The next six months, the “six” and Iran are going to devote to the continuation of the negotiations. Probably, the mediating countries will wish to make sure that the Islamic Republic of Iran keeps its word. Tehran, in turn, wants to fully defend the right to implement a peaceful nuclear program: Iran needs to produce fuel for nuclear power plants.
However, not all so simple. This production itself is already causing a lot of doubts and complaints from the West.
After talks in Geneva, John Kerry told Fox News that the agreement does not contain a provision recognizing the right of Iran to enrich uranium. The US Secretary of State clarified that an agreement was reached on Iran’s refusal from the kilograms enriched to 200% of uranium in 20. Six months later, from these kilograms there should be nothing left. Apparently, this will be the test of Iran for "lice".
And Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said something else. According to him, Iran’s “sacred right” to a peaceful atom will enter into a future agreement with a “six”.
Russian Foreign Minister comrade Lavrov noted that the Geneva agreement implies "the strictest control of the IAEA" over the Iranian nuclear program and that this goal of the negotiations is "fixed" in the agreement.
Interfax also cites the Israeli assessment of the agreement signed by the parties in Geneva.
The Israeli Cabinet has negatively evaluated the agreement reached. Speaking on Israel’s army radio, Economy Minister Naftali Bennett said: “Israel does not see for itself the limitations associated with a signed bad, very bad agreement.”
Here Tel Aviv ran into Washington. According to an anonymous representative of the American administration, who spoke with reporters, Barack Obama, after the talks, expressed a desire to talk with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and explain the essence of the agreement.
The latter, although it looks a bit comical, is due to the fact that the negotiations in Geneva were held behind closed doors, and the information about them in the media is very poorly represented to this day. Analysts and experts operate more with guesses and forecasts than facts.
Natalia Kovalenko ("Voice of Russia") kindly quoted experts on the nuclear “deal”. It is interesting to see the opinion of a specialist in the problems of Central Asia and the Middle East, Semen Bagdasarov:
“It’s not for nothing that the term 6 has been defined for months, during which the world community and, first of all, the states of the“ six ”must make sure that Iran is really ready to fulfill the obligations that it has assumed. The fact is that within Iran there is a strong opposition to any such negotiated solutions. This is the leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the security forces as a whole. This is the first. Secondly, we must admit directly that during these 6 months Israel and Saudi Arabia will do everything possible to cast doubt on Iran’s sincerity in fulfilling its obligations. Because these states are not interested in bringing the West closer to Iran. ”
As for Israel, he is dissatisfied not only with what the West is pleased with, but also with the fact that secret talks with American representatives of Iran have preceded the Geneva talks. What happens? While Mr. Netanyahu was drawing the “red lines”, the Americans were looking for a reason to become friends with Iran. America in general seems to have slowed down and is backing off: this is evident both in the situation with Syria and in the situation with Iran. What kind of anti-bunker bombs! .. Now it turns out that Obama did not receive the Nobel Peace Prize for nothing. Miracles, and only.
As noted by MIGnews.comA public rapprochement between Iran and the United States was preceded by a series of private bilateral meetings between US and Iranian officials. This was recognized by an unnamed representative of the Obama administration.
A senior US official said that four US-Iranian secret meetings had been held since Rouhani’s inauguration in August. By the way, American officials informed Israeli colleagues about the main content of the conversations. The main negotiators on the part of the Americans were William Burns, US Undersecretary of State, and Jake Sullivan, National Security Advisor to the US Vice President.
A former Iranian official confirmed the fact of secret negotiations and said that they were conducted with the sanction of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “All meetings with the Americans were held with the blessing of the leader. The first one was the most difficult, especially when we had to convince our main authority about the positive results of such meetings, ”said a former high-ranking Iranian official. “The leader gave a green light, but viewed their result without optimism,” he said. “We took the risk, but we won.”
Communication channel through Oman proposed US Secretary of State John Kerry.
Answering the question whether secret meetings played an important role in achieving a nuclear agreement, a high-ranking US official answered: “Yes.”
Against the background of the fact that the Iranian issue was removed from the geopolitical agenda (at least for half a year), some people in the Middle East gritted their teeth.
While many representatives of the world community recognized the agreement of the IRI and the "six" as an important step, the majority of Arab states, especially the countries participating in the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Persian Gulf, remain silent, reports correspondent ITAR-TASS Vasily Vavilin.
"Residents of the entire Middle East will not be able to sleep peacefully after reaching an agreement between Iran and the major powers," said Abdullah al-Askar, head of the international affairs committee of the Saudi Arabian Consultative Council.
Despite such a sharp reaction, the Kingdom’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not officially indicate its position. Among the GCC countries only the UAE and Bahrain made statements.
A statement from the UAE government states: “The government hopes that this event will be a step towards achieving a permanent agreement that will ensure stability throughout the region and save it from the danger of the proliferation of nuclear weapons.”
Bahrain’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sheikh Khaled bin Ahmed bin Mohammed Al Khalifa, said: “With this agreement, we, Iran and other countries have got rid of the feeling of fear.”
Thus, those who spoke out, “got rid of the feeling of fear,” and those who chose to keep silence, “cannot sleep well”.
And what deprived the latter of sleep?
The site of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia appeared unofficial translation “Joint Action Plan” (Joint Plan of Action), developed after the negotiations in Geneva.
From the very first lines of the document, it follows that the goal of the G6 negotiations with Tehran is to achieve a mutually agreed long-term solution ensuring the exclusively peaceful nature of the Iranian nuclear program. It seems to be okay; You can do without valerian. But further: “This comprehensive solution will allow Iran to fully exercise its right to nuclear energy for peaceful purposes in accordance with the relevant articles of the NPT, with strict compliance with its obligations under this Treaty. This comprehensive solution will include a mutually agreed enrichment program with practical limitations and transparency measures in order to ensure the program’s peaceful nature. ”
This is exactly what Tel Aviv, with some ingenuity, can declare the Iranian military nuclear program.
However, we read further: “This comprehensive solution will be a whole, where nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.”
Masterly wording! It is simply impossible to interpret it in two ways - even with Jewish ingenuity and American double standards. Valerian really is not required.
According to the document, the control of the implementation of short-term measures will be carried out by the Joint Commission of the Six and Iran, and the verification of measures related to the nuclear field will be the responsibility of the IAEA. The joint commission should cooperate with the IAEA - so that all concerns remain in the past. This is exactly what Comrade Lavrov explained, saying that the Iranian nuclear program will now fall under the "strictest control of the IAEA."
Israel could be frightened by the fact that Iran’s “voluntary measures” are nothing more than a clear compromise of the “six” with Iran, and not concessions to the “six” by Iran.
Of the existing uranium enriched to 20%, Tehran will retain half in oxide form with an enrichment level of up to 20% in order to produce fuel for the Tehran research reactor, the document says. The remaining part with the enrichment level up to 20% will be depleted to the level of no more than 5%.
As for the six months declared by the parties, during this period Iran will not enrich uranium over 5%.
Iran will not advance in the enrichment facility at Natanz, at the Fordo facility, at the reactor in Arak and will not create new enrichment sites. At the same time, Iran will continue its R & D under the safeguards of the IAEA, including the current enrichment R & D that is not designed to increase the reserves of enriched uranium.
To monitor the IAEA, Iran is committed to providing this organization with complete information regarding nuclear facilities, including even data on plans. Tehran will have to provide all this information, including on nuclear reactors at the above-mentioned facilities, in the next three months. The IAEA inspectors should also gain access to facilities where centrifuges are assembled, facilities for the production of centrifuge components and their storage sites, and finally, to uranium mines and plants for processing uranium ores. All this is written in the document.
All this should not disturb Israel or the Saudis. The latter, of course, are greatly upset because Iran is their raw material rival, and Wahhabis do not like Shiites. But the time of aggression seems to have ended with the bombing of Libya, and besides, the United States now has a new geopolitical rival and even in some sense its adversary, China, and America simply does not have to go to the Middle East. Beijing won the other day decided to expand the air defense zone in the water area, whose property is defended by its neighbors (Tokyo and Seoul), and in the White House grabbed their heads. This is the Air Defense Identification Zone in the East China Sea, which includes the space above the Senkaku Islands and the Iodo underwater rock in the area of Jeju Island. The National Security Council under the President of the United States has already made clear to Beijing that Washington is deeply concerned.
Let us return to the talks between Iran and the "six". According to the document on the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, the countries of the "six" in response to the exemplary behavior of the IRI will take the following measures (also voluntary).
Efforts to reduce sales of Iranian crude will be halted. Repatriation of the agreed amount of funds held from the sale of oil held abroad is also permitted. Suspends the effect of EU and US sanctions on related insurance and transportation services.
Iran will be allowed to export petroleum products. Sanctions on gold, precious metals, Iranian auto industry, etc. will also be suspended.
Moreover, the US administration will create a financial channel to facilitate trade in the humanitarian sphere for Iranian domestic needs (food, agricultural products, medical field), using funds received from the sale of Iranian oil and held abroad.
The final step of a comprehensive decision starts no later than one year after the adoption of the document. Here we are talking about a mutually agreed upon enrichment program with jointly determined parameters, with restrictions on the scale and level of enrichment activities and enrichment capacities, as well as in places where enrichment is carried out, as well as reserves of enriched uranium. After successfully completing the final step, throughout its life, the Iranian nuclear program will be treated the same as the program of any other NPT non-nuclear weapon state party. weaponsindicated in the document.
That, in fact, is all that is known about the negotiations and their results. There is nothing “bad” for Israel and Saudi Arabia. It may seem that those who speak of a “bad” agreement would consider the decision about the bombing of Iran to be a “good” outcome of the negotiations. Apparently, the Saudis need the same thing: they would even return to the UN Security Council and re-make friends with Washington. Especially if Washington incidentally would have tossed "Tomahawks" Syria, where too many Shiites bred.
But the United States went the other way. Moreover, the White House has distinguished itself not only in theory, but also in practice. The US has already unfrozen eight billion dollars of Iranian assets.
Igor Dunaevsky ("Russian newspaper") spoke about the dialogue between the US President and the Israeli Prime Minister. A telephone conversation between Obama and Netanyahu took place on Sunday.
Israeli Prime Minister criticized the Geneva accords, calling them “historical a mistake. " In response, the owner of the White House tried to reassure Netanyahu, assuring that "the US continues to intend to prevent Iran from creating nuclear weapons."
The press service of the presidential administration conveyed: “Obama suggested Netanyahu immediately begin consultations on the Iranian problem in order to find the most suitable solution, and also confirmed that the Israelis have good reason not to trust Tehran.”
This distrust is also felt in the powerful Israeli lobby in Washington. The correspondent points out that Democratic Senator from New York State Chuck Schumer said: "Iran will benefit from the Geneva accords much more than the international community, and therefore both Democrats and Republicans will discuss new sanctions against Tehran in the coming month."
It is curious: who exactly is meant by “the international community”? ..
With regard to the discussion in Congress and the influence of the powerful Jewish lobby on the Congress, the Obama administration made it clear to the lobbyists in late October that their pressure should be stopped.
As reported "Lenta.ru" With reference to The Jerusalem Post, Obama’s national security adviser Susan Rice, her deputies Ben Rhodes and Tony Blinken, and US Under-Secretary of State Wendy Sherman met with Jewish lobbyists in Washington.
All of them demanded that lobbyists stop trying to push new sanctions through the Senate at a time when relations between the United States and Iran began to improve after three decades of discord. As the newspaper notes, the conversation of diplomats and lobbyists was going on "in raised voices."
It seems that Netanyahu and Obama have finally disagreed on geopolitical views. And for good reason, Obama serves in the ministers of defense Chuck Hagel. When the Vietnamese veteran, the candidate for ministers, last winter, the senators were subjected to biased interrogation, he was reminded of his “anti-Semitic” past. The fact is that, while working in the Senate in 1997-2009, Chuck often performed criticized Israel’s policies and refused to support the initiatives of pro-Israel American public organizations. Once he even disapprovingly spoke of the powerful “Jewish lobby” in the United States, saying that he himself was “not an Israeli senator, but an American senator.” It was then that he was labeled an anti-Semite.
As senator, Charles Hagel condemned attempts to push the United States and Israel into war with Iran. In his bold judgments, he went so far as to allow the possibility of negotiations with Hezbollah. All of this logically fit into the mainstream of solving the Iranian nuclear issue through diplomacy.
At the winter “interrogation” in the Senate, Hagel also stated that the Iranian nuclear issue should be resolved with the help of international sanctions, which need to be coordinated with Russia and the UN Security Council.
As we see, over the past few months everything turned out exactly according to Hagel's old plan.
By the way, after the signing of the agreement in Geneva, the American president warned that if Iran does not fulfill its promises, the sanctions will be resumed in full. The six months referred to in the agreement are set aside for Iran’s verification.
Israel and Saudi Arabia are frantic, thus, also because their hands are now tied. Connected thereby by the international community, which advanced the solution of the “nuclear problem” along the diplomatic path. News the success of the agreement was among the first to be publicly confirmed, by the way, by French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius - and after all, Paris opposed the Iranian nuclear program to the last. British Foreign Secretary William Hague said with pathos: "Good news for the whole world."
Good That is not bad. And only Israel thinks otherwise. And so do some "residents of the entire Middle East," who now "will not be able to sleep." Tel Aviv and Riyadh’s unanimous reaction to the results of the Geneva talks only strengthens analysts in the thought that the current union of Israel and Saudi Arabia is not an informational stuffing at all. Of course, Mr. Netanyahu should expect new “red lines”: it is difficult to think of something else. However, it is unlikely that these lines will work on Obama: the American president himself was not so long ago mired with the Syrian “lines”, and his rating took on the form of a curve that was despondently creeping down. The successes of international diplomacy, in which Barack Hussein is now trying to imitate Comrade Putin, can slightly raise the graphic curve ...
Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru