8 July, the pro-government Chinese newspaper Wenweipo published an article entitled “6 Wars in which China should participate in the next 50 years”.
The planned 6 wars are all for their own purposes unifying (irredentist) - in their root, the development of those territories that imperial China lost as a result of the opium war with Britain in the 1840-42 years. Defeats, from the point of view of the Chinese nationalists, which led to the “centenary humiliation” of China.
The English translation was taken from the Hong Kong blog Midnight Express 2046, the original article is ChinaNews.com. The Hong Kong resource calls the article an excellent example of modern Chinese imperialism.
China is not a single great power. This is the humiliation of the Chinese people, the shame of the sons of the Yellow Emperor. For the sake of national unity and dignity, China must wage 6 wars in the next 50 years. Some regional, others, possibly total. No matter what, they are all inevitable for Chinese reunification.
WAR ONE: ASSOCIATION WITH TAIWAN (YEARS 2020 - 2025)
May we be content with peace on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, we should not dream of a peaceful union with the Taiwanese administration (whether the Chinese Nationalist Party or the Democratic Progressive led by Taiwan). Peaceful union does not meet their interests in the elections. Their position is to maintain the status quo (desirable for both parties, each of which receives its own trump cards). For Taiwan, “independence” is more talk, than a formal statement, and “unification” is a problem for negotiations, but not real action. The current situation in Taiwan is a source of alarm for China, because so anyone can try to bargain for something from China.
China must develop a strategy for unification with Taiwan over the next 10 years, by 2020.
Then China should send an ultimatum to Taiwan, demanding from them to choose between peaceful unification (the preferred epilogue for China) or war (a necessary measure) for the 2025 year. Intending to unite, China must prepare everything three years in advance. When the time comes, the Chinese government will simply be able to choose one or another option to finally solve the problem.
Analyzing the current situation, we should expect that Taiwan will take a disobedient position and the military outcome will be the only solution. This unification war will be the first in the meaning of modern warfare for “New China”. These hostilities will be a test for the People’s Liberation Army in modern warfare. China can win this war easily or everything can be harder. Everything will depend on the level of intervention of the United States and Japan. The United States and Japan may assist Taiwan or even launch an offensive on the territory of the Chinese mainland, the war runs the risk of dragging out and becoming total.
On the other hand, if the United States and Japan are just watching, China will easily win. In this case, Beijing will control Taiwan for three months. Even if Japan and America intervene at this stage, the war will end within 6 months.
SECOND WAR: THE RETURN OF ISLANDS (YEARS 2025-2030)
After uniting with Taiwan, China will take a breather on 2 of the year. During the recovery period, China will send an ultimatum to the countries surrounding the Spartly Islands, which expires in 2028. Countries challenging the sovereignty of the islands may discuss with China the preservation of the share of investment in these islands, but must remove their territorial claims. If this does not happen, China will declare war on them, their investments and economic benefits will be appropriated by China.
Today, the countries of Southeast Asia are already shaking from the prospect of unification with Taiwan.
On the one hand, they will sit at the negotiating table, on the other hand, they will not want to surrender their interests on the islands. Thus, they will take a waiting position and will postpone the final decision. They will not make this decision until China resorts to decisive action.
At the same time, the USA will not just sit and watch as China “re-conquers” the islands. As mentioned above, in the part about Taiwan, then the US may be too late to intervene in the conflict or simply be unable to stop China, unifying Taiwan. This should teach the US not to conflict too openly with China.
However, the US will continue to help countries in Southeast Asia, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, covertly. These are precisely those 2 countries surrounding the South China Sea that dare to challenge China’s domination. And yet, they will think twice before going to war with China, unless they fail the negotiations and are confident in the US military support.
The best way out for China is to attack Vietnam, since Vietnam is the strongest force in the region. The victory over Vietnam intimidates the rest. As long as the war goes on, other countries will not do anything. If Vietnam loses, the islands will be given back to China. If on the contrary, they will declare war on him.
Of course, China will crush Vietnam and reclaim all the islands. When Vietnam loses the war and loses all the islands, other countries, frightened by the Chinese might, but still greedy for their benefits, will negotiate the return of the islands and declare loyalty to China. Thus, China will be able to build ports and deploy troops on the islands, spreading influence in the Pacific Ocean.
Before that, China had achieved a complete breakthrough on the first chain of islands and penetrated into the second, Chinese aircraft carriers now have free access to the Pacific Ocean to protect the interests of the country.
WAR THREE: THE RETURN OF SOUTH TIBET (2035-2040 YEARS)
China and India have a long border, but the only point of conflict between them is part of the territory of Southern Tibet.
China has long been an imaginary enemy of India.
India’s military goal is to surpass China. India seeks to achieve this by developing itself and through the purchase of the most advanced military equipment from the USA, Russia and Europe, seeks to catch up with China in economic and military development.
In India, the official and media positions are friendly to Russia, the United States and Europe, but repulsive or even hostile to China. This leads to the insolubility of conflicts with China.
On the other hand, India greatly appreciates help from the United States, Russia and Europe, believing that it will be able to defeat China in wars, which is the cause of lengthy territorial disputes.
After 20 years, India will lag behind China in military power, but will remain one of several great powers. If China tries to conquer Southern Tibet, it will lead to certain losses.
In my opinion, the best strategy for China is incitement to the disintegration of India. Dividing India into parts, it will have no opportunity to cope with China.
Of course, this plan may fail. But China must do everything possible to incite the provinces of Assam and Sikkim to gain independence in order to weaken India. This is the best strategy.
The second part of the strategy is to export the most advanced weapons to Pakistan to conquer Southern Kashmir and unite by the 2035 year. While India and Pakistan will be busy with each other, China must launch a lightning attack on South Tibet occupied by India. India will not be able to fight on two fronts, and, I think, will be defeated on both. If this plan is not adopted, the worst option remains, direct hostilities for the return of Southern Tibet.
At the end of the first two wars, China gained 10 years of strength and became a world power in terms of economic and military development. Only the United States and Europe (if it becomes a single country, if not, then Russia will take the place. But from my point of view, European integration is quite possible) will be on the list of world powers who can cope with China.
After the return of Taiwan and the Spartly Islands, China will make a big step in the development of its army, air force, navy, and space military forces. China will be one of the most powerful military powers, second only to the United States. So India will lose.
THE WAR FOURTH: THE RETURN OF THE ISLANDS OF DYOUYUDAO (SENKAKU) AND RUCK (YEARS 2040 - 2045)
In the middle of the 21 century, China acts as a world power, amid the decline of Japan and Russia, the stagnation of the USA and India, the rise of central Europe. This will be the best time to pick up the Diaoyu Islands and the Ryukyu Islands.
Many people know that Diaoyu are Chinese islands from ancient times, but they do not know that the Japanese annexed the Ryukyu Island (now Okinawa, with a US military base). The Japanese are misleading the Chinese society and government when they raise questions about the East China Sea, for example, the “middle line” established by the Japanese, or the “Okinawa question” implying that Ryukyu Islands are originally Japanese.
How shameful this ignorance is! Judging by historical records of China, Ryukyu and other countries, including Japan, Ryukyu are islands subordinate to China since ancient times, which means that the islands belong to China. In this case, is the “middle line” drawn by Japan justified? Does Japan really care about the East Sea?
Japan has deprived us of wealth and resources in the East China Sea and has illegally occupied the islands of Diaoyu and Ryukyu for many years. The time will come and they will have to pay. By that time, it should be expected that the US can intervene, but will be weakened, Europe will be silent, and Russia will sit and watch. The war may end in six months with an overwhelming victory for China. Japan will have no choice but to return the islands of Diaoyu and Ryukyu to China. The East China Sea will become China’s inland lake. Who dares to touch him?
WAR FIVE: UNIFICATION OF EXTERNAL MONGOLIA (YEARS 2045-2050)
Although today there are supporters of unification by Outer Mongolia, is this idea realistic? These unrealistic guys are just fooling themselves, making a mistake in strategic thinking. Now is not the time for the great cause of the unification of Outer Mongolia.
China should select the groups that advocate unification, help them reach important posts in their government and proclaim the unification of Outer Mongolia to the vital interest of China after the settlement of the issue with Southern Tibet to 2040.
If Outer Mongolia can be united peacefully, it will be the best outcome for China. But if China meets with external resistance, one should be ready for military action. In this case, a model with Taiwan is useful: the presentation of an ultimatum to the 2045 year. Give Outer Mongolia a few years, in case of failure to resort to force.
By this time, the four previous wars were over. China has military, political and diplomatic power to unify Outer Mongolia. The weakened US and Russia dare not go further than diplomatic protests. Europe will have a vague position, India and Central Asia will be silent. After unification, China can dominate in Outer Mongolia for three years, after the unification is completed, it will deploy serious military forces there at the border to control Russia. China will need 10 years to build conventional and military infrastructure to challenge territorial losses from Russia.
THE SIXTH WAR: THE RETURN OF THE EARTH FROM RUSSIA (YEARS 2055 - 2060)
The current relations between China and Russia would seem to be good, but this is a result of the fact that the United States does not leave them any other choice.
Both countries are closely monitored by each other. Russia fears that the rise of China threatens its power, but China has never forgotten the possessions lost in favor of Russia. When the case turns up, China will return all the lost territories.
After five previous victories for 2050, China will make territorial claims based on the domain of ownership (domain) of the Qin Dynasty (as an association of Outer Mongolia based on the domain of the Republic of China) and will conduct propaganda campaigns in support of such claims. Efforts must be made to ensure that Russia disintegrates again.
At the time of “Old China”, Russia occupied 1,6 million square kilometers of land, which is equal to one sixth of the territory of the current domain of China. Thus, Russia is China's worst enemy.
After winning the previous five wars - it's time to get Russia to pay.
This must lead to a war with Russia. Although by this time China is the foremost military power in the area aviation, Navy, ground and space forces, this is the first war against a nuclear power. Therefore, China must be well trained in nuclear weapons, the possibility of a nuclear strike on Russia from the beginning to the end of the conflict.
When China deprives Russia of the possibility of a retaliatory strike, Russia realizes that it cannot with China on the battlefield.
They will only have to give up their occupied lands, paying a high price for their invasions.