Syria, as a candidate for the next revolution
The “virus” of the revolution, launched in the Arab world and already penetrating beyond its borders - unrest recorded in Croatia, Greece, Armenia, Iran, Côte d'Ivoire, etc., quite successfully copes with the task of changing the Arab elite to a more compliant .In Tunisia, Ben Ali seized power in a palace coup in 1987 and ruled for 24 years.
In Egypt, Hosni Mubarak assumed supreme power after a coup in October 1981 and ruled the country for 30 years.
In Libya, Muammar Gaddafi came to power in a military coup in 1969 and has held it for 42 years. And there is virtually no chance that he will be able to defeat the rebel movement, which is supported by almost the entire world community. Gaddafi will be removed by a military tribunal or a military operation.
The next, most likely candidate for the revitalization of the “revolutionary forces” is Syria. Damascus is one of the countries so-called. "Axis of evil" - Iran, Syria, North Korea. Western public outraged persecution of the political opposition, restrictions on freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, the death penalty.
In foreign policy, Damascus is focused on Iran, which is a crime in the eyes of the West. In addition, Syria supports, along with Iran, the Lebanese militant party Hezbollah, the Palestinian radical movements, the anti-American rebels in Iraq. Washington believes that Damascus is one of the sponsors of "international terrorism".
In addition, the West and Israel, with the support of the IAEA, believe that Damascus is developing a nuclear weapons.
Syria's internal problems
- With a population of over 20 million, the people of Syria are quite divided along religious lines: more than half are Sunnis, a significant part are communities of Twelver Shiites, Ismailis, Nizari Ismailis, and Alawites. Approximately 10% of the population are Christians.
- The Kurdish problem: approximately 2 million Kurds live in Northern Syria, the Kurds want to create their own state.
- The economy is growing steadily: as the industry - oil, oil refining, electric power, gas, phosphate mining, food, textile, chemical (production of fertilizers, plastics), electrical, and agriculture - export cotton, animal products, vegetables and fruits. There is a problem of high unemployment, as in other countries of the Arab world - approximately 20%, among young people even higher - 30%. The income level is rather low, the per capita income is about 1000 dollars per year. But the revolution itself will not be able to radically increase the incomes of ordinary people, since the country does not have huge reserves of natural resources, like Libya or the United Arab Emirates.
- The situation is worsened by a rather high level of corruption, high defense spending heavily burdens the economy, Syria contains an army of about 320 thousands of people.
- The problem of radical Islamists. The country has been under a state of emergency since 1963, which has given law enforcement agencies expanded powers.
Bashar Hafez al-Assad, President of Syria since 2000, who inherited this position from his father Hafez al-Assad, is not going to cede power and is trying to carry out a number of reforms before the start of widespread unrest: Assad said he wanted to start a wide modernization in the country, to hold municipal elections , strengthen the powers of non-governmental organizations and ease censorship in society.
Prospects
Despite the complex of economic, social, national and religious problems, Assad has quite a high chance of retaining power. He has many supporters in society, and simultaneous measures to modernize the country and suppress possible unrest will help him retain power. Plus, Damascus has the support of Iran.
Armed intervention against his power is very unlikely, Syria has a rather strong army capable of causing serious damage to the enemy. Another question is whether the army elite will support the president? If not, then he is doomed.
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