Military Review

Can Saudi Arabia get a nuclear bomb from Pakistan?

19

Recent reports that Pakistan is allegedly ready to transfer nuclear weapon Saudi Arabia, so did not scare anyone. Nobody just believed in them. In addition, the Pakistani government immediately denied the information transmitted by the BBC. However, this история - another reason to think about what is happening now in the Middle East and South Asia.


Saudi Games

Conversations that Pakistan can transfer nuclear weapons to the “oil kingdom” from time to time arise and disappear just as well - until the next escalation of Saudi-Iranian rivalry. For example, in 2009, King Abdullah threatened that the kingdom would have nuclear weapons - if “Iran crosses the line”. The line, obviously, should be understood as the successful development of the Iranian nuclear program until Tehran has an atomic bomb.

The current situation for Riyadh is very worrying. On November 9, CNN, citing a high-ranking government official from Washington, reported that the United States and other countries are close to concluding a preliminary agreement with Iran on the Iranian nuclear program. It is expected that Tehran will suspend all actions within the framework of this program for six months - in exchange for the temporary cancellation of a number of Western sanctions. It is clear that any deal with Iran will be the strongest blow to Saudi Arabia, which for many years has funded the Pakistani nuclear program, wishing to create a counterweight to its main geopolitical rival. And even a hint of a possible warming in relations between Tehran and Washington in Riyadh is perceived with hostility. And the Saudis are ready to do everything possible to, if not disrupt the negotiations, then at least complicate them as much as possible. One way to achieve this is to convince Americans that rapprochement with Iran will inevitably lead to the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Middle East.

Imagine that the Pakistani leadership, having forgotten about all their problems, will rush to transfer nuclear weapons to Saudi Arabia, is extremely difficult. There are several reasons for this. The charge of transferring an atomic bomb is an unpleasant thing in itself and fraught with consequences, but in this case we are talking about two very specific countries. On the one hand, they are the official allies of the United States in the war on terrorism. And on the other - almost the main supporting bases of the very terrorists with whom the war is going.

The Americans are already accusing some high-ranking representatives of the Pakistani army and special services of sympathizing and even direct support of the militants, and one can only imagine what will begin, think of the Pakistanis to transfer nuclear weapons to another problem country. We must not forget about Iran. Islamabad does not need problems with a strong neighbor, which, if desired, can create a serious headache.

Unmanned war

For some time, most of the reports from Pakistan are related to the strikes of American drone drone aircraft, which tirelessly prey on militants in the Tribal Zone near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. One of the latest successes of an unmanned war is the liquidation of Pakistani Taliban leader Khakimullah Mehsud in early November. It should also be recalled that several months ago the field commander Vali ur-Rahman, like Mehsud, who belonged to the Tehrik-e-Taliban grouping, was destroyed by an air strike.

According to field commanders they are firing not only from the air. A few days ago, in a suburb of Islamabad, a killer on a motorcycle shot Nasiruddin Haqqani, a financier and one of the leaders of the influential Haqqani clan, known since the war against Soviet troops in Afghanistan. It is believed that the sweep of the militant leaders is carried out on the eve of 2014, when the coalition troops must leave Afghanistan. The calculation is made by the fact that, having beaten commanders, the Americans will decapitate the Taliban on both sides of the border, and those left without financiers and coordinators will no longer be a danger to the regime in Kabul.

In principle, the elimination of militants of this level could allow the Pakistani leadership to take control of the tribal area and end up in a stateless area of ​​powerlessness. But in reality this will not happen. After all, the activity of American UAVs causes discontent among ordinary citizens, who view it as a gross violation of the sovereignty of the country, as well as many representatives of the political and military establishment sympathizing with the Taliban.

After the liquidation of Mehsud, public opinion in Pakistan split. Some believe that by destroying the leader of Tehreek-i-Taliban, the Americans thwarted the negotiations of the country's leadership with the Taliban, once again rudely intervened in the internal affairs of Pakistan. After all, not so long ago, Prime Minister Navaz Sharif allegedly mentioned that negotiations had begun, although representatives of Tehreek-i-Taliban claim that there were no contacts with representatives of the government.

According to another point of view, the Pakistani leadership, speaking verbally for a ban on the use of American drones, in fact supports air strikes. About this in late October, with reference to leaks from the CIA wrote the American Washington Post. The subject of the article was the visit of the Pakistani Prime Minister to the United States, which in Islamabad was called a failure (during a meeting with Barack Obama on October 23, Nawaz Sharif did not even manage to raise the topic of drones).

Domestic Coordination in Pakistan

In any case, Pakistan, to put it mildly, remains a not very stable country with an economy balancing on the verge of complete bankruptcy. Even the fact that the ruling party - the Pakistan Muslim League - traditionally protects business interests, does not save the situation, and the current prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, is known as a supporter of the liberal economic model. In conditions when a part of the country's territory is controlled by the Taliban, who have influential patrons in power structures, one should not count on the economic revival of Pakistan.

Do not add optimism and the realities of domestic political life. The official policy of the Pakistan Muslim League towards the Taliban has always been rather amorphous and boiled down to periodic statements about the need for negotiations. Much more radical program of the main political rival of the party Nawaz Sharif - "Justice Movement" ("Tehrik-e-Insaf"). His representatives insist on the need for dialogue with the Taliban and the banning of flights of American UAVs. Most likely, the rivalry between the two parties will only escalate: after all, the Pakistan Muslim League will continue to pursue a cautious pro-American policy, and the Movement for Justice, in all likelihood, will rely on popular discontent.

Tehrik-e-Insaf is the ruling party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (the former North-West Frontier Province with the administrative center in the city of Peshawar). This region is predominantly populated by Pashtuns, many of whom are opposed to central government. By the way, the Minister of Justice of this province, Israrullah Gandapur, who died during the 16 terrorist attack in October, also belonged to the “Justice Movement” (the Minister received guests at his house on the occasion of Kurban Bayram when a suicide bomber launched a bomb).

It is worth noting that problems with militants have recently been characteristic not only of the north and west of Pakistan. There is also unrest in the southern port city of Karachi, the economic capital of the country. The positions of the ruling here Sindh Party Muttahida Qaumi (United National Movement) seriously shaken after the parliamentary elections of 11 in May. The victory of the Pakistan Muslim League meant that the Sindhi could no longer control the economy of more than 20-million port city, including its shadow part. Therefore, it is clear that immediately after the election, disgruntled supporters of Muttahida Qaumi opened fire on political opponents, and the leader of the movement in emigration, in an interview with Pakistani television, threatened acts of violence to anyone who would offend his party.

... In general, it should be recognized that the internal political situation in Pakistan is such that Saudi Arabia has nothing to rely on: it will not receive the atomic bomb. Not to the bomb now Islamabad. So the oil kingdom makes sense to look for new friends - for example, to build bridges with Israel, whose interests in the Middle East largely coincide with the interests of the Saudis. This is the latest headline in the Sunday Times from 17 November: "Saudi Arabia and Israel are developing plans to attack Iran." It sounds though unconvincing, but beautiful.
Author:
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http://www.odnako.org/
19 comments
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  1. makarov
    makarov 23 November 2013 08: 04
    +8
    "Recent reports that Pakistan is allegedly ready to transfer nuclear weapons to Saudi Arabia did not frighten anyone ..."

    The author should have called things in his own words, namely, the word "MESSAGE" should be replaced with the really correct word "RUMORS".
    And rumors are not worth commenting on. one water ...
    1. Ihrek
      Ihrek 23 November 2013 08: 38
      +9
      There is no smoke without fire. You can expect anything. The Saudis are very angry after after the failure of hopes for Syria.
      1. knn54
        knn54 23 November 2013 16: 49
        +4
        Jamal: there is no smoke without fire.
        Pakistan is responsible for Pakistan’s nuclear program, which has transferred technology to Islamabad. Beijing will not sit idly by. But with the strong desire of the SA, given the venality of officials, they can buy ... at least in the same France.
      2. timer
        timer 24 November 2013 14: 20
        0
        What is not done to annoy Iran - and rumors, and embargoes, etc. Or maybe we’ll call the aliens, but they know how, to all the Saudis, the Jews, etc. plug the throat or turn off the head, so that Iran could not live and develop!
  2. Ingvar 72
    Ingvar 72 23 November 2013 08: 05
    +3
    Personally, I believe that the author is right, all these are horror stories invented in order to intimidate the public, and cause general condemnation of Iran in its desire to obtain nuclear weapons. Like, open the Pandora's box. Nonsense, it has long been open. They are simply afraid that in the presence of nuclear weapons they will have to reckon with Iran.
    1. Yuri Y.
      Yuri Y. 23 November 2013 08: 08
      +3
      In any case, Pakistan, to put it mildly, remains a not very stable country with an economy balancing on the verge of complete bankruptcy.

      And why not count in such a situation. They will pay and will not stand up for the price, since the United States wanted to buy for an attack on Syria. If only America will block somewhere.
    2. atalef
      atalef 23 November 2013 09: 32
      +1
      Quote: Ingvar 72
      Personally, I believe that the author is right, all these are horror stories invented in order to intimidate the public,

      Well, nobody knows the truth, except for the Saudis and Pakistan.
      Further, nuclear weapons in Pakistan are in the hands of the army, and this in a country like Pakistan is much more reliable than the regime in power
      And how Abdul Khan traded components of the program, development and technology (S. Korea bought them and Iran did the same and Libya at the time)
      So one should not exclude about the agreement with the Saudis on the bomb. (In the case of Iran) I am even inclined to believe this more.

      Quote: Ingvar 72
      and cause general condemnation of Iran in its desire to obtain nuclear weapons.

      You don’t understand, there’s no time for censure - Nuclear Iran is a mortal danger for Saudi Arabia - and censure and husbands do not give a damn about it

      Quote: Ingvar 72
      They are simply afraid that in the presence of nuclear weapons they will have to reckon with Iran.

      If Iran gets nuclear weapons --- in 15 years there will be so many states in the region that it will have to be reckoned with that the war will come much earlier than many people think about it.
      1. ayyildiz
        ayyildiz 23 November 2013 13: 42
        +1
        Quote: atalef
        Nuclear Iran is mortal danger to Saudi Arabia


        Danger for everyone in the region! And not just for CA! hi
        1. atalef
          atalef 23 November 2013 13: 57
          +3
          Quote: ayyildiz
          Danger for everyone in the region! And not just for CA!

          Not for everyone. I think Lebanon, Syria and Yemen - on the drum.
          1. duke
            duke 23 November 2013 14: 23
            +5
            maybe, but you forgot about Turkey, if the Saudis get the A-bomb, the Turks will find a way to get it too. Do not forget that in the Sunni world there is a struggle for primacy between KSA and Turkey ... because some are building the Caliphate, while others are building Osmania-2 and the Turks will never fall under the Saudis, because consider Saudi - the pashalyk of his sultanate.
          2. ayyildiz
            ayyildiz 23 November 2013 16: 13
            +1
            Quote: atalef
            Not for everyone. I think Lebanon, Syria and Yemen - on the drum.


            Today, yes, but in the future it will not be for the drum too!
    3. duke
      duke 24 November 2013 20: 11
      0
      dear friend, pay attention to how Egypt reacted to Erdogan’s statements, they even showed it on our TV ... so that the possibilities of the Russian Federation are increasing dramatically, the main thing is to use them wisely, no?
  3. Denis
    Denis 23 November 2013 08: 44
    +2
    We must not forget about Iran. Islamabad does not need problems with a strong neighbor, who, if desired, can create him a serious headache.
    Moreover, they have no friction with Iran, where are the Saudis, and Iran is closer
    And the bomb is not a cigarette to treat your neighbor
    As Mao did not ask at one time, Stalin did not give, though friends
    1. alone
      alone 23 November 2013 12: 19
      +5
      Quote: Denis
      Moreover, they have no friction with Iran, where are the Saudis, and Iran is closer
      And the bomb is not a cigarette to treat your neighbor
      As Mao did not ask at one time, Stalin did not give, though friends


      who told you that Pakistan does not have friction with Iran? There is friction, though very strong. Iran supports Shiite groups in Pakistan, but Pakistan just supports Iranian Sunni groups. Recently, about 20 Iranian border guards were killed on the Iran-Pakistan border. responsibility was assumed by a grouping that is closely connected with the Pakistani Taliban.
  4. MIKHAN
    MIKHAN 23 November 2013 09: 25
    +6
    Oh, the Saudis play out .. Impudent like Israel .. (Russia is threatened with blackmail) .. Will they have a nuclear bomb (with self-delivery ..)))
  5. FC SKIF
    FC SKIF 23 November 2013 10: 16
    +2
    Pakistan will not give a bomb - fact. And one of the packs in their mess is easy.
  6. deputy ___ watered
    deputy ___ watered 23 November 2013 10: 28
    +2
    a bomb without delivery vehicles is one thing, and if the Saudis buy rockets this is a different story! Although they have F-16 in stock, and in certain cases this is already a delivery vehicle!
    1. rero
      rero 24 November 2013 04: 48
      +2
      the Saudis do not have f-16, they have f-15 tornado and eurofayer "/ because they have Chinese-made ballistic missiles with a range of 2500-3000 km, purchased in the 80s
  7. alone
    alone 23 November 2013 12: 21
    +2
    this world was never predictable. so I won’t be surprised if Sa suddenly receives nuclear weapons from Pakistan.
    SA financial assistance in creating nuclear weapons in Pakistan is an indisputable fact.
  8. Rus2012
    Rus2012 23 November 2013 12: 52
    +3
    http://www.newsru.com/world/07nov2013/sanuc.html
    Meanwhile, the Saudis in the al-Watan region south-west of the Saudi Arabian capital of Riyadh have deployed up to a dozen CSS-2 RSD (DongFeng 3, an analogue of the Soviet R-14 Chusovaya missile), purchased in China in the late 80s. Range of action - up to 4500 km.
    In total, it was purchased - before 1997, about 60 of the DF-3 rockets [http://ruskline.ru/analitika/2013/09/03/rasprostranenie_raketnyh_tehnologij_v_tr
    etem_mire /].
    And perhaps they bought atomic warheads for them from Pakistan, since they were in proportion during the development.
    Because they feel confident.

    Without these blocks, these carriers are worthless ...
  9. Migari
    Migari 23 November 2013 13: 15
    +2
    The current situation for Riyadh is very alarming
    The good news is, of course, the Saudis will not get anything from Pakistan, and although the proliferation of nuclear weapons is not desirable, but when it appears in Iran and Israel and the Saudis will have to moderate their warlike fervor, and parity will be restored with Israel.
  10. Ddhal
    Ddhal 23 November 2013 17: 33
    -1
    Well, what kind of nonsense .. If KSA needed a bomb, they would have bought it a long time ago if they had not already done so. Pakistani nuclear technology is spreading around the world almost by trading on the stock exchange, and the Pakistani government can influence it, like a wolf howling at the position of the moon ..
    Watch any movie about Abdul Kader Khan
  11. Ivanovich47
    Ivanovich47 23 November 2013 17: 47
    +3
    We can definitely conclude that the appearance of nuclear weapons in other countries of the Middle East region will lead to exacerbation of international tension. And most likely, the 3-I World War may begin in this region.
  12. EdwardTich68
    EdwardTich68 23 November 2013 20: 03
    0
    In order to use nuclear weapons, Pakistan needs a week to bring it into operational state. Of course, Saudi Arabia, whose existence is in question, has no intellectual
    opportunities to use even Pakistani nuclear weapons, although they are at the level of the 50s
    years of the last century.
  13. Kolyan 2
    Kolyan 2 23 November 2013 21: 15
    +1
    And why doesn’t anyone yell about the possible purchase of nuclear weapons by the camels? Did you dig into Iran? In my opinion, such toys should not be allowed into that region in general. (Bombs are not a toy for children) A pun came to mind. hi
    1. EdwardTich68
      EdwardTich68 23 November 2013 22: 31
      +1
      Because the media are in the hands of the Bloombergs, while the Russians, by no means, want to learn English in order to at least answer something.
  14. mountain
    mountain 24 November 2013 10: 32
    0
    I don’t believe in this canoe, they don’t buy lollipops on the market.
  15. Asan Ata
    Asan Ata 24 November 2013 22: 59
    0
    I was once in Pakistan, illegally. The travel agency bought tickets from Australia via Pakistan using their local airlines (apparently, my colleague got the agent so hard that she was joking). How they crossed the border, how they spent a day there and how they left - a separate conversation. So: in a country where you can shout at the border guard to pass a post without a visa - you can also carry a bomb. The time for the bans has passed, Syria and others have proven that only the owner of nuclear weapons can be calm. I think that if Russia and the States do not put an end to speed on the new crusades - wait for nuclear weapons from anyone.hi
  16. pribolt
    pribolt 26 November 2013 03: 29
    0
    And I liked the question - Can Saudi Arabia get a nuclear bomb from Pakistan? I would like them to receive it from anyone only on their own. laughing