Reading the next article on the APR prompted me to write this answer.
Article "Australian bridgehead USA" again it is told about strengthening the cooperation of the USA with its allies in the region. I would like to consider all the events taking place in this region from a slightly different angle than is customary in recent times. I also want to move away from the ATP a bit to understand why everything will concentrate precisely here in the 21st century. And for this you will need to dive a bit history main players. But first things first.
Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States - this is one process of the British crown of the "Nugal Saxons." So to discuss this topic is not particularly worth it. The only important thing is that this is another confirmation that the APR is the number one priority for the United States. Moreover, for Chinese scholars and supporters of the Chinese threat, APR is a top priority for Russia and for China. And Australia is the main prize of China in the fight for the APR. The two continents with untagged resources are Australia and Africa.
However, with the beginning of the article, I do not agree. The union indicated in the article does not exist. What are the strategic prospects for South Korea and Japan? The same Japan and the Philippines? Or Australia outside the British top five - what is it like? This is a patchwork alliance that has no future.
Moreover, I am surprised at the blindness and one-sidedness of all authors and analysts who write and reason about the APR. The thinking of the absolute majority at the level of the cold war 80-x, unfortunately, and our compatriots with them in the same row.
My opinion is. The ATP is a new “Big Game” of the twenty-first century. And the players in it will not be two. There will be no US-China confrontation there. There are too many opportunities and interests. At a minimum, there will be separate independent players in this game, such as China, Japan (after the end of the US occupation), South and North Korea (after unification), the USA and crown shards, a certain presence of India and Russia is possible through an alliance with Vietnam, Indonesia Islamic factor, South American Union. At least seven forces with different visions of the future and their own interests will influence the fate of this region.
Of course, at different stages of history there will be some combination of these forces. At the beginning of the “Big Game” the most important and uncertain factor is, of course, the rapid development of China. It was this factor that began to change the balance of power in the region. Not less significant event is the weakening of the United States. Fire and fuel met, and the reaction went.
In the classical assessment of the dispositions of the parties, a “typical opinion” arises about the struggle for the Asia-Pacific Region as a confrontation between China and the USA and Co. In such a formula, everything is quite predictable. China is growing due to the power of its economy and the demand for its goods in the international market. He spends part of his income on the development of his army and fleet. A strong army and economy give China opportunities to influence its neighbors and solve not only economic issues, but also political and territorial ones. The development function of China is linear here - more economy, stronger China.
On the other hand, there are the USA, which, due to their consumption culture, have driven themselves into a debt trap. As long as the United States was the number one superpower and the world's gendarme with the biggest stick, no one could resist this state of affairs. The period of monopoly on power lasted all 90-s and the beginning of 2000-x. However, during this time, the EU appeared, Russia came to its senses and began to pursue a sovereign policy and restore its strength and influence, and China made its economic breakthrough. As a result, the United States ceased to be the only center of power on the planet and turned out to be completely unprepared for new challenges.
The first bell of the new world order was the collapse of the dot-com in 2001 year. Then, in practice, the failure of the “new economy” - the so-called “post-industrial” - was shown. The virtual economy was not accepted by the entire world, although it was very demandingly imposed by institutions controlled by the United States.
The leadership of the Western powers did not appreciate the full significance of this event and did not draw conclusions. To extinguish the fire, the virtual money of the “new economy” was simply transferred to the US mortgage market. Someone at the top thought that real estate in the capital of the “new world” is a true eternal value that will never lose value. And because it is the US real estate, or rather, derivatives based on mortgage securities, will be infinite real security for the dimensionless emission of the dollar as the only virtual currency of the "new economy".
The consciousness of the leaders of the “Western project” could not accept the idea that the world is not static, and their domination, gained in the 1991 year, would not last forever. The New World Order of which they were dreaming came into this world, but not at all the way they had planned it.
By this time, the US economic leadership had already been lost, many productions had already been transferred to the Asia-Pacific Region and, in particular, to China. However, the loss of one “economic hand” of such a giant as the “Western world” did not mean its collapse. Since there remained other levers of influence, such as "the world of finance, divorced from the real economy," political influence and, of course, the armed forces.
The next period the US administration decided to spend in a cowboy style. The failure of the imposition of a virtual economy and virtual values has forced the United States to return to the old methods of imperial policy. Few people pay attention to this, but as soon as the dot-com collapse in the United States ended, only a few months later, the “virtual terrorists”, which hadn’t been before, captured real planes and crashed into the twin towers in New York. Immediately switching the attention of the whole world from the US fraud in the "virtual economy" to the great US mission to combat terrorism. Isn't that a beautiful metaphor? Terrorists destroy the World Trade Center in the capital of the planet’s finances - as a symbol of the US virtual economy imposed on the whole world during the 90's period?
The trial ball in the “cowboy style” of the United States was driven back in 99 year, bombing and tearing Yugoslavia. However, then it was in the interests of political consolidation in Europe and the creation of a hotbed of instability for the future, if the Europeans suddenly decide to turn "not there." Since the 2001 year, the United States acted exclusively in the imperial style (divide and conquer), putting economic resources under control. Stop at this stage is not worth it, because we all know what happened at that time and what it led to. The US got involved in several costly wars, wasting its resources not on restraining its competitors in world politics, but on destroying savages. In Afghanistan, they implemented a drug project against Russia and Europe, in the Middle East laid the prerequisites for the development of long-standing hostility between Sunnis and Shiites in the active phase of the conflict. However, for the United States themselves, the price was too high.
Having lost the real economy and industry, the United States increased the costs of the war. Grown and appetites gunsmiths. Such a phenomenon is normal for capitalism. The price of oil has increased several times, including due to the fact that Russia at this time withdrew from contracts for the allocation of resources or changed the terms of these contracts. There was a shortage of cheap or gratuitous petroleum products on the market, which led to an increase in prices. China continued to grow at an enormous pace and increasingly began to declare itself as a new geopolitical player. The EU, having consolidated the economic power of several states under one roof, also grew bolder and began to show the beginnings of independence from the United States. Serious changes occurred in the spaces of the former USSR. Russia has ceased to be a permanent borrower and is out of control of the United States.
The “Western project” under the leadership of the United States began to lose its second hand - “political influence”. For a long time no one could challenge the influence of the United States in world politics. However, 10 February 2007, this situation has changed. In Munich, the President of the Russian Federation made his speech on the current world order and introduced the term “multipolarity” into world politics. This event prompted other world leaders to rethink their place and think about whether to serve the United States as loyal vassals or to start an independent policy for the benefit of their people.
And this time the rulers of the United States did not feel the changes in the world around them and began to act according to their imperial program. We decided to punish Russia in the weakest place - in the Caucasus. Over the next year, a military operation was being prepared against Russia using Georgia and terrorists in the North Caucasus. The rally was held in August 2008, but the US failed this operation and showed its real weakness.
This led to a final reassessment of the values of the “virtual economy”. Someone is trying to give a similar course of events for coincidence. But only two months after the war of 888 and the attempt to punish Russia, having collapsed its financial system, the response crisis came to the USA and all other countries.
There was a loss of dominant political influence in the world: one “vassal” said that was enough, and the empire stumbled. This led to the fact that other vassals thought about their freedom. It undermined the faith in the United States as the only superpower on the planet. And as a result of such a reassessment, faith in the “virtual economy of the United States” disappeared, and as a result, real estate in the United States ceased to be “the only reliable value”.
The collapse of the US mortgage system, which led to the collapse of the global financial system. The consequences of these events are manifested today, and will continue by inertia for some time, until the US dollar ceases to be the world currency №1.
The “Western project” has now lost its “financial hand”. This does not mean that the United States has ceased to control world finances, or that no one needs the dollar anymore. But 100% US control lost. Many countries began to raise the issue of a different reserve currency, began to form trade unions with mutual settlements in national currencies. ” Many other events have occurred that will have to be left outside the scope of the issue under consideration.
However, the West still has resources to control the world, and the most significant of these are the “information space” and military force.
Sensing a threat from Russia, the West has begun informational swinging of the country from the inside. China, however, it was decided to weaken in the same way, adding to this also the blockade in the struggle for raw materials. To destroy the Russian economy, it was decided to get away from Europe’s energy dependence on the supply of Russian raw materials. And to stop the supply of resources to China, it was decided to destabilize the partner countries of China in the Middle East and Africa. The result of such decisions was the cycle of "Arab revolutions", swept through many countries of the Middle East and North Africa.
Europeans were supposed to get cheap oil and gas from North Africa - like Algeria and Libya. Also, after overthrowing the authorities in Syria, stretching gas pipelines from SA and Qatar to Europe. And the formation of states such as South Sudan and Islamist speeches in other countries were designed to reduce the influence of China and limit its access to resources in these countries.
However, these plans were poorly thought out. Information dominance of the West no longer had the same strength as in 2004 or in 2008. It was then that the authority of all Western media was destroyed in the eyes of many nations of the world. When Fox News presenters silence a little girl who tells the truth, this is a clear failure and loss of control over the minds of people around the world.
Finally, the Western media lost prestige after the events in Libya. Such failures have deprived the “Western giant” of information dominance in the world, perhaps the main weapons West history.
Recent events related to Snowden's revelations have led the whole world to start thinking about how to remove US control over the Internet. So the US information dominance is also ending.
However, another side of the power of the West (and the United States in particular) manifested itself in Libya. The myth of the invincibility of their armed forces was dispelled. For almost half a year, Colonel Gaddafi resisted both Islamists of all stripes and the whole power of NATO. The events in Syria only confirmed this trend. It was during this period before the leadership of the United States still begins to reach that the world has changed and that their forces are not immense. So far, the US is still economy No. 1, and dollars are printing at a rate of about 30 billion per month. But this will soon come to an end. Because you need to take real steps to change the situation. There are several steps, one of which we are interested in is the reduction of government spending, including for the armed forces. Moreover, there comes a reassessment of priorities in foreign policy. The US already understands that it cannot control the whole world at once. Then the program "The role of the United States in the international economic relations of the countries of the Asia-Pacific Region" appears, as well as the well-known program "Ensuring global leadership of the United States: priorities in the field of defense of the 21st century."
The essence of these programs, everyone can understand from the title, and if you wish, and read more carefully. It is important that the very theme of the role of the APR in the 21st century originates from here.
Continued in the second part.