What will happen to Iraq?
In 2003, during the NATO intervention led by the United States, Iraq was occupied. At present, the US has withdrawn heavy weapons, but quite a large force has remained in Iraq, including mercenaries from private companies.Currently, Iraq is a very unstable territory, with a lot of problems.
- There is a guerrilla war against the Americans and pro-Western power, terrorist acts, shootings - this is already commonplace.
- The question of the final withdrawal of the American contingent, including military instructors of the new Iraqi army and mercenaries of private military companies.
“The Kurdish problem, the Kurds want to increase the autonomy of their region in the north of Iraq and include the oil-rich region of Kirkuk. Arabs and Turkomans claim the same region. And the Kurds are already demanding complete independence.
Reference: Turkmans (Turkmans) - a Turkic people living in northern Iraq. The third largest people in this country after the Arabs and Kurds. The exact number is unknown - from 300 thousand to 3 million people. The Turkmens are divided religiously: more than half of them are Shiites, the rest are Sunnis.
- The country is on the verge of collapse and civil war, only the presence of US troops restrains its beginning.
- External threat: Turkey constantly conducts military operations against its Kurds and strikes across Iraqi territory, motivating its actions by penetrating Kurdish partisans from Iraqi territory. In addition to Turkey, there is a threat to Iran, Tehran will not slow down to take advantage of the civil war in Iraq, which is already smoldering and after the Americans leave, it will flare up with a “bright flame”.
- The current Arab Turmoil has further “heated up” the situation; mass protests began in February; the country has a lot of unresolved social problems – unemployment, high levels of corruption, a very low standard of living (this is in the second country in the world in terms of oil reserves and the third in terms of hydrocarbon reserves).
Possible scenarios for developments in Iraq
- The departure of Americans will lead to civil war and the collapse of the country, an independent Kurdistan will be formed, a part of the territory occupied by neighbors - Iran, Turkey, Syria.
- The civil war, in the course of which a strong leader will advance, a leader who will restore the statehood of Iraq with blood and blood.
- The United States will leave its "limited" contingent indefinitely.
- A scenario is possible in which the government in Baghdad will be forced to agree to the division of the country and the creation of an independent Kurdistan while keeping the rest of the country under Baghdad's authority.
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