moment when the fixed exchange rate of the yuan was canceled. Let me remind you that before 2005, the yuan had a fixed rate against the US dollar and other freely convertible currencies. At the same time, the course was clearly underestimated, which stimulated the export of Chinese goods to the world market, including the United States. It was the undervalued yuan that became an important reason for China’s victorious march through the world; it generated an active balance of the country's trade and payments balance. Under pressure from the United States and other competing countries, Beijing was forced to abandon the fixed exchange rate of the yuan and switched to the regime of the so-called floating regulated rate of the national currency. First of all, this regime stipulated that fluctuations in the exchange rate of the yuan should be minimal (so as not to disorganize national production and trade). Secondly, the yuan should still be a “cheap” currency. And this requires the so-called foreign exchange intervention. By them is meant the banal purchase of “green paper” by the Central Bank of China, i.e. creation of artificially high demand for US currency. Hence, the overvalued dollar and the undervalued yuan. However, the central banks of all countries of the periphery of world capitalism do this.

The logic of the Chinese liberals is very simple: China does not need a stable and “cheap” yuan. It costs the country too much, because have to deal with the constant buying up of US currency and the accumulation of reserves. Absolutely "free" yuan does not require large reserves. Thus, the country's leadership will disappear headache, which tormented him for many years. And the liberals would like to put an end to this.


Possible consequences of the "liberation" of the yuan

We will not put an end to where Chinese liberals would like to do, but continue to look at the chain of causal relationships:

1. The “free” yuan will begin its rapid rise, from the “cheap” it will quickly become “expensive.”

2. An appreciation of the yuan will reduce the international competitiveness of Chinese goods. Quite quickly there will be a reduction in exports, an increase in imports. China's trade surplus from a positive will quickly turn into a negative one.

3. The current tremendous gold and currency reserves of China in a few years become similar to how March snow turns into a wet puddle.

4. Chinese enterprises, deprived of markets, will stop, and millions and tens of millions of workers will be on the street. The real economy will begin to degrade rapidly.

5. In order to prevent the bankruptcy of enterprises, and the state to import vital goods, China will have to resort to the help of foreign lenders and investors.

6. Such "help" will be willingly provided by the West. As a result, the assets of the Chinese economy will pass into the hands of transnational corporations, and in terms of the level of foreign government debt, China will look worse than today's Greece.

7. China, after dismantling foreign exchange regulation on capital transactions, can be completely unprotected against the impact of global financial crises. Speculators like Soros can start playing short of the yuan. China may need foreign exchange reserves to counter financial speculators, but they will not.

8. The yuan will very quickly become a weak currency, losing even some of the signs of the “international currency” that it has now, in the 2013 year. Moreover, such a weakness of the yuan will not greatly depend on whether the dollar retains its position or not. The yuan will be weak relative to the currencies of those countries that will keep the real economy.

Japan's sad experience

Here you can recall the sad fate of Japan, which two decades ago seriously thought that the yen could become equal to the US dollar or even replace it. By the way, in many of the relative economic indicators, then Japan looked even better than today's China. Today, Japan is still in the "seven" of the leading economically developed countries of the world, but already on the sidelines.

Let us return once more to the final document of the last plenum of the CPC Central Committee. It emphasizes the need for the speedy monetary liberalization of China’s capital operations. Simply put, Chinese and foreign investors in order to conduct cross-border operations (export and import of capital) should not have any difficulty converting the yuan into foreign currencies, as well as foreign currencies into the yuan.

Why such a rush? Apparently, the Chinese liberals are counting a chess game for more than one move. They are aware that in the event of a liberal exchange rate of the yuan, the country will very quickly lose export earnings, with all the ensuing consequences. They are aware and expect that export earnings will be replaced by money from foreign investors. The latter, of course, need full conversion of the yuan - not only to invest their dollars and euros in the Chinese economy, but also to easily withdraw investment income in the same dollars and euros from the country. However, the task of replacing export earnings with foreign investment is extremely difficult. Suffice it to say that in 2012, revenues from Chinese exports amounted to about 2 trillion. dollars, and the inflow of foreign direct investment in the Chinese economy - only 120 billion dollars. No currency liberalization is not able to provide full replacement. At least for the reason that there is no such volume of direct international investment in the world. In the same 2012, direct cross-border investment amounted to only 1,3 trillion in aggregate. Doll.

As world experience shows, the complete liberalization of capital operations in the periphery of world capitalism usually leads to the fact that not strategic investors rush into the country, but speculators with their hot money. Such "investors" do not develop the economy, but gnaw its assets and destabilize the work of the surviving enterprises. Full liberalization of capital operations, carried out at the end of 1980-x - the beginning of 1990-x. in a number of ASEAN countries, then called the "Asian tigers", led to the fact that these "tigers" began to turn into pathetic cats. The full fruits of the liberalization of capital movements were manifested during the financial crisis in Southeast Asia in 1998. It caused incalculable damage to the economies of the former "tigers" ...

At the November plenum of the CPC Central Committee, emphasis was placed on enhancing the export of capital from China. To increase the efficiency of such export, we really need a strong yuan. After the cancellation of the regime of the regulated exchange rate of the yuan, the rate of the Chinese monetary unit will go up for a while. I do not know how long such a rise will continue. Maybe a year or two, but hardly more. During this time, capital should be withdrawn from China and placed in financial and non-financial assets of other countries. It seems that the Chinese liberals are preparing to escape capital (and at the same time theirs themselves) from the country of "victorious socialism." A high-minded talk about the yuan as an "international currency" and about currency liberalization, Chinese liberal officials need only to escape from the country. By the way, according to the data of the international public organization Global Financial Integrity (GFI), for the first ten years of the 21st century, capitals worth 2,74 trillion were illegally exported from China. dollars Only in 2010, the illegal export of capital amounted to 420 billion dollars, which is approximately equal to ¼ of the total export earnings of China in the same year. The withdrawal of capital from China is fraught with risks for its organizers and beneficiaries (corrupt officials and related businessmen). It is these shadow capital exporters who primarily lobby for the rapid abolition of any restrictions on the export of capital, the conversion of the yuan and its transformation into a “strong” currency.

On the fears of Michael Snyder

Once again, back to the article by Michael Snyder. He is American. Therefore, he is most concerned about the consequences of the cessation of further accumulation of dollars by the People’s Bank of China for America. In his opinion, the brunt of the Chinese "bomb" will fall on the United States. America has not had time to recover from the events in October of this year. Let me remind you that budget financing was suspended in the country, since the US Congress did not adopt the federal budget for the next financial year. And it was not adopted first of all because the state has exhausted the limit of borrowing. The October events showed how unstable the well-being of a well-fed America. It depends on countries like China that regularly buy US Treasury bonds. On October of this year. every tenth dollar of such bond borrowing was from China. To lose all borrowing for America to 1 / 10 is very sensitive. In addition, China may be followed by other "donors" Uncle Sam. Depriving the US treasury of food from China could lead to a sharp increase in interest rates on US government bonds, which would entail a lot of trouble for the US economy. For example, a significant increase in the share of so-called interest expenses (expenditures on servicing the public debt) in the federal budget. The rise in price of credits and loans will also become inevitable, which will put an end to the goals of restoring the American economy proclaimed under the program of “quantitative easing”.

Yes, Michael Snyder and other Americans have something to worry about. However, China today can no longer be regarded as the main cause of America’s troubles. The fact is that since September last year, the US Federal Reserve has launched the third program of “quantitative easing” (CU). Its official goal is to rebuild the American economy, hit by the financial crisis and reduce unemployment to safe levels. To do this, every month the Fed casts 85 billion dollars into the financial and banking sector through buying out mortgage-backed securities (for 40 billion dollars) and US treasury bonds (for 45 billion) in the secondary market from US banks. "Quantitative easing" led to the fact that the Federal Reserve was the main buyer of treasury securities in the last year. Foreign central banks and other buyers had very little. Why in the last year such a sharp turn was made in the direction of the Fed is difficult to say now. Maybe because Washington decided to insure against possible boycotts from the Central Bank of other countries. It follows: even if the statement of a high-ranking official of the People’s Bank of China on November 20 will be implemented, i.e. The Central Bank of China will stop completely buying American securities, and America’s immediate collapse will not happen. The collapse of America can happen, but for another reason - because the Federal Reserve will not be able to withstand the overloads caused by the need to buy huge amounts of US Treasury bonds.

Hard times are waiting for China

But for China, stopping the accumulation of dollars is suicidal. The Chinese economy is like an airplane that has been circling for a long time in the air, because the pilot does not see a convenient platform on which to land. Fuel is running out, and there is a danger that the plane will crash to the ground. Decisions on stopping the accumulation of dollars to Beijing could be made only if he had a spare airfield on which to land a plane called the Chinese economy. Under this "airfield" should be understood the domestic market of the Middle Kingdom. The Chinese leadership has long realized this and in the past decade has made weak attempts to reorient industry and other sectors of the economy to meet domestic demand and create a single national economic complex. However, the country continued to move along the track, into which it was still at the end of the 70's - the beginning of the 80's. the last century tightened the West. The country could not go on the rails of independent economic development. China has neither had a domestic market, nor has it, and therefore it is so dependent on foreign markets and the US dollar.

Apparently, at the November (2013) plenary session of the CPC Central Committee, the plans to reorient the Chinese economy to the domestic market were put to the cross. The Chinese leadership has decided to continue the course towards further integration of China into the global economy, but the nature of this integration is changing before our very eyes. Since Deng Xiaoping, for three decades, China has been conquering global commodity markets. The country has become a "world workshop", serving half the world. China revealed a dependent type of industrial capitalism, which retained socialist rhetoric. By "socialism" in China is meant the eastern form of state capitalism. After the global financial crisis, from about the 2010 year, an unpleasant thing for Beijing was fully revealed: China’s extensive exploration of world commodity markets has been exhausted. A slowdown in the economic development of the Middle Kingdom began, not yet catastrophic, but alarming. In 2010-2011 The Chinese party-state leadership conducted a painful search for a way out of the emerging deadlock. The 12 five-year plan, adopted in 2011, implicitly reflected the adjustment of the country's economic course: an orientation toward the rapid development of the domestic financial market, the gradual opening of this market to the outside world, and the development and conquest of world financial markets. China’s leaders have set about transforming industrial capitalism into financial capitalism.

And financial capitalism has long been established in the countries of the “golden billion”. The West and, above all, the United States do not need a competitor in the form of Chinese financial capitalism. China’s creation of its own internal financial market, the partial internationalization of the yuan, and full monetary and financial liberalization will only accelerate the conquest of the Middle Kingdom by the grants of Western financial capital. It is likely that China will face tough times in the coming years.
Author:
Originator:
http://www.fondsk.ru/
36 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.

I have an account? Sign in

  1. S-200
    S-200 3 December 2013 15: 25 New
    0
    THIS as THIS is this ??? ...
    with America at once interrupt trade relations ???
    or America will pay them- GOLD, EURO or RUBLES? belay
    1. Angry reader
      Angry reader 3 December 2013 15: 42 New
      0
      Rather, they want a percentage, turnover + offset technology .. + gold coin.
      1. Vadivak
        Vadivak 3 December 2013 16: 03 New
        +3
        Quote: ...
        It is likely that in the coming years, hard times await China.


        We are not waiting for prosperity either.

        The Ministry of Economic Development has officially raised its forecast for inflation in Russia for 2013 to 6,2% from the previously expected 6%, RIA Novosti reports with reference to the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukaev. In November, the minister already stated that inflation this year could reach 6,1–6,2%, although the agency still has not changed the official forecast of 5–6%.

        The forecast for GDP growth was also lowered to 1,4 from 1,8%. The decision to revise downward forecasts for 2014-2015 was unexpected. The assessment of economic growth for 2014 has worsened to 2,5 from 3%, for 2015 - to 2,8 from 3,1%. The forecast for 2016 is still maintained at 3,3%.
        1. silver_roman
          silver_roman 3 December 2013 18: 53 New
          0
          I don’t see any reason to look at 15 and 16 years old. because forecasts for the month are adjusted more often than many socks change their!
    2. Very old
      Very old 3 December 2013 15: 52 New
      +1
      Looks like: so this is so ... "Fantiki" will pour into Russia in an even wider stream
      There are few of our "zagashniki" in the States lying around
    3. APASUS
      APASUS 3 December 2013 21: 23 New
      0
      Quote: S-200
      with America at once interrupt trade relations ???

      It’s noteworthy that China rarely makes any statements and does not sharply change its policy. China began its economic war against the US currency and it’s not interesting for him to collapse. It will crowd out the dollar, calmly and persistently, and let it take 10-15 years there is a basic policy.
  2. Russ69
    Russ69 3 December 2013 15: 37 New
    0
    And what they wanted ... Governments are trying to move out of the dollar. Sharply impossible, but quiet glanders, just fine.
    1. Vadivak
      Vadivak 3 December 2013 16: 40 New
      +1
      Quote: Russ69
      Governments are trying to move out of the dollar


      Are these not so?
      The authorities of the US state of Virginia announced their intention to issue their own currency.
    2. The comment was deleted.
  3. Migari
    Migari 3 December 2013 15: 37 New
    +1
    Replacing the dollar. Is it possible or not?

    Everything is very simple. There are so many dollars on the planet that it is not so easy to just give them up. Moreover, the United States simply does not see a real alternative. The Euro is the second most used reserve currency in the world. For a short period of its existence, it has rather strongly entrenched itself in the international market. During the beginning of the "crisis" for the dollar, many experts predicted a successful future for the euro. Is it possible that the euro will replace the dollar as a reserve currency? Probably not. The European Monetary Union is now in danger of collapse.
  4. The comment was deleted.
  5. Stiletto
    Stiletto 3 December 2013 15: 38 New
    +2
    Quote: S-200
    or America will pay them- GOLD, EURO or RUBLES?


    Well yes. America has lived, lives and will live according to the principle "To whom I owe - I forgive everyone." But who will pay for such a policy of hers is a completely different question.
    1. brainkiller
      brainkiller 3 December 2013 15: 52 New
      -1
      Quote: Stiletto
      Well yes. America has lived, lives and will live according to the principle "To whom I owe - I forgive everyone." But who will pay for such a policy of hers is a completely different question.

      what does it mean? Payment takes place in real time by purchasing American securities at 2-3% per annum. Who the United States lends and pays. The Russian Federation lends very actively while to its citizen a loan at best at 13% per annum.
  6. Xroft
    Xroft 3 December 2013 15: 47 New
    +2
    If you look at the BRICS-Eurasian Union concept, it’s a completely justified step. Focus on the new currency that will be created on this site (actually accept the experience of the European Union, only without their mistakes) The question, as the Customs Union has already said, is the project of Russia (where Russia plays a key role) and The Eurasian Union is a Chinese project where it will dominate.
    Again, we look at the coverage of our media of two almost identical associations of the TS and Evrz. Putin invites everyone to the CU and tries to take all the former USSR countries there, which indicates the importance of this project (Putin will not deal with others). And complete silence about Evrz. although we are also there (they have been silent about BRICS for a long time).
    ps actually the Americans knew what such things would lead to On December 6, 2012, then US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton sharply criticized the creation of the Customs and Eurasian Union:
    "But of course it won't be called that way. It will be called the Customs Union, the Eurasian Union or something like that. We know what the goal is and we are trying to develop effective ways to slow it down or prevent it. . "(c)
    here are the first steps that China has taken (again, pioneers are becoming leaders), and Russia is still sitting on a dollar needle.
  7. brainkiller
    brainkiller 3 December 2013 16: 15 New
    0
    from the CU and FTZ to the economic union is very far. I am against such a development, because Union with the free movement of a single currency implies the free movement of all types of capital, including labor. It is easy to imagine what will happen to the Russian 120mln. by the population. The economies of China and the United States are currently inseparable, so no one will give up the dollar.
    As for the cessation of currency accumulations um ... The oil market can be tied up as much as you like simply by making it a little more expensive. And only China will suffer greatly from this.
  8. Peaceful military
    Peaceful military 3 December 2013 16: 15 New
    0
    A brilliant answer to screamers about the incredible growth of Chinese power.
  9. Christian
    Christian 3 December 2013 16: 18 New
    +5
    Unfortunately, the policy of the US vassal led Russia to the fact that we, like no one else in the world, need to be afraid of the collapse of the dollar - our economy will simply collapse along with the social sphere. So we are dependent on America, thanks to the "Kremlin patriots" ...
    1. alexng
      alexng 3 December 2013 16: 25 New
      +2
      And what is this dependence manifested in?
      1. Deniska
        Deniska 3 December 2013 17: 11 New
        -1
        According to published data from the Russian Ministry of Finance over the past year, the amount of funds spent on the purchase of US Treasury securities reached $ 116 billion, an amount comparable to half of budget revenues.
        1. avg
          avg 3 December 2013 19: 01 New
          +1
          the amount of funds spent on the purchase of US Treasury securities reached $ 116 billion, an amount comparable to half of budget revenues.

          Budget revenue 14,63 trillion rubles
          Treasury bonds 116 * 32 = 3,712 trillion rubles (this is not half). They were bought not at a time, but for several years. Interest is paid on these securities annually, and at any time they can be sold.
        2. alexng
          alexng 4 December 2013 00: 46 New
          0
          Quote: Deniska
          According to published data from the Russian Ministry of Finance over the past year, the amount of funds spent on the purchase of US Treasury securities reached 116 billion


          Well, this is a ridiculous amount, given that Russia has a trade and turnover external debt of approximately 56 billion wrappers, these 116 billion in treasury securities are just technical insurance in force majeure situations.
          So your "comment" says only one thing, you are probably a "double". Now Russia owes nothing to anyone in terms of balance. This infuriates the West that they have nothing to hook Russia with, since Russia itself is a donor to the IMF. For the West, there is only one amusement left - an INTENSE LIE towards Russia. If earlier they mixed a lie with real events, now they switched to a complete lie, and this is already agony.
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. core
      core 3 December 2013 17: 46 New
      0
      I don’t depend on American paper. and they’re afraid of collapse, I don’t see the point, even the moneybags are afraid, they will lose excess oil revenues, I did not touch these excess incomes with my hands, I did not keep in my pocket what was in excess of income, what was not, I was fine.
      1. saruman
        saruman 3 December 2013 18: 30 New
        +1
        Quote: core
        I don’t depend on American paper. and they’re afraid of collapse, I don’t see the point, even the moneybags are afraid, they will lose excess oil revenues, I did not touch these excess incomes with my hands, I did not keep in my pocket what was in excess of income, what was not, I was fine.


        Depend! The quantity and value of rubles in the economy of the Russian Federation depends on the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation! And this dependence is directly proportional. For example, the 1997 crisis was directly caused by a shortage of currency in Central Bank accounts. They tried to compensate for the lack of liquidity and money by issuing T-bills, then a well-known result. The crisis of 2008 was relatively easily overcome thanks to the huge gold and foreign exchange reserves accumulated due to high prices for raw materials.
        Of course, our financial system is not independent. This is the most important evil for our economy!
        1. core
          core 3 December 2013 18: 43 New
          -1
          paper, the more debt paper, can not be a reserve, the reserve is gold diamonds are rare earth metals. these things are liquid. more food both in warehouses and in the home field. Iran, Syria, Libya had nothing, and how did it somehow help them? THEY JUST ARRESTED.
          And FOR THE DEPENDENCE I have a garden, I do not buy branded things, Kyrgyz and Chinese goods are enough for me, there will be a crisis and Russian goods will wake up.
          the crisis is not so terrible, but even useful. an acquaintance in the summer of 2007 poured foundation, buying cement at 450 rubles per bag, and now it is no more than 250 rubles, the crisis is a useful thing. puts baryzhnikov in place.
          1. brainkiller
            brainkiller 3 December 2013 22: 59 New
            +1
            Quote: core
            paper, the more debt paper, can not be a reserve, the reserve is gold diamonds are rare earth metals. these things are liquid.
            according to the current laws of the economy, just the world currency has the highest degree of liquidity. If for you the economy is pseudoscience, do not bother yourself and do not use its concepts.
  10. No_more
    No_more 3 December 2013 16: 42 New
    +1
    China needs to invest in technology and infrastructure that reduces the cost of manufactured goods. Moreover, the technology should be local (to invest in benefits for those who use equipment made in China, technology, pays royalties on Chinese patents). And also invest in infrastructure in order to accelerate the delivery of goods to markets, and not feed intermediaries and speculators.

    This is true, by the way, for Russia.
  11. The comment was deleted.
  12. brainkiller
    brainkiller 3 December 2013 16: 46 New
    +1
    Quote: No_more
    China needs to invest in technology and infrastructure that reduces the cost of manufactured goods.
    what nonsense?
    Since when do Chinese products have cost problems? This is more likely among Europeans due to high wages, but not Chinese at all. =)
    1. asadov
      asadov 3 December 2013 17: 14 New
      +1
      Unfortunately No_more is right, we do not really feel it yet, but soon we will feel it clearly. Many manufactures are transferred from China to cheaper countries such as Vietnam, Burma, Bangladesh.
      1. brainkiller
        brainkiller 3 December 2013 17: 51 New
        +1
        Quote: asadov
        Unfortunately No_more is right, we do not really feel it yet, but soon we will feel it clearly. Many manufactures are transferred from China to cheaper countries such as Vietnam, Burma, Bangladesh.

        so and whose capital is transferred? Chinese? Or is it American investors who try not to put all their eggs in one basket? Give a normal source.
  13. mountain
    mountain 3 December 2013 16: 59 New
    +1
    Something I can’t believe is that China is so stupid and has not thought out its moves to the front, and more than one China today is withdrawing dollars. There is still the pound sterling, the euro, the Swiss currency is one of the reliable. There are many options. So, it’s not possible to forgive someone who will be hurt. One thing is clear about the dollar looming ax.
  14. The comment was deleted.
    1. brainkiller
      brainkiller 3 December 2013 17: 11 New
      +1
      I recommend that you, as a hopeless patriot, read this article http://pozitivnews.org/dollar-i-evro-znachitelno-oslabli-rossijskij-rubl-krepcha
      et.html
      she will perfectly consolidate your opinion =)
      One thing is clear about the dollar looming ax.
      Oh yeah! and when his America lowers everyone will be forced to forgive the unforgivable dollar external debt =)))
      1. mountain
        mountain 3 December 2013 18: 12 New
        0
        I honestly did not understand whose patriot I am, to the dollar, to China? And the pisyulyak on the cause of the dollar and its demise and consequences around the world ah, oh, what awaits. What is waiting, what are the bindings? Economics is pseudo science and it is twisted and twisted as they want. I don’t even want to discuss it, the creditors have nothing to take from America and, as soon as everyone understands this, she will be killed and taken away. Only they don’t kill a dairy cow, it gives milk, but what do the states give? Paper at a price ... what?
        And it’s not easy that they lose today on almost all world issues and only the jackal has not yet escaped and has not expressed their opinion.
        They should not even start a big mess, what will they pay?
        1. SV
          SV 3 December 2013 23: 03 New
          +1
          America's creditors understand everything, so they will support the dollar as long as possible in the hope of leveling losses. It’s like a boat with a leak in the middle of the ocean, the passengers of which scoop up the incoming water than anything, hoping to live another day. belay
  15. i.xxx-1971
    i.xxx-1971 3 December 2013 17: 15 New
    0
    How do we get off a dollar needle:
    1. It is necessary to sell oil, gas and weapons only for rubles;
    2. To revise the Federal Law on the State Bank of the Russian Federation: it should be nationalized and allowed to buy government bonds of the Russian Federation;
    3. Nationalize natural resources: the extracted natural resources should be owned and sold in the foreign market exclusively by the state, and the extractive companies should only make a profit for their extraction;
    4. Unconditional state monopoly on the production and sale of alcoholic beverages;
    5. The total wealth of the state consists of the availability of natural resources per capita and competitively produced material values ​​produced by this population. In the long run, subject to the full state sovereignty of the Russian Federation, it is possible to create its own emission center, the activity of which will be determined by the above factors. You should print as much money as the state really costs (and our state costs like the rest of the world combined) and how much is needed for its development, and then: further, more, as far as the eggs are allowed. The most important thing is to be afraid to touch us for this. Arm, arm and arm again.
    1. saruman
      saruman 3 December 2013 18: 42 New
      +2
      You reason at the kindergarten level. Do not tell me how to implement your proposals?
      For example, paragraph
      Quote: i.xxx-1971
      1. It is necessary to sell oil, gas and weapons only for rubles;

      Suppose you sold oil, gas, weapons for rubles ... and then what can we buy for these rubles in foreign markets? A specific example: the Russian Federation exchanged currencies (swaps), for example, with Syria, sold rubles to her for their dinars, then Syria bought weapons from us for rubles, and as a result we sit with Syrian dinars ... What will we buy from them? Clearly spelling out? etc.
  16. rolik
    rolik 3 December 2013 17: 16 New
    0
    Here you can recall the sad fate of Japan, which two dozen years ago seriously thought that the yen could be on a par with the US dollar or even replace it.
    Japan, even in its best times, did not consume as much oil as China now consumes. China has reached a first place in the world, ahead of the United States, in oil consumption. Therefore, it will not be so difficult to transform the petrodollar into nefteyuan, as mattress analysts write. And China will take in quantity, not price, this is for manufactured goods. So that the Celestial Empire took the step that had long been expected.
  17. ATATA
    ATATA 3 December 2013 17: 20 New
    0
    Well, for now, something like this:
    Euro yuan rendered its place in the list of most popular currencies
    http://lenta.ru/news/2013/12/03/yuanpasseseuro/
  18. FunkschNNX
    FunkschNNX 3 December 2013 17: 35 New
    0
    The world economies are too closely tied up, they probably will not be able to break, and there will be no winners.
  19. Keeper
    Keeper 3 December 2013 17: 39 New
    0
    It is necessary to strengthen the RUBLE, which can be quickly made a world currency - give it "security" !!!
    The dollar is not provided with anything, therefore - as soon as Russia and other countries cease to use it - the soap bubble will begin to appear with ink stains ...
  20. The comment was deleted.
  21. BBM
    BBM 3 December 2013 18: 19 New
    0
    The logic of the Chinese liberals is very simple: China does not need a stable and “cheap” yuan. It costs the country too much, because have to deal with the constant buying up of US currency and the accumulation of reserves. Absolutely "free" yuan does not require large reserves. Thus, the country's leadership will disappear headache, which tormented him for many years. And the liberals would like to put an end to this.

    the author is sick on the head is the logic of the Chinese Nationalists. and this is CORRECT logic. What is called began for health, finished for repose. But those horror stories that he describes in case of refusal of excessive reservation (that is, in fact from the buck) show that he is a lived liberal. Indeed, even according to liberal terms (in the classical, good sense of the word), reserves should cover the volume of imports in the extreme case of trade between countries. That is, no more than 600 billion Baku and in fact the figure is 6 times more. But all these funds could be additionally invested in the Chinese economy. And if you read comrade Khrushchev then it turns out that reserves are not needed at all and this is a tribute that American imperialism is forcibly collecting from all over the world.
  22. I think so
    I think so 3 December 2013 19: 45 New
    +2
    The article is not just amateurish, but there are even doubts about the sanity of the author ...
    What is the passage:
    "The collapse of America may happen, but for another reason - because the Federal Reserve will not be able to withstand the congestion caused by the need to buy gigantic amounts of US Treasury bonds."
    And what are these overloads? To hammer in the computer the next zeros in trillion accounts? I am amused so amused ...
    And so in the WHOLE article. Even reluctance to give a list of lapses. The article looks like an attempt to "intimidate" the Chinese with the consequences of their decisions. In the hope, and in some Chinese friend reads this material and suddenly will work. Even if the Chinese read this opus, they will immediately see the ridiculousness of this article. Apparently, they have adequate guys in the financial sector, otherwise their currency and their economy would not be so powerful.
  23. Director
    Director 4 December 2013 00: 40 New
    0
    China has repeatedly made such verbal interventions. This is neither the first nor the last. The absence of a reaction from the US financial authorities confirms this.
    When they plan such actions, they do not notify the whole world.
  24. Director
    Director 4 December 2013 00: 40 New
    0
    China has repeatedly made such verbal interventions. This is neither the first nor the last. The absence of a reaction from the US financial authorities confirms this.
    When they plan such actions, they do not notify the whole world.
  25. Known who
    Known who 4 December 2013 04: 41 New
    0
    China has a huge economy and China owns almost all of Africa, in terms of capital export rates, China ranks first in the world and wagging behind the most powerful economy in the world cannot but affect the exchange rates especially not secured by anything like a dollar. With one decision of the Plenum of the Central Committee of the CPC, China can destroy the entire economic model of the land, and not just finish the states. Therefore, it seems quite possible for me to gradually withdraw assets from the dollar and invest them in alternative currencies, especially since the case of Muammar Gaddafi did not die (abandoning the dollar and switching to settlements in gold denarius, which served as the real cause of the African spring and cost the life of the colonel).
    The transition to settlements in national currencies with the abandonment of pegging to the dollar is a gradual change in the world order, which in the end will ruin the second economy of the world — the US economy.
  26. kelevra
    kelevra 13 December 2013 14: 18 New
    0
    If China completely abandons the dollar, then the United States will be khan! And then along the chain, the United States will want to stay afloat and announce the return of the national currency to itself, but no country will have enough funds to abandon the dollar and switch to its currency and gold, here and the world crisis will strike ahead! And then, war, chaos and the end of everything. so China is unlikely to want to completely abandon the dollar, and the United States will for some time suffer mockery of its national paper and decide to return everything, war naturally! When after the Second World War, the Americans bought up and took gold from all countries insolently, we had to immediately think that, first of all, they would drive themselves into a dead end.