Military Review

Close to the ceiling. Russian arms sales are expected to stagnate

19
Close to the ceiling. Russian arms sales are expected to stagnateIn the next three years, the export volume of Rosoboronexport Corporation will remain at the level of 2013, the state-owned company expects. Whereas in the last decade, its exports only grew from year to year, having increased fourfold. Meanwhile, global trade weapons, most likely, will continue to grow.


The Board of Directors of Rosoboronexport, which accounts for over 80% of Russian armaments and military equipment exports, approved the new development strategy of the company to 2020.

According to her, the volume of arms exports from 2013-th to 2016 year will remain at about 13 billion dollars a year, according to a statement of the state corporation Rostec, which includes Rosoboronexport. Thus, it seems that the export of Russian weapons reached the ceiling, at least for the near future.

This is all the more significant compared with the last decade, when the export of Russian military products only grew from year to year. From 2001 to 2012, Rosoboronexport increased its arms shipments in monetary terms almost four times. For example, in 2010, it was 8,7 billion dollars, in 2011 year - 10,7 billion dollars, and in 2012 year - already 12,9 billion dollars.

According to the results of 2013, Rosoboronexport plans to supply overseas military products by 13 billion dollars, the export volumes of helicopters will increase by 20% and the company expects 30% exports of air defense equipment.

Rosoboronexport explains the export forecast for the next three years by the situation on the world market. “We monitor all markets fully, study the needs for combat, helicopter, aircraft, armored vehicles in different countries and understand their development trends. The global market is changing, but there will be no drastic changes. Therefore, we assume that, most likely, a breakthrough (export of Russian weapons - approx. LOOK) in these years will not happen. We do not say that there will be a decline, but we cannot even say that there will be an increase (of exports). But this is a strategy. It can be adjusted and refined as our plans are fulfilled in this and next years, ”said Rosoboronexport spokesman Vyacheslav Davydenko to the VIEW newspaper.

Meanwhile, Rosoboronexport CEO Anatoly Isaikin said on Friday that one of the main goals of the new strategy is to expand the geography of supplies and the list of services. The company intends to expand its participation in international cooperation in the development, production and sale of military products. To this end, it is proposed to transfer to head organizations of Rostec corporation holding companies the right to directly provide after-sales service of military equipment supplied to foreign customers. # {Weapon}

According to Isaikin, the strategy also provides for "strengthening ties with defense industry enterprises, including the intensification of research and development work on the creation of new types of weapons, the development of programs for the modernization and disposal of weapons supplied earlier."

"No one has guarantees"

Experts say that finding new markets for weapons exports in Russia will not be so easy.

“There are no new countries where we can go. In Africa, you can enter many markets, but there are all beggars - they have demand, but there is no money, ”Alexander Khramchikhin, head of the analytical department of the Institute for Political and Military Analysis, told the newspaper VIEW.

“Due to the expansion of services, expansion of supply, we can certainly not increase the volume of exports in the next three years. This is a perspective for a decade, ”adds the expert.

“No one can ever guarantee that arms exports will grow, because the market is highly competitive, where new suppliers constantly come,” said Khramchikhin.

Traditional Markets

However, Khramchikhin points out possible problems with the export of Russian weapons and to traditional Russian markets.

“India has big complaints about the quality of our products, although it is our main customer. Venezuela, I think, will soon become completely uncompetitive, because the current president of the country has completely lost touch with reality, a financial collapse and a change of government can occur. And the new president will certainly not be our client. Algeria has already bought so much that it no longer needs it, ”says Khramchikhin.

“I would not say that we have established former ties with China. Since 2007, the volume of deliveries of Russian weapons to this country has dropped significantly. And our exports will never be restored to the previous level, ”the expert believes.

“Vietnam is a relatively constant and large client of ours, and I do not see any particular problems in this market. But all the others are already purchasing significantly smaller volumes of our military products, ”adds Khramchikhin.

“The growth rate of profits from the sale of domestic armaments is gradually decreasing,” confirms Ivan Andrievsky, first vice president of the Russian public organization Russian Union of Engineers, to the newspaper VIEW. “This is due to the unfavorable economic situation, the sanctions of the international community to the countries that actively acquired Russian weapons, and the difficult process of finding potential customers.”

“However, a number of Russian developments have no analogues in the world, and in this capacity is, for example, the most advanced fourth-generation fighter Su-35. Soon it is also planned to supply abroad new types of helicopters Mi-17, Mi-38 and Ka-62, ”says Andrievsky about the merits of Rosoboronexport.

Now Rosoboronexport supplies products to 70 countries of the world. The main importers of Russian weapons and military equipment are developing countries, and the main importer at the moment is India. “About 40% of supply falls to the countries of Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific region. Near and Middle East, North Africa exports more than 20% of the total, Latin American countries - 18%. And this is not counting services, ”says Ivan Andrievsky.

No contracts

In turn, the deputy head of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, Konstantin Makienko, believes that Rosoboronexport makes its forecast in terms of exports, based on the existing volume of orders for 38 billion dollars. In other words, excluding the emergence of new contracts. At the same time, according to him, there was no such thing that the company did not contract anything at all. That is, the forecast is extremely conservative, and it can be expected that real results will be higher.

Meanwhile, according to Makienko, strong growth in exports of Russian military products in quantitative terms was not observed in previous years. According to him, the growth was only nominal - in dollar terms.

Therefore, he doubts that supplies in iron will continue to grow, but he does not rule out that in nominal terms, exports may be higher than those indicated by Rosoboronexport 13 billion dollars. However, the reason here is not that the company will find new markets, but the fact that the dollar will continue to devalue, and product prices - to grow.

ATP bet

Meanwhile, according to Rosoboronexport, the global arms market has been growing by an average of 2000 – 3 billion dollars a year since 3,5. In 2008 – 2012, despite the crisis and the slowdown in the global economy, the global arms market increased by 30% to 73,5 billion dollars (IHS Jane's). Moreover, the boom in demand in eastern countries, in particular, the growth of exports from China and the sharply increased demand for weapons from countries such as India and Indonesia, contributed to this sharp jump in trade. More than 70% of military exports in recent years accounted for the top five countries: USA, Russia, France, Germany and the UK. Russia is now in second place in the world in terms of arms exports. However, the number of arms exporters is increasing, and competition between the main players is increasing. At the same time, over the past five years, 55% of the world's purchases of weapons accounted for only 13 countries.

By 2020, the global arms trade will double, and the demand for weapons will shift to the Asia-Pacific region, according to IHS Jane's. Therefore, the largest exporters of weapons should increase exports precisely to the east in order to maintain their sales.
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  1. Vadivak
    Vadivak 21 November 2013 12: 46
    20
    The first full-time acquaintance with the free competition market took place at an arms exhibition in the United Arab Emirates in 1993. As Valery Kartavtsev, the head of the PR service recalls, Russia made its debut very effectively, which potential competitors did not like very much.

    - When the time came to show what our missiles are capable of, the French turned on the station of their Roland air defense missile system at full capacity. It is impossible to shoot - there is strong interference, and the French have closed the hatches and pretend that nothing is happening. And then we rolled out the tank for direct fire. One shot with a slight excess was enough for the Roland's crew to realize: the jokes were over ...
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 21 November 2013 12: 49
      +8
      Quote: Vadivak
      And then we rolled out the tank for direct fire. One shot with a slight excess was enough for the crew of the "Roland"

      Frogs still probably scream in a dream laughing
      Hi Vadim hi
      1. Vadivak
        Vadivak 21 November 2013 17: 43
        +3
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        Hi Vadim


        Hi Sasha, such a fight without rules. Who will win hi
    2. atalef
      atalef 21 November 2013 12: 55
      +7
      Venezuela, I think, in the near future will become completely uncompetitive, because the current president of the country has completely lost touch with reality, financial collapse and a change of power may occur. And the new president will certainly not be our client. Algeria has already bought so much that it no longer needs it, ”says Khramchikhin.

      This was understandable a year ago. By the way, she received all weapons on a loan issued by Russia, what is his fate?
      Now everyone is talking about Egypt, it seems they agreed on 4 billion (Egypt will receive a discount of 50% - 2 billion) and will receive a loan for the rest, it seems that the entire defense export road is paved with a rake
      1. Vadivak
        Vadivak 21 November 2013 21: 45
        +3
        Quote: atalef
        the entire defense export road is paved with a rake


        In the end, pay us all the taxpayers and not Alikperov and Abramovmchu
        1. Thunderbolt
          Thunderbolt 21 November 2013 22: 33
          0
          Quote: Vadivak
          And then we rolled out the tank for direct fire. One shot with a slight excess was enough for the Roland's crew to realize: the jokes were over ...
          Fine good !
      2. timer
        timer 22 November 2013 00: 09
        -4
        What is it, at our expense, by order of the Putin, loans are issued to unstable countries that most likely will not return them ?! So this is a crime! The country lacks medicines, hospitals, schools, etc., and this "popular the leader "distributes credits to the right and to the left! The rat will play out.
        As regards defense exports, one must be flexible in competitive markets, seek new mechanisms to expand and strengthen their positions.
    3. And Us Rat
      And Us Rat 22 November 2013 02: 35
      0
      - When the time came to show what our missiles are capable of, the French turned on the station of their Roland air defense missile system at full capacity. Impossible to shoot - strong interference ...


      But what is the point of these missiles if it is impossible to shoot them in conditions of radio interference from an air defense radar, and then what will happen to them when they are targeted by electronic warfare systems ??? belay
      1. Thunderbolt
        Thunderbolt 22 November 2013 03: 02
        0
        Imagine the effect if the source is within the "duel shot" range. Only tanks help wassat
        1. And Us Rat
          And Us Rat 22 November 2013 18: 53
          0
          Quote: Thunderbolt
          Imagine the effect if the source is within the "duel shot" range. Only tanks help wassat


          Yes, but electronic warfare equipment can operate from a greater distance, but purposefully, with a focused radio beam, with an order of magnitude greater power and a wider frequency range ... so my question is still valid.
  2. Same lech
    Same lech 21 November 2013 12: 48
    +3
    However, Khramchikhin notes ....

    Again, the great expert drew.
    1. 31231
      31231 21 November 2013 19: 31
      +3
      Where not stick expert. But there is no one to work and create.

      An all-prose article. Only one thing these comrades do not understand, Russian weapons are not only cheap, but also easy to use. Highly intelligent weapons, not every developing country will be able to control.
      The day before yesterday, the Japs from Furakawa arrived, so we immediately told them that the simpler the management and maintenance, the greater the demand for the goods on the market.
  3. Russ69
    Russ69 21 November 2013 12: 49
    +2
    In the arms market, competition is off the charts. So, there will be failures and good luck ...
  4. aszzz888
    aszzz888 21 November 2013 13: 00
    +2
    He who walks will master! Stop - competitors will crush.
  5. Cherdak
    Cherdak 21 November 2013 13: 01
    +4
    Quote: p
    says Khramchikhin.


    Shurka got out again - .. an outfit. At least for decency he would have been in the army, chmoshnik-MGUshnik. But again with polymers ...
    1. Nayhas
      Nayhas 21 November 2013 13: 21
      +1
      Quote: Cherdak
      Shurka got out again - .. an outfit. At least for decency he would have been in the army, chmoshnik-MGUshnik. But again with polymers ...

      So give your forecast. If Khrakhikhin is the same as you said, then please express your opinion about the sales?
  6. makarov
    makarov 21 November 2013 13: 16
    +3
    The author of the material did not cover the latest trends in the arms trade. For example, that very successfully in the world market are bartner schemes. Such options today account for more than 30% of the total arms trade. Maybe sellers need to be more flexible? After all, the market is in Africa.
    1. Nayhas
      Nayhas 21 November 2013 13: 22
      +2
      Quote: makarov
      The author of the material did not cover the latest trends in the arms trade. For example, that very successfully in the world market are bartner schemes.

      Is it like in the 90s with palm oil? Shaw again? ...
      1. makarov
        makarov 21 November 2013 15: 15
        +1
        Well, where without this ??? For lack of a maid, t.s. copulate with a janitor, (pah pah pah, so as not to jinx the poor fellow illegal immigrant-Asian)
  7. Kolovrat77
    Kolovrat77 21 November 2013 13: 26
    0
    Comrades (gentlemen or Panov), I understand that it’s off topic, but there was a ZIL punisher info in VO, since then I became interested in this armored car, and about two (three) weeks ago there was a movie on the star and a familiar silhouette flashed there, I thought it would be material on VO, but silence, if there is something to read about this device, give a link, please.
  8. svp67
    svp67 21 November 2013 13: 35
    +7
    Close to the ceiling. Russian arms sales are expected to stagnate
    Any conversation about "stagnation" in me causes at least - INSUFFICIENCY, and more - anger. This is what kind of "employees" - "effective managers" who DO NOT DO ANYTHING TO CHANGE THE SITUATION IN YOUR USE. Enough "moaning" about the "coming crisis" and "stagnation", WORK IS NECESSARY. To develop new industries, domestically, educate people, invest in science. Everything that we got in the USSR. And down with the "main executive body of our country" - the government of the Russian Federation, whose ministers do not see the possibility of the country's development until 2030 ... We need people who see this development, know, want and know how to do it ...
    1. smith7
      smith7 21 November 2013 16: 27
      +2
      "We must work" is an excellent and relevant slogan. But in the "stagnation" of exports there is (IMHO) also reluctance or, more precisely, less active desire of the Russian Federation to share the best technologies with "clients". In the dashing 90s, they easily shared production launch and design documentation, sold production licenses. And now the share of high-tech and science-intensive weapons has multiplied, but the Russian Federation is in no hurry to share them, and there is no demand for “yesterday's” weapons. Those who pay with real money (the same sheikhs and India) want the best. But the best thing is necessary ... China was sold drawings for MLRS - now they are our direct competitors. Better not to risk it and temper your ardor. If I guess right, it's for the best that we will sell fewer weapons.
      1. Grbear
        Grbear 21 November 2013 18: 34
        +1
        svp67 and smith7, you are both right (and "+" - one, so, as in "Dowry").

        They got experts with stagnation, profanation and ovulation. There is a concept in the Russian language - we have reached a certain level of development (hereinafter - this is NIZ-Z-Ya), we are consolidating ourselves. And all.

        And so, verbiage.
  9. ZU-23
    ZU-23 21 November 2013 13: 59
    +1
    Of course, they are all beggars, they get high on loans, here you look and our money has become scarce, and before our 400 billion dollars a year went there, and now it’s up to 50-70 billion, well, of course they untwisted prices, God forbid.
  10. Ivanovich47
    Ivanovich47 21 November 2013 14: 25
    +1
    Quote: "... the number of arms exporting states is increasing, and the competition between the major players is increasing." Take, for example, China. Recently there was a message. that he won a tender to supply a batch of anti-aircraft defense equipment to Turkey, analogues of C-300. So, Russia did not receive the money. Judging by the pace of copying Russian technology, China will continue to push our country out of the market. Here is the main problem for our gunsmiths!
  11. Prutkov
    Prutkov 21 November 2013 14: 59
    +1
    Quote: Nayhas
    Quote: makarov
    The author of the material did not cover the latest trends in the arms trade. For example, that very successfully in the world market are bartner schemes.

    Is it like in the 90s with palm oil? Shaw again? ...

    Well, in Africa there are not only palm trees. Not for nothing that the Chinese are rolling there.
  12. calocha
    calocha 21 November 2013 15: 47
    0
    Redirect to the domestic market ... And part, from sales from abroad, to send money to develop the latest types of weapons.
  13. redcod
    redcod 21 November 2013 15: 56
    +1
    A non-firing rifle priced at 1000 euros has become another problem for Germany

    21.11.2013/XNUMX/XNUMX Search the site We are in Vkontakte


    Hk g36

    New weapons scandal in the German Ministry of Defense. Information about problems with the army’s main assault rifle, G36, leaked to Spiegel magazine.

    The Bundeswehr can no longer remain silent about the problems with the standard G36 assault rifle and is already starting to look for a replacement. According to an August memo, the army command must decide whether the manufacturer Heckler & Koch can deliver an improved model or whether it will be necessary to develop a new rifle.

    Talk about the flaws of the rifle has been going on for a long time. In particular, she was blamed for the insufficient stopping effect of the bullet and its unstable trajectory. But now it has come to the point that soldiers are advised to cool the barrel after prolonged firing, otherwise, they will have to prepare for weapons failures.

    General Rainer Korff is in talks with assault rifle manufacturers in order to prepare a market overview for himself. According to the note, the flaws of the G36, 180 copies of which were purchased for 000 million euros, are even more than anticipated. Until now, it has been known that the G180 loses accuracy as soon as it is heated in the sun or in bursts of fire. German infantrymen cannot confidently conduct intensive fire at distances of more than 36 meters, "the internal report says. According to the study, after shooting a magazine (100 rounds), the point of impact at a distance of 30 meters shifts by 100-40 centimeters. This is unacceptable. The reason lies in plastic, which is used in the rifle.Even with slight increases in temperature, it becomes plastic and loses its shape.

    In addition, there is evidence that, in a "damp environment, accuracy decreases even at room temperature." In this regard, the question arises about the use of G36 on all fronts and especially on the coast of Africa.

    A 1000 Euro non-firing rifle is too expensive for a warring country.

    Source:

    bratgoblin.livejournal.com
  14. uzer 13
    uzer 13 21 November 2013 18: 30
    0
    It seems that Rosoboronexport does not represent the interests of the state, but some kind of near-governmental groups and strongly resembles the structure created by Serdyukov in the Moscow Region that covers the theft. It’s enough to get rid of these gray dealers and things will go better. not everyone wants to deal with intermediaries who are a little dishonest. Well, and another factor that greatly affects trading matters is the quality of the goods. Quality is the best advertising, and there is nothing to be done.
  15. kush62
    kush62 21 November 2013 19: 05
    +1
    In Africa, you can enter many markets, but there are all the poor - they have demand, but there is no money, ”-

    I hope the gifts have already ended and we won’t hear about another write-off of debts, another friendly banana republic in about seventy years.
  16. voliador
    voliador 21 November 2013 20: 43
    +1
    Quality and service, both warranty and post warranty, this is our problem. Because of this, we are losing contracts.
  17. Warrawar
    Warrawar 21 November 2013 20: 55
    0
    "Stagnation" is not a bad word - it just has a limit, and arms sales are no exception. The capacity of the market has not been canceled.
    We need to focus on the civilian sector, there are more volumes than in the defense industry.