One of the main prerequisites for the future conflict lies in the growth of China. The rapid growth of China’s military and economic power, with its enormous demographic potential, causes well-founded fears among neighboring countries. In addition, the growth of Chinese welfare is directly related to economic expansion, the development of new markets and the receipt of external resources. Cessation of economic growth will lead to a huge social explosion that will destroy modern China. Accordingly, the further economic growth of China is a problem of Japan and the USA, which are losing their positions. And the internal socio-economic problems of the United States and Japan - this is another reason for the war.
Japan is the second largest hotbed of war. Internal problems force her to look for a way out of nationalist rhetoric and to return to the “samurai way”. The United States, gradually phasing out its military programs in Asia, is not going to completely withdraw from the Pacific Ocean zone, since they themselves are a Pacific power. Although they are trying to shift the main burden of the struggle against China to the allies - Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines. Involve the anti-Chinese union of Vietnam and India. They have the support of Australia and New Zealand, who do not want to face the hegemony of China in the APR in the future.
Thus, in the Asia-Pacific region there are several hotbeds of war, the fundamental contradictions between the powers, which will inevitably lead the region to a serious conflict that could develop into a global one with significant or partial attraction of the forces of the main planetary players.
On the one hand, the USA is paying more and more attention to the APR, is strengthening its armed forces in the Pacific Ocean, and is forming an anti-Chinese coalition. On the other hand, the Americans leave the Pacific region with their worries and provoke him to an explosion. This is a long-term strategy of Washington: from the borders of Russia, Europe, China, India to Central Africa everything should be ablaze (Middle Eastern front). The second "front" is created in the Asia-Pacific region. It will not be a “classic” world war with millions of armies and permanent fronts, a new global conflict - it will be a chain of conflicts of local and regional importance, internal insurrections and uprisings involving external players. The old world is already crumbling. The United States at this time will try to make a breakthrough in the future, move to a new technological order. This is the script of the "patriots".
In addition, in the US elite there is a powerful group of "cosmopolitans". They have another scenario - the decline of the "signage of capitalism", a sharp decrease in the standard of living of the overwhelming majority of Americans. The loss of superpower status and the transfer of the United States to a group of regional powers. In the catastrophic process - civil war, the collapse of the United States. However, in this scenario, the APR is unlikely to avoid war. If the US loses the role of a leading power, the redistribution of the American sphere of influence will begin. The Pacific region will change radically.
The scenario of “patriots” prevails so far, although lately the information attack on the USA has sharply increased. The United States is "jammed" in all directions: from films where North Korean special forces storming the White House (pumping the destruction matrix of the USA) to the last hysteria with "wiretapping" and revelations of Snowden. Although it is obvious to all normal people that all the intelligence services of the world have always collected information about the powerful, as well as the citizens of interest to them, followed other states. This is a common thing.
The Americans deliberately intensify regional contradictions in the APR. North Korea is constantly provoked by military exercises. Japan is supported in militarization. All countries in the region are engaged in an arms race, the United States helps them in this and earns a lot of money. In the Pacific, the United States is trying to leave the front line and transfer the role of China’s main opponents to other states. And Japan plays a key role here. In terms of its economic and military potential, which, if necessary, can be dramatically increased, the hidden fighting spirit, Japan is an ideal candidate to challenge China. At the same time, the United States is encouraging the militarization of South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines and India.
Japan: Revision of the results of the Second World War, military buildup and challenge to China
Long-term economic stagnation in Japan - the entire period of the 1990s and 2000s - is called lost decades or lost years. In recent years, radical changes have also not occurred. This raised the question of the future of Japan before the Japanese government. The Japanese monarchy is in a conceptual impasse. Following the United States allowed Japan to become one of the leading economic powers on the planet, but this course is clearly close to exhaustion. Japan needs to find itself in a future world where the United States will lose the role of a superpower, and China will claim to be a leader in the Asia-Pacific region, with all the consequences for the Japanese. And the fact that in the Middle Kingdom the Japanese obviously do not like is obvious even in Chinese films with historical bias: the main enemies in them are the "white barbarians" and the "Japanese occupiers." Obviously, Tokyo is not happy with the prospect of staying alone with Beijing. In recent years, Japan’s new course has been clearly traced: the rise of nationalism; revision of the results of the Second World War; the growth of military capabilities, primarily offensive, under the pretext of a threat from the DPRK and the PRC; aggravation of the conflict with China over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) islands in the East China Sea; building an anti-Chinese coalition involving India; taking advantage of the still available US capabilities for the growth of defense power.
October 27 2013, the Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, visited the base of self-defense forces (as the sun calls in Japan) Camp Asaka in Tokyo suburb, where the head of government watched the annual military parade and made a statement. The head of the Japanese government said that self-defense forces should be ready to play a more active role in protecting the country, and the government is exploring the possibility of amending the constitution to increase its defensive capabilities. “The security situation around Japan is becoming more serious. Self-defense forces must abandon the idea that the exercise alone is sufficient and that the existence of self-defense forces alone is a deterrent, ”said Shinzo Abe. The prime minister also said that Tokyo would never allow changing the status quo around the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu), which China claims. On Saturday, China warned Japan that Tokyo should not underestimate Beijing’s determination to protect itself. “If Japan does what it said and will, for example, shoot down planes, it will become a serious provocation, an act of war. In this case we will seriously answer. ”
This is not the first reason for the aggravation of relations between China and Japan. Over the past year, the Chinese guard ships are almost always in the waters of the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu), which in the Middle Kingdom are considered to be originally Chinese territory. The conflict escalated in 2012, when the Japanese government decided to buy three of the five islands from a private owner. The Chinese government demanded that the decision be immediately annulled, a wave of anti-Japanese protests and pogroms swept across China. Japanese companies were forced to reduce their presence in China. And Chinese planes and ships began to regularly “troll” the Japanese. So, on October 27, Japanese fighters 2013 raised the alarm because of the flight of four Chinese aircraft between the islands of Okinawa and Miyakojima. October 28 Chinese patrol ships entered the waters of the disputed islands, the Japanese ships demanded that the Chinese leave the area. The Japanese Foreign Ministry expressed another protest. It should be noted that Beijing not only demands the return of the Senkaku Islands, but also teaches the population to believe that Okinawa Island was under the control of China. The official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, Renmin Ribao, has already published an article stating that China claims the Ryukyu archipelago (it includes Okinawa Island). “The time has come to consider the unresolved problems associated with the Ryukyu,” the article says, which also cites statements from the end of the Second World War, where Japan is ordered to return the Chinese territories. The Japanese government responded to this article with an official diplomatic protest.
The Japanese government plans to respond to this threat by changing the 9th article of the constitution, which says about Japan's renunciation of war as a way to solve international problems. This article of the Constitution prohibits the Self-Defense Forces from operating outside of Japanese land. Formally, in spite of a rather serious power, Self-Defense Forces are a special type of police force. Although in 2007, the Japanese National Defense Administration (UNO) was already officially transformed into a ministry. Japan, with the patronage of the United States and NATO, already violated article 9 when its units played a supporting role in the Iraqi and Afghan campaigns. The restriction did not prevent Japan from building modern and powerful armed forces, possessing fleet, the core of which are two helicopter carriers, almost five dozen destroyers and frigates, 18 submarines. Japan ranks fifth to sixth in the world in terms of defense spending, annually allocating up to 44 billion dollars for military needs.
However, it is time to get rid of formality. As long as the 9 article of the constitution is in force, Japanese troops cannot legally be used outside of Japan, their offensive potential cannot be developed, intercontinental missiles and strategic bombers can be produced. After the Liberal Democratic Party came to power in December 2012, a draft large-scale reform of the armed forces was approved. Military reform provides for the further development of a national missile defense system, the creation of a marine corps and the empowerment of the army to attack the enemy bases. A symbolic gesture should be the renaming of Japan’s self-defense forces into an army of national defense. Thus, Japan must review the outcome of the Second World War.
Currently, the constitutional revision employs a legislative bureau - a special legal body established under the Japanese government. It is headed by Ichiro Komatsu, a former ambassador to France and a supporter of the revision of the constitution. Given the fact that the United States, which has its troops in Japan and was the guarantor of the outcome of the Second World War, does not express any concern about Japanese actions, it is clear that this step has long been agreed between Washington and Tokyo. Peaceful Japan is no longer needed by the United States. Need a "samurai" that will stop China.
The United States itself is withdrawing troops from a future forward. In early October, talks were held in Japan by US Secretary of State John Kerry and Pentagon chief Chuck Hagle with Japanese colleagues. The Americans are taking 9 ths. Marines from their base in Okinawa, but they do not take them out of the ATP at all - some marines will be transferred to Guam, the other - to the Northern Mariana Islands (second line of defense against China). At the same time, the Americans are increasing the offensive potential of the Japanese Armed Forces.
X-NUMX of American MV-12 Osprey amphibious transport convertible planes have already been deployed in Okinawa, which are intended for the rapid transfer of amphibious forces. Japan plans to buy convertible planes for its Armed Forces - in order to increase the amphibious capabilities of the Japanese troops. Beijing has already expressed concern about this move by Tokyo, announcing preparations for an attack on Chinese territories. In the near future, the US will double the number of convertoplanes in Japan. Considering the gradual withdrawal of American forces from Japan, the entire military infrastructure of the US Marine Corps bases and convertible gliders will apparently get to the Japanese military. We must not forget that the strengthening of the amphibious capabilities of Japan was directed not only against China, but also against Russia: Tokyo did not refuse its claims to the Southern Kuriles.
The Americans are increasing the capabilities of the Japanese in the field of intelligence: the strategic unmanned reconnaissance aircraft RQ-4 Global Hawk will be transferred to Japan, and in the future the naval modification of this UAV - MQ-4C Triton. Boeing P-8A Poseidon anti-submarine patrol aircraft will also be based on Japanese territory, which can be used not only for reconnaissance, but also for attacking sea and underwater targets (free-fall and corrected bombs, torpedoes, depth bombs and anti-ship missiles). In addition, the United States and Japan are working together on one of the most advanced methods of warfare - “cyber-weapons”. In Japan, created a joint US-Japanese cyber squad. This increases Japan’s cyber attack capabilities on government information infrastructure, information and financial structures of potential adversaries.
The Japanese themselves are planning to upgrade four E-767 long-range radar detection and control aircraft. These aircraft are part of the Japanese missile defense system, which is part of the global US missile defense system, directed against Russia and China. Japan joined the work on creating a joint missile defense system with the Americans back in 1998. Officially, this missile defense system was created to counter the threat from the DPRK. In 2007, Japan, the United States and Australia entered into a military alliance, which should lead to the creation of a joint missile defense system in the Pacific basin. Currently, South Korea is also attracted to this alliance. In Japan, the forward-deployed radar FBX-T on the island of Honshu has already been deployed. It was decided to deploy the second radar. The Japanese themselves have a fairly good ballistic target detection system: 12 early warning stations. Japan has a family of J / FPS-3 stations, which work as a means of controlling aerospace, and five more advanced J / FPS-5, they are capable of detecting ballistic missile launches at long range and accompanying them with the delivery of target indications. Almost all of them are directed against Russia. Means of destruction of the Japanese missile defense system consist of the ground part - the "Patriots" and the sea - destroyers of the type "Congo" (they are analogous to the American destroyers of the type "Arly Burke").
Japan pays great attention to building up combat capabilities in other areas. So, in 2014, they plan to test the first flight model of the fifth-generation advanced fighter ATD-X Shinshin. The assembly of the first flight pattern began in the 2012 year. The development of the aircraft involved the Japanese companies Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fuji Heavy Industries and Kawasaki Heavy Industries. Engines are developed by Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries. In 2012, Japan entered into a contract with Lockheed Martin, a US company, to supply the first four F-35A Lightning II fighter jets. In total, the Japanese government plans to buy 42 new aircraft from the USA.
In August, the largest military ship built in the post-war years in Japanese shipyards was launched on the 2013 year - a squadron-carrying ship of the Izumo type with a full displacement of 27 thousand tons and a length of almost 250 meters. In fact, this is a modern large helicopter carrier (air group - 14 helicopters), capable of performing the role of a light aircraft carrier. IHI Marine United has a contract to build a second ship of the same type. This is the third helicopter carrier in the Japanese Navy. In 2009 and 2011 The Japanese military received two Hyuga helicopter carriers with a full displacement of 18 thousand tons and a length of about 200 meters. Helicopter carriers can carry an air group up to 11 helicopters. These ships can also be used as light aircraft carriers. They can be based aircraft with vertical and short takeoff and landing. In addition, with additional equipment - a nose ramp, it will be possible to increase the combat load of the aircraft. With the introduction of new helicopter carriers into the fleet, Japan received opportunities for conducting full-fledged amphibious operations.
Japan has the ability to create their own ballistic missiles. The Japanese Defense Ministry is already considering this issue. The deployment of missiles is planned on the southernmost Japanese island of Okinawa, according to Japanese experts, this will allow repelling a possible Chinese invasion of the Senkaku Islands. Ballistic missiles would take about 500 minutes to cover the distance of 5 kilometers, which would prevent attempts to land an enemy landing on the approaches to the islands. It is hardly possible to exclude the fact that under certain military-political conditions the Japanese state can become the owner of the nuclear weapons. All you need is a political decision. According to experts, given the high scientific and technical level of Japan, there is no doubt that nuclear weapons can be created there in a short time, measured in months. In January, 1994, the executive director of the Japan Atomic Forum, Kdzuhisa Mori, said that Japan has the scientific and industrial potential that is needed to build nuclear weapons. Japan is ready to carry out a full technological cycle: the development of the raw material base - scientific and experimental work - the accumulation of weapons-grade fissile material - the creation of an explosive device - the conduct of its tests - the creation of delivery vehicles - the creation of nuclear weapons. In February, leading Japanese independent military experts H. Maed and H. Fudzia, 1994, confirmed the findings of the British Ministry of Defense on the possibility of Japan developing nuclear weapons in a short time. Taking into account developments in the space field, Japan will not have any strong problems in the field of delivery vehicles.
One can only speculate on the consequences of Japan’s return to the status of a military power. After all, if the Japanese government does not plan hostilities outside of Japan, then there is no point in changing the old constitution. Apparently, Tokyo knows that the war will be and is consciously preparing for it. Japan has territorial disputes with Russia, Korea and China, and a desire to reconsider the results of the Second World War. A symbol of the fact that the Japanese elite does not agree with their results is a visit by Japanese officials (privately) to the Yasukuni Shinto temple. This temple is dedicated to the souls of the dead warriors who died for Japan and the emperor (among them there are war criminals). Despite protests from the neighbors, this year the head of the government, Shinzo Abe, made a ritual offering to the temple, the sanctuary was also visited by Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso and two other cabinet ministers. The indirect sign of the samurai spirit of Japan, which is still alive, serves the words of the Minister of Finance Taro Aso in July of this year, saying that Japan should "take an example from the Nazi party that changed the constitution before anyone realized what was going on." Of course, the minister later apologized for his words. But, the conclusion from them is unequivocal - part of the Japanese political elite is ready for war.
The current global systemic crisis in Tokyo is seen as an opportunity to take revenge for defeat. How far will Japan go this way? One can only speculate on this score. Perhaps in the long run, we will see Pearl Harbor-2 ...
P.S. Interesting images gives us a western cinema. In the film "The Pacific Frontier," the planet is being invaded by giant monsters - kaiju, which appear in the Pacific Ocean. Kaiju is a Japanese word meaning "strange beast" ("monster"). The slogan of the film: "To fight monsters, we created monsters." Anglo-Saxons, the United States created the Japanese monster to fight with Russia and China in the late XIX - early XX centuries. and it was successfully used in the Russo-Japanese War 1904-1905, in the First and Second World Wars for the dismemberment and occupation of China. Another image: the fighting machines of the Chinese and Russians (the Kaidanov couple) are killed in the battle with Kaiju, and the Americans remain in reserve and eventually win. Such films are a kind of programming, matrix-egregorial control. Another interesting deep-seated image - kaiju - is artificially derived clones, which are created by a race of beings who seek to colonize our planet. And people for them - just parasites. Direct reference to the "owners" of Western civilization, who dream of reducing the size of the earth to a "diamond" million owners and several million "talking tools", to correct the ecology of the planet in order to live comfortably.
To be continued ...