Military Review

Pacific frontier: Chinese "fortress"

74
Pacific frontier: Chinese "fortress"

Over the past two decades, China has amazed the world with its successes in the field of astronautics, economics, military affairs, and the implementation of large-scale infrastructure projects. Beijing has achieved impressive success in foreign policy, in the development of Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and countries of the Asia-Pacific region. The Chinese even penetrated into the Caribbean region, the former “American reserve”. However, despite all its successes, China is in some ways very similar to the Third Reich. China made a quick takeoff in the economy and the military, but remained strategically vulnerable.


Moreover, the "economic miracle" of the Third Reich was largely due to financial injections and technological support from the so-called. "Financial International", industrial and financial groups in England, USA and Switzerland. A similar picture we have seen in recent decades. “The economic miracle” of China is largely due to the fact that China has become a “factory” of the United States. American corporations began to withdraw production to China, since the cost of labor was minimal, there were less other costs. This allowed China to make an industrial breakthrough. On the other hand, China has become dependent on foreign markets. Their collapse automatically leads to a socio-economic catastrophe in the PRC. In Beijing, this is understood and in recent years they have been trying to develop the domestic market. But, first, this process is long and complex, and the growth of domestic consumption cannot give the already formed middle class the income it receives from foreign trade. Secondly, the growth of domestic consumption and the well-being of hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens to the level of so-called. The “golden billion” is a catastrophe for the planet. The earth just won't stand it. The current United States consumes 40% of the world's resources and produces 50% of the world's garbage. If China gets closer to the American standard of consumption, the planet will face a catastrophe. The result is a vicious circle: Beijing cannot stop its growth - this will lead to an internal social explosion and another catastrophe of Chinese civilization, but it is also impossible to raise the level of consumption of a billion or more people to the American-European level. China can only be saved by a technological revolution.

"Besieged fortress"

Danger from the West. A very dangerous situation for Beijing is in the military-strategic sense. China is actually in the ring environment. From the Western strategic direction can be noted several hotbeds of instability. Here are the most unstable regions of China - the Muslim Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Tibet. These regions are not part of Chinese civilization and were subject to force. "Tibetan" and "Uigur" cards are played by external players - Islamic and Western projects. To date, Beijing has kept the situation under control, pursuing a fairly balanced policy in the sphere of national economy, education, medicine and culture. The Chinese model of “autonomy” is quite different from the Soviet or liberal one. It is generally based on pragmatism and the synthesis of socialist and traditional Chinese ideas of statehood (based on Confucianism). The rights of national minorities are not infringed in the sphere of culture, education, economy. But ethnic minorities have no special political rights. This fact causes particular irritation of the world liberal public.

However, China cannot remain aloof from the general direction of the situation. And the trends are negative. First, there is an active “swinging” of a huge region from Central Africa to the Caucasus, Central and Central Asia. Secondly, the tendency to weaken the sole superpower - the United States - has already become obvious to everyone. At first, two superpowers, the United States and the USSR, "looked after" the planet. In general, it was a balanced system. Local and regional conflicts, if desired, stopped by shouting from Washington and Moscow. After the destruction of the USSR, the United States tried to build a unipolar world, but the idea failed. The United States could not bear the imperial burden, and, judging by all, it would no longer be able to produce a technological revolution while the rest of the world was engulfed in a series of regional conflicts. The withdrawal of the "imperial legions" and the loss of the US position across the globe will inevitably cause a series of wars for the redistribution of spheres of influence, markets, and the smoldering and long-extinct territorial and ethnic conflicts will break out. In particular, ten years ago, almost no one remembered about Senkaku Island (Diaoyu), which caused the conflict between China and Japan. Nor did they recall the Liancourt Islands in the western part of the Sea of ​​Japan. And now Japan is contesting these islands off South Korea.

The world community is returning to a multipolar model, that is, there will be several centers of global and regional significance. In particular, only in the Islamic world one can find several centers at once claiming to be the leader - Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Iran. And then there are Pakistan and Indonesia. It also increases conflict.

It is obvious that China will also try to draw into the “zone of chaos”, eventually splitting it into several state entities. On the western border of China, there is already an Afghan focus of instability. The export of instability from the Middle East and Afghanistan, in the presence of a host of internal problems, makes the post-Soviet regimes of the Central Asian republics very vulnerable. So far, Russia and China are restraining the degradation of Central Asia, but destabilization of the region is inevitable. And with this zone - Afghanistan and Central Asia, border the most volatile regions of the PRC - XUAR and Tibet. The latest terrorist attacks in China speak of the revitalization of the Islamist underground. As the global economic crisis grows, the PRC will face an internal socio-economic crisis, which will strengthen the social base of separatists, Islamists and other opponents of the communist regime.

India. Some support for separatist sentiments in Tibet can be seen in India. In 2011, the Indian authorities allowed to hold on their territory the inauguration ceremony of the new head of the so-called. Tibetan "government in exile" Lobsang Senge, who is a lawyer at Harvard Law School. As a result, Tibetans have not only the spiritual head in exile - the Dalai Lama, but also their “government”. Lobsang Senge declared the "occupation" of Tibet and the need for a long-term solution to the Tibetan problem, with the support of the world community.

In addition, China and India have border disputes. Their source is the unresolved issue of drawing the border line between the former British India and Tibet. The current frontier is the so-called. the line of McMahon was the result of an agreement between England and the government of Tibet. China did not recognize this agreement, since Tibet considered Tibet to be its rebellious territory. Beijing and Delhi are arguing over two sites - in the northeastern part of Kashmir (Aksai-Chin) and in the northern part of the state of Arunachal Pradesh.

This dispute has already caused the 1959 military clash of the year, the Sino-Indian border war of the 1962 of the year. This war became India’s national disgrace - Chinese troops crushed Indian troops and captured disputed territories. Beijing withdrawn troops only because of pressure from the world community, but retained Aksai-Chin and achieved some territorial concessions. The border conflict also occurred in 1967. Border incidents on the Indochinese border occur at the present time and quite regularly. Thus, in the spring of 2013, Chinese troops invaded 19 kilometers into Indian territory in northeast Kashmir, but were then withdrawn. Despite the fairly rapid development of economic ties between the two Asian giants, tensions between countries are constantly growing. Part of the Indian military-political elite expresses fears that India may become an object of expansion for China. At the same time, China is an ally of the enemy of India - Pakistan. In Delhi, they made frank statements about the readiness of the armed forces to wage war on two fronts. In recent years, India has been investing heavily in the purchase of new weapons, improving nuclear forces, increasing missile capabilities, creating a national missile defense system, and developing the air force, navy and ground forces at a rapid pace. Delhi clearly foresee a big war in the future. In China, in turn, noted the "hegemonic mentality" of Indian politics and its main principle - "friendship with long-distance and attack on neighbors."

Nowadays, the disputed regions, which recently did not have special economic value, have become even more attractive. Water resources are of particular value. Both powers have energy problems. And through Arunachal Pradesh Brahmaputra flows. By the 2020, Beijing wants to increase the share of hydropower from 6-7% to 15%, part of this ambitious plan is the construction of four dams on the Brahmaputra. However, for Delhi, Chinese plans mean a reduction in the flow of water from the river, and this leads to problems with irrigation, a decrease in agricultural production and the implementation of its own hydropower projects. There are also between the two powers and economic contradictions. China and India occupy about one niche in the world division of labor, but the Indians are seriously lagging behind. This greatly disturbs them. In fact, there is a permanent trade war between the powers.

Delhi is even more worried about Beijing’s building a system of unions and strong points that should ensure its communications and neutralize India. China received a network of strongholds in Burma, where it builds a deep-water port, and builds an oil and gas pipeline to Yunnan Province. The Chinese also have a strong position in Bangladesh, which has traditionally been hostile to India. Beijing has strongholds in Pakistan, and also established itself in Sri Lanka (the port of Hambantota) and plans to establish a base in the Maldives (Marao). In addition, Nepal, previously oriented towards India, has now fallen into the zone of predominant influence of the PRC. In fact, Beijing surrounded India with its allies, satellites and strong points.

In response, Delhi actively cooperates with Vietnam, not only in the economic sphere, but also in the military. In addition, India conducted the first military exercises with Japan. Delhi clearly does not want to be alone with China and is guided by the anti-Chinese coalition, which the United States has put together. The confrontation with China makes India increasingly focus on the West. Delhi and Beijing also confront each other in the Persian Gulf, where Indians are increasingly converging with the Arab monarchies, and the Chinese are cooperating with Iran. India and China have clashed even in Africa.

Both powers are building up their military infrastructure in border areas. India is building new take-off areas in the mountains, forming mountain and armored formations in the “Chinese direction”. China is preparing cross-border infrastructure, building roads. Delhi and Beijing are "carrier race." India, like China, has moved to the construction of an “expeditionary fleet”, Which will not only protect its interests in the Indian Ocean, but will also be able to provide projection of force on a global scale. The nuclear missile program of India also looks unequivocal. The test of the Agni-5 ballistic missile with a range of 5 thousand km is clearly addressed to Beijing. Now “Agni” is able to strike at the main vital centers of China.

The vulnerability of China's communications and dependence on food imports and raw materials. China in this respect is very similar to the Third Reich. China suffers from a shortage of raw materials and food and is forced to import them. For example, more than half of the oil consumed in the country is imported. At the same time, Chinese maritime communications, through which most of the imports go, are under attack by both the USA, which has a developed network of bases in the APR, and American allies — Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines. The path to the Persian Gulf goes through the narrow "throat" of the Strait of Malacca, which is controlled by pro-western Singapore and not too friendly Muslim Indonesia. The path through the waters of Indonesia to Australia, from where the supplies of food, coal and iron ore go, can also easily be blocked.

The blockade of China can put it on the brink of hunger. Experts believe that the provision of food to the PRC, due to its rapid economic growth and limited resources, is a difficult task, and consumption growth in China will outpace production growth. Beijing is trying to solve this problem through the purchase of production facilities abroad. At this time, China is acting on the global agricultural market as a player that actively concludes mergers and acquisitions in the agro-industrial complex. In particular, Shuanghui Group, the largest Chinese meat-processing corporation, announced the purchase of Smithfield, an American pork manufacturing company (the value of the transaction was 7 billion US dollars). At the same time, commodity traders, including Archer Daniels Midland and Marubeni, spent about 10 billion US dollars last year, buying up grain traders from Australia and the USA. The growth of the middle class in China, which is switching to European consumption standards, with their meat and dairy ration, has led to the fact that China has become the world's largest importer of soybeans, which is necessary for meat production. It is expected that China will become the world leader in per capita consumption of pork, and by 2022 will overtake indicators of EU countries. In addition, in recent years, China has been importing rice (an unprecedented deal), and in ever-increasing volumes: from 575 000 tons in 2011 year to 2,8 million tons in 2012 year. Import of barley, sugar, milk and other products is also growing rapidly. The main suppliers are the USA, Australia, Canada, Brazil, Argentina (all these channels can be blocked).

At the same time, the Food and Agriculture Organization and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in their report said that in China the area of ​​agricultural land continues to decrease. It also increases China’s dependence on international food markets. China is buying up land or renting it all over the world.

To be continued ...
Author:
Articles from this series:
Pacific Rim: The Awakening of the Samurai Spirit in Japan
Pacific frontier: South Korean "ambush regiment"
Pacific frontier: Chinese "fortress"
Pacific frontier: Chinese "fortress". Part of 2
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  1. makarov
    makarov 8 November 2013 07: 52
    +7
    Everyone pulls a blanket over himself, and China is no exception. Alas, such a World.
    1. Kolya
      Kolya 8 November 2013 09: 16
      -2
      China will not only reduce its agricultural land in Ukraine, but also in Ukraine. And you, Makarov, philosophize further until the bush legs in the freezer run out.
      1. VARCHUN
        VARCHUN 8 November 2013 14: 37
        0
        If the government of the country itself is not able to restore order on its land, so let at least others do it.
      2. Tartary
        Tartary 9 November 2013 05: 08
        +2
        Quote: Kohl
        China will not only reduce its agricultural land in Ukraine, but also in Ukraine. And you, Makarov, philosophize further until the bush legs in the freezer run out.

        "Bush's legs" are still there, but how many people are buying them?
        They have long been replaced by local hens of excellent quality and assortment ... At least in our Far East.
    2. alatau_09
      alatau_09 8 November 2013 09: 25
      +5
      if only a blanket ... All recent wars occur over resources (the same III Reich? late for the division of the colonial "pie") ... The richest country in resources is Russia, a fact. Now think, the growing China can solve all its problems in one fell swoop by capturing Siberia, the Far East and Central Asia ... Why would it protect long-distance sea communications, expensive supplies from other continents where it is obviously weak? When is all this close to the arm's length? China throughout its history has been and remains an insidious neighbor, one might say "the Anglo-Saxons of Asia" ...
      1. sergey32
        sergey32 8 November 2013 10: 49
        10
        The other day I flew in from a vacation. Oddly enough, there were quite a few Chinese people, China is getting richer. But he looked at the Chinese, no, they are not warriors. They go in flocks, constantly take pictures. They don’t know how to swim, they climb even to the smallest detail with a circle or an inflatable vest. One put on flippers, but could not enter them into the water, the other entered, but threshed them more air, almost not moving. They did not have Soviet childhood, they are weak in body and spirit, though they are strong in number. I had a familiar Chinese, he studied in our city in graduate school. He said that a Chinese can oppose Russian only if he owns kung fu. He did not own, so he had to run from our bullies.
        We must strengthen our country, then the Chinese will have no desire to attack us, even with an overwhelming numerical superiority.
        1. Gluxar_
          Gluxar_ 8 November 2013 14: 11
          +4
          Quote: sergey32
          The other day I flew in from a vacation. Oddly enough, there were quite a few Chinese people, China is getting richer. But he looked at the Chinese, no, they are not warriors. They go in flocks, constantly take pictures. They don’t know how to swim, they climb even to the smallest detail with a circle or an inflatable vest. One put on flippers, but could not enter them into the water, the other entered, but threshed more of them with air, almost not moving. They did not have Soviet childhood, they are weak in body and spirit, though they are strong in number. I had a familiar Chinese, he studied in our city in graduate school. He said that a Chinese can oppose Russian only if he owns kung fu. He did not own, so he had to run from our bullies. We must strengthen our country, then the Chinese will have no desire to attack us, even with an overwhelming numerical superiority.

          Number scare only children. Any military man understands that quantity decides little, and sometimes creates more difficulties. Especially with the level of development of today's technologies.
        2. Karlsonn
          Karlsonn 8 November 2013 20: 17
          +5
          Quote: sergey32
          The other day I flew in from a vacation. Oddly enough, there were quite a few Chinese people, China is getting richer. But he looked at the Chinese, no, they are not warriors. They go in flocks, constantly take pictures. They don’t know how to swim, they climb even to the smallest detail with a circle or an inflatable vest. One put on flippers, but could not enter them into the water, the other entered, but threshed more of them with air, almost not moving.
        3. timer
          timer 9 November 2013 20: 41
          +2
          I agree with the thesis about strengthening the country. With regard to cooperation with China and India, I have the opinion that our leadership is captivated by illusions about the friend of China and India. That they will not betray, etc. There are no friends in peace politics, there are interests .And the long-term interest of Russia is the following, on the one hand, it is imperative to prevent the strengthening of China and India, and on the other hand, it is strengthened at the expense of expanding the sales markets of its goods and promoting its national interests. Only so! Otherwise, we will be crushed in Primorye there will be some Chinese in the Far East.
      2. bolonenkov
        bolonenkov 8 November 2013 11: 31
        +8
        Quote: alatau_09
        capturing Siberia, Far East and Central Asia in one fell swoop

        The question is how? We tried once already, it didn't work. And now you can get a nuclear baton on the forehead, or, with our indulgence, a vacuum bomb. And in general, don't you find the theory of the "Great War with China" complete nonsense? For expansion, preparation is needed, the pooling of forces and means and then promotion, since this will happen unnoticed, or will the Chinese break us in one company?
        1. Gluxar_
          Gluxar_ 8 November 2013 14: 17
          +7
          Quote: bolonenkov
          The question is how? We tried once already, it didn't work. And now you can get a nuclear baton on the forehead, or, with our indulgence, a vacuum bomb. And in general, don't you find the theory of the "Great War with China" complete nonsense? For expansion, preparation is needed, the pooling of forces and means and then promotion, since this will happen unnoticed, or will the Chinese break us in one company?

          I completely agree. Moreover, prerequisites are needed for war. Vulnerability of communications is such a condition. There is no hypothetical chance to seize someone else’s nuclear power by force.
          Much will depend on the February US Games. All the articles of the last 2 years in their forecasts take little into account the fact of the collapse of the United States, as if this is not possible in principle. However, much is possible. With the collapse of the United States, China will receive all the resources that it needs without any problems, but it will have nowhere to sell its goods and the need for resources will sharply decrease. America consumes 40% of the world's "goods". That is, at one point all countries will receive twice as much food for their consumption if they throw off this American yoke. In such geopolitical conditions, it is difficult to predict anything, because a qualitative change in the entire situation will take place. The world with and without the United States will be very different, both in terms of instruments of influence and in the directions of development.
        2. Walker1975
          Walker1975 8 November 2013 17: 38
          -6
          And what? The Chinese have a land army of 4 million. How many of these 4 million are in the north? Not one company at all. The only thing that stops is a nuclear baton. It’s easier to relocate 100 million Chinese to Siberia, and then hold a referendum
        3. timer
          timer 9 November 2013 20: 51
          0
          Yes, the Chinese are actively penetrating into the territory of Russia even without war. Look who lives in the Far East, in Primorye, etc. Due to the lack of a competent program for the development of these regions, very soon there will not be a single resident of indigenous nationalities. I repeat, a cunning and pragmatic policy must be pursued with China!
      3. Gluxar_
        Gluxar_ 8 November 2013 14: 09
        +4
        Quote: alatau_09
        if only a blanket ... All recent wars occur over resources (the same III Reich? late for the division of the colonial "pie") ... The richest country in resources is Russia, a fact. Now think, the growing China can solve all its problems in one fell swoop by capturing Siberia, the Far East and Central Asia ... Why would it protect long-distance sea communications, expensive supplies from other continents where it is obviously weak? When is all this close to the arm's length? China throughout its history has been and remains an insidious neighbor, one might say "the Anglo-Saxons of Asia" ...

        One has only to pay attention to the fact that Russia is not Africa or Australia. This is an independent player, moreover, the only one on the planet who possesses both resources and technologies. Ideal in all respects in the event of a massive mess. So no one will get involved with such an enemy, and everyone will fight for Russian "favor." The main arena of the 21st century is Africa and the Asia-Pacific region.
      4. Walker1975
        Walker1975 8 November 2013 17: 28
        +1
        Moreover, the land army of China is much more powerful than its fleet. At the same time, China can only contain nuclear weapons. The transfer of troops from the European part of Siberia to the Far East will be a very difficult task.
        1. Evgenij.
          Evgenij. 9 November 2013 07: 50
          +1
          In the event of a war with Russia, China is left without fuel, food supply routes are cut, large infrastructure facilities are destroyed. The army is deprived of supplies and EVERYTHING. end of war
          1. Guun
            Guun 9 November 2013 09: 38
            0
            Quote: Evgenij.
            The army is deprived of supplies and EVERYTHING. end of war

            Exactly!
      5. castle
        castle 9 November 2013 12: 10
        0
        Good health to all.
        Russia itself, through its state organizations and private companies, and sometimes, with the help of local kings, helps China create a club with which China, then, will kill Russia. It seems that some people in the Russian state, because of the momentary benefits for their own pockets, do not want to think about the future of Russia.
    3. VARCHUN
      VARCHUN 8 November 2013 14: 36
      +3
      I say every Iperia when it soars and falls, so it will be with China and the USA.
    4. Alex toll
      Alex toll 8 November 2013 16: 05
      +2
      Notice, and Russia is accumulating strength - we have everything for development. We will learn to defend ourselves and we will take what we want and from whom we want. The defense industry will be more or less by the year 20, and there it will trample !!! And all the rest will not be able to do anything already it will be too late - whoever pokes his head in the den will remain without a head.
    5. Army1
      Army1 8 November 2013 17: 45
      0
      The West does not pose a military threat to China. The main thing is of course the supply of raw materials and foreign companies in China. And the arms race is not worth it.
    6. Light source
      Light source 8 November 2013 18: 17
      +1
      Quote: makarov
      Alas, such a World.

      No, the world is beautiful, the sun is shining, the birds are singing.
      But people, yes, people are blankets.
  2. MIKHAN
    MIKHAN 8 November 2013 07: 58
    +9
    Everything goes to war .. I hope Russia this time will escape this next meat grinder
    1. Asgard
      Asgard 8 November 2013 09: 43
      +6
      Russia cannot avoid this !!!B O Y N A
      Alas, Misha, we are carriers - SUPER_ETNOS (we are energetically connected with the planet)), China was raised for IT, this is a nation of bio-robots that will be turned to the North .....
      Article +, an extremely competent and verified factology, the author is shy to make statements, but leads to the thought .....

      In general, of course it is interesting. All that can be COMMUNICATED, received funds from FINANCIAL capital, mastered TECHNOLOGIES (though not all))))

      Not a single technology has been developed .... for 7522 (from the day of the last defeat in the war with the Rus)) and the conclusion of the world in the STAR TEMPLE)))
      (So ​​we have a chance))))defeat the "copier")))
      1. VARCHUN
        VARCHUN 8 November 2013 14: 43
        0
        Dreams are only dreams, there is no longer that people, but not all agree but this is not enough.
      2. dark_65
        dark_65 8 November 2013 17: 52
        0
        Well, how about none? What about copying technology? Now I wonder if they compromised the flaw and the paper?
      3. Firebox
        Firebox 9 November 2013 09: 30
        0
        what did you smoke when you wrote this? : D
    2. VARCHUN
      VARCHUN 8 November 2013 14: 40
      +1
      And why would Russia stand aside, there will be a collapse, the hidden scum will come out, there will be a survival time.
  3. aszzz888
    aszzz888 8 November 2013 08: 12
    +1
    China in this respect is very similar to the Third Reich. China is experiencing a shortage of raw materials and food and is forced to import them. For example, more than half of the oil consumed in the country is imported.


    I don’t know about the Third; it can be compared with another regime, more modern. But the fact that China is very profitable to buy oil from us is a moot point.
    1. asadov
      asadov 8 November 2013 11: 16
      +2
      I agree, while profitable. But the question may arise, why buy it if you can just take it? Given our current state of affairs in the Far East (poor development of everything, small population), this is quite possible.
      1. Gluxar_
        Gluxar_ 8 November 2013 14: 20
        +3
        Quote: asadov
        I agree, while profitable. But the question may arise, why buy it if you can just take it? Given our current state of affairs in the Far East (poor development of everything, small population), this is quite possible.

        Well, this is a question of an unreasonable child who quickly finds an answer to it when he gets "on snot". This is how boys usually grow up. In the next 10 years, China will need to make every effort not to quarrel with Russia. Only by covering its rear does China have a chance to confront its neighbors in the APR.
  4. Stiletto
    Stiletto 8 November 2013 08: 43
    +4
    He smiled about the fact that "China is in a ring of encirclement." These guys will surround and assimilate whoever you want.
  5. os9165
    os9165 8 November 2013 08: 44
    +5
    It is necessary to look into the future because the population of the Far East is declining, we are weaker than the neighbor in all respects - then wait. Soon, China will make territorial claims to Russia (the border agreement between the Russian Federation and China expires in 2021) in the worst case, at best, will lease the Far East. China has leased over 5 million hectares of Ukrainian land for 3 years. It is necessary to work, and to trade resources. There is still time.
    1. a52333
      a52333 8 November 2013 09: 10
      +1
      China will soon bring territorial claims to Russia
      And the navel will not untie?
      1. VARCHUN
        VARCHUN 8 November 2013 14: 46
        0
        And why should he untie the veteran, they are also a nuclear power, and do not write off the 5th column from Russian politicians, they were always there, and if they do, they will do their job.
    2. AlexCPP
      AlexCPP 8 November 2013 14: 57
      0
      Please, if it’s not difficult for you. Can you give a link to this document that it expires in 2021? And only please from official sources such as the Russian Foreign Ministry. Where I was not looking in official sources I could not find him.
    3. wei
      wei 8 November 2013 22: 00
      +1
      add
      at least spend reasonably money on the sale of resources
      reasonable felling and restoration of cut down forests (you can tighten engineering) to deal with FISH (shipbuilding) all this will attract metallurgy ...
      force the "pioneers" of the AK to assemble to disassemble. HOW? instead of kih animes to remove theirs where the bear tears the lion's ass on the British flag
      as for the Far East, the capital must be moved permanently raised the city built roads and transferred
  6. Nayhas
    Nayhas 8 November 2013 09: 39
    0
    There is already an Afghan hotbed of instability on the western border of China. The export of instability from the Middle East and Afghanistan, in the presence of a mass of internal problems, makes the post-Soviet regimes of the Central Asian republics very vulnerable. So far, Russia and China are holding back the degradation of Central Asia, but regional destabilization is inevitable.

    Somehow, the author did not note that instability in this region has been supported for many decades by China itself, which first supplied the Afghans with weapons against the USSR, and then against the USA. All the weapons that the Afghans are now so enthusiastically wet each other from China.
    1. asadov
      asadov 8 November 2013 11: 20
      0
      Just like the United States, at one time it supported against the USSR and then it ran into it. So the situation can be repeated only not in favor of China
  7. ed65b
    ed65b 8 November 2013 09: 39
    +2
    The funniest thing is that while the United States and Russia disarm and argue about missile defense and INF, China and India will clash in the Nuclear War and then the packs will connect, and then the fun will begin. God forbid, of course.
    1. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 8 November 2013 14: 24
      +3
      Quote: ed65b
      The funniest thing is that while the United States and Russia disarm and argue about missile defense and INF, China and India will clash in the Nuclear War and then the packs will connect, and then the fun will begin. God forbid, of course.

      Will they start a nuclear war over two villages in a remote mountain region?
      It upsets me very much how much the liberals washed the brains of part of our public. The fact that Ango-Saxons want to rake the heat in the 3rd millennium with the help of others is clear to everyone, including Asians. No one will fight because of far-fetched reasons. They just think that if the United States stops consuming 40% of their labor, they will live 40% better. And they will make a simple and reasonable choice to send the Angles to X. This will be the end of it.
  8. DATO8791
    DATO8791 8 November 2013 09: 43
    +1
    If the Chinese make claims and start a war, we would only be able to hold out until the winter, and then, in the winter, we will observe millions of dead bodies of starving Chinese soldiers, carried snow to the head. The main thing is not to let them capture the city before Winter.
    1. Ah1ll
      Ah1ll 8 November 2013 10: 29
      -1
      And if suddenly they move to the cities, then we like Moscow Kutuzov and let them think))
    2. IRBIS
      IRBIS 8 November 2013 10: 35
      +3
      Quote: DATO8791
      we would only be able to hold out until the winter, and then, in the winter, we will observe millions of corpses of starving Chinese soldiers, carried snow to the very head.

      Do you believe that yourself? What is the difference between the climate in Northern China and our Far East and Transbaikalia?
      But the preparation of the Chinese army is different from ours, significantly different and not at all in our favor, unfortunately.
      1. Setrac
        Setrac 8 November 2013 21: 58
        0
        Quote: IRBIS
        Do you believe that yourself? What is the difference between the climate in Northern China and our Far East and Transbaikalia?

        And how does the climate in the Kuban differ from the climate of the Moscow Region? The difference is huge. And the Chinese do not want to live in Northern China, in the Far East they do not want to live in a square.
      2. Evgenij.
        Evgenij. 9 November 2013 07: 54
        0
        Our army can deal with any enemy! (or a combination of any enemies)
      3. DATO8791
        DATO8791 2 December 2013 20: 01
        0
        You will not be able to drive the technique on the "winter roads", and if you do it, then with huge losses. I looked at Google Maps - to the Trans-Baikal Territory and to Vladivostok, the breakthrough of the Chinese - 4 (well, five) roads along which armored vehicles can move and even then no further than the Amur coast. And what's next - the relief is very unfavorable for the advancing troops. Those roads that lead to Vladivostok and Khabarovsk are shot through with all types of weapons and bombarded by aircraft + tactical nuclear weapons. Currently, China has no chance of a SUCCESSFUL war with the Russian Federation (of course, they can gnaw). There remains one chance - a very (very fast breakthrough through Mongolia), but, I think, ours will not give it. a small number of strategic roads - overcrowding of Chinese armored vehicles and combined arms formations - the path to defeat. China has no chance !!!
    3. asadov
      asadov 8 November 2013 11: 22
      0
      Now it’s not 19 centuries or even 20 centuries. Hope this is not particularly necessary.
  9. Standard Oil
    Standard Oil 8 November 2013 10: 12
    +3
    Be that as it may, Russia will probably have to use the Anglo-Saxon tactics of uniting with the weak versus the strong, the British have been doing this for 300 years, we don’t need permanent allies, we will be friends with everyone, but as soon as the ambition appears on one side or the other, let's join the opposite and destroy the insolent, preferably with the hands of the other side while ensuring that it doesn’t intensify too much. Of course, Great Britain was on the island and she was guarded by the world's strongest fleet, which only the Kaiser risked fighting openly (and only once), and the Führer frostbitten, who paid for it, well, the Italians (finished badly), well, the Japanese, but it was in the then world, so it doesn’t count and the Japanese finished badly, too. But on the other hand, what is the same Siberia different from the ocean ? Infrastructure there is 0,0% until the Chinese get through the taiga columns of their troops can be turned by constant airstrikes into herds of distraught people. I see no other strategy for Russia.
  10. Kirzhak
    Kirzhak 8 November 2013 11: 11
    +5
    If China approaches American consumption standards, a disaster awaits the planet.
    Now, if all the Chinese go from chopsticks to spoons, then it will definitely be a disaster! wassat
  11. RUSS
    RUSS 8 November 2013 11: 24
    +1
    China does not even have an economic upturn, but takeoff, but the higher you climb, the more painful you will fall, problems in the economy are already beginning, and this is not strange, the problems with the population, namely, because of the program "one family, one child", the Chinese do not have enough "working hands."
  12. Andrew 447
    Andrew 447 8 November 2013 11: 32
    +4
    What is the capture of Siberia and the Far East by China? Between Harbin and Beijing lies a vast territory called Inner Mongolia. Its length from south to north is about 800 km. In this province, the population density is almost the same as in Siberia and less than in the Far East. For opening a business in this territory, the Chinese government It gives colossal preferences, but nobody needs it for nothing. China has one of the leading places in the world in explored total mineral reserves, except oil and gas. They have Uyghurs around their neck who can easily rebel to the sound of waves. surface problems and arguments against.
    1. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 8 November 2013 14: 29
      +2
      Quote: Andrey 447
      What is the capture of Siberia and the Far East by China? Between Harbin and Beijing lies a vast territory called Inner Mongolia. Its length from south to north is about 800 km. In this province, the population density is almost the same as in Siberia and less than in the Far East. For opening a business in this territory, the Chinese government It gives colossal preferences, but nobody needs it for nothing. China has one of the leading places in the world in explored total mineral reserves, except oil and gas. They have Uyghurs around their neck who can easily rebel to the sound of waves. surface problems and arguments against.

      The population is already rapidly aging. The sharp contraction will begin soon. Ecology has been destroyed. The only chance for the Chinese is to enter the Asia-Pacific region as an equal partner and gain real sovereignty. In 50 years, China will be as simple as Japan or Indonesia. Now bad people are simply pumping up the "Chinese threat", just as they pumped up the "Soviet" threat for 40 years, and the "Russian threat" for 150 years. One gallop theater, but the level of communications has changed a lot today, an information revolution has taken place and people have grown wiser. Old templates will not work, hence the decay of the West.
  13. makarov
    makarov 8 November 2013 11: 32
    +2
    Quote: Kohl
    And you, Makarov, philosophize further until the bush legs in the freezer run out.

    You have Kolya, they may be in the refrigerator, I’m not even surprised to say that bread grows on a breadfruit.
    I have "legs" running in the hen house, and "sausage" in the pigsty, and milk in the barn. Since I have long understood the state's unscrupulousness to its own citizens, therefore I work for my family. And I work a lot, mainly with my mind.
  14. Rinat 1
    Rinat 1 8 November 2013 11: 34
    +2
    Current wars will not be like in WWII. In China, the army is not only enough to winter, but to go further. So the former USSR needs to rally and is preparing to fight back.
    1. VARCHUN
      VARCHUN 8 November 2013 14: 52
      +1
      Yes, that kind of thing poked you with the unification of the former USSR, you tell the Balts such tales and even the Georgians.
      1. Evgenij.
        Evgenij. 9 November 2013 08: 00
        0
        They ask the strong, the rest do as they say
  15. The comment was deleted.
  16. basmach
    basmach 8 November 2013 12: 39
    +4
    It is correctly noted that China is sorely lacking resources and living areas. In this case, the direction of China's expansion is determined to the south. However, the strategic location and availability of the resource base, as well as food and water resources, the lack of supply lines in the event of war, small numbers and actual inability Eastern military forces to defend the territory from Baikal to Vladik are the main reasons for the future movement of China to the north and the determining factors of the war. The supply of the entire Far East is tied through the Trans-Siberian Railway, these are huge territories, after all the reforms and reductions almost not covered by military groups, the low population and, as a result, the lack of a local personnel reserve, the absence of a clear regional defense system (or rather its complete absence) are just a few factors. which could lead to the loss of the entire region in case of war. In fact, China has no other direction for expansion. In addition, over the past 20 years, so many Chinese have settled in Transbaikalia and the Far East that this is not even a fifth column, but an entire army and how it will behave during the war
    The European theater of war has lost its paramount importance and the Asia-Pacific theater of war comes to the fore as the main threat. It is here and now that the basic knots and contradictions are tied up, which will be the cause of the wars of the near future.
    1. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 8 November 2013 14: 31
      +1
      Quote: basmach
      It is correctly noted that China is sorely lacking in resources and living areas. In this case, the direction of China's expansion is determined to the south. However, the strategic location and availability of the resource base, as well as food and water resources, lack of supply lines in the event of war, small numbers and actual inability Eastern military forces to defend the territory from Baikal to Vladik are the main reasons for the future movement of China to the north and the determining factors of the war. The supply of the entire Far East is tied through the Trans-Siberian Railway, these are huge territories, after all the reforms and reductions almost not covered by military groups, the low population and, as a result, the lack of a local personnel reserve, the absence of a clear regional defense system (or rather its complete absence) are just a few factors. which could lead to the loss of the entire region in case of war. In fact, China has no other direction for expansion. In addition, over the past 20 years, so many Chinese have settled in Transbaikalia and the Far East that it’s not even the fifth column, but the whole army and how it will behave during the war. The European theater of war has lost its paramount importance and as the main threat, the Asia-Pacific theater of operations comes to the fore. It is here and now that the basic knots and contradictions are tied up, which will be the cause of the wars of the near future.

      So you think that our missiles do not fly?
      1. Walker1975
        Walker1975 8 November 2013 17: 45
        0
        Quote: Gluxar_
        So you think that our missiles do not fly?


        Fly, of course ... but China also has missiles. Where do you send missiles? In its Far East or immediately in Beijing?
        1. Setrac
          Setrac 8 November 2013 22: 03
          0
          Quote: Walker1975
          Fly, of course ... but China also has missiles. Where do you send missiles? In its Far East or immediately in Beijing?

          On the border territory, cutting off logistics, the Chinese themselves will eat each other.
        2. Evgenij.
          Evgenij. 9 November 2013 08: 02
          0
          Demolish key points in China and he will eat himself
        3. Gluxar_
          Gluxar_ 9 November 2013 11: 00
          +1
          Quote: Walker1975
          Fly, of course ... but China also has missiles. Where do you send missiles? In its Far East or immediately in Beijing?

          China has nuclear weapons at the same level at which the USSR transferred them. The number and range of launch vehicles is very limited. Within the radius of defeat of the Chinese ICBMs, it is precisely Siberia and the Far East, only individual carriers can fly beyond the Urals. But the most important thing is that China is populated only along the coast in areas with super-population density. Even a limited nuclear strike in these areas will lead to enormous losses and destabilize the whole country. If a country strikes one of the Russian cities, it will be a local catastrophe. The distribution of the population throughout the territory is fairly even (in the western part of the country) and the city is always equipped with small settlements, which will become temporary settlements for the population. In China, even in peacetime, there are orgomic problems with the distribution of the population. When you strike Shanghai, 25 million people will be on their feet. There are no such transport corridors in China to quickly accommodate such a large population and provide it with everything necessary. At the second strike in Guangzhou or Tianjin, another 30 million people will stand on their noses. And most importantly, these centers are actually all of China. Even the entire Chinese army will not be able to cope with 50 million hungry and frightened refugees; there will not be enough cartridges.

          As regards the use of nuclear weapons, you can have no doubt that as soon as the situation goes beyond the borders of a crossfire, a tactical nuclear weapon will deliver a limited blow to the border areas of concentration of a potential enemy, if a nuclear response follows, then there will already be total destruction of industrial areas. China has always been and will be vulnerable just against WMDs, and therefore does not place emphasis on its strategic nuclear forces as the exchange of blows with both the United States and Russia is not equivalent.
  17. basmach
    basmach 8 November 2013 12: 39
    -2
    It is correctly noted that China is sorely lacking resources and living areas. In this case, the direction of China's expansion is determined to the south. However, the strategic location and availability of the resource base, as well as food and water resources, the lack of supply lines in the event of war, small numbers and actual inability Eastern military forces to defend the territory from Baikal to Vladik are the main reasons for the future movement of China to the north and the determining factors of the war. The supply of the entire Far East is tied through the Trans-Siberian Railway, these are huge territories, after all the reforms and reductions almost not covered by military groups, the low population and, as a result, the lack of a local personnel reserve, the absence of a clear regional defense system (or rather its complete absence) are just a few factors. which could lead to the loss of the entire region in case of war. In fact, China has no other direction for expansion. In addition, over the past 20 years, so many Chinese have settled in Transbaikalia and the Far East that this is not even a fifth column, but an entire army and how it will behave during the war
    The European theater of war has lost its paramount importance and the Asia-Pacific theater of war comes to the fore as the main threat. It is here and now that the basic knots and contradictions are tied up, which will be the cause of the wars of the near future.
    1. Odysseus
      Odysseus 8 November 2013 14: 08
      +2
      Quote: basmach
      However, the strategic location and availability of the resource base, as well as food and water resources, the lack of supply lines in the event of war, the small number and actual inability of the Eastern Military District to defend the territory from Baikal to Vladik are the main reasons for the future movement of China to the north and the determining factors of the war

      China will easily win the ordinary war against modern Russia, but they do not have missile defense, that is, they are vulnerable to nuclear weapons. And the capital and families of the Russian authorities are in the West, so that in the event of an invasion of the PRC, they will use nuclear weapons without hesitation.
      In addition, China is now actively buying up energy resources throughout the former USSR. What is the point of fighting if they get everything without war?
  18. Stinger
    Stinger 8 November 2013 14: 09
    +1
    China does not need to fight. It is enough to penetrate into neighboring countries in small groups of 4-5 million each and gradually everyone will speak Chinese. Which is what they practice. They are systematically being introduced into the economies of various countries and at the same time they do not teach anyone how to live and do not scream in the security councils and other structures that they are a great power. Silently take by the throat of the states with a financial hand. They do not have time to meow, as they find themselves in bondage. .
    1. VARCHUN
      VARCHUN 8 November 2013 14: 57
      +1
      This is all babbling. But the truth is that Beijing with human resources can be shouted like Genghis Khan. Every 2 weeks in China a thermal power plant is being built, name at least one country at such a pace, Baikal is next to China and you yourself understand that - fresh water resources and even in such volumes, so Russia has long had to keep an eye on it, rather than gnaw at gas problems.
      1. Evgenij.
        Evgenij. 9 November 2013 08: 04
        0
        Have you seen reports from China about the beginning of the heating season? Where visibility in cities is 10 meters, can you imagine how technologically advanced heat and power plants are being built there?
  19. Prometheus
    Prometheus 8 November 2013 15: 02
    0
    I summarize: wait and see. Si vic pacem - para bellum.
  20. Savva30
    Savva30 8 November 2013 15: 40
    0
    I don’t like all this ... continuous reconnaissance ...
  21. I think so
    I think so 8 November 2013 17: 08
    +1
    What is the article about? Nothing ... Many letters, no real thoughts ...
  22. spirit
    spirit 8 November 2013 17: 34
    0
    what will China eat? I think algae with flavors from McDonald's)))) The ocean will feed everyone (if you don't spoil it)
  23. vitantin
    vitantin 8 November 2013 19: 30
    0
    I watched the broadcast on NTV. The Chinese have long been in the Far East without war. Forest is illegally exported by echelons, for some special passes. The land leased by chemicals is poisoned irrevocably, for one crop, then a new one is taken. Everywhere the Chinese, Russian hard workers are crowded in all directions. Corruption around from local authorities to border guards. The master there must be set up strong so that order is brought in, otherwise soon there will be nothing to protect. Heart hurts
  24. alone
    alone 8 November 2013 20: 35
    0
    China will never start an open war, not with Russia, not with America. It will be enough for China to conduct an economic seizure of space (which they do). Now the world is deciding the economy, not the bombs. The economy can achieve more than soldiers and tanks.
    1. Walker1975
      Walker1975 9 November 2013 00: 37
      0
      Quote: lonely
      .economy can achieve more than soldiers and tanks


      For the time being ... The population is growing exponentially, industry is growing, there are no more resources ... in general, a situation may come when guns solve the problem
      1. Evgenij.
        Evgenij. 9 November 2013 08: 05
        0
        and reduce the population of China
        1. Gluxar_
          Gluxar_ 9 November 2013 11: 03
          0
          Quote: Evgenij.
          and reduce the population of China

          The problem of China is not in its population, but in the fact that the whole world needs its cheap goods. people hooked on cheap consumer goods.
    2. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 9 November 2013 11: 02
      +1
      Quote: lonely
      China will never start an open war, not with Russia, not with America. It will be enough for China to conduct an economic seizure of space (which they do). Now the world is deciding the economy, not the bombs. The economy can achieve more than soldiers and tanks.

      Tell it to Libya and Iraq. Everything was fine with the economy. And just because the economy of the West could not get in there, it was launched there with bombs.
  25. voliador
    voliador 8 November 2013 20: 56
    0
    Things are heading for war. Know more when and where?
    1. Evgenij.
      Evgenij. 9 November 2013 08: 06
      0
      22-23 years old. I just don’t know with whom
  26. SV
    SV 8 November 2013 22: 08
    0
    An attack by China on Russia is unlikely and can happen if conditions arise under which a war with us will remain the only chance for survival.
    Worth listening to Gluxar_:
    "Only children are scared by quantity. Any military man understands that quantity does not solve much, and sometimes creates more difficulties. Moreover, with the level of development of today's technologies."

    Can you imagine what Siberia is with its infrastructure? Fill the concert hall with people and force them to leave the room quickly through a very long corridor with many narrow doors, to alleviate the situation, another group is actively opposing them all the way ......
  27. Postman
    Postman 8 November 2013 22: 49
    +1
    Quote: Gluxar_
    Number scare only children. Any military man understands that quantity decides little, and sometimes creates more difficulties. Especially with the level of development of today's technologies.


    And any normal one will count: with the world a thread - a naked shirt, and with every Chinese a yuan - an army to China.
    1. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 9 November 2013 11: 42
      +2
      Quote: Postman
      And any normal one will count: with the world a thread - a naked shirt, and with every Chinese a yuan - an army to China.

      An army that will sit on meringue. It is really difficult for China to confront in a local sluggish conflict somewhere in Africa. And such conditions are really decided by the volume of the economy, but in the face of direct opposition, the first blows are delivered precisely against the national economy. And in such circumstances, a number of advantages will turn into serious disadvantages.

      Although I do not want to continue pedaling this stupid topic. There will be no war with China until Russia wants to attack China. China itself is in the foreway of Russian foreign policy precisely because it wants to enlist the support of Russia and cover its rear. The Russian-Chinese alliance is the collapse of Western civilization, which is why information trolls are peddling the theme of "evil China", just as they talked about "bloodthirsty advice" 50 years ago when they themselves were in the blood of innocent people.
  28. Thunderbolt
    Thunderbolt 9 November 2013 04: 51
    0
    Go ahead, Red Navy soldier!
  29. mountain
    mountain 9 November 2013 09: 56
    +1
    This article is not about Russia. They are Chinese, Russia is too tough even in today's situation. Let them work out and solve their problems, and we our own. You look at such superpowers as the United States and China, without our participation there will not be.
  30. Dimy4
    Dimy4 10 November 2013 17: 54
    0
    So far, Russia and China are holding back the degradation of Central Asia, but regional destabilization is inevitable.

    Yes, the withdrawal of our country from Central Asia will mean a complete collapse of this region in all directions and to rolling back to the Middle Ages at an accelerated pace. In my opinion, everyone understands this (why they are fleeing to Russia) except for the governments of these countries, which are trying to lobby with the Americans. Apart from a complete mess, it will bring nothing.
  31. Arkan
    Arkan 10 November 2013 18: 25
    0
    Achilles' heel of China - more than a billion people, virtually every seventh inhabitant of the planet, respectively, providing the population with food, is a strategically important task for the CCP. Therefore, China is actively developing its fleet in order to withstand the food and raw materials blockade. All other problems described in the article are solvable.