UNDER STANDARDS GLOBALIZATION
The basis of the model of controlled chaos as a conceptual tool designed to solve problems in the directional coordination and organization of the development of a confrontational spiral in a selected country or group of countries in order to achieve the specified socio-political, military, economic, spatial-geographical characteristics of the target state (or region) , are the provisions of the theory of "controlled chaos" or "controlled instability." In its original version, the theory of chaos was developed mainly in relation to physical or chemical processes, for example, in the work of I. Prigogine and I. Stengers “Order from chaos. New dialogue of the person with the nature ", left in the West in 1979.
However, at the end of the last century, as globalization developed under the auspices of the United States, which required a radical reorganization of the world to the standards of a single superpower, attempts to study the problems of controlled instability in relation to social processes became frequent.
The subordination of world development to managerial impulses emanating from a single center is supposed to be ensured through a targeted impact on the management of the collective activities of people, including all three types of such management: administrative-state (political) management; management of the cultural and ideological sphere; management of the socio-economic sphere. In an unstable world, control in the military-power sphere has acquired special significance.
The model of controlled chaos, which ensures the implementation of impact algorithms across a country or region, is based on the property of instability in the sphere of managing the collective activity of people, which is inherent in all complex structures. In the theory of controlled chaos, the ability of any complex structure (including the modern state) to control and keep chaos within certain limits in the mode of daily functioning is of particular importance. At the same time, in a different mode, for example, in the period of artificially created aggravation, this very holding through positive feedback contributes to the avalanche-like growth of chaos, which ultimately can lead to the disintegration of the system.
As conceived by ideologues, controlled chaos in its effectiveness and consequences can be compared with weapons mass destruction. It uses unconventional, physically non-destructive means of destruction, for which there are no national borders. There is no internationally recognized regulatory framework for countering; controlled chaos technologies are still outside the control of international organizations. There are no scientifically based criteria for control, appropriate indicators that record the state of the situation at different stages of the model.
As applied to the sphere of political governance, the initial positions of the ideology of controlled chaos were developed in the works of Western researchers, for example, Gene Sharp “Nonviolent actions: the study of control over political power” (Oxford, 1968) and some others. Soon, theoretically developed approaches were tested by practice as the ideological basis of the “student revolution” of 1968 in Paris, then during the destabilization of the Warsaw Pact countries, the collapse of the USSR and during a series of orange revolutions at the beginning of the new millennium. Already in 70-s, managed instability technologies are attracting increasing attention from a number of influential political science centers in the West: Rome and then Bilderberg clubs, the Trilateral Commission, thought factories of the Rand Corporation and the Santa Fe Institute. The developed general principles were further concretized and received practical development in the activities of the IMF, the World Bank, and the WTO.
The direct statement of the problem of controlled chaos does not appear on the agenda of the organizations mentioned. For example, this year the meeting of the “shadow world government”, as the Bilderberg club is often called, which brought together 140 people from 20 countries of the world, took place in the usual closed atmosphere. Among the topics on the official list for discussion in Bilderberg-2013 were mentioned the problems of cybercrime, US foreign policy, developments in the Middle East, as well as accelerated growth and job creation in Europe and the USA. The problems are topical, affecting the interests of many serious international players. Apparently, the assessments and recommendations made at the meeting can also serve to develop the situation in certain areas in some parts of the world, including the use of controlled chaos technology for these purposes.
TESTED IN PRACTICE
In modern theoretical developments, quite frankly the goals and objectives of controlled chaos are considered. For example, American Stephen Mann in 1992 described in detail the potential of a new weapon in the magazine of the National Military College in Washington in Chaos Theory and Strategic Thought, in which he combined the theory of controlled chaos with global geopolitical attitudes of the United States. He views controlled chaos as a tool to safeguard US national interests by increasing the exploitation of criticality and creating an environment of controlled instability. The structures of political and military government, the spiritual, economic and social life of the country are subject to chaos. The mechanisms for creating chaos in the interests of self-disorganization and self-disorientation of the target state include promoting liberal democracy and market reforms, raising economic standards and resource needs, preferentially raising living standards of the so-called elites of society, ousting traditional values and ideologies from the public consciousness, reformatting cultural civilization code of the population and the creation of an environment in which various extremist movements feel comfortable of The use of technology-driven chaos attracted the attention of a number of modern domestic researchers: Batchikova S.А., Vasilenko I.А., Lepsky V.Е. and some others.
Managed chaos technologies were successfully used during the collapse of the USSR and the organization of the Warsaw Pact, in the Balkans, and today they operate in Libya, Syria, and Egypt. Recently, Ambassador Sergio Duarte, UN High Representative for Disarmament Affairs (2007 – 2012), spoke frankly about the danger of destabilization in the Middle East region: “The coup in Egypt and the ensuing clashes between opponents and supporters of ousted President Mohammed Mursi led to political chaos in the country. A state of emergency has been introduced. The world community is trying to take measures to stabilize the situation in the country, but all attempts to resolve the situation peacefully are in vain. The fact that, according to the Egyptian scenario, events in other countries of the region can occur and lead to a new wave of instability throughout the Middle East, is causing concern. ” It should be noted that not only the political sphere is disorganized. The economy is destroyed, serious damage is caused to the armed forces of Egypt. Add that while the West demonstrates a virtuoso ability to apply a policy of double standards in evaluating events and developing measures to influence the situation in countries where the situation develops according to controlled chaos scenarios: from direct support of the armed opposition in Syria to rather streamlined comments on the situation in Egypt.
Analysis of the objectives of such actions in relation to the Middle East and North Africa shows that we can talk, for example, about weakening the positions of China, Russia and some other states whose interests are in contradiction with the designs of forces claiming undivided dominance in one of the key regions of the planet . However, the awakened destructive actions of chaos can get out of control, and then the destructive effect of the model will hit the creators with a boomerang.
Conditions are being created for the application of controlled chaos in other regions, including in Central Asia, in the Caucasus. It is important to emphasize that many mechanisms and resources of the model of controlled chaos are formed in advance on the territory of the target state. Some of them are in a mothballed “sleeping” state, some of them operate in quite hidden forms veiled behind seemingly innocent wording.
Using the mechanisms of the model of controlled chaos allows you to organize a targeted impact of the system of propaganda, psychological, informational and other measures coordinated by goals, place and time on “sensitive points” (decision-making centers) of administrative-state (political) management, including the provision of all types of security, socio-economic, cultural and ideological spheres of management. The ultimate goal of such an impact is to focus the development of the policy and economy of the target country on strategically unpromising, dead-end directions, for example, by drawing the economy, finances, science into highly costly and at the same time ineffective programs and projects. A system of measures is being taken to de-industrialize the country, reduce the volume of high-tech productions, purposefully destroy the system of vocational education. As applied to the military-industrial complex of Russia, the top-priority tasks are to slow down the development of modern weapons systems, to achieve irreversible degradation of the national scientific and industrial base, personnel potential, and to reduce the competitiveness of Russian weapons in foreign markets.
WHO EXPRESSES WATER?
The ability of the state to modernize and transfer the country to an innovative path of development is purposefully reduced by updating the system of myths about the supposedly magical ability of the market to resolve all problems, the need to abandon strategic planning for the development of the main sectors of the national economy. It is impossible to resist such myth-making without the involvement of the scientific community in governing the country.
Along with this, the human resources of the target country have a powerful impact. The goal is to distort the foundations of national culture, sow mutual alienation and enmity among the population, strengthen separatist sentiments, create a “fifth column” among the intelligentsia under the flag of various pseudo-opposition movements, make it move in a manner suitable for the other side, fully support, promote and carry out pseudo-reform. Under these conditions, the lack of a carefully thought-out state policy in the field of reforming science and education can have an irreparable negative impact on the quality of human potential.
Special attention is paid to the impact on the youth environment in order to disorient it, introduce false values, transform ideological and ideological attitudes, create conditions for use as a "combustible material" in all kinds of internal conflicts. To do this, use the media, the potential of political parties and youth movements, religious denominations and totalitarian sects. The success of their activities can contribute to the imperfection of educational and educational work, which is often carried out in conditions of vagueness or the complete absence of a unifying national idea. At the same time, attempts to unite the country on the basis of nationalist ideas often give additional destructive dynamics to the processes of controlled chaos and ultimately create the conditions for a split and fragmentation of the state.
An important place is given to the formation in the target country of the organizational basis for the use of external management mechanisms. The main target is the power elite, the leaders of some opposition movements, some religious leaders who are gradually preparing for the "interception" of key management functions and for subsequent actions in accordance with the controlled chaos model algorithms.
Such training programs have been developed and have been successfully used for a number of years by a number of Western universities and foundations. Among them are the World Fellows at Yale University USA, the American structures involved in the "development of democracy and civil society" abroad: the International Republican (IRI) Institute, the US Democratic Institute of International Relations (National Democratic Institute for International Affairs), a pleiad of various foundations - Soros , Goldman, Google, Henry Ford, MacArthur (John and Catherine MacArthur Foundation), who also invest in educating future leaders of countries in the spirit of Western liberal values, American political traditions and economic thought. One of the developers of the concept of the National Endowment for Democracy, A. Weinstein, in the 1991 year, frankly stated: "A lot of what we are doing today, the CIA did 25 years ago."
The ideas of extremism and separatism are trying to instill in their pupils some religious centers, universities and foundations.
Thus, the main target of the model of controlled chaos are the power elites of the target state. Applied technologies allow successful replacement of key players in the elites by pre-prepared and managed candidates. It is these people during the period of artificially created aggravation of the situation that contribute to the avalanche-like increase of chaos, which, ultimately, can lead to the disintegration of the system without the use of military means and the destruction of infrastructure.
One of the basic conditions for the development of a managed chaos situation in the country is the presence of pervasive corruption ties, which, along with the widening gap in incomes of various segments of the population, contributes to undermining the unity of society. Over time, a part of the power elite ceases to link its material interests with the vital interests of the country and the people, concentrates on preserving its material and monetary assets by taking them abroad. Corruption in the armed forces leads to a sharp decline in the country's defense, entails a direct betrayal of a part of the corrupt military elite, which was clearly demonstrated, for example, already in the initial stage of the invasion of Iraq by the coalition forces in 2003.
RUSSIA - MAIN COUNTRY-GOAL
Thus, the main source of hazards, risks, challenges and threats to national security becomes the internal environment of the state, which the diverse destructive arsenal of the model of controlled chaos aims at. From the point of view of the country's development strategy, the atmosphere of chaos and instability created in this way naturally leads to very nontrivial, serious problems related to the preservation of the unity of the state, forecasting and state strategic planning in the economy, domestic and foreign policy.
To a crucial extent, the ability of a state to counteract a destructive threat from a model of controlled chaos is determined by its geopolitical status, including geographic, political, socio-economic and military factors.
By its status, the Russian Federation is among the leaders of the modern world and remains at the epicenter of the interests of the leading states. However, not all of them are ready to cooperate on an equal and mutually beneficial basis. A number of economic, political, territorial and other claims are being made to our country. The combination of these circumstances allows us to speak of Russia as a possible goal of the model of controlled chaos. It is easy to see that the conditions discussed above, contributing to the development of controlled chaos, in some cases are significantly correlated with the characteristics of the situation in modern Russia.
However, the Russian Federation as a modern developed state has a fairly wide arsenal of organizational technologies with a constructive focus, the use of which can reduce the risk of instability and chaos. In general, such technologies are ordered sets of constantly improving methods and means of implementing management decisions to avoid a dead-end path of development and degradation, strengthen the country's unity, develop and introduce modern technologies, fight corruption, maintain information and transport links between regions.
In the spiritual sphere, important efforts are directed towards the development of dialogue, contacts and consensus among all religions in Russia as a whole and in each specific and particular geopolitical zone and ethnic community (in the republic, region, multinational city, on the territory common to peoples of different religions).
A well-thought-out personnel policy is needed that can prevent the advance of self-serving people who are incapable of creative work and the creation of network agents into the institutions of power. Important attention should rightfully be given to improving the defense capability of the state, equipping troops and forces fleet modern weapon systems and military equipment. The basis of all these actions should be a system of state strategic planning, reporting and control. The task is to translate the potential charge of existing technologies into the kinetic energy of development.
The threat of controlled chaos in Russia and neighboring countries can be neutralized by a combination of well-thought-out measures for the internal transformation of the country and the implementation of the Russian strategy to create a Eurasian Union by uniting peoples and states close to cultural and civilizational to Russia. At the same time, steps are being brewed for the development and possible transformation of the SCO into a Eurasian union of continental civilizations with the simultaneous formation of a friendly political and economic space on the southern flank of the Russian Federation.
The loss of time and rates of realization in the national interests of the unique geopolitical potential inherited by us in the foreseeable future can lead to the transformation of a country into a regional power, a decrease in its international status, and an increase in threats to territorial integrity.