Modern Libya has virtually ceased to exist as a single state, as analysts had previously predicted. The destruction of the Libyan Jamahiriya led to the archaization of Libya, a return to traditional forms of being. Last news from Libya they are talking about aggravating the process of disintegration, the complete loss by the authorities of control over the situation in the country, turning the Libyan territory into an “inferno zone” where the number of bayonets in your squad decides everything. The government controls only one of the areas of Libya - Tripolitania, and even then not all areas. So, Zintan and Misurata are autonomous.
The European states that supported the war against the regime of Muammar Gaddafi themselves are already experiencing problems associated with the destabilization of Libya and other states of North Africa and the Middle East. So, Italy and other Mediterranean countries are faced with the acute problem of illegal immigration. And the Italian energy company ENI, which is one of the largest foreign operators in Libya, faced the problem of sabotaging the work of oil fields. Oil production in Libya has fallen to minimal levels. In the summer and autumn of 2013, oil production fell by 90%. At the same time, the production and supply of energy was paralyzed. The “field commanders” stated that the national oil company was mired in corruption, and therefore now they will express the interests of the “Libyan people” as a whole and each tribe in particular, and control the export of “black gold”. As a result, militants gained control over oil infrastructure facilities.
Another problem facing EU countries is the strengthening of the structures of the local Islamist underground. Militants, including representatives of indigenous European nations who converted to Islam, take the course of a “young fighter” in countries where “democracy” (Libya, Afghanistan) has won, and return to their homeland. The network structures of the radicals are enhanced by frames, get weapon, campaign materials. Preparation for a holy war "in Europe (and Russia) is in full swing.
October 25, 2013 there was news that the most oil-rich region of Libya - Cyrenaica - announced the establishment of its own government. A cabinet of 24 ministers was represented in the old capital of the once independent state of Cyrenaica - Ajdabiya. It is announced that the government of Cyrenaica will represent the interests of all cities and social groups inhabiting this historical Libya region. Cyrenaica includes the infamous Benghazi, which became the bridgehead of the "forces of good" to crush the Jamahiriya, as well as Jebal Ahdar (Green Mountain), Tobruk and Ajdabiya.
Eastern Libya announced autonomy in early March 2012, when hundreds of local elders who fought against the regime of Muammar Gaddafi, announced the creation of the region Bark. Autonomy includes the territory from Benghazi from Sirte Bay to the border with Egypt. Then the delegates of the Congress of the Peoples of Cyrenaica established the Higher Transitional Council of the region and promised to create independent ministries, including the Ministry of Interior. As is often the case, behind the questions of “independence” lies the question: who will manage the cash flows? Rich in "black gold" Cyrenaica plans to independently manage energy resources. Previously, all financial flows went to Tripoli, where oil revenues were distributed in the interests of the entire state. The redistribution of income from oil production has always caused discontent among a part of the regional elite and the associated intellectual circles. It is clear that the decision on separation caused discontent in Tripoli. However, Tripoli currently has no armed forces that could support the calls for the unity of the country with real actions.
Reference. Cyrenaica. Historic area in North Africa, the northeastern territory of Libya. It is located on the territory from the Gulf of Great Sirte (Sidra) to the borders with Marmarika (sometimes including her), that is, from Tripolitania to Egypt. Much of Cyrenaica fell on the Bark plateau. In antiquity, the Fazanian desert in the Fazania region was considered the border in the south, and the area of Cyrenaica was about 250 000 km². In a later period, large areas to the south of the coast began to be assigned to Cyrenaica, incorporating significant areas of the Libyan desert, which increased its area to 850 000 km². The name of the area is the city of Cyrene (in Dorian Kieran), which was founded by the ancient Greeks. The Greek cities, thanks to maritime and trade, achieved a high degree of prosperity and were able to defend the independence of a long and brutal struggle with Egypt and Carthage. But then the region was consistently part of the Persian Empire, Egypt under the rule of the Ptolemaic dynasty, Rome and Byzantium. The Greek legacy has completely crossed out the Arab conquest. The Arabs called the region Barca. In the XVI century, Cyrenaica became part of the Ottoman Empire. In 1911-1912 Cyrenaica was captured by the Italians. In 1934, Tripolitania, Cyrenaica and Fezzan, the Italian colony of Libya was united. During World War II, British troops occupied Cyrenaica and controlled it until 1951, when the Kingdom of Libya became independent. In 2011, an uprising began in Cyrenaica, which led to the fall of M. Gaddafi’s regime. According to the 2006 year, 1,6 million people lived in the region.
After the death of Muammar Gaddafi, the world community basically lost interest in the events in Libya, leaving the country to sink further. Libya began to overwhelm the waves of chaos. As a result, the situation in Libya has reached such a stage that several recent news forced us to take a closer look at the processes that are occurring in this North African country.
The attack on the Russian embassy. On 2 on October, Russian and global media spread the news of the attack on the Russian Embassy in Tripoli. The attack on the embassy was repelled, one of the attackers died. The UN Security Council condemned the attack and called on the Libyan authorities to fulfill their obligations to protect diplomatic missions. The Libyan government was forced to admit that they cannot guarantee the safety of diplomats. Moscow then decided to evacuate its diplomats from Libya. The diplomats were hastily evacuated to Tunisia, and then by the Ministry of Emergency Situations by plane to Moscow. In the history of modern Russia, this happened only once - in the 1992 year, when the Russian mission in Kabul had to be transported by special aircraft. Partial evacuation of employees of the diplomatic missions of the Russian Federation was carried out in early April 2003 during the US military operation against Iraq; in September 2006 of the year - from Tbilisi, due to the arrest of Russian military personnel; On June 2011, part of the staff of the Russian Embassy in Yemen was taken out due to serious unrest in the Yemeni capital Sana'a.
The evacuation of the Russian embassy in full from Libya is in itself unprecedented. Usually at the time of exacerbation of the situation in any country, family members and technical staff are subject to evacuation. Full evacuation speaks of the threat of the death of the Russian diplomatic mission. After 11 September 2012, Libyan extremists attacked American diplomatic facilities in Benghazi, killing four US citizens, including Ambassador Christopher Stevens, the warning of the Libyan authorities that security was not guaranteed to Russian citizens was taken seriously.
It must be said that competitors of the Russian Federation, who do not want to allow its economic return to Libya, may be behind the attack on the Russian embassy. For modern Libya, financial and military assistance from Russia and China is the only chance to retain power and save the country from the “Somali” scenario. In September, the Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Libya, Mohammed Abdel-Aziz, visited Moscow on 2013. They talked about the resumption of the Russian presence in the oil and gas market of Libya, the construction of the 500 kilometers of railway in the Libyan desert. In addition, they began to restore military-technical cooperation. The implementation of the previously frozen agreements will allow Moscow to become an important partner in the program to restore the Libyan armed forces. The potential for cooperation is great. Libya is currently armed with a significant amount of Soviet weapons, which are in need of modernization. In addition, in 2010, Russia and Libya signed agreements providing for the modernization of old equipment and the supply of Russian combat and combat training aircraft, air defense systems, armored vehicles and naval weapons. At the end of September, it was reported that Russia and Libya resumed military-technical cooperation - the North African country received the first batch of new Russian weapons after the overthrow of M. Gaddafi (10 BMP-3; according to other sources, the Libyan military received the Chrysanthem anti-tank missile systems -C "based on the BMP-3). It is clear that the main political competitors of the current Libyan government, which are now sponsored by Saudi Arabia (they were previously fed by Qatar), are not at all enthusiastic about the possible return of Russia to Libya. And to organize an attack on the Russian embassy is a simple matter, given the fact that the official authorities have little control over the situation in the country. It was a kind of “black mark” of Russia. Like, get out and do not come back, otherwise - death.
Creating your own armed forces. One of the signs that suggest that post-war Libya actually ceased to exist as a single state is the fact that the rebellious provinces form their armies. After independence was declared by Cyrenaica, Fezzan (southwestern Libya) declared the creation of autonomy and a private army. Fezzan already has its own president, Nuri Mohammed al-Quizi. Thus, the Libyan government can only talk about the partial control of only one of the three regions of the country - Tripolitania. The official authorities have neither the strength nor the desire to enter into conflict with the leaders of the tribes and armed bandit groups who have divided Libya into spheres of influence, who may operate under the guise of any state structure and have connections with international terrorist organizations.
The warlords in Fezzan took the same path as in Cyrenaica, deciding that it is not worth sharing the revenues with the central government. Fezzan is rich in oil. But during the reign of Gaddafi, the bulk of the proceeds from the sale of "black gold" went to Tripoli. Naturally, local leaders were unhappy with such an “injustice”. Now the “justice” is restored: the sources of income are in the hands of local leaders, something falls to their “warriors”, and the majority of the population recalls the “golden age” of Gaddafi’s government when he distributed the income of the country among the people with a strong will.
The situation in Fezzan is aggravated by interethnic conflicts. In addition to the Arabs, the communities of Tuareg, Berber and Tubu live in the largest region of Libya. Each community tries to establish its own order. Regular ethnic conflicts are the norm for Fezzan. In addition, the Tuareg and some local tribes supported Gaddafi, provoking hatred of his opponents. Each side is trying to maintain its sources of income or even expand them. The only thing that unites them so far is the conflict with the central leadership.
There are currently four “armies” in Libya: 1) the Ministry of Defense, who are controlled by people from Zintan; 2) The Libyan Shield is an attempt by the General National Council, which formally governs the country, to create a single army from scattered insurgent units. In fact, this structure is headed by immigrants from the city of Misurat; 3) Army Barka - subordinate to the Council of Cyrenaica with its center in Benghazi; 4) "Guard for the protection of oil facilities" with headquarters in Ajdabiya. There is a process of formation of the fifth "army" - the armed forces of Fezzan. In addition to these large centers of power, there are hundreds of smaller armed groups in Libya (from outright organized criminal groups to self-defense detachments of settlements and tribes). Even prisons have their own armed groups. All the main gangs and "field units" have their connections in Tripoli, which are lobbying the interests of groups at the state level.
The authorities in Tripoli are not able to protect even the head of the government. October 10 world received another confirmation of the deplorable situation in which Libya was "democratized" Libya. A detachment of armed men seized the premier Ali Zeidan. A Libyan dignitary was kidnapped from the Corinthia Hotel, where several members of the government live. A few hours later, the prime minister was released. The militant structure “Operational headquarters of Libyan revolutionaries”, which is part of the structure of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, was involved in the arrest of Zeidan. The interim prime minister was detained in connection with suspicions of criminal offenses against the state and state security, of "financial and administrative corruption." In turn, the Office of the Attorney General and the Ministry of Justice said they did not know anything about the charges. This arrest shows the depth of the degradation of the country's bureaucracy and the collapse of power. There is a clan struggle inside Libya, and the abduction of the prime minister is a kind of “muscle play”: one side showed its capabilities to the other.
The rifle gives rise to power. After the overthrow of Gaddafi in Libya, the system of civil law relations degraded to the level when the availability of weapons and the number of weapons available in the association (family, clan, gender, tribe, police or military unit, etc.) decides everything. The population is almost without exception armed, the judicial and police systems are collapsed. Much of the conflict is solved by a weapon or the threat of its use. A similar approach is observed in almost any field. So, in September, the Libyan businessmen from Benghazi, not having received already paid cars from Ukraine, did not turn to judicial-legal structures, but hired gangsters who took the crew of a Ukrainian vessel hostage. Kiev was forced to give in to blackmail.
Inferno. The level of degradation of Libya and the customs prevailing there characterizes the "advice" of the Libyan government to Christians, they were advised to leave the country. The government of Libya reported that it could not guarantee security to Christians, and advised them to leave.
Libya has become a stronghold of radical Islam and has become a black market for weapons of regional importance. According to the UN Commission, over the past 12 months, the proliferation of weapons from Libya proceeded at “frightening rates” and covered new territories: the countries of West Africa, the eastern Mediterranean, and even the Horn of Africa. The illegal traffic of weapons from Libya contributes to fueling existing conflicts in Africa and on the east coast of the Mediterranean, adding to the arsenals of various forces, including overtly terrorist ones. Libyan weapons contribute to the conflict in Mali, added to the arsenals of the Somali Jamaat Al-Shabaab.
Libya has entered not only the source of weapons, but also militants with combat experience and ready to fight on the side of jihadists and local separatists in Mali, Mauritania, Algeria, Nigeria, Sudan and Syria. Thousands of men between the ages of 20 and 40 have become the mobilization reserve of jihadists and separatists. Only in Syria on the side of the gangs are fighting 5-7 thousand Libyan militants. In addition, the Libyan jihadists have established a channel for the supply of weapons to Syria. With the organizational and financial support of Qatar, as well as the support of the Turkish authorities, the field commanders of Benghazi organized the delivery of several large quantities of weapons through Turkey.
What awaits Libya next?
History teaches that the country, the citizens who succumbed to the slogans of "freedom", "justice" and participated in the destruction of their own statehood, usually takes a rather long half-life. At this time, people have to sip grief. "Man with a rifle" now defines the daily life of Libya. Unemployment, a sharp drop in incomes for the majority of the population and the growth of profits of the “neofeodalov”, the mass exodus from the country, a sharp increase in violence, loss of security, territorial, inter-tribal and inter-ethnic conflicts, racism, the growing influence of extremist and terrorist network structures is the present and future of Libya.
This period will continue until the charismatic personality of the level of Gaddafi and Castro appears, who will restore the unity of the country with iron and blood, rein in the neo-feudals, relying on ordinary people. We must not forget the fact that, unlike neighboring Egypt, which resembles a seething cauldron with an abundance of population and a lack of resources, Libya has all the objective possibilities for a stable existence. Libya has a small population (5-6 million) with large natural resources: oil, gas and water. In the southern part of Libya under the sands of the Sahara desert there are huge reserves of fresh water in the aquifers, which make it possible to irrigate thousands of hectares of farmland and develop agriculture.
Another possible future scenario for Libya is city-states. This is a kind of repetition of the ancient period of the history of Libya with the prosperous Greek city-states on the coast and the semi-wild tribes in the depths of the country. So, Misurata is almost completely autonomous. The city has its border with roadblocks, through them only those persons are allowed for whom the inhabitant of Misrata can vouch for. The power in the city belongs to the council, which includes local "patricians" (rich). The old bureaucracy is practically eliminated. Misurata Council brought order to the city, has a detachment in Tripoli. Houses and infrastructure destroyed during the revolution were restored, the country's largest seaport is successfully operating. The port of Mozurata has reached the pre-war level and receives more than 50% of cargo going to Libya. As in the ancient Greek and Italian cities of the Middle Ages, the main ideology is the enrichment of the citizens of the city. Doing business is maximally simplified, taxes are minimal, which led to significant economic growth (against the background of the general economic degradation of the country). The peculiarities of this city-state are: hatred for the heritage of Gaddafi - all people who were supporters of the deceased ruler or suspected of sympathizing with him were killed, thrown into prison or expelled; the surrounding settlements, where they supported Gaddafi, were destroyed, their inhabitants, on pain of death, were forbidden to return there; informal but overt black racism is flourishing. In addition, Misurata is the nest of drug traffickers who create here a base for the export of drugs to southern Europe. Through this transshipment point comes both heroin from Afghanistan and cocaine from Latin America.
True, we can not ignore the external factors. The destabilization of the Middle East continues to gain momentum. Overpopulated Egypt can explode. The energy of its explosion can be directed both inside the country (full-scale civil war), and outside. The Egyptian military elite may try to escape by launching an external expansion. A poorly populated and resource-rich Libya may seem like an ideal option. We must not forget that the factor of water (the problem of the Nile) for Egypt is a matter of life and death. If Egypt is deprived of most of the flow of the Nile, Cairo will have no choice: it will be necessary to seize Libyan stores.