Military Review

Saudi Arabia - United States. Objective causes of conflict

40

Speaking of disagreements between the United States and Saudi Arabia, which last year went from the latent to an open form and even conflict, we need to ignore the current situation and try to understand whether these differences are of a tactical nature or they have the character of deeper faults.


Relations between Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies as a whole with the West and the United States carry several dimensions, each of which is self-sufficient and at the same time intertwined with the others.

Economy

The Achilles heel of all the "six" countries is the mono-commodity of their economy. The development of the oil industry of each of the monarchies followed roughly the same path - by donating oil-bearing areas in concession to foreign companies, the Gulf countries received developed oil production and transportation infrastructure in exchange for not very favorable conditions for concessions. Subsequently, all monarchies gradually bought out the shares of foreigners and concentrated in the state hands the oil industries of their countries. Subsequently, the participation of foreign companies helped the "six" countries to modernize the oil industry and maintain it at a high technological level.

This process was inextricably linked with the uninterrupted supply of oil to Western markets, which was an indispensable condition for the cooperation of the West and the United States with the Gulf countries. Monarchies were interested in a dynamic increase in oil prices, but this inevitably led to higher prices for all imports — the mono-commodity economy did not produce almost anything, including food, in necessary quantities. Gradually, a balance of prices emerged, which was supported by both economic and purely political methods.

The first three five-year development plans of Saudi Arabia 70-85 of the last century were mainly devoted to the development and modernization of the oil industry. The fourth to sixth five-year plans (85-2000) launched the processes of diversification and development of non-oil sectors of the economy. Industrial zones were established in Dhahran, Yanbo, Jeddah and Jubayla, which gradually became the multi-industrial centers of the Kingdom.

Naturally, priority attention was paid to the petrochemical industry with high degrees of redistribution. State "Saudi Arabian Basic Industry Corp." (SABIKO) produces about 50 product names. Petrochemical exports account for more than 10% of GDP. Moreover, if Saudi Arabia restrains the pace of oil production to maintain prices, the output of non-oil sectors increases production. SABIKO together with the monopolist in the oil industry of ARAMCO are subordinate to the Supreme Petroleum Council and parallel to the Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources.

It is worth noting that the export of petrochemical products is very much focused on the Asia-Pacific region - it accounts for almost 60% of total exports. 20% of exports go to the Near and Middle East, and to the countries of Africa - more than the EU and the US together (about 10%)

The second largest non-oil industry in Saudi Arabia has become the electric power industry, which is managed by the Ministry of Water Resources and Electric Power Industry. Already at the beginning of the fourth five-year development period, the Kingdom switched to self-sufficiency, but so far the introduction of new capacities only slightly surpasses the needs of the country. This suggests that Saudi Arabia does not consider the electric power industry as an export industry, but develops it exclusively for domestic purposes. The desalination industry is developing in much the same way — there is no plan to sell water for export. Saudi State Electricity Company (SEC) is a monopolist in the market.

The gas industry of Saudi Arabia is focused on associated gas, which is more than 60% of all available reserves. Gas production is growing rapidly - in 15 years, having almost doubled to 80 billion cubic meters per year. All gas produced goes to domestic consumption. However, before 2030, it is planned to invest about 20 billion dollars in the gas industry and increase its production by another half - while again, focusing solely on domestic consumption.

What is characteristic is that the king of Saudi Arabia is personally involved in coordinating the management of these five key sectors and the planning of their activities through two key ministries and the Supreme Petroleum Council.

In general, the economy of Saudi Arabia developed until recently in a completely predictable way - export trade in oil and refined products with self-sufficiency in available natural resources and energy. Dependence on food from imports is considered as an inevitable payment for the development of other industries - although originally, the development of agriculture was considered as one of the priority tasks. As a result, these plans were adjusted, and food security was considered in terms of self-sufficiency in wheat, dates and poultry meat. The rest of the products are produced by the Kingdom in about half of the existing need, covering the lack of their imports.

At the same time, the self-sufficiency of Saudi Arabia with food compared to other monarchies looks more than weighty - the same Bahrain is almost completely deprived of food security and is not capable of providing itself with any of the most significant products, even fish.

Nevertheless, with all the achievements of economic development, all that has been said indicates that dependence on oil trade for Saudi Arabia remains absolute - the implementation of nine five-year plans has not been able to create a sustainable economy that can compensate for possible problems in the oil market. And these problems began to be denoted - the shale boom in the United States, which coincided with the global crisis and recession, put Saudi Arabia in a difficult position, forcing it to focus on new markets. At the same time, it is worth noting that the US market is already “collapsing” gradually for Saudi Arabia - the two leading industries export 20% oil and 7% petrochemical products to North America.

The three leading markets for oil in Saudi Arabia are Asia Pacific (about 60% of total exports), the USA (about 20%) and Europe (about 10%). The Chinese market is of the greatest interest, however, the redistribution of oil flows is possible only with tougher conditions and lower prices - which is a serious problem for the Kingdom.

It is possible to talk about the dependence of Saudi Arabia on the American market - but the main danger is not the volume of export reduction, but the dynamics of “collapse”. It is now a painful process associated with a faster reduction in exports to Europe and America, than Saudi Arabia has time to compensate for their access to other markets.

China can go on maintaining the current conditions on prices, but only if the counter conditions are met - providing favorable conditions for investing in the Saudi economy and entering new levels of military-technical cooperation to level the trade balance. This inevitably creates a conflict in Saudi Arabia-US and Saudi Arabia-China vapors over another set of problems - ensuring regional security and Saudi Arabia’s dependence on military-technical cooperation with the United States.

(The data are taken from the reports "Saudi Arabia Fuel and Energy Complex: Status and Prospects for the Development of Cooperation with the Russian Federation" 2011 g, monograph by IA Aleksandrov "Persian Gulf monarchies. Modernization stage", news agency reports)


The problems of external security of Saudi Arabia at the present stage can be considered from the moment that Harold Wilson’s government abandoned its military presence in the Middle East region in the 60-70 years.

Saudi Arabia took this decision very painfully, as England ensured the smoothing of problems between the Arabian monarchies, as well as the expansionist sentiments of Iraq and Shah Iran. This historical the period was marked by a sharp start to secular development projects in most of the Arab countries and the Middle East, the monarchical regimes of the Gulf against their background looked archaic and could not oppose these projects with any adequate answer.

The bipolar nature of the world order did not leave Saudi Arabia a choice - it could only focus on the United States as an adequate replacement for England that had left the region. Similar problems were experienced by the rest of the Arabian Six countries. In the end, a solution was found to suit everyone - creating a network of US military bases that did not allow the situation to go out of control and not bring the confrontation both within the "six" and between it and Iran and Iraq to an open conflict.

At the same time, there were several levels of security problems (the well-known researcher of the Gulf countries I.A.Andandrov calls them "tiers").

The first level is conflicts between the countries of the "six" themselves. These include the territorial problems of Bahrain and Qatar due to the Hawar archipelago and the northern part of Qatar Zubara. There are problems between Qatar and Saudi Arabia behind the Hofuz oasis bordering the United Arab Emirates. There were also less significant territorial disputes between the UAE, KSA and Oman. Despite the fact that they were talking about small territories, all of them were located in oil and gas regions, and the cost of the issue in each dispute could reach tens of billions of dollars.

The second level had much more serious security threats. This is the level of problems with Iraq and Iran. The desire for the annexation of Bahrain was also characteristic of Shah's Iran, which was reinforced by the origin of the Shiite majority and their kinship with Iran and the Shiite south of Iraq.

The Shiites of the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia do not have such blood ties and are not willing to exchange the relatively stable income from work in the oil fields for political freedom and independence, but the Iranian presence in this province has always been a headache for Saudi special services. Another territorial problem between Saudi Arabia and Yemen was due to the presence of a Shiite majority in the disputed region of Asher, which Saudi Arabia rented and eventually bought out from the Yemeni imams.

Kuwait has always been threatened by the Iraqi invasion, which considered unfair borders and the very existence of Kuwait as an independent state.

Oman had very difficult problems with pro-Soviet South Yemen in connection with the Dofar conflict, where he fought against the radical left Front for the Liberation of Dhofar, whose fighters were trained in one of the Soviet training centers near Simferopol. This level of security problems was confronting the USSR and the USA - and here Oman was directly interested in cooperation with the USA.

The United States eventually created the Gulf security system, in which they did not so much oppose the Soviet Union, but were forced to smooth out the contradictions between the countries of the region, with each of which they cooperated to some extent. At the same time, the United States relied on the Shah's regime, to which they assigned the role of "gendarme of the region." Shah responded with real action - by entering a contingent of 1972 in Oman in 10, thousands of people to suppress the dophar insurgency. The "six" countries in this system occupied a subordinate position, and the system itself was called the "one and a half pillars", where half was Saudi Arabia and the whole pillar was Iran.

The 1979 revolution in Iran objectively hit US interests in the region and forced them to make a choice between Iraq and Saudi Arabia. The Iran-Iraq war, unsuccessful in its consequences, convinced the United States of the incapacity of the Saddam Hussein regime as a regional leader. This largely predetermined the future Iraqi war and the “Storm in the Desert”, which were practically provoked by the United States itself, which inspired certain hopes for a favorable outcome for Iraq in the event of the occupation of Kuwait.

Saudi Arabia remained the only possible contender for leadership in the region under the umbrella of the United States - which resulted in a strategic partnership.

Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia could not become a full-fledged replacement for Iran - its development convinced the United States of the impossibility of creating a full-fledged industrial economy in the Kingdom capable of adequately competing with industrialized Iran, which showed steady growth even under blockade and sanctions.

The collapse of the Republican policy during the Iraq war forced a new democratic administration to think about leaving the region, which required exorbitant costs. The US economy could not bear such enormous costs to achieve unobvious results. The logic of the new policy was initially based on the destruction of the existing stable balance of forces in the region through large-scale “color revolutions”, during which moderate Islamist governments came to power, seeking to implement a new pan-Arab project, but no longer on romantic-socialist and nationalist slogans, but on the Islamist cosmopolitan ideology, which Obama found more natural and suitable for the civilizational essence of the Middle East.

The implementation of such a pan-Arab project was to compensate for the dependence of Saudi Arabia on direct US military assistance in the confrontation with Iran. The US withdrawal from the region would be accompanied by the transfer of territories under the control of the new Islamist governments, which were to create a buffer between Shiite Iran and Iraq and Saudi Arabia. The needs of new Islamist governments in ensuring their security were guaranteed by multi-billion contracts with the US military-industrial complex, which could help in restarting the crisis-weakened US industry. Government support for the “shale revolution” reduced the dependence of the United States on hydrocarbon supplies from the Middle East and made the positions of Saudi Arabia and its lobby in the United States less significant.

As a result, this policy worked in the second component - the “shale boom” really gave the desired result, but the bet on moderate Islamists did not. An additional, but extremely serious problem for Obama’s plans was stiff resistance to Syria and the explosive growth in the number of radical Islamist militant groups.

Here an objective reason arose for creating a rift in relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States - for the Kingdom, ending the war in Syria with the beginning of US withdrawal from the region and reducing their dependence on oil supplies inevitably leads to the transfer of this war to the perimeter of the Arabian Peninsula as an inevitable consequence of victory Iran The United States, on the contrary, has room for maneuver, which they took advantage of.

The course towards rapprochement with Iran returns the United States to a relatively comfortable situation for them at the beginning and middle of 70 of the last century. The revolutionary fervor of Iran has been replaced by a more sober look at the situation, and although the United States will remain the enemy of the theocratic regime in the foreseeable future, it is fully capable of guaranteeing the security of the region in the absence of the United States. True, in this case the task is complicated by the fact that Iran needs to distance itself as far as possible from Chinese expansion, since the United States does not see the slightest sense to leave the region and allow China to enter there - and here the positions of Republicans and Democrats coincide completely.

That is why in the current situation the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia is objectively beneficial to the United States. This conflict will create problems for the interests of China, which will be forced to solve an extremely nontrivial task for itself - either to become the guarantor of the region’s security, or intervene in the conflict on the side of one of the opponents, or generally stay away from it, limiting its presence in the region until the conflict ends .

The Chinese military-political doctrine does not consider the situation of its dominance in the zones of potential conflicts, so the first and second versions of China’s reaction seem extremely unlikely, which is quite satisfactory for Obama and makes the situation very predictable.

This also creates enormous problems for Saudi Arabia, which loses the “umbrella” of the United States, and the only hope for ensuring its security remains the active financing of troops and groupings of a radical Sunni orientation with the continuation of the war in Syria and Iraq.

This situation is very beneficial for the United States. They can allow the Kingdom to continue the war until a crisis in the transfer of power in Saudi Arabia itself. If necessary, these problems can be initiated at any suitable moment. Clan contradictions and exacerbation of social problems in the Kingdom will allow the transfer of control of the oil-bearing Eastern province to the US-controlled clan or clan bloc. Their security can be ensured by minimally strengthening the already existing bases in Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman. Perhaps one of the conditions for non-interference in the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia will be the inviolability of American bases in any regime change in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.

Thus, the United States will not allow China to penetrate the most important provinces of present-day Saudi Arabia, and the creation of a "Shiite corridor" will allow orient Iran in a European direction - safer than Pakistan’s corridor in the direction of China.

Saudi Arabia in the current situation is becoming for the United States a tool for reformatting the region, which will ensure its greater security. In this case, China will not be able to strengthen its presence in it, which is also an important element in the development of the situation.

Nevertheless, for the United States there is one extremely difficult task, the solution of which depends on the participation in this new security system of another player in the region - Israel. This task is Iran’s nuclear program.

Today, its peaceful nature is beyond doubt. The absence of a number of critical industries and the uranium (and therefore militarily dead-end) orientation of the nuclear program make it possible to confidently assume its non-military development in the near future. But to guarantee a sharp increase of this program and its exit to another level in the medium term, of course, no one can. Even Iran itself. Today it is very difficult to imagine the configuration that will emerge in the event of the collapse of Saudi Arabia. Therefore, the issue of the focus of Iran’s nuclear program, of course, must be guaranteed to be solved now. By the way, it is in Russian interests.

Therefore, the launch of the US policy towards Iran is due to two fundamental factors - the outcome of the peace conference in Geneva and the outcome of the negotiations with Iran in the "6 + 1" format. The speed with which the United States is trying to solve these two difficult tasks indicates that they are extremely interested in launching a new policy. Actually, the fate of Saudi Arabia depends on it - and the Saudis are doing everything possible to disrupt the peace conference in Geneva, which will delay the inevitable.
Author:
Originator:
http://el-murid.livejournal.com/
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  1. alone
    alone 9 November 2013 16: 17
    13
    The reason for the conflict is negotiations between the United States and Iran. And the fact that the Americans did not hit Syria.

    if you think about it, it's just a political game.
    1. Civil
      Civil 9 November 2013 16: 35
      +5
      Judging by the press, the Saudis will be swaying soon, probably because the US is again an exporter of resources. Preserve oil by conflict is 5.
      1. mirag2
        mirag2 9 November 2013 17: 51
        +8
        Have you heard anything about our base in Egypt?
        Like the Americans give Egypt money ("X"), and Egypt provides government support to American companies - 4x "X" - four times more than the US gives Egypt money.
        And what is the task of the United States-supplying weapons to Egypt to keep his army a few steps behind Israel.
        And Kerry here the other day the whole Middle East crawled out of Cairo to Jordan, from Jordan to Israel, to Saudi Arabia, and again to Israel ...
        And then we agreed to build a nuclear power plant in Jordan, because Jordan receives 97% of its energy from imports ...
        And Jordan, unlike Saudi Arabia, has not refused membership in the UN Security Council.
        Purely facts for consideration.
      2. Geisenberg
        Geisenberg 9 November 2013 18: 42
        +4
        Quote: Civil
        Judging by the press, the Saudis will be swaying soon, probably because the US is again an exporter of resources. Preserve oil by conflict is 5.


        It would be even better to preserve Saudi oil in a nuclear desert ... 10 I think right away ...
        1. Sergh
          Sergh 10 November 2013 17: 27
          +3
          ATTENTION TO ALL!
          The cunning infa came from Syria, but you better see for yourself ..., from 4:00 a.m.



          However, some people 08.08.08. teaches nothing sadly!
      3. a52333
        a52333 9 November 2013 18: 44
        +4
        Quote: Civil
        Judging by the press, the Saudis will soon reel
        AHA, a great indicator. Now we need to watch for changes in the rhetoric of the US press.
      4. The comment was deleted.
    2. Geisenberg
      Geisenberg 9 November 2013 18: 40
      +4
      Quote: lonely
      if you think about it, it's just a political game.


      Well, if such a thing, then we are all calm ... all that is just a world-wide warcraft ...
    3. APES
      APES 9 November 2013 19: 40
      +2
      Quote: lonely
      Cause


      in complete distrust of each other - all against all

      but it’s good, it says only that SOMETHING finally decided to punish - depriving the mind
    4. ayyildiz
      ayyildiz 9 November 2013 20: 15
      +3
      Saudi Arabia has demanded permanent membership in the UN Security Council after the recent abandonment of its seat on an intermittent basis, Al Arabia television channel reported on Saturday.

      In October of this year, Saudi Arabia was first elected by the General Assembly as a member country of the Security Council for the 2014-2015 years, after which its government announced its abandonment of its seat, believing that the organization’s reforms were not being carried out properly and its work was extremely inefficient.

      The requirement to become a permanent member of the UN was voiced by the Ambassador of Saudi Arabia to the UN, Abdullah al-Moulimi, who noted that representatives of the Security Council cannot cope with problems in the Middle East. The official also criticized the UN Security Council decision system due to veto rights of five major member countries
    5. GSH-18
      GSH-18 9 November 2013 20: 26
      +3
      Quote: lonely
      the fact that the Americans did not hit Syria.

      Rather, the Americans set up the Saudis, and thereby made them fools. And for monarchical regimes it is worse than a slap in the face!
      1. Thunderbolt
        Thunderbolt 9 November 2013 20: 47
        +3
        Americans hit Syria. Remember Obama's summer statement that the White House will act on the Syrian issueindirect methodsBut now what? The massacre continues, strategic weapons are knocked out of Assad’s hands, the information field is flooded with fables about how the US quarreled with the Saudis. And this is in anticipation of a large offensive of masked women. It's not a war, it's a reality of 21 centuries and
    6. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 9 November 2013 20: 45
      +4
      Quote: lonely
      The reason for the conflict is negotiations between the United States and Iran. And the fact that the Americans did not hit Syria. If you think this is just a political game.

      And these are two very significant reasons. The scenario described in the article is possible, but extremely unlikely. It can be called a good mine with a bad game. The United States is losing this region and this is objective. But what is the United States without the Middle East and petrodollar?

      The most important question is whether the war between Shiites and Sunnis in Syria will end or spread to the entire Middle East. If it ends, then the described scenario is possible. Hence the bustle of the State Department, they go and persuade the Sunni governments to cut off the air for Nusrit. If it does not succeed, then the United States wants to have time to get out of the region so that they are not hit. Since the United States has no forces for such a big mess.
      In any scenario, US influence in the region falls.

      And the most important question is what to do with Israel? If Shiites and Sunnis can come to an agreement and stop fanning the fire of war, then where are the tens of thousands of militants who got drunk blood? Israel is the obvious place to stay.
      1. Botanologist
        Botanologist 9 November 2013 22: 08
        +1
        Quote: Gluxar_
        And the most important question is what to do with Israel?


        The most important question is what will happen to the petrodollar when the Saudis remain in the role of an abandoned woman. And, it seems, the Americans are ready to reformat the world economy, and therefore they are leaving BV. Therefore, we are waiting for the Gulf War, the default of the United States and the rejection of the current green papers. Any other color will appear.
        Cheerful geopolitics wink
    7. 755962
      755962 10 November 2013 21: 17
      0
      The real reason why Saudis drift away from the US
      Saudi Arabia warned of a drift away from the United States.

      Here's the real reason: China has just overthrown the United States as the largest importer of oil.

      Writes Oil Price (English):

      Last month, the world witnessed a paradigm shift: China surpassed the United States as the world's largest consumer of foreign oil by importing 6,3 million barrels per day compared with US imports of 6,24 million barrels. According to the US Energy Information Administration, this trend is likely to continue, and the gap will widen. Consulting firm Wood Mackenzie reiterates this forecast, believing that Chinese oil imports will grow by 2020 to 9,3 million barrels (70 percent of total demand).



      http://mixednews.ru/archives/43419
  2. Migari
    Migari 9 November 2013 16: 28
    0
    The USA in the region pursues its far-reaching policy, and its six in the region wanted to crank up their plans, this is not a coincidence and caused resentment and hysteria.

    This situation is very beneficial for the United States.
    Divide and conquer, doing the dirty work with the wrong hands.
    1. SAG
      SAG 9 November 2013 19: 59
      +4
      There is no hysteria there, everything is natural. The United States intentionally turned its back on the Saudis and turned to Iran, so that in the event of a major regional war, it would supply both sides with arms and thereby break the economic deadlock into which they had climbed.
      The time of the shale revolution has been chosen correctly; the USA has already switched to self-sufficiency. According to experts, shale oil is enough for them until 2018. The resources for conducting a global war in Iran are three years old (well, or the United States will open the 3rd front to collect cream, as they know how).
      Therefore, the beginning of the global Eastern conflict is scheduled for the end of 2014 and the beginning of 2015. The Saudis are already too actively arming themselves (hundreds of tanks, submarines, aircraft) IMHO
      1. Gluxar_
        Gluxar_ 9 November 2013 20: 50
        +1
        Quote: SAG
        There is no hysteria there, everything is natural. The United States intentionally turned its back on the Saudis and turned to Iran, so that in the event of a major regional war, it would supply both sides with arms and thereby break the economic deadlock into which they had climbed. The time of the shale revolution has been chosen correctly; the USA has already switched to self-sufficiency. According to experts, shale oil is enough for them until 2018. The resources for conducting a global war in Iran are three years old (well, or the United States will open the 3rd front to collect cream, as they know how). Therefore, the beginning of the global Eastern conflict is scheduled for the end of 2014 and the beginning of 2015. The Saudis are already too actively arming themselves (hundreds of tanks, submarines, aircraft) IMHO

        The US has no power to control such a process. All their moves are aimed at at least somehow getting out of the pit into which they drove themselves. They lose Iraq, lose Egypt, lost Libya and Syria. They only have Israel, but it causes them too many problems.
        1. Legioner
          Legioner 10 November 2013 01: 56
          +4
          In order to play in a new and according to your own rules, you need to re-mix the deck and deal cards with one trump card in your hands.
          What we are now seeing is that the east is being shaken to reorganize the region and, quite possibly, peace on the planet. I think we will soon see a change in the borders of existing countries, and maybe the end of the "existence" of these countries, and the emergence of new ones.
          PS: Uh, I have the impression that they are trying to get by with as little and limited forces as possible, and, if possible, do with "someone else's hands" and resources to weaken the region, and then ...
          1. Sterlya
            Sterlya 11 November 2013 02: 58
            0
            Quote: Legioner
            In order to play in a new and according to your own rules, you need to re-mix the deck and deal cards with one trump card in your hands.
            What we are now seeing is that the east is being shaken to reorganize the region and, quite possibly, peace on the planet. I think we will soon see a change in the borders of existing countries, and maybe the end of the "existence" of these countries, and the emergence of new ones.
            PS: Uh, I have the impression that they are trying to get by with as little and limited forces as possible, and, if possible, do with "someone else's hands" and resources to weaken the region, and then ...


            found reflection of my opinion. And the task of Russia to defend Syria. The rest is little interesting and unpromising. That's when the deck shuffles and the cards are dealt out again. then it will be seen ....
            1. Legioner
              Legioner 11 November 2013 14: 52
              0
              As for the futility, I completely disagree with you, because such countries as Iraq, Libya practically no longer exist, one formality is where Tunisia is now and what is happening in Egypt and Syria, I think everyone knows, Iran is not far off.
              And everyone clearly sees the imperial ambitions of Turkey, so recently the Prime Minister of Turkey said that: "Kosovo is Turkey, and Turkey is Kosovo." The Prime Minister also added that the two countries - Kosovo and Turkey share the same history and civilization ”, if we continue to speak in this way, it turns out that the“ Crimea ”square is a part of Turkey, because as far as is known that Turkey or The "Ottoman Empire" concluded a peace treaty with Russia or the "Russian Empire", but about Ukraine this is an open question, with all the ensuing consequences.
      2. Botanologist
        Botanologist 9 November 2013 22: 12
        +1
        Quote: SAG
        Therefore, the beginning of the global Eastern conflict is scheduled for the end of 2014 - the beginning of 2015.


        + rightly wrote. Only
        Quote: SAG
        so that in the event of a regional big war, equip both sides with arms and thereby break the economic deadlock,
        - this is not a reason, this is a slight pleasant bonus. Leaving BV will allow the United States to break the economic impasse much easier - by devaluing the dollar or abandoning it. All in all, you need to stop building up debt - and a week will not pass, when the greenbacks from the bucks come into fashion (inexpensive and original).
  3. makarov
    makarov 9 November 2013 16: 34
    +8
    The Saudis must reap the troubles they sowed! And it will be fair.
    1. Kirzhak
      Kirzhak 9 November 2013 16: 48
      +3
      I agree! In recent decades, the Saudis, thanks to petrodollars and US support, have done what they wanted. And now, even they are not immune from the "Arab Spring".
      1. avg
        avg 9 November 2013 17: 42
        +4
        The Saudis, thanks to petrodollars and US support, did whatever they wanted. And now, even they are not immune from the "Arab Spring".

        Smoothly turning into "Russian winter". lol
    2. knn54
      knn54 9 November 2013 18: 31
      +8
      -makarov: The Saudis must reap the troubles they sowed!
      THE FINAL Aim of the Yankees is to overthrow not Hussein, Mubarak, Gaddafi, Assad, but to change the (so far invulnerable) Saudi regime, and put anyone in the place of the ruling dynasty, if only it would completely depend on the United States. The Americans are slowly getting closer to their "sworn ally" and in the future the CA will also destabilize, while taking control of various Islamic movements that are directly tied to Saudi Arabia. The Saudis, it seems, began to understand this ...
      1. mountain
        mountain 9 November 2013 20: 31
        +3
        Late Saudovtsi, this is understood. Why pay when you can just take what the states want. And the Saudis in their region should have less gavnil. Allah will not help them already.
      2. Sour
        Sour 10 November 2013 16: 36
        +2
        Quote: knn54
        The Americans are slowly getting closer to their "sworn ally"

        I do not think so.
        Slowly, we didn’t pick it up. A turn in US Middle East politics is a fairly new thing. In Libya, the United States was in solidarity with the Saudis. But in Syria, not really. And negotiations with Iran are not accidental, although six months ago no one could even think about it. This is a new phenomenon, not an old one. But it is not a fact that this tendency will be fixed in the event that Republicans come to power.
  4. andrei332809
    andrei332809 9 November 2013 16: 42
    +4
    No, well, in principle, the Saudis can understand-who feeds the girl, he dances. and the Yankees, like an old prostitute, takes money, but there is not enough health to complete the work.
  5. 10kAzAk01
    10kAzAk01 9 November 2013 18: 26
    +4
    MOSCOW, Nov 9 - RIA Novosti. Saudi Arabia has demanded permanent membership in the UN Security Council after the recent abandonment of its seat on an intermittent basis, Al Arabia television channel reported on Saturday.

    SNOW !!!
    1. Dimy4
      Dimy4 9 November 2013 19: 28
      +6
      I do not exclude that the enmity of the Saudis with the USA is a complete show.
  6. BBM
    BBM 9 November 2013 18: 54
    +3
    Murid again inflates the bubbles. What nr shale boom ???????? are you in your mind human ???
  7. The comment was deleted.
  8. Backfire
    Backfire 9 November 2013 19: 28
    +7
    The article is just awesome.
    The author has a respect and respect.
    Clear presentation and good analysis. Bravo, fat plus.
  9. Arkan
    Arkan 9 November 2013 19: 56
    +1
    "Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia could not become a full-fledged replacement for Iran - its development convinced the United States of the impossibility of creating a full-fledged industrial economy on the territory of the Kingdom, capable of adequately competing with the industrially developed Iran, which demonstrated steady growth even under the blockade and sanctions."

    Where does the author of the article say that Americans need a CA with a developed, multifaceted economy? The United States already has such a partner in this region.
    1. Botanologist
      Botanologist 9 November 2013 22: 14
      +2
      Quote: Arkan
      The United States already has such a partner in this region.


      The point is from him, if petrodollars stay at the expense of CA oil.
      1. Arkan
        Arkan 10 November 2013 13: 19
        0
        "Cutlets" separately, "flies" separately.
  10. The comment was deleted.
    1. GELEZNII_KAPUT
      GELEZNII_KAPUT 9 November 2013 20: 22
      +1
      Are you hinting at Turkey? I would say that Turkey and the SA can pull Iran, only jointly, but I'm afraid this is from the realm of fantasy. hi
      1. ayyildiz
        ayyildiz 9 November 2013 20: 34
        0
        Quote: GELEZNII_KAPUT
        I would say that Turkey and the SA can pull Iran, only jointly, but I'm afraid this is from the realm of fantasy.


        What ?????????????????
        1. GELEZNII_KAPUT
          GELEZNII_KAPUT 10 November 2013 15: 09
          0
          What ?????????????????

          Already nothing, the first comment was deleted. There is nothing to discuss accordingly.
      2. Arkan
        Arkan 10 November 2013 13: 12
        +2
        Israel is an economically developed partner of the United States, others do not count.
  11. individual
    individual 9 November 2013 21: 34
    +2
    Quote:
    “The speed with which the United States is trying to resolve these two difficult tasks suggests that it is extremely interested in launching a new policy. In fact, the fate of Saudi Arabia depends on it - and the Saudis are doing everything possible to disrupt the peace conference in Geneva, which delay the inevitable. "

    The mysterious "inevitable" makes an intrigue and awaits its resolution in the near future.
    Politics, like physics, does not tolerate voids, but who and what fills it depends on Russia, China and the USA. The rest are extras, but with a strong supply of petrodollars $$$.
    1. Grbear
      Grbear 9 November 2013 22: 19
      +2
      It takes time and people for Money to start shooting. The Six has neither one nor the other, and there are more than enough "friends" - at all levels.

      The dilemma: being honest is not profitable, and it is dangerous for the rich, but for the little ones. How can a "poor" Arab live?
      1. a52333
        a52333 10 November 2013 08: 11
        +2
        Poor and unhappy. To graze camels, and not to think about regional domination.
  12. WIN969
    WIN969 9 November 2013 22: 04
    +1
    Yankees always throw those who stop to bring them benefits. The main thing is that Iran would not turn away from us, for green pieces of paper.
  13. VadimSt
    VadimSt 9 November 2013 22: 40
    +2
    Politics, like the world in general, does not exist in one dimension! It is a pity that the author focuses on the obvious "seemingly for everyone" split and does not try to drip from the other side - it is possible that everyone is allowed to "see" exactly what is required! Who guarantees that this is not an agreed plan of action, one of the goals of which is disinformation of the world community?
  14. Valery Neonov
    Valery Neonov 10 November 2013 00: 07
    +1
    Quote: individ
    Politics, like physics, does not tolerate voids, but who and what fills it depends on Russia, China and the USA. Other extras

    Rather, bargaining chips. hi
  15. klavyr
    klavyr 10 November 2013 00: 10
    0
    once again the words of Comrade Sukhova: "... the East is a delicate matter ..." there are nuances everywhere (as in that anecdote laughing )
  16. Rus2012
    Rus2012 10 November 2013 01: 25
    +2
    Meanwhile, the Saudis have deployed up to a dozen CSS-2 RSDs (DongFeng 3, an analogue of the Soviet R-14 Chusovaya missile) in the al-Watan area southwest of the Saudi Arabian capital of Riyadh. And perhaps they bought atomic warheads for them from Pakistan, since they were in a share in the development.
    Because they feel confident.

    Without these blocks, these carriers are worthless ...

  17. Alexha
    Alexha 10 November 2013 07: 14
    +4
    "Saudi Arabia - USA" sounds like "Haberdasher and Cardinal is Power!"
    1. Thunderbolt
      Thunderbolt 10 November 2013 07: 25
      +1
      I join)))) HA-HA laughing
  18. biglow
    biglow 10 November 2013 09: 14
    +2
    We look forward to infringement of the rights of minorities in the SA and the seeds of democracy
    1. atalef
      atalef 10 November 2013 09: 25
      0
      Quote: biglow
      We look forward to infringement of the rights of minorities in the SA and the seeds of democracy

      CA is not real, for the reason
      Crimes involving the death penalty in Saudi Arabia include:

      Intentional killing;
      Homosexuality [3]
      Armed robbery;
      Extramarital or premarital C.E.C. [source not specified 276 days];
      Sexual rape or violence
      Religious apostasy;
      Smuggling, trafficking, possession and use of drugs;
      Organization of opposition groups to the authorities[source not specified 276 days]

      As you can see, one and the other are executed --- that's why everything is calm. laughing
  19. atalef
    atalef 10 November 2013 09: 24
    +1
    Quote: biglow
    We look forward to infringement of the rights of minorities in the SA and the seeds of democracy

    CA is not real, for the reason
    Crimes involving the death penalty in Saudi Arabia include:

    Intentional killing;
    Homosexuality [3]
    Armed robbery;
    Extramarital or premarital C.E.C. [source not specified 276 days];
    Sexual rape or violence
    Religious apostasy;
    Smuggling, trafficking, possession and use of drugs;
    Organization of opposition groups to the authorities[source not specified 276 days]

    As you can see, one and the other are executed --- that's why everything is calm. laughing
  20. Stinger
    Stinger 10 November 2013 11: 04
    +3
    Complicated story. But, as Venya Erofeev said: Why should I root for the Arabs? No Arab has ever hung over me.
  21. kartalovkolya
    kartalovkolya 10 November 2013 12: 54
    +3
    Odd things are your Lord: well, no further than at the beginning of the last century these camel drivers bought kerosene in Soviet Russia and on you — they determine world politics (or rather try), you look at all the sheikhs, kings, etc. and so on. Straight 1001 nights.
  22. MIKHAN
    MIKHAN 10 November 2013 15: 25
    +2
    Israel on the map (above the article) searched for a long time .. Found))) And Qatar is a pimple ... wassat As they say the smaller the shitier ..))))
  23. Sergey Medvedev
    Sergey Medvedev 10 November 2013 16: 35
    0
    The author claims that the United States began to merge the Saudis, but did not disclose the topic of petrodollar. After all, the Saudis can respond with the liquidation of the petrodollar and the creation of an oil euro, an oil yuan or some other oil ... With the involvement of the relevant interested party. But such a substitution of the United States in the Middle East is not yet visible. So bluff, I think.
    1. Sour
      Sour 10 November 2013 16: 43
      0
      Quote: Sergei Medvedev
      But such a substitution of the United States in the Middle East is not yet visible. So bluff, I think.

      Do not rush to conclusions.
      And do not forget that no matter how the US economy depends on Saudi oil, the Saudi economy depends on the US a thousand times more. If not a million. Here is China, which is more dependent on the import of raw materials than the Americans. But its economy is also less vulnerable than the Saudi. "The Saudis can answer" ... but they can’t do it.
  24. Savva30
    Savva30 10 November 2013 19: 27
    0
    In general, the economy of Saudi Arabia developed until recently in a completely predictable way - export trade in oil and refined products with self-sufficiency in available natural resources and energy. Dependence on food from imports is considered as an inevitable payment for the development of other industries - although originally, the development of agriculture was considered as one of the priority tasks. As a result, these plans were adjusted, and food security was considered in terms of self-sufficiency in wheat, dates and poultry meat. The rest of the products are produced by the Kingdom in about half of the existing need, covering the lack of their imports.
    At the same time, the self-sufficiency of Saudi Arabia with food compared to other monarchies looks more than weighty - the same Bahrain is almost completely deprived of food security and is not capable of providing itself with any of the most significant products, even fish.

    familiar song...
  25. sxn278619
    sxn278619 10 November 2013 22: 59
    0
    And do not forget that no matter how much the US economy depends on Saudi oil, the Saudi economy depends on the United States a thousand times more .quote]
    And what does it depend on? China will provide imports quite
    1. Sterlya
      Sterlya 11 November 2013 03: 09
      0
      Quote: sxn278619
      And do not forget that no matter how much the US economy depends on Saudi oil, the Saudi economy depends on the United States a thousand times more .quote]
      And what does it depend on? China will provide imports quite

      I agree. China will fully provide. and cost less. amersky everything is expensive. and a good place is never empty