Generally, if we ignore the conspiracy, then Ukraine is “taken for pont”, because of the elementary feeling of envy of a rich neighbor, however, you should not underestimate it: recently the same envy of the West has ruined the Soviet Union indestructible. The West today, as it is then, is selflessly lying, only this time about how it loves Ukraine, and Ukraine became thoughtful: maybe I really am a beauty? Beautiful, of course, like cheese in a fable about Crow and Fox.
To think that the West wants Ukraine to prosper, and in general to anyone else, is the lot of “idiots”, but only truly independent minds speak this politically correct truth: philosopher A.A. Zinoviev, when the USSR played the role of such a fabulous cheese. World politics is a kind of chess, on the one hand the West, on the other - Russia, and this once again confirmed the escape of E. Snowden from the world of “e-democracy”.
I already wrote about this attempt at “European integration” of Ukraine: about Putin’s “Ukrainian” tranquility, Yanukovich’s provocations, the hysterical two-faced Poland, about the alleged “stupidity” of the European Union, who seized upon Yulia Tymoshenko, that is, opening the way to Europe for Yanukovich without fail through disgrace. Why such intricate moves?
Actually, Yanukovych’s betrayal of Russia de facto has already happened, in fact, he has long pursued a policy of European integration, betraying a strategic alliance with Russia, but the West is demanding to give a receipt for this in order to consolidate the position also de jure. This, of course, is the Rubicon, after which a change in Russian policy will occur, as Putin has repeatedly said: the customs regime on the border with Ukraine will be tightened.
Ukraine as "Panama"
Until now, Russia treated Ukraine as a kindred country, hence the special economic relations. In the family, there is the notion of a “cut hunk”, when a native person who has betrayed the family is treated as a stranger. Here is something similar will happen in the attitude of Russia to Ukraine, friendship with it will begin to be regulated by WTO rules, as with any Panama. In fact, Russia will leave Ukraine to the arbitrariness of the world market, and will be considered only as its “independent” player.
This means that for Russia, Ukraine will turn from a subject of world politics into an object of politics, which it is now for the West. This means that Russia will begin to pursue a policy similar to the West, that is, to consider Ukraine as any kind of bridgehead: without sentiment, and following its own benefit, without any favors, it does not give them to Ukraine and the West. Only in debt at a commercial interest, and go and buy everything yourself on the world market. But if Panama is far away, then the Ukrainian “Panama” is close by.
Until recently, Russia adhered to a passive policy, did not support the pro-Russian social forces in Ukraine, as the West does in relation to its zapadentsev, respected the sovereignty of Ukraine. But after the passage of Ukraine by the Rubicon, it will become the object of application of Russian policy, that is, Russia will begin an active policy in Ukraine, like the West, and will politically protect pro-Russian politicians, such as Odessan Igor Markov.
Evroshantazh "split Ukraine"
But with the active policy of both the West and Russia, the danger of a split in Ukraine sharply increases. Here, the example of Czechoslovakia is usually recalled, which also split, without any particular problems, but the split of Ukraine cannot be compared with it. Both parts of the former Czechoslovakia remained the same in the sphere of the West, its split was beneficial to the European bureaucrats: it was easier to talk with the small principalities.
The split of Ukraine, this process itself, is a European force majeure, it is a strategic danger for Russia, so Putin is trying to avoid it to the last, therefore he doesn’t say anything, even when pro-Russian politicians in Ukraine are subjected to repression.
Since there is a great danger that our Western colleagues will try to conduct this split according to the Yugoslav scenario. By this scenario, the western “European integrators of Ukraine” are already blackmailing Russia when they demand not to interfere in the matter of eating Ukrainian cheese, that is, they demand not to change the customs regime on the Russian-Ukrainian border. This is a brazen pressure on Russia itself.
In fact, the West is demanding that Russia give the go-ahead for the “European integration” of Ukraine, and even pay for economic and political risks. It is clear that Russia will not accept this, because such a weakening of its position in the near future is more dangerous for Russia than the dangers of splitting Ukraine. Putin is a good “political chess player,” and he understands this and firmly says that he will transfer the customs border to the WTO regime, and thus he will fight for influence in Ukraine: there is nowhere to retreat, Russia is behind.
So, on the chessboard we see the position: either a peaceful takeover of Ukraine by the West, or a split of Ukraine with unpredictable consequences. But ... with unpredictable consequences, not only for Russia, but also for Europe, unlike the States, which, from overseas, use Polish hands, and their Euroshesterok, tend to “associate” Ukraine with the European Union. The West is no longer a single entity, the interests of the United States and Europe no longer coincide, therefore we see the “strange” Tymoshenko’s policy of Europe.
This stops the new Mazepa-Yanukovich from the last move in this “chess game,” and makes him fly to Moscow to Putin. Facts are a stubborn thing: Ukrainian Mazepas understand, of course, that the European integration case begins to clearly smell kerosene for them: the loss of the Russian market, without any compensation from Europe, and then the destabilization of Ukraine. Therefore, the latest European integration laws in Ukraine have not yet been adopted.
Russia, represented by Putin, makes it clear that blackmail by the “split of Ukraine” does not frighten her, Russia will turn off special relations with Ukraine anyway, and will draw appropriate conclusions regarding Ukraine and Europe. But such a scenario, objectively, weakens Europe (with a devastated Ukraine around its neck) and does not need Germany at all, which in this case is “Europe”, and here German (European) interests and American interests diverge.
Formally, the absence of the latest European integration laws already gives Germany a reason to say "no" to the Ukrainian association, the second option: the European Union and Ukraine will diplomatically agree to a technical foul - put off the "association" case under this specious pretext, and the unresolved "Yulia Tymoshenko problem."
Thus, the Ukrainian "chess" party "Russia - the West" ends in a draw, but there is also a loser - this is Yanukovich, the "new Mazepa", he crossed the Rubicon ... However, what would everyone do without such an incident as "Yulia Tymoshenko"? Unique political figure in Ukraine today!