In China, social tension is growing, due to the deterioration of the economic situation of the country as a result of internal system errors and the global crisis. Against this background, the plenum of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) adopted a “road map” (action plan), defining how the next — fifth — stage of the reform in the Middle Kingdom will take place. Signs that the PRC may become a victim of “perestroika” are becoming ever clearer, and the explosion of the “Chinese factory” will cause the next wave of the global crisis.
The 3 th plenum of the CPC Central Committee of the 18 th convocation adopted a plan from the 60 points, which in fact leads to the liberalization of China. The key points of the roadmap are:
- reduction of government intervention in the allocation of resources;
- access of private enterprises to a number of industries will be allowed and expanded;
- local administrations will receive the right to issue bonds;
- private capital gets the right to create small and medium-sized banks, other financial structures;
- By 2020, Chinese enterprises will return 30% profits to the treasury against the current 15%, these funds will be used to increase the welfare of citizens and improve the quality of life;
- there will be a softening of state control over tariffs for water, energy and fuel;
- peasants will receive the right of pledge and sale of land, which in China belongs to the state;
- restrictions on internal migration will be gradually lifted;
- management systems and a working mechanism for fighting corruption will be improved;
- Reforms and construction of relevant institutions and mechanisms to combat formalism, bureaucracy, waste and hedonism will be carried out;
- The course for the liberalization of criminal law. In particular, labor re-education camps that have been operating in the country since 1957 will be eliminated. Until recently, over 300 labor camps operated in China, and 260, thousands of people, were serving their sentences in them. There citizens could be placed without a court decision for up to four years. As part of liberalization, the system of “rectification through labor” will be abolished, the list of crimes punishable by the death penalty will be reduced, work will be continued to prevent wrongful judicial decisions, confessions obtained under torture and physical abuse, and ill-treatment. In general, China is heading for a policy of protecting human rights;
- The People's Republic of China will start implementing the new policy in the sphere of planned childbirth, the policy of “one family - one child” will be relaxed. For the first time since the beginning of the 1970s, Chinese families will be allowed to have two children, if one of the parents was the only child in the family;
- optimization of the size and structure of the PRC armed forces will be carried out, the number of non-combat institutions and the number of PLA will be reduced. It is planned to accelerate the formation of a new type of combat forces;
- Xi Jinping also informed about the crucial role of the market in the allocation of resources, the deepening reform of the financial and tax system, the establishment of the State Security Council and the creation of the Central Steering Group on the comprehensive deepening of reforms.
The main goal of the program is the separation of government and market (with changes in government functions), creating favorable conditions for the development of market relations. It is planned that the current “road map” will determine the development of the People’s Republic of China by 10 years. A prerequisite for the adoption of this program was the slowdown in the PRC economy in recent years due to an overabundance of production capacity, debt problems and a loss of competitiveness (in particular, Chinese workers have become more expensive than in neighboring countries of Southeast Asia). The Secretary General of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China Xi Jinping and Premier of the State Council of China Li Keqiang, who came to power a year ago, personify the new course.
It is very alarming that Western experts enthusiastically welcome the results of the plenum of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party. Economists at Goldman Sachs state: "The plan showed commitment to reform and increased target indicators." “It is necessary to recognize that this is the most impressive statement about reforms that we have seen in this century,” experts of Capital Economy are delighted. I remember that in the West at one time they admired and rejoiced at the reforms that Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin were pursuing. However, “perestroika” and “shock therapy”, according to their results, have become worse for Russia than the invasion of the Hitlerite hordes.
There are other indirect signs that China is on a disastrous path. So, 14 in Shanghai in November, the Institute for the Study of the Quality of Welfare at the Research Institute of the Chinese Luxury Goods Market published a “Report on Luxury Items in China”. It reports that in 2013, the total amount of luxury goods consumption in China reached the sum of 102 billion US dollars, in the same year the figure of the whole world set a record - 218 billion dollars. Thus, the Chinese have bought almost half of the luxury goods of the world, and China has become the largest buyer in the world market for luxury goods. 19 November has come newsthat China ranked second after the United States in the number of billionaires in the state. In China, there are 157 billionaires, and this is excluding 75 billionaires from Hong Kong.
China has changed a lot in recent years. Appeared base for large-scale social protests. The Chinese middle class already accounts for the most of the population of the Russian Federation, the average salary has grown. However, against the background of the masses of the poor peasantry, this class is rather small. Therefore, by hook or by crook, peasants are trying to get into the cities. The number of protests has grown. Today, the authorities are no longer hesitating to use military force against numerous rallies of citizens across the country. They prefer to convince them of the need for the current course of “deepening reforms”, advertising the many achievements of the PRC under the leadership of the CPC. And the achievements are really impressive. However, they appeared due to the fact that China has become a "global factory." The global crisis makes this “factory” unnecessary. Beijing tried to maintain acceptable growth at the expense of huge public investments in infrastructure and industrial projects, which either pay off only in the future or are generally questionable. In addition, Beijing’s large-scale efforts to increase domestic consumption in order to reorient the economy from export to domestic demand take time, and it simply does not seem to be there. China was late with the development of the domestic market. And it is impossible to raise the standards of consumption of more than a billion people to the American-European level. The second "golden billion" planet simply will not pull. The presence of the "first golden billion" and caused a global systemic crisis.
However, ordinary people can not explain it. Chinese citizens have become accustomed to the constant growth of wages and living standards. They are not ready to "tighten their belts." The crisis in the Chinese economy will automatically cause a powerful wave of social protest. The younger generation began to feel more free. In addition, it is Westernized, spoiled by the attention of the family: it’s not for nothing that the only sons are called “little emperors” (one of the negative consequences of the “one family - one child” policy). They are used to indulging everyone, they fulfill their whims. Highly explosive material! In social networks openly discuss the development of China. There are nationalists of all stripes, traditionalists, supporters of the restoration of classical socialism, social justice and neo-Maoists. There are supporters of liberalism, who believe that it is time to gradually abandon the Marxist ideology and move on to a different path of development, follow the path of liberal reforms, and begin mass privatization. The majority of the middle class is indifferent to ideology, they do not oppose the CCP, as it helps to ensure stability and a rapid increase in wealth. It is known that social protest often arises not when the standard of living is low, but when it rises rapidly, but people's expectations grow even faster. One of the most acute problems of Chinese society is ahead of the growth of expectations of consumption growth.
In recent years, a new generation of workers has become noticeable. They also actively use the Internet, they are aware of the situation of workers in other countries. During the crisis, they established contacts with the “new left” from the intellectual environment. The “new leftists” are supporters of Mao Zedong's covenants and subject modern capitalist China to harsh criticism. Obviously, with the development of the global crisis, the positions of the “new leftists” who have support in the intelligentsia and the working class will be strengthened. The threat from the separatists will also increase. Xinjiang Uygur region reminds itself more and more. 18 November came the news of the attack 9 gangsters with cold weapons to the police station in the town of Serikbuya, Bachu County. Two people were killed, two policemen were injured.
It is clear that now “perestroika” and a serious weakening of China or even collapse into autonomous provinces, the civil war in Xinjiang and between the rich coastal provinces and poor mainland areas seems like a fantastic movie script. In 2007, China’s economy became the third largest in the world in terms of GDP, overtaking Germany. In 2010, China became the second largest economy after the United States, overtaking Japan.
Some experts believe that in a few years the PRC economy can overtake the USA, becoming the leader of the world economy. At present, China is the first exporter of industrial products, and has the largest gold reserves. But in 1984, the USSR also seemed indestructible to titanium, but that did not save it. It took only a few years for the Soviet Union to collapse.
China faces serious problems: overcrowding, lack of energy resources, poor environmental conditions. In addition, the prevailing economic model of the People's Republic of China is a model of the periphery, where the low cost of goods sold for sale was supported by cheap labor. Beijing has serious problems with finances, despite seeming well-being. For a long time, considerable foreign exchange earnings were invested not in the development of the national economy of the PRC, but in the “financial bubble” of the United States. China brought the United States a double benefit: first produced cheap goods for America, and then invested the proceeds in the US market. And the success of the industrialization of the PRC was determined by the capacity not of the domestic, but of the world, mainly American, market. Now the United States is pursuing rapid industrialization. As a result, the United States first created the “Chinese miracle”, and now it can be buried together with China. Due to the global crisis, up to 40% of the capacity of Chinese industry was not loaded. The Chinese economic model is in deep crisis.
Summing up, I must say that, apparently, the CCP top, following the "great teachings of Deng Xiaoping" (developed the principle of "socialism with Chinese characteristics"), has already passed the stage of transformation into a party bourgeoisie, quite pleased with its consumer status. Some party leaders already live as millionaires. According to social studies, up to 80% of the Chinese bourgeoisie consists of direct blood relatives of high-ranking party officials. Party and business elite form a single whole. Therefore, attempts to raise wages and increase domestic demand face direct sabotage. The following scenario is obvious. We have already passed it in Russia.