To deny the merits of GDP to Russia is quite difficult. At the end of the 90-s Russia came to the point, after which there was already a disaster. And the people could not save the country. Remember the 90-e, all except bandyukov, sit behind bars and iron doors. "New Russians" rob people, wages are not paid, meager pensions are delayed. In-white business can not be due to the fact that the taxes ate everything you get, but still have to stay. As a result, "protection" and rampant organized crime. And everyone is ready to tear his neighbor's teeth in order to live a day longer than him. The people, in fact, was no longer there. It was a gathering of intimidated sheep, each of which was concerned only with their own survival. And it was done purposefully. They will tell me that the Communist Party of the Russian Federation could have won the elections and then ... And then what? In 96, did Zyuganov actually win the election and what did he become president? And, perhaps, thank God that he did not. Because the Communist Party of the "Communists" there is only one name. The same petty-bourgeois party with its own business interests and pocket oligarchs. And, anyway, tied to the project of the destruction of Russia, the events of 93 of the year showed it well. I think that according to the plans of the rulers of the world of Russia in the 21 century should not be, and to prevent this, as you see, no one except the government could.
But here Russia is once again lucky. It became clear to Abramovich, Deripaska, Gref and their ilk that after the collapse of the country they would be asked to share unjustly acquired. Well, really, for them or something the country was falling apart, strained? And so many oligarchs are not needed for the role of effective managers. It would be enough for Chubais, Berezovsky, Khodorkovsky and another two-three "close" to the Family. The oligarchs did not want to share, and therefore they managed to approach the EBN in such a way that this drunk did the only good deed in his life. Namely, out of the project of the destruction of Russia. The cavalry attack on the nationalization of the Central Bank in 98 was unsuccessful. By the way, the Duma’s opposition in this matter clearly shows what the Communist Party of the Russian Federation is. Of course, the blocking of this issue by the Duma was only the tip of the iceberg of the struggle that unfolded in the upper ranks of the Russian Federation. Manifestations of this struggle were, for example, kicking in Yugoslavia with the seizure of airborne paratroopers, the turn of the Primakov aircraft, the same crisis of 98 of the year, which “put” Yeltsin in place, showing that it was impossible to go against the owners. Yeltsin, who had bucked up, of course, became displeased. It was necessary to send him to an honorable retirement (and how else could the leader of a nuclear power leave) and change to a more loyal one, which resulted in Operation Successor, conducted by the hands of Berezovsky, who needed a presiding officer. To not get under your feet and did not interfere with the finish work. The main requirements were as follows. The candidate should not be a public politician. After all, all public politicians were compromised, but, most importantly, behind them were some forces that could lead their game. The second is the presence of dirt to keep it on a short leash. The third is charisma and patriotism. Still, Zyuganov’s iron communist electorate could create problems, as was the case in 96. A certain former (or not former) KGB colonel met these requirements, which is already a good reason for liberal harassment, if that, but at the same time, will appeal to voters who are tired of the mess. Even better, he came from the previously defeated St. Petersburg clan Sobchak, i.e. had no political or economic power behind him. But on the other hand he had a compromising cart for his work in this clan. Well, the charisma of GDP also has to the full. Therefore, it is not strange that Berezovsky himself blessed the presidency of the GDP.
But BAB was inattentive. I don’t know when the GDP was mixed with the home-grown oligarchs, but after the election battles subsided, accompanied by house bombings with promises to “drown in the outhouse” of a relatively successful second Chechnya and patriotic rhetoric, it turned out that the successor didn’t want to kill Russia . And on the contrary, he begins to carry out actions in relation to the strengthening of its sovereignty, or rather, the attainment of such. GDP did not respond to warnings like “Kursk” (“it sank”). Then they tried to overthrow him, using manual mass media, unleashing Sobchak's dirt. But the media were not only the team of BAB, but also other oligarchs. Under their cover, the GDP turned into a counterattack using tried and tested methods of the KGB. As a result, Khodorkovsky found himself on the bench, and Gusinsky and BAB were in exile. These are just the main figures. Further, the GDP carried out tax law reform. Only one "simplified" made for the destruction of organized crime more than a hundred riot police combined. Businessmen were now quite able to seek help from the competent authorities, instead of paying the "roof", without fear that their dark frauds with black bookkeeping would emerge. Could deal with defaulters and scam through the courts and the bailiff service. As a result, many authorities realized that soon all of them would end. Maybe they were told that it was time to change into official chairs or develop a legal business. And for those who did not understand, they applied the same effective methods of the KGB. The defeat of the Komsomol obschak, whose leaders in the country camps took the oath of allegiance from the younger generation, is memorable. But it was earlier, and it ended with the death of the leader of the obschak in the SIZO.
All this led to the fact that in 2003-2008 in Russia, breathing has become much easier for both business and ordinary people. Legal small business gave new, well-paid jobs. And the abolition of the production sharing agreement allowed us to increase the patches in the public sector, making the civil service again a prestigious job, and solve the problems of paying pensions and salaries to state employees. Improved crime situation. Rising oil prices allowed to invest in the rearmament of the armed forces. Having received the state order, almost dead enterprises of the military industrial complex came to life, and state support and bank loans, which were fattening on the money passing through them, allowed to raise to the water part of the almost drowned industrial enterprises.
But against the background of all this, of course, the puff of the “national” president with figures like Chubais, Gaidar looked strange, a continuation of the “dancing on the bones” of the so-called “variety” with foolish songs, series and “90 Houses” started in 2's , bloating states of oligarchs close to power, the collapse of education, etc. But then, on the wave of economic growth, it seemed not so terrible, they say, just the hands have not reached yet.
Then the “crisis” of 2008 began. I do not know how others, but I did not feel for myself neither in 2008 nor in 2009 any consequences of this crisis. At least, there were definitely no significant consequences. But here in the surrounding events were very unpleasant moments. The first of them remembered the news of the raider seizure of NK "Alliance" of a large mining company in the Far East - the Artel miners Amur. This enterprise, which not only survived 90, but also gave, on a par with KnAAPO (which, by the way, was also “brought” under the Sukhoi holding), the main part of the regional income budget at that time. In addition to the mines themselves, which were very well equipped, Artel had various industries - agricultural, food processing, the production of synthetic detergents, a chain of stores, etc. Only in Khabarovsk there were 2 bases, which, in terms of size and equipment, were probably not inferior to the Khabarovsk-2 locomotive depot. The company had its own airline with a fleet of aircraft up to An-26 inclusive. The management of the Artel supported the Amur ice hockey team and the Nugget women's volleyball team, which contained the CYL hockey team. At the beginning of 2000, the mines' workmen could earn a one-room apartment for the season. Many drinking men thus supported families, leaving for the mines, where they lived on full support, and the earned money was paid to the families. Perhaps, the top of the activity of the Amur AS was the construction of the Platinum Arena sports center in Khabarovsk, which was at that time the “best of the Urals”, according to the expressions of the representatives of the hockey squads who visited the guest games. Perhaps it was done in vain. Because soon after the end of construction, Artel started having problems. Somehow it suddenly turned out that large stakes in the company were bought from the workers and top managers. Then, suddenly, the idea of building a processing plant for obtaining ore gold died out after it was denied loans for this project. Then problems began with new development sites. And, finally, environmentalists "ran" over Artel. Which threatened to revoke mining licenses due to violations of environmental legislation. In order to cope with the misfortune, the leadership of Artel involved its connections in the regional government. As a result, inspectors were accused of extorting bribes and arrested. But after a while they were transferred to Moscow, where they were released, and the extortion case was stopped. After that, the Alliance used heavy artillery. Head of Artel V. Lopatyuk was accused of financial fraud, a criminal case was brought against him, as a result he was forced to emigrate. I suspect that his personal friendship with Governor V. played a significant role here. Ishaev. Because, oddly enough, he retained his blocking stake. But the main owner, after his escape, became NK "Alliance". As a result of this raider seizure, the Amur AS now got rid of all non-core assets, ceased supporting sports teams, which led to the fact that Nugget could not play in the top division, and before that, the girls had not been paid for a year . Of course, there is no talk of development of mining. True, the new owner is all worn with the project of "ore gold", but it has been worn for about five years now, but there is no point in it. At the enterprise, judging by the constant search for workers, personnel turnover has begun.
The second remarkable fact I can call the destruction of the airline "Dalavia". I can not say that it was as outstanding as the previous one. There were flaws in his work. But, at the very least, the company closed the years with a profit, leased modern Russian Tu-204 and Tu-214 aircraft, there were no wage delays, a new airport complex was built, flight safety was high. It all started with the fact that AK took away a new airport complex and refueling facilities in favor of Alliance Oil Company. Why was the privatization procedure started? Blocked by Governor V. Ishaev, who created the Federal State Unitary Enterprise "Dalavia". But later, for the compliance of the AK leadership, a criminal case was opened against its leaders on financial frauds with leasing aircraft. As far as I know, no one is sitting on it, but in the light of the events that have taken place, this is not surprising. Since the privatization of the company was nevertheless carried out, and the following year, management changed in AK. At the head of the campaign, some Moscow "Varangians" were put in, which successfully for one and a half of the financial year led the company from profitability to billions of dollars in debt. True, these "Varyags" in Khabarovsk were seen only once, when they appointed performers on the ground after the change of leadership. After that they went to the Moscow underground. Yes, so successfully that even the governor of the region could not reach them when he tried to intervene in the situation with the only major regional airline. To quickly finish the campaign, Dalcombank OJSC refused to provide collateral for leased aircraft. As a result, Dalavia was declared bankrupt with a payable of 1,4 billion rubles and a receivable of 900 million rubles. As you can see, with the destruction of the campaign was in a hurry. Since its debts are clearly not comparable with the debts of other bankrupt AKs, amounting to tens of billions of rubles. At the same time, most of the aircraft and crews were transferred to AK Vladavia, which, in turn, was later absorbed by Aeroflot. By the way, the consequences of this scheme became fatal for Dalcombank, because in retaliation for refusing to provide collateral, the governor gave the bank a “panic”, giving an unspoken indication of withdrawal of funds from regional enterprises from it, which led to an excessive withdrawal of money by private investors. Then the bank resisted, taking a large loan from one of the foreign banks. Then this debt was resold to MTS Bank and was used to seize Dalcombank OJSC.
These are only those seizures that I could observe, so to speak, from within the captured enterprises (not myself, but through friends in them who worked at fairly high posts). A common thread in all these events are the schemes of raider seizure of property in favor of Moscow structures (Aeroflot) and big business (NK Alliance) using the administrative power resource. These events took place against the background of such events as a sharp rise in prices for fuel and utility services, which outpaced the growth in prices for all goods and essential goods in relation to the growth in wages. Strengthening bureaucratic arbitrariness and corruption.
With the support of a powerful repressive machine, created during the defeat of organized crime and raider schemes, all standing and maintaining the independence of the enterprise are captured. Officials and security officials occupy the place before the bandits who protected the small business. With that, unlike organized crime, the bureaucratic "roof" does not protect against anything, but only consumes and creates additional barriers. Extremely heavy burden on small business lay the creation of self-regulatory organizations. Who, consuming the money of their members, give nothing in return. Moreover, through these organizations an enormous amount of money is withdrawn from business. After all, for example, in the construction industry, the contribution to the compensation fund is 300 thousand rubles, regardless of what and how much the organization is doing. In addition to this and monthly membership fees, all working SROs require their members to insure liability. Moreover, in some organizations, insurance has several levels, both common to all members at the SRO level, and private. But at the same SRO and can not give anything. Because they work according to strictly prescribed laws and regulations and can not bring anything from themselves into the work of the industry (except for tightening the norms established by the state, but whoever does this, no one wants to lose revenues because of the withdrawal of SRO members). Therefore, there is no self-regulation in these organizations. It is just another supervisory authority and a body for pumping funds out of business. Moreover, the quality of supervision by an SRO is no better than by licensing commissions. Since it is not a secret that commercial SROs exist in all spheres of activity, which, apart from money, require nothing more from their members. All this, as well as an increase in fees to the FIU from the wage fund, dealt a severe blow to small businesses, again forcing it to go into the shadows and creating conditions for a new round of organized crime, but on new principles - bureaucratic.
What conclusions can we draw from the foregoing? In the early 2000s, the oligarchs defended Russia from destruction, but now considered that they had already invested enough in ensuring stability and protecting their feeding trough. And they began to play their favorite game - to rob others around. What is the role of GDP in events unfolding after 2008? I can’t say this unambiguously. First, from 2008 to 2012, GDP was not officially the country's leader. It is rather difficult to assess how sincere the differences between DAM and GDP on the issue of Libya, the reform of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and other high-profile issues of “interregnum” were. And how serious were the attempts to prevent Putin from taking the presidency again. The preservation by DAM of the prime minister's position during the year casts a serious shadow on these disagreements. Along with the above negativity, during this time events such as the war in South Ossetia, support to Syria in its struggle against NATO intervention, the Nord Stream was put into operation, the army is reequipped and fleet. The state opposes the LGBT revolution, it is frozen, perhaps temporarily, the introduction of juvenile justice, Medvedev's de-Stalinization did not pass.
The situation seems to me in this light. Russia is now a besieged fortress, which protects the good that has been stolen from the people by oligarchs. This is evidenced by the strengthening of the country's defense, the setting of a barrier to the destruction of the family, the support of Syria. But at the same time, Russia is part of the capitalist world. This is evidenced by oligarchic lawlessness, Russia's participation in the support of the world reserve currency, the strangulation of small and medium-sized businesses in favor of large corporations, the growing gap in incomes between the poor and the rich. And, what is the most lousy that this fortress can be surrendered at any time. If its leadership will be offered the honorable conditions of surrender. This is evidenced by the fact that Chubais is alive and well, and the Russian people are increasingly being fitted to capitalist standards by duping people through the mass media and the defeat of education.
Here I turn from the confident ground of knowledge and the conclusions based on them to the shaky ground of assumptions.
Who is in this system of GDP? Most likely, the hired manager of the Russian oligarchy. He was called to step in at the helm of the country in order to protect the riches of the home-grown elite. And he, “like a slave on galleys,” diligently and successfully works on the task set. Naturally, he is stopping such dangerous issues for the defended fortress as juvenalk, LGBT, de-Stalinization, since they can cause an internal explosion even in such disunited and frightened people as we have. But no less, if not more dangerous questions of national politics and migrants, corruption, one thing “Oboronservis” is worth, for some reason, in the attention orbit of GDP does not fall. And how else, because in these areas huge money is spinning. Well, oligarchs and senior officials who have grown together with them cannot step on the throat of their song, which brings them multibillion-dollar profits. If you can’t rob a budget on a production sharing agreement, then God himself told you to cut it through shadow schemes like “Obronservis” and “Skolkovo”.
What conclusions can be drawn from the above? Paraphrasing the first president of the Russian Federation, one can say that Russia will live long but not well. In the Russian Federation there was a type of power structure that was characteristic of the reign of the last Romanov. As shown by the First Russian Revolution (1905 of the Year), which was primarily Russian, and not sponsored from the West, this structure, which has a powerful repressive apparatus, is sufficiently resistant to internal shocks. An external shock in relation to a power, which in a matter of hours can terminate the existence of mankind, is hardly possible with sufficient force. At the same time, the problems of Cyprus and the BAB, which was cut to the last, showed our oligarchs that without sufficient force behind their backs, their wealth and property are not worth a penny. Therefore, there is little chance that they will go to surrender Russia in exchange for joining the Club of the Chosen. T. o. The Russian Federation can "rot" for quite a long time, renewed from time to time with private reforms. And the oligarchic regime in Moscow can rule for quite a long time. Preservation of stability in the territory of the Russian Federation will depend on how well the authorities will successfully cope with the policy of controlled chaos on the outskirts of the country. But, at least, the regions of central Russia, the North, Siberia, and the Far East are not seriously threatened by serious upheavals (but most likely). All areas where the Strategic Missile Forces are based will certainly be maintained under the control of the authorities. The dominance of the “national minorities” is not going anywhere due to the fact that they are necessary instead of the organized crime of 90's for the separation and intimidation of the people. Social issues in the work of the leadership of the Russian Federation will continue to remain at a high enough level of priority. True, their optimization, on the example of pension reform, is inevitable, but it will affect not all of them and will be carried out very gradually along with preventive measures against popular protest (such as “reform” of education, continuing to fool people through the media, strengthening and distancing from the people of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the bureaucracy). In the field of ideology, unfortunately, we are not expecting anything new and interesting, we will be very lucky if we do not remove the rule about the separation of church and state. It is also hard to disappoint those hoping for a return to socialism (first of all - themselves). Small business will remain in the area of small retail and in the region affiliated with big business and government agencies for organizing schemes to divert money from the public sector.
The chances of replacing the oligarchic power structure are very small. And they are connected with a suicidal world elite war against the Russian Federation. In this hypothetical situation, the chances for us are even more scanty.