Persian Gambit

As a result of Iran’s recent midnight talks with representatives of the Six (USA, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany), we got a situation in which, if Iran’s refusal to develop nuclear weapons, the West weakens the sanctions mechanism, defrosts its assets and promises the opportunity to join other the benefits of "civilization." The general euphoria in the world that prevails around this event, against the background of the apparent wrath of Israel and Saudi Arabia, seems to give reason to rejoice in the reduction of tension in the Middle East. Everything seems to be so. BUT…

Congenital distrust of Uncle Sam’s disinterested pacifism makes me ask and try to answer three simple questions:

1. Who benefits?

2. Who is not profitable?

3. How will the further development of the situation occur?

I will try to offer my answers.

1. Definitely from this proposal benefit the United States and NATO. Let me explain how: easing sanctions will lead to a decrease in oil prices, and support for Shiite Iran as opposed to the Sunnis, who have become stronger recently (the victory of one of the branches of Islam cannot be allowed: better, a delicate balance followed by periodic slaughter between them) will help maintain the status quo in the region.

2. If you do not abandon the idea that the struggle in the region is not only between Sunnis and Shiites, Muslims and Israelis, but also between the United States and Russia, then Iran’s return to the world oil market could lead to a collapse in oil prices with a subsequent collapse of the Russian economy (I think the operation of the Reagan administration is known to Obama). And this should be taken into account when forming our budget. I do not think that Russia will benefit from this.

3. I suppose that the States will try to maintain the uncertainty of the situation as long as possible, giving hope for support both to Iran and the Saudis, and not forgetting about Israel. At the same time, they will have the opportunity, if necessary, to support one of the competitors, depending on the situation, but not giving the opportunity to strengthen to either side of the regional leadership.

So this situation is ambiguous. It makes you think rather than rejoice. I would like to wish S. Lavrov success in a difficult diplomatic game.

Comments

[bomg.77]

. If we do not abandon the idea that the struggle in the region is not only between Sunnis and Shiites, Muslims and Israelis, but also between the USA and Russia, then Iran’s return to the world oil market could lead to a collapse in oil prices with the subsequent collapse of the Russian economy (I think the Reagan administration’s operation is known to Obama). And this should be taken into account when forming our budget. I do not think that Russia will benefit from this.

I agree with this that the price will fall, but you can partially compensate for the shortfall in profit from oil by supplying arms and goods to Iran, no matter how, 70mln of potential buyers

[AVV]

Yesterday there were 80 million buyers, it’s probably with guest workers in Iran !!! But the states just don’t do anything, they will promote their goods to Iran, they will force Iran to trade for dollars, which Iran has refused, to offer its military equipment, products, and much more. And they will set various conditions for a long time to lift the sanctions, but they won’t be in a hurry to cancel !!! And most importantly, weaken the influence of Russia in this region and China !!!

[bomg.77]

Quote: AVV

Yesterday there were 80 million customers, this is probably with guest workers in Iran!

10 million missed

Quote: AVV

!!! And most importantly, weaken the influence of Russia in this region and China !!!

And what will Russia sleep with China at this time? The same will offer and implement their ideas and plans. We have a normal president and have repeatedly proved that there is still gunpowder in the powder flasks. We’ll see.!

[vahatak]

Quote: bomg.77

but it is possible to partially compensate for the shortfall in profit from oil by delivering weapons and goods to Iran, no matter how, 70 million potential buyers

Can Russia export anything other than weapons and hydrocarbons? If sanctions are lifted from Iran, Russia’s economic losses cannot be compensated in any way. That is why Russia has so far been verbally opposing the United States on the Iranian issue, but in fact has always joined the sanctions.

[Alexander Romanov]

Quote: vahatak

Can Russia export anything other than weapons and hydrocarbons?

Maybe, unlike Armenia, they are living at the expense of Russia. Who can’t protect the borders of Armenia *?

Quote: vahatak

but in fact, always joined the sanctions.

Well, and what sanctions did Russia join?

[vahatak]

And of course, we are not accustomed to wiggling our brains before poking fingers into the keyboard with the keyboard.

[Alexander Romanov]

Quote: vahatak

And of course, we are not accustomed to wiggling our brains before poking fingers into the keyboard with the keyboard.

But where are we to you, only I look to say something and nothing? And why am I not surprised.

[bomg.77]

Quote: vahatak

Can Russia export anything other than weapons and hydrocarbons?

There are a lot of things besides weapons and minerals, which is also not a little, the same Bushehr,

Quote: vahatak

Russia will not be able to compensate in any way.

I wrote that partially compensates.

Quote: vahatak

. That is why Russia has so far been verbally opposing the United States on the Iranian issue, but in fact has always joined the sanctions.

Russia did everything right, and first of all for itself and to a no lesser extent for Armenia! There is no conflict. Armenia defended in Syria. America defended America in its de11 thanks to Snowden, Putin and Lavrov. The oil price is at an acceptable level. What else need to?

[optimist]

I also agree with the author. All this hype with Russia's foreign policy "victories" reminded me of a vulgar ditty: "I waited and believed, I thought about my face! And I went and checked it, I walk with gonorrhea ..." So it's too early to rejoice. The Americans always preferred to carry chestnuts out of the fire with the wrong hands ...

[alone]

Undoubtedly, the USA and NATO benefited from this. By the way, Saudi Arabia stated that it was satisfied with the agreements. But what Russia wins in this regard remains a mystery.

Not everything glitters in the world is called gold. As if two cunning schools of diplomacy - English and Persian would not outwit Russian diplomacy.