Over the past two decades, China has amazed the world with its successes in the field of astronautics, economics, military affairs, and the implementation of large-scale infrastructure projects. Beijing has achieved impressive success in foreign policy, in the development of Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and countries of the Asia-Pacific region. The Chinese even penetrated into the Caribbean region, the former “American reserve”. However, despite all its successes, China is in some ways very similar to the Third Reich. China made a quick takeoff in the economy and the military, but remained strategically vulnerable.
Moreover, the "economic miracle" of the Third Reich was largely due to financial injections and technological support from the so-called. "Financial International", industrial and financial groups in England, USA and Switzerland. A similar picture we have seen in recent decades. “The economic miracle” of China is largely due to the fact that China has become a “factory” of the United States. American corporations began to withdraw production to China, since the cost of labor was minimal, there were less other costs. This allowed China to make an industrial breakthrough. On the other hand, China has become dependent on foreign markets. Their collapse automatically leads to a socio-economic catastrophe in the PRC. In Beijing, this is understood and in recent years they have been trying to develop the domestic market. But, first, this process is long and complex, and the growth of domestic consumption cannot give the already formed middle class the income it receives from foreign trade. Secondly, the growth of domestic consumption and the well-being of hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens to the level of so-called. The “golden billion” is a catastrophe for the planet. The earth just won't stand it. The current United States consumes 40% of the world's resources and produces 50% of the world's garbage. If China gets closer to the American standard of consumption, the planet will face a catastrophe. The result is a vicious circle: Beijing cannot stop its growth - this will lead to an internal social explosion and another catastrophe of Chinese civilization, but it is also impossible to raise the level of consumption of a billion or more people to the American-European level. China can only be saved by a technological revolution.
Danger from the West. A very dangerous situation for Beijing is in the military-strategic sense. China is actually in the ring environment. From the Western strategic direction can be noted several hotbeds of instability. Here are the most unstable regions of China - the Muslim Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Tibet. These regions are not part of Chinese civilization and were subject to force. "Tibetan" and "Uigur" cards are played by external players - Islamic and Western projects. To date, Beijing has kept the situation under control, pursuing a fairly balanced policy in the sphere of national economy, education, medicine and culture. The Chinese model of “autonomy” is quite different from the Soviet or liberal one. It is generally based on pragmatism and the synthesis of socialist and traditional Chinese ideas of statehood (based on Confucianism). The rights of national minorities are not infringed in the sphere of culture, education, economy. But ethnic minorities have no special political rights. This fact causes particular irritation of the world liberal public.
However, China cannot remain aloof from the general direction of the situation. And the trends are negative. First, there is an active “swinging” of a huge region from Central Africa to the Caucasus, Central and Central Asia. Secondly, the tendency to weaken the sole superpower - the United States - has already become obvious to everyone. At first, two superpowers, the United States and the USSR, "looked after" the planet. In general, it was a balanced system. Local and regional conflicts, if desired, stopped by shouting from Washington and Moscow. After the destruction of the USSR, the United States tried to build a unipolar world, but the idea failed. The United States could not bear the imperial burden, and, judging by all, it would no longer be able to produce a technological revolution while the rest of the world was engulfed in a series of regional conflicts. The withdrawal of the "imperial legions" and the loss of the US position across the globe will inevitably cause a series of wars for the redistribution of spheres of influence, markets, and the smoldering and long-extinct territorial and ethnic conflicts will break out. In particular, ten years ago, almost no one remembered about Senkaku Island (Diaoyu), which caused the conflict between China and Japan. Nor did they recall the Liancourt Islands in the western part of the Sea of Japan. And now Japan is contesting these islands off South Korea.
The world community is returning to a multipolar model, that is, there will be several centers of global and regional significance. In particular, only in the Islamic world one can find several centers at once claiming to be the leader - Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Iran. And then there are Pakistan and Indonesia. It also increases conflict.
It is obvious that China will also try to draw into the “zone of chaos”, eventually splitting it into several state entities. On the western border of China, there is already an Afghan focus of instability. The export of instability from the Middle East and Afghanistan, in the presence of a host of internal problems, makes the post-Soviet regimes of the Central Asian republics very vulnerable. So far, Russia and China are restraining the degradation of Central Asia, but destabilization of the region is inevitable. And with this zone - Afghanistan and Central Asia, border the most volatile regions of the PRC - XUAR and Tibet. The latest terrorist attacks in China speak of the revitalization of the Islamist underground. As the global economic crisis grows, the PRC will face an internal socio-economic crisis, which will strengthen the social base of separatists, Islamists and other opponents of the communist regime.
India. Some support for separatist sentiments in Tibet can be seen in India. In 2011, the Indian authorities allowed to hold on their territory the inauguration ceremony of the new head of the so-called. Tibetan "government in exile" Lobsang Senge, who is a lawyer at Harvard Law School. As a result, Tibetans have not only the spiritual head in exile - the Dalai Lama, but also their “government”. Lobsang Senge declared the "occupation" of Tibet and the need for a long-term solution to the Tibetan problem, with the support of the world community.
In addition, China and India have border disputes. Their source is the unresolved issue of drawing the border line between the former British India and Tibet. The current frontier is the so-called. the line of McMahon was the result of an agreement between England and the government of Tibet. China did not recognize this agreement, since Tibet considered Tibet to be its rebellious territory. Beijing and Delhi are arguing over two sites - in the northeastern part of Kashmir (Aksai-Chin) and in the northern part of the state of Arunachal Pradesh.
This dispute has already caused the 1959 military clash of the year, the Sino-Indian border war of the 1962 of the year. This war became India’s national disgrace - Chinese troops crushed Indian troops and captured disputed territories. Beijing withdrawn troops only because of pressure from the world community, but retained Aksai-Chin and achieved some territorial concessions. The border conflict also occurred in 1967. Border incidents on the Indochinese border occur at the present time and quite regularly. Thus, in the spring of 2013, Chinese troops invaded 19 kilometers into Indian territory in northeast Kashmir, but were then withdrawn. Despite the fairly rapid development of economic ties between the two Asian giants, tensions between countries are constantly growing. Part of the Indian military-political elite expresses fears that India may become an object of expansion for China. At the same time, China is an ally of the enemy of India - Pakistan. In Delhi, they made frank statements about the readiness of the armed forces to wage war on two fronts. In recent years, India has been investing heavily in the purchase of new weapons, improving nuclear forces, increasing missile capabilities, creating a national missile defense system, and developing the air force, navy and ground forces at a rapid pace. Delhi clearly foresee a big war in the future. In China, in turn, noted the "hegemonic mentality" of Indian politics and its main principle - "friendship with long-distance and attack on neighbors."
Nowadays, the disputed regions, which recently did not have special economic value, have become even more attractive. Water resources are of particular value. Both powers have energy problems. And through Arunachal Pradesh Brahmaputra flows. By the 2020, Beijing wants to increase the share of hydropower from 6-7% to 15%, part of this ambitious plan is the construction of four dams on the Brahmaputra. However, for Delhi, Chinese plans mean a reduction in the flow of water from the river, and this leads to problems with irrigation, a decrease in agricultural production and the implementation of its own hydropower projects. There are also between the two powers and economic contradictions. China and India occupy about one niche in the world division of labor, but the Indians are seriously lagging behind. This greatly disturbs them. In fact, there is a permanent trade war between the powers.
Delhi is even more worried about Beijing’s building a system of unions and strong points that should ensure its communications and neutralize India. China received a network of strongholds in Burma, where it builds a deep-water port, and builds an oil and gas pipeline to Yunnan Province. The Chinese also have a strong position in Bangladesh, which has traditionally been hostile to India. Beijing has strongholds in Pakistan, and also established itself in Sri Lanka (the port of Hambantota) and plans to establish a base in the Maldives (Marao). In addition, Nepal, previously oriented towards India, has now fallen into the zone of predominant influence of the PRC. In fact, Beijing surrounded India with its allies, satellites and strong points.
In response, Delhi actively cooperates with Vietnam, not only in the economic sphere, but also in the military. In addition, India conducted the first military exercises with Japan. Delhi clearly does not want to be alone with China and is guided by the anti-Chinese coalition, which the United States has put together. The confrontation with China makes India increasingly focus on the West. Delhi and Beijing also confront each other in the Persian Gulf, where Indians are increasingly converging with the Arab monarchies, and the Chinese are cooperating with Iran. India and China have clashed even in Africa.
Both powers are building up their military infrastructure in border areas. India is building new take-off areas in the mountains, forming mountain and armored formations in the “Chinese direction”. China is preparing cross-border infrastructure, building roads. Delhi and Beijing are "carrier race." India, like China, has moved to the construction of an “expeditionary fleet”, Which will not only protect its interests in the Indian Ocean, but will also be able to provide projection of force on a global scale. The nuclear missile program of India also looks unequivocal. The test of the Agni-5 ballistic missile with a range of 5 thousand km is clearly addressed to Beijing. Now “Agni” is able to strike at the main vital centers of China.
The vulnerability of China's communications and dependence on food imports and raw materials. China in this respect is very similar to the Third Reich. China suffers from a shortage of raw materials and food and is forced to import them. For example, more than half of the oil consumed in the country is imported. At the same time, Chinese maritime communications, through which most of the imports go, are under attack by both the USA, which has a developed network of bases in the APR, and American allies — Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines. The path to the Persian Gulf goes through the narrow "throat" of the Strait of Malacca, which is controlled by pro-western Singapore and not too friendly Muslim Indonesia. The path through the waters of Indonesia to Australia, from where the supplies of food, coal and iron ore go, can also easily be blocked.
The blockade of China can put it on the brink of hunger. Experts believe that the provision of food to the PRC, due to its rapid economic growth and limited resources, is a difficult task, and consumption growth in China will outpace production growth. Beijing is trying to solve this problem through the purchase of production facilities abroad. At this time, China is acting on the global agricultural market as a player that actively concludes mergers and acquisitions in the agro-industrial complex. In particular, Shuanghui Group, the largest Chinese meat-processing corporation, announced the purchase of Smithfield, an American pork manufacturing company (the value of the transaction was 7 billion US dollars). At the same time, commodity traders, including Archer Daniels Midland and Marubeni, spent about 10 billion US dollars last year, buying up grain traders from Australia and the USA. The growth of the middle class in China, which is switching to European consumption standards, with their meat and dairy ration, has led to the fact that China has become the world's largest importer of soybeans, which is necessary for meat production. It is expected that China will become the world leader in per capita consumption of pork, and by 2022 will overtake indicators of EU countries. In addition, in recent years, China has been importing rice (an unprecedented deal), and in ever-increasing volumes: from 575 000 tons in 2011 year to 2,8 million tons in 2012 year. Import of barley, sugar, milk and other products is also growing rapidly. The main suppliers are the USA, Australia, Canada, Brazil, Argentina (all these channels can be blocked).
At the same time, the Food and Agriculture Organization and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in their report said that in China the area of agricultural land continues to decrease. It also increases China’s dependence on international food markets. China is buying up land or renting it all over the world.
To be continued ...