What will the revolution in Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia was no exception among the countries of the Arab world - and there is a serious possibility of revolution.Although Saudi Arabia is a very rich state, which has 24% proven oil reserves on the planet. Riyadh is the leader in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), through which it regulates world oil prices. In addition, the state has two of the largest religious centers of Muslims of the whole world - Mecca and Medina. They generate income from millions of pilgrims to holy places.
But this did not save Riyadh from the Arab Troubles. At the end of January, the first unrest began; on February 23, Saudi Arabian King Abdullah ibn Abdelaziz announced the sale of a package of financial benefits totaling more than 35 billion dollars. The main measures are: 15-percent increase in salaries of civil servants, support for young unemployed people and citizens of Saudi Arabia studying abroad, as well as helping families in finding affordable housing. These were economic concessions to society; there was no talk of political reforms, although the king gave pardon to several criminals accused of financial fraud. On March 10, a demonstration of Shiites (a religious minority) took place in the city of Qatif, and several people were injured when the police broke up.
Riyadh Problems
- Professional education is poorly developed; qualified specialists and labor force are preferred to be invited from other countries (Pakistan, India, Egypt, Bangladesh, the Philippines, etc.)
- Great dependence on the purchase of food.
- They import most industrial goods, automobiles, textiles, etc.
- High unemployment among the indigenous population, especially among young people.
- Rapid population growth, with a population of 28 million people (2009 data of the year), an annual increase of 1-1,5 million per year, the birth rate is 29,56 (per 1000 people).
- Low combat capability of Saudi armed forces with good technical equipment: Riyadh buys the best weapon in the countries of the West, especially in their “ally” of the USA, they spend huge sums on the purchase of arms. But a population corrupted by a good life, in the absence of an external threat — the defense of the United States — will not be able to withstand even the tribal units of Yemenis (they have already beat the Saudi army more than once), and especially the Iranian army.
- At the beginning of serious unrest in Saudi Arabia, the United States and the West as a whole are likely to support the "rebels", especially if Riyadh will firmly suppress speeches. Saudi Arabia on the bad score of Western human rights organizations - a kind of stronghold of "medieval obscurantism." Riyadh, even Shiite Muslims do not allow to build a mosque. And the United States "throw" their ally, they are not the first time, because interests are forever, not states. The United States favors the dismemberment of Saudi Arabia, already under Bush, scenarios of "restructuring" of the Arab world and Pakistan were announced, maps with new states were published.
- Religious discrimination of Shiites, they make up about 10% of the population and mostly live in the east of the country. All other religions, except official Salafism, are forbidden to worship. The country has a religious police (muttava). The soldiers of the Shariah Guard constantly patrol the streets and public institutions in order to prevent attempts to violate the canons of Islam. In the event of a violation, the guilty person will be punished accordingly (from the fine to the head).
- The problem of Yemen, the neighboring state - is simply, by European standards, hell on earth. Yemen is unhappy that Riyadh has appropriated groundwater reserves without their consent - the water problem in Yemen is so acute that a "war for water" can soon be expected. The Yemeni invasion of Saudi Arabia will be a disaster for the region.
- External enemy - Shiite Iran, which supports Shiites in Saudi Arabia and Yemen. And who would like to get part of the territory of Saudi Arabia during its collapse.
- The problem of hired workers - there is an entire army in Saudi Arabia - 5,5 million people. If unrest and chaos begins in the country, some of them will join the rioters. They hate well-fed and loafing Saudis. Together with Shiites and Yemenis, they can make up the shock squad of the Revolution.
In the fall of Saudi Arabia, the consequences will be very significant, the price of hydrocarbons will increase very much. The events will be implicated by the United States (in Saudi Arabia they have military bases), Iran, the European Union, the countries of the Arabian Peninsula.
Information