Military Review

Myths and legends of Afghanistan: stability after 2014 ...

33
The closer 2014 is to the year, the more talk is about the consequences of the withdrawal of the so-called joint military contingent of international ISAF forces. In simple terms, begin (or rather, enter into the most active phase) reflections on what will happen to Afghanistan after the Americans leave it. And the main controversy revolves around the question of whether the radical Islamists (or the pseudo-Islamists) “trample” to the north - towards the Central Asian republics or not, and what to do if you still trample ...


For example, at a meeting with CSTO head Nikolai Bordyuzha, which took place last week, OSCE Secretary General Lamberto Zannier expressed the opinion that there would be no catastrophe due to the withdrawal of international coalition forces from Afghanistan, adding, as it were, to

... there are fears of a certain negative impact of the situation that will be in Afghanistan on the CSTO member states.


Such contradictory judgments of Mr. Zanier can be interpreted as follows: for Afghanistan itself, of course, there will be no negative - where there is much more negative, if literally every day blood is shed here, explosions thunder, inter-clan clashes occur and the economy does not get out of the knockout, but you should expect negative let's say, just north. A little to the north is, first of all, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan (CSTO members) and Uzbekistan with Turkmenistan (CSTO members are not, but having common borders with Afghanistan). The reason is that it is unlikely that the same Americans will leave Afghanistan just like that. It is absolutely unprofitable for them to leave the region with at least a ghostly chance of stability - and these are not groundless accusations against the United States, it is an assessment of their real activity in different regions of the world.

And in order to arrange political tectonics in a huge region from the southern provinces of Afghanistan to the Kazakh and southern Russian borders, today a lot is not needed. It is enough to retain control of the drug trade (traffic of Afghan opiates) to obtain more than impressive profits, arm the Afghan one, forgive my God, army and police, and even make a luxurious “gift” of used weapons and military equipment. Asian states. And that's it! Flywheel will start to work.

And the scenario of his work (if, of course, no one is going to stop this flywheel) looks like this: Afghan "soldiers" and "policemen", realizing that the role of the Afghan "army" and "police" in the face of American "partners" no longer needed, amicably outbid to hot friends of the Taliban and other radical organizations, and even weapons on hands. At the same time (according to the Libyan variant), some will consider that they have more rights, while others will try to select some of their rights with the use of at least small arms ... The result is toughening of clan strife, which will be cultivated for the time being American "instructors" who are trying not to lose the established control over the income from poppy plantations. By the way, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, together with the Government of Afghanistan, published data that in 2013 for the production of opium, Afghanistan broke all records - the area of ​​illegal production (legal production - for medical purposes) of opium increased by as much as 36% from January to October. It is noteworthy that the real leader here is Helmand Province, where several ISAF military bases are located ... An interesting coincidence ...

Myths and legends of Afghanistan: stability after 2014 ...


Let's return to the possible scenario. The American "instructors" will "work" in Afghanistan until it gets very hot. Further, their task can be reduced to how to redirect the desires of armed Afghan formations not only to fight with each other, but also to attacks, for example, in Tajikistan or Uzbekistan. Considering how “good” today is the relationship between Tashkent and Dushanbe, a small spark is enough here for a large powder keg to explode, hitting Russia with a blast wave, for obvious reasons.

What should be done to prevent such an explosion from occurring and to prevent the flywheel from moving. The states included in the CSTO are aimed at strengthening the southern borders. One of the priorities is the border between Tajikistan and Afghanistan. There are fears that it is she who will take the possible blow from the extremists who have felt freedom of action. In this regard, a number of measures are planned to provide military-technical assistance to the Tajik border forces, many of which are already being implemented.

But even if a full-scale strengthening of the Tajik-Afghan border is carried out, is there an 100% guarantee that the extremists will go in that direction? There may be a rush - yes, but 100% -guarantee, of course, no and can not be. The leaders of the motley Afghan factions, perhaps of the military academies, did not finish, but they were not born yesterday either, to go head-on. There are other options for moving north - through the same Uzbekistan, which has suspended its membership in the CSTO and, judging by the words of the representatives of the Uzbek authorities, is not going to the Organization. It is not going yet ... There is, as already mentioned above, also Turkmenistan, which at the end of last year agreed with Uzbekistan on joint protection of borders.

However, today the authorities of Uzbekistan are not inclined to believe that any major threat will emanate from Afghanistan if they immediately start restoring the economy of the IRA (Islamic Republic of Afghanistan). Sadik Safayev, the head of the foreign affairs committee of Uzbekistan, said the other day who, after his visit to Tashkent Valentina Matvienko, criticized the words of the speaker of the Uzbek senate Ilgizar Sobirov about the “positive attitude of the Republic towards a possible entry into the Customs Union”.

Safayev believes that the countries of the region should now throw all their efforts on economic assistance to Afghanistan - to help restore roads, promote the opening of new jobs in the IRA, and develop agriculture. This, according to Safayev, will lead to stability in Afghanistan - there after peace "peace" will prevail peace and prosperity ...
Well, the idea is, of course, altruistic ... Only now, firstly, the “agriculture” of Afghanistan is unlikely to be given to Uzbekistan by the American “partners” - this economy is really profitable for them ... And, secondly, the “fraternal” help will be whom? Does Mr. Safaev really believe that after 2014, an independent government will work in Afghanistan? If he thinks so, then his optimism can only envy.

Meanwhile, interesting information about the withdrawal of the ISAF contingent comes from Afghanistan itself. The press secretary of the IRA president, Imal Faizi, said:

Despite the fact that in 2014, most of the foreign forces will leave the territory of the IRA, the country will not be abandoned, since NATO and the US intend to continue their presence in Afghanistan as part of the new mission.


I wonder if this is the mission, the scenario of which is given above ...

At the same time, the press secretary of Hamid Karzai stressed that he did not understand those people who expressed doubts about the real fighting capacity of the Afghan army and the opposition of this army to extremists. According to Faizi:
The situation in this area has changed over the past year.

After these words of the head of the press service of the head of the Afghan state, acts of terrorism were committed in the Ghazni province (a car was blown up near the police station) and Helmand, a meeting of Taliban leaders was held in Islamabad, the Kajran district in Daikundi province came under the control of the Taliban , in the province of Badakhshan, the activity of Turkmen (as it sounds in the official summary) militant groups was noted, statistics was released on the increase in the number of casualties among the civilian population of Afghanistan by 16% from January to September s and that the police IRA 70% can neither read nor write.



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  1. Canep
    Canep 15 November 2013 07: 51 New
    +6
    In the photo, as I understand it, the Afghan army. No wonder they have such a low morale. I think there are mostly beggars. I would not like to put on such a uniform. I think their uniform should be something like this:

    1. Canep
      Canep 15 November 2013 09: 51 New
      15
      And it looks like an officer of the US Army Agronomy Service is inspecting poppy fields in Afghanistan to make a forecast about not future crops.
    2. igor67
      igor67 15 November 2013 12: 02 New
      +3
      Quote: Canep
      In the photo, as I understand it, the Afghan army. No wonder they have such a low morale. I think there are mostly beggars. I would not like to put on such a uniform. I think their uniform should be something like this:

      And so they looked when the torus soldier
    3. ed65b
      ed65b 15 November 2013 13: 15 New
      +1
      This is the old form from Galliano, now they are in fashion from Armani. laughing
    4. pawel57
      pawel57 15 November 2013 17: 31 New
      +3
      if it is a form as in the USSR, then it is normal and they keep themselves clean, better than our brother. Here are faces of course nasty.
    5. alone
      alone 15 November 2013 19: 32 New
      0
      Quote: Canep
      I think their clothing should be something like this:


      and this is the form of the Taliban)
  2. makarov
    makarov 15 November 2013 08: 07 New
    0
    Quote: Canep
    I think there are mostly beggars.


    To eat, to support a family. There is no work anywhere. So they go to the army in order to feed themselves. And not in order to protect the state.
    1. igor67
      igor67 15 November 2013 12: 25 New
      +4
      Quote: makarov
      Quote: Canep
      I think there are mostly beggars.


      To eat, to support a family. There is no work anywhere. So they go to the army in order to feed themselves. And not in order to protect the state.

      They also had factories
  3. Scandinavian
    Scandinavian 15 November 2013 08: 30 New
    +1
    Bearded men in the army is not the case ... there will never be order ...
    1. Canep
      Canep 15 November 2013 09: 11 New
      +3
      They can say about us - shaved, and they also may not like us. The army should consist of representatives of the people, and if everything is there without exception with a beard, would you order a shave of the soldiers?
      1. Scandinavian
        Scandinavian 15 November 2013 15: 53 New
        +2
        lice and unsanitary conditions ... is this the order in the army?
  4. Rinat 1
    Rinat 1 15 November 2013 08: 58 New
    +8
    This is not an army, this is a flock of prostitutes. As soon as the United States loses interest in this country, this army will be in the ranks of the Taliban
    1. Walking
      Walking 15 November 2013 14: 49 New
      +4
      So this is the Taliban, only he disguised himself.
  5. Yuri Y.
    Yuri Y. 15 November 2013 10: 04 New
    0
    Safaev believes that the countries of the region should already put all their efforts into economic assistance to Afghanistan - help restore roads, help create new jobs in the IRA, and develop agriculture.

    They helped and helped, but there were no results either. And if the United States drug traffic was straddled, then only viral infection will help such agriculture.
  6. igor67
    igor67 15 November 2013 10: 47 New
    12
    I think that both the Soviet troops and the American troops had nothing to do in Afghanistan, all the Taliban and other Islamic movements are products of external occupation, even with well-intentioned ones, the country developed slowly, went through all stages of economic development, see if you can see in the photo whether it is possible now or in the future?
    1. Orik
      Orik 15 November 2013 11: 18 New
      -3
      Better let it be in a burqa, it hurts terribly ...
    2. ed65b
      ed65b 15 November 2013 13: 17 New
      +5
      The Taliban is a product of the United States but not the USSR.
      1. igor67
        igor67 15 November 2013 13: 38 New
        +4
        Quote: ed65b
        The Taliban is a product of the United States but not the USSR.

        I agree, but don’t send our troops in, maybe Afghanistan was developing differently, and not all the Central Control Committees were in favor of sending troops then, by the way, the Amers also didn’t give anything to the deployment of troops, full-fledged bases, I mean missile forces, they didn’t create
        1. ed65b
          ed65b 15 November 2013 16: 08 New
          +2
          Quote: igor67
          Quote: ed65b
          The Taliban is a product of the United States but not the USSR.

          I agree, but don’t send our troops in, maybe Afghanistan was developing differently, and not all the Central Control Committees were in favor of sending troops then, by the way, the Amers also didn’t give anything to the deployment of troops, full-fledged bases, I mean missile forces, they didn’t create

          However, it’s too late to ponder how it would be. what happened something happened. In any case, do not help the US bandits, do not create Al Qaeda on your head. the world would be cleaner and calmer. And Afghanistan is a prosperous state. The regime would gradually change. And the fact that they tuned shuravi would have remained.
        2. Rakti-kali
          Rakti-kali 15 November 2013 18: 03 New
          -1
          Quote: igor67
          don’t introduce our troops, maybe Afghanistan was developing differently

          Yes ... the USSR did not send troops into Pakistan, and they developed in a completely different way ...
      2. Ascetic
        Ascetic 15 November 2013 18: 18 New
        +2
        Quote: ed65b
        The Taliban is a product of the United States but not the USSR.



        At first there was no Taliban. Was "tsaranda" and dushmans-partisans who, in turn, are loyal (allegedly peaceful militias-self-defense) and irreconcilable.
        This is the typical appearance of the dushmans who are caught with weapons and are proudly escorted by a "Tsarandoevite" bacha. In the background are the famous barbukhaik trucks.
        The Taliban appeared in 1994. when the next civil war began there.
        Mullah Omar, who fought with us, gathered the same "veterans" in Kandahar, and also Pashtuns from Pakistani madrasahs joined them, and the whole gathering was supported directly by the Pakistani special services. In 1996. a gathering of Muslim theologians and teachers proclaimed Mullah Omar "the ruler of the faithful" and called for a holy war against the Kabul-based administration of President Rabbani. In September of the same year, the Taliban occupied Kabul and from that time until 2001 (before the American invasion) were actually in power in Afghanistan.
  7. tolyasik0577
    tolyasik0577 15 November 2013 11: 16 New
    +4
    Khan to Uzbeks, Tajiks, Kyrgyz and Turkmens. since the US entered Afghanistan, the attacks on the Moscow border post have calmed down. there was no time for them. will start again now. while Gaster in Russia, they know the taste of free life from Sharia. it’s they who are so gonosny here, give them Islam. as soon as we block free access to Russia, the peaceful life will end for them. they really can't write and read even in their own language. especially the younger generation.
    1. alone
      alone 15 November 2013 19: 38 New
      +1
      Quote: tolyasik0577
      Khan to Uzbeks, Tajiks, Kyrgyz and Turkmens. since the US entered Afghanistan, the attacks on the Moscow border post have calmed down. there was no time for them. will start again now. while Gaster in Russia, they know the taste of free life from Sharia.


      in general, in principle, if they go to Central Asia, then most likely the khan will be in Tajikistan. The Uzbek border passes through the Amu Darya. No one is interested in crossing the river. To get to the Kyrgyz, you need to go through Tajikistan. There were good relations with the Turkmens and Taliban then. that in any Tajikistan. it’s hard to have 201st. it’s necessary to strengthen it before it’s too late.
  8. igor67
    igor67 15 November 2013 11: 18 New
    +7
    And for those who thought that Afghanistan before the arrival of our troops in 79 was a clogged country (in principle, I thought so until I started looking for Afghanistan today) and that as soon as we built schools for them, it turns out that the country was developing normally, and again politics all poheri drove the country into the Middle Ages. In the picture Kabul University of Biology, end of the 60s.
    1. Kasym
      Kasym 15 November 2013 22: 35 New
      +2
      Igor67, you may wonder further - the staff, almost 100%, was prepared by the USSR. Even our teachers went there. There was no need to go in and quarrel with the whole Islamic world. If the Americans entered there, then Vietnam at number 2 would definitely get it. There, almost 100% of the population was very loyal to the USSR - they only argued why they are building and doing more for this or that region. Imagine, there were disputes between the tribes in this vein. Shuravi means something to them even now. Over a hundred large objects were built, including factories and factories (on this site someone already laid out a list of these objects, which there is nothing there, including power plants). hi
  9. igor67
    igor67 15 November 2013 11: 22 New
    +5
    In those days, men and women traveled in the same bus, even here in Israel, in the religious orthodox areas of Jerusalem, a woman still does not have the right to sit on the same bus with men, only from the back of the "accordion" trailer
    1. Yuri Y.
      Yuri Y. 15 November 2013 13: 54 New
      0
      Maybe politics would not poher the country if the USA did not provoke the Union to enter. And even more so, it did not cultivate Islamism, which it still does.
  10. svskor80
    svskor80 15 November 2013 11: 50 New
    0
    Persons in this system of trust do not inspire confidence. The Americans themselves are probably afraid of turning their backs on them.
    1. igor67
      igor67 15 November 2013 11: 57 New
      +1
      Quote: svskor80
      Persons in this system of trust do not inspire confidence. The Americans themselves are probably afraid of turning their backs on them.

      What are the Americans? Well this is the end of 60 x
  11. Alexandr0id
    Alexandr0id 15 November 2013 11: 57 New
    +1
    first the USSR, then the United States. 2 consecutive unmotivated interventions of the largest world powers in an impoverished country. For the Soviet intervention, Afghanistan "paid off" with millions of Russian heroin addicts, the Americans may also have some kind of boomerang, although they are far away.
    the Taliban and their allies will come to power there and let them, why, in fact, not?
    Will they trample north to Central Asia or east to Waziristan? Well, in Central Asia, and so darkness, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in their current form are completely untenable, if they did not dump their problems in Russia, then there would already be their own "Taliban" massively appeared. and as soon as Gaster from the Russian Federation will begin to be sent to their homeland en masse, it will happen.
    maybe the coming "Central Asian spring" will lead the region out of the post-Soviet swamp. at least some changes.
    and Waziristan and Swat are Pashtun territories, why don't they pick up theirs. is it a pity for pakistan so this absolutely artificial formation, like India, is the legacy of the colonial era.
    1. ed65b
      ed65b 15 November 2013 13: 21 New
      +1
      Quote: Alexandr0id
      like India, is the legacy of the colonial era.

      You respected there, next to the hemp field did not pass? Hindus are one of the oldest civilizations on earth, still retaining their identity. I dare to assure you when in Europe people still climbed trees in India, they built cities.
      1. Alexandr0id
        Alexandr0id 16 November 2013 01: 45 New
        +2
        Indians - what is this? Hindus on religion or Indo-Aryans on language? Hindu, Marathi, Tamils, Telugu, Rajputs, Gujars, Bengalis, Sikhs? there has never been such a state - India, this is a kind of collective (and external) expression for this subcontinent. many peoples in the present republic of india are almost only conditionally united, because for centuries had nothing in common. the uniting them at different times were their masters - the British, Mughals, Delhi Türks - Karluks and Khalajis, at times the same Afghans (Lods).
        there are now actually several centers - Hindustan (if I may say so) Delhi, Marathi Mumbai, Tamil Chennai. present-day India and Pakistan (from Bangladesh) - this is a conditional division of the subcontinent into Hindu and Muslim, not taking into account national, etc. features
        1. ale-x
          ale-x 20 November 2013 09: 37 New
          +1
          And the guy is prepared)))))) +
  12. volkodav
    volkodav 15 November 2013 12: 17 New
    0
    to return the border under the control of our border guards, or joint with Kazakhstan, you look and the traffic will be slightly blocked. I just imagine what kind of grandmothers were bought by drug dealers in Dushanbe in order to evict our border guards from the Tajik-Afghan border
    1. ed65b
      ed65b 15 November 2013 13: 23 New
      +2
      Quote: volkodav
      to return the border under the control of our border guards, or joint with Kazakhstan, you look and the traffic will be slightly blocked. I just imagine what kind of grandmothers were bought by drug dealers in Dushanbe in order to evict our border guards from the Tajik-Afghan border

      how do you imagine doing this? Hacking on the estate of drug dealer Rahmon? there the border is cut between the clans. All gerych flows from there.
  13. ed65b
    ed65b 15 November 2013 13: 25 New
    0
    Wait and see. Turkmen will pay off, Uzbek will fight back, and Tajik? Here is a headache. And how to cope with it along the way and the GDP does not know.
  14. EdwardTich68
    EdwardTich68 15 November 2013 13: 48 New
    +1
    At first, tens of thousands of private traders will be left in Kabul to control Karzai, as in Iraq. The rest of the country will certainly fall into chaos. They will do everything to get the CSTO there.
    1. alone
      alone 15 November 2013 19: 41 New
      0
      Quote: EdwardTich68
      The rest of the country will certainly fall into chaos.

      chaos is already there. in most NATO, it controls only its bases. During the day, Karzai has power, and at night the Taliban.
  15. voldmis
    voldmis 15 November 2013 21: 25 New
    0
    I'm afraid that "they only dream about peace."
  16. EdwardTich68
    EdwardTich68 15 November 2013 22: 11 New
    0
    They will officially withdraw their official troops as soon as possible (as sun as posible) and what remains
    will not be related to NATO hi
  17. SKVS
    SKVS 16 November 2013 05: 45 New
    +2
    The Americans will leave, the Taliban will return.
  18. individual
    individual 16 November 2013 08: 05 New
    0
    You should not expect anything good from the departure of American warriors from Afghanistan.
    Weapons and military equipment left by the states will be added to the explosive barrel of gunpowder of intertribal enmity, which will unleash a new round of confrontation incited by the special services and "advisers" of the State Department in the direction they need.
    In the southern underbelly of Russia, a large splinter is left to pull out, which is worth a lot of work. And you can’t stand it and for the treatment the prescription has not yet been written out.
  19. fon_Stierlitz
    fon_Stierlitz 18 November 2013 00: 20 New
    0
    in 2013, Afghanistan broke all records in opium production - the area of ​​illegal production (legal production for medical purposes) of opium increased by as much as 36% from January to October. It is noteworthy that the real leader here is Helmand province, where several ISAF military bases are located at once ... An interesting coincidence ...
    This is not a coincidence, it is a pattern. The indigenous population simply has nothing to eat and nothing to live on, because the entire agricultural system was destroyed by the Soviet troops during the war. After it, the whole country began to live off heroin exports, and no NATO members could just do this, because otherwise they would have to shoot every second, or even the first.
    And yes, the Taliban have never fought especially hard with drugs; you don’t have to mislead yourself.
    1. EdwardTich68
      EdwardTich68 18 November 2013 18: 05 New
      0
      The Taliban, on the contrary, took control of poppy cultivation, regulated the size of plantations
      and tax on them. Under their rule, the population was disarmed and the number of plantations was 30 times less.