A huge such power modest (secret) such a budget
Recently, State Duma deputies expressed their attitude to the draft federal budget in the first reading. As expected, the draft budget for reading at number one was adopted by a majority vote. Representatives of United Russia and five deputies from other factions voted in favor of the whole 243 man, the against button was pressed by the 142 man, and three more could not decide on what position they should stop, and therefore abstained during the vote . As a result, 388 deputies from 450, listed on the list, voted, although at that time in the meeting room there was at best half of the number that eventually showed up on the scoreboard.
After the vote, it turned out that the new draft of the three-year budget is indeed the most difficult from the point of view of economic development over the past few years. They guessed about this before (the government was preparing us, as it were), but after the debates in parliament it became clear that many would really have to tighten their belts.
If a few years ago, the economic bloc of the Russian government declared that the budget is directed to the development of an innovative economy, to a substantial increase in GDP, then this time there are no Napoleonic plans (in the spirit of 6-7% of economic growth and large-scale financing of social programs) voiced. And, in fact, there was nothing to voice, because the draft budget this time looks very realistic, especially if you pay attention to the current state of the Russian economic system (economic growth in 2 is lower than predicted by the government at the beginning of the year: 1,8% against 3,6%) .
So, let's try to deal with the main areas that are spelled out in the draft three-year budget.
The first thing that catches your eye: the budget for all three subsequent years will be scarce. The total three-year excess of expenditure over income in Russia will be (as indicated in the draft budget prepared by the cabinet) over 1 trillion. 672 billion rubles is in absolute numbers. In relative figures, this is less than one percent in three years, which officials from the financial bloc put almost in the merit of themselves. Like, it could be worse ...
But whatever the deficit in its absolute and relative expressions may be, it needs something to close. As they say, although the tear is small, but if it is not patched in time, it can only increase in size over time. The patching is particularly relevant also due to the fact that along with the budget deficit, the national debt will also arrive, which will grow to 2016% by the end of 14,3 against 11,9% today. What is going to patch? One of the ways voiced in the draft budget is the continuation of the privatization rate. That is, the sale of state property will continue, which, on the one hand, fully coincides with the spirit of the market economy, but on the other hand, it cannot remain without questions, especially considering the options under which many of the past privatization, so to say, sessions were held.
For three years, the government is going to send in private hands of state property in the total amount of 455,2 billion rubles.
The second way is different types of borrowing, which will reduce the size of the budget deficit, but at the same time increase the amount of public debt (both external and internal). And what can threaten the increasing public debt for an economic system with less than 2% annual growth, is known to many by the example of a number of states that find themselves in the real credit dependence. Why are there foreign countries ... Russia itself was in such a situation when, in exchange for guarantees of obtaining loans, for example, from the IMF, its leadership was ready to go to almost any measures. Of course, it’s too far from requesting “vital” loans from the IMF, but on the other hand, if the process is started, then you can neither bring the Lord and return to credit bondage.
However, the biggest wave of budget discussion is not even its deficiency (and this is at very high oil prices: about 105-110 dollars per barrel compared to $ 93-95, included in the draft budget), but the fact that the budget is aimed at reducing social obligations of the state . Especially resonant here is the fact that the reduction in funding for programs is related to health care and education. So, next year, the financing of the education sector in Russia will decrease by almost 13% from the level of this year, and the financing of the health care system - by 8,6%. Even more strange is the expenditure item on housing and communal services. According to this article, the government plans to cut funding for the housing sector by more than 23%. Of course, we have heard that the management of housing and communal services by the hands of private companies should be efficient and literate, which means that citizens with this kind of management will get more benefits, but somehow in recent years, progress has been identified only in isolated cases. And, frankly, it is not entirely clear that the reduction of housing and public utilities financing is also due to the state of the residential complex in the country. If the volumes of budget housing construction and infrastructure creation were impressive for at least 10-15 years in a row, and if dilapidated housing was replaced with a new one with all the consequences, then it would be possible to justify a reduction in the level of financing of the housing and utility company. But to reduce it now, when in the Far East alone the situation in the housing and utilities sector after the flood is deplorable, somehow strange.
If we go back to reducing the financing of health care, then Tatyana Golikova (Chair of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation) spoke out on the first reading on this issue after the deputies adopted the draft budget. Ms. Golikova said that due to budget plans to reduce funding for the medical industry, the quality of the medical services provided could deteriorate.
How?! Will it get worse? !! That is, the free filling will pop out of the “cured” tooth not in two months, but in a couple of weeks, or will the suture after appendicitis not be sewn in order to save threads? ..
It turns out that the fears of Mrs. Golikova were groundless. This was stated by the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov personally. He unexpectedly for many (especially after the publication of data on the reduction in the amount of financing for medicine) suddenly said that everyone and everyone did not understand so ... It turns out that the state will only reduce costs in a particular direction, but the total flow of funding for medicine will only grow. Now revenues will “flow in the river” thanks to the regulation of the action of the MLA. Insurance, they say, will do everything right. That is, before that, money did not flow like a river, and from 2014, the year of finance in medicine will have nowhere to go, and these finances will go precisely from the CHI fund ...
Ugh-ff ... Siluanov reassured ... With seals and appendicitis, it means everything will be all right ...
By the way, after such statements by the Minister on the website of the Ministry of Finance published data that spending on health and education in the 2014 year still grow (but only in absolute numbers). So what is it? Adjustment of the draft budget in the course of its adoption or an attempt to present a real cost reduction (as a percentage) in the best light?
In addition, a general budget reduction of 5% is discussed for all items. Many managed to call this reduction sequestration budget. Well, the reduction is the same.
Many ... But these many, according to representatives of the government, are not specialists, and therefore the term was used incorrectly ... The same Ministry of Finance assures that this is not at all a sequestration, but, quote: budget maneuver. That is, you understand, a maneuver, since the savings will go to the implementation of other programs. As if, with the world on a thread: to cut down on 5%, so that later, perhaps, the same program "additional" to finance ...
Only one of the programs that, as it turns out, will not be touched is the modernization of the army. Costs are defined at the level at which they were negotiated and prior to the consideration of the draft budget. Well, at least somewhere the sequence appears. True, at the same time, in 2014, there are no plans to raise the salaries of servicemen, but this is, as they say, another story. And so that the servicemen are not particularly indignant, the draft says - oh, horror! - that the salaries of the officials will remain at the level of 2013 of the year ...
An important component of the new budget is the regulation of tariff growth. For the population, the growth of tariffs should not be higher than the amount equal to inflation with a reduction factor: the government prohibits raising energy prices and transportation above the inflation share in the 0,7 point. This formula for citizens is called "inflation minus". Inflation itself is expected to be at the level of 4,5-5% annually. Only here, taking into account this formula and the indicated level of inflation, the forecasts of representatives of oil companies on the rise in prices for diesel fuel and gasoline at least 10% in 2014 a year are combined - a question. It turns out that either gasoline is not an energy carrier, or in the formula presented in the draft budget there are some imaginary numbers ...
PS And our Russian budget has become one of the most closed in the world. The government has coded as much as 24,8% of all expenses (with 14,2% today and 11,7% in 2012).
By the way, the secret component concerns even such industries as education and housing and communal services. Well, well, there is more secrecy in science, but a significant share of secrecy in the housing and utilities sector ... Not otherwise, a network of bunkers on the moon ...
After the vote, it turned out that the new draft of the three-year budget is indeed the most difficult from the point of view of economic development over the past few years. They guessed about this before (the government was preparing us, as it were), but after the debates in parliament it became clear that many would really have to tighten their belts.
If a few years ago, the economic bloc of the Russian government declared that the budget is directed to the development of an innovative economy, to a substantial increase in GDP, then this time there are no Napoleonic plans (in the spirit of 6-7% of economic growth and large-scale financing of social programs) voiced. And, in fact, there was nothing to voice, because the draft budget this time looks very realistic, especially if you pay attention to the current state of the Russian economic system (economic growth in 2 is lower than predicted by the government at the beginning of the year: 1,8% against 3,6%) .
So, let's try to deal with the main areas that are spelled out in the draft three-year budget.
The first thing that catches your eye: the budget for all three subsequent years will be scarce. The total three-year excess of expenditure over income in Russia will be (as indicated in the draft budget prepared by the cabinet) over 1 trillion. 672 billion rubles is in absolute numbers. In relative figures, this is less than one percent in three years, which officials from the financial bloc put almost in the merit of themselves. Like, it could be worse ...
But whatever the deficit in its absolute and relative expressions may be, it needs something to close. As they say, although the tear is small, but if it is not patched in time, it can only increase in size over time. The patching is particularly relevant also due to the fact that along with the budget deficit, the national debt will also arrive, which will grow to 2016% by the end of 14,3 against 11,9% today. What is going to patch? One of the ways voiced in the draft budget is the continuation of the privatization rate. That is, the sale of state property will continue, which, on the one hand, fully coincides with the spirit of the market economy, but on the other hand, it cannot remain without questions, especially considering the options under which many of the past privatization, so to say, sessions were held.
For three years, the government is going to send in private hands of state property in the total amount of 455,2 billion rubles.
The second way is different types of borrowing, which will reduce the size of the budget deficit, but at the same time increase the amount of public debt (both external and internal). And what can threaten the increasing public debt for an economic system with less than 2% annual growth, is known to many by the example of a number of states that find themselves in the real credit dependence. Why are there foreign countries ... Russia itself was in such a situation when, in exchange for guarantees of obtaining loans, for example, from the IMF, its leadership was ready to go to almost any measures. Of course, it’s too far from requesting “vital” loans from the IMF, but on the other hand, if the process is started, then you can neither bring the Lord and return to credit bondage.
However, the biggest wave of budget discussion is not even its deficiency (and this is at very high oil prices: about 105-110 dollars per barrel compared to $ 93-95, included in the draft budget), but the fact that the budget is aimed at reducing social obligations of the state . Especially resonant here is the fact that the reduction in funding for programs is related to health care and education. So, next year, the financing of the education sector in Russia will decrease by almost 13% from the level of this year, and the financing of the health care system - by 8,6%. Even more strange is the expenditure item on housing and communal services. According to this article, the government plans to cut funding for the housing sector by more than 23%. Of course, we have heard that the management of housing and communal services by the hands of private companies should be efficient and literate, which means that citizens with this kind of management will get more benefits, but somehow in recent years, progress has been identified only in isolated cases. And, frankly, it is not entirely clear that the reduction of housing and public utilities financing is also due to the state of the residential complex in the country. If the volumes of budget housing construction and infrastructure creation were impressive for at least 10-15 years in a row, and if dilapidated housing was replaced with a new one with all the consequences, then it would be possible to justify a reduction in the level of financing of the housing and utility company. But to reduce it now, when in the Far East alone the situation in the housing and utilities sector after the flood is deplorable, somehow strange.
If we go back to reducing the financing of health care, then Tatyana Golikova (Chair of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation) spoke out on the first reading on this issue after the deputies adopted the draft budget. Ms. Golikova said that due to budget plans to reduce funding for the medical industry, the quality of the medical services provided could deteriorate.
How?! Will it get worse? !! That is, the free filling will pop out of the “cured” tooth not in two months, but in a couple of weeks, or will the suture after appendicitis not be sewn in order to save threads? ..
It turns out that the fears of Mrs. Golikova were groundless. This was stated by the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov personally. He unexpectedly for many (especially after the publication of data on the reduction in the amount of financing for medicine) suddenly said that everyone and everyone did not understand so ... It turns out that the state will only reduce costs in a particular direction, but the total flow of funding for medicine will only grow. Now revenues will “flow in the river” thanks to the regulation of the action of the MLA. Insurance, they say, will do everything right. That is, before that, money did not flow like a river, and from 2014, the year of finance in medicine will have nowhere to go, and these finances will go precisely from the CHI fund ...
Ugh-ff ... Siluanov reassured ... With seals and appendicitis, it means everything will be all right ...
By the way, after such statements by the Minister on the website of the Ministry of Finance published data that spending on health and education in the 2014 year still grow (but only in absolute numbers). So what is it? Adjustment of the draft budget in the course of its adoption or an attempt to present a real cost reduction (as a percentage) in the best light?
In addition, a general budget reduction of 5% is discussed for all items. Many managed to call this reduction sequestration budget. Well, the reduction is the same.
Many ... But these many, according to representatives of the government, are not specialists, and therefore the term was used incorrectly ... The same Ministry of Finance assures that this is not at all a sequestration, but, quote: budget maneuver. That is, you understand, a maneuver, since the savings will go to the implementation of other programs. As if, with the world on a thread: to cut down on 5%, so that later, perhaps, the same program "additional" to finance ...
Only one of the programs that, as it turns out, will not be touched is the modernization of the army. Costs are defined at the level at which they were negotiated and prior to the consideration of the draft budget. Well, at least somewhere the sequence appears. True, at the same time, in 2014, there are no plans to raise the salaries of servicemen, but this is, as they say, another story. And so that the servicemen are not particularly indignant, the draft says - oh, horror! - that the salaries of the officials will remain at the level of 2013 of the year ...
An important component of the new budget is the regulation of tariff growth. For the population, the growth of tariffs should not be higher than the amount equal to inflation with a reduction factor: the government prohibits raising energy prices and transportation above the inflation share in the 0,7 point. This formula for citizens is called "inflation minus". Inflation itself is expected to be at the level of 4,5-5% annually. Only here, taking into account this formula and the indicated level of inflation, the forecasts of representatives of oil companies on the rise in prices for diesel fuel and gasoline at least 10% in 2014 a year are combined - a question. It turns out that either gasoline is not an energy carrier, or in the formula presented in the draft budget there are some imaginary numbers ...
PS And our Russian budget has become one of the most closed in the world. The government has coded as much as 24,8% of all expenses (with 14,2% today and 11,7% in 2012).
By the way, the secret component concerns even such industries as education and housing and communal services. Well, well, there is more secrecy in science, but a significant share of secrecy in the housing and utilities sector ... Not otherwise, a network of bunkers on the moon ...
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