Military Review

Will Moscow be able to replace Washington with Egypt as a key partner?

30
On November 14, a landmark meeting took place in Cairo between Russian and Egyptian ministers, namely, between the foreign ministers and the heads of military departments. On the part of Russia, Sergei Lavrov and Sergei Shoigu were present at the talks, and on the part of Egypt, their colleagues Nabil Fahmi and Abdel Fattah al-Sissi. Meetings of this format in stories Russian-Egyptian relations have never been carried out; in addition, the event was remarkable due to the fact that Cairo openly admitted its desire to bring relations with Moscow to a qualitatively new level. The same as in the era of Gamal Abdel Nasser. Does this mean that Egypt is disappointed in the United States? Do we need a new ally in the Middle East?


Will Moscow be able to replace Washington with Egypt as a key partner?


The chaotic connection of Cairo

The current interim president of Egypt, Adly Mansur, is a protege of the military, a puppet of a narrow circle of generals and high-ranking military officials. Despite the legal education, the new formal head of the country expresses exclusively the interests of the military elite and adheres to the “road map” drawn up by it. Adli Mansur - successor to Mohammed Hussein Tantawi and Abdul Fatah Khalil al-Sisi, chairmen of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. Thus, in order to have an idea of ​​the Egyptian foreign policy vector after the July coup and the resignation of Mohammed Mursi, it is necessary to carefully study what the AFWC sought, what role he assigned to the state on the world stage and who he saw as his main foreign allies and opponents.

The resignation of Hosni Mubarak under pressure from the military caused confusion in the diplomatic departments of many countries, primarily the United States: of course, Washington has long been preparing for the fact that Mubarak will leave, and even after the start of the protests, he knew when this could happen. Probably, the United States assumed that the military would take control of the situation in the country, but, surprisingly, Obama was at a loss after the February coup took place. The same can be said about France and Britain: The West has become accustomed to the fact that “democratic” coups usually take place in countries with weakened armed forces, “neutral”, disinterested in participating in politics, such as Serbia, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia or Ukraine . Egypt is a completely different case: it was foolish not to take into account the power and political activity of the army, hoping that some next pro-Western creature would come to power, and the military in the name of the principles of moralism would remain neutral, contemplating the destruction of the country. Yes, that was after the 2012 presidential election of the year, when the Armed Forces tried to play democracy. But this game did not bring any positive results, the generals quickly came to their senses and overthrew the newly appeared "people's" president.

The Western world tried to put pressure on the Egyptian military in order for the revolution to return to the framework of the pattern familiar to Euro-Atlantic observers. The upheaval in 2011, and even more so the re-coup of 2013, does not at all correspond to the ideas of Western countries about how exactly the "people's democratic" revolution should be accomplished. And if for the first time, before the constitutional referendum and the presidential elections, the United States and Europe swallowed a bitter pill, believing that the coup was just a temporary deviation and didn’t put too much pressure on the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, then after July 2013 realized that Western diplomacy the main obstacle in the implementation of the Middle East plans of Washington and Brussels, in connection with which it launched an offensive against Cairo. What we are seeing now: in October, shortly before the Russian-Egyptian negotiations, Barack Obama threatened that he would reduce the amount of financial assistance to Egypt by a quarter.

The Egyptian military, in turn, during the rule of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, pursued a policy of balancing, as did Hosni Mubarak, trying not to enter into confrontation with major global and regional players. Of course, because of the erratic diplomatic ties, the Switzerland of the Middle East from Egypt did not work. By inertia, the Egyptian military rulers, imitating Mubarak, flirted with the White House and tried to maintain a more or less acceptable relationship with America. In particular, in order to smooth out the blame for the diplomatic conflict with Israel, Cairo recognized the PNS as the only legitimate authority of Libya, and also one of the first to support the declaration of independence of South Sudan.

But Egypt did not cooperate only with the United States: at this time, Iran’s military ships for the first time since 1979 have been able to take advantage of the Suez Canal to go to the Mediterranean. This became a sensation: they started talking about a sharp change in the foreign policy of Egypt, although, as mentioned above, Cairo still hoped to maintain good relations with all the major players in the region, with the exception, perhaps, of Israel. Washington was probably embarrassed by such harsh diplomatic attacks: recognition of the PNS of Libya, negotiations on loans with the monarchies of the Persian Gulf, gestures of friendliness to Iran, confrontation with Israel and allegations of conservatism in foreign policy caused cognitive dissonance from American diplomats. Trying to maintain neutrality, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces in the eyes of Washington and Brussels acted highly illogically, which was probably the result of internal contradictions.

As for Russia, the Egyptian military recognized its influence in the Middle East, but did not rush to enter into negotiations and preferred an alliance with hostile Gulf monarchies, which at that time were satisfied with the humiliation of Egypt, and also sought to make it puppet Er -Riyadh, Doha, Manama.

Egypt's interests today

Cairo, in turn, does not want to obey the dictates of its eastern neighbors. This explains the July coup of the current year. Finally, the confusion and vacillation in foreign policy ceased, and it became clear to the military who it was who. In a situation where the US is putting pressure on Cairo more and more, and all imaginary friends want to snatch a tasty morsel from Egypt, the country's leadership has no choice but to look for new allies who did not have time to blacken themselves. Or seek help from those countries that will help Cairo to arouse Washington’s jealousy on the principle “I will show him that there are other guys.”

In both cases, Russia is ideally suited to Adley Mansur’s political intrigues and military. Based on the November 14 ministerial meeting, it’s hard to say whether Egypt is counting on long-term cooperation or just wants to show the US its foreign policy independence in the hope that the US allies will try to regain Cairo’s loyalty by bribing.

But, as it became known, the negotiators decided to hold joint military exercises, as well as to rebuild Egypt’s power supply facilities, which suggests that the second option is likely to be untenable, and Cairo wants to derive the greatest benefit from cooperation with Moscow True, politicians have not yet moved from words to deeds, and there have been no official reports about the training of engineers or the military for shipment to Egypt.

Is Egypt an alternative to Syria?

What will Russia get if Egypt becomes its ally? First of all, a naval base in the Mediterranean Sea with the possibility of access to the Indian Ocean. This base will become a reserve base and will replace Tartus if it is in the hands of the Islamists. Back in 2010, the Ministry of Defense stated that the fleet Russia needs bases in Libyan Tripoli and Socotra in Yemen, but the so-called Arab Spring has prevented the implementation of these plans. However, the Ministry did not abandon the idea of ​​increasing the Russian naval presence in the western Indian Ocean, and perhaps Egypt is considered as one of the permanent or temporary base of the fleet.

Some Russian publications, such as Nezavisimaya Gazeta, were quick to suggest that Saudi Arabia and its partners gave up Egypt to Russia in exchange for Syria. It is not known whether this is true, but the Gulf monarchies have already repeatedly demonstrated their duplicity and incompetence to both Moscow and other major regional players. As for Syria, on November 16, two days after the ministerial meeting, a telephone conversation took place between Vladimir Putin and Adly Mansur. During the conversation, the struggle between Bashar al-Assad and Islamism was discussed. A little earlier, Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, head of the Egyptian Ministry of Defense, expressed his readiness to cooperate with the Russian Ministry in matters of counter-terrorism. Thus, Cairo regards Moscow as a reliable ally in the confrontation with the Islamists of the Sinai Peninsula, as well as with the internal Islamist opposition. The Egyptian military expects that in the event of a rebellion by the fundamentalists, Russia will provide Egypt with exactly the same help as Syria, so that the generals will have chances to defend the country. It is foolish to expect such support from Washington: in the course of the Arab spring, the United States has never stood up in defense of the secular regime, and, as practice has shown, in all cases stand on the side of the Islamists.

The only condition that Russia needs to fulfill in order to dominate Egypt is to increase the presence of its fleet in the Mediterranean, and also to guarantee Cairo protection from Israel. But it is not yet known whether our diplomats and the military consider the possibility of including Egypt in the sphere of influence of Russia real. Accordingly, it is too early to talk about some far-reaching plans, especially the next elections of the president of Egypt can end with anything.
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  1. Civil
    Civil 25 November 2013 07: 36
    14
    Been friends once, that's enough.
    1. Greyfox
      Greyfox 25 November 2013 08: 07
      17
      What will Russia get if Egypt becomes its ally?

      Russia will get hemorrhoids and a parasite ready to betray at the earliest opportunity.
      1. Canep
        Canep 25 November 2013 08: 50
        +3
        Quote: Greyfox
        Russia will get hemorrhoids and a parasite ready to betray at the earliest opportunity.

        This rake has already worked once, only by the principle - in the morning money in the evening chairs. The Suez Canal will also do.
        1. Valery Neonov
          Valery Neonov 25 November 2013 09: 16
          0
          And to the Suez Canal, and to deploy long-range aviation.
      2. knn54
        knn54 25 November 2013 13: 19
        0
        The army surrendered Mubarak, the army put Mursi on the throne, the army removed him ... And how many armies does Egypt have, who knows ???
        1. alone
          alone 25 November 2013 19: 49
          +2
          Quote: knn54
          The army surrendered Mubarak, the army put Mursi on the throne, the army removed him ... And how many armies does Egypt have, who knows ???


          I wonder not how many of them. whom else did the Egyptian army not betray?))))
    2. LaGlobal
      LaGlobal 25 November 2013 09: 41
      +1
      Adli Mansour - successor of Muhammad Hussein Tantawi and Abdul Fatah Khalil al-Sisi


      - I swear, I almost broke my tongue, reading the names of these officials. Well, what can you do, such names.

      And as regards friendship itself, it seems to me that our strategists have no equal in this matter. Let them think if it’s worth it ...
    3. The comment was deleted.
    4. atalef
      atalef 25 November 2013 12: 26
      +5
      guarantee Cairo protection from Israel

      Just by reading this - I realized the article bullshit
      What protection, we have a world for more than 35 years, and relations between the military are not just wonderful, but excellent, from whom Egypt needs to be protected - it’s from the bandits entrenched in the Sinai that Israel is not bad and helps Egypt, Sisi was the main link between the General Staff of Israel and Egypt, they know him well and Israel only supports him, protection from Israel, that's nonsense
      Egypt has other problems, namely, the construction of a dam on the Nile (Ethiopia) and this has led the country to the fact that Sisi practically threatens them with a war, for this we need weapons, I will remind you under an agreement (19 of some year) 95% of the Nile’s water belongs to Egypt and Egypt is not going to share her
      But Egypt, of course, doesn’t have money, and it never was, that's why they received 3.1 billion from yastats
      1. Kasym
        Kasym 25 November 2013 23: 28
        +3
        Hello, hello You are there closer to Egypt, please clarify one question.
        Egypt at all times was considered a rich country, was the breadbasket of the entire Middle East and North Africa. All empires, at all times, tried to conquer Egypt. Now even they buy grain from us, the Americans contain an army for them. Like crowds of tourists crowded there, the Suez Canal and transit through it. And the country is poor. Why? I do not get it . request
        Regards, Dauren. hi .
        1. And Us Rat
          And Us Rat 27 November 2013 22: 33
          +1
          Quote: Kasym
          Hello, hello You are there closer to Egypt, please clarify one question.
          Egypt at all times was considered a rich country, was the breadbasket of the entire Middle East and North Africa. All empires, at all times, tried to conquer Egypt. Now even they buy grain from us, the Americans contain an army for them. Like crowds of tourists crowded there, the Suez Canal and transit through it. And the country is poor. Why? I do not get it . request
          Regards, Dauren. hi .


          In one sentence, monstrously disproportionate overpopulation. 80 + millions of poorly educated people in the middle of one big desert.
    5. StolzSS
      StolzSS 25 November 2013 19: 59
      0
      I agree with you. These rats are current friends in words. With friends like Arabs and enemies do not ...
  2. Denis
    Denis 25 November 2013 07: 41
    +4
    Only a partner, not a freeloader as before
    1. Vovka levka
      Vovka levka 25 November 2013 10: 49
      0
      Your words to God would be in your ears.
      But everything will be as always.
      Take Venezuela for example. Everything seems to be fine. They sold a bunch of equipment, on their own credit. All perfectly. But there is a small nuance. The loan will be repaid in local currency, and it has already devalued at least 6 times during this time.
      The ball will end, friendship will end.
      Everything in this world is simple.
      1. Denis
        Denis 25 November 2013 19: 15
        0
        Quote: Vovka Levka
        The loan will be repaid in local currency, and it has already devalued at least 6 times during this time
        As if the Venezuelan bolivars didn’t run into us, then yes ...
        And where is such inflation?
        There is no disaster there and the Chavez receiver has no patch on his head
        1. Revolver
          Revolver 25 November 2013 19: 41
          +1
          Quote: Denis
          There is no disaster there and the Chavez receiver has no patch on his head

          There is the construction of socialism with a Latin American face, which began under Chavez. But the trouble is that the main principle of this construction was "to the ground, and then." They are successfully approaching the foundation, but "then" they are constantly transferred to a bright future.
          Well, they also actively apply the principle of "take away and divide".
          NBC News recently posted an article
          [http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/11/21399541-venezuela-sends-in-troops
          -to-force-electronics-chain-to-charge-fair-prices]
          how the government forced an electrical store (TVs and washing machines are obviously essential goods) to lower prices to "affordable levels" and how it ended. The article is in English, but to understand the idea, Google Translate will do, and the pictures speak for themselves. Look, doesn't it look like anything?


          1. 31231
            31231 25 November 2013 22: 38
            0
            Yeah. NBSi about Venezuela, as America's Voice of the Union at one time.
      2. alone
        alone 25 November 2013 19: 52
        0
        Quote: Vovka Levka
        Take Venezuela for example. Everything seems to be fine. They sold a bunch of equipment, on their own credit. All perfectly. But there is a small nuance. The loan will be repaid in local currency, and it has already devalued at least 6 times during this time.
        The ball will end, friendship will end.


        and despite the fact that Venezuela exports oil. And payment in local currency is generally nonsense. I don’t understand, they take it with greens and return it with bolivars. Who gave them this loan?
      3. just exp
        just exp 25 November 2013 23: 01
        +1
        Venezuela allowed Russian companies to enter Venezuela; it may not refund money at all; companies will pay back taxes several times more from their activities.
        Threat one question - but where do the firewood that they pay national currency?
        1. Paleontologist
          Paleontologist 28 November 2013 23: 03
          0
          Where is the guarantee that companies will pay taxes from Venezuelan production to the budget of the Russian Federation?
          Venezuela has already demonstrated that it is able to nationalize the property of foreign companies. Where is the guarantee that they will not do this to the Russians when the wind changes?
  3. makarov
    makarov 25 November 2013 08: 02
    +5
    Some kind of unnatural "friendship"
    On the one hand, the "friend" of Turkey, which abundantly spoils Syria
    On the other hand, Egypt wants to see the "friend" of the Russian Federation.
    everything is somehow confusing ...
    1. Kiliny
      Kiliny 25 November 2013 08: 39
      +5
      There is no understanding at all with Turkey. They actively support the thugs in Syria. And they want to be friends with Russia, to enter into a customs union. To be honest, why does Russia need such friends who "both yours and ours .... wave" laughing
      1. saruman
        saruman 25 November 2013 11: 38
        0
        "The East is a delicate matter, Petruha!" The game is getting harder and more interesting. The situation is changing right before our eyes. An example is Iran and the Six.
        The West does not have the strength and unwillingness to keep the Greater Middle East under its influence. The West (USA) is gradually leaving, as the Roman Empire was leaving, slowly and leaving behind the chaos and power of the barbarians.
        Whether Russia will be able to take advantage of the situation and become an analogue of the Eastern Roman Empire is a big question.
        1. faraon
          faraon 26 November 2013 03: 32
          0
          The West has no forces and no desire to keep the Greater Middle East under its influence

          The West has enough strength to keep the entire Middle East. The policy of divide and rule has not been canceled. The West muddied the spring revolutions in the entire Middle East, which sowed controlled chaos. He gave loans that will pay off the great-grandchildren of those who borrowed. Those who tried to lead more he punished an independent policy distinct from the United States, whom he thought he needed was intimidated and forced to go in the wake of American policy. But who is not very understanding about them there are two watchdogs Israel and Saudi Arabia. And do not look at the official statements of these countries, rather it looks like this - "cute scold only to amuse themselves."
          Iran, after negotiations, has become a lap-dog, which is on the US chain, Egypt is still playing its game but under the leadership of the United States, Syria is on the verge or on the threshold of American democracy. Well, the one who has remained behind the scenes has long been satellite, allies, or vassals (choose who, like) America.
  4. Alikovo
    Alikovo 25 November 2013 08: 05
    0
    I think he can, at the meeting they discussed the possibility of creating a Ros.vmb in Port Said or Alexandria.
    1. faraon
      faraon 26 November 2013 03: 39
      0
      I don’t think it would be possible for the Navy bases to be in Alexandria or somewhere in the Mediterranean. If this happens, the states will immediately throw Egypt off their financial needle. And the current government does not need it. Egypt will flirt with Russia as if in the past in the hope of knocking out loans that he will repay with dates and then writing off, but no more. The states are closer than Russia.
  5. air wolf
    air wolf 25 November 2013 08: 16
    +1
    Here, too, not satisfied, again our loot will not go there. Syria needs to be supported, not these Egyptians, they sold us in the Sinai and will sell us again!
    1. Apollo
      Apollo 25 November 2013 08: 52
      +4
      quote-But it is not yet known whether our diplomats and the military consider it possible to include Egypt in Russia's sphere of influence. Accordingly, it is too early to talk about some far-reaching plans, especially since the next presidential election in Egypt can end with anything.

      Given the bitter experience of previous years, I wouldn’t want to run headlong, losing my head in the arms of the Egyptians. But you shouldn’t push them away either. The time has passed when the money wasted right and left. Cold calculation and the ability to profit on mutually beneficial terms,not prevent.
    2. faraon
      faraon 25 November 2013 13: 54
      +3
      Let me remind you with the same ease as Egypt after the Doomsday War, and Syria severed all relations with the USSR, accusing it of supplying bad weapons
    3. faraon
      faraon 26 November 2013 03: 47
      0
      Syria, it’s time not to support but to take off the Russian needle. Look, Iran has actually gone to the states, it has become pro-American and is in the wake of Amer’s foreign policy. It follows that it will stop feeding Syria financially, and if it continues, it’s only with the permission of the United States that Syria will fall under Amerov, sooner or later. Now Iran will give oil to the mountain at dumping prices, the Russian economy will collapse. Therefore, leave the Middle East as soon as possible, and deal with the anti-crisis measure in Russia and not spend the day Guy to support odious regimes, which in one way or another will fall under Amer.
  6. Ddhal
    Ddhal 25 November 2013 09: 07
    +1
    I agree with the previous comments:
    Russia is not the USSR, a "cash cow" for rushing beneficiaries is not an option.
    It's time for the country's leadership to learn how to improve our life in you, and not the life of the ruling groups of "fraternal" peoples at our expense ..
  7. aszzz888
    aszzz888 25 November 2013 09: 27
    0
    And Russia needs a naval base in Egypt, and a channel is needed, and much more. But there is no free cheese, except a mousetrap. The Egyptians are up to something, and if only they themselves?
  8. nod739
    nod739 25 November 2013 10: 45
    0
    Quote: makarov
    everything is somehow confusing ...


    it looks like a mexican series
  9. Pimply
    Pimply 25 November 2013 11: 05
    +2
    To begin with: the United States annually pours into Egypt at least 3 billion dollars. Given the fact that the budget is now wildly cut, try to assess whether Russia is ready for such a development of relations.
  10. nod739
    nod739 25 November 2013 11: 24
    0
    Quote: air wolf
    . Syria needs to be supported, not these Egyptians,


    not so long ago there was a time when Syria and Egypt were one state. though not for long.
    I mean, these are states that are close in mentality ... although, of course, Egypt is far from the same, the West pours a lot of money there for "support".

    but just do we have a lot to say about the Arctic and the Northern Sea Route, but the Suez Canal is direct competition, and the grandmas are not small, something strange in this friendship.
    all Egypt graters are mostly due to the canal, and by itself, nafig doesn’t need anyone except Egyptologists.
    will see
  11. nnz226
    nnz226 25 November 2013 12: 14
    0
    Can Moscow replace Washington as a key partner in Egypt? Can not! Arabs are corrupt, like a port girl, and the Americans will have more money: they will buy the top of Egypt with offal. Already passed: under Nasser, what they just didn’t build and how they weren’t armed, and in 1967 they helped not to endure the disaster, so what? Sadat sold out to the Americans with a joyful screech! And the annual help of the Americans to Egypt in 1,6 (or 1,9) billion dollars, are we now unfastened ?! Not enough money! Here, if you help, then in exchange for the same Navy base on lease for a period of years on 50, and sell weapons, not deliver! Then it makes sense ...
    1. ZU-23
      ZU-23 25 November 2013 14: 12
      0
      Almost everything is corrupt, even Ukraine fraternal performs Che, so you don’t need to compose brains, there’s nothing left to do but bring everything back to normal. All the same, Egypt is not a frail resort for Russia, plus our market.
  12. faraon
    faraon 25 November 2013 15: 51
    +2
    on the Russian Black Sea coast, it’s no worse than that, it’s better to bring money there; raise the tourism industry in Russia.
    What is the market there? This is a poor country, or again on credit, and then the cancellation of debt. Or do you think that the Americans give money. I’ll disappoint you no, they supply military products for this amount.
  13. Katsin1
    Katsin1 25 November 2013 16: 38
    +2
    I see the situation with the prospect of a strategic alliance between Egypt and Russia as such:
    From the point of view of Egypt:
    1) plus - Russia will not demand "democratic elections" with the participation of Muslim brothers
    2) cons - Russia will not give 2 billion a year, Russian weapons are inferior in quality to American, but given that no one is threatening Egypt, I don’t see a big problem for Egypt
    1. Revolver
      Revolver 25 November 2013 19: 56
      +2
      Quote: Katsin1
      given that no one is threatening Egypt

      Even as threatened. Ethiopia is going to block the faucet with it, but not oil but water, which is even worse. If they block the Nile, in Egypt those remnants of agriculture that still hold out will end, and the main power station in Aswan will lose a considerable part of its capacity. Yes, that there is electricity - maybe there people will have nothing to wash there simply, or even interruptions in drinking water will begin.
  14. Klim
    Klim 25 November 2013 17: 55
    0
    Jews are one of the Arab tribes, for me let this inter-tribal war continue, but everyone needs help but only for money
    1. Alew
      Alew 25 November 2013 20: 19
      0
      Quote: Klim
      Jews are one of the Arab tribes

      This was revealed when studying DNA. In fact, relatives.
      1. Revolver
        Revolver 25 November 2013 21: 52
        +2
        Quote: ALEW
        Quote: Klim
        Jews are one of the Arab tribes

        This was revealed when studying DNA. In fact, relatives.

        Well, yes, according to the Scriptures, both Jews and Arabs descended from Abraham. But there is a difference. Jews descended from Isaac, the son of Abraham, from his legal wife, Sarah. And the Arabs came from Ishmael, who allegedly Abraham (no one did DNA tests at that time) had taken root from the servants (and it seems to be like slaves in general) Hagar, that is, by law - a bastard, who does not have any inheritance rights.
  15. Sterlya
    Sterlya 25 November 2013 21: 15
    +1
    this is how Yermolnik said. climb a camel dollar, it seems normal. but get off already 50.
  16. Severin
    Severin 26 November 2013 08: 51
    0
    It’s been a long time, nicknames of commentators with Israeli flags have changed, comments have remained the same, hehe.
    Iran lay down, Syria will lie down, in general, all lay down Russians run. Everything is much more complicated than you want to show, the game is on and who will receive dividends from it will be visible in the long term. And while Israel is getting several armies trained in battles under its side, I do not say that pioneers are sitting in the IDF, but its enemies did not have before such learning. Although it is also still a very long term.
    1. faraon
      faraon 26 November 2013 11: 24
      0
      But how else can it be called an agreement between Iran and the United States, secret negotiations, Amane, easing and easing sanctions against Iran already speaks for itself. Syria without Iran’s support will have to tight because permission to help will be given primarily from the United States. And now the most important feature of this agreement. Oil prices are already starting to fall, Iran is underway, under the wing of the United States, and how this will affect the Russian economy, I think you remember the collapse of the Soviet economy in the 80s of the last century and what it led to. dividends.
      Well, and as for the enemies, even now they have not particularly succeeded, to wage a third year of war and the end is not visible, both from the Assad’s army and from the opposition, does not seem suspicious to you.