As far as can be judged by reports from the Syrian fronts, in the camp of the rebels there is an invisible world, but objectively real reconfiguration of the forces.
If, not so long ago, the main part of the warring groups against the legitimate authorities was somehow recognized by the so-called. The “national coalition of the opposition” with its political roof, now is no longer idle speculation, but a fact is several dozens of small but active “fronts” and “armies” operating in the “uncivilized” south of the country, declaring the “need to create their own political Wings ”form their own“ True Revolutionary Council ”, which sees its main task in“ getting the struggle out of foreign control ”.
Some "northern" groups joined them - a little, but quite enough for the "true revolutionaries" to position themselves as "representatives of the whole of Syria", and the published program of the new "military-political body" looks quite concrete and rather threatening. The only "legitimate" government in Syria, the authors of the document see some "Shura ul-Islam" ("Islamic Council"), including representatives of all extremist "armies", including such as "An-Nusra", one of the "Al -Kaidy.
In short, there is a consolidation of radicals who previously did not want to unite, and they are consolidating on the most extreme possible jihadist platform. In this connection, he is forced to “go to the right” (if such a thing is possible at all) and the “decent” body of the “opposition”, nourished by the West, is the so-called The Syrian National Council, whose leaders, contrary to all plans of both the United States and Europe, have already declared that they are “not ready” to participate in the new Geneva Conference, scheduled for the end of November.
In fact, there is a qualitative change in the situation, and not at all in favor of the West, and attempts by some quite respected experts to somehow link this with the “machinations of America” - with all my extremely skeptical attitude towards America - are unlikely to withstand criticism. For the simple reason that events obviously go out of control. That is, of course, not "everyone", but ...
Some time ago, if it’s for sure, 19 of October, the popular, unbroken Lebanese television channel Al-Mayadin, said: Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, Emir of Qatar, "mentioned the possibility of considering the issue of restoring diplomatic relations With Syria. Yeah. Torn apart during the “revolution”, as is known, on the initiative of the Qatari side, which was one of the main directors and sponsors of the tragic performance.
Naturally, they referred to “credible sources”, no confirmation was received from Doha, however, no refutations were received, but the Saudi press responded to news extremely nervously: several publications that are considered close to the monarch's court (as well as the resources of a radical Islamist direction) instantly expressed that if (if “special” emphasis was placed) this is true, then At-Thani’s house should be considered “munaphic and traitors to the Arab case. " What is absolutely clear: in the event of the departure of Qatar, at least in the shadows, not to mention the complete withdrawal from the project, only the Saud will have to pay for the “revolution”, as well as the “willingness to support the revolution” of Ankara. And it is expensive.
Is such a turn of events possible at all?
As Joseph Vissarionovich said, “if not excluded, then it is possible,” and such a turn of Qatar was excluded only at the previous emir, Sheikh Hamade, who bet on the Muslim Brotherhood as an instrument for establishing his control in Syria. Plus, the counterbalance to the Saudi Salafis (Wahhabis), implicitly, but also not particularly hidden, sharpening their teeth into the “insufficiently zealous in faith” At-Thani house, besides still not wanting to obey instructions from Riyadh. However, the military coup in Egypt, which put an end to the "ihvanization of the whole country", broke the whole lovingly built combination.
Practically all serious experts agree that the June events in Doha are the departure from politics (the official cause is diabetes) of Emir Hamad and the coming to power of his son Tamim, who is under the complete control of his mother, the sheikhs of Muza (the ladies, by the way, truly Shakespearean ) should be considered as the “apical coup”. A kind of "castling", in order to bring the country and the dynasty out of the impasse in which her Egyptian military drove. And this is quite similar to the truth, since the fall of Mr. Mursi turned Qatar from an influential player into a sucker who pays someone else's game from his own pocket.
In this scenario, the desire of the young monarch and his mother, a tough person, very traditional, but far from the Saudi template, to find "new, out-of-the-ordinary solutions" looks quite natural. As quite natural, the Saud’s desire by no means allows it to happen. For leaving the stage of Qatar will mean a real increase in Bashar Assad’s chances, and the failure of the Syrian “revolution” will turn Riyadh into the first target for the evil, disappointed and willing to continue the banquet of Islamists, who have been fed up by the Saud for too long, transferring the arrows from themselves to anyone.
But if there is such a tendency and it is getting stronger, it’s impossible to frighten Qatar, which the United States will not be offended, because of the complete impossibility of making it impossible for the people from Riyadh to break free. And they go.
The recent statement by the authorities of the kingdom that "cooperation with Washington may be limited because of the US position on Syria and Iran" (with which America also seeks to build bridges) can, of course, be viewed as blackmail, much less that it is blackmail is there, but the kingdom seems to have no other options. Moreover, Mr. Erdogan, even if he bought and bought up a hundred times, realizing that the main sponsor cannot reclaim the debt, is quite capable — naturally, in Turkey’s best interests — to jump off the ship.
A rat, driven into a corner, is capable of jumping. And that is why one should not be surprised at the run-up to America, or wildly, but the fact is that the information about the involvement of the Saudi secret services and financiers in the woeful events in Volgograd, leaked to the press (of course, very difficult to prove, if provable at all). And besides, in Kirov, where Volgograd did not happen only thanks to the competence of the Russian special services and happy coincidence. The logic here is very simple: America is America, there is a certain scope for the game and the Saudi lobby is very influential, but Russia is very disturbing, preventing it consciously, neither by blackmail, nor by bribing without being driven, and it should be pinned. Especially since there are opportunities.
I really hope that all those who are in this position should be placed both at Smolensk and Lubyanka, and even more so in the Kremlin, they all take this into account and consider. But the unconditional aggravation of the situation on the Syrian front with sharp radicalization of Riyadh-oriented Wahhabis and the fall of the influence of a little more restrained Ikhwanists does not surprise me at all. After all, it is no secret that the lubrication of war is money, and whoever pays, he orders the menu.