Central Asia - 2014: Moscow, American or Chinese?
The main thing in Central Asia for the United States is not at all the notorious corruption in the region, not regular infringement of human rights and the suppression of its freedoms, not interethnic conflicts, not drug trafficking, and certainly not the rise of terrorism. Washington’s attention is focused on Central Asia because the region is already an arena where it has to compete with such world players as Moscow and Beijing.
In February, 2013, in the Washington Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Dr. Jeffrey Mankoff’s report “The USA and Central Asia after 2014” was discussed, Natasha Mozgovaya writes."Voice of America").
Mr. Mankoff - Deputy Director of Programs for the Study of Russia and Eurasia, CSIS. He does not exclude that the withdrawal of troops will increase the risk factor for conflicts, the presence of Islamists, inter-ethnic tensions, rivalries on a number of issues and drug trafficking. The region also becomes an arena for the strategic rivalry of the countries of the West, Russia and China.
Mankoff noted that after 2014, Central Asia will no longer be a priority for US foreign policy. America will have to change its attitude to the region. By the way, earlier in Washington they often turned a blind eye to the internal problems of the Central Asian states, Mankoff said. The White House feared that criticism could adversely affect the republics' readiness to assist NATO in the transit of cargo and troops to Afghanistan.
The expert described the American dilemma: the United States cannot deal with the region on their own, but they are unlikely to risk taking the solution of the problems of Central Asia to "outsourcing". Refusing from China, Mankoff, referring to the American economic crisis, called on the United States and Russia to "responsible cooperation" after the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan.
The solution proposed by the expert: conclude agreements with several partners on possible rapid troop movements. At the same time, the United States will reduce its military presence to a minimum and initiate an open dialogue between the countries of the region with the participation of the United States and Russia. The agenda will be the problem of drug trafficking and threats to regional security.
And here Mankoff notes that the Russian policy towards the former Soviet republics of Central Asia is contradictory. It is focused on increasing the economic integration of Eurasia: Moscow wants to consolidate the markets for Russian-made goods that are now competing with Chinese. Moscow stresses that the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan will increase the value of the CSTO. At the same time, Russia is suspicious of the motivation of the American presence in the region.
As for the United States, they formulated the strategy of the “new silk road”, linking Afghanistan and other countries in the region with economically successful South Asian countries. At the same time, America is trying to limit participation in the aforementioned process of Iran, China and Russia. Mr. Mankoff believes that such a strategy is not feasible even from a geographical point of view.
“Few observers in Central Asia believe that the war in Afghanistan has been crowned with success,” N. Brain quotes Mankoff as saying. “But they also fear that withdrawing troops will only aggravate the situation.” Washington will have to convince them that the Americans are leaving Afghanistan, which is on the road to stability, or at least not a hopeless option. ”
It is also curious that during the discussion, Dr. Andrew Kuchins, director of programs for the study of Russia and Eurasia at CSIS, noted that "President Obama has not yet presented a global strategic vision why Afghanistan is important to America - besides the fight against terror."
And it is, I mean the vision, we add from myself, just a global one. True, not strategic, because Obama as a strategist on the world stage was useless. Washington doesn’t want Russia, China and other players to strengthen in Central Asia (including by competing for markets). Washington still wants to control the entire planet. This network is a global view in foreign policy, only outdated and more idealistic than realistic. Obama seems to be trying to operate with the consciousness of twenty years ago, when the United States reveled in the central role on the planet, when there was no crisis and it was possible to bomb, democratize and lecture anyone. But, since being determines consciousness, and not vice versa, B. H. Obama should learn: 1990-e years went into historyand we all have to live in the XXI century, the world in which takes on a multipolar form.
Noah Tucker (registan.net), who acted as editor of the article by Alisher Abdugofurov (Alisher Abdug'ofurov), presented the young author of the publication as an ethnic Uzbek living in Kyrgyzstan and willing to convey to the general public his view of the future of American politics from the inside - from the region. According to the journalist, Alisher reminded that if we don’t do anything, then others will do it.
Alisher believes that the United States should continue an active foreign policy in the region. There are several reasons for this.
1. The United States must prove in practice that the promotion of democracy and human rights is one of the main directions of their foreign policy. In the Soviet era, the countries of Central Asia, disconnected from the outside world, knew America on the one hand as an enemy of the Soviet Union. Everything changed after independence: thanks to international organizations, the United States and Europe have made a name for themselves as the bearers of freedom of speech, human rights and democracy. For thousands of young people, the West has become a promised land. However, notes young Alisher, after the terrorist attacks of “9 / 11” and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the authority of the USA in Central Asia began to decline. Further, the “Arab Spring” and US cooperation with the repressive regimes of Central Asia gave reason to believe that the US is ready to seize any oil-rich country and cooperate with any regime - if only he was loyal to Washington.
In order to restore its good name, America must consistently promote human rights and democracy. In any case, Alisher believes, the USA is a more democratic country than even the most democratic country in the post-Soviet region. Thus, America can play a key role in strengthening the values of democracy in Central Asia. But this process should take place peacefully, without the support of "color" revolutions. On the example of Kyrgyzstan, we have already seen, the author notes that revolutions do not give good results. The US should support democratic change, not specific politicians or parties.
2. The United States plays an important role in the balance of power in the region. As soon as the Russian economy began to grow, Russia began to try to rebuild the old colonies that were previously part of the Soviet influence. The CSTO, the Customs Union and the Eurasian Union are examples of this kind of activity. And if, after 2014, the United States will not pursue an active policy in Central Asia, local countries may be involved in the integration projects of Putin’s Russia. If Alisher believes that what is happening with Russia in terms of democracy during the reign of Mr. Putin, it is easy to guess that these alliances will not be based on equality and will not be very different from the USSR.
We should not forget about China, which is also not averse to strengthening its influence in the region.
3. A safety issue. After 2014, terrorist groups may become more active. In Central Asia today, only Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have real armies capable of fighting the terrorists. But even they may not be able to withstand the war against terrorists for a long time, who have gained a lot of experience in actions against NATO. That is why the United States, the author notes, should remain one of the main actors in the Central Asian region even after the 2014 year.
Saule Mukhametrakhimova, editor Iwpr (Institute for War & Peace Reporting) on Central Asia, writes that the recent activity of Central Asian groups in northern Afghanistan indicates their plans to fill the vacuum that may form in the region after the withdrawal of international troops in 2014. The analyst is referring to the events of the spring of 2013, when government forces clashed with Taliban forces in the northern Afghan provinces of Badakhshan and Faryab, located respectively on the border of Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. At the same time, the Taliban acted together with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.
It is noted that the offensive of the Taliban in the north indicates their desire to achieve a presence throughout the country. The question of how the IMU fits into their strategy remains open, the expert said. One thing is clear: the group provides Pashtun-Taliban combat forces. Regional experts are sure that the Taliban’s ambitions are limited to Afghanistan, but allied Islamic militants aimed at Central Asia may have their own intentions.
Alexander Zelichenko, director of the Central Asian Drug Policy Center in Bishkek, indicates that because of the presence of the ISAF in Afghanistan, members of Islamic groups are unable to move freely throughout the country. However, after the withdrawal, the situation may change in their favor.
S. Mukhametrakhimova notes that of the three states of Central Asia bordering Afghanistan, only Uzbekistan has the strength to close its border - an 137-kilometer segment with a double barbed wire fence provided with armed guards.
But the Tajik and Turkmen borders with Afghanistan (the length of 1300 km and 744 km, respectively) is a big question ...
An analyst from the Fergana Valley, Abdusalom Ergashev, fears that the territory of the Fergana Valley, where Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan meet, may turn out to be uncontrolled territory. According to him, this became apparent in the south of Kyrgyzstan, where local groups of influence are not subject to the central government. The same can happen in Tajikistan or Uzbekistan, he believes.
Heydar Jemal, the founder of the Russian Political Committee, chairman of the Islamic Committee of Russia, sees Central Asia as a platform for the confrontation of world powers in the future. He was interviewed by Haydar Shodiev ("Asia-plus"). Answering the question of how he sees the political situation in Tajikistan in the near future, Heydar Jemal answered:
As for the confrontation between the USA and China in Central Asia, in order to isolate China, according to Jemal, Washington will have to perform three tasks: to neutralize Russia's influence as a partner of China; neutralize the influence of Iran; turn Central Asia into an adversary of China. In turn, Moscow will not give Washington the opportunity to implement plans in the region.
According to the expert, a conflict is expected between “Eurasism” (Russia, China and Iran) and “Atlantism” (Western states and the United States).
Anton Chernov, Deputy Editor-in-Chief "Arsenal of the Fatherland", laid out the problems of the Central Asian region, including those related to the period after 2014.
1. Religious extremism. It is possible that the latter will be most pronounced in the Fergana Valley.
2. Drugs. Obviously, with the departure of ISAF from Afghanistan, the drug trafficking situation will worsen. The situation is aggravated by the difficult socio-economic situation in some countries of Central Asia, as well as a high level of corruption.
3. Mineral resources and water. Extremists view threats to oil and gas infrastructure as an instrument of pressure on local governments. As for water resources, they are unevenly distributed in Central Asia. This gives rise to a conflict of interests between key water suppliers (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) and its main consumers (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan).
4. Military bases. After the departure of coalition forces from Afghanistan, the brunt of defensive measures will fall on Russia, but the Russian economy is unlikely to “pull” the costs of such events alone. The role of coordination of efforts within the CSTO will increase. Coordination with other countries in the region should also be strengthened. American military bases on the territory of the Central Asian states can be considered as barriers to extremism. These bases will “channel”, the author believes, the attention of the Taliban, preventing the spread of their influence. In the future, subject to the strengthening of Russia's defense, it is necessary to adjust the foreign policy towards withdrawal of US bases from the region.
Thus, the geopolitical game and its scenarios are very clear: the victory in the match will go to those who hold and expand their influence in the region. The main difficulty on the way to victory is the lack of resources of the two main players in Central Asia: the United States and Russia. As for China, while Washington and Moscow are strategically pondering, as if cheaper and halfway, the “dragon” with purely Eastern wisdom day after day, bargain after bargain perches on the economic igloo of the countries of the region, generously changing the shirport for minerals ...
In February, 2013, in the Washington Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Dr. Jeffrey Mankoff’s report “The USA and Central Asia after 2014” was discussed, Natasha Mozgovaya writes."Voice of America").
Mr. Mankoff - Deputy Director of Programs for the Study of Russia and Eurasia, CSIS. He does not exclude that the withdrawal of troops will increase the risk factor for conflicts, the presence of Islamists, inter-ethnic tensions, rivalries on a number of issues and drug trafficking. The region also becomes an arena for the strategic rivalry of the countries of the West, Russia and China.
Mankoff noted that after 2014, Central Asia will no longer be a priority for US foreign policy. America will have to change its attitude to the region. By the way, earlier in Washington they often turned a blind eye to the internal problems of the Central Asian states, Mankoff said. The White House feared that criticism could adversely affect the republics' readiness to assist NATO in the transit of cargo and troops to Afghanistan.
The expert described the American dilemma: the United States cannot deal with the region on their own, but they are unlikely to risk taking the solution of the problems of Central Asia to "outsourcing". Refusing from China, Mankoff, referring to the American economic crisis, called on the United States and Russia to "responsible cooperation" after the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan.
The solution proposed by the expert: conclude agreements with several partners on possible rapid troop movements. At the same time, the United States will reduce its military presence to a minimum and initiate an open dialogue between the countries of the region with the participation of the United States and Russia. The agenda will be the problem of drug trafficking and threats to regional security.
And here Mankoff notes that the Russian policy towards the former Soviet republics of Central Asia is contradictory. It is focused on increasing the economic integration of Eurasia: Moscow wants to consolidate the markets for Russian-made goods that are now competing with Chinese. Moscow stresses that the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan will increase the value of the CSTO. At the same time, Russia is suspicious of the motivation of the American presence in the region.
As for the United States, they formulated the strategy of the “new silk road”, linking Afghanistan and other countries in the region with economically successful South Asian countries. At the same time, America is trying to limit participation in the aforementioned process of Iran, China and Russia. Mr. Mankoff believes that such a strategy is not feasible even from a geographical point of view.
“Few observers in Central Asia believe that the war in Afghanistan has been crowned with success,” N. Brain quotes Mankoff as saying. “But they also fear that withdrawing troops will only aggravate the situation.” Washington will have to convince them that the Americans are leaving Afghanistan, which is on the road to stability, or at least not a hopeless option. ”
It is also curious that during the discussion, Dr. Andrew Kuchins, director of programs for the study of Russia and Eurasia at CSIS, noted that "President Obama has not yet presented a global strategic vision why Afghanistan is important to America - besides the fight against terror."
And it is, I mean the vision, we add from myself, just a global one. True, not strategic, because Obama as a strategist on the world stage was useless. Washington doesn’t want Russia, China and other players to strengthen in Central Asia (including by competing for markets). Washington still wants to control the entire planet. This network is a global view in foreign policy, only outdated and more idealistic than realistic. Obama seems to be trying to operate with the consciousness of twenty years ago, when the United States reveled in the central role on the planet, when there was no crisis and it was possible to bomb, democratize and lecture anyone. But, since being determines consciousness, and not vice versa, B. H. Obama should learn: 1990-e years went into historyand we all have to live in the XXI century, the world in which takes on a multipolar form.
Noah Tucker (registan.net), who acted as editor of the article by Alisher Abdugofurov (Alisher Abdug'ofurov), presented the young author of the publication as an ethnic Uzbek living in Kyrgyzstan and willing to convey to the general public his view of the future of American politics from the inside - from the region. According to the journalist, Alisher reminded that if we don’t do anything, then others will do it.
Alisher believes that the United States should continue an active foreign policy in the region. There are several reasons for this.
1. The United States must prove in practice that the promotion of democracy and human rights is one of the main directions of their foreign policy. In the Soviet era, the countries of Central Asia, disconnected from the outside world, knew America on the one hand as an enemy of the Soviet Union. Everything changed after independence: thanks to international organizations, the United States and Europe have made a name for themselves as the bearers of freedom of speech, human rights and democracy. For thousands of young people, the West has become a promised land. However, notes young Alisher, after the terrorist attacks of “9 / 11” and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the authority of the USA in Central Asia began to decline. Further, the “Arab Spring” and US cooperation with the repressive regimes of Central Asia gave reason to believe that the US is ready to seize any oil-rich country and cooperate with any regime - if only he was loyal to Washington.
In order to restore its good name, America must consistently promote human rights and democracy. In any case, Alisher believes, the USA is a more democratic country than even the most democratic country in the post-Soviet region. Thus, America can play a key role in strengthening the values of democracy in Central Asia. But this process should take place peacefully, without the support of "color" revolutions. On the example of Kyrgyzstan, we have already seen, the author notes that revolutions do not give good results. The US should support democratic change, not specific politicians or parties.
2. The United States plays an important role in the balance of power in the region. As soon as the Russian economy began to grow, Russia began to try to rebuild the old colonies that were previously part of the Soviet influence. The CSTO, the Customs Union and the Eurasian Union are examples of this kind of activity. And if, after 2014, the United States will not pursue an active policy in Central Asia, local countries may be involved in the integration projects of Putin’s Russia. If Alisher believes that what is happening with Russia in terms of democracy during the reign of Mr. Putin, it is easy to guess that these alliances will not be based on equality and will not be very different from the USSR.
We should not forget about China, which is also not averse to strengthening its influence in the region.
3. A safety issue. After 2014, terrorist groups may become more active. In Central Asia today, only Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have real armies capable of fighting the terrorists. But even they may not be able to withstand the war against terrorists for a long time, who have gained a lot of experience in actions against NATO. That is why the United States, the author notes, should remain one of the main actors in the Central Asian region even after the 2014 year.
Saule Mukhametrakhimova, editor Iwpr (Institute for War & Peace Reporting) on Central Asia, writes that the recent activity of Central Asian groups in northern Afghanistan indicates their plans to fill the vacuum that may form in the region after the withdrawal of international troops in 2014. The analyst is referring to the events of the spring of 2013, when government forces clashed with Taliban forces in the northern Afghan provinces of Badakhshan and Faryab, located respectively on the border of Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. At the same time, the Taliban acted together with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.
It is noted that the offensive of the Taliban in the north indicates their desire to achieve a presence throughout the country. The question of how the IMU fits into their strategy remains open, the expert said. One thing is clear: the group provides Pashtun-Taliban combat forces. Regional experts are sure that the Taliban’s ambitions are limited to Afghanistan, but allied Islamic militants aimed at Central Asia may have their own intentions.
Alexander Zelichenko, director of the Central Asian Drug Policy Center in Bishkek, indicates that because of the presence of the ISAF in Afghanistan, members of Islamic groups are unable to move freely throughout the country. However, after the withdrawal, the situation may change in their favor.
S. Mukhametrakhimova notes that of the three states of Central Asia bordering Afghanistan, only Uzbekistan has the strength to close its border - an 137-kilometer segment with a double barbed wire fence provided with armed guards.
But the Tajik and Turkmen borders with Afghanistan (the length of 1300 km and 744 km, respectively) is a big question ...
An analyst from the Fergana Valley, Abdusalom Ergashev, fears that the territory of the Fergana Valley, where Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan meet, may turn out to be uncontrolled territory. According to him, this became apparent in the south of Kyrgyzstan, where local groups of influence are not subject to the central government. The same can happen in Tajikistan or Uzbekistan, he believes.
Heydar Jemal, the founder of the Russian Political Committee, chairman of the Islamic Committee of Russia, sees Central Asia as a platform for the confrontation of world powers in the future. He was interviewed by Haydar Shodiev ("Asia-plus"). Answering the question of how he sees the political situation in Tajikistan in the near future, Heydar Jemal answered:
“The fact is that the political situation in Tajikistan is not autonomous and depends on the situation in the Central Asian region as a whole. And it is determined by the growing conflict between China, on the one hand, and the United States, on the other. Today, the countries of Central Asia are led by former communist first secretaries. They will not in any weather turn their republics into a springboard against China. Naturally, Americans want to change this situation in their favor.
Central Asia is doomed to become a platform for the confrontation of these world powers. This region is key in the confrontation between the West and China. This is a region located in close proximity to countries such as China, Afghanistan, Russia, Pakistan, Iran. This is the hinge on which everything is tied. ”
Central Asia is doomed to become a platform for the confrontation of these world powers. This region is key in the confrontation between the West and China. This is a region located in close proximity to countries such as China, Afghanistan, Russia, Pakistan, Iran. This is the hinge on which everything is tied. ”
As for the confrontation between the USA and China in Central Asia, in order to isolate China, according to Jemal, Washington will have to perform three tasks: to neutralize Russia's influence as a partner of China; neutralize the influence of Iran; turn Central Asia into an adversary of China. In turn, Moscow will not give Washington the opportunity to implement plans in the region.
According to the expert, a conflict is expected between “Eurasism” (Russia, China and Iran) and “Atlantism” (Western states and the United States).
Anton Chernov, Deputy Editor-in-Chief "Arsenal of the Fatherland", laid out the problems of the Central Asian region, including those related to the period after 2014.
1. Religious extremism. It is possible that the latter will be most pronounced in the Fergana Valley.
2. Drugs. Obviously, with the departure of ISAF from Afghanistan, the drug trafficking situation will worsen. The situation is aggravated by the difficult socio-economic situation in some countries of Central Asia, as well as a high level of corruption.
3. Mineral resources and water. Extremists view threats to oil and gas infrastructure as an instrument of pressure on local governments. As for water resources, they are unevenly distributed in Central Asia. This gives rise to a conflict of interests between key water suppliers (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) and its main consumers (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan).
4. Military bases. After the departure of coalition forces from Afghanistan, the brunt of defensive measures will fall on Russia, but the Russian economy is unlikely to “pull” the costs of such events alone. The role of coordination of efforts within the CSTO will increase. Coordination with other countries in the region should also be strengthened. American military bases on the territory of the Central Asian states can be considered as barriers to extremism. These bases will “channel”, the author believes, the attention of the Taliban, preventing the spread of their influence. In the future, subject to the strengthening of Russia's defense, it is necessary to adjust the foreign policy towards withdrawal of US bases from the region.
Thus, the geopolitical game and its scenarios are very clear: the victory in the match will go to those who hold and expand their influence in the region. The main difficulty on the way to victory is the lack of resources of the two main players in Central Asia: the United States and Russia. As for China, while Washington and Moscow are strategically pondering, as if cheaper and halfway, the “dragon” with purely Eastern wisdom day after day, bargain after bargain perches on the economic igloo of the countries of the region, generously changing the shirport for minerals ...
Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru
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