West vs. Libya: Is a Force Scenario Possible?

Western and significant parts of the world media, including the Russian ones, are waging an information war against Gaddafi. In its power, it can outrun an avalanche of lies about a “humanitarian catastrophe” in Kososo in 1999.

But will the information strikes be followed by a military operation by NATO or the US armed forces alone? The US has already pulled a fairly powerful naval squadron to Libya. There is already a US Navy detachment there, consisting of a universal landing ship, a landing-helicopter dock ship and a destroyer. A detachment of the 6th fleet led by the atomic aircraft carrier Enterprise.

In addition, there are ships of other states - Great Britain, Germany; France, Italy, and Canada also sent their ships to Libya. But France and Italy have already refused to talk about the military operation, the Security Council will not support such measures, since the Russian Federation and China will not give permission.

True, the US may not care about the opinion of part of the world community. The main problem is that the US has not yet completed the operation in Iraq and Afghanistan. They do not have enough forces to conduct a ground operation, even a partial operation - to suppress the Air Force and Defense Libya - forces are small. The Enterprise has about 70 aircraft, including 48 Super Hornet fighters, this is clearly not enough to destroy the air defense and the Libyan Air Force.

To carry out an operation to create a “no-fly zone”, it is necessary to tighten also the 3-4 aircraft carrier strike groups. That is, Gaddafi still has time.

Home weapon in this "performance" is information. Will Gaddafi breakso that he leaves on his own, then there will be no need for any missiles, no planes, no fuel to waste, total savings.

What is Gaddafi

The armed forces number approximately 80 thousand people, but some of the personnel joined the rebels, while others fled to their homes and are waiting for the end of the play. The most combat-ready units and those loyal to Gaddafi are the 5 "Jamahiriya Guard Brigades", the "Revolutionary Guard" Brigade, the special 32nd Security Brigade, and 6 "commando" battalions. These units are recruited from the countrymen and tribesmen of the Libyan leader. There is also the so-called Pan-African Islamic Legion, numbering from 7 to 15 thousand. These are mercenaries recruited in Chad, Nigeria, Mali, Sudan, and there are also Arabs from Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, and even people from Pakistan. All these units are trained by foreign military specialists, including those from Eastern Europe.

Armament: about 1000 tanks, the most modern ones are T-90 and T-72, the rest are T-62, T-55 (there are about 1000 more units in storage); about 2000 units of armored vehicles, more than 1500 artillery systems and mortars, more than 800 MLRS, about 6000 ATGMs, there are tactical ballistic missile systems of the Scud and Luna type - from 50 to 120 systems. More than 800 SAM and anti-aircraft missile systems - Strela, French Crotale, Shilka, ZPU-2, S-60.

The problem is that a significant part of the conservation, and most likely can not be restored (due to violations of the rules of storage). But even the rest will make the United States think hard.

Air Force and Air Defense

Although the Libyan Air Force counts up to 400 aircraft units, almost the entire fleet is old models, much of it is intact, and this is aggravated by poor training of personnel.

The air defense is quite powerful, although the armament is old, still Soviet - S-75, S-125, 2K12 “Kub”, S-200 (8 divisions). They can cause serious trouble. aviation NATO.

Gaddafi was a bit unlucky, he signed a number of military contracts with Russia - he ordered three Project 3 Molniya boats with Uran-E missiles, and was going to buy two non-nuclear submarines. For the ground forces, he was going to buy a batch of T-12418SA and modernize the T-90. For the Air Force, they wanted to buy Yak-72 trainers and were thinking about buying a batch of Su-130 fighters, and it was possible to buy a batch of helicopters, transport and attack. Gaddafi wanted to buy Buk-M35-1E, Tor-M2E and even S-2PMU-300 air defense systems from Russia. These purchases would have seriously strengthened the Libyan armed forces, given the huge stock of old weapons. Russia lost a lot of money and the arms market.

To sum up - At present, the United States cannot even conduct an operation to eliminate Libya’s air force and air defense, they need to transfer quite significant forces for such an operation. The United States and its allies can now assist the “rebels” with weapons, communication systems, and carry out sabotage with their help.

The US squadron in Libya is still a means of psychological pressure for Gaddafi to surrender, to cede power.

If the US goes to the end and concentrates enough forces for a successful invasion, then According to the Vice-President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems K. Sivkov, “... Gaddafi is best to leave Tripoli and leave with his fighters somewhere in the desert, regroup and wait for the moment when the people begin to oppose the American occupation. This will happen quite quickly - in a few months. Then Gaddafi can join them and again head Libya. "

That is, Gaddafi has chances, if he withstands psychological pressure.