Ukraine is one of nine countries in the world that have a full production cycle of their own aircraft. The main enterprise of the aviation industry in Ukraine is Antonov, which includes the state enterprise Factory 410 Civil aviation”And Kharkov State Aviation Production Enterprise (KHAPP). In connection with the plans of the Ukrainian government to sign the Association Agreement with the EU, this unique legacy of the USSR can be irretrievably lost.
The interrelation of the Ukrainian and Russian aircraft industry is critical. The main area in which there is an acute dependence of the Russian side on Ukrainian enterprises is aircraft engine-building. After the collapse of the USSR, assembly helicopter factories were concentrated in Russia, and the largest supplier of engines for them, Motor Sich, remained in Ukraine. Supplies of the Ukrainian enterprise will remain crucial for Russian helicopter manufacturers at least until 2017-2018. In turn, the share of Russian contracts accounts for more than 68,7% of Motor Sich supplies.
The situation is similar in the aircraft industry. During his speech at the ninth meeting of the Inter-Parliamentary Commission on Cooperation between the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, Antonov GK Designer Dmitry Kiva presented the products of his company, where there is not a single project in which Russia’s share would be less than 50%. In particular, 148 enterprises of Russia take part in the production of An-126, where more than 60% of aircraft components are manufactured.
The share of Russian products in the final cost of An-140, on the creation of which 100 Russian factories work, is about 70% (1).
Evidence of the importance that the Russian side attaches to cooperation with the Ukrainian aviation industry was the signing in 2010 of the agreement between Russia and Ukraine on the creation of a joint venture on an equal basis, which will be engaged in sales of An aircraft, as well as developing new models and positioning them on the world market. . At the Dubai Airshow 2011 air show, which took place in November 2011, Russian Helicopters signed a firm contract with Motor Sich to supply about 1,3 thousand TV3-117 engines for five years totaling $ 1,2-1,5 billion. This is the first long-term contract between Russian manufacturers and Ukrainian supplier. Even despite the blatant bias of V. Yanukovych towards the EU, the parties agreed to sign an intergovernmental agreement on the implementation of the program of military-technical cooperation before 2017 in the very near future, which also includes cooperation in the field of aviation.
Obviously, it is the awareness of the Ukrainian side about the need for Russia for products of the Ukrainian aviation industry that gives the Bank self-confidence on the issue of European integration. They say that this Russia will not go anywhere, they will build planes and engines from Boguslaev.
In fact, not everything is so well "in the Danish kingdom."
"Resurgent" aviation industry
It was with such an optimistic phrase that the Prime Minister of Ukraine N. Azarov pleased the aircraft manufacturers during the ceremonial transfer to the Republic of Cuba of the first mass-produced An-158 aircraft. However, Nikolai Yanovich delicately kept silent about the fact that the manufacture of the aircraft became possible within the framework of the contract signed in 2011 by Antonov and the Russian leasing company Ilyushin Finance Co., according to which, by the end of the year, two An- 158, three more aircraft - in 2014 year. What happens if Russia refuses to build planes for Cuba together with Ukraine, we can only guess. Probably, repairing the “corn dusters”, as SE Antonov and Motor Sich plan to do, agreed with the Cuban Aviation Corporation to modernize the X-NUMX units of the An-140 aircraft. Of course, there is nothing bad in the well-established "corncob", but relying on the success in repairing them "will attract customers from other regions and ... help the company diversify its sales geography, which is especially important today because of trade disputes with Russia" least funny.
Being one of the world leaders in the transport aircraft industry, capable of producing the An-124-100 Ruslan, the An-70 and the only large-tonnage An-225 Mriya aircraft in the world, only true European integrators can build their industry revival plans for the repair of the corncob .
The aviation industry of Ukraine is facing systemic problems. In 2010-2011 budgetary financing of the industry was almost stopped, whereas the depreciation of fixed assets of the aviation industry of Ukraine exceeds today 70%, and the average age of specialists in the industry is 50 years. Losses in the management of the Antonov plant alone in Kiev in 2010 reached 252,5 million UAH. Complicated processes of corporatization of aircraft manufacturing enterprises, lack of domestic demand for products, as well as a high level of competition in world markets aggravate the problems.
If we analyze the structure of Ukrainian aircraft exports, the situation looks even more depressing. Over 2005-2011 Ukraine exported 182 aircraft. At the same time, about half of the total sales volume is occupied by the Czech (!) L-39. In second place (12%) - MiG-21, then 11% received MiG-29 and Su-22, Su-25 (around 6,5%), MiG-27 (4%), IL-78 (3%), An-12, An-72, An-74 and Su-27UB (by 2%) and MiG-23MLD (1%). That is, the percentage of exported aircraft, which were manufactured directly in Ukraine, is only 3% of total sales. At the same time, the CIS countries account for 28% of aircraft supplies, to the Middle East - 25%, Europe - 19%, Africa - 11,5%, Asia - 8%, USA - 5,5%. As for helicopters, 48% of their exports go to CIS countries, 39% to Africa.
The traditional for Ukraine market in the Middle East, according to the KSAMC leadership, can be lost for many years due to the instability of the region, which makes Ukraine reorient to the CIS and Asia, where it is simply impossible to act without Russia's support.
Fierce competition in the global market for the production of aviation technology makes even the world's largest powers unite. In particular, the unification of Boeing and McDonnell-Douglas corporations in the USA allowed this country to seize 90% of the market of large airliners and 70% of the production of all aircraft on the world market. And the European Airbus Industry united aircraft manufacturing companies in France, Great Britain, Germany, Spain, Italy and Switzerland. At this time, Ukraine, diligently brushing off cooperation projects proposed by Russia, declares its readiness to build An-70 independently or with the involvement of western partners.
History teaches that teaches nothing, especially then, if consciousness is poisoned by the European integration virus. In the middle of 90's. The development of the Ukrainian aviation industry has shown considerable interest in the American Corporation Woeing. Through the American company Sigma Bleyzer, created by an émigré from Kharkov Lev Blayzer, who established relations with the then head of the Kharkov State Aircraft Production and Production Complex, P. Naumenko, the American side actively lobbied to form a concern that unites all aircraft manufacturing enterprises under the guidance of the Kharkov State Aircraft Production Enterprise. The result of American intrigues, which poisoned Ukrainian producers among themselves, was the loss by Ukraine of a tender to the US Department of Defense for the supply of aircraft to the US Air Force tankers. Applications for participation in the tender have been submitted by the European Aerospace Corporation EADS, concern Boeing Co. and US Aerospace, which offered at the tender the products of the Ukrainian State Enterprise Antonov. The US Air Force rejected the US Aerospace proposal, stating that it was filed after the deadline. It goes without saying that the tender won Boeing. The friendship with the Americans ended badly for P.Naumenko himself, who received 10 years of imprisonment for embezzling 40 million UAH. It is in the spirit of American transnational corporations, exciting businesses in order to eliminate them and bankruptcy to eliminate competitors.
Ukrainians also very much hoped for cooperation with Airbus in the production of the A400M transport aircraft, up to the production of parts and components of the aircraft in Ukraine. It all ended with the fact that the Europeans, having received from the Antonov State Enterprise the technical documentation of the aircraft, after some time produced their own, suspiciously similar to the Ukrainian prototype. Naturally, without the participation of the Ukrainian side.
Recently, the European "partners" of Ukraine have completely ceased to hide their intentions. According to Mykola Azarov, "I had a meeting with the French leadership and the leadership of the airline Airbus, and they told me that your aircraft (An-70) is better than ours, but we will do everything so that your plane does not find a market."
More clearly you will not say: the EU has made it clear that the Ukrainian aviation industry considers it a competitor and intends to destroy it.
A holy place is never empty
While the Ukrainian establishment is trying to make friends with Europe and the United States, Russia is gradually abandoning joint projects with Ukraine in the field of aviation and is actively engaged in the development of substitute industries. And this means that Ukrainian enterprises, which are now surviving solely thanks to industrial cooperation with Russia, in a few years will simply have to close for lack of orders, financing and sales markets.
As Russian Ambassador to Ukraine Mikhail Zurabov said, Russia completely refuses to implement a project with Ukraine for the production of the AN-70 aircraft. And although the Russian side subsequently softened its position, the number of aircraft as part of the initial order of the Russian Defense Ministry sharply decreased compared with the original intentions. To replace the An-70 Russia is promoting a new IL-476 aircraft developed by the Aviation Complex named after Ilyushin. Although Ukraine declared its readiness to produce AN-70 independently, this is hardly realistic, since Russia financed the project by 72%, and Ukraine had to invest 28%, but did not fulfill its obligations.
Production of the An-124 “Ruslan” of the Russian Defense Ministry has already ordered from Avianastar-SP Ulyanovsk, the transport An-140 in the military version will be replaced by creating its own IL-112.
Ukrainian helicopter pilots have no better prospects. In Russia, a program for the development of serial production of helicopter engines was adopted, providing for the creation of serial production of TV3-117 and VK-2500, as well as the VK-800В engine for the Ansat multipurpose helicopter. The program also provides for the localization of the foreign Arrius and Ardiden engines of the French company Turbomeca for Ka-226 and Ka-60 / 62 helicopters.
Eurointegration suicide of the industry
Such significant efforts of Russia to develop substitute industries are not at all due to the desire to “punish” Ukraine, but by the strict need to ensure their own national security, since Ukraine’s aviation technologies are mainly intended for the production of aviation used for military purposes, and the Ministry of Defense is the main customer of Ukrainian products. RF.
The Association Agreement with the EU, which is scheduled to be signed in November of this year, directly implies the involvement of Ukraine in the EU’s joint defense and security policy.
In particular, clause d of part 2 of Article 4 of the Association Agreement indicates that the purpose of the political dialogue between the parties is to deepen security and defense cooperation. And article 7 indicates that “the parties should deepen their dialogue and cooperation and promote gradual convergence in the field of foreign and security policy, including the Joint Security and Defense Policy”. I think you should not be reminded that NATO is responsible for security issues in the EU, which has not created its own collective security forces. Therefore, Russia cannot afford to depend on a supplier who is in "deep convergence relations" with a strategic adversary.
Contains the Association Agreement and other provisions that make domestic aircraft unviable. In accordance with the Law of Ukraine “On Amendments to Certain Laws of Ukraine Concerning State Support of the Aircraft Industry in Ukraine”, enterprises in the aviation industry until 1 in January 2016 enjoy privileges when paying import duties, land tax, VAT, corporate income tax, etc. Also, aircraft manufacturers have the right to procure components without tenders, for which changes were made to the Law of Ukraine "On the implementation of public procurement." Article 262 of the Association Agreement expressly prohibits the use of measures “with the use of public resources that violate or threaten to violate competition by providing benefits to individual enterprises or the production of certain goods”.
Thus, all benefits for aircraft manufacturers will have to be canceled, since the Ukrainian side has taken care to include only the protection of car manufacturers in the agreement.
How tough the EU requirements will be to abolish all the benefits for the aircraft industry can be assessed if we recall the pressure that the Ukrainian side faced after the creation of the Ukrainian-Korean joint venture AvtoZAZ-Daewoo. From the introduction of economic sanctions, our country was then saved only by the bankruptcy of a Korean manufacturer.
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Summarizing the above, it becomes obvious that the Ukrainian aviation industry can exist only in cooperation with the Russian one. Breaking ties with Russian partners will not only deprive Ukraine of sales markets for its products, but will also make impossible the continued existence of this strategic and socially important industry in principle. Financial hunger and suffocating measures of western and Russian competitors are capable of destroying the domestic aviation industry in a matter of years. The only condition for its preservation is the entry of Ukraine into the Customs Union.
But no. There remains one more option: under the strict European leadership, to turn the Ukrainian aviation industry into an An-2 repair base, plying the planet's sky from 1947 ...
(1) Comprehensive assessment of the macroeconomic effect of various forms of deep economic cooperation between Ukraine and the countries of the Customs Union and the Common Economic Space within the EurAsEC. Final scientific and technical report.