Military Review

Rumors about the death of Russia are greatly exaggerated

70
After the end of communism in 1991, Washington repeatedly underestimates Russia. As a result, American policy repeatedly failed miserably — in Ukraine, where the Orange Revolution 2004, supported by the Americans, lost its conquests in favor of an administration friendly to Moscow; in 2008, when America supported the attempt of Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvilli to include the provinces with the Russian majority in the borders of Georgia; and in 2013, when the Russian card beat the American one in the Middle East, and Russia seized diplomatic leadership in a crisis with Syrian chemical weapons.


Moscow once again broke American diplomats in tatters. If they are so poor, how is it that they are smart? - Americans play Monopoly, and Russians play chess. Russia found fault lines in American politics and compensated its insignificant presence with an advantage in leverage. So, Russia took advantage of the indecisiveness of the last two US administrations in relation to Iran, exposing itself as a solution provider for the problems it helped create. From a technical point of view, Moscow’s work is commendable, even if its plans are malicious.

Of course, Russia is in crisis. But Russia is in crisis since the time when Peter the Great built modern Russia with one foot in Siberia, and the other in Eastern Europe. This is not a national state, but an empire, the structure of which had defects from the very beginning. Russia has always taxed European provinces to support non-economic expansion in its Far East. This policy ended in failure between the 1905 war of the year and Japan and the 1914-1918 war. with Germany. In 1945, Russia regained its influence in the East and lost it in 1989.

Its population has fallen from its 149-million maximum in the 1992 year to 143 million in the 2012 year and threatens to fall even faster. Russia's demographic data is weak, although it is worth wondering if it is much worse than in the 1945 year after it lost 15 percent of its entire population in the war, not to mention a significant part of the production capacity and material base. This did not prevent the Soviet Union from building thermonuclear bombs and ICBMs, as well as outrunning America in space. The USSR suffered from the economic equivalent of arteriosclerosis, but almost won the cold war. Putin's economy suffered from a series of self-destructive failures, but this did not take Russia out of the game.

After the collapse of the USSR, Russia weakened, but not completely, and the self-reassuring triumphalism that characterized American ideas about the country turned out to be a poor adviser in formulating a political course. The new book by Ilan Berman - in fact, an essay stretched by long applications to the size of the book - assesses Russia's recent return of the status of a world power from the point of view of a predicted long-term catastrophe, which, in my opinion, will not occur within the horizon of political planning.

“At the moment, most observers are not seriously considering the possibility of the collapse of Russia,” writes Berman, vice president of the American Council on Foreign Policy. - Indeed, the future of Russia looks relatively bright. Although the decade after the collapse of the USSR in 1991 was an eyewitness to Russia's pacification and humiliation, over the past ten years, it has caught up, returning to the international stage under the leadership of its current president, Vladimir Putin. ” Berman published the book before Russia seized the initiative in the Middle East with a plan to destroy the chemical weapons Syria, which only underlines his arguments.

However, Russia faces what it calls a demographic collapse:

Russia is dying. Russia is undergoing a catastrophic post-Soviet social recession caused by an extremely low standard of living, which has escaped the control of drug addiction and the AIDS crisis, which officials call a “trap”. Due to death and emigration, the population of the Russian Federation is reduced by about half a million souls each year. At this rate, the once powerful Russian state may lose a quarter of its population by the middle of this century. And according to some forecasts, if the demographic curve of Russia does not change, by 2080, the number of its population can collapse only to 52 million people. This phenomenon — the massive reduction in the country's human capital and the collapse of its prospects as a viable modern state — was described by demographers as “the devastation of Russia”.

News, however, is that the trajectory of the movement of Russia has changed, although it is difficult to say how much. As 25 in July on the Forbes website, Mark Adomanis noticed, according to preliminary estimates, the birth rate in Russia in 2012 in the year soon exceeded the American one. Russia's demographic prospects are still unenviable, because the number of women of childbearing age will decline due to the extremely low birth rate in the 1990-s.

In 1990's birth rate in Russia collapsed

Rumors about the death of Russia are greatly exaggerated

... Therefore, the total number of women of childbearing age will fall:


Source: UN Forecast, Medium

The total fertility rate in Russia is now around 1,7 births per woman, with an average European 1,5 value, compared to the lowest level of 1999 of the year - less than 1,8. This heralds a recession, although much slower than many analysts had expected. This is not Hungary, where the fertility of the Hungarians barely exceeds the 0,8 births per woman, or half of the Russian level. In order to compensate for the demographic hole of 90, the birth rate must rise somewhere before 2,5, and this goal is almost impossible to achieve.

Berman adds: “Today, Russian Muslims, estimated at 21 million, still remain in a clear minority. But Muslims are on the way to constitute one fifth of the country's population by the end of this decade, and by the middle of the century its majority.

However, fertility recovery in Russia seems to be distributed among its regions in a more uniform way, and this suggests that the Muslim majority is a more distant perspective than was expected by demographers. Moreover, as I documented in my book 2011 of the year “How civilizations die (and why Islam dies too),” the birth rate among Muslims showed the sharpest decline among the rest of the world’s population. New documentary data on this subject in the 2012 study of the year led by Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute.

Russian demography is a moving target. As Berman notes, “in the 2012 year, for the first time since the fall of the USSR, the number of newborns exceeded the number of deaths. This excess was insignificant (the population of the country from January to September, 2012, grew by only two hundred thousand), but it was enough for Kremlin officials to announce that the demographic fortune turned to their country. ” Of course, this is not the case, but the strategic consequences will be felt, at the earliest, in a generation.

The jump in the birth rate in Russia over the past few years is partly due to the practice of offering state awards equivalent to 9500 US dollars to families after the birth of their second or third child. But there is almost no doubt that the revival of the Russian Orthodox Church played an important role. Throughout the industrialized world, there is a deep and stable relationship between faith and fertility, and the restoration of religion in Russia is a new and decisive factor in the country's demography.

The website of the Orthodox Church claims that moral imperatives are more important than financial incentives: “Putin gave Russian families a tangible incentive, maternity capital, in order to have children. He and his administration are now trying to change cultural norms in favor of a three-child family. But his success will depend on opponents of abortion, euthanasia and family supporters ... on their efforts to transform Putin’s appeals and financial support into a national movement. The fate of the Russian people depends on their success. "

The Orthodox Church claims that since 1991, it has almost tripled the number of its parishes. How widespread its impact, time will tell. This issue is crucial. However, Berman rejects the revival of the alliance of the Russian church and state as the beginning of "Orthodox Iran":

At the start of the 1990, Russia officially recognized the 31 religious denomination. But in subsequent years, the presence of most of them was reduced to zero by legislative means. Today, as a result of a return to the past, only four religions - Russian Orthodoxy, Islam, Judaism and Buddhism - are officially recognized by the Russian government. And with the help of the Kremlin, the Orthodox Church strengthens its influence and position. No wonder that this has exacerbated the already tense relations between the Russian state and its growing Muslim minority ... The Russian church — encouraged by the support of the Kremlin — is beginning to force out other forms of defining religious identity in Russia. And she does this just at the moment when the bonds holding together the various nationalities of the country are tense as never before.

The Orthodox Church has always been jealous of its position and tried to limit the activities of other Christian denominations. Orthodox revival occurred at the expense of the American missionaries - evangelists and Mormons. It also left an imprint on Russian politics, expressed in its distinctly conservative bias, including the hated law against “propaganda of homosexuality”. Although the fact that many aspects of life in Russia cause rejection among representatives of the West is hardly news. Rather, the question is whether the Orthodox revival will help reverse the country's demographic trends and the decline of morality, as well as boost Russian power. I do not know the answer to this question. Berman did not bother to ask him.

What is extremely lacking in today's Russia is the Russians themselves. As I reported in the 2008 essay of the year published here, the official figures for the Russian population do not include about 7 millions of Russians abandoned after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the “near abroad”, and now working in Russia as illegal migrants. Another 15 of millions of ethnic Russians live in Belarus, in Western Ukraine (as in the text; note mixednews.ru) and in Kazakhstan. To get them would be the fastest way to increase the number of Russians, and on this issue, Berman notes, unanimity reigns throughout the Russian political spectrum:

Those who determine the political course of Moscow recognize that adding ten million Belarusian citizens to the population of the Russian Federation would increase its total number by about 7 percent. The accession of Ukraine would give even more; ethnic Russians make up about 20 percent of the 45-million population of Ukraine, and if even a part of the country officially voted for joining, the number of Russian citizens would increase significantly. If other territories, which Moscow currently craves, including parts of neighboring Georgia and Kazakhstan, would be added, this figure would be even higher, which would significantly strengthen the weakening demography of the Russian Federation.

As I wrote in the 2008 year, “Russia is vitally interested in absorbing Belarus and Western Ukraine. No one cares about Belarus. She never had an independent state or national culture; The first grammar for the Belarusian language was printed only in 1918 year, and at home a little more than a third of the population of Belarus speaks it. Never territory with a population of 10 million people had a weaker argument in favor of independence. Given this reference, it seems natural to ask why Ukraine should worry about someone. ” Washington should allow Russia to reabsorb its orphaned provinces, but for its price, you get ethnic Russians, and we get your agreement on issues that are important to us: strategic defense in Poland and the Czech Republic, help with Iran and so on.

Could the United States make a similar deal with Putin at the beginning of the 2000s? - a moot point, given the sponsorship of America over 2004's Orange Revolution in Ukraine, which convinced Putin that he could not do business with the United States. The Bush administration brought Moscow out of itself, but did not struggle to maintain its influence in Ukraine and Georgia. The Obama administration simply handed over its positions, first abandoning the anti-missile defense facilities in Eastern Europe, and then adopting the Russian chemical weapons scheme for Syria (and it is possible that it plans the same for Iran’s nuclear program). Both approaches did not justify themselves.

What should America do now? Berman hints that the US should focus on fault lines in Russia itself, anticipating an internal explosion:

The Russian leadership is conducting a tough campaign against Islamic radicalism, hoping that the overwhelming superiority in forces will pacify the restless republics of the country. The failure of this approach is seen in the growth of Islamist violence in places like Tatarstan, as well as in the spread of radical Islam throughout the Eurasian center. In the coming years, this phenomenon will represent an increasing challenge to the stability and legitimacy of the Russian state ... Thus, the foundation for a future civil war in Russia, a fierce struggle for the soul of the Russian state, which will be fought along religious and ethnic lines, is now being laid.

Since the United States (quite rightly, in my opinion) armed the Afghan jihadists in the eighties in order to exhaust the Soviet Union, parts of the American foreign policy community dreamily look at Russia's Muslim underbelly as a potential source of pressure on America’s old enemy. cold war. This idea was good at the height of the Cold War, but now for a number of reasons it is disgusting. First, radical Islam is a greater threat to Western interests than Orthodox Russia, as we should have noticed after the explosions at the Boston Marathon. Secondly, it is doomed to failure. Russia is more ruthless than Washington in the repression of internal (note that messages from Russia always speak of those killed and not captured by terrorists). And most importantly, thirdly, American attempts to take advantage of Russia's internal problems simply cement the Chinese-Russian alliance. This is the most likely Russian reaction to a number of problems. America took advantage of the Sino-Soviet split to win the Cold War. Moscow may well decide that it is better to adjust to the growth of China’s power than to resist it.

Of course, Russia is very upset by the invasion of China into the territory of its former possessions, including the Far East and Central Asia. China’s growing economic influence on Russia's near abroad, such as its oil concession in Kazakhstan, relies on its commitment to infrastructure investments in transport, communications and energy in what China calls the “new Silk Road”.

China’s desire for leadership in the south and east of Russia is an annoying circumstance for Moscow, but not a “hotbed of tension,” as Berman suggests. The likelihood of a military conflict between China and Russia over the next 20 years ranges from negligible to non-existent. China operates with a long-term perspective; he will not fight for the territory, which, most likely, will fall to his feet in one or two centuries. Russia will probably conclude that it will receive more from China than from the United States. Russia and China have a common interest in containing potential problems with Muslims in Central Asia, and their cooperation is a natural consequence of a common need.

Washington should be worried about Russian and Chinese efforts to catch up with the United States in aerospace technology, which has not changed much in America over a generation. Whether the Sukhoi T-50 PAK-FA or the Chinese J-20 can compete with the American F-22 at the moment is doubtful. But after 5-10 years, the answer may already be different. America's technical superiority in the military aviation at risk, and its navy is shrinking to sizes unusual for a superpower.

The most unfortunate name was given by Berman to the chapter on “Russia who does not understand the Muslim world” In fact, Russia very clearly understands the Muslim world. She has teamed up with Saudi Arabia in supporting the Egyptian military government in the face of American pressure, and with Iran in defending the Syrian government against a motley company of jihadists thrown against him. Russia may well provide a replacement for American weapons that have suffered from a reduction in military aid to Egypt; if this happens, then Saudi Arabia will pay for it. Russia played for both sides in Iran, building a nuclear reactor in the Iranian Bushehr and alternately offering-recalling high-tech air defense systems.

Russia's tactical goals are impossible to discern; its goal, I suppose, is to retain the initiative, provoke its opponents to mistakes and turn them to their own advantage, as far as possible. As soon as America lost its determination to use force with respect to Iran’s nuclear program, it didn’t stand up to other problems in the region, especially the Syrian one, which gives Russia a chance to crawl as a regional mediator.

It is dangerous for the United States to make plans based on the assumption of Russia's internal collapse. Such a result cannot be ruled out, but it is unlikely. Russia is here for a long time; it will never return the positions that the Soviet Union occupied in 1980, but will remain a force in the foreseeable future. Washington never really understood that Russians are chess players, and chess is a game in which you cannot bluff. It is possible to interact with Russia only with the help of force, and the power of America flows away through several wounds that it has inflicted on itself.
Originator:
http://atimes.com/
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  1. pensioner
    pensioner 24 October 2013 07: 52
    27
    Rumors about the death of Russia are greatly exaggeratedThat's for sure. How many times have they already buried ... They won’t wait. And we will try to wait for them ... repeat
    1. SHILO
      SHILO 24 October 2013 08: 59
      +9
      As a result of this, American policy has repeatedly and miserably failed - in Ukraine, where the “Orange Revolution” of the 2004 year supported by the Americans lost its gains in favor of an administration friendly to Moscow


      It’s enough to skip this opus.
      1. Krasnoarmeec
        Krasnoarmeec 24 October 2013 13: 58
        +6
        Is it something I don’t observe the friendly Ukrainian administration towards Moscow, or am I reading the wrong news? what or has something changed since 2008? request
        1. Albert1988
          Albert1988 24 October 2013 17: 44
          +4
          Quote: Krasnoarmeec
          Is it something I don’t observe the friendly Ukrainian administration towards Moscow, or am I reading the wrong news? or has something changed since 2008?

          Well, the article was written by an article like the Americans themselves, the current administration of Ukraine is an EU puppet, not the USA, so only the fact that the pro-American administration has failed is true) True, this is only my opinion)
          1. Krasnoarmeec
            Krasnoarmeec 25 October 2013 09: 11
            +1
            I would say "facts on the face" yes
      2. v.lyamkin
        v.lyamkin 25 October 2013 12: 17
        +1
        In addition, I’ll add more pearls from the article: USSR ... almost won the Cold War. Super: almost won, a little pregnant, etc.
        And in general: many thanks to the church for its contribution to raising the birth rate.
  2. UVB
    UVB 24 October 2013 08: 03
    +7
    I liked the last paragraph in the article. Although I really want the author to be wrong about the lost positions of 1980.
    1. aksakal
      aksakal 24 October 2013 10: 22
      +6
      Quote: UVB
      I liked the last paragraph in the article. Although I really want the author to be wrong about the lost positions of 1980.

      - Well, as it were, the entire SAJ, despite its pro-American orientation, is quite objective. Well, about the pro-American orientation of the article - all authors have the right, Americans.
      I just got it right - Washington should be concerned about Russian and Chinese efforts to catch up with the US in aerospace technology, which over the generation has not changed much in America. Can the Sukhoy T-50 PAK-FA or the Chinese J-20 compete with the American F-22 at the moment, is questionable. But after years of 5-10, the answer may be different. America’s technical superiority in military aviation is at risk, and its navy shrinks to a size uncharacteristic of a superpower. - Sounds good and matches my IMHO. It is clear that PAK FA at the moment is just a few experimental products, so for now there is nothing to compare. And after 5-10 years - according to the authors of the subject maybe in another way, in my opinion IMHO - everything will definitely be differently. It remains only to work on this and just survive, wait.
      1. poquello
        poquello 24 October 2013 21: 57
        +2
        Quote: aksakal
        Washington should be concerned about Russian and Chinese efforts to catch up with the US in aerospace technology, which over the generation has not changed much in America. Can the Sukhoy T-50 PAK-FA or the Chinese J-20 compete with the American F-22 at the moment, is questionable. But after years of 5-10, the answer may be different. America’s technical superiority in military aviation is at risk, and its navy shrinks to a size uncharacteristic of a superpower. - Sounds good and matches my IMHO. It is clear that PAK FA at the moment is just a few experimental products, so for now there is nothing to compare.

        IMHO I do not agree, the case is the case when we harness for a long time, but drive fast. True, there is no urgent need for fast yet.
    2. Orel
      Orel 24 October 2013 10: 42
      +1
      Ungrateful business to predict the future. We ourselves create it today. And it does each of us. What Russia will be in the future depends on how we work today, how we act, what we believe in and what we want to achieve. The future does not depend on any forecasts, it is in our hands ...
    3. ed65b
      ed65b 24 October 2013 11: 03
      +3
      Quote: UVB
      I liked the last paragraph in the article. Although I really want the author to be wrong about the lost positions of 1980.

      I agree. we will return everything as always.
    4. Lesnik
      Lesnik 24 October 2013 22: 19
      +1
      Of course, I do not pretend to be a Vanga title on an all-Union scale, but the Russian Empire repeatedly fell and rose from its knees BUT WITH THIS GROWED BY TERRITORIES AND INFLUENCE !!!!!!!! It is worth recognizing that it cost millions of lives of compatriots but it was and WILL! No matter how much they try to enslave, destroy MY COUNTRY, the Anglo-Saxons nifig they did not succeed and they will not succeed! LGBTs themselves degenerateTechniki and Tolerasts!
      1. vezunchik
        vezunchik 24 October 2013 22: 53
        +1
        it will be when the whole population understands this and begins to act, and not wait for the good gentleman or a certain person who will come and do everything for us!
      2. Lesnik
        Lesnik 24 October 2013 23: 24
        0
        It looks like the slogan of URY patriots but pent!
  3. albai
    albai 24 October 2013 08: 08
    +5
    Washington never really understood that Russians are chess players, and chess is a game in which one cannot bluff. You can interact with Russia only with the help of force, and America’s power flows through several wounds that it inflicted on itself.
    This is probably the most important conclusion of the article. Well, if Russia can recover in the next decade, in the size of the late 80s, it will be a completely different song.
    1. Tyumen
      Tyumen 24 October 2013 11: 21
      0
      How do you imagine this? Conquer a bunch of independent former 'sisters' states? So this will be the third world war.
      1. albai
        albai 24 October 2013 11: 46
        +4
        Duc et is quite easy to buy with giblets of all the "sisters" in bulk, well, nobody canceled the carrot and stick. And then the sovereignty already overeat worse than ever. The roof is blowing.
        1. Tyumen
          Tyumen 24 October 2013 11: 56
          -2
          For example, did rich Azerbaijan get overboard? You talk like in a bazaar. :-)
          1. Lesnik
            Lesnik 24 October 2013 23: 45
            +1
            Maybe so, and maybe wait until the Turks again arrange a woodcarving!
        2. alone
          alone 24 October 2013 21: 16
          +1
          only rogue can buy with giblets. but the rich republics are unlikely to do this)). but without the rich, an alliance with the poor and parasites will not do anything good.
          a large number of subsidized federal entities will be supplemented by several more subsidized regions that will again feed those 8 non-subsidized ones.
          1. Lesnik
            Lesnik 24 October 2013 23: 48
            +1
            Cheto, I did not understand. What are you rich in hydrocarbons? So now they are yours and tomorrow China))))))))) together you will eat locusts and praise "what a nourishing locust and rich"
            1. alone
              alone 25 October 2013 00: 07
              0
              Quote: Forestman
              I don’t understand. Why are you rich in hydrocarbons there? So now they are yours and tomorrow China)))))))))


              first open the map and see where is China and where is Azerbaijan. then think a bit about what China benefits to buy hydrocarbons from us. why should the Chinese have our oil, if your side?)) don’t worry about us, we didn’t even need subsidies in the days of the USSR. how to get out without anyone's help
              1. Lesnik
                Lesnik 25 October 2013 00: 21
                0
                And you google for general development))))))) sometimes useful
      2. JIaIIoTb
        JIaIIoTb 24 October 2013 14: 48
        +1
        Will not be. Americans are arrogant but not suicidal. They themselves will give.
  4. Alexander Romanov
    Alexander Romanov 24 October 2013 08: 14
    18
    You can interact with Russia only from a position of strength laughing Those who tried, ended badly.
    1. Bigriver
      Bigriver 24 October 2013 14: 03
      +2
      Quote: Alexander Romanov
      You can interact with Russia only from a position of strength laughing Those who tried, ended badly.

      I also drew attention to this interesting statement. It turns out that the author admits that we are eternal, natural-born rivals who will never, like equals, sit at the negotiating table.
      The possibility of dialogue with us is not even allowed.
      Oh, how!
    2. silver_roman
      silver_roman 24 October 2013 18: 23
      +4
      That's it. And by the way, the United States is a country that practically does not know how to show strength, because the beating of "children" like Libya, Iraq, Somalia, Angola, etc. is not power. it would be if I now went to scatter the first-graders: and that I am strong after that? no, I would be the last link!
  5. Dazdranagon
    Dazdranagon 24 October 2013 08: 17
    +6
    At the expense of the demographic crisis, the author is right - it is difficult to put one child on his feet when there is a mortgage behind his back, let alone the second ... wassat
    1. stroporez
      stroporez 25 October 2013 09: 27
      +1
      for rent, all this tryndezh about demography ------- this is a frank banter. I'll explain -------- "leaders" tryndyat about demography ---- and they themselves do everything to ensure that the number of Russians has decreased even more , not otherwise, they sneer ........
  6. major071
    major071 24 October 2013 08: 19
    +9
    Even the most favorable outcome of the war will never lead to the decomposition of the main power of Russia, which is based on millions of Russians ... These latter, even if they are dismembered by international treatises, are just as quickly reconnected with each other as particles of a cut piece of mercury ... Otto von Bismarck.

    If Russia does not want its population in 50 years to be equal to the population of some kind of banana republic, then at the state level it is necessary to adopt and most importantly implement state programs aimed at increasing the birth rate, and most importantly raising the standard of living of the population. Enough to cut money already, stolen at the most want.
    1. Egoza
      Egoza 24 October 2013 09: 45
      +4
      Quote: major071
      Enough to cut money already, stolen at the most want.

      So now it’s time to return the stolen money to the national piggy bank, then it will be enough to raise the standard of living of the population. hi
      1. Tyumen
        Tyumen 24 October 2013 11: 13
        +2
        Children's thoughts. It's impossible. Khodorkovsky is in prison, and what has been added to the mythical "people's piggy bank"?
  7. makarov
    makarov 24 October 2013 08: 23
    +5
    It is bad that authorship is not indicated. I will fill this gap. The author of the material is David Goldman. Senior Researcher at the London Center for Political Studies and Junior Researcher, Middle East Forum.
  8. alexng
    alexng 24 October 2013 08: 32
    +2
    Here, most likely, the laws of Nature appeared. The world can exist only in a state of equilibrium. Any distortions lead to the destruction of those who have excess potential. What we now observe in the West: there is an inevitable destruction of the economy of the leading militant countries of the West (USA, England, France).
  9. ammunition
    ammunition 24 October 2013 09: 08
    +4
    It takes a laugh when you read the "reflections" of foreigners.
    For example, this quote is
    "... The Orthodox revival came at the expense of American missionaries - evangelists and Mormons. It also left an imprint on Russian politics, expressed in its distinctly conservative bias, including the law hated by many against “propaganda of homosexuality”... "
    ------------
    And even foreigners believe that they were able to forever divide the Russian people into Ukrainians, Belarusians and Great Russians (who are called only Russian).
    ----------
    Here is the most modern video. Song. A song in a dialect of the Russian language. If there is at least one Great Russian who says that he noticed something alien to Russian culture in this video, let him throw a stone at me.
    movie -
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VouDm1IiZPE

    The same can be said about any video from Belarus.
    ---------
    So early there they rejoice that there are few Russians. There are more than 200 millions of Russians.
    1. ammunition
      ammunition 24 October 2013 09: 16
      +4
      Here is the same video. And then the link turned out to be inactive. laughing

      1. teleset
        teleset 24 October 2013 17: 20
        +2
        Chic girl, a beautiful song. love
      2. Lesnik
        Lesnik 24 October 2013 23: 34
        0
        I am wildly sorry but the movie is in Ukrainian! Z rydno nenki Ukraine!
        + + + + + +
    2. sasha.28blaga
      sasha.28blaga 24 October 2013 11: 02
      +2
      Eggs are stored in different baskets.
    3. Albert1988
      Albert1988 24 October 2013 17: 47
      +1
      Quote: ammunition
      It takes a laugh when you read the "reflections" of foreigners.
      For example, this quote is
      "... The Orthodox revival was at the expense of American missionaries - evangelicals and Mormons. It also left an imprint on Russian politics, expressed in its distinctly conservative bias, including the hated law against 'propaganda of homosexuality' ..."

      In-in, I completely agree with you! I'm used to reading and hearing a lot of idiocy about Russia from the lips of Americans and Europeans, but I have not heard such nonsense yet))))
  10. HAM
    HAM 24 October 2013 09: 25
    +3
    Really Spring. Bright girl.
  11. shark
    shark 24 October 2013 09: 34
    +4
    "Russia is here for a long time; it will never regain the position that the Soviet Union held in 1980, but it will remain a force for the foreseeable future." - here the author clearly got excited. God willing, we will return, we will also remain in profit. But we really face a number of problems. The main one is the lack of a clearly formed national idea. It is not clear to anyone where we are going, how we are going and with whom. about the Russians the people have not eaten. It is difficult to be a Russian when the majority (Russian) is put in the knowingly oppressed before the nat. minorities, the situation. The government expects from the Russian demographic records, while in every possible way denies the dominant role of Russians in building the Russian state. Who else will build it? Dagestanis or what? Well, they themselves do not know how to work. They still have Russian slaves in brick factories. The government knows, but is silent ... probably afraid of something. And afraid because it has no one to rely on. the Russian people will have to recognize it at least as the titular nation. Oh, how I don’t want to. The second is corruption. The rottenness of leaders and officials at all levels. And this problem stems from the first. But the most important thing is that the Russian people lost their roots, spirituality. I'll tell you One case. I have one familiar priest. I got a parish, began to restore the church. I found sponsorship money, they sent him a team. He comes to the construction site and sees, the work is in full swing, the people are sawing, cooking. In short, the movement is full. And then they pop them and says- "Milki, this will not work. Well, we will restore the church, but what will we eat?" Since then, no more than two people have been working at the facility. Business is not going badly. The people sympathize, here is a devotee, the restoration of the church is dragging on himself. He helps him as much as he can. He gives money. And the priest calls the parishioners "goats. That's it. And this is the main reason for our problems. We did not pass the test of liberal values. We curled and rotted from within.
  12. kostik1301
    kostik1301 24 October 2013 09: 53
    +4
    How did this talk bother about the collapse of Russia, or did the dead decide to test the reaction of the PEOPLE, it was necessary to kill for these ideas .................
  13. pahom54
    pahom54 24 October 2013 10: 18
    +3
    I completely agree with the title of the article, especially since it was written, to put it mildly, by a "not our" person. And what I disagree with is that Russia "will never enter the boundaries of influence of the 1980s" ... Yes, it will not enter those boundaries. but if we talk about expanding its influence on an international scale and increasing its status in other territories, one can argue with the author ... If Russia strengthens at least as fast as it is now, if its both domestic and foreign policies are balanced and rational , then its position in the world will not only change, they MUST CHANGE in a direction favorable for Russia.
    Do not forget that the world is already tired of a chain dog, called the United States, dictating its will to all and sundry ... Russia can play this too ...
    In general, the author even though slightly flipped at Russia (God, almost American missionaries discovered and enlightened it), but in general the article is not without common sense. And there is only one conclusion that Westerners can make: fear and respect Russia, it has not yet been written off from the accounts of world history.
    1. SV
      SV 24 October 2013 20: 46
      0
      BE A REALIST
  14. VohaAhov
    VohaAhov 24 October 2013 10: 19
    +6
    In 1991, we were scared that the population decline in Russia was 1 million per year. The result in 2012 of us Russians was to be about 130 million people. However, this did not happen. And not happen.

    Comrade, believe: she will rise,
    Captivating Star of Happiness,
    Russia will wake up from a dream,
    And on the wreckage of autocracy ...

    (A.S. Pushkin, 1818)
    1. polly
      polly 24 October 2013 15: 09
      +3
      The main thing, as comrade Putin said: "We must not frighten off the emerging growth in the birth rate." laughing
  15. Deniska
    Deniska 24 October 2013 10: 19
    +5
    The Orthodox revival came at the expense of American missionaries - evangelists and Mormons.


    How can it be without you ....

    Russia's population does not include about 7 million Russians abandoned after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the “near abroad,” and now working in Russia as illegal migrants. Another 15 million ethnic Russians live in Belarus, in western Ukraine (so in the text; approx. mixednews.ru) and in Kazakhstan.


    Yes there are polls ETHNIC RUSSIAN !!! Who wrote this nonsense?
    As I wrote in 2008, “Russia is vitally interested in the absorption of Belarus and
    Western Ukraine
    .


    And why do we need Polish litter, and most importantly not a word about EASTERN UKRAINE, where the majority of the ethnic Russians prevail.

    Washington should allow Russia to re-absorb its orphaned provinces, but for your price you get ethnic Russians, and we get your consent on issues that are important to us: strategic defense in Poland and the Czech Republic, assistance with Iran, and so on.


    The thought is correct. The desired result is too hackneyed.

    You can interact with Russia only with the help of force, and America’s power flows through several wounds that it inflicted on itself.


    How stupid they are. Have you tried to be friends ?!
  16. George
    George 24 October 2013 10: 38
    +8
    Hello all.
    It is dangerous for the United States to make plans based on the assumption of Russia's internal collapse

    I’ll draw you the answer David.
    Map of the Siberian district.
    1. sasha.28blaga
      sasha.28blaga 24 October 2013 11: 06
      +2
      What a funny Siberian district.good
  17. HollyGremlin
    HollyGremlin 24 October 2013 10: 51
    +2
    On the one hand, the title is encouraging, and in the text of the article everything is darker than night. What is a demographic hole. Suppose that no person was born in year x, this means that after about 23 years, about 0 people will be born, then after 45 and so on, very slowly blurring, but this does not mean anything for the general dynamics. You can’t fight pits with the help of increasing the birth rate (exaggerating, if 2 people born this year increase the birth rate to 100 per family, this will not eliminate the pit). But the indicator 1.8 per family (it is average and does not depend on the pits) just determines the tendency (unfortunately the decline is still), it is necessary to leave the nose blood at 2.1 (which ensures growth, despite any pits), and parameter 2.5 in a country with positive migration over 60 years, it almost doubles the population (and the pits will remain so). It is necessary to fight for the birth rate not at the bottom of the pit, when there are few who can give birth, but when there are many possible parents!
    1. Avenger711
      Avenger711 24 October 2013 13: 16
      +1
      2.1 It does not provide growth; 2.3 is necessary.
      1. HollyGremlin
        HollyGremlin 24 October 2013 15: 14
        0
        Yes, I admit, I was also a little cunning, 2.1 provide growth, subject to the availability of good health care and social conditions.
    2. Kinza
      Kinza 24 October 2013 18: 01
      +2
      Fight pits with the help of increasing fertility NEEDS (!). This may not eliminate the pit, but it will smooth it out a lot, which will reduce the inter-generational gap, which means it will certainly improve the demographic background, and not by 1-2 percent, but taking into account the total effect, by 10-15 percent, and this is already bread.
      It is necessary to increase the birth rate by additional measures precisely during the years of the demographic pit, as if healing it every time during its return. And still it is necessary to avoid the masses of collectives mainly with the male or mainly female population. And you also need to introduce responsibility for inducing abortion, or promoting childlessness. Solder a fine that way for 5-8 thousand, immediately bite the tongues.
  18. Bober
    Bober 24 October 2013 11: 03
    0
    This is not a nation state, but an empire, the device of which had vices from the very beginning.

    Yeah, I recognize in the makeup of the Immaculate from the very beginning.
  19. Ivanovich47
    Ivanovich47 24 October 2013 11: 08
    +3
    Children will be born - there will be Russia! State policy should be aimed at comprehensive support for the birth rate of the population. Maternity capital must be given for both 3 and 4 children. The process of granting citizenship to our compatriots living in the former republics of the Soviet Union must be extremely simplified. The state must finally turn to face its citizens.
  20. Bober
    Bober 24 October 2013 12: 13
    +1
    This idea was good at the height of the Cold War, but now for a number of reasons it is disgusting. Firstly, radical Islam poses a greater threat to Western interests than Orthodox Russia,

    I inserted such a perfect word Disgustingthat I had a hope for the logical consistency of the author’s narrative speech, which will end with some life-forming principles, for the word itself, as it were, says that it’s enough to pour the blood and incite .... It ended up corny Western Interests. Urine, dew, eyes.
  21. Fastblast
    Fastblast 24 October 2013 12: 17
    +1
    the earth is full of rumors ...

    But with politics, in relation to its citizens, the leadership of the country, something urgently needs to be done!
  22. dimon-media
    dimon-media 24 October 2013 14: 15
    +3
    By the way, a similar dynamics of the birth rate is not only in Russia, but also in Europe and in a new light. Only there, the profit of the population is provided at the expense of migrants from Asia and Africa. Here is such a mess in the world now. Assimilation. Soon the world will cease to be color. It will be monochrome. One has to agree with this, because in reality they give birth to a lot (more than 2 or 3 children) only in the countries of Africa and Asia.
    And Russia, by the way, quietly crawls out of this hole. In some regions there is a positive demographic situation. It is the birth rate that is growing. The curve on the chart crawled into the plus zone.
  23. vlad.svargin
    vlad.svargin 24 October 2013 14: 27
    +1
    the statement of the author of the article "Rumors of the death of Russia is greatly exaggerated" David Goldman in another article << Thus, paranoid analysts (who have long found their niche in the United States and in the West in general), continuing to yell at Russia, through "I do not want" admit that American approaches are not favored, but the Kremlin is doing well on the world stage. One by one, the publicists believe that the West should continue yapping, much as it yapped during the Cold War (which the authors clearly recall with nostalgia), although yapping has less money and less political opportunity. Even the UN Security Council was already in the hands of the Russians ("Successful strategy of Russia and the geopolitical fiasco of the West". Oleg Chuvakin) >>

    Let his article be delusional in places, but the "confusion" of the West is pleasant. And regarding the "demographic hole" in Russia, only the government of national trust, consisting of real patriots, can "pull us out" of this hole (Without such as DAM) Not only maternity capital is important, but also the restoration of our industry, so that there is work the head of the family; providing young families with a preferential loan for the purchase of apartments, which are written off with the birth of a child; and with the birth of the 3rd, the entire amount is debited.
    (a good example in Belarus for young families)
  24. serge
    serge 24 October 2013 15: 24
    +7
    "... Russians are chess players, and chess is a game in which you cannot bluff."
    --------
    Curious quote. If you reverse it, it turns out that the Americans are gamblers and card crooks.
  25. 528Obrp
    528Obrp 24 October 2013 15: 28
    +1
    Sorry, a bit off topic, but very interesting. The reaction of the States to our "NPO" from them http://www.newsarmenia.ru/politics/20131024/42965139.html
  26. cormorant
    cormorant 24 October 2013 16: 12
    +2
    "The Orthodox revival was at the expense of American missionaries - evangelicals and Mormons."

    The complete nonsense! Mormons are a sect that has nothing to do with religion. Demons in one word.

    These are the Mormons:
    "... The opinion is spreading more and more that behind these cataclysms there is a carefully covert secret society - the Order of the Illuminati. Who are the Illuminati? Mormons are sure that these are the descendants of aliens. But the aliens are not from the cosmic depths, but from a parallel world. And the descendants are not people , but ... intelligent reptiles. The history of the Illuminati Order has 6000 years - since the otherworldly forces handed the stone Book of power to the ancient Sumerian priests. For millennia, the Order included the best minds of mankind. Reptiles themselves have long been assimilated among people, their DNA is no different from ours, but there is a noticeable difference in the frequency field of DNA. This feature of the frequency field helps the Illuminati find each other. Entering the bond of marriage, humanized reptoids form whole clans with a long history. It is believed that these include Dupons, Rockefellers, Rothschilds, Onassis Some historians believe that the very creation of a superpower - the USA - was the work of luminates. The Illuminati's symbol - the all-seeing eye - can be seen on the one dollar bill. It is located above the luminous pyramid, which also symbolizes the power of the descendants of the reptiles. The inscription under the pyramid Novus ordo seclorurn translates as "New World Order" ... What are the Illuminati trying to achieve? World domination through the creation of a single world government. Therefore, their immediate goals are the complete erasure of the national identity of citizens of all countries of the world, the destruction of religions, the spread of terrorism, the creation of a world economic crisis, subversive activities aimed at destroying the sovereignty of states. "
  27. i-gor63
    i-gor63 24 October 2013 16: 20
    +3
    "You can interact with Russia only by force," says the author. A bit wrong. “Russia loves to play chess,” the author says again, and chess is a game of intellectuals. Therefore, in my opinion, it is better to interact with Russia only with the help of the mind, and the Americans lack it.
  28. velikoros-xnumx
    velikoros-xnumx 24 October 2013 16: 26
    0
    Washington never really understood that Russians are chess players

    I wish this was true, but alas, the Russians always defended someone's (mostly Anglo-Saxon) interests around the world with their sides. Unfortunately, most of its history, Russia participated in political chess only as a figure, not a player. This is sad, I want to believe that we will get out of this vicious circle.
    You can interact with Russia only by force.

    The most unpromising scenario. For almost nothing good, he did not end.
  29. kaktus
    kaktus 24 October 2013 16: 30
    0
    "Rumors are greatly exaggerated"

    "like flies here and there,
    rumors go home
    and crazy old women
    they are carried to minds ... " tongue
    type Vysotsky
  30. George Siberia
    George Siberia 24 October 2013 17: 02
    0
    An increase in the birth rate at the current rate of degradation of culture and education (one USE is worth it!) Will not solve any of the problems - Russia's global challenges ..
    A degrading Russia against the backdrop of technologically and industrially growing China .. A degraded population thinks less, asks less uncomfortable questions .. Such a population is needed by oligarchs who pump all its juices from Russia ..

    While maintaining the current state of things, property relations, monetarist approaches in the economy, Russia's loss of its statehood is inevitable in the shortest time (by some estimates - 4-7 years), with all the ensuing consequences (millions of victims, famine, etc.) . And Deripaska, Abramovich, Friedman and other compradors will watch this from a safe place ..
  31. VohaAhov
    VohaAhov 24 October 2013 17: 13
    +1
    Quote: sasha.28blaga
    What a funny Siberian district.good

    Yes, funny. As if spitting in the direction of America.
  32. homosum20
    homosum20 24 October 2013 17: 53
    +1
    Mark Twain: "... the rumors of my death are greatly exaggerated ..."
    Egypt is about 5 thousand years old (confirmed by archaeological finds). The state of China is 3 thousand years old (documented). The us state is 300 years old.
  33. Zloycat
    Zloycat 24 October 2013 18: 41
    -5
    You are all funny. "Rumors about the death of Russia are greatly exaggerated." On the contrary, they are greatly underestimated. Who owns Russia? Oligarchs. Do you naive think that their goal is the country's prosperity? Yes, they will squeeze all the juices out of the country to the last drop and go over the hill. So, forget about Russia and the future, there are none. Amen.
    1. A. Yaga
      A. Yaga 24 October 2013 21: 16
      +3
      Quote: Zloycat
      Who owns Russia? The oligarchs.

      Does not own! A parasitic! It is treatable if treated.
    2. poquello
      poquello 24 October 2013 22: 26
      +2
      Quote: Zloycat
      You are all funny. "Rumors about the death of Russia are greatly exaggerated." On the contrary, they are greatly underestimated. Who owns Russia? Oligarchs. Do you naive think that their goal is the country's prosperity? Yes, they will squeeze all the juices out of the country to the last drop and go over the hill. So, forget about Russia and the future, there are none. Amen.

      Squeezed - this is just in the United States, shale gas from the earth.
      1. Thunderbolt
        Thunderbolt 24 October 2013 22: 51
        0
        Quote: poquello
        Squeezed - this is just in the United States, shale gas from the earth.
        But are you an advocate of taking N. and G. from the pipe? The bankruptcy of America did not take place, the two branches managed to come to an agreement and now it’s rattling away from those who want to invest in the Bank of the Americas, Oh belay do not bother to find out how much our "heritage" rolled into the AMERICAN debt. liabilities.And imagine that the price of oil is not 100 gross, but 85, which is super probable, with the reverse of Iran (which will flood Europe with nothing, etc. WARNING No --- PRICE is not growing, and demand due to the created world trend --- FALLS (prove it if it's not like that: tong, ue :) Well, where are we tapericha, in Sochi? It's a good place to cool off pussy, but not for the country, you know which one, and how many years the battle lasted.
        1. poquello
          poquello 25 October 2013 01: 41
          +1
          Quote: Thunderbolt
          Quote: poquello
          Squeezed - this is just in the United States, shale gas from the earth.
          But are you an advocate of taking N. and G. from the pipe? The bankruptcy of America did not take place, the two branches managed to come to an agreement and now it’s rattling away from those who want to invest in the Bank of the Americas, Oh belay do not bother to find out how much our "heritage" rolled into the AMERICAN debt. liabilities.And imagine that the price of oil is not 100 gross, but 85, which is super probable, with the reverse of Iran (which will flood Europe with nothing, etc. WARNING No --- PRICE is not growing, and demand due to the created world trend --- FALLS (prove it if it's not like that: tong, ue :) Well, where are we tapericha, in Sochi? It's a good place to cool off pussy, but not for the country, you know which one, and how many years the battle lasted.

          Yes, I’m not even a champion, I don’t consider any other option for Russia so far, it’s enough in the pipe, except there’s nothing more to do with getting the raw materials on a ski hammock. I didn’t catch the thought of the bankcamera, if it’s the first time about those who wish in the world? the people in Mavrodi are now ready to invest. I didn’t understand further, do you want to say that at 85 a barrel Russia will be bent?
    3. them
      them 24 October 2013 22: 29
      +1
      Different funeral services have already been performed many times. However, we stand and make quite serious guys reckon with us. And many do not even remember the funeral service, and those who are alive do not get tired of apologizing (Germans) or drooling powerlessly (Poland) or have turned from great empires into entertainments for tourists (Turkey). Who is next? What optimism over the edge? I agree, but on that we stand. And you are right about the oligarchs, but only abroad has not saved anyone, if only to the moon ...
  34. komissar
    komissar 24 October 2013 18: 43
    +3
    "You can interact with Russia only by force"
    It’s impossible to come up with anything more stupid. From a position of strength, only kamikaze can interact with Russia
  35. Cherdak
    Cherdak 24 October 2013 19: 52
    +2
    Times pass, and the western essence does not change. Either the English woman spoils, the frogmen jump, the sausages are sausage, and recently cheeseburgers are inflated. And everyone strives to start with some dirty trick about Russia ...
  36. Corsair5912
    Corsair5912 24 October 2013 20: 18
    +4
    After the decline of communism in 1991, Washington repeatedly underestimates Russia

    Communism could not end because it never existed. The construction of socialism was stopped by Khrushchev, who replaced wage labor (the basic condition of socialism) with equalization.
    Russia has been in crisis since the time when Peter the Great built modern Russia with one foot in Siberia and the other in Eastern Europe. This is not a nation state, but an empire, the device of which had vices from the very beginning. Russia has always taxed European provinces to maintain non-economic expansion into its Far East. This policy ended in failure between the 1905 war of the year with Japan and the 1914-1918 war. with Germany.

    Russia was built not by Peter 1, but by Ivan the Terrible, her legs were in place and she was a national state of Russians whose number was more than 60% even when it included Poland, Finland, Central Asia and Kazakhstan. Russia's policy in the East did not fail, in 1905, Japan was defeated, an unsuccessful peace was the result of the incompetence of the tsarist government.
    Siberia's contribution to the Russian economy has been enormous since the beginning of its development by Novgorod the Great in the 8-9 century, at the beginning there was furs, in the 15-16 century iron and copper ores were added.
    The Russian leadership is conducting a tough campaign against Islamic radicalism, hoping that overwhelming superiority in forces will make it possible to pacify the restless republics of the country.

    The Russian leadership does not conduct any campaign against Islamic radicalism, neither hard nor soft. Wahhabis live quite freely in Moscow and in other cities of the Russian Federation and openly engage in Russophobic propaganda.
    As soon as America lost its resolve to use force in relation to Iran’s nuclear program, other problems in the region, especially the Syrian one, were not approached, which gives Russia a chance to creep in as a regional mediator.
    It is dangerous for the United States to make plans based on the assumption of Russia's internal collapse. Such a result cannot be ruled out, but it is unlikely. Russia is here for a long time; she will never regain the positions that the Soviet Union occupied in 1980, but will remain a force in the foreseeable future.

    The Yusovites are too tough for Iran, which has the support of Russia, and it is unlikely that they will fight with Iran for the interests of Israel.
    Russia does not have to climb anywhere; it has retained all its ties and strong positions in Asia.
    The USSR is Russia at 80%, it can be seen even without a microscope.
    Russia's weakness is not in the loss of republics, but in the liberal pro-American government.
  37. Patriot_1
    Patriot_1 24 October 2013 21: 57
    +3
    Enough about politics, well, the girl on the video is right, she sang to her native painfully ... just charming! And do not forget, how rich is the RUSSIAN language, and how poor is the language of the Anglo-Saxons with the Germans. Russia will win!
  38. Bashkaus
    Bashkaus 24 October 2013 21: 57
    +3
    oh, I didn’t read nudity, the guard, everything was gone, women of childbearing age became less and wakes up at the end. And where is the human factor, where is faith in the bright distance?
    Why is this factor not taken into account, maybe I was horrified now and realized that my wife and I need to give birth to more children, where is the guarantee that you - the reader of my commentary will not think about "but figly, really, I will not feed because I'm not a man?" that I can provide a "European standard of living" and I will have to choose between a child or the opportunity to change a five-year-old car for a new one. My parents in the 50s and no one then thought "why breed poverty", gave birth to LIVE! And nothing that was toys, and my father put raw potatoes in a row and played pretending that it was a steam locomotive.This did not prevent him from graduating from high school and the military academy with gold medals, becoming a colonel, a professor and getting a bunch of similar regalia.
    Russians always gave birth and lived, lived in friendly families, where the brothers wore each other's clothes when they grew out of it.
    Of course, if for each child to buy a new stroller, crib, etc. supporting the philosophy of consumption, after 100 years, there’s nothing left, not only from Russia, but from the whole world. But the future depends on us ...
  39. poquello
    poquello 24 October 2013 22: 40
    +4
    I don't understand amerodyatlov, we are not at war with them, we are not fighting, but they are jumping around us "cues" shouting, trying to hit, strive to shit. After all, if we stick into a melon, they will fall, and this is not about the war.