Conservation of the economy, or How to return the leaked capital and build a nanodom?
For the Russian economy for the period 2013-2030, Alexey Ulyukaev defined the name: conservative. This suggests that, according to the forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development, there will be no fundamental changes in economic development in the coming 17 years, the more than serious dominance of the commodity sector will continue with the collapse of the so-called investment projects. In other words, officials of the Ministry of Economic Development announced that, in fact, no development should be expected - the main thing: to retain the positions taken by the Russian economy by the present day.
Well, we note that the forecast is realistic - already without any far-reaching plans, without violent optimism, without Napoleonic ideas in the economic sector. On the one hand, it is good that the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation calls things by their own names and does not allow them to dream about “celestial pretzels”, but on the other hand, to receive information that a country like Russia, in sporting terms, goes on to “keep the account” before the year 2030, somehow, to put it mildly, unhealthy ...
What are the reasons for recognition of our economy, even by representatives of the government "conservative"? There are many reasons. In the Ministry of Economic Development, among such reasons is the exhaustion of the existing model of economic growth, which is based on foreign trade conditions. In other words, even if we decide to sell abroad two times more energy than today, this will not give the economy a tangible increase. The fact is that for the double growth of exports of the same hydrocarbons, it is necessary, at a minimum, to increase domestic production capacity (and, as a maximum, to expand the sales markets), and this build-up rests on the deterioration of funds and difficulties in developing new large-scale fields. That is, in order to increase exports, you need to make substantial investments in the sector, to which not all players in the commodity market are now ready. This requires will, and when money goes today, then representatives of big business hardly think about tomorrow. Making a profit now is one thing, but investing now to make a profit tomorrow or the day after tomorrow is another.
There is one more reason that sheds light on the transition of the Russian economy to the plane of self-preservation. The reason for this voiced by representatives of the Upper House of Parliament. One of them was Senator Sergey Ryabukhin, who used to work in the Accounting Chamber. According to him, over the past 20 years, from the Russian economy through offshore companies have been withdrawn from 800 billion to 1 trillion dollars. The senator did not explain how he knew about the withdrawal of this particular amount from Russia. If he found out about this just now, then the question is: when did he manage to count and for what, shall we say, introductory data? If he knew about the withdrawal of a trillion even during the Accounts Chamber, what measures were taken to stop the outflow of capital that was immense in its volume, including in the shadow sector?
Instead of answering these questions, Sergei Ryabukhin said that parliamentary hearings were scheduled for November 9 in the Federation Council on 21, which would be devoted to the deoffshorization of the Russian economy. The senators are going to discuss how to return to Russia at the legislative level and make those funds that have been taken to offshore zones at various times to work for the Russian financial system, and how to prevent a new outflow of capital.
Sergey Ryabukhin:
In this case, you can only say one thing: better late than never. At various times, hundreds of billions of rubles were floated to no one knows where, and the senators, thank God, only now decided to get together and discuss the problem, putting forward ideas about how to cover the offshore gate after all ...
You can make an effort and assume that jointly the branches of our government will take a legislative decision that will be aimed at blocking oxygen for those who are going to withdraw funds, as well as for the return of funds previously withdrawn from the economy, bringing to justice the guilty persons. But will new laws work effectively? Hopefully, the withdrawn trillion will suddenly appear again in the Russian financial system, and even begin to work on the growth of the country's GDP, of course, it is possible, but it is unlikely that such hope will become a reality. It was not for this purpose that these funds were withdrawn in order to return back by a sweep of the legislative magic wand. No, new laws in this sector are certainly needed, but in reality they will be able to act (if at all they can in today's conditions) as a barrier to the implementation of new operations to withdraw funds to offshore zones. To return what has already been withdrawn, the current legislators will certainly not have enough power. By the way, if law enforcement agencies had the opportunity to dig deeper, then among (politically correct) we can easily find the ladies and gentlemen who have established ways to withdraw huge amounts of money beyond the cordon among the former representatives of the legislative, executive and judicial corps. But for now, all this is in the “if yes if” mode ...
So, the Russian economy can breathe deeply, if the outflow of capital is finished. Let us hope that it will be so: both that which is “finished” and that which is “full breast”.
In the meantime, the outflow is not finished, you need to turn to other options for maneuvers to increase the rate of economic growth. President Putin spoke about them not long ago. It was about how to effectively dispose of the funds of the National Wealth Fund (NWF), in which today the sum is concentrated in almost 2,85 trillion. rubles. Putin noted that they would not spend all the money from the Fund in order to preserve a “cushion” of economic security, but the authorities are ready to allow 40 percent on infrastructure projects. The main projects for investment from the National Wealth Fund include the modernization of railways (primarily BAM and Transsib), the construction of the Central Ring Road (Central Ring Road), the modernization of the Moscow aviation hub and large-scale investments in the infrastructure of the Far East.
The implementation of such large-scale projects can indeed allow for substantial economic growth with a simultaneous decrease in unemployment and an increase in investment attractiveness. But everything will be so only if the money, frankly speaking, is not stolen, will not be allowed “for the outskirts” with subsequent multi-part corruption scandals, circulated in the RF IC and the media. That is, if the state system for controlling the spending of this huge amount (40% of the National Wealth Fund) is established, if there is also the possibility of broad public control over the implementation of projects, then it will go. If the project starts walking along the old “rakes”, then it remains only to return to the forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development about a “conservative” economy ...
PS While the authorities are looking for ways to solve the problem of low economic growth, Rosnano proposes to build a nano-house to resettle residents from dilapidated housing ... Nanodom is a term from representatives of the said company. The first such house, as announced in the company of Anatoly Chubais, will appear in Moscow after the project is approved by the chief architect of the capital. A nanodode is literally a marvel of engineering: a 15-storey building with “heat recovery and heat recovery” systems, energy efficient glazing, ultraviolet air disinfection systems, and even (oh, Madonna!) Water mineralization machines and steel structures with thermal spraying. But the most important thing is that the “nanodom” will cost the budget about 15% (this is the most conservative estimate) more expensive than the usual house (respectively, the “nano-flat” will be more expensive than the usual Moscow 15%) ...
And we argue about some return of leaked capital ...
Used graphics from the sites profi-forex.org and rusnanonet.ru
Information