Here comes the Taliban ...
What threats await Russia after a possible change of power in Kabul?
The leader of the Taliban movement, Mohammed Omar, said that he would begin jihad against the Afghan authorities if the administration of President Hamid Karzai signs a security agreement with Washington. And soon after his statement, Arsala Jamal was killed, the governor of Logar province, in the past - the governor of Khost province and head of the campaign campaign of H. Karzai in 2009 year.
Naturally, the Taliban were appointed suspects in the murder, promising to destroy government officials collaborating with the presidential administration.
Meanwhile, the killing of Arsala Jamal, a citizen of Canada, who in the closest way had been associated with all sorts of Western organizations throughout his career, perfectly illustrates the customs prevailing in the country today. And yet - the so-called “Afghan democracy” being built with the help of the West, which makes the coming to power of the “new Taliban” just a matter of time ...
Before explaining that this is the “new Taliban”, a little bit stories. In March, 2001, an emissary of the then Taliban arrived in Washington for talks with the US administration. George W. Bush’s team seriously considered recognizing the Taliban government - provided that it is willing to cooperate with the United States in the development of oil reserves and the construction of an oil pipeline in the region of Central Asia. As a gift to Bush, an Afghan carpet was brought, which was later beaten by an American administration official during negotiations with the emissary: "Either you accept our offer of gold-covered carpet, or we will bury you under the carpet of bombs." Negotiations were held until 2 in August 2001, the Taliban did not accept the conditions proposed by the American side, and signed the verdict. Two months later, Operation Enduring Freedom began, ending the “old Taliban.”
After the American invasion, the Taliban leaders counted on a repetition of the guerrilla war, which partially justified itself in the confrontation with the USSR. But the appearance drones catastrophically reduced the effectiveness of this tactic. From 2004 to January 2012 "drones"- as these aircraft are called in the United States - launched 285 missile attacks on ordinary militants and Taliban leaders.
Of course, many civilians died in the process, and many of the survivors took up weaponto get revenge, but the main goal was achieved. The drones deprived the Taliban leaders of the opportunity to wage the classic partisan war under the “strike-and-descend to shelter on adjacent territory” scheme.
In addition to purely military aspects, American tactics included political elements that the Taliban were unable to resist. In the view of the US leadership, Afghanistan is nothing more than a springboard for further expansion. With this approach, the interests of the “native population” are of no interest to anyone, “the problems of the Sheriff's Indians do not bother.” The main thing is the relative stability around the places of deployment of military personnel of the international, read-American, contingent.
Historically, the role of the central government in maintaining stability in the country is quite symbolic. The Karzai administration today is, for the most part, a decoration designed to demonstrate to the international community the successes of the United States and NATO in the matter of “exporting democracy”, and at the same time to report on the financial means spent on this “process”. In fact, the country’s governance is structured in accordance with a scheme that economist and historian Neil Ferguson, who economically consulted US Senator John McCain in 2008, described exhaustively, described the electoral campaign of US Senator John McCain in the nineteenth century. They simply did not have the strength to establish their authority in the rest of the country. This is a lot like what is happening in Afghanistan at the moment. There is a choice. Either you control the capital, and you hand over the rest of the country to the leaders of the field commanders, or you find yourself involved in an extremely cruel and possibly useless war throughout the territory of Afghanistan. ”
It is the field commanders who today provide control over the situation in each Afghan province, receiving from Kabul - more precisely, from the US, because the Afghan budget for 91 percentage consists of international injections - “loyalty fee”.
Before us is a typical control scheme of the British colony of the XIX century. Tribal leaders receive a "reward for loyalty" from the colonial administration, the right to dispose uncontrollably in the territory entrusted to them the life and death of the native population and, most importantly, to earn those means that are most suitable for them. Heroin production? Please, according to the NATO classification, this is a “traditional craft”, which cannot be touched, because the economy of the provinces will collapse, the incomes of the leaders will fall. But they need a personal militia to maintain ... Racket on the roads? No problem, create a "private security company," and Kabul will sign a contract with you for "cargo escort." This is not an exaggeration, but the everyday life of an Afghan province.
With such a system, the “political sympathies” of the field commanders have no significance for the international coalition and the Kabul administration: they provide control over the territory, and all right.
After 2001, the Taliban faced a dilemma: either sit in the mountains and shake from the buzzing “drones” flying over you, or integrate into the folding system. On the one hand - stagnation and the threat of physical destruction. On the other - the free and well-fed life of local kings, the proceeds from the drug trade, the right to personal militia and a piece of territory from which you can feed yourself and feed the clan standing behind you.
Those who choose the second path are the very “new Taliban”, which in the West is called moderate, and which the same West is not averse to seeing in the “coalition” government. It is perfectly integrated into the existing economic and political system of the country. The scandalous sensation was the data published in 2010 in the USA in the report of the head of the subcommittee on national security and foreign affairs of the House of Representatives John Tierney. The title of the document - “Leaders of local armed groups, incorporated”: Extortion and corruption along the American routes of cargo transportation in Afghanistan “- speaks for itself.
The scheme outlined in the report was simple, but it was flawlessly profitable. Cargo destined for US troops in Afghanistan arrives through Pakistan or Central Asia at two distribution points: one near Kabul, the other near Kandahar. Then they are sent to more than two hundred American bases scattered around the country, and within the framework of a special program worth more than 2 billions of dollars. Afghan transportation companies are involved in the transportation of goods, contracts with which were signed by Watan Risk Management, controlled by the cousins of Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Well, his brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai, distributed security contracts. The task of “family work” and the main function of presidential relatives was to negotiate with “subcontractors”. Translated into a normal language - with field commanders of the Taliban, on the territory of which the convoy must pass, about the safe movement of goods. Moreover, the "Taliban contract" provided a full range of services - provided security, dealt with other militants, gave bribes to local governors, police officers and military. So every week the field commanders of the “new Taliban” received 1,6 – 2 million dollars from the US budget. The profitability of such a “job” has led to the emergence among the Taliban of a whole stratum of new field commanders who earn on the road-guard business.
Naturally, this is not the only source of income for the “new Taliban.” He has a stake in the construction business, in the energy sector, in the opium fields ... However, this information will not surprise anyone. And that's not the point. The main thing is that there is no serious confrontation between the international coalition led by Washington and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Moreover, the US military presence in the country has nothing to do with the war against the Taliban or the entity called al-Qaeda.
“The new Taliban, formed over the years, feels great in the context of symbiosis with international economic assistance. That is, under the conditions of kickbacks and cuts, in which the Karzai administration, international companies, and the Taliban themselves are equally involved. But their advantage over the Kabul government in the eyes of the Afghans is that if Karzai is “Bribed”, permeating all the corruption, the total lawlessness of the commanders' leaders and their militia, then the Taliban are Sharia norms that are densely mixed with the country's traditional values.
In the eyes of the local philistine today, the Taliban are order, absence of bribes and a fair trial. And because the coming of the Taliban to power, a large part of the population, who had eaten enough of the charms of “democracy Karzai”, will support.
In addition, today the “new“ Taliban ”has abandoned the maximalism of the period of its formation, with its perception of any elements of the Western way of life as a creature of shaitan. The current Taliban, having tried the “consumer society”, found pleasant moments in it and refused to literally follow the requirements of Wahhabi preachers from madrasahs in the eighties Pakistani refugee camps, where they started. Actually, this rejection of the fundamentalism of the “old Taliban” makes the current movement contractual in the eyes of the West.
By introducing the Taliban into power, giving them a place in the coalition government, the United States, in full accordance with the colonial principle of "divide and rule," provide themselves with the guarantee of their usefulness to political elites. Consequently - and guarantees further stay in Afghanistan. In the struggle that will unfold between the Taliban and the “Karzai people” for spheres of influence, for the redistribution of income from drug trafficking and international assistance, Washington has every chance to control the country for a long time.
And here the question arises: how will the preservation of the American presence turn for Russia and the post-Soviet states of Central Asia?
Professionals were hardly ever taken seriously by the thesis that the United States and NATO are fighting for Russian interests in Afghanistan.
Although a number of experts continue to consider it to this day, keeping the naive calmness of consciousness. What are the threats to Russia emanating from Afghanistan that Americans are “covering their breasts”?
Protect from Taliban expansion? Tomorrow the Taliban come to power - they still will not have the strength to expand into Central Asia, because all their material and human resources will be used for the intra-Afghan confrontation, to fight with opponents inside the country.
But there are two threats that during the American presence took shape, as they say, “in full growth”.
First of all it is, of course, drugs. A side effect of “Enduring Freedom” was the monopoly of Afghan heroin on the Russian market, a sharp increase in drug exports from Afghanistan to Russia. From here - another threat. Strengthening of transnational criminal gangs in Central Asia, closely related to the drug business and drug trafficking from Afghanistan to Russia. However, the “opium war of 2.0”, connected with the American presence in Afghanistan, is a separate topic, full of unexpected twists and scandalous details.
The second, in order, but not least, threat is “international jihad”. It is clear that the United States will not leave Afghanistan. Bidding, which suits Karzai about the conditions of the American stay - a theatrical act, nothing more. The reduction in the number of military contingents in Afghanistan will be offset by an increase in the staff of private military companies, paid from the Afghan budget, that's all.
Another question is, where will the Islamists from the Central Asian republics and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China go, who for a decade without special problems, are training and “run-in combat” in Afghanistan next to the international contingent? In the inter-Afghan clashes between the Taliban and the “Karzai people” they are not particularly needed, and neither side has extra money for their maintenance. In addition, over the past decade, “jihadists” from Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Chinese Turkestan created an extensive underground in their own countries, established communication channels and arms supplies. Everything is ready to destabilize Central Asia, in the Ferghana Valley alone there is a fairly small spark - and it will flare up into several republics at once. And then there is the stirring of “jihadists” on the border with Turkmenistan, whose controlled destabilization is more than beneficial for a whole group of oil and gas companies.
And we have to admit that today the readiness of the Collective Security Treaty Organization to repel this particular threat is insufficient.
Strengthening the borders, declared at the last CSTO conferences, is superfluous, of course not. But how much will it help in the fight against the “jihadist underground” already in “our” territory? Here, efforts are needed in a different direction, the elaboration of a whole range of legal aspects of the CSTO charter, a new level of coordination of antiterrorist agencies and counterintelligence services. Because we should not be afraid of the non-Afghan Taliban, there are threats much more serious and more real ...
The leader of the Taliban movement, Mohammed Omar, said that he would begin jihad against the Afghan authorities if the administration of President Hamid Karzai signs a security agreement with Washington. And soon after his statement, Arsala Jamal was killed, the governor of Logar province, in the past - the governor of Khost province and head of the campaign campaign of H. Karzai in 2009 year.Naturally, the Taliban were appointed suspects in the murder, promising to destroy government officials collaborating with the presidential administration.
Meanwhile, the killing of Arsala Jamal, a citizen of Canada, who in the closest way had been associated with all sorts of Western organizations throughout his career, perfectly illustrates the customs prevailing in the country today. And yet - the so-called “Afghan democracy” being built with the help of the West, which makes the coming to power of the “new Taliban” just a matter of time ...
Before explaining that this is the “new Taliban”, a little bit stories. In March, 2001, an emissary of the then Taliban arrived in Washington for talks with the US administration. George W. Bush’s team seriously considered recognizing the Taliban government - provided that it is willing to cooperate with the United States in the development of oil reserves and the construction of an oil pipeline in the region of Central Asia. As a gift to Bush, an Afghan carpet was brought, which was later beaten by an American administration official during negotiations with the emissary: "Either you accept our offer of gold-covered carpet, or we will bury you under the carpet of bombs." Negotiations were held until 2 in August 2001, the Taliban did not accept the conditions proposed by the American side, and signed the verdict. Two months later, Operation Enduring Freedom began, ending the “old Taliban.”
After the American invasion, the Taliban leaders counted on a repetition of the guerrilla war, which partially justified itself in the confrontation with the USSR. But the appearance drones catastrophically reduced the effectiveness of this tactic. From 2004 to January 2012 "drones"- as these aircraft are called in the United States - launched 285 missile attacks on ordinary militants and Taliban leaders.
Of course, many civilians died in the process, and many of the survivors took up weaponto get revenge, but the main goal was achieved. The drones deprived the Taliban leaders of the opportunity to wage the classic partisan war under the “strike-and-descend to shelter on adjacent territory” scheme.
In addition to purely military aspects, American tactics included political elements that the Taliban were unable to resist. In the view of the US leadership, Afghanistan is nothing more than a springboard for further expansion. With this approach, the interests of the “native population” are of no interest to anyone, “the problems of the Sheriff's Indians do not bother.” The main thing is the relative stability around the places of deployment of military personnel of the international, read-American, contingent.
Historically, the role of the central government in maintaining stability in the country is quite symbolic. The Karzai administration today is, for the most part, a decoration designed to demonstrate to the international community the successes of the United States and NATO in the matter of “exporting democracy”, and at the same time to report on the financial means spent on this “process”. In fact, the country’s governance is structured in accordance with a scheme that economist and historian Neil Ferguson, who economically consulted US Senator John McCain in 2008, described exhaustively, described the electoral campaign of US Senator John McCain in the nineteenth century. They simply did not have the strength to establish their authority in the rest of the country. This is a lot like what is happening in Afghanistan at the moment. There is a choice. Either you control the capital, and you hand over the rest of the country to the leaders of the field commanders, or you find yourself involved in an extremely cruel and possibly useless war throughout the territory of Afghanistan. ”
It is the field commanders who today provide control over the situation in each Afghan province, receiving from Kabul - more precisely, from the US, because the Afghan budget for 91 percentage consists of international injections - “loyalty fee”.
Before us is a typical control scheme of the British colony of the XIX century. Tribal leaders receive a "reward for loyalty" from the colonial administration, the right to dispose uncontrollably in the territory entrusted to them the life and death of the native population and, most importantly, to earn those means that are most suitable for them. Heroin production? Please, according to the NATO classification, this is a “traditional craft”, which cannot be touched, because the economy of the provinces will collapse, the incomes of the leaders will fall. But they need a personal militia to maintain ... Racket on the roads? No problem, create a "private security company," and Kabul will sign a contract with you for "cargo escort." This is not an exaggeration, but the everyday life of an Afghan province.
With such a system, the “political sympathies” of the field commanders have no significance for the international coalition and the Kabul administration: they provide control over the territory, and all right.
After 2001, the Taliban faced a dilemma: either sit in the mountains and shake from the buzzing “drones” flying over you, or integrate into the folding system. On the one hand - stagnation and the threat of physical destruction. On the other - the free and well-fed life of local kings, the proceeds from the drug trade, the right to personal militia and a piece of territory from which you can feed yourself and feed the clan standing behind you.
Those who choose the second path are the very “new Taliban”, which in the West is called moderate, and which the same West is not averse to seeing in the “coalition” government. It is perfectly integrated into the existing economic and political system of the country. The scandalous sensation was the data published in 2010 in the USA in the report of the head of the subcommittee on national security and foreign affairs of the House of Representatives John Tierney. The title of the document - “Leaders of local armed groups, incorporated”: Extortion and corruption along the American routes of cargo transportation in Afghanistan “- speaks for itself.
The scheme outlined in the report was simple, but it was flawlessly profitable. Cargo destined for US troops in Afghanistan arrives through Pakistan or Central Asia at two distribution points: one near Kabul, the other near Kandahar. Then they are sent to more than two hundred American bases scattered around the country, and within the framework of a special program worth more than 2 billions of dollars. Afghan transportation companies are involved in the transportation of goods, contracts with which were signed by Watan Risk Management, controlled by the cousins of Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Well, his brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai, distributed security contracts. The task of “family work” and the main function of presidential relatives was to negotiate with “subcontractors”. Translated into a normal language - with field commanders of the Taliban, on the territory of which the convoy must pass, about the safe movement of goods. Moreover, the "Taliban contract" provided a full range of services - provided security, dealt with other militants, gave bribes to local governors, police officers and military. So every week the field commanders of the “new Taliban” received 1,6 – 2 million dollars from the US budget. The profitability of such a “job” has led to the emergence among the Taliban of a whole stratum of new field commanders who earn on the road-guard business.
Naturally, this is not the only source of income for the “new Taliban.” He has a stake in the construction business, in the energy sector, in the opium fields ... However, this information will not surprise anyone. And that's not the point. The main thing is that there is no serious confrontation between the international coalition led by Washington and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Moreover, the US military presence in the country has nothing to do with the war against the Taliban or the entity called al-Qaeda.
“The new Taliban, formed over the years, feels great in the context of symbiosis with international economic assistance. That is, under the conditions of kickbacks and cuts, in which the Karzai administration, international companies, and the Taliban themselves are equally involved. But their advantage over the Kabul government in the eyes of the Afghans is that if Karzai is “Bribed”, permeating all the corruption, the total lawlessness of the commanders' leaders and their militia, then the Taliban are Sharia norms that are densely mixed with the country's traditional values.
In the eyes of the local philistine today, the Taliban are order, absence of bribes and a fair trial. And because the coming of the Taliban to power, a large part of the population, who had eaten enough of the charms of “democracy Karzai”, will support.
In addition, today the “new“ Taliban ”has abandoned the maximalism of the period of its formation, with its perception of any elements of the Western way of life as a creature of shaitan. The current Taliban, having tried the “consumer society”, found pleasant moments in it and refused to literally follow the requirements of Wahhabi preachers from madrasahs in the eighties Pakistani refugee camps, where they started. Actually, this rejection of the fundamentalism of the “old Taliban” makes the current movement contractual in the eyes of the West.
By introducing the Taliban into power, giving them a place in the coalition government, the United States, in full accordance with the colonial principle of "divide and rule," provide themselves with the guarantee of their usefulness to political elites. Consequently - and guarantees further stay in Afghanistan. In the struggle that will unfold between the Taliban and the “Karzai people” for spheres of influence, for the redistribution of income from drug trafficking and international assistance, Washington has every chance to control the country for a long time.
And here the question arises: how will the preservation of the American presence turn for Russia and the post-Soviet states of Central Asia?
Professionals were hardly ever taken seriously by the thesis that the United States and NATO are fighting for Russian interests in Afghanistan.
Although a number of experts continue to consider it to this day, keeping the naive calmness of consciousness. What are the threats to Russia emanating from Afghanistan that Americans are “covering their breasts”?
Protect from Taliban expansion? Tomorrow the Taliban come to power - they still will not have the strength to expand into Central Asia, because all their material and human resources will be used for the intra-Afghan confrontation, to fight with opponents inside the country.
But there are two threats that during the American presence took shape, as they say, “in full growth”.
First of all it is, of course, drugs. A side effect of “Enduring Freedom” was the monopoly of Afghan heroin on the Russian market, a sharp increase in drug exports from Afghanistan to Russia. From here - another threat. Strengthening of transnational criminal gangs in Central Asia, closely related to the drug business and drug trafficking from Afghanistan to Russia. However, the “opium war of 2.0”, connected with the American presence in Afghanistan, is a separate topic, full of unexpected twists and scandalous details.
The second, in order, but not least, threat is “international jihad”. It is clear that the United States will not leave Afghanistan. Bidding, which suits Karzai about the conditions of the American stay - a theatrical act, nothing more. The reduction in the number of military contingents in Afghanistan will be offset by an increase in the staff of private military companies, paid from the Afghan budget, that's all.
Another question is, where will the Islamists from the Central Asian republics and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China go, who for a decade without special problems, are training and “run-in combat” in Afghanistan next to the international contingent? In the inter-Afghan clashes between the Taliban and the “Karzai people” they are not particularly needed, and neither side has extra money for their maintenance. In addition, over the past decade, “jihadists” from Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Chinese Turkestan created an extensive underground in their own countries, established communication channels and arms supplies. Everything is ready to destabilize Central Asia, in the Ferghana Valley alone there is a fairly small spark - and it will flare up into several republics at once. And then there is the stirring of “jihadists” on the border with Turkmenistan, whose controlled destabilization is more than beneficial for a whole group of oil and gas companies.
And we have to admit that today the readiness of the Collective Security Treaty Organization to repel this particular threat is insufficient.
Strengthening the borders, declared at the last CSTO conferences, is superfluous, of course not. But how much will it help in the fight against the “jihadist underground” already in “our” territory? Here, efforts are needed in a different direction, the elaboration of a whole range of legal aspects of the CSTO charter, a new level of coordination of antiterrorist agencies and counterintelligence services. Because we should not be afraid of the non-Afghan Taliban, there are threats much more serious and more real ...
Information