Analytical program “However” with Mikhail Leontyev, February 22 2011
Unprecedented in the newest stories a fire in a huge region, almost from Morocco to Pakistan. These are no longer separate mines. Tears from different ends, like a powder warehouse. Let me remind you that this particular region was declared the object of democratization. Here it is, finally, the democratization has come! Back in 2006, however, the "However" showed some kind of map developed by the ideologists of the "new Middle East".
Here, in fact, our story of that year was 2006: "Back in June in the United States under the characteristic title" Never get out of the fight, "the book of influential military expert and publicist Ralph Peters was published. The map of the" desirable configuration "of the Middle East includes a fundamental change in the boundaries of almost all existing there states, the formation of new states of Kurdistan, Balochistan, the complete dismemberment of Iraq, and, most interestingly, a radical detriment of such traditional US allies as Turkey and Pakistan, and the practical destruction of Saudi Arabia. "
This plan is a direct provocation of war, the undermining of the region. Well, well, what exploded in the wrong place and in such a way that the “controlled chaos” in front of our eyes turns into uncontrollable and what, that the current administration can no longer manage the alien chaos? But you can lead it!
"All Middle Eastern regimes should learn the Egyptian lesson: strength alone is not enough to keep people in obedience, democracy is necessary," said US President Barack Obama.
The truth is that there will be no "democratization" in the region. Under any options. And the real options are as follows: either the revolt will be crushed by one-time sadistic bleedings in the style of Gaddafi, or the entire region will be drowned in blood and chaos. The choice is small: a terrible end or endless horror. Given that the Arab street clearly chooses an endless horror. And the world market logically reflects this in the dynamics of oil prices.
Since the beginning of unrest in the region, the price of Brent European oil has risen from 75 to 108 dollars per barrel. At the same time, the American WTA fell in price until the last events in Libya, and only after that it grew to 87 dollars per barrel. At the same time, the difference between the price of the “European” and “American” barrel has been fluctuating between 15-20 percent lately.
Which, by the way, has never been before. At the same time, the American Texan Light Suite is significantly better than the European one. The price of gas in America has long been more than two times lower than European and continues to fall. What is this? And the fact that America is less in need of foreign hydrocarbons.
America can no longer control the Middle East and the Arab world. It remains to leave, igniting the oil in the literal and figurative sense. While Arab oil is burning, world prices for hydrocarbons, as well as problems for all American competitors, will reach transcendental heights. This will further accelerate the development of unconventional hydrocarbons, in which America is already the undisputed leader.
After that, these prices will collapse sharply and forever. That is, the option of uncontrollable chaos brings death and destruction to the Arabs, America - the opportunity to get out of the deepest crisis. For Russia, this is both a direct threat and an additional chance: the last gift of the oil economy.