Ilan Berman wrote a book, on the pages of which he outlined the scenario for the development of Russia. Warning: not a forecast, not a prediction of collapse, but a scenario. This is an important clarification, because scripts, unlike predictions: 1) are written for someone; 2) implies staging.
Mr. Berman’s study is entitled “Internal Explosion. The end of Russia: what does it mean for America. ” The analyst shares with the world public his vision of what will be done with Russia by 2040. Recently reporter "Voices of America" Alex Grigoriev, specializing in international relations, defense, security, intelligence, etc., interviewed Mr. Berman. It turned out very exciting. So, what did the vice president of the American Council on Foreign Policy say to a journalist?
The interview is preceded by a quote from Berman's book:
“Decades of population decline and social problems have destroyed the once mighty Russian state, which has become its own shadow. On the domestic arena, the country is facing massive social shifts. Slavs, whose numbers are decreasing and nationalism is increasing, are waging a Cold War with a growing and radicalizing Muslim population. In the republics, the majority of whose population are Muslims, separatist sentiments are gaining strength. <…> In desperate attempts to restore order, the Russian government has resorted to constant and massive repression not seen since Soviet times. These repressions, however, only radicalize the opponents of the government and isolate Russia from the West. "
Everything, in general, familiar, typical. They remembered the Soviet times, repressions, the former Soviet republics, isolation from the West ...
According to the scenario of Mr. Berman, notes A. Grigoriev, in 2040, China will actually manage the Russian Far East. Cowering Russia will try to restore power on the post-Soviet territory, “absorbing” Belarus and starting a war with Ukraine - and not only with it.
The collapse of Russia, according to Berman, voiced in an interview, will be caused by three main reasons, three “trends”:
1. Demographic problem. The decrease in the population of Russia.
2. The increase in the number of Russian Muslims and their radicalization.
3. Problems in the Far East, where China begins to dominate.
All three processes occur simultaneously. Their roots are in the present tense, not in the future. That is, all this is already going on and on. The mentioned simultaneity allowed the analyst to make sad conclusions about the Russian future. In order to strengthen himself in his own scenario, the expert highlighted a “crucial moment”: the current government is not ready to deal with the problems described.
The analyst believes that the government created by Putin is responsible "solely for himself." At the same time, it “inadequately” responds to the challenges the country faces. It is so “inadequate” that in other cases the government “does not even suspect” of the existence of threats.
A. Grigoriev asked the interviewee a legitimate question: “However, public opinion polls demonstrate that President Putin enjoys high popularity among Russians, and the government allocates substantial funds to the same Far East and North Caucasus. Why is Russian power ineffective? ”
It turns out, Berman noted, that one should distinguish between "tactical satisfaction" and "long-term approval" of the actions of the Russian authorities.
In fact, Berman does not believe in the first or the second.
He cites data from the March poll of the Levada Center, according to which Putin’s popularity was about 34%. This is disastrous in a democracy, says the analyst. And here is about the “long-term approval”, that is, disapproval:
“What is happening today? A popular idea is that Russia dominates the international arena thanks to actions on the Syrian and Iranian tracks. In politics, always love winners. However, in the long run, the promises of the Russian authorities about investments in infrastructure projects and the development of the Far East are one thing, but the practical implementation of these promises is completely different. There have been a lot of promises, but very little strategic investment. To succeed, Russia needs serious investments in infrastructure, health care, social services and other areas that would allow to stop the demographic crisis. ”
As for external threats, the expert highlighted “jihadism”, noting that this is also an internal problem of the country. Many foreign organizations like Al-Qaeda and Hizb-ut-Tahrir, he noted, are represented in Russia. The expert points out that “very little time is left before the Olympics in Sochi”.
And here about the Chinese:
“At the other end of the country is the Chinese problem. This problem is not only political, but also territorial. Russia and China have been competing for these lands for hundreds of years. The boundary was finally established only in 2001. But this is only a temporary agreement, since it expires in 2021. Why did this happen? Because at the time of the signing of this treaty, China knew that in 20-30 years the demographic situation in the region would change significantly, and it would be able to reconsider the terms of the agreement. And China is right, because now the number of the Russian population of the Far East is minimal and continues to decline. As a result, the colossal and richest region capable of securing the future of Russia is increasingly suffering from a lack of labor. China is increasingly providing labor. ”
Further, the author of the book gives Russia, as they say, a chance.
“... There is nothing definite in the future. It is quite possible that Russia will not only be able to reverse these negative processes, but will also be in a relatively good position. ”
And then Berman relies on structural problems in Russia. He lists what Russia is spending money on today: strategic nuclear weapons and army rearmament. But what does she do to counter the "silent catastrophes" inside the country? Virtually nothing, says the author of the study.
What will Russia do when implementing a negative scenario?
It is quite possible, the analyst answers, that the crisis will spill out of the country. As Russia loses its position in the Far East, it may try to gain a foothold in the West. It will intensify efforts to restore the former empire, because it was “personally Vladimir Putin called the goal of his government.”
Andrey Ivanov ("Free press") talked on the theme of the script Berman with experts.
According to the director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies, Valery Korovin, the book of the American aims not only to predict the future, how to form it:
“The forecast of the AFPC Vice-President fully fits into the post-positivist approach of the Americans. Previous decades, after the conference in Yalta, foreign policy was built in the framework of positivist schools, the main directions of which were realism and liberalism. With the entrance to the general use of postmodernist movements, post-positivism became more widespread. This is when the idea or model of the situation is in priority over the events that have a place to be in reality. Realism is based on objective data. Post-positivism puts the idea at the forefront, then a reorganization project appears, and then reality is adapted to the project. ”
The forecast of Berman, the expert notes, is made on the basis of the fact that Russia should cease to exist as a geopolitical entity. Based on this thesis, scenarios are developed on how the idea should be implemented. Scenarios are built on existing premises. And this is how the production takes place:
“Initially, a report is issued, then it becomes the property of political structures around the world, which detail it, taking into account the specifics of the regions. At the next level, detailed models should pick up the media as a given, in order to accustom the public, including political elites, to the fact that these scenarios are inevitable. As a result, the developed models form the basis of state decision making ... "
V. Korovin also notes that postpositivistic models work in environments that are significantly immersed in the postmodern - into networked societies of atomized citizens. Americans did not succeed in Iran or Belarus, because there is a modern society, there is no suitable environment, but post-positivism has shown good results in archaeomodern countries - where society is half archaic, and half integrated into the global context. Russia considers the director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies to be just such a country. Scripts written in the USA work well in Russia. They, the analyst says, can be carried away by the elites oriented toward the West, and then the models will be broadcast through the liberal media. And government officials will make decisions according to these scenarios.
Regarding Russia, the situation is aggravated by the fact that "today there is no answer at all to the question of why we need a state at all." And the West has an idea, the expert believes. The West is implementing a postmodern project to build a global networked control system based on the individual as a measure of all things, reducing everything to the material. The result: Russia, which has no project of its own, is actually built into the western project.
Andrei Savelyev, a doctor of political sciences, however, finds his own project from Russia. He describes the current Russian situation as follows:
“The ruling group in Russia, uneducated, not understanding what a big style and big project is, look to the future only for the period of its physical existence. Therefore, nothing can be expected from them. But in Russian literature, in Russian philosophy there is a big project. He continues the previous one, just at the present stage. Russia in general can be the savior of European civilization if the big project is in the hands of the ruling elite. Of course, not the present, but the future. ”
What is this Russian project?
“Everything has long been formulated. Take the "New Middle Ages" by Nikolai Berdyaev - this is already a finished project. There are a number of modern writings. I personally wrote the "Manifesto of the revival of Russia." A thick volume called Russian Doctrine was released. Everything is written down to the smallest details. There is no only political force that embodies all this. ”
Portal Browser KM.ru Victor Martyniuk talked with the Secretary of the Central Council of the Party "Motherland: Common Sense" Maxim Kalashnikov. It turned out that what the American analyst is talking about has been spoken in Russia for a long time.
“... In fact, he did not say anything new or unexpected. The fact is that Russia is no longer there: it collapsed in the 1991 year. The Soviet Union was Russia. Now there is a fading and declining Russian Federation. Both demographically and infrastructurally we are going to the end ... "
And the government realizes that it is a matter of seams:
“And the power itself sometimes speaks out, showing that it has an understanding of the real situation. They tell us about the birth rate growth, but I don’t see three children in each Russian family. Meanwhile, demographers calculated that in order to correct the situation with the current demographic failure, it is necessary that for every woman there would be no less than 2,65 children in general, and even then a positive effect can be observed only after more than twenty years. Meanwhile, even according to official data, the birth rate is 1,7 or 1,8 per child per woman, and this includes the non-Russian population, migrants ... "
The Eurasian Union is an imitation, says the publicist.
“But are we building the Eurasian Union ?! Where did you see it? So far, I personally see that with Belarus we have not been able to establish a full-fledged integration, Ukraine at this stage and completely lost. What kind of union is it? About the one that is “created” by imitation of vigorous activity? At a minimum, it is necessary to unite the three union republics - the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Belarus; next in line is Kazakhstan. And what we see now is just an attempt to create something amorphous, and with the Central Asian republics. But all this will not save Russia from a demographic collapse. ”
So, it should be noted: if Soviet Russia had an ideological basis that set certain guidelines for development, then the authorities at the helm of the last decades have no ideology other than privatization-capitalist (that is, the very western one, which has been irreversible destruction of the entire Soviet), and there can not be. In the absence of their own ideology, it remains to borrow from the West and imitate the West, copying everything from it: from the form of parliament to plastic tableware. There are two outcomes: either continue to sail in the fairway of the West, solving their problems using completely Western methods and not being ashamed of their secondary nature and subordination, or find and stake out their place in stories - This is where Western scenarios seem really ridiculous and unrealistic, and the forecasts are ridiculous-fantastic. But the current political elite is not able to make such a sharp turn. It remains to hope for the elite from the beautiful far away ...
Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
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