Military Review

Celestial Empire repeats the mistakes of the Soviet "perestroika"?

59
Celestial Empire repeats the mistakes of the Soviet "perestroika"?

In China, social tension is growing, due to the deterioration of the economic situation of the country as a result of internal system errors and the global crisis. Against this background, the plenum of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) adopted a “road map” (action plan), defining how the next — fifth — stage of the reform in the Middle Kingdom will take place. Signs that the PRC may become a victim of “perestroika” are becoming ever clearer, and the explosion of the “Chinese factory” will cause the next wave of the global crisis.


Chinese "restructuring"

The 3 th plenum of the CPC Central Committee of the 18 th convocation adopted a plan from the 60 points, which in fact leads to the liberalization of China. The key points of the roadmap are:

- reduction of government intervention in the allocation of resources;

- access of private enterprises to a number of industries will be allowed and expanded;

- local administrations will receive the right to issue bonds;

- private capital gets the right to create small and medium-sized banks, other financial structures;

- By 2020, Chinese enterprises will return 30% profits to the treasury against the current 15%, these funds will be used to increase the welfare of citizens and improve the quality of life;

- there will be a softening of state control over tariffs for water, energy and fuel;

- peasants will receive the right of pledge and sale of land, which in China belongs to the state;

- restrictions on internal migration will be gradually lifted;

- management systems and a working mechanism for fighting corruption will be improved;

- Reforms and construction of relevant institutions and mechanisms to combat formalism, bureaucracy, waste and hedonism will be carried out;

- The course for the liberalization of criminal law. In particular, labor re-education camps that have been operating in the country since 1957 will be eliminated. Until recently, over 300 labor camps operated in China, and 260, thousands of people, were serving their sentences in them. There citizens could be placed without a court decision for up to four years. As part of liberalization, the system of “rectification through labor” will be abolished, the list of crimes punishable by the death penalty will be reduced, work will be continued to prevent wrongful judicial decisions, confessions obtained under torture and physical abuse, and ill-treatment. In general, China is heading for a policy of protecting human rights;

- The People's Republic of China will start implementing the new policy in the sphere of planned childbirth, the policy of “one family - one child” will be relaxed. For the first time since the beginning of the 1970s, Chinese families will be allowed to have two children, if one of the parents was the only child in the family;

- optimization of the size and structure of the PRC armed forces will be carried out, the number of non-combat institutions and the number of PLA will be reduced. It is planned to accelerate the formation of a new type of combat forces;

- Xi Jinping also informed about the crucial role of the market in the allocation of resources, the deepening reform of the financial and tax system, the establishment of the State Security Council and the creation of the Central Steering Group on the comprehensive deepening of reforms.

The main goal of the program is the separation of government and market (with changes in government functions), creating favorable conditions for the development of market relations. It is planned that the current “road map” will determine the development of the People’s Republic of China by 10 years. A prerequisite for the adoption of this program was the slowdown in the PRC economy in recent years due to an overabundance of production capacity, debt problems and a loss of competitiveness (in particular, Chinese workers have become more expensive than in neighboring countries of Southeast Asia). The Secretary General of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China Xi Jinping and Premier of the State Council of China Li Keqiang, who came to power a year ago, personify the new course.

It is very alarming that Western experts enthusiastically welcome the results of the plenum of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party. Economists at Goldman Sachs state: "The plan showed commitment to reform and increased target indicators." “It is necessary to recognize that this is the most impressive statement about reforms that we have seen in this century,” experts of Capital Economy are delighted. I remember that in the West at one time they admired and rejoiced at the reforms that Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin were pursuing. However, “perestroika” and “shock therapy”, according to their results, have become worse for Russia than the invasion of the Hitlerite hordes.

There are other indirect signs that China is on a disastrous path. So, 14 in Shanghai in November, the Institute for the Study of the Quality of Welfare at the Research Institute of the Chinese Luxury Goods Market published a “Report on Luxury Items in China”. It reports that in 2013, the total amount of luxury goods consumption in China reached the sum of 102 billion US dollars, in the same year the figure of the whole world set a record - 218 billion dollars. Thus, the Chinese have bought almost half of the luxury goods of the world, and China has become the largest buyer in the world market for luxury goods. 19 November has come newsthat China ranked second after the United States in the number of billionaires in the state. In China, there are 157 billionaires, and this is excluding 75 billionaires from Hong Kong.

China has changed a lot in recent years. Appeared base for large-scale social protests. The Chinese middle class already accounts for the most of the population of the Russian Federation, the average salary has grown. However, against the background of the masses of the poor peasantry, this class is rather small. Therefore, by hook or by crook, peasants are trying to get into the cities. The number of protests has grown. Today, the authorities are no longer hesitating to use military force against numerous rallies of citizens across the country. They prefer to convince them of the need for the current course of “deepening reforms”, advertising the many achievements of the PRC under the leadership of the CPC. And the achievements are really impressive. However, they appeared due to the fact that China has become a "global factory." The global crisis makes this “factory” unnecessary. Beijing tried to maintain acceptable growth at the expense of huge public investments in infrastructure and industrial projects, which either pay off only in the future or are generally questionable. In addition, Beijing’s large-scale efforts to increase domestic consumption in order to reorient the economy from export to domestic demand take time, and it simply does not seem to be there. China was late with the development of the domestic market. And it is impossible to raise the standards of consumption of more than a billion people to the American-European level. The second "golden billion" planet simply will not pull. The presence of the "first golden billion" and caused a global systemic crisis.

However, ordinary people can not explain it. Chinese citizens have become accustomed to the constant growth of wages and living standards. They are not ready to "tighten their belts." The crisis in the Chinese economy will automatically cause a powerful wave of social protest. The younger generation began to feel more free. In addition, it is Westernized, spoiled by the attention of the family: it’s not for nothing that the only sons are called “little emperors” (one of the negative consequences of the “one family - one child” policy). They are used to indulging everyone, they fulfill their whims. Highly explosive material! In social networks openly discuss the development of China. There are nationalists of all stripes, traditionalists, supporters of the restoration of classical socialism, social justice and neo-Maoists. There are supporters of liberalism, who believe that it is time to gradually abandon the Marxist ideology and move on to a different path of development, follow the path of liberal reforms, and begin mass privatization. The majority of the middle class is indifferent to ideology, they do not oppose the CCP, as it helps to ensure stability and a rapid increase in wealth. It is known that social protest often arises not when the standard of living is low, but when it rises rapidly, but people's expectations grow even faster. One of the most acute problems of Chinese society is ahead of the growth of expectations of consumption growth.

In recent years, a new generation of workers has become noticeable. They also actively use the Internet, they are aware of the situation of workers in other countries. During the crisis, they established contacts with the “new left” from the intellectual environment. The “new leftists” are supporters of Mao Zedong's covenants and subject modern capitalist China to harsh criticism. Obviously, with the development of the global crisis, the positions of the “new leftists” who have support in the intelligentsia and the working class will be strengthened. The threat from the separatists will also increase. Xinjiang Uygur region reminds itself more and more. 18 November came the news of the attack 9 gangsters with cold weapons to the police station in the town of Serikbuya, Bachu County. Two people were killed, two policemen were injured.

It is clear that now “perestroika” and a serious weakening of China or even collapse into autonomous provinces, the civil war in Xinjiang and between the rich coastal provinces and poor mainland areas seems like a fantastic movie script. In 2007, China’s economy became the third largest in the world in terms of GDP, overtaking Germany. In 2010, China became the second largest economy after the United States, overtaking Japan.

Some experts believe that in a few years the PRC economy can overtake the USA, becoming the leader of the world economy. At present, China is the first exporter of industrial products, and has the largest gold reserves. But in 1984, the USSR also seemed indestructible to titanium, but that did not save it. It took only a few years for the Soviet Union to collapse.

China faces serious problems: overcrowding, lack of energy resources, poor environmental conditions. In addition, the prevailing economic model of the People's Republic of China is a model of the periphery, where the low cost of goods sold for sale was supported by cheap labor. Beijing has serious problems with finances, despite seeming well-being. For a long time, considerable foreign exchange earnings were invested not in the development of the national economy of the PRC, but in the “financial bubble” of the United States. China brought the United States a double benefit: first produced cheap goods for America, and then invested the proceeds in the US market. And the success of the industrialization of the PRC was determined by the capacity not of the domestic, but of the world, mainly American, market. Now the United States is pursuing rapid industrialization. As a result, the United States first created the “Chinese miracle”, and now it can be buried together with China. Due to the global crisis, up to 40% of the capacity of Chinese industry was not loaded. The Chinese economic model is in deep crisis.

Summing up, I must say that, apparently, the CCP top, following the "great teachings of Deng Xiaoping" (developed the principle of "socialism with Chinese characteristics"), has already passed the stage of transformation into a party bourgeoisie, quite pleased with its consumer status. Some party leaders already live as millionaires. According to social studies, up to 80% of the Chinese bourgeoisie consists of direct blood relatives of high-ranking party officials. Party and business elite form a single whole. Therefore, attempts to raise wages and increase domestic demand face direct sabotage. The following scenario is obvious. We have already passed it in Russia.
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  1. Volodya Sibiryak
    Volodya Sibiryak 21 November 2013 08: 47
    10
    So the quote pad Mao will soon become irrelevant?
    1. INTER
      INTER 21 November 2013 10: 11
      12
      Can China merge artificially on the principle of the USSR? He has been making too much of himself lately, and not for the sake of the West.
      1. APES
        APES 21 November 2013 14: 38
        +6
        Quote: INTER
        Can China merge artificially


        try - that's for sure.
        1. INTER
          INTER 21 November 2013 14: 40
          -1
          Quote: APES
          try - that's for sure.

          Of course this is evil, but on the other hand it is in our hands.
          1. APES
            APES 21 November 2013 14: 47
            +5
            Quote: INTER
            the other hand is at hand


            Social upheavals in a neighboring state - especially in a country like China, are not very comfortable somehow - here it is now necessary to lay down nuclear explosives along the perimeter of the border, just in case ......

            Imagine the worst option - the Chinese Civil War - where will the refugees run?
            1. Crrusader40
              Crrusader40 21 November 2013 16: 28
              +1
              Moreover, if in China there is pro-American power, then there will be their military bases, missiles, etc.
              Thus, Russia is surrounded on all sides, which is not very desirable.
            2. alone
              alone 21 November 2013 22: 13
              -2
              Quote: APES
              Imagine the worst option - the Chinese Civil War - where will the refugees run?


              certainly not to America. 99% of 100 to Russia.
      2. atalef
        atalef 21 November 2013 19: 15
        +4
        Quote: INTER
        Can China merge artificially on the principle of the USSR? He has been making too much of himself lately, and not for the sake of the West.

        This is a natural process and no one merges anyone, just the tops cannot, the lower ones do not want. Marx is a classic.
      3. Interface
        Interface 21 November 2013 22: 12
        +1
        It doesn’t matter if China collapses, then there may be a terrible terrible crisis, but Russia may not be soared about the economic and political expansion of China in Central Asia and the Far East.
    2. ed65b
      ed65b 21 November 2013 12: 13
      +4
      Quote: Volodya Sibiryak
      So the quote pad Mao will soon become irrelevant?

      moreover, he will soon be taken out of the mausoleum himself.
      1. rate
        rate 21 November 2013 18: 48
        +1
        Now it’s clear that Bo Xilai, on the contrary, defended socialism. Everything, as usual, was vilely distorted, replaced and slandered. Like with Beria. And why did they need an institute studying the experience of the USSR? Sorry.
        1. atalef
          atalef 21 November 2013 19: 18
          0
          Quote: normal
          Now it’s clear that Bo Xilai, on the contrary, defended socialism.

          During Bo Xilai - in China they ate worms and shot sparrows - half of the country went hungry, 70 million were in labor camps.
          Want to say that now the Chinese live worse? They can come back - an example is not far - Sev. Korea. --- But socialism.
    3. atalef
      atalef 21 November 2013 19: 14
      +1
      Quote: Volodya Sibiryak
      So the quote pad Mao will soon become irrelevant?

      It has not been relevant for a long time
      Quote: Volodya Sibiryak
      So the quote pad Mao will soon become irrelevant?

      and call China the country of socialism can only be blind.
  2. vladsolo56
    vladsolo56 21 November 2013 08: 50
    14
    A market economy introduced on the foundation of socialism, besides specific) will only lead to a worsening of the political climate in China. For ordinary people, such an economy will not bring anything good, which means there will be no stability in the country
    1. Orik
      Orik 21 November 2013 08: 58
      32
      The problem is not in the economy, but in the worldview. The Chinese noticed that they bought almost half of the luxury goods in the world. As soon as a person begins to associate himself with a thing, he ceases to be a person. After all, all luxury goods are the service of their own egoism. The egoist, like a cancer cell, consumes at the expense of others.
      1. knn54
        knn54 21 November 2013 15: 22
        +2
        -Orik: The problem is not in the economy, but in the worldview.
        TRUE: Since the time of N. Khrushchev, the very idea of ​​socialism has been discredited. Social egoism, opportunism, and criminal mentality prevailed. From there TOTAL corruption and the roots of ethnic conflicts. All this, while, managed to escape the Chinese.
        1. atalef
          atalef 21 November 2013 19: 41
          +1
          Quote: knn54
          That's right! Since the time of N. Khrushchev, the very idea of ​​socialism has been discredited

          What are the countries where it has remained true? where a citizen is the master of his country, where relative equality and prosperity
      2. Sour
        Sour 21 November 2013 18: 23
        0
        Quote: Orik
        The Chinese noticed that they bought almost half of the luxury goods in the world.

        And divided equally between all Chinese laughing laughing laughing
      3. atalef
        atalef 21 November 2013 19: 36
        +1
        Quote: Orik
        The problem is not in the economy, but in the worldview. XNUMX

        ????????

        Quote: Orik
        Noticed the Chinese bought up almost half of the luxury goods in the world

        So they have a population of one fifth of the world (and if you remove the underdeveloped Africa and Pakistan with some Bangladesh and half of India) - so half and grandmothers are there. So why not treat yourself? What car are you driving in? I can assure you that your car is simply a luxury compared to
        1. alone
          alone 21 November 2013 22: 16
          +4
          and what, quite a decent African "Harley Davidson")) laughing
          1. Thunderbolt
            Thunderbolt 21 November 2013 22: 41
            +2
            And why is he riding without a helmet? belay
    2. Valery Neonov
      Valery Neonov 21 November 2013 10: 12
      +3
      And given quantities dissatisfied "ordinary people" neighboring states should expect huge waves of migrants from the Middle Kingdom.
      1. APES
        APES 21 November 2013 14: 36
        0
        Quote: Valery Neonov
        expect a huge wave of migrants


        in the worst case, refugees
    3. sergey32
      sergey32 21 November 2013 10: 56
      +2
      So I thought, what will happen to the Chinese economy if cheap 3D printers appear everywhere that quickly and for little money reproduce any thing?
    4. APES
      APES 21 November 2013 14: 43
      +1
      Quote: vladsolo56
      which means there will be no stability in the country


      will not be

      Quote: vladsolo56
      Simple people


      It remains only to sympathize.
      as one of the options where they are being pushed is a civil war
    5. atalef
      atalef 21 November 2013 19: 28
      +2
      Quote: vladsolo56
      A market economy introduced on the foundation of socialism, besides specific) will only lead to a worsening of the political climate in China

      Of course there will be a bundle. because but China is living better than it used to be. and manages to half the world (if not the whole world) I'm not talking about dressing and shoes. Therefore, it makes no sense to equate dogmatically socialist China with China today.

      Quote: vladsolo56
      For ordinary people, such an economy will not bring anything good, which means there will be no stability in the country

      Again stability - I like this word. The Chinese, 25 years ago, were steadily starving and the whole world was steadily putting bolts on them. Now there may not be * stability *. but it seems to me like that. that the Chinese can handle it. they beautifully moved from socialism to semi-capitalism, now they will begin to move to 75% of capitalism (you paid attention to the land - permission to sell, mortgage)
      \ Stability - the whole world is stable towards the Chinese and the States are running to bow (if they wish, they can cut it down by simply throwing their bonds onto the market)
      Maybe you want to compare with another country - where stability - stability and the boat do not swing. Only in China there are no tandems. there pr-in is changing. Perhaps that is why they live so shitty.
  3. makarov
    makarov 21 November 2013 09: 05
    +3
    Quote: Orik
    The egoist, like a cancer cell, consumes at the expense of others.


    But this "cage" also has a lot of positive things that should be adopted. For example, caught with drugs in his hands, trial, sentence, execution.
    1. Mairos
      Mairos 21 November 2013 09: 58
      +4
      It should not be forgotten that it is very easy to plant drugs in any person's house or bag. In this way, it will be too easy to bring under the "watchtower" anyone who has interfered with some of the powers that be.
  4. Stiletto
    Stiletto 21 November 2013 09: 05
    +8
    "The Chinese Economic Model is in Deep Crisis". Where, then, are all the other economic models? (If anything, this is a rhetorical question, the moderation will not miss answers to it) bully
  5. Kirzhak
    Kirzhak 21 November 2013 09: 08
    +2
    Law of life: The higher you climb, the harder it is to fall.
  6. Senya Gorbunkov
    Senya Gorbunkov 21 November 2013 09: 22
    +3
    I really hope that China will not repeat the fate of the USSR and overcome a dangerous turn, without geopolitical injuries ..
  7. Predator-74
    Predator-74 21 November 2013 09: 29
    +1
    Nevertheless, it seems to me that the fall of China will not be as painful as the USSR. I personally have no doubt that it will be.
  8. Prometheus
    Prometheus 21 November 2013 09: 52
    0
    If history repeats itself, perhaps Xinjiang will separate? .. recourse
  9. Revolver
    Revolver 21 November 2013 09: 52
    13
    The Chinese decided to go for a rake? Perfectly. I think that we urgently need to send Mishanya Mechenny there as an internationally recognized consultant in this "good cause" (good not for China, but for the rest of the world). laughing
    Quote: from G. Oster's book "Bad Advice"
    If you are the whole world of violence
    Gonna destroy
    And at the same time you dream of becoming
    To all, being nothing
    Feel free to follow us
    On the paved road
    We are this way for you
    We can even yield.

    But seriously, I would like the wave of shit rising in China to not overrun its borders.
  10. Standard Oil
    Standard Oil 21 November 2013 10: 03
    +9
    All the same, I think the Chinese will not follow the path of the USSR, they always have a very clear example in front of their eyes, I hope that the Chinese love their country more than the Soviet people, who watched the collapse of the country with stupid indifference, and the entire so-called Soviet "elite "sold to the West, however, like the current Russian one, the Chinese do not seem to be trying to copy the West with stupid Gaidar stubbornness, they are simply trying to isolate the best from the Western model and cut off the worst. And what shines to China under capitalism according to the" Western Model "™? Return to the "good old" 1930s? Yes, China will immediately fall apart into several pieces hostile to each other, and who will feed the billion mouths that remain abandoned? Of course, the Americans would very much like this, because it is much easier for a corporation to pay one of the newly appeared "emperors" for gratuitous workforce, which will work for a cup of rice a day, than to negotiate with a clever handheld computer.
  11. Archikah
    Archikah 21 November 2013 10: 38
    +7
    When thinking about the future of China, a methodological error crept in. The author is right in everything except the assessment of the Chinese themselves. Gentlemen, the Chinese are completely different people. This is not a different mentality, but a completely different perception of the world. Their life principles were not formed under the influence of Christian commandments. This is a Taoist Confucian model of worldview. The fact that they are kind of integrated into the global system only confirms their ability to follow the principles of Confucius. And the United States, using a controlled chaos scheme, is now trying to sacrifice this China. Well, maybe in theory it will bring them about 15 years of such a life to what they are used to. But practice will not confirm their calculations. But for Russia - the disaster of China, this is another matter. If China collapses with the expectation of Russian paralysis, this is a viable strategy. A deterrent wave of hungry Han Chinese will simply sweep away all the barriers in the Far East and how cockroaches will spread across Russia. Here from this thrills. And it will not be a war, but a creeping expansion.
    1. biglow
      biglow 21 November 2013 18: 31
      0
      Quote: Archikah
      When thinking about the future of China, a methodological error crept in. The author is right in everything except the assessment of the Chinese themselves. Gentlemen, the Chinese are completely different people. This is not a different mentality, but a completely different perception of the world. Their life principles were not formed under the influence of Christian commandments. This is a Taoist Confucian model of worldview. The fact that they are kind of integrated into the global system only confirms their ability to follow the principles of Confucius. And the United States, using a controlled chaos scheme, is now trying to sacrifice this China. Well, maybe in theory it will bring them about 15 years of such a life to what they are used to. But practice will not confirm their calculations. But for Russia - the disaster of China, this is another matter. If China collapses with the expectation of Russian paralysis, this is a viable strategy. A deterrent wave of hungry Han Chinese will simply sweep away all the barriers in the Far East and how cockroaches will spread across Russia. Here from this thrills. And it will not be a war, but a creeping expansion.

      the Chinese will not climb north, it’s all happened, the turmoil will begin and China will drown in civil wars ... it’s just the Taoist principles that keep the Chinese in China because they must die at home or not far from home and be buried there, for the Chinese it’s very important...
  12. S-200
    S-200 21 November 2013 10: 41
    +2
    After the death of Mao, the CPC leadership carried out such transformations that allowed not only smoothly implementing economic reforms, but also ensured the continuity of power and the smooth rotation of the leadership of the CPC and the country ...
    EVEN even if some kind of "bastard" like our EBN or Humpback gets at the helm of China, he will be easily removed from power, and if they don't let a bullet in the scruff of the neck, then the rest of the days, like Bo Xi Lai, he will polish the bunk .. ...
    Non-Mass riots (some 200-300 thousand))) of separatists and "radical crap" they will calmly trample the NAC tanks so that the whole of China does not break out ...
    At the helm of the CCP is a sensible leadership (unlike our political bureau of the late 80s), which, although it consists of individual groups, is decided collectively, not authoritarianly!
    It is not beneficial for the United States or for us to specially "drown" China ...
    And the Chinese leadership has a much more robust approach to solving internal and external problems than many other states ...
    drinks For a rich neighbor and mutually beneficial cooperation of our countries!
  13. aszzz888
    aszzz888 21 November 2013 10: 42
    +1
    I remember that in the West they once admired and rejoiced at the reforms carried out by Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsi


    I do not think Xi Jinping is a US agent, like a hunchback. These are they i.e. the Britons and the mericatos rejoiced that their humpback agent was ruining the USSR, which, unfortunately, was successful in the bald.
    1. smprofi
      smprofi 21 November 2013 15: 19
      0
      Quote: aszzz888
      I do not think Xi Jinping is a US agent, like a hunchback.

      probably not, not an agent. but the contacts of the Celestial Empire with the gringo are denser and denser.
      November 2013. For some reason, not half a word in Russian in the "news":



      hunhuys visiting a gringo on a submarine SSN-759 USS Jefferson City (class Los Angeles) and on the aircraft carrier CVN-70 USS Carl Vinson (third in class Nimitz).
      September 2013




      aboard the aircraft carrier CVN-73 USS George Washington (sixth in the Nimitz class).
      November 2013



      gringo on the ships of the Middle Kingdom
      November 2013




      This is true. from the last.
  14. morpogr
    morpogr 21 November 2013 10: 49
    +2
    I would like my neighbor not to have such shocks as in the USSR and the changes go smoothly for us, it will be calmer.
  15. RUSS
    RUSS 21 November 2013 11: 46
    +1
    The USSR and the PRC in their current form are completely different economic models, so problems and their solutions cannot be compared. China has more problems in the fact that the people began to live better, and "the appetite comes with eating," many revolutions proceed from this, especially the bourgeois ones. Simply put, the "lower classes" understand that their income may be even higher, and the "upper classes", on the basis of super profits, want to increase their capital by changing the state structure and economic policy.
  16. chunga-changa
    chunga-changa 21 November 2013 12: 12
    0
    Dauzh, and how happy "partners in the market and liberal freedoms" are. China will be enough for them for another 15 years, and they have almost taken up their allies, rich Arabs and Israel, and here is such a gift. After China, after all, in general, anyone can be robbed and no one will squeak.
  17. ed65b
    ed65b 21 November 2013 12: 17
    +6
    It's simple, the Chinese oligarchs, or the Communists, decided to go to a different level. After the collapse of the CPSU, all of China will be sawn down following the example of Russia, and the oligarchic elite will resolve around the world to burn their lives, as we do. The period of capital accumulation is over, it is time to legalize it and put it into practice. And since this is impossible to do under the CPSU, it means that the CPSU must be removed by perestroika. Glory to Gorbachev.
  18. vahatak
    vahatak 21 November 2013 12: 23
    0
    The ongoing reforms cannot be compared with perestroika, since in China only the economy is affected, not politics.
    But even if there was Soviet-style perestroika, everything will be limited to the decline of the Communists, and the integrity of the state will be preserved, since in China the Chinese are the vast majority, and not half the population, like Russians in the USSR.
  19. Chicot 1
    Chicot 1 21 November 2013 12: 46
    +3
    Let it repeat. And preferably with more catastrophic consequences ...
    The only minus for the collapse of China for us is the increase in the mass of Chinese migrants who will seek to enter Russia. But if desired, this problem can be dealt with ...
    For the Indians, the collapse of the PRC will be an even greater gift than for us ... Pakistan, of course, will get bored. But even now he is a dull sight ... DPRK may still be bored. But even that is not too much. They are already sitting on American rations and their alliance with the Chinese is nothing more than nominal ... But Vietnam and other countries of the region will not be opposed to such a scenario. And Taiwan will in general be in seventh heaven with happiness ...
    So the disappearance of a strong and united China will benefit many. Including us. And by the way, in many aspects. Including in the economic one. Finally, we will stop buying Chinese goods and maybe this is what will spur the development of our own industry for the production of "consumer goods" ...
  20. svskor80
    svskor80 21 November 2013 13: 10
    +3
    There is still no clear decision by the Chinese authorities what to do with the billion peasants. How to seamlessly integrate them into capitalism, this is a potential source of social explosion that will demolish the well-being of the Chinese bourgeois-bureaucratic elite.
  21. WIN969
    WIN969 21 November 2013 13: 20
    +2
    Well, to hell with them.
  22. WIN969
    WIN969 21 November 2013 13: 20
    +2
    Well, to hell with them.
  23. Odysseus
    Odysseus 21 November 2013 13: 23
    +1
    The conclusions of the article are mostly incorrect. There is no analogy between the events in the USSR (1985-1991) and the PRC. Perestroika in the USSR was a "revolution from above" undertaken by the degenerated party leadership to legalize capital with the inevitable dismantling of the socialist state. Market reforms in the PRC (coming by the way since 1979) is the use of market mechanisms that are advantageous in the PRC for accumulating capital while preserving the social state as a prerequisite for preserving these capital. There is not a single reason why the leadership of the CPC would now benefit from the liquidation of its own state.
    Moreover, China already had a sad experience of existence within the framework of capitalism (the beginning of the 20th century), and the same sad experience of the USSR is before my eyes.
    “Revolution from below” due to a decrease in economic growth rates from 11 to 8 percent (and income growth rates, on the contrary, increased) also does not threaten the PRC.
    The real threats to the PRC lie on a different plane - an increasing confrontation with the West (primarily the United States). For this there are objective conditions, for two "Golden Billions" on one planet, resources may not be enough. And here, of course, the West can use any attempts to destabilize the situation in the PRC - provoking social discontent, Islamic separatism, ideological struggle, surrounded by military bases, etc.
    1. smprofi
      smprofi 21 November 2013 15: 24
      0
      Quote: Odyssey
      The real threats to the PRC lie in a different plane — an increasing confrontation with the West (primarily the United States). ... surrounded by military bases, etc.

      see above my comment. while military cooperation between China and Gringostan only increases momentum
      1. Odysseus
        Odysseus 21 November 2013 16: 00
        +2
        Quote: smprofi

        see above my comment. while military cooperation between China and Gringostan only increases momentum

        There has been no military cooperation between the Western countries and the PRC since 1989. Only military contacts between the two countries increase momentum, this is one of the factors demonstrating the increased interest of the United States in the PRC. The United States finally recognized the PRC as a world power.
        In general, the entire modern US military strategy is based on the transfer of military force in the Asia-Pacific region and the strengthening of allied relations with all states in the Asia-Pacific region that have conflicts with the PRC, or with the US satellite states. Japan, South Caucasus, Philippines, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, even socialist Vietnam.
        At the same time, the Pentagon constantly publishes reports on the military power of the PRC pedaling the "Chinese military threat"
        1. smprofi
          smprofi 21 November 2013 16: 40
          +1
          Quote: Odyssey
          The United States finally recognized the PRC as a world power.

          here I absolutely agree with you.
          Quote: Odyssey
          strengthening allied relations with all states in the Asia-Pacific region which have contradictions with the PRC

          and here it’s not quite so. according to Marx and Engels, it seems, it should be so, but in reality it’s not quite so.
          when the Celestial Empire very tightly began butting with Nippon because of the islands, Shinzo Abe rushed to Gringostan for support. there he was given to understand "figure it out yourself." the announcer on the Chinese television channel CCTV was very happy about this (it was necessary to see how the talking head was already glowing with happiness). however, the EU did the same with Nippon.
          and the transfer of aviation and air defense systems to Nippon from Gringostan was made only when Kim Jong-un made a buzu, but not because of the Hunhuz.
          Quote: Odyssey
          At the same time, the Pentagon constantly publishes reports on the military power of the PRC pedaling the "Chinese military threat"

          and this is the case. That's why there are "reports" to knock out banknotes. commonplace, generals want to eat. I can add, for example, recently the commander of the submarine fleet of Gringostan made a report on enemy submarines (either in Congress or in the Senate, it does not matter). So, besides the Russian and Chinese submarines, the submarines of ... Iran figured as a terrible threat. horror what a threat to the entire "free world" ...
          1. Odysseus
            Odysseus 21 November 2013 22: 31
            +1
            Quote: smprofi
            and here it’s not quite so. according to Marx and Engels, it seems, it should be so, but in reality it’s not so

            Well, in general, the US "transfer of forces" strategy to the APR is a fait accompli, there is also very close cooperation with countries rivals / opponents of the PRC. As for the conflict over the islands ... Well, I don't know, it's hard for me to imagine a full-scale conflict between Japan ( where American bases are located) and the PRC in which the United States would not have taken part. Japan just wanted the United States to immediately participate in propaganda and military, and the United States at this stage prefers not to quarrel openly over trifles. Although, of course, options are possible ...
            Quote: smprofi
            and this is the case. that's why there are "reports" to knock out banknotes. commonplace, generals want to eat

            I agree, but this is not only that. Western culture is the culture of the enemy. They need an image of an enemy that can frighten ordinary people. After the demise of the USSR, they got bored and created a surrogate for themselves in the form of "international terrorism." But a surrogate, it is a surrogate and is, it looks painfully ridiculous This is a scarecrow. So now they are actively molding a new, more effective image of the enemy - a terrible "Chinese threat".
    2. atalef
      atalef 21 November 2013 19: 44
      +1
      Quote: Odyssey
      Perestroika in the USSR was a "revolution from above"

      In China, the same is from above. just smart Zn Xiao Ping came and realized - you can’t continue to live like that and from above, slowly, they achieved it. who are now - there is something to envy.
      1. Odysseus
        Odysseus 21 November 2013 22: 53
        +1
        Quote: atalef
        In China, the same is from above. just smart Zn Xiao Ping came and realized - you can’t continue to live like that and from above, slowly, they achieved it. who are now - there is something to envy.

        Indeed, from above, only in the PRC it was not a revolution, but evolution. If briefly in the late 70s, the PRC had three ways - to continue isolated development (as under Mao), to be friends with the USSR (Soviet model), to be friends with the West against the USSR ( use of the market). The Chinese leadership has chosen the 3 way, in general, for the PRC this turned out to be the right decision, but there is a danger of a mismatch between a profit-based economy and ideology. extremely difficult.
  24. USNik
    USNik 21 November 2013 13: 33
    +2
    Quote: vahatak
    the integrity of the state will be preserved, since in China the Chinese are the vast majority, and not half of the population, like the Russians in the USSR.

    Revolutions are made by an active minority. Most passively and simply look at the collapse of the country, and as they say now, stocking up on popcorn floats with the flow. The PRC only lacks its marked traitor who is ready to lead the stratum of the current party functionaries - future oligarchs who are already in China and are ready to transfer the national heritage into their own property. Everything else is already ready - there is Western mass culture, there is tension in the regions, there is a stratification of the population, there are also regional groups interested in preserving and increasing power. Everything so far rests on the "old cadres" who understand what the "young reformers" will lead the country to. Fortunately, there is an example before my eyes, unfortunately.
  25. mountain
    mountain 21 November 2013 14: 01
    +2
    The Chinese Communists planted such a bomb in their country that all dreams of world domination will end in the same way as the cultural revolution.
  26. Nayhas
    Nayhas 21 November 2013 14: 17
    0
    Honestly, the indignation of citizens about the changes in China is not clear. What choice do you all offer them? Do nothing and wait? Start tightening the nuts and pushing tanks any performance?
  27. Nayhas
    Nayhas 21 November 2013 14: 17
    0
    Honestly, the indignation of citizens about the changes in China is not clear. What choice do you all offer them? Do nothing and wait? Start tightening the nuts and pushing tanks any performance?
    1. smprofi
      smprofi 21 November 2013 15: 29
      0
      Quote: Nayhas
      Start tightening the nuts and pushing tanks any performance?

      in general, you’re right about this somewhere because recently a fair amount of equipment such as armored personnel carriers has appeared in the Celestial Empire, which are not very suitable for a war against an armed enemy, but they will feel very good against demonstrators.
      at least this (so as not to dig the Internet for a long time)


  28. sha20289145
    sha20289145 21 November 2013 15: 31
    0
    The experiment on the Soviet base. Social capital experiment.
  29. T-73
    T-73 21 November 2013 15: 34
    0
    The devil knows what China has in mind? And even more so with the CCP. Are we going to see the implementation of the Chinese 500 Days program?
  30. EdwardTich68
    EdwardTich68 21 November 2013 18: 00
    0
    They rejoice not at the beginning of Chinese "perestroika" but at the desire of the PRC government to raise the standard of living
    People. Imagine how the global economy will revive the ability of 1350000000 billion Chinese to consume goods at least at the level of the peoples of Eastern Europe. Etozh Skoko Tugrikof
    can be cut down, and the way out of the crisis is not far away. smile
  31. Sour
    Sour 21 November 2013 18: 02
    +2
    In fact, China's economy is very vulnerable. Not only does it depend heavily on fluctuations in the global environment, but it is also very dependent on imports of raw materials, especially energy and iron ore. We are used to complaining about the raw material dependence of the economy (in the sense of exporting raw materials), but the dependence of raw materials in the sense of import is a hundred times worse. For example, the Australians will want to melt their ore themselves (and what, they will not be able to?), Then China will be awesome as unsweetened. All industry, except some, will rise in one and a half to two years.
    The Chinese understand this, therefore they are not very greyhound in matters of foreign policy.
    As for "socialism with Chinese characteristics," this has long been propaganda. There is no more socialism in China than in today's Russia. For some reason, no one calls Putin a supporter of socialism, but the leadership of the CCP is called by inertia that way.
    1) In China, the share of the public sector in GDP is about 45-55%, which is comparable with Russia.
    In foreign trade, the share of the public sector is 55%, in the civil processing industry 27%, in agriculture 0%.
    2) In China, pensions are guaranteed only to public sector employees, security officials and civil servants. Only a quarter of Chinese people over 60 are eligible for retirement. And in Russia, one way or another, a pension (even a meager one) is guaranteed to everyone.
    3) In China, paid medicine, paid higher education.
    4) There is huge unemployment in China. The authorities, however, cleverly underestimate it, not counting the unemployed rural residents. According to Chinese statistics, if you have even a tiny vegetable garden, then you are "self-employed", not unemployed. A huge number of Chinese people work abroad. If not for this, there would be a social explosion.
    5) In China, a millionaire and even a billionaire can be completely legal. They are even taken to the party.
    -------
    Whoever believes in "Chinese socialism", let him go to Europe. There are a lot of Chinese, only some come there as tourists and throw money, while others work there in low-skilled jobs. For example, they serve their wealthy compatriot tourists as bartenders and waiters, as maids and taxi drivers.
    Socialism there has long died, from it there remains only a one-party system and the name of the party. Well, also a red flag.
    1. Sergg
      Sergg 21 November 2013 21: 22
      -1
      Well said, I also think so. It’s a pity not everyone wants to understand this, apparently people need the illusions that a communist society is being built somewhere else. In fact, decaying capitalism has put its claws everywhere, and by the way, capitalism is really decaying, it is strange that it wins ...
      1. Odysseus
        Odysseus 21 November 2013 22: 45
        0
        Quote: Sergg
        Well said, I also think so. It’s a pity not everyone wants to understand this, apparently people need the illusions that a communist society is being built somewhere else.

        There’s nothing good here — Sour simply twisted it so much that it’s too lazy to paint it all. If briefly, he is mistaken both in general and in the details.
        In general, if there is no socialism in the PRC, and capitalism has long been, then why is it not abandoned in the PRC? Self-contradiction arises. The capitalists building socialism is "dry water" oxymoron. In reality, if the leadership of the Communist Party is heading for capitalism, then they very quickly come to it (Eastern Europe, USSR).
        In addition, anyone who claims that there is no socialism in the PRC must know where it is, that is, must know a certain image of “correct socialism.” But this image simply does not exist, since socialism is not a social formation, but a transitional stage between formations.
        PS A little lower, he generally denies Marxism, which leads to yet another self-contradiction, if there are no social formations, then how can one deny the presence or absence of socialism in China or somewhere else.
        He is simply engaged in anti-Chinese propaganda campaigns.
        1. Sour
          Sour 22 November 2013 09: 24
          0
          Quote: Odyssey
          In general, if there is no socialism in the PRC, and capitalism has long been, why in the PRC do not refuse it?

          They refused him a long time ago, but they did not inform you. You do not know (or do not want) to distinguish words from deeds. There is no more socialism in China than in Russia or in the USA.
          And I do not do any anti-Chinese propaganda. I have never said bad things about China or the Chinese. And he said nothing but the facts. I just said that China is actually a capitalist country. And you did not find a single fact or argument, just chatter and chatter.
          Quote: Odyssey
          In reality, if the leadership of the Communist Party is heading for capitalism, then they come to it very quickly (

          China came to him long ago, but the communists in Russia really do not want to admit it. They need the "Red China" myth to show that their ideas have some kind of future. But China has long spit on Marxism. It is ruled by nationalists who hide behind a red flag. And if you do not agree with me, then give facts, not general phrases. I gave the facts.
          1. Odysseus
            Odysseus 23 November 2013 00: 12
            0
            Quote: Sour
            I just said that China is actually a capitalist country. And you did not find a single fact or argument, just chatter and chatter.

            I wrote, this is wrong, as in the whole , and in trifles. I explain, in general, this means fundamental ideological issues which definepolitics and therefore what you call "facts".
            I cited 3 reasons - you did not answer with anything. Once again -
            1) You deny the theory of social formations - and yet you are trying to prove that the PRC is not a socialist country. Self-contradiction.
            2) You say that China refused socialism at a time when no one is going to do it. It turns out that communists can be both communists and capitalists in one bottle. Self-contradiction. With the same success, I can argue that Canada with its developed social security system is a socialist country.
            3) If you say that China is a country where there is no socialism, you should know what proper socialismYou do not demonstrate this, moreover, you deny the very concept of general formations.
            Sorry, you just have cereal in your head.
            As for your "facts", then you float in them the same way as in fundamental issues. Take, for example, pensions, - in the PRC, 55% are really covered by the pension system (by the way, not only civil servants, if you want to get acquainted with the problem, read here-http: //cnlegal.ru/china_social_security/pension_social_security_basics/).
            But the question is, what happened to the pensions under Mao? The answer is that they actually weren’t, the percentage of the population covered by pension provision (in cash) was scanty. Moreover, the mention of mandatory pension provision was removed in the 1975 constitution. So, following your logic, China under Mao should be recognized as an ultra-capitalist country. smile
        2. Sour
          Sour 22 November 2013 10: 09
          -1
          Quote: Odyssey
          just Sour so much that I was too lazy to paint all this

          Usually they say that when you want to object, but nothing.
          1. Odysseus
            Odysseus 23 November 2013 00: 18
            0
            Quote: Sour
            Usually they say that when you want to object, but nothing.

            No, that’s what they say when for example they see the statement that twice two is not four, but ten. It is simply impossible to take this seriously.
            PS By the way, regarding the DPRK, Cuba, you are just as mistaken as with respect to the PRC. But again, I am too lazy to paint all this and explain what kind of economy, ideology, etc.
      2. Sour
        Sour 22 November 2013 09: 31
        -1
        Quote: Sergg
        apparently people need illusions that a communist society is being built somewhere else.

        In fact of the matter.
        This society is still being built in the DPRK and in Cuba. Even Vietnam actually followed the capitalist path.
        But the DPRK and Cuba, with their performance, are a bad example to follow. So they are inventing about "Chinese communists" who took only one-party system from communism.
        And when these inventors face facts (like the Odyssey), then the answer is one verbiage.
        Although I admit that some of the so-called "communists" here in Russia are actually just supporters of the Chinese political model. They identify it with socialism. But then let them say so: "We are for a one-party system, not for social equality. This is what we like about China, where there is no more social equality than we have, but there is one and only party that calls itself communist. For us, the main thing is a sign, not an essence.". But they don’t want to say that.
  32. The comment was deleted.
    1. The comment was deleted.
  33. Vadim2013
    Vadim2013 21 November 2013 19: 19
    0
    The historical development of various countries of the world demonstrates that it is impossible for any state to jump from one formation to another without going through all stages of development.
    1. Sour
      Sour 21 November 2013 19: 30
      -1
      The theory of socio-economic formations is controversial enough, is not generally accepted, and does not answer many questions. Even in Soviet times, Soviet historians cautiously questioned this theory. It is impossible to draw a clear line between slavery and feudalism, and many historians say that there is no such line. In addition, the Marxist concept of "relations of production" is very difficult to apply to the realities of not only modernity, but also the ancient world. It is also impossible to clearly define the difference between socialism and capitalism. If anything, in Sweden or Germany social guarantees are many times higher than Chinese or Cuban ones, but no one calls Sweden and Germany socialist countries.
  34. waisson
    waisson 21 November 2013 19: 24
    0
    will not repeat they have fewer corrupt skins and drunks will copy the best and crap ... they can leave it
  35. karavay1982
    karavay1982 21 November 2013 23: 07
    0
    Yes, China repeats the fate of the USSR, with its own specifics - this is a population of more than 1 billion people.
    Chinese leaders have forgotten one thing - state-building is always irrigated with blood.
    Or their fellow citizens or strangers.
    China developed precisely because the workers were semi-slaves, and the peasants were exactly slaves.
    But they "relaxed" and forgot the precepts Mao was not afraid to bleed.
    But having a growing economy in China, nothing was done to improve the living standards of the population, and equalize the living standards of the coastal and mainland provinces.
    And if you recall the history of China, then this is the story of the warring provinces and rulers.
    And if the Chinese leadership will also look melancholy, then the author of the rights will slide all the way to the civil war and the collapse of China into separate provinces.
    They now have 2 choices - and both are associated with a decrease in population - either start a "cultural revolution" themselves or start a war for the benefit of enemies around there, and some of them can be easily defeated.
    But today's leaders, these are the same POLITBURO of the USSR of the 80s - everything seems to be fine, but the nation "relaxed.
    But others are not.
  36. Thunderbolt
    Thunderbolt 21 November 2013 23: 13
    +2
    November 21, "People's Daily" - The other day a photograph was published on which the sailors of the Liaoning aircraft carrier laid out the hieroglyphs "Chinese dream, dream of a powerful army."
  37. Stinger
    Stinger 21 November 2013 23: 24
    +3
    It's too early to sing a requiem in China. They know how to work. At the very least, but the latest technologies have been dragged to ourselves, modern production has been established. Unlike us. It's time to think about domestic consumption.
    1. Sour
      Sour 22 November 2013 14: 57
      -2
      Quote: Stinger
      It's too early to sing a requiem in China.

      No one sings a requiem for them.
      China has a future. And their considerable economic successes are based on the fact that they abandoned in time the ravings of Marxism and the lying communist dogmas. They began to build their economy on normal principles, and communist phraseology was left as a souvenir to calm the local cattle. There is no communism in China for a long time. And precisely because of this, they have economic success.
  38. Bersaglieri
    Bersaglieri 22 November 2013 00: 18
    +2
    Quote: atalef
    Quote: knn54
    That's right! Since the time of N. Khrushchev, the very idea of ​​socialism has been discredited

    What are the countries where it has remained true? where a citizen is the master of his country, where relative equality and prosperity

    Sweden, Iceland, Norway, Finland ...
    1. Thunderbolt
      Thunderbolt 22 November 2013 00: 48
      0
      Quote: Bersaglieri
      Shweйцарand I
      These are the mysterious mountaineers from the foggy skies of Europe. And the Pope is under house arrest and the best timepieces in the world.
  39. garik77
    garik77 22 November 2013 01: 53
    0
    it is a pity that only some advanced individuals learn from the mistakes of others, and all the others learn from their mistakes. However, there is hope that the Chinese have thoroughly studied the experience of our KATA building and will not repeat it, but those who wish to do so will be sentenced to the highest degree of social protection.
  40. Stasi
    Stasi 24 November 2013 13: 48
    0
    In the USSR, the theory of convergence, that is, the union of the Soviet and Western political and economic systems, was once very popular. This convergence was actively promoted and embodied under Andropov, and subsequently it was followed by Tagged. Judging by the article, China also, in its version, is converging with the West, mainly with the United States. In fact, the West did not intend to carry out any convergence; this tale was intended for the elite that sold itself. China is waiting for the same. True, the Chinese hope to replay the West, but I’m not sure that they will succeed, the West ate the dog on intrigues. The Chinese, of course, are not simpletons either. In general, let’s see who will leave someone in the cold: the Westerners of China or the Westerners of the Chinese.