What powers will win and lose from the Arab Troubles
The wave of revolution continues to walk in the Middle and Near East. Unrest of varying intensity swept Algeria, Morocco, Oman, Yemen, Bahrain, Jordan. In Libya, there is already a civil war.
Possible states - “hot spots”
- Egypt: Politically, the revolution in Egypt has just begun, the issue of power has not been resolved, the army has temporarily stabilized the situation until the elections. The influence of the Muslim Brotherhood movement has increased. The economy is weakened - tourism is paralyzed, in the near future (up to 5 years) - a decrease in the flow of the Nile River, while South Sudan has implemented plans to build hydroelectric power stations in the upper reaches of the Nile.
Egypt is threatened with a slow slide (with further rapid growth of the population, but says nothing that it will be reduced) to the level of a state like Yemen or Somalia. Another option is that in order to survive, Cairo will have to begin external expansion, possibly under the slogan of "pan-Arab unity." Expansion routes are traditional: the South, connecting to Northern Sudan (which used to be part of British Egypt), then it is possible to strike further south through the territory of Southern Sudan with its oil fields. After that, Egypt can become the center of the unification of the Arab world. After that, it is still a conflict with Israel, it will be difficult to avoid it.
The second route, more dangerous, is expansion to the North. An attempt to reset the drive of youth in the war with Israel. There is a possible catastrophic scenario for Egypt - the loss of the Sinai Peninsula and the Israeli attack on the Aswan Dam. This will dramatically worsen the problem of food (because it will hit agriculture) and energy supply, not counting the losses from flooding. The option is not direct confrontation, but Cairo’s secret support of the Hamas movement in the fight against Israel.
- Sudan There is a big question whether South and North Sudan will be able to "part" peacefully following the results of the referendum. A new civil war with hundreds of thousands of dead and refugees is possible. The issue of dividing the oil-bearing regions of Sudan is not resolved - the problems of Darfur, Kordofan are waiting in the wings.
Such events will sharply complicate the situation in the strategically important Red Sea and in the Suez Canal area. The problem of pirates of Somalia will be a trifle in comparison with the possible consequences of the war in Sudan and Egypt.
- Algeria, President Bouteflika still holds control over the country, but the situation could get out of control any day – the country has been in a civil war (which has died down to date) between the authorities and Islamists since 1992. There is a powerful Islamist underground in Algeria, which supports the rural population and is assisted by huge Algerian communities outside the country (Spain, France). In addition, there is the problem of the Berber tribes, which resist Arabization. The “Egyptian option” is quite possible, when the president steps down, leaving power to the army until elections are held.
- Moroccowill also collapse as the situation in Algeria becomes more complicated. There are problems of separatism - Western Sahara, the Islamist underground, which is increasingly pressing on the authorities, committing terrorist acts against the Christian, Jewish population, attacking tourists. Morocco’s confluence with chaos will drastically complicate the situation in the strategically important Straits of Gibraltar.
The descent of Algeria and Morocco into controlled chaos will sharply worsen the situation in Europe – hundreds of thousands of refugees, Algerian and Moroccan pirates will appear (thankfully, historical the experience of these countries in this industry is enormous).
- Yemen, the collapse of President Saleh’s positions is guaranteed to lead to an outbreak of violence and the collapse of the country, to the secession of South Yemen. Huge problems will begin in Saudi Arabia and Oman. The Shiite tribes of Yemen have proven their fighting ability in clashes with the army of Saudi Arabia. The scenario of the fall of Saudi Arabia and Oman is very possible.
- Bahrain and Oman, the fall of the power of the Sunni elite in Bahrain, in a country where the majority are Shiites, can also lead to the collapse of the country. Oman can also cease to exist as a single state - the problem of the province of Dhofar.
- Jordan, corruption has undermined the position of the Hashemite dynasty among the Bedouin tribes. The situation is complicated by the mass of Palestinians (the majority of the population) and approximately 700 thousands of Iraqi refugees.
- Iraq and Afghanistan, already converted into territories, the collapse and subsequent civil war which only holds back the presence of the occupying forces.
- Pakistan, was one of the most unstable states and before the Arab Troubles, and now the danger has increased even more. Its collapse, civil war will force India to intervene or force the United States to conduct an operation to eliminate Pakistan’s nuclear forces.
Who is the winner?
- Turkey and Iran received political dividends in the short term. The fall of Mubarak’s power in Egypt and the weakening of Saudi Arabia’s position have made Iran and Turkey the leaders of the Islamic world. In addition, Iran and Turkey are now “allies” in terms of their attitude towards Israel.
Ankara is beginning to restore its position as a great power, still very carefully, but the process has begun. Iran and Turkey have agreed on the division of spheres of influence in Iraq in the event of the withdrawal of American forces. In Turkey, the secular elite of the army, which was preventing the Islamization of the country, has been defeated, now the process will go faster. The ruling triumvirate of Prime Minister Erdogan, President Gul and Foreign Minister Davutoglu has consolidated the dominant position in the country of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which is leading the country towards moderate Islamization. Prime Minister Erdogan criticized Berlin's domestic policy aimed at the "Germanization" of the Turkish community in Germany, and called on Turks in Germany to preserve their culture and language. Ankara has limited cooperation within NATO to purely Turkish interests, and its dependence on the United States is decreasing. The Turkish army, which is conducting military operations in Iraq, is being strengthened, and fleet. Iran and Turkey cooperate in the area of introducing Iranian resources (oil, gas) into the European market.
- Iran successfully hit the first wave of the revolution and, apparently, is ready to go for greater rigidity in order to keep the situation under control. Tehran, despite pressure from the West, is developing an atomic program, improving the armed forces. Gradually, a revolutionary Iran is transformed into a national one, into the power of the Persians. Its influence extends to the powerful movements of Hamas, Hezbollah, the real armies of Iran, beyond its borders. Iran has established good contacts with a number of Latin American countries, for example, with Venezuela. Revolutions in the Arab countries strengthen the position of Iran, undermine the forces of competitors in the struggle for leadership in the Islamic world. Possible scenario is Iran’s absorption of part of the wreckage of Iraq, Bahrain, Oman, which once belonged to the Persian Empire.
- Russia, already wins on the rise in energy prices. For the European Union, the Russian Federation is becoming a very important partner in order to preserve its energy. The Russian Federation can support Tehran on the path of its transformation into a great power, which will return us the friendship of the Persians. Russia will only benefit from this, we will get a strategic ally and a huge sales market for our goods - weapons, airplanes, railway rolling stock, etc. It is possible to implement a mass of joint projects in the field of the peaceful atom, the construction of railways, aircraft building, shipbuilding, the development of Caspian fields, etc. We can also maintain friendly neutrality towards Turkey by supporting it on the way out of the union with the US and the EU.
- China, it can dramatically strengthen its position in these regions in conditions of chaos and the growth of hatred among the Arabs towards the United States and the West, especially if NATO embarks on military intervention against any country, for example, Libya.
- USIn the medium term, they can strengthen their positions by planting even more pro-Western groups in the capitals. Time is won, distracting the world from its problems and preparing for the Great War. Competitor groups in Europe are “lowered” - primarily France and Germany. In the long term, the situation may be complicated by the strengthening of Iran’s positions, the “cooling off” of the alliance with Turkey, its Islamization, the penetration of China and the sharp strengthening of the positions of radical Islam.
Who loses
- Ordinary population of Arab and other countrieswhere the wave of Troubles will come. They are waiting for a sharp deterioration in life, food problems - hunger, wars, including civilians, the flight of millions of people in search of elementary living conditions, water, food, is possible. The rule of S. Hussein, Mubarak, Gaddafi will still be remembered as a time of stability and improvement of the lives of the majority.
- European Union - waves of migrants from Tunisia, Libya have already gone, this will complicate the life of European countries - additional finances for the border service, migration services, the police, the need to arrange basic living conditions for thousands (possibly millions) of refugees. The growth of crime situation, Nazi sentiment in society. In France and Austria, national parties are already the most popular. Europe will take the path of tightening control over society, fascization of a number of states is possible. The problem of energy delivery, their rise in price. The possibility of the appearance of pirates in the Mediterranean. The need to conduct military operations for the export of its citizens, the suppression of terrorist bases, pirates.
- Israel, the Jewish state gets the possibility of war around the perimeter of the borders. There were no more allies in the Arab world, more enemies, a radicalization of sentiments in Arab countries would lead to a search for enemies. Tel Aviv needs to revise its policy towards the US and look for a new strategic patron, there are two candidates - China, but it’s far, and there are few common interests, and Russia. Given the fact that Israel, in fact, allowed Stalin to create and the presence of a powerful community of Russian (Soviet) Jews, it is possible to create a stable strategic partnership.
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