The WPC weekly in the article on the state of rearmament of the Belorussian army told that the ambitious State Armaments Program adopted in the second half of the first decade of the 2000 was significantly stalled due to the rampant financial crisis almost three years ago in the republic. to 2015 year. It is significant that after the completion of the strategic Russian-Belarusian exercises Zapad-2013, which took place mainly in the republic in September, Alexander Lukashenko, who was present at their final stage, did not make any statements as usual that the Belarusian army was reliable stronghold in protecting the sovereignty of the country and it has everything necessary for this.
It is obvious that nowadays the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus are re-arming mainly on old, upgraded samples a decade ago. Officials in these conditions are trying to convince the Belarusian society and the military themselves that everything is not only not bad, but even very good. However, even information appearing in the open press indicates the opposite situation.
Funds for the purchase of weapons and military equipment frankly little
“Today we are going step by step in accordance with the program of building the armed forces. By the 2013 – 2015 years, our army will be completely re-equipped and will meet the highest advanced standards, ”President Alexander Lukashenko showed such high optimism, summing up the comprehensive operational exercises five years ago“ Autumn-2008 ”.
But a little more than two years passed, as the country's leader at a memorable meeting, which was shown on local TV channels, was forced to almost separate the leadership of the Ministry of Defense and the government, grappling on the basis of a significant cutback last funds allocated to the HPV-2015. This happened before the financial collapse in the country. After the meeting, it became clear that the military had to back down.
Three months after that, in February 2011 of the year, speaking to the leadership of the army, the Supreme Commander said: “We simply must reach a reasonable balance of expenses between the maintenance of the armed forces and their development. Forces and means need to be concentrated only on the most urgent, breakthrough directions, which give the greatest increase in combat potential or another concrete practical result. ”
But to this day, it seems, this balance has not been properly developed, there is a catastrophic lack of money for individual breakthrough directions. Here are the numbers.
According to expert estimates, in recent years Belarus’s annual military spending was no more than 1,3 – 1,5 per cent of GDP, which in specific terms in 2012 was about 600 million dollars. In his program article, published in 2013 in February on the occasion of the 95 anniversary of the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus, the Defense Minister, Lieutenant-General Yuri Zhadobin, at the same time, stated that “in a situation of radical change in the global situation The military budget of our country in recent years is about one percent. " In the autumn of 2012, it was announced that the Government of the Republic of Belarus had no plans to increase spending on state defense in 2013. Belarusian Prime Minister Mikhail Myasnikovich said that the cost of maintaining security forces in the next year is planned at the level of 8,8 percent of the consolidated budget of the country, growth - in 1,24 times.
The increase in the country's purely defense expenditures in dollar equivalent in this line looks even smaller in 1,15. From the planned budget - 2013, the army share will be four percent or less of 686,4 million dollars (for comparison: in 2012-m - 595,5 million dollars, in 2011-m - 588,2 million). You cannot count on any significant purchases of weapons and military equipment with such funding. Moreover, with the aggravation of the financial component, all these poor means can be absorbed by the military social sphere.
It is also significant that neither before the crisis, nor after in Minsk, either in part or in the statement, did they disclose the provisions of the national LG-2015. The funds that are allocated to it have never been called. The program can only be judged by the statements of individual officials, by their certain optimistic hints. The sums are almost quarterly adjusted downwards.
Therefore, in Minsk, and in relation to the HPV-2015 "silence figure". At least, this impression is created when you try to understand the essence of things in the re-equipment of the armed forces of Belarus. I remember that in November 2007, the then head of the missile forces and artillery, Colonel Mikhail Puzikov, had let slip that Belarus intends to buy Iskander missile systems in Russia, as soon as this statement was officially disavowed in the coming days.
According to the LG-2015, Belarus was able to finance and re-equip (2011 – 2012 in December-January) with the latest Tor-M2 anti-aircraft missile systems only two 120 batteries of the anti-aircraft missile brigade deployed in Baranovichi (Brest region). A total of eight units of this air defense system were received. In August, the Belarusians 2012 perfectly shot from the first "four" new products at the Ashuluk training ground. It was reported that by the end of 2013, the brigade would already have a division called Thor-2M (18 units).
This action by officials in some cases is issued almost as a massive rearmament. At the same time, it is constantly reminded that only in the last decade the C-125 anti-aircraft missile system has been completely changed to C-300. But this replacement occurred in the middle of the first decade of the 2000's and has nothing to do with the LG-2015.
Without money weapons will not be
Against this background, the position of Alexander Lukashenko regarding the rearmament of the national army was again noticeably adjusted. 24 January 2013 of the year he held a meeting with the government, "defense industry" and the military, in which in a tough form demanded from them the creation of new industries and modern weapons systems that are in demand on the domestic and foreign markets. “At the same time, I want to warn everyone: no manilovshchiny, hats and begging of easy money for some ideas! - he said. “Only specific products, price, deliveries abroad and into our army.” Immediately, he also outlined what exactly should be created: troops and weapons control systems, protection systems against precision weapons, radar stations and air defense systems.
“All current samples produced by Belarusian defense enterprises are already in demand, especially in Russia,” the president said. “Today, more than 70 percent of the Belarusian military-industrial complex’s output goes to the foreign market, and equipment of such enterprises as Peleng, MZKT, Tetrahedr is sold almost entirely to foreign customers.” But this is not enough. And Lukashenko made such a remarkable accent: “We managed to overcome the situation when the Soviet equipment that was too much in our armed forces prevailed in the export structure. Now almost 90 percent of the exported weapons and services are Belarusian. Such a positive trend needs to be fixed. ”
Currently, the army and the defense industry of the country are within the framework of the implementation of the National Security Concept, the Concept for the Development of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus to 2020, and the Plan for the Construction and Development of the Armed Forces for 2011 – 2015. The latter envisages bringing the Armed Forces in line with the existing challenges and economic opportunities of the state, transition to modern systems and models of weapons and military equipment, and the development of military infrastructure.
At the same time, the economic opportunities of the state prevail over the legitimate good wishes. It is noticeable that there is a certain belief that the financial situation will suddenly change by a miracle. Of course, last year Moscow gave tangible concessions to a friendly country, but the funds released for rearmament are still not enough.
The country's defense minister, Yuri Zhadobin, in his public speeches significantly specifies the projects implemented by the army that can give a strategic result. However, in practice, the "defense industry" and the military leadership, in addition to the purchase of the "Top-2M", could only transfer promising models of weapons and equipment to the wheelbase of domestic production. Officially, it is reported that at the beginning of 2013, the 1,2 received thousands of vehicles from the Minsk Automobile Plant at the beginning of the year.
It is curious, however, that at the same time, within the framework of military cooperation with China, 2012 light-armored Dongfeng EQ22 Mengshi (“Bogatyr”) high-cross-country vehicle was supplied to 2058 in Belarus for the army special operations forces, which in the same year even participate in a military parade. In the Chinese army, this machine was put into service in the 2007-m, the developers position it in many ways as superior to the famous American SUV "Hummer." But in this purchase, perhaps, there is more politics than practical benefits. The Chinese in fact at one time strongly recommended to Belarusians their training aircraft instead of the Czech L-39. Minsk refused, but apparently, in order not to offend friends, purchased the “Warriors”.
It should be noted that the overwhelming majority of Russian analysts, with their sometimes sharply opposite-minded attitude towards Lukashenko himself, sympathize with the fact that a similar situation has developed in Belarus. Many believe that in this situation Moscow should find an opportunity to respond adequately in the framework of military-technical cooperation with Minsk and agreements on the development of the Western Belarusian-Russian group of troops, which, as we know, includes the entire Belarusian army.
Belarusian politicians and military are primarily interested in ready-made Russian samples. Priority is given to the high-precision operational-tactical missile system (OTRK) "Iskander" and the C-400 "Triumph". Although I already want the "500" (C-500 "Prometheus"), which is still under development. The Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus hopes that as soon as the Russian anti-aircraft missile units are being re-armed, the supplies will go to Belarus approximately in 2013 – 2015 years, which is unlikely, especially with regard to Iskander. In addition, it will again be a serious burden on the national state budget. All these new items are very expensive.
Therefore, in Minsk today they prefer to talk about it evasively and that the supply of Iskander is a matter of time. But this time is supposed to last until 2020 of the year. The army leadership wants to re-equip the 465 th rocket brigade (village Target of the Mogilev region), which is now armed with largely outdated Tochka complexes, at this PTRC.
In Minsk, they also want the fighter of the 4 ++ MiG-35 generation (or the 30 + generation Su-4) to stand guard over the Belarusian sky, and the young pilots would learn to fly on the Yak-130 combat training plane. It is gratifying that in December the 2012 of the Belarusian Ministry of Defense and the Irkut Corporation signed a long-awaited contract for the supply of four Yak-130. According to Irkut, the deal will be completed in 2015 year. It is noted that Belarus in this sense has become the first CIS member state to procure this new winged novelty. The amount of the contract was not mentioned, but we can safely assume that Minsk received a certain advantageous discount both within the framework of bilateral cooperation and legally established preferences throughout the Commonwealth (procurement of armaments at Russian prices), and perhaps as an example of other CIS countries.
But Belarusians need to renew the transport fleet aviation. The IL-76MD VTA of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus will exhaust their life until 2015, and they should be replaced by the IL-76MF with an extended cargo compartment. Earlier it was also about replacing the An-26 with the new An-74 (and the Russian Air Force has now begun replacing the An-26 with the An-140). In addition, eight years ago, the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus wanted to update combat helicopters. Perhaps, on the Yak-130 in two years, the Belarusian military department will still find funds. But in general, for all the necessary weapons and military equipment samples, it seems, there is not and is not even expected.