Military Review

Afghanistan: ISAF withdrawal at the end of 2014: consequences for Central Asia and Russia

103
The next US military adventure is coming to an end: once again, foreigners are leaving Afghanistan, never conquered by anyone. This time, ISAF, the international security force operating under the auspices of NATO, is leaving the country. The military of the United States and other members of the Alliance is expected to be withdrawn from Afghanistan at the end of 2014. What era will replace the 13-year occupation? What will turn the actual defeat of the ISAF in Afghanistan for Russia and its partners in Central Asia?




Threats to Russia's interests in Central Asia

First of all, we must understand that the withdrawal of coalition troops from Afghanistan for Russia will not mean either a loss or a victory. Despite the fact that Moscow gave the go-ahead for the delivery of goods through Russian territory, this does not mean that the United States was given unconditional support in their war against all sorts of Islamist formations. ISAF Russia problems do not concern. On the other hand, the victory of the Afghan opposition is undesirable for Moscow - and this, with a very high probability, will come true as soon as Hamid Karzai remains without foreign support. Thus, the current war in Afghanistan is alien to Russia, there is no opportunity to influence its course, which means it is best to predict its consequences for Afghanistan itself and for the entire Central Asian region and prepare for the worst case scenario.

The mountains of Afghanistan are the natural southern frontier of the steppe where Russia completely dominated for about 200 years. Currently, the countries of Central Asia are in the zone of exclusive interests of the Kremlin. Many of the Central Asian states are members of the CIS, CSTO, EurAsEC, SCO. At the same time, they border Afghanistan with the main source of instability in the region. This means that integration processes in Central Asia are under threat of disruption, and this goes against the plans of Russia, which sees the Central Asian region as the key to restoring peace in the post-Soviet space. The same threat looms over China: in different conditions, the PRC would be Russia's natural enemy, but now, when Central Asia is on the eve of a major war, Moscow and Beijing are objectively becoming partners. Meanwhile, the third major player in the region, the United States, does not risk anything except the loss of prestige.

The Russian Security Council considers drug trafficking one of the most dangerous challenges of our time. Afghanistan is the main supplier of heroin to Russia, and the Russian Federation is not only a “consumer” of drugs, but also a kind of transshipment base on the way to Europe. However, only a small part of the total “product” gets to the EU, while the 3 / 4 heroin produced in Afghanistan is sold in Russia. Per capita, Russia consumes more heroin than the rest of the world. Without mentioning other factors contributing to the growth of drug trafficking, it is worth highlighting the need to strengthen Russia's southern borders. The abolition of customs borders within the framework of the Customs Union greatly simplifies the delivery of heroin from Afghanistan to Russia. With this in mind, customs control at the border with Kazakhstan in the coming years can be returned. In addition, drug trafficking may prevent Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan from becoming members of the Customs Union. The same can be said about illegal migration: often migrants are used as intermediaries in sending drugs and weapons, and, having opened its borders, Russia admits to its territory foreigners who are not always friendly and openly disposed towards the host country.

"Central Asian Spring"

Despite the fact that there are thousands of foreign troops in 2013 in Afghanistan as of 63 year, the local opposition already has enough forces not only to resist the interventionists, but also to make forays into the territory of neighboring states, including Tajikistan and Uzbekistan . It is hard to imagine how many militants will rush to Central Asia after the need to fight against the ISAF disappears. Most likely, after the withdrawal of the security forces from Afghanistan, the Afghan groups will start wars with each other for possession of certain territories or privileges. At the same time, it is not necessary to overthrow Hamid Karzai: Afghanistan may well turn into Somalia, where the official government barely controls several blocks in the center of the capital. The most experienced and well-trained militants already at this stage, with the support of foreign "sponsoring organizations" in search of earnings, will go abroad. Probably the main destination for them will be Syria, where, according to forecasts by American analyst Max Fisher, the war will not end in the next decade. Already, if the data of the so-called Syrian e-army are true, in Syria around 1000 fighters from Afghanistan are fighting. The Kurds also talk about the clashes with Afghans. In addition to the Middle East, Afghan mercenaries may appear in other regions of the world, from Algeria, Tunisia or Egypt to Russia itself: a particularly dangerous situation is in the Volga region, which in the worst case scenario may turn into a new Chechnya. In addition, the infiltration of militants into Kazakhstan will begin, and then the poorly guarded southern border of Russia will turn into another hot spot.

However, let us return to Afghanistan itself: during the internal confrontation, a part of the factions will be ousted from the country. Militants will find refuge in neighboring countries, including Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and even Kyrgyzstan, although they do not share a border with Afghanistan. Thus, in addition to the targeted delivery of terrorists to remote corners of the world, there will be an unauthorized exodus of militants from Afghanistan. As a result, the conflict will cover the whole region: there have already been several precedents, let us recall at least the civil war in Tajikistan or the Batken events in Kyrgyzstan. The expansion of radical Islamism can be stratified on local conflicts, such as the crisis in Gorno-Badakhshan, political instability and latent ethnic conflict in Kyrgyzstan, the conflict between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan due to the construction of the Rogun hydropower station and other foreign or domestic disputes. All this will happen against the background of economic and social problems, as well as the crisis of statehood in many Central Asian countries. It should be noted that the Party of Islamic Revival is becoming increasingly popular in Tajikistan. In Kyrgyzstan, a growing number of adherents of banned religious movements, professing radical views. In Kazakhstan, a certain grouping of “Soldiers of the Caliphate”, since 2011, has carried out several attacks in major cities such as Aktobe, Astana, Almaty, Atyrau and Taraz. In 2012, the country carried out 5 large-scale anti-terrorist operations. Does Central Asia face the same “spring” as the Arab world?

Afghan knot - an obstacle to the restoration of Russia in its historical the borders

The latest trends in the Central Asian republics pose a direct threat to Russia's geopolitical interests, because reintegration in the post-Soviet space will be suspended, if not reversed. The United States has already taken away Ukraine and the Transcaucasus — two “bridgeheads” for restoring former power — and now they are pushing Russia out of the last “bridgehead” from Central Asia. So far, only there Russian projects find unconditional support, although even in this region they are more and more often perceived with skepticism, directing their gazes towards the West or China.

Unfortunately, the elite of the republics do not understand that there is no arbiter in Central Asia. The United States, when it deployed its military bases in the region and began financing certain governments, upset the delicate balance that had developed over the centuries. Now America is leaving: the Asian Blitzkrieg failed, and the New Silk Road project with the cornerstone as a renewed pro-western Afghanistan collapsed. Nothing, for Washington, the loss is small: Afghanistan is far from the United States, and it does not matter who rules it. In the end, at any moment the situation may change, and then the US will have a new chance to conquer the Central Asian lands. But now the problem of Afghanistan will have to be solved by Russia - the main rival of the United States in the region and the former arbiter. So far, for the most part, the comprador elite of the country understands this little, or, even worse, ignores the looming threat altogether. If Moscow does not respond, the Central Asian nations will have no choice but to join China or ask the United States to return the American troops to the region. Russia has very little time, it is necessary to act promptly and deliberately, otherwise the disaster will befall not only the Central Asian republics, but also us.
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  1. a52333
    a52333 5 November 2013 09: 18 New
    +2
    Unfortunately, you can’t sit on the sidelines. The Central Asian countries themselves will not do anything. And the Mujahideen will reach the Volga region.
    1. bazilio
      bazilio 5 November 2013 11: 09 New
      +2
      Quote: a52333
      The Central Asian countries themselves will not do anything.

      this is not a fact. I can’t say for everyone, but Uzbekistan has real opportunities to rebuff the Mujahideen.
      1. bazilio
        bazilio 5 November 2013 11: 12 New
        +3
        Tajikistan seems to be the weakest point, at least because the border with Afghanistan is very long, mountainous terrain. It is difficult to technically control such a border.
        1. Turkestan
          Turkestan 5 November 2013 19: 44 New
          +4
          The weakest point is the WHOLE Central Asian region. If we take information on the armies of the Central Asian republics, their total strength is somewhere around 150000 personnel. By the way, in the same online directories the strength of the army of the Republic of Uzbekistan totals 50000 troops with these forces it is not possible to cover the strategic and densely populated facilities of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Syrian events have shown how in a short time you can pump up any region of the world with militants and for this you do not need to have an internal apposition. Only in the Syrian Free Army, there are 100000 militants \ not citizens of Syria \, this is not counting the militants of Alkaido. To destroy the Syrian armed forces, the Syrian government needs to have three times the superiority of the troops. If the events in the Central Asian republics follow the Syrian scenario, the consequences for the Central Asian Republics will be catastrophic, since not a single republic \ economically \ nor their small armies are ready to conduct large-scale military operations.
      2. Zaslavsky-S
        Zaslavsky-S 5 November 2013 12: 54 New
        0
        And what are the moods in this regard in Uzbekistan itself?
        1. bazilio
          bazilio 5 November 2013 13: 53 New
          +2
          Quote: Zaslavsky-S
          And what are the moods in this regard in Uzbekistan itself?

          Everything is calm in Baghdad))
        2. UzRus
          UzRus 5 November 2013 15: 07 New
          +3
          Zaslavsky-Swhat mood? Don’t give a damn about Afghanistan! Get out - 100 percent! The main question is where to make money ...
          1. Ascetic
            Ascetic 5 November 2013 16: 15 New
            +5
            Quote: UzRus
            The main question is where to make money ...

            The answer is in Moscow smile

            I look at the photo, Judging by age, these children were born at the time when we entered there. Since then, nothing has changed there. It has become worse.
            1. Shur
              Shur 5 November 2013 20: 57 New
              0
              Growing up quickly. This is to see the kids of those kids.
            2. Versed
              Versed 5 November 2013 22: 04 New
              -1
              Worse, do not console yourself with illusions
        3. The gentleman
          The gentleman 5 November 2013 16: 22 New
          +2
          Quote: Zaslavsky-S
          And what are the moods in this regard in Uzbekistan itself?

          there is no fear, experience exists. Moreover, entering the country is not so easy, therefore, drugs go through Tajikistan, but not through Uzbekistan
    2. Shur
      Shur 5 November 2013 20: 52 New
      +1
      You open the map and look at the Volga region. This is not Chechnya, this is not the outskirts. The author makes incomparable comparisons. Why won't the Stavropol Territory explode? It is easier to set fire to where the coals are still warm - the Caucasus, Central Asia. And then I can say that there is enough support here even without visiting fighters from Afghanistan. They always go where there is less resistance. And the fact that under the fight against "Russian nationalists" the underground slept and dawned on the caliphate is a fact. Kolokoltsev asks for even tougher measures against Russian extremists. Well done, trying. And where was he when the terrorist attacks of recent years took place? And in Volgograd, apparently, too, some kind of nationalist trace? But he only cares about Russian extremism.
  2. Canep
    Canep 5 November 2013 09: 18 New
    +6
    The Americans will not leave Afghanistan, there will remain a small contingent of 20000 people stationed at 9 bases. That is, 3 divisions l / s.
    1. Fin
      Fin 5 November 2013 10: 16 New
      +7
      Quote: Canep
      The Americans will not leave Afghanistan, there will remain a small contingent of 20000 people stationed at 9 bases. That is, 3 divisions l / s.

      Who will refuse to control drug trafficking. Yes and
      a bridgehead just in case you need to keep, Iran is nervous. Taliban trample in Wed. Asia has nowhere else to go. Together with Kazakhstan, it is necessary to establish bases on the borders with Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
    2. avt
      avt 5 November 2013 10: 23 New
      +4
      Quote: Canep
      Americans will not leave Afghanistan

      Really got these spells about the fact that they will leave. Naturally they will cling to the region and crap.
    3. bif
      bif 5 November 2013 10: 45 New
      +2
      Quote: Canep
      The Americans will not leave Afghanistan, there will remain a small contingent of 20000 people stationed at 9 bases. That is, 3 divisions l / s.

      Well, you have to protect the crops of "winter" cabbage ... ugh poppy.
    4. Shur
      Shur 5 November 2013 21: 04 New
      +1
      Yes, intelligence centers need someone to serve. The roads will be paid with weapons and food, just like now. And they will become "brothers" to true fighters and rebels.
  3. Civil
    Civil 5 November 2013 09: 20 New
    +4
    Well, probably already come up with a new concept of defense of the southern borders.
  4. stalkerwalker
    stalkerwalker 5 November 2013 09: 23 New
    +9
    What to do - to negotiate with the sane and buy off scumbags - experience that has been tested for centuries, from the Roman Empire to the Chechen conflict.
    It will not seem enough to anyone - the zone of chaos and instability created by "peacekeepers and supporters of dialectical values" sitting overseas has already spread from the Middle East (Syria) to Afghanistan, including Iraq. And extremely importantly popular explain to the main sponsor - "what is good and what is bad." And the possible consequences if this Arabian sponsor will "mow down the fool."
  5. makarov
    makarov 5 November 2013 09: 28 New
    +5
    Undoubtedly, the withdrawal of troops is a direct and indirect threat. Or rather, a bunch of threats. It will be a constantly smoldering "fuse" at the borders, and it will take a lot of funds and resources to control it.
    1. ARS56
      ARS56 5 November 2013 11: 38 New
      +3
      A direct and clear threat to Russia is the presence of American bases outside the United States. During the American occupation of Afghanistan, drug production grew there more than 40 (forty!) Times. The flow of drugs to Russia destroys not only a lot of money, but also the most important resource - people.
      1. Versed
        Versed 5 November 2013 22: 06 New
        -5
        Do not lie, drug production in Afghanistan decreased by 10 times (back in 2010 according to the UN)
        1. smile
          smile 6 November 2013 01: 03 New
          +1
          Versed
          Even through and through the liberal-lying pedagogy on this subject reports the following:
          Quote:

          Afghanistan's largest producer of raw opium and heroin in recent decades is Afghanistan.
          According to UN data, since the entry of US and NATO military contingents into Afghanistan in 2001 and the beginning of the military operation Enduring Freedom and until the beginning of 2010, the opium poppy harvest in Afghanistan has grown almost 40 times. Today, this country alone produces twice as much opiates as the whole world produced 10 years ago [6].
          On June 29, 2011, the British publication Independent on Sunday confirmed that Afghanistan is the largest producer of heroin and cannabis in the world, and US military operations in this country have not changed much. Afghanistan still accounts for 74% of the global production of raw opium. As the Executive Director of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, Yuri Fedotov, said, “our preliminary data indicate that in 2011 the production of Afghan opium is likely to reach the highest level” [7].

          http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9D%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%80%D0
          %B3%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BB%D1%8F

          So, it’s strange to hear accusations of lying from a person who managed to surpass in truth a certain horse of uncertain color, artificially deprived of the possibility of reproduction. :)))
          1. hommer
            hommer 6 November 2013 12: 01 New
            0
            Quote: smile
            it is strange to hear accusations of lying from a person who managed to surpass in truth a certain horse of indeterminate color, artificially deprived of the possibility of reproduction. :)))


            Test !!! laughing
  6. aszzz888
    aszzz888 5 November 2013 09: 32 New
    +1
    On the other hand, the victory of the Afghan opposition is also undesirable for Moscow - and this is very likely to happen as soon as Hamid Karzai is left without foreign support.


    If Karzai is not banged earlier, before the withdrawal of troops, he will wash off to the merikatos, where he used to sit out.
  7. ed65b
    ed65b 5 November 2013 09: 34 New
    11
    Weaknesses are Tajikistan, with its rotten power, using the border for personal purposes. Only by taking the border under full control of the Russian troops at the far frontier is it possible to stop drug trafficking. The Uzbeks will repulse themselves. the border of them in real life is locked. Turkmen will buy up at the root of the Taliban and militants, keeping calm on its borders. It is not too late to change the mode of rakhmon. Kazakhstan itself is certainly not enthusiastic about drug trafficking and an alien ideology that encompasses the population. Take tight control and, even better, ban the transit of precursors to Afghanistan. This is the task of diplomacy. Conduct special operations to destroy the labarotorium by special forces. To take out the drug lords to judge and send to Kolyma for life. so did the USA and do. They must understand that local princes will not save them from the long arm of justice.
    1. Dimon-chik-79
      Dimon-chik-79 5 November 2013 13: 43 New
      0
      those. Afghan war - 2? So it turns out?
      1. Shur
        Shur 5 November 2013 21: 08 New
        +2
        And to explode in a bus in your city is a 3rd war, no? She goes, open your eyes wider.
    2. Turkestan
      Turkestan 5 November 2013 20: 40 New
      +2
      Not one of the Central Asian republics alone can not densely cover the southern borders of the CIS. They do not have just resources for this. All these issues can be resolved only with the political will of all the leaders of the Central Asian Republics and the Russian Federation.
  8. individual
    individual 5 November 2013 09: 40 New
    +8
    Afghanistan is unpredictable and the time has come to build a "Berlin" wall on its borders.
    Let them themselves "cook" in the heroin kishmish-dried apricots of their non-statehood.
  9. Nero9119
    Nero9119 5 November 2013 09: 51 New
    +2
    The state must be fenced off from Afghanistan, but the state itself is partly to blame for the fact that so much drugs are consumed in the country. Not from a good life, they sit on a needle. The country is very sluggish propaganda against drugs.
    1. alone
      alone 5 November 2013 20: 35 New
      +1
      and how do you imagine building a wall on the foothills of the Pamirs? mainly if they go to the SA, only through Tajikistan. Afghans through Uzbekistan will not go. there is a river near the border. and there are mountains in Tajikistan. there is where to slip, there is where to hide. The whole heaviness will fall on the 201st. And do not forget about the fifth column. In general, if they go to the SA, it will be hot.
  10. Known who
    Known who 5 November 2013 10: 24 New
    +2
    NATO’s withdrawal from Afghanistan may lead to an increase in the import of heroin, which will lead to a significant criminalization of the countries of Central Asia, the strengthening of radical Islamic movements and the creation of a zone of tension in the Urals and the Volga region in the flesh to the northernmost regions of Russia. The division of Russia into European and Siberian parts will be beneficial not only to the United States, but also to China since It will create conditions for quiet expansion and the replacement of owners at mining enterprises, which in turn will lead to an outflow of residents from Siberia and the Far East. Russia may lose all of Siberia and the Far East.
    1. ARS56
      ARS56 5 November 2013 11: 45 New
      +5
      What will increase the import of drugs? Due to changes in logistics? Now military planes through the base in Serbia straight to Geyropa, and then what, caravans through Russia? The United States will not give such a profitable criminal business into the wrong hands. And they will not allow us or the Chinese to destroy it. That's the problem.
      1. wk-083
        wk-083 6 November 2013 02: 23 New
        0
        Quote: ARS56
        What will increase the import of drugs? Due to changes in logistics? Now military planes through the base in Serbia straight to Geyropa, and then what, caravans through Russia? The United States will not give such a profitable criminal business into the wrong hands. And they will not allow us or the Chinese to destroy it. That's the problem.

        Russia needs the death penalty for drugs and terrorism, otherwise we can’t live in peace. And you can test medium-range missiles on Afghan drug lords, or train long-range aviation.
    2. ARS56
      ARS56 5 November 2013 11: 45 New
      0
      What will increase the import of drugs? Due to changes in logistics? Now military planes through the base in Serbia straight to Geyropa, and then what, caravans through Russia? The United States will not give such a profitable criminal business into the wrong hands. And they will not allow us or the Chinese to destroy it. That's the problem.
    3. alone
      alone 5 November 2013 20: 36 New
      +1
      Quote: It is known who
      NATO’s withdrawal from Afghanistan could increase heroin imports,


      heroin is controlled by the West and its puppets. NATO care will not affect this.
  11. Nomad
    Nomad 5 November 2013 10: 37 New
    +8
    Quote: a52333
    The Central Asian countries themselves will not do anything. And the Mujahideen will reach the Volga region

    With light weapons in slippers on bare feet on foot 2-3 thousand km on the steppes and deserts? Very doubtful. You somehow strangely lost sight of Kazakhstan (the 2nd strongest army in the CIS after the Russian).
    1. bazilio
      bazilio 5 November 2013 11: 07 New
      +2
      Quote: Nomad
      You somehow strangely lost sight of Kazakhstan (the 2nd strongest army in the CIS after the Russian

      Nomad, yes, Kazakhstan has a strong army, but here the combat readiness of the army is not a determining factor. The same Americans in Afghanistan and in Iraq suffered significant losses. This will not be a classic war of 2 armies, with a front line, etc., it will be another guerrilla war, accompanied by terrorist attacks, ambushes, etc.
      1. ed65b
        ed65b 5 November 2013 11: 21 New
        +5
        Quote: bazilio
        Quote: Nomad
        You somehow strangely lost sight of Kazakhstan (the 2nd strongest army in the CIS after the Russian

        Nomad, yes, Kazakhstan has a strong army, but here the combat readiness of the army is not a determining factor. The same Americans in Afghanistan and in Iraq suffered significant losses. This will not be a classic war of 2 armies, with a front line, etc., it will be another guerrilla war, accompanied by terrorist attacks, ambushes, etc.

        Without the support of the "civilian population" the bandits will succeed. Only together the army and the people will stop this scum.
      2. marshes
        marshes 5 November 2013 11: 28 New
        +3
        Quote: bazilio
        guerrilla warfare


        To wage a guerrilla war requires the support of the population. Another factor is nationalism, because we hardly digest each other, but we will be happy to "thromb" everything who is not like us, Afghans. There will be a reason to unite in case of repelling an external threat.
        1. bazilio
          bazilio 5 November 2013 11: 59 New
          +4
          Quote: marshes
          In order to wage a guerrilla war, the support of the population is needed. Another factor is nationalism, because we hardly digest each other, but with pleasure we will "thromb" everything who is not like us, the Afghans.

          Yes, but do not forget about internal disagreements within the country and the temptation to use the imported "squad" to solve their personal tasks, such as seizing power, assaulting competitors, etc.
          1. marshes
            marshes 5 November 2013 12: 13 New
            +2
            Quote: bazilio
            Yes, but do not forget about internal disagreements within the country and the temptation to use the imported "squad" to solve their personal tasks, such as seizing power, assaulting competitors, etc.

            Remember the Batkent events, because the interaction of several states allowed to destroy the militants. But after all, the official authorities of the states can also request an import squad under the agreement.
            1. bazilio
              bazilio 5 November 2013 14: 03 New
              +5
              Yes, I just list the options. As for the peculiarities of the relationship between Uzbeks and Kazakhs, then I think it’s time to leave the former differences in the past and establish good neighborly relations.
        2. Walker1975
          Walker1975 5 November 2013 14: 45 New
          0
          Quote: marshes
          To wage a guerrilla war, the support of the population is needed.


          ... Or closed eyes of paid law enforcement agencies
          1. marshes
            marshes 5 November 2013 14: 51 New
            +1
            Quote: Walker1975
            Or closed eyes paid law enforcement

            Not a little important factor is nationalism, what kind of official will tolerate in our region that a foreigner would command him. And if he finds out relatives, shame and shame for life.
            1. Walker1975
              Walker1975 5 November 2013 14: 59 New
              0
              Recall the riots in Biryulyovo. What nationality are the market owners? And which migrants? And now the key question: what nationality is the police, checking services and authorities of the district / city? I think that different. And nothing prevented their close cooperation.
              1. marshes
                marshes 5 November 2013 15: 06 New
                +4
                Quote: Walker1975
                Recall the riots in Biryulyovo.

                Do not compare Russia with the countries of Central Asia. You don’t know how our law enforcement works. In Kazakhstan, they are more or less calm with migrants, they are afraid to become impudent, or they can get it off the local population.
              2. Beck
                Beck 6 November 2013 09: 09 New
                +2
                The author mixed something into a heap and scares everyone from this heap, especially the republic of the SA. Like all kirdyk will come in 2014. Now is not the 90th year when everything was in ruin and any small event could lead to big changes. Times are different. In general, the author of the accents filed from the perspective of a subjective composer, not an objective observer.

                "What will the actual defeat of ISAF in Afghanistan turn into for Russia and its partners in Central Asia?"

                What is the defeat? Troops were deployed to destroy the Taliban movement. And if the Taliban is not destroyed, then its forces are incomparably undermined than before the introduction of troops. Therefore, the troops are withdrawn. And, by the way, troops were not introduced at all to combat drug trafficking.

                And of course, this drug trafficking after the withdrawal of ISAF troops can grow significantly. But these are already problems of the countries adjacent to Afghanistan. If the CA countries and Russia are not able to establish the normal work of their borders, customs, special services, then what does the USA or Honduras have to do with it.

                And by and large, for all countries adjacent to Afghanistan it would be better if the ISAF troops remained in Afghanistan for as long as possible. Because, as a possible brawler, whether large, small, between different groups in Afghanistan, none of the neighbors NEED. And this brawl and its consequences in recent years have been restrained by ISAF troops.

                And the author does not need to scare the inhabitants of the SA with bearded Taliban, I repeat, now it’s not 90 years old, and without the military forces of Russia, maybe only with its material help, the Taliban will receive a worthy rebuff if they turn up.

                But they will not turn up right away in 2014. First they will need to overthrow Karzai, seize the supreme power in Afghanistan, strengthen it, and then think about transferring their teachings to other countries. And whether they want this question. After all, the re-entry of ISAF troops will not be canceled. If the Taliban in 2000 did not go along with their ideas and actions in the affairs of the whole world, they would still rule in Afghanistan. It would be such a mossy corner of human civilization.
      3. Timur
        Timur 5 November 2013 17: 50 New
        0
        especially Uzbekistan, has recently been caught a cold by the Wahhabism virus. remember the attempt on the unforgettable Islam Abduganievich. in a socially unstable region, immunity
        against this infection there is nothing, and nothing prevents to pick up this fever again. hence the bridgehead and base for guerrilla warfare. obscurantism, as you know, can only be treated
        more or less tolerable education. I hasten to please the interested parties; education in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan is still at the level.
    2. ed65b
      ed65b 5 November 2013 11: 20 New
      +2
      Quote: Nomad
      Quote: a52333
      The Central Asian countries themselves will not do anything. And the Mujahideen will reach the Volga region

      With light weapons in slippers on bare feet on foot 2-3 thousand km on the steppes and deserts? Very doubtful. You somehow strangely lost sight of Kazakhstan (the 2nd strongest army in the CIS after the Russian).

      It is Kazakhstan that will have to take the first blow of this tabar. Well, Russia should fully help stop them at long distances.
      1. ramzes1776
        ramzes1776 6 November 2013 00: 33 New
        +2
        Quote: ed65b
        It is Kazakhstan that will have to take the first blow of this tabar. Well, Russia should fully help stop them at long distances.

        Yes, they will not trample the crowd on the plain. It’s in their mountains in the mountains, but here they will be quickly destroyed. The Syrian version will not work. All the people will rise if the army does not cope.
        1. stalkerwalker
          stalkerwalker 6 November 2013 00: 37 New
          +4
          Quote: ramzes1776
          All the people will rise if the army does not cope.

          Who in their right mind is driving civilians under bullets?
    3. Rinat 1
      Rinat 1 5 November 2013 13: 13 New
      +2
      That's for sure, now the Kazakhstan army is in its prime. just not enough combat experience. In principle, the Kazakhstan army may well fight off small terrorist groups
      1. Marek Rozny
        Marek Rozny 5 November 2013 15: 54 New
        +3
        Quote: Rinat 1
        just not enough combat experience.

        therefore, Kazakh soldiers literally do not crawl out of year-round exercises. soldiers no longer peel potatoes and do not paint grass in green, but are engaged only in combat training. moreover, they train not only on their own or with CSTO allies, but also very actively with the SCO and NATO countries.
        here the other day in Germany:
        "ASTANA, November 4 - News Agency-Kazakhstan. Officers of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Kazakhstan took part in the international exercise" Joint Effort-2013 "(" Combined Endeavor-2013 ") in the German city of Grafenwehr, the Kazakh defense ministry said in a statement.

        “Military personnel of NATO member countries, member states of the Partnership for Peace program, observer countries and members of international organizations participated in a large-scale exercise on the interaction of automated control and communication systems. Over a thousand communication and information (cyber) security experts from around the world have improved their interaction skills in the command and control of the company-battalion-brigade during peacekeeping operations, as well as in the conditions of the use of coalition forces, ”the report said.

        According to the terms of the exercise, the Kazakh contingent was a ground battalion as part of the US brigade of international coalition forces. In addition to performing the planned tests (exercises) in the deployed information systems, individual members of the Kazakh delegation took part in thematic seminars on cybersecurity and the use of radio communications.

        According to the Ministry of Defense, the most successful was testing of the Kazakhstan segment of the network by the specialists of Ixia Technologies Europe Ltd using the latest equipment for testing hacking and penetration into computer networks and the Breaking Point Storm systems. Of interest to Kazakhstani specialists was the operational efficiency and fault tolerance of certain hardware and software protection tools (firewall, intrusion prevention system) used in exercises to ensure computer network security. During the tests, it was found that all technical devices brought to the exercises have the necessary potential for use in various command and control levels of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Kazakhstan, stable performance (survivability) and stability during the period of high load and malware activity. The firewall configured by Kazakhstani specialists repelled 1920 computer attacks, which is 97% of the total. In this department notes that all the best results of the exercise before that, including Germany, the USA, Italy, did not exceed 73%.
    4. Marek Rozny
      Marek Rozny 5 November 2013 14: 15 New
      +7
      The Afghan Taliban in the Kazakh steppe have nothing to do, they will be cut out right away. And whoever hides - he will die from the frost.
      But homegrown "Islamists" can become a danger. internal extremists are more dangerous foreign bearded man. Afghans will be killed without mercy, but shooting at their own people is contrary to the Kazakh mentality. Although they will have to be crushed so as not to infect society.
      1. stalkerwalker
        stalkerwalker 5 November 2013 16: 54 New
        +5
        Quote: Marek Rozny
        Internal extremists are more dangerous than external bearded men.

        There is always a "fifth column" ...
        No one considered SANA a weak army. And the mountains in Syria are not enough. But trouble came, and she did not see the end and edge.
      2. Turkestan
        Turkestan 5 November 2013 20: 11 New
        +1
        Dear KAZAKHSTANIS. What is the length of your borders in the south state? All your power structures are not able to cover the south of your border. Militant ambitions are good, but you have to be realistic
        1. Lopatov
          Lopatov 5 November 2013 20: 22 New
          +1
          They will ask for help from Russia. I don’t think there will be problems with this.
          1. stalkerwalker
            stalkerwalker 5 November 2013 21: 07 New
            +4
            Quote: Spade
            They will ask for help from Russia. I don’t think there will be problems with this.

            And if the "second echelon" is trampled across the Caucasus?
            1. Lopatov
              Lopatov 5 November 2013 21: 11 New
              +2
              It's easier there. Unless, of course, you do not take advantage of the particularly clever advice of some about "separating the Caucasus".
        2. Rinat 1
          Rinat 1 6 November 2013 13: 12 New
          +1
          In principle, it is possible to close the entire border; there will be enough forces and means for this. Only everything depends on the level of corruption
      3. Rinat 1
        Rinat 1 6 November 2013 12: 30 New
        +2
        Of course, the Afghan people have nothing to do. The main thing is that we do not have our own.
  12. Nayhas
    Nayhas 5 November 2013 10: 42 New
    +5
    Unfortunately, the elite of the republics does not understand that there is no arbiter in Central Asia.

    The author, wake up, the referee has been there for a long time, this is CHINA! China rules in this region and it will be he who will try to establish control over Afghanistan and most likely he will succeed.
    1. marshes
      marshes 5 November 2013 10: 52 New
      +4
      Quote: Nayhas
      The author, wake up, the arbiter has long been there, this is CHINA

      I add, China still gives out a lot of billions of loans in this region.
      1. bazilio
        bazilio 5 November 2013 11: 21 New
        +3
        Yes, I agree, China is gaining more and more weight in the region. Moreover, from the point of view of ordinary citizens, in economic terms, cooperation with China most often looks more attractive than cooperation with the Russian Federation.
  13. Andrew 447
    Andrew 447 5 November 2013 10: 46 New
    +3
    Monitor the border territory of UAVs 100 km deep in the Republic of Armenia and, if there are threats of crossing the border, to preemptively bomb or launch missile-atr hits. The photo was pleased with the spirit with a sawn window in the store.
    1. tracer
      tracer 6 November 2013 03: 26 New
      -1
      It also pleased me. Probably to make it easier to fall asleep. Well, it’s more convenient for him. However, it’s a shame that all these animals are armed with our weapons.
  14. Strashila
    Strashila 5 November 2013 10: 46 New
    +1
    The Central Asian republics are not Syria, they will fall under the command of radical Islamists once. Considering that we simply do not have equipped borders and today's migration policy allows us to create a fifth column, Russia does not expect anything good. It flashes all at once and throughout the territory. The first bell rang .. Amerikosy felled from Kyrgyzstan.
    1. Rinat 1
      Rinat 1 5 November 2013 13: 19 New
      +3
      Firstly, the border has just been arranged. And secondly, the armies of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are well trained and can fight back. And finally, I will not say for other Central Asian states, but in Kazakhstan there is no ground for terrorism.
      1. stalkerwalker
        stalkerwalker 5 November 2013 16: 57 New
        +5
        Quote: Rinat 1
        Firstly, the border has just been arranged. And secondly, the armies of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are well trained, and can fight back

        The worst thing is to underestimate the enemy.
        In 1979, too, no serious problems were foreseen, at least in the military aspect.
      2. bazilio
        bazilio 5 November 2013 18: 27 New
        0
        Quote: Rinat 1
        I will not say for other Central Asian states, but in Kazakhstan there is no ground for terrorism.

        This is good, it pleases, the main thing is not to lose vigilance, otherwise this soil will help to create
  15. pensioner
    pensioner 5 November 2013 11: 11 New
    +2
    What era will replace the 13-year occupation?
    Which one? It is known what - the Middle Ages. Only the Middle Ages with machine guns, RPGs and heroin. Everyone is startled.
  16. ZU-23
    ZU-23 5 November 2013 11: 28 New
    +4
    Yeah, the Afghans will directly gather in a column of 4 and go to Russia))), if there is no corruption and drugs on the border, everything will be calm, so more special services are needed at the border in these parts.
  17. Standard Oil
    Standard Oil 5 November 2013 11: 39 New
    0
    It's interesting, the Americans sat in Afghanistan, added to the list of losers, but what's the point, well, yes, it is clear that some officers of both the army and intelligence services profited from the drug trade, and what in fact can they show? They can't say what, in time Their stay in Afghanistan, drug trafficking increased several times? What did they do there to present it as an achievement? The Taliban won? No. The country was settled? can they “pull it out and put it on the table?” Nothing, absolutely nothing.
  18. Asan Ata
    Asan Ata 5 November 2013 11: 41 New
    +5
    The Mughals at one time easily bent the Highlanders, do not forget. Now China will do it. He is already present in Tajikistan, I think, in speed, China will join the border guard and Chinese special forces will steer in Tajikistan. In Afghanistan, China will introduce a million to half a million soldiers and once and for all finish the Afghans. The benefits for China are enormous: a test of strength — you have to fire at your army, end the Uyghur traffic of weapons and militants (especially since it is important after the Tiananmen), bring the amers away to Arabistan, take India in a bag, get direct access to Iran’s oil, etc. . So the Chinese will take on the dirty work, and Russia must, without delay, pull up its armed forces and become a superpower, well, just in case. wink
    1. rennim
      rennim 5 November 2013 13: 01 New
      -2
      I think that China will not bring in any "one million or half a million soldiers. It will just ... throw a hydrogen bomb."
    2. Andrew 447
      Andrew 447 5 November 2013 13: 04 New
      +1
      China in Afghanistan, this is unrealistic. China will not climb into this with an unpredictable ending and will not enter its troops.
      1. Nayhas
        Nayhas 5 November 2013 13: 17 New
        +1
        Quote: Andrey 447
        China in Afghanistan, this is unrealistic. China will not climb into this with an unpredictable ending and will not enter its troops.

        And why the hell do you think China so clearly surrounds Afghanistan? From the south through Pakistan, from the north through Tajikistan?
        1. Andrew 447
          Andrew 447 5 November 2013 13: 29 New
          0
          And why the hell do you think China so clearly surrounds Afghanistan? From the south through Pakistan, from the north through Tajikistan? [/ Quote] Please examples !!!
          1. Nayhas
            Nayhas 5 November 2013 17: 31 New
            0
            Quote: Andrey 447
            Please examples !!!

            Examples of what? That Tajikistan is becoming a province of China and that Pakistan has become pro-Chinese from a pro-American country? Type in the network in the search bar China and Tajikistan, as well as China and Pakistan continue to read and read ...
      2. Walker1975
        Walker1975 5 November 2013 14: 50 New
        +1
        Why unpredictable? I bet on China
    3. Walker1975
      Walker1975 5 November 2013 14: 49 New
      0
      Yes. Plus. In the highlands, a small contingent against the partisans will do nothing, but if the army enters into half a million and rigidly blocks all the crossings, and if this army also turns a blind eye to the violation of human rights, clearing out particularly dissenting leaders of resistance, then China has every chance.
      1. Nayhas
        Nayhas 5 November 2013 17: 34 New
        +1
        Quote: Walker1975
        Yes. Plus. In the highlands, a small contingent against the partisans will do nothing, but if the army enters into half a million and rigidly blocks all the crossings, and if this army also turns a blind eye to the violation of human rights, clearing out particularly dissenting leaders of resistance, then China has every chance.

        It will include more than one army, as well as thousands of Chinese peasants.
        PS: and what is there that Yanukovych conceived on the lease of land to the Chinese?
        1. Walker1975
          Walker1975 5 November 2013 17: 58 New
          0
          Allocated a piece to them for rent. In Ukraine, Thank God, a strong food industry and rich agricultural land. We can feed ourselves and our neighbors :)
    4. stalkerwalker
      stalkerwalker 5 November 2013 16: 59 New
      +4
      Quote: Asan Ata
      In Afghanistan, China will introduce a million to half a million soldiers and once and for all finish the Afghans

      Why does China need this?
  19. Starfish
    Starfish 5 November 2013 11: 53 New
    +4
    in the photo, at the bottom left - the spitting image of Abdullah from the "White Sun of the Desert". but on the subject

    "What will the actual defeat of ISAF in Afghanistan turn into for Russia and its partners in Central Asia?"

    why did the author assume that they were defeated there? maybe the true goals were completely different than those that were loudly stated.
    What happened before the invasion of Afghanistan? the victorious Taliban, almost completely destroying heroin production. which survived only on the territory of the northern alliance. the Taliban began to build a functioning state, albeit on a wild basis. that was unacceptable to the West. they invaded, they destroyed Afghanistan completely as a state (now it’s just a territory like Somalia) and began to intensively grow drugs.
    the goal is reached, you can leave.
    1. mountain
      mountain 5 November 2013 13: 33 New
      0
      Starfish, I completely agree with you. My suggestion is the following, to return the missiles to Cuba and other friendly countries, to unleash a small war near the borders with America, at the expense of the oppressed states, and it is possible inside, for example, to support the Indians so that they ask the states to free the lands originally owned by them. And help them in their aspirations. This is so that the states do not get bored. And we can explain to China that they can test their new weapons not licensed and acquired by copying in A ..... In the same place they will work out the technique of fighting in the mountains. And at this time we need to strengthen our southern borders.
  20. Semurg
    Semurg 5 November 2013 13: 12 New
    +2
    the British tried three times to occupy Afghanistan, the USSR tried, the United States tries. after the defeat and withdrawal, the Afghans begin to sort things out among themselves and especially do not climb their neighbors. Small gangs that will penetrate into Central Asia will be destroyed. The only weak spot poorly controlled by the authorities is mountainous Badakhshan where militants can get support on the spot, but China is nearby and they don’t think it is necessary and if they help Rakhmon well, the Russian base in Tajikistan is probably worth it. In Turkmenistan there is no information about their armed forces, but they will probably fight well for their land. The Uzbeks also do not smile to live as in Afghanistan and they will keep the border. Kazakhstan, not bordering Afghanistan, in case of aggression in Central Asia, will help the Central Asian authorities in rear support and possibly troops of the CSTO members.
  21. diver1977
    diver1977 5 November 2013 13: 58 New
    +2
    Given the political will, I’m not sure that it is impossible to stop drug trafficking from Afghanistan. And when there is no money from drugs, there will be nothing to fight. To impose an embargo on the supply of weapons, to bombard all plantations with drugs with chemicals, to set up reconnaissance aircraft to search for new plantations and to begin the gradual withdrawal of the country from the Middle Ages. One country cannot solve such a problem, it requires coordinated efforts of the world community.
  22. Dimon-chik-79
    Dimon-chik-79 5 November 2013 14: 03 New
    -1
    Whoever knows why we need this feudal Asia with all its machine guns, heroins, Wahhabis, grenade launchers, partisans? Isn't it enough for the customs union of Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia (maybe it would be better to send forces to keep brotherly Ukraine)? Why not fenced off from this "halera" with a high concrete fence, a thorn in three rows and other frills in the spirit of the 21st century, is that really so impossible? And let them cook in their own cauldron as much and as desired in accordance with their mentality and traditions? After all, this gangrene can destroy us in the end?
    1. Stasi
      Stasi 5 November 2013 14: 34 New
      +2
      You are wrong, to fence off the wall from Central Asia will not work in any case. The thing is that if we completely leave there, absolute chaos will begin there, all these republics will turn into hot spots and we will have to act by military measures. Also, in the event of our departure, China will take our place there, which will simply absorb the whole of Central Asia and make it a part of itself. We need to strengthen the borders of Tajikistan in every way and put our border guards on its guard. Other measures may well be taken by our special services, which have good positions both in the Central Asian republics and in Afghanistan. Throwing Central Asia means giving it to the souls for slaughter, the consequences are easy to guess. So your idea is unreasonable.
      1. UzRus
        UzRus 5 November 2013 15: 04 New
        0
        The Stasi and China are already making leaps and bounds towards "occupying territories." He does it especially well in Tajikistan.
  23. Marek Rozny
    Marek Rozny 5 November 2013 14: 26 New
    +2
    Kazakh-Turkmen border. Constructed by a solid.
    1. Marek Rozny
      Marek Rozny 5 November 2013 14: 27 New
      +1
      Kazakh-Uzbek border. Constructed by a solid.
      1. Marek Rozny
        Marek Rozny 5 November 2013 14: 29 New
        +3
        And only on the border with Kyrgyzstan there is no continuous fence. And will not be. Better we help them Kyrgyz-Chinese, Kyrgyz-Tajik and Kyrgyz-Uzbek borders to equip.
      2. marshes
        marshes 5 November 2013 14: 53 New
        +3
        The walls are near or in the village. And so basically as in another photo that with Turkmenistan. By the way, smart outposts are now being built.
  24. UzRus
    UzRus 5 November 2013 14: 57 New
    +1
    What does the exit of the Pen-Do-ows and their sixes from Afghanistan threaten Uzbekistan? Practically nothing! We were "under stress" before, when the Taliban ruled there. In 2010, we built the Hairaton-Mazar-i-Sharif railway with a length of 72 km, and now cargo is going to Afghanistan. On it, of course, and partially, the "winners" are displayed. In principle, North Afghan has always been a fairly calm place, because the inhabitants there are mostly ethnic Uzbeks.
  25. MaKeNa
    MaKeNa 5 November 2013 18: 12 New
    +3
    The problem must be resolved in a comprehensive way. Agree with those who began to relate to us better after the American occupation, but there are such! In general, to offer them peace for centuries and build, build, build. And leave the military component to the borders, while the border is a sieve and a through yard, it’s FUNNY to talk about some serious fight against drugs!
    1. wk-083
      wk-083 6 November 2013 02: 41 New
      0
      Right! Doors wide open.
  26. Ivanovich47
    Ivanovich47 5 November 2013 18: 34 New
    +1
    America, as always and wherever it goes, acts like an elephant in a china shop. And after it, only shards. Considering the fact that before the entry of American troops into Afghanistan, the Taliban effectively fought against drug trafficking, it may wait until the Taliban again take power in the camp. And agree on the fight against drugs. The Americans did not agree. They are the chief in the world. They have a bullet - an argument.
  27. Dmitriy1975
    Dmitriy1975 5 November 2013 19: 00 New
    -1
    On the topic, NATO will not completely withdraw the contingent, and therefore China will not climb there as long as NATO members are there, I will walk through the Central Asian countries, Turkmenistan is a dark horse, well, very dark, Tajikistan - as such an army exists only on paper, the level of training is not at all , in fact, the armed forces of Tajikistan are close to the armed militia, we add here the clannishness inherent in all Central Asian states, Kyrgyzstan is close to Tajikistan, it is not much superior to it in terms of special forces. units, the combined-arms structure is very weak, Uzbekistan is not much better than the previous ones in the combined-arms plan, good enough BUT few specials. units, Kazakhstan is the most powerful military component in Central Asia at the moment, but there are also many problems in the combined arms plan, border guards can represent a real force. KNB troops, aero-mobile units, not a bad enough component of the Air Force. The main problem is that in the event of such aggression, which is considered in the article, only Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan will work at the level of the Operational Headquarters, for the rest, the feeling of their own arrogance and fear of "independence" will not allow, and Tajiks have already shown themselves in 93 -96 years as "brothers" in arms.
  28. Lushnik
    Lushnik 5 November 2013 19: 56 New
    0
    Our interests would be consistent with the withdrawal of the coalition troops in Tajikistan.
    1. Shur
      Shur 5 November 2013 21: 18 New
      +3
      It is not even the "leaving" itself that is dangerous (these leave only by force), but the "arrival" of scoundrels in a new capacity. Return to the old practice of "sponsoring jihad". The withdrawal will not happen by itself, it is just the withdrawal of most of the troops. Why keep them now without one piece. There are lots of cannon fodder at low prices. Then I read an article about our specialists in Afghanistan, who offered to cover the bases of amers in Pakistan. On which they trained the mujahideen. Here is the correct train of thought .. But for one thing, attract loyalists for these purposes. And there is unacceptable damage and other consequences. And in the case of this, at the posts of protection and coordination of the drug phase, training bases, etc.
      1. stalkerwalker
        stalkerwalker 5 November 2013 21: 30 New
        +5
        Quote: Shur
        Then I read an article about our specialists in Afghanistan, who suggested covering amer bases in Pakistan.

        Good practice that Israel has been practicing all the time.
  29. Arkan
    Arkan 5 November 2013 20: 27 New
    +1
    Crush the Taliban into warring clans, support sane forces among the Afghans.
    1. alone
      alone 5 November 2013 20: 42 New
      0
      Quote: Arkan
      Crush the Taliban into warring clans, support sane forces among the Afghans.


      this is utopia. you are unfamiliar with the principles of the Taliban teachings. for them there is no concept of clans, teips, nationality. there are Taliban and that’s all.
  30. marshes
    marshes 5 November 2013 20: 34 New
    +2
    At the same time, my sister and family of Ahmad Shah Masoud lived in Almaty. Also, negotiations were held in the city between the leaders of the Northern Alliance and our diplomats.
  31. Director
    Director 5 November 2013 20: 48 New
    -1
    The geopolitical concept in the region has changed. Obama relied on Iran. The sanctions will be lifted in the coming months. If this alliance is viable, Iran will begin to rapidly grow and build up influence in the region. The main players in Central Asia will be Iran and China opposing it.
    1. Shur
      Shur 5 November 2013 21: 35 New
      0
      Are Saudis observers? Interesting idea. China receives a lot of oil from Iran, wants to receive even more. Perhaps pressure and confrontation with Iran will help in this. An interesting train of thought.
  32. Demetrius
    Demetrius 5 November 2013 20: 50 New
    -1
    Quote: MaKeNa
    The USA has already taken away Ukraine and Transcaucasia - two "bridgeheads" for restoration of former power


    How is such a "power" ?????????
  33. Arkan
    Arkan 5 November 2013 21: 01 New
    0
    Quote: lonely
    Quote: Arkan
    Crush the Taliban into warring clans, support sane forces among the Afghans.


    this is utopia. you are unfamiliar with the principles of the Taliban teachings. for them there is no concept of clans, teips, nationality. there are Taliban and that’s all.

    This is not utopia, the Taliban are ordinary people, with their weaknesses ...
  34. UVB
    UVB 5 November 2013 21: 35 New
    +3
    Carry out "carpet bombing" of all poppy plantations with herbicides! This is a concrete and effective way to combat drug trafficking.
  35. Nero9119
    Nero9119 5 November 2013 21: 55 New
    +2
    Quote: UVB
    Carry out "carpet bombing" of all poppy plantations with herbicides! This is a concrete and effective way to combat drug trafficking.

    They will plant new plantations, this is not a solution. There are other ways to deal with drug trafficking. Traffic comes to us through the countries of Asia - Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan. It is in these countries that there is almost no order. But how to deal with this, I have no ideas. Sometimes the feeling that Afghanistan just needs to be burned out so that the whole country is empty and without a population. Sorry for such aggressive and stupid thoughts.
    1. wk-083
      wk-083 6 November 2013 02: 52 New
      0
      Why stupid, in my opinion, humanity will come to this. am
  36. Versed
    Versed 5 November 2013 22: 12 New
    -6
    Americans including ISAF (International Security Forces) and did not plan to seize Afghanistan, unlike the USSR.

    The Afghan war was not an adventure, but the right decision, it was the only way to stop the lawlessness that was there before 2001.
    1. Dmitriy1975
      Dmitriy1975 5 November 2013 22: 44 New
      0
      For especially gifted individuals, the USSR never planned to capture Afghanistan, and did not capture it, were you there until 2001? If possible, then in more detail about the "lawlessness". When you present the theory of Afghan "lawlessness", do not forget about the eastern mentality and Islam. So, by the way, in the eyes of the Hindus, we are also outrageous. eating beef.
      1. Versed
        Versed 6 November 2013 00: 04 New
        -4
        Stoning women with stones, preventing children from learning - this mess is already enough to bring order to this country. And do not tell fables about the eastern mentality.
        The USSR climbed into Afghanistan precisely for the purpose of capture and nothing else.
        1. Hudo
          Hudo 6 November 2013 00: 08 New
          +1
          Quote: Versed
          The USSR climbed into Afghanistan precisely for the purpose of capture and nothing else


          And what exactly did he capture there or plan to capture? Enlighten me, please.
        2. stalkerwalker
          stalkerwalker 6 November 2013 00: 09 New
          +5
          Quote: Versed
          Stoning women with stones, preventing children from learning - this mess is already enough to bring order to this country.

          Also, those who do not like the Russian law on the prohibition of gay propaganda also believe.
          Quote: Versed
          The USSR climbed into Afghanistan precisely for the purpose of capture and nothing else.

          It’s even cooler and sadder ...
          Question: "How old were you in 1979?"
        3. Dmitriy1975
          Dmitriy1975 6 November 2013 09: 29 New
          -1
          So you will excuse their women with stones for adultery for 900 years already, and the Persian Shah removed the skin from his beloved wife alive, because she dared to just raise her head in the presence of Przewalski, are you familiar with the eastern mentality? I am, yes, familiar, as I have lived all my life in the Middle East and Central Asia. NATO forces put things in order across the river? Yes, they can confidently control only their bases and nothing more. But yours here is this "the USSR climbed into Afghanistan precisely for the purpose of seizure and nothing else" - is that you some tolerast in the classroom at school told, or is it just your conclusion? If yours is straightforward, but you are a poor-minded person, and therefore allow me to take my leave, and your avatar is funny, you are probably one of those "special forces of the forum"?
        4. Rinat 1
          Rinat 1 6 November 2013 12: 25 New
          0
          Versed in my opinion you need to read the story. The USSR there was no need to capture this state. The Afghan government itself, and moreover, several times asked for help. But NATO forces did not improve anything there, but on the contrary worsened the situation there. When there was a Limited Continent in the DRA there were schools, hospitals, etc. And what were NATO forces building there. Only increased poppy plantations.
  37. Vovavvs
    Vovavvs 6 November 2013 08: 27 New
    0
    Judging by the way those surrounded in Stalingra flee .., tfu, Kabul, not a single American will remain in Afghanistan. for our part, it’s just necessary to organize Karzai’s material and technical support, otherwise it will work out like with Najibullah ...
    1. Dmitriy1975
      Dmitriy1975 6 November 2013 09: 14 New
      -1
      Well, organize it, withdraw money from your bank account and organize it, you don’t have to turn over the bags, but with Karzai the same thing will happen, but in Afghanistan there will be more than one thousand representatives of NATO, you think they dumped the dough there so just like that ?
  38. MaKeNa
    MaKeNa 6 November 2013 19: 30 New
    0
    As the great Russian poet said, "You can't see a face face to face, you can see a big one at a distance!" The American aggression in Afghanistan allowed the Afghans to compare the last two wars - against the USSR and against the United States, and the majority made a conclusion - but the "shuravi" wanted to help us, they built schools, factories and they were worthy fighters. They are waiting for us in peace in Afghanistan. Here is our way out of this situation.
  39. ko88
    ko88 7 November 2013 00: 38 New
    0
    it’s even scary to think what will happen if the Americans and the company get washed away from there.