Military Review

In the framework of the model that our macroeconomic bloc implements, we must forget about Russia!

72
The media transmitted a statement from the Chairman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina about a slowdown in economic growth. According to her, the old model of development has exhausted itself and the growth rate at the level of 1,5-2% is becoming the norm. Commentary by Mikhail Leontiev.


“What are the 2% growth with the current economic model ?! We must not forget about 2% and not about 5%, but about Russia! In the framework of the model that our macroeconomic block is implementing, we must forget about Russia. Well, it does not work for you in Russia!

Nabiullina hints at “Kudrinism,” that is, at liberalizing relations with business, at the investment climate, and the like. All this, perhaps, would give rise to investment in a situation of good external conditions. But the current problems that have arisen within the framework of the old model are connected with macroeconomic policies, and I am ashamed of Nabiullina, who understands this, but due to changes in her official status, she has to voice completely different things. The problem of a sharp slowdown of the Russian economy in a very harmonious (in its degeneratism) macroeconomic policy. It is built on the appreciation of money, on the pseudo-fight against inflation and on an absolutely absurd exchange rate policy.

I’m not saying that our financial structures are deliberately annoying the ruble, although there are such suspicions, because it is beneficial in this model. It is beneficial because the conversion of ruble earnings inside the country into foreign currency assets takes place. The better the ruble exchange rate, the better the conversion rate. If you spend an effective devaluation on 50%, you will receive half as much money. Why do you need efficiency when you have to pay for it with your own money? These factors bury the economy, and there are no other factors.

Yes, we have many problems in the economy and we can talk a lot about labor productivity, but the external situation is favorable for us, and the economy is buried in the ground due to macroeconomic policies that make any activity that imports compete with uncompetitive. In Russia, only that activity that is protected from import is possible. This is a defense order, some types of services that are difficult to import by technological parameters, perishable products and the like. Everything else is impossible to do. It is economically absurd to localize automotive assembly production in Russia, even if investors have a keen desire for it. In the framework of macroeconomic policy it is impossible

So all this talk about 2% and so on is just a sermon in an insane asylum. Moreover, within the framework of the model, you drive power to a dead end, since any necessary devaluation brings down consumer ambitions of the population. At the same time, you are killing national competitive production, and the state is doing an accomplice to this social policy. By the way, we also have a banking system that borrows money abroad, then spreads the money here, and then converts it again. This system of the day does not exist with a serious devaluation: after all, the obligations are in currency, and the system goes into bankruptcy. The ruble is an intermediate link that allows you to earn income. We find ourselves in a situation worse than Greece, which needs to be devalued, but cannot devaluate the euro, and we find ourselves captive to the model, although it has its own currency and its sovereignty. ”
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  1. experienced
    experienced 25 November 2013 10: 31
    41
    Damn, statistics from the evil one, and all inflation can be seen at the prices in the boutiques .... Economic growth is a utopia when the whole country does not produce but is economical and lawyer ....
    1. APES
      APES 25 November 2013 11: 10
      12
      Quote: seasoned
      Economic growth is utopia

      This has been clear since the 90 of the last century.

      if such things began to be said by the "mouthpieces" of the current government - this is good - it is worth waiting for changes.

      Namely - a shift of the economic model - protection of the domestic producer - the creation of conditions under which production will become more profitable than import.

      Russia has huge potential for economic growth - import substitution - by the way, when (if) it really begins to happen, then investments in the real sector of the economy will go.

      and so in the concept of "our-theirs" economists - investments are a project designed for instant profit - borrow money - immediately lend them back - borrow again - convert the difference - money makes money (profitability is the same as for Gazprom)
      1. mirag2
        mirag2 25 November 2013 15: 23
        +4
        Well, the economy can not grow without the utmost, it is a fiction.
        Each country reaches a certain limit - further growth is 0.0001%.
        This happened approximately in developed countries, then they begin to invest surplus finances in other countries in order to receive new income.
        After all, in fact, everything is elementary, and you do not need to be seven spans in the forehead to understand this.
        There used to be such a subject "political economy (ka)" - everything is explained very simply.
        1. Mikhail3
          Mikhail3 25 November 2013 16: 09
          12
          But who said that our economy was growing ?! We have a growing resource rent! Manufacturing industries have grown a little ... but very little, because rent is taken out as if nuclear waste! They are afraid to see that money will pollute everything here. It is impossible to get money for the production of something, the percentage does not allow. You have to make a fool of it, then there will be enough profitability, and even then there’s no way.
          And if by some miracle he dodged, made money to start production, you won’t expand if you were anyone. There we have security equipment produced NPF Bolid. Excellent equipment, which outweighed the bourgeois due to price and quality, almost occupies 70% of the Russian market. And you know what? Every fall - an ambush! For months we have to wait for a large batch, the guys can’t cope. Successful manufacturer! Choking in the loop of poverty, no money for expansion and modernization! Though you’ll be completely clean! What is the growth of the economy, it is unclear how we are even producing something ...
          1. Motors1991
            Motors1991 25 November 2013 20: 08
            +1
            Both in Ukraine and in Russia there is such a value-added tax, so if you ask any economist to clearly explain the essence of this tax, he will not do it, because in this case it must be recognized: VAT is a tax on taxes and its main task is to transfer money from industry to trade. Because there’s a supermarket at a supermarket, and look for production. By the way, this applies to Europe too, production there doesn’t grow and 1-2% growth is considered an achievement. It’s clear that there are still a lot of negative nuances, but VAT is a coffin for industry. Why doesn’t anyone pay attention to this? Already a lot of dough settles in the pockets of specific individuals both from cashing in and from reimbursement.
        2. Walker1975
          Walker1975 25 November 2013 16: 58
          +2
          Quote: mirag2
          Well, the economy can not grow without the utmost, it is a fiction.
          Each country reaches a certain limit - further growth is 0.0001%.


          Do you think that the Russian economy has already reached its ceiling?
        3. luka095
          luka095 25 November 2013 21: 41
          0
          Unclear. If there is a limit, where does the growth of 0.0001% come from, and why such a percentage? Where did you get this? It invests mainly in private capital - it is pursuing profit, not economic growth. The state invests abroad, for the most part, to support domestic exporters as well as for political reasons.
      2. zub46
        zub46 25 November 2013 17: 43
        +7
        To borrow money on an interbank loan - to lend it to another bank or citizen - to borrow again ... This is a super-visual diagram of the activities of all Russian banks without exception. The main reason for their existence. And we: "Investments, investments ...". Short loans are the main source of income.
      3. APASUS
        APASUS 25 November 2013 22: 01
        0
        Quote: APES
        if such things began to be said by the "mouthpieces" of the current government, this is good - it is worth waiting for changes. Namely, a change in the economic model - protection of the domestic producer - creating conditions under which production will become more profitable than import.

        You read too much press!
        In order for the economic model to change, we still need to put this on our side! And then the government does not see the deficiency of decisions.
        In order to become profitable it is necessary to completely change the Tax Code. Changing the financial policy, urging us to invest Western capital in the manufacturing part of the economy, we will withdraw it to our accounts in the USA. If the country itself does not invest in its infrastructure, why will investors do it? We we drive our own money to the west and take loans there - it turns out an oxymoron!
        1. APES
          APES 25 November 2013 22: 56
          +1
          Quote: APASUS
          You read too much

          thank you hi nowadays it sounds like a compliment (I'm not talking about the press)
          Quote: APASUS
          we still have to put this on our side!

          she will lie down - by virtue of her nature
          Quote: APASUS
          the government does not see the flaw in decisions

          sees - they are really scared
          Quote: APASUS
          completely change the Tax Code

          first of all - customs
          Quote: APASUS
          makes an investment

          investments - are different - we need long-term - in fixed assets ---- the main problem - these are long-term liabilities do not correspond to short-term assets - this is the root
          Quote: APASUS
          we drive our own money to the west and take loans there

          I talked about this
          thank you for the comment hi
    2. from punk
      from punk 25 November 2013 11: 39
      0
      this is not inflation. and FAS connivance and a valuable conspiracy. one healthy-minded farmer will not take a loan to raise the price of products later. goods. and here is the lobbying and resellers who will buy for cheap and hold and it doesn’t matter how much and for what money to keep here and the round of prices here and the semblance of inflation and again empty subsidies and loss of money. and about the fact that the country does not produce is rubbish and listening is stupid.
      1. Ingvar 72
        Ingvar 72 25 November 2013 13: 55
        +9
        Quote: punk
        and connivance FAS

        FAS without a team will not touch anyone. This is not connivance, this is obedience. When gas prices rise throughout the country without pegging oil prices, the FAS is silent for some reason. And on a sudden rise in price of eggs, checks ran. It is clear that the poultry farms agreed, but there is a reason, feed almost doubled in price. And what is becoming more expensive for the oil industry, well, apart from the appetite of course?
        1. AVV
          AVV 25 November 2013 15: 35
          +6
          By the New Year, hens began to carry Golden chicken eggs, cows and golden milk for the producer, and the producer felt that production from Lithuania was limited, barriers had grown with Ukraine, and oil industry workers wanted to eat black caviar by the New Year, which also went up quite sharply !! ! One hope for the Old Man, but he will send everything at normal prices, but the networks will raise the price anyway! Here it is and the economy !!! It’s just that the FAS does not want to work !!!
    3. Far East
      Far East 25 November 2013 12: 45
      11
      Quote: seasoned
      Damn, statistics from the evil one, and all inflation is visible at prices in the boutiques ...

      in add, today went to a gas station salar costs 37.32. rub. stunned. hi
      1. Papakiko
        Papakiko 25 November 2013 14: 01
        +6
        Quote: Far East
        in add, today went to a gas station salar costs 37.32. rub. stunned.

        In terms of ruble \ km. comes out cheaper by half than 95 or 98 ride. good
        The main thing in May-April, the price of d \ s will not drop. wink
        Moreover, within the framework of the model, you are driving power into a dead end, since any necessary devaluation brings down the consumer ambitions of the population. At the same time, you kill national competitive production, and you make the state an accomplice of this social policy.
        In August 1998, there was a "titanic" rescue of a domestic manufacturer. Nowadays, technological lines with technologies are being imported, and not individual machines. And talking and writing about the myth of economic growth and inflation is a populim or a rotten bazaar of justification of certain "gestures" of those in power.
        In Russia, only activities that are protected from imports are possible. it defense order, some types of services that are difficult to import by technological parameters, perishable foods etc.
        Most of the production lines and the machine tool are delivered under the State Defense Order, purchased from over the hillock and, moreover, !!!!! at what prices. Imported fruits and vegetables, milk from the Baltic states is probably not a perish lol belay .
        An incomprehensible vomit Michael bungled.
        Whose order is the "mouthpiece of patriotism" fulfilling?

        those who hold power from the largest bell tower spit on the people.
        Watch and chat about the new pension reform.
        Attached video from 37 minutes. [Media = http: //cs7010.vk.me/c540105/v540105726/611b/zfvT7lZLRrc.jpg]


        Several creations of Vasya Oblomov come to mind at once:
        1. zub46
          zub46 25 November 2013 17: 44
          +1
          Help ... People are lucky!
      2. Uncle lee
        Uncle lee 25 November 2013 14: 13
        +8
        It's only the beginning ! Have Efficient Managers built at least one refinery?
        1. uhu189
          uhu189 26 November 2013 10: 31
          0
          The Tuapse refinery was completely reconstructed, the Kirishi refinery was largely reconstructed, but in general there were a lot of reconstructions, but as far as I know, they did not build new ones.
      3. alone
        alone 25 November 2013 21: 23
        +2
        Quote: Far East
        Quote: seasoned
        Damn, statistics from the evil one, and all inflation is visible at prices in the boutiques ...

        in add, today went to a gas station salar costs 37.32. rub. stunned. hi


        belay my mine !! liter of solariums for more than a dollar? and this is in a country where there is bulk oil !!
        1. Apollo
          Apollo 25 November 2013 21: 33
          +1
          Quote: lonely
          my mine !! liter of solariums for more than a dollar? and this is in a country where there is bulk oil !!


          Why are you surprised ............ hmm since January 1 of the 2014 year, fuel prices will jump in Azerbaijan ........am Yes, so little will not seem to anyone. Although Azerbaijan, like Russia, is an oil-producing country. The question is why. winked
    4. VAF
      VAF 25 November 2013 14: 02
      +5
      Quote: seasoned
      Damn, statistics from the evil one


      Lyosha hello! Well, Mr. Leontyev showed himself in all his "glory" fool

      "He hears a ringing, but does not know where he is." taking the phrase out of context "trying" out of himself to "imagine" this "EXPERT" wassat , while it carries such nonsense that request

      Nabiulina is absolutely right:
      1. Need a new model. With this model, old or current, further only to collapse, because. the old one was built purely on export, and export collapsed, so you can forget about the mythical runway growth within 3-5%.

      2. If Mr. Leontyev is not in the know, then I would like to remind you that the new model, which is "running" all over the world, provides for 1,5-2% of the gross domestic product per year.

      So, would you go, Mr. Leontiev ... "forest" and ... "do not powder the brains of people" hi
      1. Papakiko
        Papakiko 25 November 2013 17: 54
        +1
        Quote: vaf
        forest "and ..." did not powder people's brains

        Comrad, I'll parry you with a simple cartoon.

        "The play is over ..."
        "Music will play in your house, but you will not hear it anymore ..."
        In different hypostases one and the same thought.
        But neither you nor I are the ringleaders of the round dance, so dances and choral singing will continue.
        Quote: vaf
        which "goes" all over the world, just provides for 1,5-2% of the GDP per year.

        This is all-holish populism and political prostitution.
    5. atalef
      atalef 25 November 2013 14: 07
      +1
      Quote: seasoned
      Damn, statistics from the evil one, and all inflation can be seen at the prices in the boutiques .... Economic growth is a utopia when the whole country does not produce but is economical and lawyer ....

      Statistics
      Abramovich, who decided to ride a tram, involuntarily made all passengers millionaires
    6. military
      military 25 November 2013 14: 58
      +5
      Quote: seasoned
      Economic growth is utopia

      the country is ruled by two "utopians" ... they will drown it for a couple ...
      1. alone
        alone 25 November 2013 21: 25
        +1
        Is Leontyev already a specialist in macroeconomics?

        I remembered the movie "Office Romance"))

        - You go ... to bookkeeping !!
    7. Sakmagon
      Sakmagon 25 November 2013 22: 23
      0
      "The trouble is, since the pies will start the cobbler oven,
      And the boots stitch the pastry,
      And things won’t work out.
      Yes, and a hundredfold
      What who loves to take someone else’s craft,
      He is always the more stubborn and absurd "...
      I. A. Krylov
      Great person! He talked about what he knew ...
  2. cosmos111
    cosmos111 25 November 2013 10: 35
    12
    "In accordance with clause" d "of Article 83 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation, from June 24, 2013, Alexei Valentinovich Ulyukaev shall be appointed as the Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation ... This decree shall enter into force from the date of its signing," the message says.
    By another decree, President Vladimir Putin appointed "" http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/news/13419391/aleksej_ulyukaev_nazn
    achen_ministrom_ekonomicheskogo # ixzz2ldVSvVkh

    An ardent liberalist and follower of the Gaidar with his monastic economy .. model.
    If GDP, makes such appointments, to whom the state .. Leontiev asks questions
    1. makarov
      makarov 25 November 2013 10: 52
      13
      "An ardent liberalist and follower of Gaidar with his monitarian economy .. model ..."

      As I have seen more than once on the site, the word "liberal" was included in the top of the most abusive in the Russian Federation.
      Can you explain to me, has it become more offensive than "homosexual", or is it quoted at the same level?
      1. vlad63
        vlad63 25 November 2013 11: 05
        26
        Direct proportional dependence - the more liberals the more pederasts.
      2. nov_tech.vrn
        nov_tech.vrn 25 November 2013 11: 05
        +7
        I don’t know what to say, but the super-economists would come to soap the rope for their own money
      3. Stiletto
        Stiletto 25 November 2013 16: 34
        +8
        Quote: makarov
        As I have seen more than once on the site, the word "liberal" was included in the top of the most abusive in the Russian Federation. Can you explain to me whether it has become more offensive than "homosexual", or is it quoted at the same level?


        Teacher for children:
        - My name is Alexei Venediktov, I am a liberal. Children, take turns introducing yourself as I do ...
        - My name is Masha, I am a liberal ...
        - My name is Boris, I am a liberal ...
        - My name is Little Johnny, I am Stalinist.
        - Little Johnny, why are you a Stalinist? !!
        - My mother is Stalinist, my father is Stalinist, my friends are Stalinists, and I, too, are Stalinist.
        - Fuuu. Little Johnny, and if your mother were a prostitute, your dad was a drug addict, your sister was a whore, and your friends were gay, who would you be then ?!
        - Then I would be a liberal!
  3. ivshubarin
    ivshubarin 25 November 2013 10: 35
    +7
    I don’t understand why foreign investments are waiting, when I don’t want to invest my own money. And so all theirs go to offshore and "piggy bank"
  4. Valery Neonov
    Valery Neonov 25 November 2013 10: 38
    +7
    "... although it has its own currency and its own sovereignty."-The RUSSIAN government is not enough, and so everything is in abundance ... while in abundance. hi
  5. Same lech
    Same lech 25 November 2013 10: 40
    +7
    I didn’t understand something. LEONTIEV — what is the reason for the problems in the government in its economic policy?
    I think that so far RUSSIA has kept itself at the expense of petrodollars and has invested little in the development of production and the construction of new plants.
    It’s impossible to live forever on petrodollars and sooner or later it will come back to haunt.
  6. Stiletto
    Stiletto 25 November 2013 10: 40
    +9
    Either I "hang" in the morning, or the comment is unclear. I read it two or three times, I did not understand anything at all. "The devaluation of the ruble will save Russia" - is that it? If so, then for our already skinny wallets such a measure is unlikely to be useful.
    1. washi
      washi 25 November 2013 12: 24
      +4
      Quote: Stiletto
      Either I "hang" in the morning, or the comment is unclear. I read it two or three times, I did not understand anything at all. "The devaluation of the ruble will save Russia" - is that it? If so, then for our already skinny wallets such a measure is unlikely to be useful.

      Rather, the opposite. The appreciation of the ruble makes export of raw materials unprofitable. There is a need for the production of deep processing, i.e. industrial development.
    2. Ustas
      Ustas 25 November 2013 14: 16
      +4
      Quote: Stiletto
      If so, then for our already skinny wallets such a measure is unlikely to be useful.

      Such a measure was already in 1992, when Gaidar applied shock therapy in the economy. Money fell at times. Well, who benefited from this? The current oligarchs! And the majority of the population of Russia is instantly poor.
    3. Metlik
      Metlik 25 November 2013 16: 52
      +4
      Quote: Stiletto
      "The devaluation of the ruble will save Russia" - is that it?

      Devaluation helps sell domestic products on the foreign market, but what can we sell other than oil, gas and weapons?
      1. Ingvar 72
        Ingvar 72 25 November 2013 17: 32
        +2
        Quote: Metlik
        Devaluation helps sell domestic products on the foreign market

        Exactly, on the outside. Therefore, China artificially lowers the renminbi, because the whole industry is exported. We are unlikely to have this focus, there is nothing to export, except for resources. good
        1. Yarosvet
          Yarosvet 25 November 2013 18: 36
          +3
          Quote: Ingvar 72
          China therefore artificially lowers the renminbi

          Duc and we have a course of cabbage in relation to the ruble is 70% overpriced.
  7. Jarilo
    Jarilo 25 November 2013 10: 51
    16
    Our economic policy is aimed at pumping out raw materials. Nobody even hides this. This model was built with us by Americans in the 90s. The Americans have a different model, stimulating production - a zero refinancing rate, i.e. it is a lot of money and, by the way, at the expense of us: we transfer our reserves to American treasury securities at 2% per annum, which, given inflation, is even unprofitable for us. The situation is this: there are incomes from the sale of resources, economic policy is aimed at ensuring that these resources are competitive in foreign markets, incomes from the sale of resources are sterilized so as not to accelerate inflation, while it is proposed to live on taxes from which the revenues from the sale of energy resources are removed but why take taxes if this economic policy does not allow production to develop. The situation is paradoxical.
    1. Pinochet000
      Pinochet000 25 November 2013 11: 14
      +5
      Quote: Jarilo
      The situation is paradoxical.

      Exactly, and in all areas, not only in the economy ... Theater of the absurd.
      PS Sometimes I ask myself, does our government control nuclear weapons or does it do someone else, like the economy, for example?
      1. zub46
        zub46 25 November 2013 17: 50
        0
        Most likely, the weapons are controlled by those guys who carry the "nuclear briefcase" and sit at the command posts of the Strategic Missile Forces. The government doesn't give a damn. And who is there to control. Tolyanu, or what? Shoigu remained.
  8. Nitarius
    Nitarius 25 November 2013 11: 02
    +3
    Take away the central bank and the USE from the USA!
    It is necessary to the bank Comes and FORCED TO REDUCE THE REFINANCE RATE!
    1. ivshubarin
      ivshubarin 25 November 2013 11: 08
      0
      And the Fed is independent of the US government
    2. teleset
      teleset 25 November 2013 13: 11
      +2
      need to change the law on the Central Bank. And the CONSTITUTION too.
  9. tabypetkin
    tabypetkin 25 November 2013 11: 18
    13
    "Besides fools and roads, there is one more problem in Russia: fools who indicate which way to go."
    1. Uncle lee
      Uncle lee 25 November 2013 14: 12
      +9
      You can fix it: fools roll on the road.
      1. shuhartred
        shuhartred 25 November 2013 23: 40
        0
        Roads from this will not get better. Can send all the fools the same way?
  10. pravednik
    pravednik 25 November 2013 11: 19
    +6
    Tell me, when did Russia rely on petrodollars? And who did they spend on? For the maintenance of officials and deputies, for the development of the foreign economy, for the entertainment of oligarchs. In general, they are RUSSIA. Simple people live only on what they produce or rather, what they give him to produce. And this article by Leontyev does not say anything concrete at all, an empty place.
  11. Goldmitro
    Goldmitro 25 November 2013 11: 47
    +3
    <<< Within the framework of the model implemented by our macroeconomic block, we must forget about Russia. >>>
    The economic policy that our libesrals, entrenched in power, stubbornly follow, in fact secretly leads (at best) to the same as the associative EU membership proposed by the West to Ukraine, i.e. the transformation of Russia into a powerless voiceless junior "partner", a supplier of resources for Western civilization! And in the worst case, this is the loss of sovereignty and the disintegration of Russia, its division between the economic leaders of the world!
  12. mountain
    mountain 25 November 2013 12: 02
    +2
    Adopt the law, as with the same, foreign agents and liberals are off the government.
    1. Yarosvet
      Yarosvet 25 November 2013 15: 21
      +6
      Quote: mountain
      Adopt the law, as with the same, foreign agents and liberals are off the government.

      1. Hleb
        Hleb 25 November 2013 17: 14
        0
        hello! and what did the video mean? that liberal economics is bad? or that Putin had to declare economic blackmail of neighbors and other "partners", for his own benefit? or just that he is confusing terms?
        1. Yarosvet
          Yarosvet 25 November 2013 17: 32
          +4
          Quote: Gleb
          what did you want to say with a roller?

          The video is written in the upper left corner.
          1. Hleb
            Hleb 25 November 2013 17: 53
            0
            why don’t you say hello?))
            Yarosvet are you a nationalist?
            1. Yarosvet
              Yarosvet 25 November 2013 18: 32
              +3
              Quote: Gleb
              why don’t you say hello?))
              Why are you poking without warning laughing

              Quote: Gleb
              Yarosvet are you a nationalist?
              Only when they try to grab a piece from the Russians.
              1. Hleb
                Hleb 25 November 2013 19: 35
                -2
                Well, about the Poke, we won’t, since you are not Russian. Sorry, I didn’t know. We are fine laughing
                but about the nationalist, you didn’t say: YES or NO. you started to explain when and in what case you are a nationalist.
                and this is here, with a long-familiar audience. what do you want from the president? what economy should there be? what is a liberal economy? Yarosvet, you are excessively on liberal websites) and bring emotions here
                no offense fellow countryman
                1. Yarosvet
                  Yarosvet 25 November 2013 19: 49
                  +3
                  Quote: Gleb
                  since you are not Russian
                  And right there
                  no offense fellow countryman
                  In general, Gleb - you pierced bully

                  Quote: Gleb
                  but about the nationalist, you didn’t say: YES or NO. you started to explain when and in what case you are a nationalist
                  Why say "YES" or "NO" if it depends on the external conditions, which I have designated?

                  What do you want from the president?
                  Enforcement of the current Constitution.

                  what economy should be?
                  The economy is always the same - only the legal methods of earning and the system of distribution of benefits differ.

                  What is a liberal economy?
                  The maximum number of legal ways to earn money - the more of these methods, the more liberal the economy.

                  Yarosvet, you are beyond measure on liberal sites
                  I am mainly in VO.
  13. sxn278619
    sxn278619 25 November 2013 12: 40
    +2
    No model within the framework of capitalism will give 6% growth in the global stagnation. To make import substitution, workers are needed (they are not there, all men work as security guards), import prohibition barriers (what about the WTO and the CU), the fight against corruption, etc. According to all the laws of capitalism, Russia is doomed to a raw materials appendage - it does it best.
    1. Sour
      Sour 25 November 2013 13: 15
      0
      Quote: sxn278619
      No model under capitalism will give 6% growth

      Growth percentages are not talking about anything. Under the USSR, with interest, everything was normal, only 90% of civilian products were needed by no one. The machines stood in warehouses and rusted, waiting for the end of the write-off period. Clothes and shoes rotted in warehouses, because everyone dressed and drew on imports, except for completely poor people. AND even weapons was often wasted. It was released so much that we still cannot sell it for some names. Or they gave away the so-called. "allies", such as Afgan and Ethiopia, and it is now wandering around the world.
      Conclusion: growth percent is not an end in itself. It is neither cold nor hot from them if they are not linked to the economic situation.
      Can interest be drawn, as Lukashenko is doing now, just what's the point? Warehouses of Belarusian enterprises are overstocked, but life does not get better, because inflation eats up the whole increase in wages.
      Quote: sxn278619
      all men work as security guards

      Want to get them to work for someone else? Will not work. To plow at the factory, you need qualifications and desire.
      Quote: sxn278619
      raw material appendage

      Quite a silly term. It is still necessary to figure out what are the appendages - raw materials or technological. High-tech Japan has a debt of 226% of GDP, while raw materials Saudi Arabia has 8% of GDP, and it (along with Qatar and Kuwait) is one of the main creditors of Japan. Russia has an external debt of 11% of GDP, while Germany has more than 80%. So think about who is the appendage to whom. The term "raw material appendage" appeared in the 80s, when a quartz watch cost as much as 15 buckets of gasoline. And now they cost like half a bucket of gasoline, and in some places even less. Now the term "raw material appendage" has lost all meaning, except for propaganda.
      Conclusion: no need to live the realities of the 80s. It's time to take a healthy and modern look at life.
      1. Grbear
        Grbear 25 November 2013 14: 20
        0
        Dear (albeit) Sour, but you are largely right.
        Leont'ev, like Kudrin, offer to stretch the country, but unlike Munchausen, not by the hair, but by a meter lower. Moreover, taking up the weakest and most unprotected place. Much more complicated:
        - to push the law on offshore, on investments in foreign countries and corruption (tough, and not of the type: - Not good. Ay-yay. - Okay, I won’t .;
        - taxation of surplus profits of natural monopolists (such "production costs" are buried there that mum do not cry);
        - develop a law on import substitution, when it becomes possible to monitor the effectiveness of the use of cheap loans;
        - to strangle the "networkers" in trade and all kinds of "black" bankers.

        All these guys, if you "run over" on them, they will immediately give you a drink, and not only Leontyev. So it's easier to "impose" on the Central Bank-shnuyu lady with a non-Russian surname and cry about Russia.
        1. Sour
          Sour 25 November 2013 15: 01
          +1
          Quote: GrBear
          Much more complicated:
          - to push the law on offshore, on investments in foreign countries and corruption (tough, and not of the type: - Not good. Ay-yay. - Okay, I won’t .;
          - taxation of surplus profits of natural monopolists (such "production costs" are buried there that mum do not cry);
          - develop a law on import substitution, when it becomes possible to monitor the effectiveness of the use of cheap loans;
          - to strangle the "networkers" in trade and all kinds of "black" bankers.

          I partially agree. Deoffshorization is ripe and really possible.
          As for anti-corruption laws, I am a pessimist here. The adoption of new laws will give nothing. If anything, the current laws are enough to the eyeballs. The fight against corruption in our country is complicated by many deep reasons, the main one of which is that there is simply no one to fight corruption in our country. There is no social support for this struggle, because not only the authorities are corrupted, but the whole country from top to bottom. And the fish here does not rot "from the head", but from the inside.
          Strangle networkers? What is it like? Ban them, or what? For me, I would better ban the markets, it would at least reduce immigration to the country.
          With regard to import substitution, again, not just another law is needed, but a firm-led policy. We have so many laws.
          --------
          In general, it is surprising that not everyone gave up the insanity of the early 90s, when there was a strong belief that any problem could be solved by adopting the right law. And let’s adopt the law obliging everyone to live well! And forbidding to live badly. And all the problems will disappear immediately.
        2. zub46
          zub46 25 November 2013 17: 53
          0
          Your suggestions encroach on the most sacred. Who will do this? No, cutlets separately, flies (population and production) separately.
      2. sxn278619
        sxn278619 25 November 2013 19: 55
        +3
        Quote: Sour
        The machines stood in warehouses and rusted, waiting for the end of the write-off period.

        What% of machines you need is what they do.
        In an ideal planned economy, this is not. It was? Yes, you need 10 machines - plans 12. two for parts.
        They tell us here, under capitalism, we need a machine, you write on the Internet, they will bring us tomorrow. Nonsense. He stood somewhere, rusted, and then the eccentric appeared, decided to buy?
        As for the means of production, capitalism is a planned economy.
        Need a machine, order (in the evening money, after 6 months the machine).
        Now in developed countries, the crisis of overproduction - in warehouses, everything rusts - from consumer goods to machine tools. That is why they are fighting for sales markets - Ukraine and others.
    2. Ustas
      Ustas 25 November 2013 14: 23
      +5
      Quote: sxn278619
      To make import substitution, you need working hands (they are not there, all men work as security guards)

      Duc and production is not where these working hands of men come in handy.
      Our government deliberately kills production. Where production is, there is a large collective of the working class. And the working class, as you know, the driving force of the revolution, capable of tearing down any power of the oligarchs.
      Paradox!
    3. shuhartred
      shuhartred 25 November 2013 23: 43
      0
      No need to generalize, I work in the field of real production and all my friends too.
  14. Sour
    Sour 25 November 2013 13: 00
    +1
    Leontiev is wrong - Russia must not be forgotten!
  15. Begemot
    Begemot 25 November 2013 13: 18
    +2
    In developed countries there is excess production capacity and if you need to increase the production of something (well, you never know - demand has grown) they are ready to do it instantly. We do not have such capacities, even what was destroyed, and to create them from scratch is already an almost insoluble task for the vast majority of market participants - the legislation will not allow doing something economically feasible. Add here a completely eliminated applied science - and there will be a completely understandable picture. If something can be done, it is illegal in the garage, secretly, by the efforts of migrants. In such conditions, competitive products cannot be made. In the last 20 years, the Gaidar model of strangulation of domestic business as uncompetitive has been implemented. First, competitiveness kills due to anti-inflation macroeconomics, and then the business is stifled by law.
  16. Ivanovich47
    Ivanovich47 25 November 2013 15: 05
    +4
    Can we talk about the predictable development of the Russian economy if domestic business is unpredictable and its actions do not correspond to any logic. Proponents of Russia's accession to the WTO argued that prices for imported goods would decline as duties drop. Tell me. What goods have prices fallen? With the fluctuation of prices for petroleum products, for consumers they always creep up. The idea of ​​Russian business is the same: tighten your pockets with currency and merge to London.
  17. DimychDV
    DimychDV 25 November 2013 15: 09
    +5
    A few examples of recent years.
    Intending to build a shipping oil terminal in the area of ​​Cape Elizariev near Nakhodka, they were going to give a damn about the fact that in the bay there is a regional natural marine reserve, in which 444 living axons live and around, and tens of thousands of Far Eastern people relax along the coast in summer. In addition, construction was started at the expense of the lands of one of the most successful dairy and livestock farms in the region. The impression is that the construction site has just been frozen. Well, they didn’t lose, you see, but they just crushed someone’s tail ... So they shut up. Till...
    Second. My friend is a ship chandler who supplies steamers with food. In the past few years, the attractiveness of ship calls to our ports has dropped below the plinth. Rosgranitsa requires a pass to the ports, and for persons on whom the seals and signatures depend, either there is a lot of other things, or the turnover from the office takes away. "Well, he is not. Come on Monday" And the Steamer will NOT wait from Friday !!! Port dues are not small. And sailors leave the coast hungry. AND THIS IS A VIOLATION OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONVENTION ALREADY 1964 ... After one of the OPTIMIZATIONS of paperwork - for crossing the border with a truck with products, they began to require THREE TIMES more papers.
    WELL AND HOW WITH SUCH APPARATUS DO YOU EARN MORE ???
  18. HollyGremlin
    HollyGremlin 25 November 2013 15: 30
    0
    Leontiev seemed to have drunk, he used to reason sensibly. Devolve the ruble, well done, and he thought about state employees? He himself will always find where to grab money, and for others what to do - suck paw? No, I’m not saying that it’s not necessary to change the macroeconomics. But obviously do not chop the ruble in the bud. Nabiullina does, for example, better than I thought (and much better than many). So, for me, it’s already good.
    1. Sour
      Sour 25 November 2013 15: 36
      +1
      Quote: HollyGremlin
      Devolve the ruble, well done,

      About the devaluation of the ruble with optimism say those whose salaries are tied to the dollar or the euro.
      1. Sergey_K
        Sergey_K 25 November 2013 18: 23
        +1
        About devaluation, they say those who understand that their industrialists need help.
    2. Sharingan
      Sharingan 25 November 2013 18: 44
      0
      Quote: HollyGremlin
      Nabiullina does, for example, better than I thought (and much better than many).

      Can life examples be? Really interesting.
  19. kaktus
    kaktus 25 November 2013 15: 52
    0
    Gaidar alive ??? stop But in the world there are many examples of economic recovery good yeah, break - do not build! angry (stream of consciousness after reading the article laughing )
  20. EvilLion
    EvilLion 25 November 2013 16: 46
    +1
    And with a fig whether we should not be satisfied with an expensive ruble? All high-tech products, including the same machines, we can take cheaper. The production of consumer essential goods in the Russian Federation feels great. I remember how before the crisis of 2008 I took a video card for 4k, then for many months the same card cost, at least not cheaper.
  21. Megatron
    Megatron 25 November 2013 18: 09
    0
    Understand corruption first, and there you will already see where to swim.
  22. pamero
    pamero 25 November 2013 18: 15
    0
    Misha, your words and to God’s ears. And a nedimon of power!
  23. bddrus
    bddrus 25 November 2013 18: 22
    0
    I don’t know how it is with the models, but certainly not to ask Leontyev
  24. serge
    serge 25 November 2013 18: 33
    -1
    And for what purpose to devalue the ruble? Most of our exports are raw materials and are not traded in rubles.
    And why should an unsecured ruble constantly devalue against an even more unsecured dollar? It would be more reasonable to prohibit the free circulation of foreign currencies in the country.
    And completely stop buying American Treasuries.
  25. sxn278619
    sxn278619 25 November 2013 18: 39
    0
    Quote: Sour, only 90% of civilian products were needed by no one. [/ Quote

    Well, this is just nonsense. The country's payroll had to be removed. It is equal to the cost of consumer goods produced plus the cost of imported. You claim that imports were 90%. In prosperous capitalist Russia, imports account for 40% of consumer goods.
  26. Ross
    Ross 25 November 2013 18: 55
    +2
    Quote: zub46
    To borrow money on an interbank loan - to lend it to another bank or citizen - to borrow again ... This is a super-visual diagram of the activities of all Russian banks without exception. The main reason for their existence. And we: "Investments, investments ...". Short loans are the main source of income.

    Airborne paper economy with corresponding empty bubble-growth.
    Remember the times of the USSR - what growth did they write then? About Millions of televisions, cars, tons of meat and eggs ... And now% of GDP that says nothing. Paradise for swindlers.
  27. july
    july 25 November 2013 19: 25
    0
    Quote: makarov
    As I have seen more than once on the site, the word "liberal" was included in the top of the most abusive in the Russian Federation.
    Can you explain to me, has it become more offensive than "homosexual", or is it quoted at the same level?

    Liberast is an economic bugger.
  28. Samsebenaum
    Samsebenaum 25 November 2013 19: 29
    +4
    "... Yes, we have a lot of problems in the economy ..."
    And even more - in those who are not able to cope with them ...
  29. sxn278619
    sxn278619 25 November 2013 21: 16
    0
    Who brought the greatest economic harm to the Russian Federation.
    Basaev and company.
    How many guards there were before him.
    And now - all the doors in the entrance must be paid from the apartment 60 p.
    Schools, hospitals, etc. surrounded by guards. Count.
    We have a hospital. At the entrance 2 people. 1 person by the stairs At the barrier 1 people. 4 * 3 12 people a day for 30 p. total 000 * 12 * 1,5 = 30000 rubles. from the budget for medicine.
    1. shuhartred
      shuhartred 25 November 2013 23: 51
      0
      And they will greatly help in case of what? We have a steel door in the stairwell and why, the whip both slept and sleep on the stairs.
  30. Stalnov I.P.
    Stalnov I.P. 25 November 2013 21: 17
    +2
    "Russia will remain a liberal, market economy", like this, with 2% of GDP per year, China is churning out at least 7% per year and for many years now, the question is who has the better economy. Stupidity, chaos, corruption, mediocre government, personnel policy, and nothing to say about our outstanding economists. Here you can’t expect the answers to all questions and improvements. Only a fundamental change in economic policy, this is a way out of the impasse, to drive everyone out of the economy Gaidar's last-borns, then a sense is possible, now it is the chatter of two lawyers.
  31. alone
    alone 25 November 2013 21: 27
    0
    However, Leontiev, you are fed up with your comments !!
  32. sxn278619
    sxn278619 25 November 2013 22: 13
    +2
    "Quote: sxn278619

    raw material appendage

    Quite a silly term. It is still necessary to figure out what are the appendages - raw materials or technological. High-tech Japan has a debt of 226% of GDP, and raw materials Saudi Arabia is 8% of GDP, and it (along with Qatar and Kuwait) is one of the main creditors of Japan. Russia has an external debt of 11% of GDP, while Germany has more than 80%. So think about who is the appendage to whom. "
    A barrel of oil costs $ 100. Of these, the cost of 20 dollars. This is the price of labor.
    A tablet costs $ 1. Of these, the cost of 000 dollars. This is the price of labor.
    Foreign trade is actually barter; you exchange one labor for another.
    Everything is normal 1 to 4 and the salary is also 1 to 4 (in the Russian Federation 900 dollars. In the USA 4200).
    And tomorrow Iran will throw in oil and the price of oil will be $ 60. per barrel. And the tablet will remain 1000 dollars.
    This is called a raw materials appendage, and they are technological.
  33. shuhartred
    shuhartred 25 November 2013 23: 53
    0
    I just do not understand where does the military review? stop
    1. Letterksi
      Letterksi 26 November 2013 10: 17
      +3
      Because the economic situation underlies the country's security, which means it can be an effective military mechanism and weapon. Back in World War I it was said that a battleship’s shot does damage not only to the enemy, but also to its own state. Because for the money spent on a shot, you can build a house
  34. Letterksi
    Letterksi 26 November 2013 10: 39
    +2
    Nothing new has been invented in economics since the 19th century. Read the book "The Paper Ruble" in 1895 by Talitsky (Sharapova) to answer yourself why the current economic situation is as it is.

    Inflation depends on two things. !!!! From the ruble mass of money in the country and from the foreign trade balance !!! From two things! And they are trying to make us believe that inflation depends only on the ruble money supply!

    What does the expression "the end of the oil economy" mean for modern Russia? This means that the foreign trade balance has been rapidly deteriorating since 2010. This accelerates inflation. Our Central Bank begins to slow down these processes by reducing the ruble supply of money in the country. For this reason, the price of money rises. Interest on loans begins to grow, people's labor begins to depreciate. Only usurers, speculators and owners of real estate and warehouses that can be rented out live on. The working man is in a complete enclosure. We see all this in modern Russia.

    But we also see something else, that a decrease in the ruble mass in the country no longer leads to a halt in inflation! What to do? Nationalize the Central Bank, and abandon its work in currency board mode. The state itself should issue rubles and invest them in its economy, and not receive them in exchange for a dollar received from the oil industry, as is happening now.

    When oil for Russia in the zero years gave an excellent trade balance, all the money received was spent on real estate and went offshore. Own production was not built. Now we are suffering from a hangover after a holiday of fatty zeros. Whose merit is this? Who is to blame for the incompetent squandering of money in zero?

    Nothing new has been invented since the 19th century. We again go forward in the 19th, into the trap of TNCs, as in the 19th the royal people did. But perhaps then it didn’t reach them. And now it is clearly visible
  35. VTugan
    VTugan 28 January 2014 14: 49
    0
    Those who, like Nbiullina, dream of investing, apparently did not hear Medvedev's report in Davos - this was when he was president.
    And he frankly admitted that he needed a 1% increase in investment for a 2% increase in GDP.
    Think about this sincere confession, which only exacerbates the guilt: where did the rest half of the investment gains go?
    After all, everyone has long known: if economic growth is Y = TI, I is investment, T is their multiplier, then growth is dY = TdI.
    Accordingly, its pace is the economic growth dY / Y = dI / I, that is, the efficiency of converting investments into economic growth = 100% !!! But this is only under the condition that T = const, and this is not so.
    New science - physical economy gives T ~ 1 / d, where d is the coefficient of variation of income directly related to inequality
    That is
    (1) dY / Y = dI / I- dd / d
    if dd / d> 0 is growth.
    Substituting into (1) Medvedev's "recognition" dY / Y = 1/2 dI / I> 0, we obtain
    (2) dd / d = 1/2 dI / I> 0
    Will you invest in a country where half of your money goes into income inequality?
    That is, - in the income of the richest 10th decile group.
  36. Orakyl
    Orakyl 28 January 2014 14: 57
    0
    Robots, do not mess with you! it’s business to nationalize the Central Bank and will will be a bundle. it’s necessary to think about the constitution, it’s not the same for us in American life, it’s not democratic.