Military Review

Here comes the Taliban ...

21
What threats await Russia after a possible change of power in Kabul?


Here comes the Taliban ...The leader of the Taliban movement, Mohammed Omar, said that he would begin jihad against the Afghan authorities if the administration of President Hamid Karzai signs a security agreement with Washington. And soon after his statement, Arsala Jamal was killed, the governor of Logar province, in the past - the governor of Khost province and head of the campaign campaign of H. Karzai in 2009 year.

Naturally, the Taliban were appointed suspects in the murder, promising to destroy government officials collaborating with the presidential administration.

Meanwhile, the killing of Arsala Jamal, a citizen of Canada, who in the closest way had been associated with all sorts of Western organizations throughout his career, perfectly illustrates the customs prevailing in the country today. And yet - the so-called “Afghan democracy” being built with the help of the West, which makes the coming to power of the “new Taliban” just a matter of time ...

Before explaining that this is the “new Taliban”, a little bit stories. In March, 2001, an emissary of the then Taliban arrived in Washington for talks with the US administration. George W. Bush’s team seriously considered recognizing the Taliban government - provided that it is willing to cooperate with the United States in the development of oil reserves and the construction of an oil pipeline in the region of Central Asia. As a gift to Bush, an Afghan carpet was brought, which was later beaten by an American administration official during negotiations with the emissary: ​​"Either you accept our offer of gold-covered carpet, or we will bury you under the carpet of bombs." Negotiations were held until 2 in August 2001, the Taliban did not accept the conditions proposed by the American side, and signed the verdict. Two months later, Operation Enduring Freedom began, ending the “old Taliban.”

After the American invasion, the Taliban leaders hoped for a repetition of the partisan war, which partially justified itself in the confrontation with the USSR. But the emergence of drones dramatically reduced the effectiveness of this tactic. From 2004 to January 2012, "drones" - as these aircraft call it in the USA - launched 285 rocket attacks on ordinary militants and Taliban leaders.

Of course, many civilians died in the process, and many of the survivors took up weaponto get revenge, but the main goal was achieved. The drones deprived the Taliban leaders of the opportunity to wage the classic partisan war under the “strike-and-descend to shelter on adjacent territory” scheme.

In addition to purely military aspects, American tactics included political elements that the Taliban were unable to resist. In the view of the US leadership, Afghanistan is nothing more than a springboard for further expansion. With this approach, the interests of the “native population” are of no interest to anyone, “the problems of the Sheriff's Indians do not bother.” The main thing is the relative stability around the places of deployment of military personnel of the international, read-American, contingent.

Historically, the role of the central government in maintaining stability in the country is quite symbolic. The Karzai administration today is, for the most part, a decoration designed to demonstrate to the international community the successes of the United States and NATO in the matter of “exporting democracy”, and at the same time to report on the financial means spent on this “process”. In fact, the country’s governance is structured in accordance with a scheme that economist and historian Neil Ferguson, who economically consulted US Senator John McCain in 2008, described exhaustively, described the electoral campaign of US Senator John McCain in the nineteenth century. They simply did not have the strength to establish their authority in the rest of the country. This is a lot like what is happening in Afghanistan at the moment. There is a choice. Either you control the capital, and you hand over the rest of the country to the leaders of the field commanders, or you find yourself involved in an extremely cruel and possibly useless war throughout the territory of Afghanistan. ”

It is the field commanders who today provide control over the situation in each Afghan province, receiving from Kabul - more precisely, from the US, because the Afghan budget for 91 percentage consists of international injections - “loyalty fee”.

Before us is a typical control scheme of the British colony of the XIX century. Tribal leaders receive a "reward for loyalty" from the colonial administration, the right to dispose uncontrollably in the territory entrusted to them the life and death of the native population and, most importantly, to earn those means that are most suitable for them. Heroin production? Please, according to the NATO classification, this is a “traditional craft”, which cannot be touched, because the economy of the provinces will collapse, the incomes of the leaders will fall. But they need a personal militia to maintain ... Racket on the roads? No problem, create a "private security company," and Kabul will sign a contract with you for "cargo escort." This is not an exaggeration, but the everyday life of an Afghan province.

With such a system, the “political sympathies” of the field commanders have no significance for the international coalition and the Kabul administration: they provide control over the territory, and all right.

After 2001, the Taliban faced a dilemma: either sit in the mountains and shake from the buzzing “drones” flying over you, or integrate into the folding system. On the one hand - stagnation and the threat of physical destruction. On the other - the free and well-fed life of local kings, the proceeds from the drug trade, the right to personal militia and a piece of territory from which you can feed yourself and feed the clan standing behind you.

Those who choose the second path are the very “new Taliban”, which in the West is called moderate, and which the same West is not averse to seeing in the “coalition” government. It is perfectly integrated into the existing economic and political system of the country. The scandalous sensation was the data published in 2010 in the USA in the report of the head of the subcommittee on national security and foreign affairs of the House of Representatives John Tierney. The title of the document - “Leaders of local armed groups, incorporated”: Extortion and corruption along the American routes of cargo transportation in Afghanistan “- speaks for itself.

The scheme outlined in the report was simple, but it was flawlessly profitable. Cargo destined for US troops in Afghanistan arrives through Pakistan or Central Asia at two distribution points: one near Kabul, the other near Kandahar. Then they are sent to more than two hundred American bases scattered around the country, and within the framework of a special program worth more than 2 billions of dollars. Afghan transportation companies are involved in the transportation of goods, contracts with which were signed by Watan Risk Management, controlled by the cousins ​​of Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Well, his brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai, distributed security contracts. The task of “family work” and the main function of presidential relatives was to negotiate with “subcontractors”. Translated into a normal language - with field commanders of the Taliban, on the territory of which the convoy must pass, about the safe movement of goods. Moreover, the "Taliban contract" provided a full range of services - provided security, dealt with other militants, gave bribes to local governors, police officers and military. So every week the field commanders of the “new Taliban” received 1,6 – 2 million dollars from the US budget. The profitability of such a “job” has led to the emergence among the Taliban of a whole stratum of new field commanders who earn on the road-guard business.

Naturally, this is not the only source of income for the “new Taliban.” He has a stake in the construction business, in the energy sector, in the opium fields ... However, this information will not surprise anyone. And that's not the point. The main thing is that there is no serious confrontation between the international coalition led by Washington and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Moreover, the US military presence in the country has nothing to do with the war against the Taliban or the entity called al-Qaeda.

“The new Taliban, formed over the years, feels great in the context of symbiosis with international economic assistance. That is, under the conditions of kickbacks and cuts, in which the Karzai administration, international companies, and the Taliban themselves are equally involved. But their advantage over the Kabul government in the eyes of the Afghans is that if Karzai is “Bribed”, permeating all the corruption, the total lawlessness of the commanders' leaders and their militia, then the Taliban are Sharia norms that are densely mixed with the country's traditional values.

In the eyes of the local philistine today, the Taliban are order, absence of bribes and a fair trial. And because the coming of the Taliban to power, a large part of the population, who had eaten enough of the charms of “democracy Karzai”, will support.

In addition, today the “new“ Taliban ”has abandoned the maximalism of the period of its formation, with its perception of any elements of the Western way of life as a creature of shaitan. The current Taliban, having tried the “consumer society”, found pleasant moments in it and refused to literally follow the requirements of Wahhabi preachers from madrasahs in the eighties Pakistani refugee camps, where they started. Actually, this rejection of the fundamentalism of the “old Taliban” makes the current movement contractual in the eyes of the West.

By introducing the Taliban into power, giving them a place in the coalition government, the United States, in full accordance with the colonial principle of "divide and rule," provide themselves with the guarantee of their usefulness to political elites. Consequently - and guarantees further stay in Afghanistan. In the struggle that will unfold between the Taliban and the “Karzai people” for spheres of influence, for the redistribution of income from drug trafficking and international assistance, Washington has every chance to control the country for a long time.

And here the question arises: how will the preservation of the American presence turn for Russia and the post-Soviet states of Central Asia?

Professionals were hardly ever taken seriously by the thesis that the United States and NATO are fighting for Russian interests in Afghanistan.

Although a number of experts continue to consider it to this day, keeping the naive calmness of consciousness. What are the threats to Russia emanating from Afghanistan that Americans are “covering their breasts”?

Protect from Taliban expansion? Tomorrow the Taliban come to power - they still will not have the strength to expand into Central Asia, because all their material and human resources will be used for the intra-Afghan confrontation, to fight with opponents inside the country.

But there are two threats that during the American presence took shape, as they say, “in full growth”.

First of all it is, of course, drugs. A side effect of “Enduring Freedom” was the monopoly of Afghan heroin on the Russian market, a sharp increase in drug exports from Afghanistan to Russia. From here - another threat. Strengthening of transnational criminal gangs in Central Asia, closely related to the drug business and drug trafficking from Afghanistan to Russia. However, the “opium war of 2.0”, connected with the American presence in Afghanistan, is a separate topic, full of unexpected twists and scandalous details.

The second, in order, but not least, threat is “international jihad”. It is clear that the United States will not leave Afghanistan. Bidding, which suits Karzai about the conditions of the American stay - a theatrical act, nothing more. The reduction in the number of military contingents in Afghanistan will be offset by an increase in the staff of private military companies, paid from the Afghan budget, that's all.

Another question is, where will the Islamists from the Central Asian republics and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China go, who for a decade without special problems, are training and “run-in combat” in Afghanistan next to the international contingent? In the inter-Afghan clashes between the Taliban and the “Karzai people” they are not particularly needed, and neither side has extra money for their maintenance. In addition, over the past decade, “jihadists” from Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Chinese Turkestan created an extensive underground in their own countries, established communication channels and arms supplies. Everything is ready to destabilize Central Asia, in the Ferghana Valley alone there is a fairly small spark - and it will flare up into several republics at once. And then there is the stirring of “jihadists” on the border with Turkmenistan, whose controlled destabilization is more than beneficial for a whole group of oil and gas companies.

And we have to admit that today the readiness of the Collective Security Treaty Organization to repel this particular threat is insufficient.

Strengthening the borders, declared at the last CSTO conferences, is superfluous, of course not. But how much will it help in the fight against the “jihadist underground” already in “our” territory? Here, efforts are needed in a different direction, the elaboration of a whole range of legal aspects of the CSTO charter, a new level of coordination of antiterrorist agencies and counterintelligence services. Because we should not be afraid of the non-Afghan Taliban, there are threats much more serious and more real ...
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  1. Phantom Revolution
    Phantom Revolution 24 October 2013 07: 57
    +6
    They are already here. And especially someone is not involved. In Moscow, hair generally stands on end, from prayer rooms. There are irreversible consequences that will suppress a lot of blood.
    1. fklj
      fklj 24 October 2013 08: 04
      +3
      The only question is who will suppress, the authorities or the people.
      1. Phantom Revolution
        Phantom Revolution 24 October 2013 08: 12
        10
        The authorities are unlikely, there are no preconditions, when the people will start, then the power will shake. I think this is a program, make the majority a minority and break into small ghettos areas that squabble with each other, and bureaucrats calmly continue to steal and rob, and the population is distracted by "shit". And also read the names of these authorities and everything will become clear.

        Here is a cheerful electorate, is this petty hooliganism or incitement interesting? For the slogan "Orthodoxy or death" they will quickly be accused of incitement, for the call to "jihad", even are silent.
        1. fklj
          fklj 24 October 2013 08: 19
          +5
          The problem is created by the authorities. And nobody is going to solve it. In my opinion, this is one of the areas of the ongoing genocide of the Russian people.
          1. Phantom Revolution
            Phantom Revolution 24 October 2013 08: 36
            +6
            Read about "strategy 2020", it does not add optimism. There are a lot of analytics. Some have a lot of emotion. But the content is about the same.
          2. xetai9977
            xetai9977 24 October 2013 09: 29
            +7
            Since 1978, a generation has grown up in Afghanistan that knows nothing but to fight. The author’s statement, they say, drones are almost a panacea for guerrilla warfare, of course, do not inspire confidence, although certainly drones themselves are an effective thing. The Afghans themselves must sort it out and no foreign intervention has given and will not give effect. You just need to strengthen the borders.
            1. rolik
              rolik 24 October 2013 15: 01
              +6
              Quote: xetai9977
              Since 1978, a generation has grown in Afghanistan that can do nothing but fight

              Such a generation did not grow up there since 1978, but in 1919 Amanullah Khan proclaimed the independence of Afghanistan from Great Britain. The authorities of Soviet Russia welcomed this act. After another Anglo-Afghan war, Great Britain was forced to recognize the independence of Afghanistan. Civil War in Afghanistan 1928 - 1929 In 1929, Amanullah Khan was overthrown as a result of the Bachai Sakao uprising, inspired by the British secret services. In the same year, Bachai Sakao was overthrown by Nadir Khan, who enlisted the support of the British. It should be said that Bachai Sakao is not a name, but a contemptuous nickname, translated into Russian, meaning "son of a water-bearer." This usurper of the Afghan throne was a Tajik from a poor family. He himself declared himself Padishah Khabibullah. And there were also the coups of 1973, in 1975, the Afghan War (1979-1989), the Civil War in Afghanistan (1989-1992), the Civil War in Afghanistan (1992-2001), the NATO War in Afghanistan.
              And, again, we note that here again the British poured water)))) everywhere they managed to stick their nose. So, the accusation of the USSR that everything began with him in a peaceful and flourishing country is another lie.
              1. zub46
                zub46 24 October 2013 21: 38
                +2
                Professionalism "You will not drink and you will not lose". It's nice to read information from knowledgeable people. Thanks.
    2. APES
      APES 24 October 2013 11: 13
      +3
      "Efforts in a different direction are needed here"

      namely:
      recognition that Russia is at war,
      hence all the necessary actions according to wartime
    3. vjhbc
      vjhbc 24 October 2013 20: 15
      0
      when the Taliban were in power, they almost completely destroyed the drug trade and the British royal family didn’t like it very much, which controls up to 70% of drug trafficking, so a fairy tale about bad Taliban terrorists was invented and the CIA ordered his agent bin Laden to play a universal villain from himself and after restoration of the plantations they simply wrote off his poppy
  2. fklj
    fklj 24 October 2013 08: 00
    +3
    It will be hot on the banks of the Panj, then in Central Asia, then in Russia.
    1. stalkerwalker
      stalkerwalker 24 October 2013 08: 47
      14
      Quote: fklj
      It will be hot on the banks of the Panj, then in Central Asia, then in Russia.

      It will be hot everywhere - from the Panj to the Northern Dvina, from Baltiysk to Vladivostok, if the authorities do not put obstacles to the spread of radical Islamism. The actions of armed bandits in Syria (and not only) in relation to representatives of other faiths are a good example for tolerant Europe, as well as for corrupt and overgrown law enforcement officers in Russia.
  3. ed65b
    ed65b 24 October 2013 08: 40
    +8
    After the American invasion, the Taliban leaders hoped for a repetition of the partisan war, which partially justified itself in the confrontation with the USSR. But the emergence of drones dramatically reduced the effectiveness of this tactic. From 2004 to January 2012, "drones" - as these aircraft call it in the USA - launched 285 rocket attacks on ordinary militants and Taliban leaders.

    The Taliban could not find a state sponsor. ready to pay for weapons and upkeep in training camps controlled by the country. What the United States did in condoning the Taliban during Soviet times was not done by Russia in the United States after the invasion of Afghanistan. Just imagine for a moment what would happen to the armies of the coalition countries if Russia undertook to support the Taliban. I think they would have flown out of Afghanistan without even having won there for three years. And drones would not help. Each drone has its own needle.
  4. air wolf
    air wolf 24 October 2013 09: 58
    +2
    So we will fight
  5. vlad0
    vlad0 24 October 2013 10: 15
    +2
    In general, the article is correct, with the exception of certain points, it seems that drones are like a kind of new war. Indeed, they inflict up to 150 blows a year, but this is mainly in Waziristan (north-west of Pakistan), and this will not be able to change the situation globally. The only thing the Yankees were able to minimize was the Pakistani side’s assistance to the militants from Afghanistan, putting the border under control through UAVs and airships.
    A kind of parity between the Taliban and the Amers has also been correctly noted. Mullah Omar makes statements about the beginning of jihad every year. Could, long ago the Americans would have been knocked out. This means that they cannot or do not want to. Rather, the second. Obviously, the Taliban also gets something from the West. Probably, this is part of financial assistance to the "Afghan people", and payment for loyalty, and assistance in selling drugs. It is doubtful that local Afghan, Tajik, Uzbek and other bai would be able to establish such drug trafficking on their own around the world.
    The Americans didn’t enter Afghanistan in 2001 for that, they spent billions to leave so easily. They are there for a long time.
  6. Ivanovich47
    Ivanovich47 24 October 2013 10: 36
    +4
    None of the declared goals of the US invasion of Afghanistan have been met. The time has come to ask the question, and what was the true purpose of the US (NATO) war in Afghanistan? No one believes the tales of Al Qaeda's revenge for September 11. What are the vital interests of the Americans in this region? It is most likely that the US needs the destabilization of the situation in Afghanistan in a global confrontation with Russia and China. Driving chaos in Afghanistan. America keeps abreast of all the processes taking place in this explosive region. Moreover, the US borders are far away. and the borders of Russia and China are near.
    1. kaktus
      kaktus 24 October 2013 16: 32
      +2
      but Obama has a double Nobel Peace Prize wassat
  7. vlad.svargin
    vlad.svargin 24 October 2013 10: 58
    +2
    Strengthening the borders, declared at the last CSTO conferences, is superfluous, of course not. But how much will it help in the fight against the “jihadist underground” already in “our” territory? Here, efforts are needed in a different direction, the elaboration of a whole range of legal aspects of the CSTO charter, a new level of coordination of antiterrorist agencies and counterintelligence services. Because we should not be afraid of the non-Afghan Taliban, there are threats much more serious and more real ...

    Under the "guise of migration" the "jihadist underground" can freely penetrate into our country. We have no true control over the visitors. He "exists" only in the "talkology of bureaucrats" interested in their pockets. Is it really not enough of Pugachev, Sogry, Birilevo and others? What other "thunder" is needed for the authorities to finally be convinced that their policy leads to the destruction of the country? Our people and authorities are completely different concepts. The people, this is one thing, but the authorities are "governor generals", led from abroad. Is it really necessary to wait for the "club" as in 1612 or 1917 (sorry, unsuccessfully in 1612 they "chose" a foreign tsar from Europe, but all is not lost)
  8. Silkway0026
    Silkway0026 24 October 2013 11: 06
    +3
    p. Indos will leave - to strengthen the border and insolently water the fields with drugs with herbicides. Or napalm. and what for all howling. it is a threat to our national security.
  9. knn54
    knn54 24 October 2013 12: 28
    +5
    -Because the Taliban’s coming to power, a large part of the population, having plenty of fun with the charms of Karzai’s democracy, will support it.
    55% of Pashtuns are unequivocal. And the Western press preferred not to mention that on the eve of the American invasion, the Taliban allowed women to leave their homes unaccompanied by a man, joined the celebration of March 8 and allowed women to drive ...
    -And I have to admit that today the readiness of the Collective Security Treaty Organization to repel this particular threat is insufficient.
    For 20 years, in no republic has the power hit a finger to establish a dialogue with society, with the same Islam. He was driven into a corner and then they want peace from him. The emergence of extremists is the result of the efforts of Karimov or Rakhmon. All mines under the power are laid by her herself. Civil war will be waged against them. And the inhabitants of Central Asia still remember the USSR, in the vast majority they still speak Russian. A tough policy against the current regimes will only strengthen the authority of the Russian Federation in the eyes of the peoples, and of the same migrant workers.
    - Because we should not be afraid of the Afghan Taliban, there are threats that are much more serious and real ...
    “If you know your enemy well and know yourself well, you can not be afraid of the outcome of even a thousand battles. If you know yourself, but do not know the enemy, then after each victory you will also experience defeat. If you know neither yourself nor the enemy, then you will lose in every battle. ” Song Zi
    PS And today, from a security point of view, Kazakhstan and Russia urgently need to resolve the issue of cooperation with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. It is easier for the Uzbeks, they simply mine it. AND
    The most difficult is the Tajik section and the resulting corridor between China and Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Therefore, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Russia need Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to maximally involve the CSTO and strengthen borders. They do not want to - it is necessary to build a border on the Shu River.
  10. avg
    avg 24 October 2013 16: 54
    +1
    It is necessary to give a damn about tolerance and water poppy fields from the air with orange, dichlorvos, any de-tom capable of destroying them, and Aborigines will tear anger at American bases.
  11. homosum20
    homosum20 24 October 2013 17: 11
    0
    That would be in Ukraine so the Communists said about the pact with the European Union.
  12. baku1999
    baku1999 24 October 2013 20: 48
    +1
    WHAT YOU FIGHT FOR, ON THAT AND RANGE, Messrs. P INDOSES !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SOON THEY WILL COME TO YOU AT THE GUEST, WAIT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  13. saygon66
    saygon66 24 October 2013 21: 10
    0
    - Carla-bearded was right ... the laws of history were written for everyone! And once, a long time ago, in one small country, the authorities just did not take into account the interests of their people, therefore, they had everything in the authorities, ZER GUT, and they wanted, in the eyes of other authorities, to look pretty like that. And the people, thinking hard, chose another power for themselves! And such an oop has come for everyone, I’ll tell you that 70 is already over the age of both its own and others recall ... How is it, by the way, that nothing burns in the capital?
  14. Mikhail3
    Mikhail3 24 October 2013 21: 30
    0
    What is the basis of the described scheme? On a powerful financial backing. There are two sources. The first is drugs, the second is "international aid". So - drugs.
    Is a poppy needed now to produce the deadliest dope? Of course not! Why get into the crop when high-performance chemical processes running in the bowels of the most advanced robotic chemical reactors provide you with any amount of anything? Yes, the Afghans will not do it, not a microscope on pushtun, yeah. So they are not needed - production lines produced in Europe and America need a few units of personnel. They don’t even need to be repaired, they beat their price for a couple of hours of work, so everything just changes completely.
    But Afghanistan is an irreplaceable brand! There, the savage Taliban are brewing all these tons of dope in clay pots! Ah, scoundrels! And elf-like Americans and other Europeans, pure to complete transparency, are tirelessly fighting these dirty Taliban! You can only hear how another "limited contingent" flew home, affectionately sent under the backside of the knee. Why? More on this below.
    "International Aid". Money that Americans pay to not be shot at. Minor. And much larger sums ripped off from the "allies", and to be honest, part of the tribute that the Americans collect from slaves. After all, this awful, awful, awful Afghanistan is such a force majeure! Here comes a hundred million from you, Germany. And we built a hundred schools on them, honestly, honestly! But the stinking Taliban, evil barbarians, have already blown up these one hundred schools with their inhuman rubber bombs! I don’t have a penny, translate, Germany another one hundred million, and I’m perky! Do not try to delay the payment!
    In short - the scheme is extremely unstable. The endlessly greedy and endlessly mean creatures that organized it are about to enter the very wall into which they always enter at full speed. The scheme is not controlled by any organizing center in principle. It will be as always - filthy greedy, tearing pieces there and tearing each other's throats for them, will not leave funds for the functioning of the scheme. More and more, field commanders will get a bullet in a filthy mug instead of a sweet piece. Because there aren’t enough gingerbreads for everyone, and a clean jonsmith doesn’t intend to share with the dirty savage (although for my taste ... I would choose a Pashtun. Even if in blood, but I have not forgotten about the honor ...).
    From the article we can conclude that the situation is stabilizing ... here the field commanders will begin to conduct classes at cricket clubs and donate to charity, widely and beautifully. Well, well ... Dirt and blood from the bursting bubble will soon flood the eternal mountains again.
  15. Strong
    Strong 24 October 2013 23: 10
    +1
    // After the American invasion, Taliban leaders counted on a repeat of the partisan war, which partially justified itself in the confrontation with the USSR. But the appearance of drones catastrophically reduced the effectiveness of this tactic.

    These are the very unsuitable drones that kill civilians.