Military Review

"Whether in Somalia, or in Afghanistan." The expert spoke about the consequences of the war in Libya and the reasons for the collapse of the country.

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"Whether in Somalia, or in Afghanistan." The expert spoke about the consequences of the war in Libya and the reasons for the collapse of the country.“Libya cannot live in constant danger - oil production is declining, followed by income. Therefore, it is necessary to achieve security, and, as all Arab newspapers write, if the authorities fail to disarm all the numerous armed detachments, the country will disintegrate further, ”diplomat Veniamin Popov told VZGLYAD newspaper. So he commented on the latest news from Libya, where the central authorities are trying to expel the militants from Tripoli.


As a result of violent clashes, units of the national army of Libya on the eve began to take up positions on the streets of the capital Tripoli. The city includes armored vehicles of the regular armed forces, the newspaper VIEW. At the same time, the authorities demanded that all militants leave the capital within 72 hours.

The Russian Foreign Ministry called Tripoli on Monday to take measures to restore order in the country, and recommended that the Russians refrain from traveling to Libya. Moscow "calls on the Libyan authorities to take all necessary measures to restore law and order and legality in the capital and other parts of Libya." “This also implies the restoration of an effective state apparatus, law enforcement agencies, as well as the speedy reintegration into the peaceful life of former insurgents,” the ministry added.

Recall that the situation in the Libyan capital became sharply aggravated on November 15, when ex-revolutionaries from Misurata shot demonstrators in the Gargur region. Later, on Saturday, militants from Misurata seized a military base near Tripoli, looted military depots and took everything that was there. weapon in Misurata. Tripoli declared a state of emergency. Meanwhile, the deputy head of the Libyan intelligence service, Mustafa Noah, who was kidnapped on the eve, was released on Monday.

However, good ones came from Libya on Monday news - after an almost two-week break, it resumed gas exports to Italy via the Green Stream gas pipeline. The gas pipeline was inactive due to disagreements between the government and the leaders of the Berber tribes. The latter demanded the expansion of their political rights. At the same time, the Berbers seized a number of gas terminal production facilities in Mellitte, which led to the termination of exports through the Green Stream.

How many militants will actually leave Tripoli in 72 hours and what is the probability of a complete collapse of the country and the second civil war in general, the former Russian ambassador to Libya, foreign relations director of the Islamic Culture Support Fund Veniamin Popov told the newspaper VIEW.

VIEW: Veniamin Viktorovich, the central authorities of Libya gave the armed groups three days to leave Tripoli. Will the militants submit to the authorities?

Veniamin Popov: One can only guess. In a country where there were a lot of weapons, these weapons were seized by tribes and separate groups, and now they are trying to dictate their conditions to the central government. The authorities failed to properly create an army and police, so now it is difficult to say what will happen next. Those who started these skirmishes, the so-called Misurata militia, started them because their commander was killed.

This event led to such a huge number of victims, about fifty people were killed and more than four hundred injured. In one of the areas of Tripoli, there was a real massacre. Misrarat rebels say they will leave Tripoli during 72 hours, but at the same time they promise to withdraw all their representatives in the High People’s Council and in the government. I call it the "half-life."

A few days earlier, Cyrenaica announced that it intended to create its own national company, and there are main fields there. Before that, a statement was made by the Fezzan authorities that they were creating their own army. This is a “half-life” because central authority still exists nominally.

Libya cannot live in constant danger - oil production is declining, followed by income. Therefore, it is necessary to achieve security, and, as all Arab newspapers write, if the authorities fail to disarm all the numerous armed groups, the country will fall apart.

VIEW: Livia turns into a second Somalia? Is there any way to stop the disintegration of its territory into separate clan sections?

VP: Only the lazy one did not write that Libya is turning either into Somalia or into Afghanistan, where the warlords practically determine the life of the people. This is all a consequence of the NATO bombing, Libya has existed since 1951 as a single state, it was so under the king, it was so under Gadhafi. Now came the militants, and what happened to the country?

Two years have passed, and they still cannot provide order. In addition to Libya itself, the neighboring state of Mali was split into almost two parts. A direct consequence of these same actions was also the creation of a hotbed of tension from Algeria to Somalia. It spreads like a disease, which countries it still covers, I do not know.

Politicians had to not only lead, but think about the results of their actions, try to anticipate possible developments. The blame for the events lies largely in England and France.

Now the Americans are trying to find out who killed their ambassador and other diplomats, offering ten million for information and still cannot find anything. More than a year has passed. The military invasion in our time does not lead to good, in the twenty-first century it is impossible to act by the methods of the nineteenth.

VIEW: Are the forces of the national army and various field commanders comparable? Including the number and armament.

VP: The “Misurata militia” has heavy weapons, an arsenal that belonged to the troops of Colonel Gaddafi. It is not by chance that Lebanese weapons are still found in Syria, where they are used by “oppositionists”. Now it is not known who is stronger there at all.

The central government would have long since expelled the militants who are locally in Libya if they had the opportunity. And if in Benghazi they create their own oil company, then it is quite logical that they will refuse to provide for Tripoli. Why do they need this central authority? All these are serious steps to the final collapse. Many Libyans fled from the war abroad to neighboring countries, so we can say that the real army does not exist.

VIEW: Does the Libyan authorities have any opportunity to prevent energy collapse? Is full-scale conflict possible between Berbers controlling the Libyan fields and the national army?

VP: Berbers are different tribes, they have a different ethnic community. Now I would not use such words as “collapse”, no one wants to completely stop the extraction of oil, they just want to appropriate part of the profit to themselves. This is a dangerous path, another path leading to the collapse of the country.

For two years, Cyrenaica did not agree with Tripoli, an attack was committed on the Russian embassy, ​​and militants kidnapped the Libyan prime minister. How can this be? The central government has no levers of pressure on the separatists. Tribes are much stronger, at least they have their own well-armed combat formations. What will happen next is hard to say. Many offer to hold new elections in order to create a new, more active and efficient government.

VIEW: Was it possible to prevent all this? Was a compromise between Gaddafi and the rebels in 2011 possible, for example? Why the West did not push the rebels to national reconciliation?

VP: At first there were a lot of attempts to reach an agreement. A lot of people, including those from Arab countries, attempted to mediate between the rebels and the government of Gaddafi. These were both special representatives, for example from Jordan, and other missions that made certain efforts, for example, representatives of the African Union. There were also Europeans who personally knew Gaddafi. I think that the West, and above all England and France, considered Muammar Gaddafi to be a very inconvenient partner, who threatened many revelations and other troubles. For them, the decision to remove it was quite acceptable.

When Tanks Gaddafi was approaching Benghazi, NATO planes bombed these columns, apparently, just before that, Gaddafi wanted to try to negotiate with the rebels. He offered them their own areas and so on, but most likely, the Western countries did not want this.

They considered Libya a good prize, a unique country. Firstly, because of the unique, practically sulfur-free oil, which does not need to be refined. Secondly, there are good lands and the richest crops in the Middle East. Third - almost two thousand kilometers of the Mediterranean Sea. That is, the development prospects were very good, given the ancient historical Monuments inside the country. Libya was a wonderful trophy.
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  1. Stiletto
    Stiletto 21 November 2013 16: 36
    10
    "Now the Americans are trying to find out who killed their ambassador and other diplomats, they offer ten million for information, and they still cannot find anything."

    Hm. Ten millions?! Need to think. In the evening I’ll talk with my wife, in the morning I’ll go to give up ... fellow
  2. Grandson of Veteran
    Grandson of Veteran 21 November 2013 16: 37
    +8
    "They considered Libya a good prize, a unique country. Firstly, because of the unique oil, practically devoid of sulfur, which does not need to be refined. Secondly, there are good lands and the richest harvests in the Middle East. Third, almost two thousand kilometers Mediterranean Sea "
    The most interesting thing is that even people who are absolutely far from politics understand this. And the "crap-makers" persistently continue to scream about universal values ​​and concern for human rights. Lies .......! Think for yourself instead of ellipsis!
    1. Siberian German
      Siberian German 22 November 2013 04: 11
      +1
      I’m risking writing - Pida-Gas, did you mean
  3. Ivanovich47
    Ivanovich47 21 November 2013 16: 43
    +6
    Libya has become a bitter rebuke to the West. Hiding behind "democratic" demagoguery, guided by purely personal, selfish interests, England and France created chaos in a country gradually going to collapse. Calling NATO’s conscience is useless ..
    1. timer
      timer 21 November 2013 23: 37
      +2
      NATO is an aggressive military club, first of all the American government, and those who stand behind this government. What kind of conscience you write about, like small children, right. With this club, world shit-democrats destroy independent countries that do not want to go under them . These are real criminals and world-eaters (I mean the USA, England, France).
    2. Gooch v. 2
      Gooch v. 2 22 November 2013 05: 39
      +1
      Quote: Ivanovich47
      created chaos in a country gradually going to collapse. Calling NATO’s conscience is useless ..

      Go to Facebook at least for personal interest, before breeding demagoguery, for those in the tank, a photo of "Collapsing" and "Suffering" Libya after the war.






      It’s all in the palm of your hand, you can look at the personal photos of the average Libyan, add him as a friend, speak English (if you speak English), I talked with the peasant who is in the last photo, his name is Ibrahim Tauri, he works as a construction superintendent, pay attention to the car at which he travels, does not complain about life, didn’t hear anything about the collapsing Libya and the country's suffering without Gaddafi, his life goes on, work, family, children, what are you talking about demagogy here? how to know the author of the article sitting in some sort of Zazh.pinsk about what is happening in Libya?
    3. Gooch v. 2
      Gooch v. 2 22 November 2013 05: 40
      +1
      "Downtrodden", disenfranchised Arab women, in burqa, under the bloody dictatorship of the "Libyan Opposition"



      The opposition has not yet eaten all the children, ay yay yay



      With the advent of new power, the opposition issued a new fatwa - to beat all women who do not wear a burqa, and then eat, it was better with Gaddafi!

  4. makarov
    makarov 21 November 2013 16: 59
    +4
    "..Now the Americans are trying to find out who killed their ambassador and other diplomats, they offer ten million for information and still cannot find anything .."

    Who killed - I do not know.
    But I’ll name the customer, this is the son of a bitch Sarkozy.
    I don’t need money from America, please see the editorial board of VO in favor of it.
  5. Russian officer
    Russian officer 21 November 2013 17: 09
    +7
    It seems to me that many Libyans are now reveling in bitter tears when they remember Muammar Gaddafi. And the life that was in his time. To be honest, it hurts to read and watch materials like this. Especially knowing what country was before "democracy" and what kind of "democratic" it became. Let's take a real look at things - the word "regime" is why they always appeal in the West. Especially when the leader of the country ceases to suit them. So in Russia they have a Putin regime. And there was also the communist regime. Those. precisely those times in Russia when she represented and is a threat to the West and their w ... lises.
    And after all, at least s.s in the eyes, all God's dew. Everywhere they blow that the operation in Libya is a great success. How false tv..i!
    So who should be judged in The Hague is all sorts of bushes, sarkozy, blair.
    1. R'RёS,R ° F "RёR№
      R'RёS,R ° F "RёR№ 21 November 2013 19: 36
      +3
      I have a brother, a sailor, worked in the Mediterranean, so he said. That all Russians SHOWED the Libyans to the sailors. In terms of remuneration, and social obligations. And it was about fifteen years ago. Now there’s nothing to envy ...
    2. R'RёS,R ° F "RёR№
      R'RёS,R ° F "RёR№ 21 November 2013 19: 37
      +1
      And as for the Hague, well, they will not judge themselves ?!
  6. Chicot 1
    Chicot 1 21 November 2013 17: 12
    +4
    The fact that Libya would follow the "Somali scenario" was clear even in the first days after the "rebels" came to power ...
    The late colonel managed to hold the country with a firm hand. The current rulers have neither the mind nor the strength to do this ... Yes, and the plan of their Western benefactors and sponsors, unified Libya, is most likely not included ...
    So there is enough mess there for a few more years, if not decades. And there, not far from the civil war ...
    1. EdwardTich68
      EdwardTich68 21 November 2013 17: 32
      +1
      The current rulers have neither mind nor power for this[b And there is not far from the civil war.
      Their current rulers and arranged, continuing the current civil war
  7. zhihaar
    zhihaar 21 November 2013 17: 23
    +5
    this is a tough version of what happened in Russia in the 90s
  8. EdwardTich68
    EdwardTich68 21 November 2013 17: 25
    +8
    Do not feel sorry for them, democracy is expensive, if you want, get, get, sign. In Syria, you didn’t want, you don’t. laughing
    1. rus9875
      rus9875 21 November 2013 21: 30
      +4
      Syria is lucky that in Russia now Putin and not Medvedev Well, Libya, respectively, on the contrary
  9. MIKHAN
    MIKHAN 21 November 2013 18: 07
    +7
    The more house the higher the profit !!! Divide and rule!!! "To whom the war and to whom the mother is dear .. !!!
    The more monstrous the lie, the more they will believe it !! Now such slogans are being implemented in most countries! In the USSR, the slogan was on the Coat of Arms (remember I hope ..) PROLETARIANS OF ALL COUNTRIES UNITE !!! It's time to take it out to wash it from dust and spits .. Otherwise, everyone will have a kirdyk .. I’m thinking like that! "A petrel soars proudly over the waves ... The storm is about to break ...!" Just don’t laugh, I sincerely wrote it just my soul hurts ..
  10. major071
    major071 21 November 2013 18: 52
    +9
    Sarkozy did not want to repay Gaddafi's multimillion-dollar debt, and here is the result. There is no country as an integral state, Sarkozy is satisfied, and the fate of the people of Libya does not bother anyone. And indeed, when the West was interested in the fate of the people to whom they brought democracy on the wings of their missiles. fool
  11. individual
    individual 21 November 2013 19: 04
    +2
    Somalia, Libya, Mali, Afghanistan, Syria - this is where the plowed field of activity of the UN and its international structures on organization of the normal existence of local nations.
    But the UN leadership shares $, €, $ and other assets, and they do not care for THE UNITED STATES.
  12. propolsky
    propolsky 21 November 2013 21: 04
    +6
    It was a normal country, the hotels were tidy, the food was right, they walked the streets day and night, there was light all around, well, it’s a bit dirty in the African way, but it didn’t strike my eyes, it is cheap, the dispatcher is tidy, and now ... Look for a new colonel !
  13. Kulneff2009
    Kulneff2009 21 November 2013 22: 25
    +3
    Gaddafi removed, got democracy!
  14. alone
    alone 21 November 2013 23: 30
    +2
    what they wanted, they got it. they don’t wave their fists after the fight.
  15. Plato
    Plato 22 November 2013 10: 00
    +3
    Oil and gas from Libya will pump any power in the fields. The greater the fragmentation, the more favorable the price. Well, the fact that there are quite expected problems and problems, they can not affect the flow of hydrocarbons.
    Well, some tribe will refuse to supply oil at a low price. You can always find a tribe that will increase production. If where and damage equipment or pipe. So for the time of repair you can always drive a couple of tankers from the Persian Gulf.
    After a relatively short time, either the stubborn head of the tribe or the local government will be killed by killers or their own conspirators, who want to eat sweetly. Or they simply agree, since those who do not give oil do not receive money.
    That's all for a short time !!!
    In oil-producing countries, the order is relative, or it can be called in another way "controlled chaos" will be only in the areas of production and on the pipelines. The West does not need a strong central authority.
    Therefore, Mr. Putin and his associates should think about their liberal course, which in an explicit and implicit form destroys the power of power, destroys the sovereignty of the state, and undermines the country's economy.