Military Review

Central Asia - 2014: Moscow, American or Chinese?

60
The main thing in Central Asia for the United States is not at all the notorious corruption in the region, not regular infringement of human rights and the suppression of its freedoms, not interethnic conflicts, not drug trafficking, and certainly not the rise of terrorism. Washington’s attention is focused on Central Asia because the region is already an arena where it has to compete with such world players as Moscow and Beijing.




In February, 2013, in the Washington Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Dr. Jeffrey Mankoff’s report “The USA and Central Asia after 2014” was discussed, Natasha Mozgovaya writes."Voice of America").

Mr. Mankoff - Deputy Director of Programs for the Study of Russia and Eurasia, CSIS. He does not exclude that the withdrawal of troops will increase the risk factor for conflicts, the presence of Islamists, inter-ethnic tensions, rivalries on a number of issues and drug trafficking. The region also becomes an arena for the strategic rivalry of the countries of the West, Russia and China.

Mankoff noted that after 2014, Central Asia will no longer be a priority for US foreign policy. America will have to change its attitude to the region. By the way, earlier in Washington they often turned a blind eye to the internal problems of the Central Asian states, Mankoff said. The White House feared that criticism could adversely affect the republics' readiness to assist NATO in the transit of cargo and troops to Afghanistan.

The expert described the American dilemma: the United States cannot deal with the region on their own, but they are unlikely to risk taking the solution of the problems of Central Asia to "outsourcing". Refusing from China, Mankoff, referring to the American economic crisis, called on the United States and Russia to "responsible cooperation" after the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan.

The solution proposed by the expert: conclude agreements with several partners on possible rapid troop movements. At the same time, the United States will reduce its military presence to a minimum and initiate an open dialogue between the countries of the region with the participation of the United States and Russia. The agenda will be the problem of drug trafficking and threats to regional security.

And here Mankoff notes that the Russian policy towards the former Soviet republics of Central Asia is contradictory. It is focused on increasing the economic integration of Eurasia: Moscow wants to consolidate the markets for Russian-made goods that are now competing with Chinese. Moscow stresses that the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan will increase the value of the CSTO. At the same time, Russia is suspicious of the motivation of the American presence in the region.

As for the United States, they formulated the strategy of the “new silk road”, linking Afghanistan and other countries in the region with economically successful South Asian countries. At the same time, America is trying to limit participation in the aforementioned process of Iran, China and Russia. Mr. Mankoff believes that such a strategy is not feasible even from a geographical point of view.

“Few observers in Central Asia believe that the war in Afghanistan has been crowned with success,” N. Brain quotes Mankoff as saying. “But they also fear that withdrawing troops will only aggravate the situation.” Washington will have to convince them that the Americans are leaving Afghanistan, which is on the road to stability, or at least not a hopeless option. ”

It is also curious that during the discussion, Dr. Andrew Kuchins, director of programs for the study of Russia and Eurasia at CSIS, noted that "President Obama has not yet presented a global strategic vision why Afghanistan is important to America - besides the fight against terror."

And it is, I mean the vision, we add from myself, just a global one. True, not strategic, because Obama as a strategist on the world stage was useless. Washington doesn’t want Russia, China and other players to strengthen in Central Asia (including by competing for markets). Washington still wants to control the entire planet. This network is a global view in foreign policy, only outdated and more idealistic than realistic. Obama seems to be trying to operate with the consciousness of twenty years ago, when the United States reveled in the central role on the planet, when there was no crisis and it was possible to bomb, democratize and lecture anyone. But, since being determines consciousness, and not vice versa, B. H. Obama should learn: 1990-e years went into historyand we all have to live in the XXI century, the world in which takes on a multipolar form.

Noah Tucker (registan.net), who acted as editor of the article by Alisher Abdugofurov (Alisher Abdug'ofurov), presented the young author of the publication as an ethnic Uzbek living in Kyrgyzstan and willing to convey to the general public his view of the future of American politics from the inside - from the region. According to the journalist, Alisher reminded that if we don’t do anything, then others will do it.

Alisher believes that the United States should continue an active foreign policy in the region. There are several reasons for this.

1. The United States must prove in practice that the promotion of democracy and human rights is one of the main directions of their foreign policy. In the Soviet era, the countries of Central Asia, disconnected from the outside world, knew America on the one hand as an enemy of the Soviet Union. Everything changed after independence: thanks to international organizations, the United States and Europe have made a name for themselves as the bearers of freedom of speech, human rights and democracy. For thousands of young people, the West has become a promised land. However, notes young Alisher, after the terrorist attacks of “9 / 11” and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the authority of the USA in Central Asia began to decline. Further, the “Arab Spring” and US cooperation with the repressive regimes of Central Asia gave reason to believe that the US is ready to seize any oil-rich country and cooperate with any regime - if only he was loyal to Washington.

In order to restore its good name, America must consistently promote human rights and democracy. In any case, Alisher believes, the USA is a more democratic country than even the most democratic country in the post-Soviet region. Thus, America can play a key role in strengthening the values ​​of democracy in Central Asia. But this process should take place peacefully, without the support of "color" revolutions. On the example of Kyrgyzstan, we have already seen, the author notes that revolutions do not give good results. The US should support democratic change, not specific politicians or parties.

2. The United States plays an important role in the balance of power in the region. As soon as the Russian economy began to grow, Russia began to try to rebuild the old colonies that were previously part of the Soviet influence. The CSTO, the Customs Union and the Eurasian Union are examples of this kind of activity. And if, after 2014, the United States will not pursue an active policy in Central Asia, local countries may be involved in the integration projects of Putin’s Russia. If Alisher believes that what is happening with Russia in terms of democracy during the reign of Mr. Putin, it is easy to guess that these alliances will not be based on equality and will not be very different from the USSR.

We should not forget about China, which is also not averse to strengthening its influence in the region.

3. A safety issue. After 2014, terrorist groups may become more active. In Central Asia today, only Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have real armies capable of fighting the terrorists. But even they may not be able to withstand the war against terrorists for a long time, who have gained a lot of experience in actions against NATO. That is why the United States, the author notes, should remain one of the main actors in the Central Asian region even after the 2014 year.

Saule Mukhametrakhimova, editor Iwpr (Institute for War & Peace Reporting) in Central Asia, writes that the recent activity of Central Asian groups in northern Afghanistan indicates their plans to fill the vacuum that may form in the region after the withdrawal of international troops in 2014. The analyst is referring to the events of the spring 2013 of the year, when the northern Afghan provinces of Badakhshan and Faryab, located respectively on the border of Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, clashed with government forces of the Taliban forces. At the same time, the Taliban acted together with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.

It is noted that the offensive of the Taliban in the north indicates their desire to achieve a presence throughout the country. The question of how the IMU fits into their strategy remains open, the expert said. One thing is clear: the group provides Pashtun-Taliban combat forces. Regional experts are sure that the Taliban’s ambitions are limited to Afghanistan, but allied Islamic militants aimed at Central Asia may have their own intentions.

Alexander Zelichenko, director of the Central Asian Drug Policy Center in Bishkek, indicates that because of the presence of the ISAF in Afghanistan, members of Islamic groups are unable to move freely throughout the country. However, after the withdrawal, the situation may change in their favor.

S. Mukhametrakhimova notes that of the three states of Central Asia bordering Afghanistan, only Uzbekistan has the strength to close its border - an 137-kilometer segment with a double barbed wire fence provided with armed guards.

But the Tajik and Turkmen borders with Afghanistan (the length of 1300 km and 744 km, respectively) is a big question ...

An analyst from the Fergana Valley, Abdusalom Ergashev, fears that the territory of the Fergana Valley, where Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan meet, may turn out to be uncontrolled territory. According to him, this became apparent in the south of Kyrgyzstan, where local groups of influence are not subject to the central government. The same can happen in Tajikistan or Uzbekistan, he believes.

Heydar Jemal, the founder of the Russian Political Committee, chairman of the Islamic Committee of Russia, sees Central Asia as a platform for the confrontation of world powers in the future. He was interviewed by Haydar Shodiev ("Asia-plus"). Answering the question of how he sees the political situation in Tajikistan in the near future, Heydar Jemal answered:

“The fact is that the political situation in Tajikistan is not autonomous and depends on the situation in the Central Asian region as a whole. And it is determined by the growing conflict between China, on the one hand, and the United States, on the other. Today, the countries of Central Asia are led by former communist first secretaries. They will not in any weather turn their republics into a springboard against China. Naturally, Americans want to change this situation in their favor.

Central Asia is doomed to become a platform for the confrontation of these world powers. This region is key in the confrontation between the West and China. This is a region located in close proximity to countries such as China, Afghanistan, Russia, Pakistan, Iran. This is the hinge on which everything is tied. ”


As for the confrontation between the USA and China in Central Asia, in order to isolate China, according to Jemal, Washington will have to perform three tasks: to neutralize Russia's influence as a partner of China; neutralize the influence of Iran; turn Central Asia into an adversary of China. In turn, Moscow will not give Washington the opportunity to implement plans in the region.

According to the expert, a conflict is expected between “Eurasism” (Russia, China and Iran) and “Atlantism” (Western states and the United States).

Anton Chernov, Deputy Editor-in-Chief "Arsenal of the Fatherland", laid out the problems of the Central Asian region, including those related to the period after 2014.

1. Religious extremism. It is possible that the latter will be most pronounced in the Fergana Valley.

2. Drugs. Obviously, with the departure of ISAF from Afghanistan, the drug trafficking situation will worsen. The situation is aggravated by the difficult socio-economic situation in some countries of Central Asia, as well as a high level of corruption.

3. Mineral resources and water. Extremists view threats to oil and gas infrastructure as an instrument of pressure on local governments. As for water resources, they are unevenly distributed in Central Asia. This gives rise to a conflict of interests between key water suppliers (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) and its main consumers (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan).

4. Military bases. After the departure of coalition forces from Afghanistan, the brunt of defensive measures will fall on Russia, but the Russian economy is unlikely to “pull” the costs of such events alone. The role of coordination of efforts within the CSTO will increase. Coordination with other countries in the region should also be strengthened. American military bases on the territory of the Central Asian states can be considered as barriers to extremism. These bases will “channel”, the author believes, the attention of the Taliban, preventing the spread of their influence. In the future, subject to the strengthening of Russia's defense, it is necessary to adjust the foreign policy towards withdrawal of US bases from the region.

Thus, the geopolitical game and its scenarios are very clear: the victory in the match will go to those who hold and expand their influence in the region. The main difficulty on the way to victory is the lack of resources of the two main players in Central Asia: the United States and Russia. As for China, while Washington and Moscow are strategically pondering, as if cheaper and halfway, the “dragon” with purely Eastern wisdom day after day, bargain after bargain perches on the economic igloo of the countries of the region, generously changing the shirport for minerals ...

Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
60 comments
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  1. Guun
    Guun 1 October 2013 08: 50 New
    11
    The question should be - Russia or China? the United States is no longer in place - they will declare any (even an ally) dictator and bombing - no need to go far for an example. China has a high chance in CA - money for buys is all. Now let's see how China behaves with the Taliban.
    1. waisson
      waisson 1 October 2013 08: 56 New
      +2
      will trade but but seriously, this question is also interesting to me
    2. Lindon
      Lindon 1 October 2013 09: 33 New
      +5
      Money is everything for everyone.
      The fact that China feeds Central Asia is not for beautiful eyes. They are not rivals to him, but objects of politics - junior partners. And what difference does it make to one big brother Moscow to exchange for another big brother richer and more generous - Beijing.
      Ideally, receive money from two or even three big brothers at once.
      Remember Bakiyev - the Kremlin gave 500 million for the closure of the Manas base, and the USA gave the same - the base was simply renamed.
      The biggest money goes to Kazakhstan of course - there is oil and the strategic position in the region. But everyone is deeply bogged down in Kazakhstan - China owns 30% of oil, the USA - 30% and Russia - generally rents a space center and membership in the CU there. Therefore, they will not touch Kazakhstan - otherwise the loss of huge investments. Therefore, the weakest will swing - Kyrgyzstan first, then Tajikistan - but it is unlikely. It is enough for Kyrgyzstan alone to put everyone else in place - after Saddam and Gaddafi - there are no fools left.
      1. eplewke
        eplewke 1 October 2013 11: 05 New
        +3
        China or Russia, but no matter how mattress covers! A filthy broom must drive these nurseries of "democracy" from Central Asia. Or have you forgotten how they live in Iraq, Libya or Afghanistan now? The answer seems obvious to me ...
        I would like to see Russia in these places, and that is not in Afghanistan.
        1. Scorpio
          Scorpio 1 October 2013 11: 31 New
          0
          No, Russia would at least stay on its territory.
          Definitely, the Chinas will crush everything. But it will be interesting to see how they will bring corpses from Afghanistan, otherwise the British drove, the Russians drove, the Americans carry, and the Chinese are sitting on the sidelines.
      2. vahatak
        vahatak 1 October 2013 11: 58 New
        +1
        It is clear that no one will touch Kazakhstan, but in Kazakhstan they will compete actively. The current situation does not suit any of the three powers.
        1. Essenger
          Essenger 1 October 2013 12: 59 New
          +5
          Quote: vahatak
          It is clear that no one will touch Kazakhstan, but in Kazakhstan they will compete actively. The current situation does not suit any of the three powers.


          all right good
        2. Qazaq
          Qazaq 12 October 2013 19: 11 New
          +1
          I really hope for it. What will be the same as in the Baltic states - very, very Soviet Russia wanted to show that the Baltic region is civilized and advanced. She spared nothing for this - she even deprived herself. And if Russia, China and the USA will do their best to look civilized and advanced, then we Kazakhs will benefit from this. I think it will be so. Kazakhstan is the land beloved of God.
    3. vahatak
      vahatak 1 October 2013 11: 55 New
      +2
      But are you in a hurry, discarding the United States? They also have money, but bombs have not ceased to be an argument in politics.
      1. Guun
        Guun 1 October 2013 13: 52 New
        +2
        Everyone knows how friendship with the USA ends. Doesn’t our President make conclusions when he sees how the United States sponsors terrorists and rapists (plus sects like Grace) and at the same time lies in the face, although their lies have long been exposed? Not not no, dismiss friendship with an exceptional nation. And the Chinese will give more money plus build roads.
        1. vahatak
          vahatak 1 October 2013 18: 21 New
          0
          Our desire is one thing, reality is another. I also don’t like everything (to put it mildly) in the Americans, but they are there and they’re not going to leave.
    4. StolzSS
      StolzSS 1 October 2013 14: 54 New
      0
      Very simple. Either the Taliban will do what the Secretary General says, or the Chinese comrades will stubbornly kill the Taliban in batches, or do you doubt ??? Then yourself, think about why the Chinese are ceremonial with the Taliban if they need to prove to everyone their steepness, after all, Chinese special forces caught a gang abroad and then executed on their territory ... hi
  2. Lindon
    Lindon 1 October 2013 09: 16 New
    +6
    Did India and Pakistan forget?
    The Taliban and the IMU live - because they are supported and financed.
    The USA, like the USSR, is not able to block oxygen to the Mujahideen.
    The Taliban is used by the United States as a pretext for a presence in the region. Putting your bases at the junction of China and Russia is a strategic position.
    1. Scorpio
      Scorpio 1 October 2013 11: 34 New
      -2
      I recall how China and America financed and armed these Mujahideen against the USSR. The Americans have already received thanks from Allah for helping; the turn of the Chinese has come.
      1. Guun
        Guun 1 October 2013 13: 57 New
        +2
        Quote: Scorpio
        Americans have already received thanks from Allah for helping thanks

        What does God have to do with it? In any religion, you can say - go kill for God so wants to use people at the same time, although in all religions killing is a mortal sin. Why does God need 10% of your money? Is he poor? Or did people find such a business?
        1. Scorpio
          Scorpio 1 October 2013 14: 05 New
          -2
          Quote: Guun
          What does God have to do with it?

          Oh, I just don’t want to offend the feelings of believing fanatics, and if they say that it is the will of Allah to cut the throats of Russians and Americans, then so be it.
          1. Guun
            Guun 1 October 2013 15: 43 New
            +6
            The difference between a fanatic and an ordinary believer is great - but this cannot be understood with your intellect. If you were smarter and more well-read, such nonsense would not have written. Well then, what's the difference between you and those Christians who love adult children and sodomy like Europe? If you think like you, then no, you are the same as them, since you do not see the difference so obvious.
            Quote: Scorpio
            then so be it.

            So be it.
            1. Scorpio
              Scorpio 1 October 2013 15: 49 New
              -2
              Quote: Guun
              The difference between a fanatic and an ordinary believer is great

              You will not believe! The difference between each person is so great that every person can invent his own religion and kill in the name of it.
              But why did you start telling me about the difference between a goat and a donkey, I did not understand.
              1. Guun
                Guun 1 October 2013 18: 35 New
                +3
                Oooh I tell you about Vasya and you about Fedor. The fanatic, does not know his religions, blindly goes to the invoker and does not listen to REASON whether it is good for him or not to care - his Holiness told him - he did and is glad to think that it’s for killing ordinary people, and in the majority they kill brothers of faith (who say that it’s not right - they call him a heretic and a bullet in the forehead - for the truth). But an ordinary believer who knows his religion and blindly will not follow anyone horribly — or he can distinguish lies from truth in his religions. Looks like you and xer from the little finger can not be distinguished, deplorably.
                1. Scorpio
                  Scorpio 1 October 2013 21: 36 New
                  +1
                  Quote: Guun
                  you and xer from the little finger can not be distinguished

                  And I look, you often compare them: overgrown or not?)))
                  Quote: Guun
                  I tell you about Vasya and you about Fedor.

                  Exactly. I mean that in Afghanistan, in the name of Allah, people have been slaughtering their whole lives and Russia is not going to meddle there anymore, and you tell me about fanatics and religious people. And all this in the topic "who gets Central Asia: America in Russia or China." You write very much on the topic and the main thing is not wasted because after your words I will see clearly and go to teach the Koran.
    2. Firstvanguard
      Firstvanguard 2 October 2013 07: 52 New
      +2
      The USA, like the USSR, is not able to block oxygen to the Mujahideen.

      The Taliban and the IMU live - because they are supported and financed.

      You write in the correct sequence wink It is no secret to anyone that the bastard itself finances alnusra, the Taliban and other Alkaids. Benladen by the way a CIA officer by the way bully
  3. poccinin
    poccinin 1 October 2013 09: 20 New
    +6
    the border must be strengthened with Afghanistan. mine fields. video cameras. drones. to develop an intelligence network.
    1. RUSS
      RUSS 1 October 2013 09: 29 New
      +2
      The Sith correctly noticed, mined everything where possible.
      1. vahatak
        vahatak 1 October 2013 12: 00 New
        +2
        There is one problem. Tajiks and Uzbeks live in northern Afghanistan. Few people want to fence themselves off from their fellow tribesmen. It would be tempting to unite them, but for this a lot of forces and means are needed.
        1. Essenger
          Essenger 1 October 2013 13: 00 New
          +5
          Quote: vahatak
          Tajiks live in northern Afghanistan


          There are more Tajiks in Afghanistan than in Tajikistan itself)
          1. vahatak
            vahatak 1 October 2013 18: 23 New
            0
            That's it. And if some Tajik leader decides to unite the people in one state? Here the rustle begins. Yugoslavia will seem like a child’s game.
    2. IS-80
      IS-80 1 October 2013 11: 27 New
      0
      Quote: poccinin
      the border must be strengthened with Afghanistan. mine fields. video cameras. drones. to develop an intelligence network.


      It has long been necessary. And not only with Afghanistan. We have it almost all at all as a passage yard.
  4. domokl
    domokl 1 October 2013 09: 31 New
    +5
    Once I knew this region quite well. From the inside. And after reading the opinions of experts, it was established in one. Everyone is pushing us, the Chinese, and the Americans to invest in the region. Such blackmail, you are in us, then we will be fine with you. Do not invest, we will not be responsible for anything. Drugs and extremities will go through us in vain.
    It’s clear that the United States will not leave the region. It’s clear that the Russian Federation will not leave, the stump is clear. The PRC needs markets and they will fit in it does not understand only penny ...
    But there is still India. And the main struggle in 5-10 years will be just in the top three of the RF-PRC-India. The USA will understand even in the Middle East
    1. Lindon
      Lindon 1 October 2013 09: 36 New
      +4
      Money does not go to the region, but deposits that are in the region.
      They don’t distribute food to the poor, they drill and dig here. That's where the money goes.
      When they begin to pump resources, they will pay field commanders as in Africa so as not to touch geologists.
      1. domokl
        domokl 1 October 2013 10: 32 New
        +2
        Quote: Lindon
        Here they don’t give food to the poor, here they drill and dig

        Can you name the deposits that are being developed, not just in words? Not only Russia, but also somebody else?
        The problem is that resources are developed only in Turkmenistan and at their own expense. The rest are blackmailed by drug trafficking. Everyone understands that power in these countries is alive only thanks to the Russian military and Russia, as the Gaster’s place of work ...
        1. Lindon
          Lindon 1 October 2013 14: 51 New
          0
          Of all countries, only Turkmenistan? See oil and gas production in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
          What am the Russian military doing outside my country? Who called them to thank? Afghans did not send invitations to Brezhnev and Bush.
          The United States also says - as soon as the troops are withdrawn - power will collapse. After leaving the USSR, Najibula still calmly ruled - only the USA was against it and was hanged a year later.
        2. Lindon
          Lindon 1 October 2013 15: 08 New
          +1
          There are answers on China's money in the region http://www.centrasia.ru/news.php?st=1380552660
  5. Essenger
    Essenger 1 October 2013 09: 33 New
    +4
    Central Asia will be Central Asian
    1. T80UM1
      T80UM1 2 October 2013 07: 24 New
      0
      Here I doubt that while in the Russian Federation state puppets everything will be as it is now, as soon as the national socialist (Nazi) or the international socialist comes to the issue of Central Asia, it will be finally resolved. Here, the primary security problem for Russia to give up Central Asia is to be unprotected from the underbelly of Russia where the main industrial and resource centers are located. I think that it will come to bribery, but they will decide with those who are especially resisting by physical elimination or departments, experience already exists. Not much depends on us here.
  6. Vrungel78
    Vrungel78 1 October 2013 09: 38 New
    +4
    Wanting to restore my good name,
    I don’t remember something when America had a good name. Initially, these were criminals, thieves, killers, lovers of easy money. They slaughtered the local population and occupied the territory of America. This is the beginning of the history of the modern state, and it (history) is unchanged to this day.
    1. smersh70
      smersh70 1 October 2013 09: 44 New
      +3
      Quote: Vrungel78
      Initially, these were criminals, thieves, killers, lovers of easy money

      so probably corrected .... wassat
  7. smersh70
    smersh70 1 October 2013 09: 45 New
    +7
    and cool about China --- good as if cheaper and poorer, a “dragon” with purely eastern wisdom day after day, deal by deal puts the countries of the region on an economic needle, generously changing the shirportreb to minerals ...
    1. GSH-18
      GSH-18 1 October 2013 13: 14 New
      +5
      Chinese horseradish goods, but cheap are the main Chinese weapons of conquering the markets! These products kill the domestic manufacturer on the spot. Instead of a manufacturer, traders are developing in the country. The country is heavily dependent on Chinese consumer goods and becomes dependent on it. It will be very difficult to get out of this pit. Look at what is now being sold in our shopping centers, with a few exceptions, solid China .. It's a shame for a domestic manufacturer ..
      1. Bekzat
        Bekzat 1 October 2013 13: 22 New
        +3
        for GS-18, and that is why the Customs Union was concluded, customs import duties increased in defense of the domestic manufacturer. Although with the entry into the WTO, they began to decline and my opinion is bad.
    2. Mart
      1 October 2013 13: 24 New
      +2
      Quote: smersh70
      but about China famously said --- good, as it were, cheaper yes polovchee, "dragon" with purely eastern wisdom, day after day, deal after deal puts the economic igloo of the countries of the region, generously changing the shirport for minerals ...


      Thank you, comrade. hi
  8. Nayhas
    Nayhas 1 October 2013 09: 49 New
    +4
    As for China, while Washington and Moscow are strategically thinking, as if cheaper and poorer, a “dragon” with purely eastern wisdom day after day, deal by deal puts the countries of the region on the economic needle, generously exchanging the shirportreb for minerals ...

    In my opinion, everything is obvious, Central Asia will be Chinese. Not only that, the next "interventionist" in Afghanistan will be China, perhaps the Chinese will do without military intervention, but they will be there. China helped the Afghans fight against the USSR, then against the United States, it is clear that all this was not in vain, the Americans will leave, if not immediately, but China can wait. China squeezed the United States out of Pakistan with "Sluggish Boots", because once Pakistan was a faithful ally of the United States, now there are only miserable fragments from that union, the US has no chance to return Pakistan, therefore the US Congress allowed to remove all restrictions on the supply of arms to India, India is now an ally of the United States, which seems incredibly glad.
    The article is entitled correctly, but there are too many empty arguments with an absolutely correct conclusion, about which it was worth talking.
    1. vahatak
      vahatak 1 October 2013 12: 04 New
      0
      I agree that China is the most active, and they can only be stopped in alliance with India. No other way.
  9. Sirocco
    Sirocco 1 October 2013 09: 49 New
    +4
    The main thing in Central Asia for the United States is not the notorious corruption in the region,
    My opinion is that these published topics are not the main ones for the United States in Central Asia. All this is an excuse and a no brainer. A pie under the name of Russia is at stake, so they pick up keys for it through these countries. And in the war, as you know, all methods are good, and extemism, and drugs, and other verbiage. It’s high time with the United States to speak their language, and in their territory.
    1. Nayhas
      Nayhas 1 October 2013 09: 52 New
      -2
      Quote: Sirocco
      At stake is a pie named Russia, and here they pick up keys through these countries.

      Come on, Russia is economically dependent on the United States, not to mention the political "elite" of Russia. Regarding Central Asia, the United States has no chance, especially after the loss of Pakistan ...
    2. GSH-18
      GSH-18 1 October 2013 13: 21 New
      +2
      Quote: Sirocco
      And in the war, as you know, all methods are good, and extemism, and drugs, and other verbiage. It’s high time with the United States to speak their language, and in their territory.

      Everything will be, friend. But not all at once yes A little patience.
  10. Altona
    Altona 1 October 2013 10: 08 New
    +1
    I doubt that in the long run someone will be able to dominate militarily in this region, all the leading players have so far buried in their economic and domestic problems ... Well, let the Americans grind their financial, diplomatic and military resources in this region as far as possible longer ... The benefits of the ongoing wars are still blocked by the insatiable financial international with a huge budget deficit, China is still worried about tensions with Japan and Taiwan, as well as the slowdown in its own economy ...
  11. kostya_a
    kostya_a 1 October 2013 10: 22 New
    +1
    Quote: Nayhas
    the US has no chance

    Well, it's too early to broadcast about this. The military bases have not disappeared. Marine Coropus in Afghanistan - 2 bases. In Kyrgyzstan - Manas Air Base - US Air Force Transit Center.
    1. Nayhas
      Nayhas 1 October 2013 11: 27 New
      0
      Quote: kostya_a
      Well, it's too early to broadcast about this. The military bases have not disappeared. Marine Coropus in Afghanistan - 2 bases.

      Military bases alone do not solve anything. Their location depends on local political elites, so whoever influences them more is the one who rules the country.
    2. IS-80
      IS-80 1 October 2013 11: 39 New
      +2
      Quote: kostya_a
      Well, it's too early to broadcast about this. The military bases have not disappeared. Marine Coropus in Afghanistan - 2 bases. In Kyrgyzstan - Manas Air Base - US Air Force Transit Center.


      They surround us with bases around us. And we all retreat and retreat. If Syria is crushed, then Iran will be crushed. And then the fun begins. It was not for nothing that the constantly neutral China vetoed resolutions on Syria. They feel that they are also approaching their borders.
      1. Nayhas
        Nayhas 1 October 2013 12: 08 New
        +3
        Quote: IS-80
        They surround us with bases around us. And we all retreat and retreat.

        For some reason, you think that the threat comes from military bases, they say that surrounds us, everything is gone. I believe that the threat comes from whose citizenship the children of our officials have and where they have their funds and real estate. For example, the deputy of the State. Duma Rodnina daughter lives in the United States and has the appropriate citizenship. The former governor of the Perm Territory Chirkunov, his wife and two children have Swiss citizenship. This is just what surfaced in my memory, there are many examples. If the country's political elite does not connect its future with their country, then no military bases are needed ...
        1. smile
          smile 1 October 2013 17: 15 New
          +1
          Nayhas
          Look, my parents and brother, for example, Lithuanian citizenship, and what, now you will not let me into the Government? And why would it be, what am I worse than you, for example? :)))

          The fact that Rodnina gave birth to a daughter from an American makes her less patriotic? While the deputy acts in favor of Russia, I do not care who his relatives are .... I am more annoyed by the number of athletes in the State Duma, I doubt that there is much benefit from them.

          Although, of course, there is nothing good when an official is connected with foreign states, which can be put pressure on him from the other side ... but have you not noticed a number of measures gradually stopping this threat? Or do you basically don’t see everything that the authorities are doing is useful and right?
          1. Nayhas
            Nayhas 1 October 2013 17: 42 New
            +2
            Quote: smile
            Although, of course, there is nothing good when an official is connected with foreign states, which can be put pressure on him from the other side ...

            Not in this case. It’s just that a person whose family over the hill a priori does not care about what is happening here, except for access to the cash flow, he is no longer interested in anything.
            Quote: smile
            but didn’t you notice a series of measures gradually stopping this threat? Or do you basically don’t see everything that the authorities are doing is useful and right?

            I see only measures to harbor this disgrace. If earlier officials did not conceal their “interests” in countries that were reproached from the rostrum, now they have begun to transfer to their wives, children ... How did Shuvalov do business through his wife, and continues to change?
            1. smile
              smile 1 October 2013 18: 55 New
              +2
              Nayhas
              Can I answer figuratively? Look, we have prostitution. And it will never be eradicated to the end. But it was not legalized, and therefore it is still less than where it is legalized. If they allow it, then crowds will go into the industry — for psychological reasons — the very concept of “legally” implies, in accordance with morality .... well, so, we have begun to prohibit prostitution among deputies ... :))) Believe me, this is really serious step.
  12. Ihrek
    Ihrek 1 October 2013 10: 23 New
    0
    Most of the things in the world are done for money. In CA especially. Whoever pays more money is the bigger brother.
  13. Asan Ata
    Asan Ata 1 October 2013 11: 05 New
    10
    In my opinion, the role of Kazakhstan in geopolitics is borderland. Therefore, so did the shares in investments, participation in unions and trade. Too large a territory, too large a border with Russia, too much hatred of China, too much distrust of the United States, and too many ties with Russia - all this gives the basis for Nazarbayev’s policy to maintain balanced balance. The Kirghiz are very militant guys, they hate the Chinese more than ours, greatly regret the departure of Russians, Tajiks and Uzbeks for the fighters they do not see, but they are fragmented, many nonhumans surfaced, there is no money. But the mountains run no worse than the Taliban, and if anything, they tear off their eggs. Tajiks are a completely amorphous entity and will soon be completely absorbed by either Afghanistan or China, which is more likely. The Uzbeks are waiting for their color revolution, but they will not wait. Instead of Islam, Islam will come instead of a steep kid. Uzbeks have always been musapirs, even with grandmothers, the nature of this. They will endure power forever. Most likely, in the foreseeable future, Uzbekistan will be a stable prison for Uzbeks. Here in this scenario, the SA draw. hi
    1. T80UM1
      T80UM1 2 October 2013 07: 26 New
      0
      I do not see any difference between the Kyrgyz and Kazakhs in terms of militancy, Tajiks agree not warriors, I don’t know the Uzbeks to appreciate them that way.
      1. Qazaq
        Qazaq 12 October 2013 19: 35 New
        0
        Asan, you even arranged everything so cool. I do not agree with you. Finally, the Russian spirit, Russia smells of your speeches. Russia is very complex in front of Europe and is trying to tie seriously with the SA. She understands that in no way will she win the fight for the SA neither with China nor with the USA. The Russians themselves (namely the people) do not want this. Russians in general are people who live by the principles - what I want this hour, then I turn this hour too. Logic is not what distinguishes Russia from among countries. The Kyrgyz are finally not even guys. Russians and Kyrgyz are finally similar as twin brothers. Lazy, boastful, cowardly and greedy for money. Especially the Kyrgyz. On the contrary, I put Tajiks and Uzbeks high. Many so “coolly" judge Uzbeks and Tajiks from above. But everyone will agree that it takes about an hour or two to build a regiment, a division of Uzbeks and Tajiks. And collect the Russians and Kyrgyz. How the rams will scatter, and besides, each ram has a lot of self-conceit and general opinion. And what is an army? - The army is DISCIPLINE, UNIT. I think that Uzbeks and Tajiks can smash both Russians and Kyrgyz in such a way that they can really call them GODS, who descended from heaven in chariots. Cowards are often judged by such categories as - “where not to get it”, “God was on their side”, “we are brave, but they turned out to be braver than us”, “we are smart, but they turned out to be smarter than us”. In short, they love to wave their fists and shout after good lyuley. Asan finally can’t paint you with such an arrogant, pro-Russian opinion about the Uzbeks - Kyrgyzstan YES, there is almost no doubt about his future. But here is Uzbekistan. This brandy will still explode. Remember my words. And Tajiks are developing competently - although they think they are Europeans - but they are now second in terms of investment in CA, after Kazakhstan. In general, there is potential. But in general, I think that the CA will remain Central Asian, that is, ours. We, too, were not sewn with bast, and were not born yesterday, and not made with a finger. Although Russians judge us like that, the opinion of Russians is not that someone is listening.
  14. Bekzat
    Bekzat 1 October 2013 11: 33 New
    +7
    I welcome everyone that I did not understand the article, in everything that is written in this article, the only thing is clear that the Amers want to stir up on the territory of the CA the same as they did in the Middle East and the Arab world. And it scares me. Recently, I notice a lot of bearded people in the city began to walk. The mosque near the house is bursting with sermons, which you notice, before they didn’t do it before the repair, there was only Namaz five times a day and that’s it, and now almost a whole day of sermon. I do not like all this. angry
    1. Ram chandra
      Ram chandra 1 October 2013 12: 25 New
      +5
      We - Kazakhs, indigenous people - need to actively rub into our brains that religion is evil. Especially such a zombie. How many did not communicate with bearded men - I did not hear a single clever thought from them. Only crazy eyes and absolute confidence that you need to go to the toilet with your left foot, speak incomprehensible words in Elvish and this will make you then 100 virgins after death. At the level of development, they are like primitive Papuans.
      You go to the mosque, if you really want to - for a wedding, for the 12-13th anniversary, for a funeral. All - no longer needed. If it were my will, in general, how Stalin would have acted. To hell with religion. From her so much evil and misfortune.
      1. ImpKonstantin
        ImpKonstantin 1 October 2013 12: 56 New
        +5
        Not from religion so much misfortune and evil, but from human ignorance
        1. smile
          smile 1 October 2013 17: 23 New
          +5
          ImpKonstantin
          Unfortunately, too often religion and ignorance go hand in hand, too often one breeds the other. The point of view of Bekzat and Ram Chandra is closer to me, although, of course, I would not prohibit anything, this will only aggravate the situation ...
      2. Marek Rozny
        Marek Rozny 1 October 2013 17: 02 New
        +7
        Absolutely all of my personal acquaintances, Kazakhs, who hit religion, after a few years gradually moved away from this topic. But before that, they were directly ardent religious people. Of course, now their level of religiosity is slightly higher than that of the ordinary Kazakh, but not to the point of fanaticism.
        There are exceptions when a Kazakh may be obsessed with religion for years, but most Kazakhs calm down sooner or later.
        But those who, during the period of religious zeal, cross the line between faith and aggressive behavior towards other people, must be fucked hard.

        The main feature of the Kazakh religious worldview is the inability to think theologically abstractly. Religion, falling into the Kazakh head, does not develop, is not conceived, but is accepted as it was presented. Arabs, Iranians, Sarts, Tajiks gave Islam a bunch of theologians. Steppe residents, however, have not been able at all for all these centuries to give the Islamic world at least one lying theologian. An Arab and a Tajik will talk for a long time about the causes, consequences, relationships in religion, and the Kazakh is not able to give birth to thoughts about religion. Retell what he was told - he can. He will be able to defend these beliefs. But to reflect on all this otherworldly - he is not able. We have a more practical Motsk. We are more interested in earthly things. We are interested in the past and future on earth than the afterlife. All that a Kazakh needs to know about life after death is that he has Aruah defenders, and if he dies he will become an Aruah for his descendants on earth. The topic of a hypothetical paradise or hell of Kazakhs is not of interest. The main thing is that the stomach is full, the woman is complaisant, the spirits of the ancestors are happy, and so that she looks cool in front of the neighbors. In this strictly outlined framework of the Turkic-Mongolian worldview, religion is barely fit. And even with just one foot.
        1. Zymran
          Zymran 1 October 2013 17: 13 New
          +3
          Well, what about Shakarim, Mashkhur Zhusup or Khalifa Altai, the person who translated the Koran into Kazakh.
          1. Marek Rozny
            Marek Rozny 1 October 2013 17: 58 New
            +5
            Shakarim is hardly a theologian. Yes, he knew the Arabic language (for the educated people of his time - that was the norm), he traveled to Mecca, but he did not leave any theological trace in his work. But I can cite a translation of one of his poems:
            Condemning me from the side
            Believing that I belong to the elite of the rich,
            Despising me and not wanting to talk heart to heart,
            A young tribe flees from me.
            A rumor among the people about me: that, they say, "survived from the mind."
            The mullahs insisted that I was a violator of the canons of religion.
            There were also those who were reproached for "the ascension of the past, obsolete."
            I have now remained naked in front of the whole world.
            Everybody moved, I'm lonely
            Tell me, my people, than I didn’t please you,
            And what trouble have I brought you?
            After all, my comrades are only pencil and paper.


            Mashkhur Zhusip is considered a religious figure among the Kazakhs, but he is more a wonderful ethnographer and enlightener than a religious person (although he had a religious education). He brought nothing to Islamic theology, although he was a deeply religious person. However, for the Kazakhs this is an occasion to call a person a "religious figure")

            Khalifa Altai is also a very devout person. But he did not bring anything to the science of Islam, like the other Kazakhs. His main merit is an attempt to make Islam more understandable for Kazakhs, in connection with which he translated the Koran into Kazakh. In fact, he thereby emphasized the right of the Kazakhs to pray to Allah in Kazakh. (I think that Khalifa Altai himself would not agree with my opinion, but in fact it is).

            All these people whom I respect have not brought to the Islamic world what theologians usually bring. These Kazakh philosophers tried only to convey the meaning of the Arab religion in an accessible form for the Kazakhs. And apparently, the Kazakhs did not become more religious anyway.

            Well, we do not know how to develop religion. The Kazakh head is a swamp for all religions that fall there. Religion there can only become stiff in the form in which it fell into this head. And this is at best. It will not develop there.

            Why is Kazakh Allah or Christ, who interfere with asking the late father for help? Why should a Kazakh know thoroughly the Arab religion, which considers horsemeat to be a makrooh (illicit food)? Why should the Kazakh argue about which branch of Islam is more correct when, in fact, all its religiosity is reduced to several everyday rites?
            In general, Kazakh Islam is in fact not Islam at all, but the ancient Türkic Tengrian (and even Scythian-Sakian) customs, slightly camouflaged under the Arab faith.
            On Friday, we bake cakes so that our ancestors are satisfied, and we think that this is Islam. In the new apartment we throw sweets and coins ("checkers") and think that this is Islam. We celebrate the vernal equinox and believe that this is Islam. We tie red ribbons on the exhaust pipes of cars or pieces of cloth on tree branches and believe that this is Islam. We make houses on graves in cemeteries and are simply holy convinced that this is Islam ...
            More often than not, we do what our ancestors did before the advent of Islam. When Arabs see “our Islam,” their hair stands on end.
            1. Bekzat
              Bekzat 1 October 2013 18: 12 New
              +5
              for Marek Rosney, everyone wrote correctly, believe dear forum users, Kazakhs are still doing all this, although it’s not accepted according to Islam, for example, my friend’s grandfather died, they buried according to KAZAKH customs, you can’t drink according to Islam, BUT DRINKED AND CHAINED GRANDFAN- FRONT. And my wife, a history teacher, says that Kazakhs have never been ardent Muslims. + Dear you !!!
              1. Marek Rozny
                Marek Rozny 1 October 2013 18: 26 New
                +8
                When I buried my father, I wanted to do everything in a Muslim way, of course. But there was a dispute with the mullah. He tried to forbid me from putting his military uniform in the grave next to my father. Mullah said that this is not possible in Islam, and I flushed up and said that my father would only be glad if he was next to his officer uniform, which he wore all his life and was proud of it. When he blurted out that the ancestors didn’t do this, I reminded him that throughout our history, our ancestors, on the contrary, have always put personal items in the graves.
                On the grave stone on the grave of his father, a crescent moon, the name of the clan, and the emblem of the Internal Troops of Kazakhstan, in which he served, were embossed. I think my father is happy. His opinion is more important to me than the Arab customs.
                And if it seems to someone that this is a mishmash of everything and everything - well, such is our head - we were good communists, and at the same time we were circumcised. We consider ourselves Muslims, but at the same time belonging to our family is more important for us than belonging to the Ummah. We recognize that we are not so hot as Muslims, and do not want to be faithful to the extent that Arabs do, but we will tear the British flag to someone who is non-Muslim and says something offensive about our religion.
                Incompatible we are full of desires -
                In one hand - the Quran, the other - on a glass.
                And so we live under the blue sky -
                Semi-Atheists and Semi-Muslims.

                Omar Khayyam
              2. Marek Rozny
                Marek Rozny 1 October 2013 18: 33 New
                +7
                Quote: Bekzat
                my friend’s grandfather died, they buried according to KAZAKH customs, you shouldn’t drink according to Islam, BUT DRINKED AND MEMORED THE GRANDFATHER.

                Both of my front-line grandfathers were deeply religious. Mom’s father was considered a mullah in his aul - he owned Arabic, knew the Koran by heart, observed all the canons he knew and prayed 5 times a day. But on May 9, they were sure to drink a glass, remembering the past. Arab's brain will break if he imagines a mullah who drinks vodka laughing And in the village everyone perceived this normally.
                Z.Y. And the Arabs are surprised that we have mullahs that are not attached to any mosque.
                1. alone
                  alone 1 October 2013 21: 02 New
                  +5
                  Quote: Marek Rozny
                  Both of my front-line grandfathers were deeply religious. Mom’s father was considered a mullah in his aul - he owned Arabic, knew the Koran by heart, observed all the canons he knew and prayed 5 times a day. But on May 9, they were sure to drink a glass, remembering the past. Arab's brain will break if he imagines a mullah who drinks vodka


                  wassat 14 Arabs studied with me in the same group, they drank vodka better than me.))
        2. Marek Rozny
          Marek Rozny 1 October 2013 17: 18 New
          +8
          Another characteristic feature of the steppe mentality. The descendants of the nomads still cannot explain what Tengrianism is))) Formally, this is religion, but in fact it is rather a worldview))) Until now, none of the Türks or Mongols has been able to clothe the essence and rules of the Tengrian faith in strict canons. It’s even impossible to say with confidence: “this is permitted in Tengrianism, but this is forbidden.” Too much freedom for the steppe man, as he wants, does at a certain moment. And even God (Tengri, Kudai, Allah) cannot order the steppe and dictate any commandments to him. This Jews and Arabs, Byzantines and Hindus needed a Shepherd-Judge-Defender-Teacher. But the Kazakh, Tatar, Kalmyk or Buryat need the earthly or heavenly Leader only in the rare moments of their lives.
          There is such an anecdote:
          - What is your relationship with god?
          - I do not meddle in his affairs, he does not meddle with me.

          I think this is about the Kazakhs.
          1. Bekzat
            Bekzat 1 October 2013 17: 35 New
            +6
            I agree with Marek Rosney.
        3. Ram chandra
          Ram chandra 1 October 2013 22: 50 New
          +3
          Exactly! The spirits of our ancestors should be closer to us than the fictional nishtyaks of paradise, or the fear of hell. They really existed!
        4. T80UM1
          T80UM1 2 October 2013 07: 33 New
          +6
          I do not agree Marek, remember the massacre in Taraz when the Islamist scumbag 7 shot or the massacre in the Aksai gorge, there are stupid scumbags who are ready for the sake of religion to send people to the next world. I looked at this Khairov whom our specialists caught in Kyrgyzstan not a single thought in his eyes, stupid cattle, and his wife walks in a hijab, which leads to thoughts ... In Uzbekistan, they created for bearded ghettos and the problem of extremism disappeared by itself ... What and I wish you.
          1. Marek Rozny
            Marek Rozny 2 October 2013 17: 01 New
            +1
            Quote: T80UM1
            remember the massacre in Taraz when the Islamist scumbag 7 shot or the massacre in the Aksai gorge, there are stupid scumbags who are ready to send people to the next world for the sake of religion.

            exceptions are always there. Unfortunately.
        5. Qazaq
          Qazaq 12 October 2013 19: 50 New
          +2
          I'd love to believe it. That the Kazakhs are not distinguished by the fury of perception of Islam. Maybe I'm wrong, but the Kazakhs are also the same in vodka. Most often they drink vodka when they are young, but then they somehow “quietly knit” it so quietly. The most important thing in this period is not to fly into any criminal history. Vodka is what contributes greatly to this. Although of course they are very anxious about Islam and vodka. I hope that all this is youth. But this "flaw" is quickly passing.
      3. Marek Rozny
        Marek Rozny 1 October 2013 18: 55 New
        +6
        Quote: Ram Chandra
        and absolute confidence that you need to go to the toilet with your left foot

        Somehow I “killed” one Algerian when he said that when I went to the toilet I don’t take the tummy off my neck (there I have both the tumbler painted by my grandfather and the mini-quran my father gave me). He almost lost his mind at such sacrilege.
        And I told him that if Allah exists, then I would like him (and the Quran) to protect me in the toilet as well)))) Well, if Allah disdains me to protect me in a stinking place, then what for do I need it?
        I understand that this sounds very naive, but my logic is simple - either God is with me everywhere, or let him not come to me with his rules of conduct at all. Especially in the toilet.
        If the Qur'an is a holy book written by Allah, then what will become of it from the fact that I fulfilled my need without removing the fog from my neck? And if it is contaminated in a figurative sense - then what is divine then? All religious dogmas are broken about my mundane Kazakpay logic. Therefore, it makes no difference to us with which foot we should go to the toilet, and no matter which god is better - Muslim, Christian or Indian.
        Personally, I even prayed to Allah in a Buddhist monastery, when I missed my home far from home and was hard on my soul (although I never prayed in a mosque laughing ) I think if God exists, then it does not matter to him where I pray to him - in a mosque, in the steppe, in the toilet or brothel.
        1. Semurg
          Semurg 1 October 2013 19: 29 New
          +5
          An Algerian would probably have had enough "condrat" if I had seen our ones where after "amen" they start pouring alcohol, or vice versa, after taking alcohol they start giving "baht" and doing "amen."
        2. Ram chandra
          Ram chandra 1 October 2013 22: 56 New
          +2
          10/10! Burns - ten out of ten!
      4. FRIGATE2
        FRIGATE2 1 October 2013 23: 38 New
        +4
        Quote: Ram Chandra
        100 virgins after death.

        72 promise)))
        Quote: Ram Chandra
        At the level of development, they are like primitive Papuans.

        Well, what can you do, their operating system was invented when the Internet and servers for updating were not, so the old version of the firmware remained and the programming language was lost)))
        Quote: Ram Chandra
        what would Stalin do

        from one ideology to another? One must be wiser and not act like Stalin.
        Quote: Ram Chandra
        From her so much evil and misfortune.

        Any traditional religion does not include as much bad as you think, on the contrary, religion is useful to many, since 95% of people are really unable to think analytically and a competent ideology is needed to control them.
        In general, the best thing is enlightenment of science and education to the masses of people.

        No religion stands up to criticism
  15. individual
    individual 1 October 2013 11: 44 New
    +3
    It’s possible to add to the question mark: "After 2014, power in Central Asia will become Taliban"?
  16. vahatak
    vahatak 1 October 2013 12: 07 New
    +1
    I think that they forgot about Iran, which of course is not ready to compete with the superpowers, but it has good prospects both in Afghanistan and in the SA. By the way, this is the only state with historical and cultural ties in the region.
    1. Essenger
      Essenger 1 October 2013 13: 11 New
      +6
      Quote: vahatak
      I think that they forgot about Iran, which of course is not ready to compete with the superpowers, but it has good prospects both in Afghanistan and in the SA.


      Iran has influence in Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. No more
      1. vahatak
        vahatak 1 October 2013 18: 13 New
        -1
        Quote: Essenger
        Iran has influence in Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. No more


        Yes, of course, but for a start this is not enough. And if one of the global players leaves, then there will be more space and then ......
        1. Essenger
          Essenger 1 October 2013 18: 26 New
          +3
          Quote: vahatak
          . And if one of the global players leaves, then there will be more space and then ......


          I am about the same, compared with the three, Iran’s influence is negligible.
      2. alone
        alone 1 October 2013 21: 03 New
        +2
        and this is not even called influence. Do not forget that, in Iran, Shiite Islam, and in the SA are mostly Sunnis.
  17. na76
    na76 1 October 2013 13: 05 New
    +3
    Quote: vahatak
    I think that they forgot about Iran, which of course is not ready to compete with the superpowers, but it has good prospects both in Afghanistan and in the SA. By the way, this is the only state with historical and cultural ties in the region.


    Is that the only thing? But does Russia have any historical or cultural ties in this region?
    1. vahatak
      vahatak 1 October 2013 18: 18 New
      +2
      Russia conquered Central Asia 150 years ago, and Iran has been present there 2500 years. Muslims live there, as in Iran. Tajiks and the population of Afghanistan are Iranian peoples. There are cultural ties with Russia so far, but after a couple of tingles there will be nothing left of them, since these ties are very superficial. The only exceptions are Russians in Kazakhstan, but Russia has never used this resource.
      1. Essenger
        Essenger 1 October 2013 18: 36 New
        +3
        Quote: vahatak
        The only exceptions are Russians in Kazakhstan, but Russia has never used this resource.


        You're right good

        By the way, children from 0-10 years old 80% Kazakhs, no more than 16% Russian

        The average age of Russians in the KZ is 47 years. Mostly retirees or people near retirement age.
  18. Yuri Y.
    Yuri Y. 1 October 2013 13: 54 New
    +2
    US military bases in Central Asian states can be seen as barriers to extremism.

    A controversial statement if we recall all the color revolutions, and the increase in drug trafficking with the presence of the United States in Avgan (the economic base of extremism).
    What is the fear of US penetration into Iran then, the ring around Russia is generally closed.
    The United States plays an important role in the balance of power in the region. As soon as the Russian economy began to grow, Russia began to try to restore the old colonies, which were previously part of the circle of influence of the USSR. CSTO, the Customs Union and the Eurasian Union are examples of such activities.

    It’s charming, the United States is silver-free and “democratizing,” while Russia maliciously restores the colonies.
  19. Stepnogorets
    Stepnogorets 1 October 2013 13: 55 New
    +1
    What if the West will also finance the “Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Taliban, Hizbut Tahrir”, what will we do in Central Asia ?!
    1. Semurg
      Semurg 1 October 2013 19: 34 New
      +3
      keep the border and push inside, if possible, help neighbors fight this misfortune.
  20. Standard Oil
    Standard Oil 1 October 2013 14: 02 New
    +3
    Yes, it has been clear for a long time that US policy cannot come up with anything new, divide and rule, but look for oil, Machiavelli would die of boredom, continuously over the past hundred years, the same record.
  21. Marek Rozny
    Marek Rozny 1 October 2013 19: 39 New
    +5
    Now I will give my answer to the question "Whose Central Asia will be." No one’s. Even the Uzbeks, who are regularly scolded that they are "bent under the Americans," are actually on their own mind. Roughly speaking, this is a bazaar nation, their priorities will change depending on the solvency of partners, but this does not mean that they will be forever attached to someone. Kyrgyz and Kazakhs will never fundamentally tolerate yokes on their neck. Tajiks are a part of the Persian world; Dushanbe and Tehran are ready to send their troops to help each other (at least that is what they say at official meetings). And Tajiks will never allow an American base to exist on their territory, because thereby a threat to their Iranian brothers. Turkmens are in themselves "in a mathematical cube."
    China deeply does not care before the hypothetical takeover of Central Asia. He is only interested in access to hydrocarbon resources and transport corridors. And the Chinese do not make a secret of this (unlike Europe, Russia and the United States, which like verbiage on abstract topics). The Chinese are not even interested in their cultural influence in the Central Asian countries (although they are convinced that the neighbors themselves will sooner or later succumb to the charm of Chinese culture, but they themselves do absolutely nothing for this - they are too convinced of the attractiveness of their culture). Beijing is pure business. We need money, they need oil and gas and roads to export goods to more attractive markets.
    As for Russia, the Central Asians will not perceive themselves as part of a kind of "Russian world", which many in Russia fantasize about. The fact that we speak Russian and know all the films with Nikulin’s participation does not make us the “Russian world”, just as my knowledge of English and films with Bruce Willis does not make me part of the American world.
    Russia is our eternal neighbor, partner, ally. This is another matter. And do not confuse the desire of the Kyrgyz or Tajiks "be with Russia" with the concept "be under Russia". And do not forget that in addition to Russia, the Kyrgyz still wants to be with the Kazakh, and the Tajik with the Uzbek. Not “under,” not “above,” but “c.”
    If the Kyrgyz allowed the American to open a military base on his land, this does not mean that the Kyrgyz is supposedly "under America." If a Tajik grows a beard, this does not mean that the Taliban took possession of his thoughts. Is it difficult for some of you to understand that other countries have their own culture, their own preferences, their own interests, which they are trying to observe? What makes you think that Central Asia is American, Chinese or Russian? It was Russian during the voluntary Kazakh / Kyrgyz annexation and armed seizure of the Uzbek / Turkmen lands in the Romanov era. Are Russia, China or the United States going to attack these countries now? Or do the inhabitants of these countries express a desire to become new areas of these countries? Not. That's all.
    1. Semurg
      Semurg 1 October 2013 19: 58 New
      +6
      The Russian elite often has the idea that the world is multipolar and multifaceted, but on the “Russian street” the thought is strongly developed either with us (implied by us) or against us, such a black and white perception of the world around us.
  22. Kazbek
    Kazbek 1 October 2013 21: 26 New
    +7
    If, after the collapse of the USSR, they did not take shape, then even more so. Kazakhs are not pious, that's for sure, we even mix Tengrian customs.
  23. The comment was deleted.
  24. Nomad
    Nomad 2 October 2013 06: 29 New
    +5
    Quote: Marek Rozny
    Another characteristic feature of the steppe mentality. The descendants of the nomads still can not explain what Tengrianism is))) Formally - this is religion, but in fact - rather the attitude)))

    In this regard, I recommend D. Madigozhin "Kok-tor. Logic of Heavenly Law." It seems to me that he managed to explain the essence of ethics (religion? Worldview?) Of nomads quite well.
  25. Nomad
    Nomad 2 October 2013 06: 34 New
    +3
    Quote: Marek Rozny
    Personally, even in a Buddhist monastery, I prayed to Allah, when I was homesick and far from my homeland and was hard on my soul (although I never prayed in a mosque). I think if God exists, then it does not matter to him where I pray to him - in a mosque, in the steppe, in the toilet or brothel.

    God has no religion. M. Gandhi
    The distance to the sky is the same everywhere. Mengu Timur, Khan of the Golden Horde
  26. Nomad
    Nomad 2 October 2013 06: 39 New
    +3
    Quote: Marek Rozny
    And if it seems to someone that this is a mishmash of everything and everything - well, such is our head - we were good communists, and at the same time we were circumcised. We consider ourselves Muslims, but at the same time belonging to our family is more important for us than belonging to the Ummah. We recognize that we are not so hot as Muslims, and do not want to be faithful to the extent that Arabs do, but we will tear the British flag to someone who is non-Muslim and says something offensive about our religion.

    My late grandmother was also a believer. Moreover, when I was sick, she set fire to the thread, and while she was smoldering, she drove it around me and it seems (I do not remember exactly) she was whispering something. It was also something pre-Islamic. The elder sister said that the mullah would have been hit enough if he had the opportunity to contemplate such a treatment. laughing
  27. Nomad
    Nomad 2 October 2013 06: 42 New
    +2
    Quote: Semurg
    An Algerian would probably have had enough "condrat" if I had seen our ones where after "amen" they start pouring alcohol, or vice versa, after taking alcohol they start giving "baht" and doing "amen."

    Wine is forbidden
    but there are four buts:
    When, who, with whom
    and moderately drinks wine.
    Subject to
    these four conditions
    All sane
    Wine is allowed.
    Omar Khayyam
  28. Nomad
    Nomad 2 October 2013 06: 50 New
    +4
    Quote: Marek Rozny
    In general, Kazakh Islam is in fact not Islam at all, but the ancient Türkic Tengrian (and even Scythian-Sakian) customs, slightly camouflaged under the Arab faith.

    Sometimes it seems to me that the so-called pagans were happier and freer than their descendants, whom the world religions tied up with numerous prohibitions and horror stories. Does religion make people better? I doubt something ... Therefore, I consider the attitude of Kazakhs to religion, which Marek Rozny accurately described, as the most correct from both a practical and spiritual point of view.
    1. FRIGATE2
      FRIGATE2 2 October 2013 10: 31 New
      +5
      Quote: Nomad
      Sometimes it seems to me that the so-called pagans

      From the point of view of Western Eurocentrism, this is Tengrism - paganism, in fact, a single ideology.
      Well, there is no God, no. Neither materially nor spiritually all the more
  29. scientist
    scientist 2 October 2013 13: 35 New
    -5
    Do not think that if the majority is not subject to religious suggestion, then there will be no problems. There will be many more, because this majority loves to eat meat and live beautifully. Corruption, which has penetrated into all areas of life in the CA countries and no worse than extremism, can destroy any state.
    While the United States and the West needed a transit and safe route to Afghanistan, they pretended not to notice the consequences of authoritarian regimes in the CA countries. Now these countries have ceased to be interested in stability in this region. I doubt that the West is happy with the alignment of forces in the Caspian, and Iran will not be left alone, Israel and the Arab sheikhs simply will not allow this. Divide and rule, such a main principle of the victory of the West was in the Cold War. Such he remained now.
    China has been and remains the main consumer of energy resources. He quietly quietly methodically pursues an aggressive policy of economic capture of these countries, naturally with the prospect of political control over the region.
    The only thing that can be opposed to this is to create irreversible processes and mechanisms for the integration of the CA countries, as Europe did. It is clear that politicians fed by the USA and the West will resist, but they can easily be calculated by the presence of foreign accounts.