Russia plus China minus America
Controversial the news on the burning topic of China and Russia in recent days, the media have become full. Some analysts, including those with professorships, are sure that after twenty years China will become so powerful that Russia and the United States will create a strategic alliance against it. Other experts, including those from the IMF, claim that both China and Russia have already exhausted their model of economic growth. Still others believe that the Chinese and Russian trend is just growth. Fourth are sure: not America, but China and Russia today are creating an alliance whose goal is to control the Asia-Pacific region. So controversialstory of the future ”, as the writer Wilson would put it, leads to certain reflections, the main of which are the components of Beijing and Moscow. But the United States, it seems, will be bracketed ... It’s not for nothing that China turned out to be the dominant force at the APEC summit, and Xi Jinping didn’t even deign to mention Barack Obama in the keynote speech.In a recent review of Western newspapers from "Foreign Press" The arguments of the Le Figaro correspondent Arno Rodier were cited. He believes that China’s President Xi Jinping became the “summit star”. And this is what Comrade Si said: "China cannot develop in isolation from the Asia-Pacific region, and the countries of the region cannot flourish without China."
This, we add, is nothing more than a clear bid for leadership.
"The New York Times" gives a little softer material. “Obama’s absence has made China the dominant force at the APEC summit,” the newspaper writes.
Meanwhile, Xi Jinping delivered a keynote speech on the economic reorganization of China and the importance of the Asia-Pacific partnership for this country, and Obama was not even mentioned.
Obama was going to use the summit to stimulate negotiations on the Transpacific Partnership, but Obama did not have the money to fly to the summit. The White House administration hoped that South Korea would announce Seoul’s readiness to enter into negotiations, but expectations were not met. "Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak also undermined hopes for a trade agreement," the publication points out.
Sad news for the US, note. As a result, the crisis in the United States in a geopolitical sense is in the hands of China.
However, there is also a sense of economic, which is ahead of geopolitical, and not the other way around. In China, they are not at all happy that in a week or two the United States, represented by the Secretary of the Treasury, can declare a “default” - that is, the inability of the state to repay debts, including foreign ones.
China is the main American lender. In the Middle Kingdom, according to the Associated Press, it is almost 23% of US government debt. And the other day the Chinese officially asked the Americans to do without a default.
"China, the largest US lender, naturally, is concerned about the American fiscal cliff," - quotes the channel "RT" Deputy Minister of Finance of the PRC Zhu Guangzhao.
In the meantime, cooperation between China and the Russian Federation, including in the sphere of geopolitics, is expanding and strengthening. Approximately how friendship of peoples in the era of the USSR.
As the RIA News"Vladimir Putin noted the consistency of interaction between Russia and China from the point of solving important international problems, in particular, on Syria.
“Our coordinated position in the international arena is undoubtedly bearing fruit. Manages to achieve solutions to the world's largest problems. The latest example is the Syrian problem, ”said V. Putin, opening a meeting with Xi Jinping at the APEC summit.
The Chinese leader, in turn, noted that the parties are taking similar positions on sensitive issues: “The closest interaction to solve the Syrian issue, to solve the nuclear problem on the Korean Peninsula is a clear evidence of this. I think that we have either similar or identical positions on all these issues. ”
And then Comrade Xi noted that Russia plays an important role in the Asia-Pacific region.
This was followed by a statement by the Chinese leader about the readiness to continue developing cooperation within the framework of APEC.
Xi Jinping summed up: "This year is a year of a rich harvest in the development of our relations."
Further, the conversation touched on such important topics as foreign trade and military cooperation between China and the Russian Federation.
Vladimir Putin noted that Russia and China cooperate in military-technical cooperation and military affairs. He recalled that the military of the two countries participated in two large exercises on land and at sea. In turn, Comrade Xi said that this year there will be a meeting of the commission on military-technical cooperation, a meeting of heads of government and the closing ceremony of the Year of Chinese Tourism in Russia.
What do the Chinese write about all this?
On the portal cri.cn (English version) with reference to Xinhua 8 of October, an article appeared, the leitmotiv of which is the Chinese invitation to Russia to participate in ensuring the security of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR).
The essence of the material in brief is as follows.
At the APEC summit in backstage conversation with V. Putin, Xi Jinping said that China would like to work with Russia to ensure security and stability in the APR. At the same time, Comrade X declared that China and Russia have a wide range of common interests in the region.
Developing the topic, the Chinese leader explained that China is ready to strengthen coordination with Russia in order to maintain security and stability in the region, as well as to promote its prosperity.
In addition, the Chinese leader called 2013 a fruitful year for China and Russia, noting that a lot had been achieved. He then urged both sides to optimize the structure of bilateral trade, to promote cooperation in energy, resources and high technology and to continue to maintain close contacts and coordinate on international issues.
The Chinese resource also notes that at the talks, the leaders of the two countries agreed to hold events in 2015 to celebrate the 70 anniversary of the victory over the Nazis.
The press notes the Chinese-Russian rapprochement within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
Peter Akopov ("Sight") writes that the SCO is becoming an increasingly influential player on the world stage - the union of Moscow, Beijing and Delhi.
Russia supported the bids of India and Pakistan. And such support is impossible without the consent of China.
“India almost from the very moment of the creation of the SCO wanted to join this organization, and it was accepted as an observer,” Tatyana Shaumyan, head of the Center for Indian Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained to the Vzglyad newspaper. “But as soon as the conversation about its full-fledged entry began, Pakistan immediately joined, who was also interested in accepting to the SCO. In this situation, it turned out that Russia was ready to support the entry of India, and China rather spoke in favor of Pakistan. Apparently, Beijing did not even so much object to the accession of India, as it indicated that in this case Pakistan must also be accepted. As a result, it was decided to join both countries. ”
Joint decisions of the PRC and the Russian Federation within the framework of the SCO, thus, also speak of increasing geopolitical and economic cooperation.
The accelerated development of China, which has become a significant geopolitical player, gave rise to one American professor to declare: in 2035, China will become a threat to Russia and the United States, and as a result, the two states will unite against Beijing.
In an editorial entitled "American Professor: by 2035, China will become a threat to Russia and America, and the powers will create an anti-Chinese union" ("Huangqiu Shibao"; source of translation - "InoSMI"), with reference to RIA Novosti, the words of Eduard Ponarin, a professor at the HSE Department, are cited. 1 August at the presentation of the report “Russian elite - 2020” (report on the development of Russia in the period from 2015 to 2030 year created with the help of the Valdai Club), he noted that the views of the Russian elite on the USA had undergone a significant transformation: if in 1993 year the tip of Russian society was friendly to America, but today America is perceived as a threat to Russia's security. True, if a “common threat” hangs over these two countries, the elites of the United States and Russia may discover a commonality of interests. William Zimmerman, a professor at the University of Michigan who participated in the discussion, said bluntly that the “common threat” is China. Zimmerman further stated that by 2035, China would become a sufficient threat for Russia and the United States to join forces to fight China, the Chinese newspaper said.
The expert on Chinese-Russian relations, Xia Yishan in the same “Huanqiu Shibao,” the next day, explained that in Russia there is an alarm about the direction in which China will develop. In Russia, there are supporters of the idea of a "yellow threat", but they are few. The expert draws the attention of readers to the fact that after the collapse of the USSR, America had a great influence on the Russian intelligentsia. Some even began to speak instead of American speakers, announcing a “yellow threat”. Again, these people do not represent the views of the entire Russian intelligentsia. To this, Xia Ishan added that the Russian experts he knew did not raise the topic of the Russian-American alliance against China. The expert believes that the Russian public is much more concerned about the possibility of rapprochement between the United States and China: these two powers would then be able to completely rule the world.
As for the American experts, they have expressed their thoughts about the Russian-American alliance against the PRC for the first time. It is they who often slander China: they say, he is crushing the neighboring countries and is going to take over Russian natural resources. The conclusion that Washington and Moscow should join forces and put an end to the growth of Chinese influence in Asia is also American.
In a essay published in Foreign Affairs, senior researcher at the Center for New American Security Robert D. Kaplan writes that in order not to yield to China, the United States can conclude a strategic alliance with Russia. And Russia may well accept such a proposal: after all, China allegedly slowly seizes the territories of the Far East and Siberia by means of settlers and enterprises “leaking” into it.
In October, predictions about the bright (or dark) future of China and Russia appeared in the media.
Ekaterina Kravchenko (Vedomosti.ru) cites the IMF forecast, according to which Russia and China have exhausted the current growth model.
The Russian economy, the Fund believes, will grow by an average of 3,5% versus 4,4% in 1998-2013, and the Chinese economy will grow by 7% versus 9,6%.
The forecast says about the reasons for the slowdown of the “dragon”: “The excessively high growth rates of investment, which accounted for almost half of GDP, led to the creation of excess capacity and diminishing returns.” It is also noted that the demographic factor has been exhausted: since 2014, the number of labor force in the PRC will begin to decline, and productivity will decline.
What prevents Russia from developing?
There is poor infrastructure, especially transport and power grid, there is excessive dependence on commodities, there is a bad business climate. Growth in the Russian Federation continued due to the high price of oil and free capacity, according to the IMF. Foundation experts point out: "This model no longer works."
According to the forecast, in 2013 the growth of the Russian economy will be only 1,5% - after 3,4% in 2012, and 4,3% in 2011. In 2014, the growth will reach 3%. Negative demographic dynamics will reinforce negative factors. And in the slowdown of Russia will contribute to the attenuation of the economy of China. This contribution will be 0,9% in 2013 and 0,7% in 2014.
IA "Finmarket" cites the message of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), according to which the leading indicators in China indicate that the economic growth rates there return to a long-term trend. In Russia, a positive change in growth momentum was noted.
The Chinese index of leading indicators remained at the level of the 99,3 point, the Russian index rose from the 99,3 point to the 99,4 point.
As for the United States, we’ll add, on October 17, a “default” can occur: the state will not be able to pay its debts. Leading economists are already predicting a US catastrophe. Against this background, it is hard to believe that Russia will unite with America in order to resist the expansion of China. It’s all the same as if a drowning person would ask for help from another drowning person.
Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
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