Military Review

Marat Mussin talk with Sergei Gubanov about recession in Russia

53
Marat Mussin talk with Sergei Gubanov about recession in RussiaThe September issue of the Economist magazine (No. 9 for 2013) gave an interesting analysis of the current economic situation (Gubanov S. Autonomous Recession, as the final phase of the systemic crisis in Russia // Economist. 2013. No. 9).


We asked the author, Professor Sergey Semenovich Gubanov to tell about the situation in the domestic economy.

- Sergey Semenovich, what is happening now with the Russian economy?
- There are several innovations, but they all find expression in one thing - the economic recession. Russia in recession. True, the government assures that GDP is growing, and only the rate of this growth decreases to infinitely small. It seems that it is not averse to comforting itself, even if it is nanostand, because there is fish for bezrybe and cancer. However, there is virtually no growth.

Instead of growth, there is a decline - a decline in GDP, budget, aggregate demand, purchasing power of the population, enterprises and the state. While the prices of the main commodity exports - oil and gas - are not lower than last year. They are pretty tall. Therefore, one of the innovations is that high prices for commodity exports have ceased to support even the appearance of growth, which is still the essence of growth without development.

Thus, in dollar terms, GDP increased after 2002 in 5,5 times. But did the productivity of labor and the standard of living of Russians increase by 5,5? Nothing like this. The end-use commodity resources increased only by 43%, and all the rest is a bubble inflated by the inflation of the petrodollar. The volume of the commodity part of GDP is still less than 50% of the national income of the RSFSR at the level of 1990, when, by the way, Gorbachev's disorganization has already poured into the Yeltsin orgy of destruction of the USSR.

Before 2013, there was nominal growth, but there was no development. Now there is no growth. Since the second half of 2012, the economy has slipped into the attenuation band, and then the fall - still modest. The industry, capital investments, employment, export, profit, receipts in the state budget roll down. The purchasing power of the population inexorably dries out. The recession has already hit aggregate demand, and is very sensitive. Reigns budget sequestration, painful for everyone: people, industries, regions. Not seeing how to raise revenues, the Kremlin mercilessly cuts expenses.

Upward trend turned downward. The main reason is the policy of preserving the export-raw material model - the comprador and therefore anti-Russian. Because of this policy, Russia is immersed in a systemic crisis, continuing to work on foreign capital, instead of working on itself, on new industrialization, raising labor productivity, living standards and quality of life of the population.
- Is this a recession, the probability of which you announced more than a year and a half ago, back in January 2012?

- True, the possibility of just such a recession was discussed. At the end of 2011, it is worth recalling that the world froze in anticipation of a repeated recession. For the G7 countries, the IMF, the World Bank, and Nobel laureates in economics predicted gloom no later than the first half of 2012. N. Rubini hailed in the choir with terrible prophecy. In the middle of December 2011, my colleagues and I decided to check whether 2012 would indeed be the year of another collapse. And turned to our model prediction of cyclical crises. Calculations showed that troubadours of the “second wave of recession” hurried: at 2012, its probability was zero. A year has passed, and our conclusion turned out to be accurate: the model did not let us down.

At the same time, one rather unexpected result emerged. He directly touched Russia. As it turned out, while the recession in industrialized nations is so far incredible, then for our country, on the contrary, such a probability exists - and is high enough to be taken seriously. Therefore, I had to add that recession without recession is possible in Russia in the countries of the “big seven” - asymmetrically and at different times with them. It is probably appropriate to quote: “The dangers of a recession for developed countries in 2012 are not. For Russia, this danger exists, moreover, it is much more serious compared to 2008. ”(S. Gubanov. Is the world recession-2012 likely? // Economist. 2012. No. 1).

- How deep is the fall of the domestic economy in 2013?
- The recession is still moderate, the actual decline does not exceed 1,7% of GDP.
- Your estimate differs from the Rosstat calculations, which instead of minus 1,7% gives plus 1,6% of GDP for the first quarter, plus 1,2% for the second quarter and plus 1,4% for the first half of the year as a whole. Do not explain where this discrepancy comes from and how do you think?

- The calculation was carried out by two methods, based on official statistics. The method of balance of the national economy and the method of structural-dynamic analysis of the components of the use of GDP were used. It seems that it is unnecessary to go into the details and subtleties of the methodology, algorithm, and calculation tools. The main results speak for themselves.

Formally, the Rosstat estimate is correct: in nominal terms, GDP grew in the first quarter. 2013 on 1,6%. But is there an increase in real GDP use? In fact, there is no increase; on the contrary - there is a reduction. In total, by 1,7%. Unfortunately, the necessary data for the calculation of the second quarter is still missing. We only know that the second quarter was not better than the first. Two consecutive quarters "in the red" is a recession. Nominally GDP growth is, but really there is nothing to use from it. And the Kremlin has to spend reserves to statistically show economic growth.

- What element makes a major contribution to the recession?
- In the biggest minus gross accumulation. Compensation was on the line of final consumption, due to the reduction in net exports. The state simply spent foreign exchange reserves to support individual investment programs and, to a minimum, mandatory social spending. It is clear that foreign exchange reserves are scarce. Therefore, budget sequestration rages on all counts, not the most mandatory in the eyes of the government. Among them - science, education, health, space, etc.

Compradors do not suffer. With the help of private banks, they intensively withdraw their rent abroad. The social majority suffers, for all the burden of recession falls on its shoulders. Indexation for state employees is postponed, household tariffs increase, asocial regulation of electricity consumption is enforced, wages are cut, unemployment increases, even the property of the RAS, which has not been affected by privatization, is getting ready for a sale - the government is grabbing a straw.

In short, only support from state reserves allows us to show statistical growth in GDP. But real resources are needed. Paper tsifir does not compensate for their shortages, it does not satisfy either the investment hunger, nor the budget, nor the commodity, nor energy. So Russia is really in recession, and the budget is in short supply.

- Why did the economy begin to slide down from 2013, with high oil and gas prices?
- The reasons are divided into internal and external. The government believes that there are external causes: they say that low growth rates are everywhere in the world. This argument is wrong. Before 2013, the economies of the G-7 countries fought more for qualitative changes, and then the government took credit for the fact that, in terms of GDP growth, Russia was ahead of many slow ones. Now the industrialized countries have turned from slow into nimble, having achieved an industrial boom, and that - they suddenly began to slow down the Russian economy? Nonsense. Nod at them to anything. It makes no sense to hold on to unfit logic in order to divert attention from the truth.

External causes are not as critical as internal ones. Turning to the internal ones, one should keep in mind their division into fundamental and immediate ones.

Initially, the fundamental reasons. They are associated with a systemic crisis, which is caused by the dominance of comprador property and led to the separation of the extractive industry from manufacturing. The value chains are fragmented into autonomous pieces and inefficient. Intermediate production is cut off from the final. From here deindustrialization, degradation of science and education. As a result, the national economic value-added multiplier is 7-10 times lower than in industrialized countries.

The size of the final product is catastrophically small, and yes even divided in favor of compradors. This is a historically unpromising economic system hostile to Russia. I would like to note: in Russia, now in action all the same reasons that led to the collapse of the USSR. All of them boil down to the denationalization and offshorization of national property, dollar corruption, the supremacy of private interest over the nationwide, the loss of the moral and political unity of the government and the people. Destructive causes are not eliminated, and systemic restrictions have not been removed. On the basis of the oligarchic-comprador property, the accumulation of a critical mass continues to take place, and when reached, a slight shock will suffice for the chain reaction of the collapse of our country.

The internal system crisis will keep Russia on its knees as long as the extraction of raw materials is disconnected from its maximum and high-tech industrial processing into finished products with high added value. But to unite both sectors of the domestic industry, to harness them into a single harness, and only the common for them, integrated property can make the driving force for the rise of the entire national economy. In turn, to ensure their coordinated and coordinated work on the final result in a state only a planning and economic system, brought into line with the law of vertical integration and the principle of consensus planning.

Any systemic crisis is resolved only by eliminating the old economic system, the reactionary, and the establishment of a new, historically progressive one. There is no other way out of it.

Russia is somehow doomed to a new solution to the issue of property and its political and economic system. All that matters is how the country achieves a historically correct decision - predominantly evolutionary or revolutionary, “from above” or “from below”, or with a simultaneous political renewal of the “lower ranks” and “upper strata”. The outcome depends, as teaches история, on the degree of correspondence between objective and subjective factors.

It seems that the fundamental reasons are outlined enough. Among the immediate ones, it is necessary to single out: a fall in export volumes, the appearance of the effect of negative elasticity of export demand for price, the intensification of capital export abroad, a deterioration in return on investment, a double bias of profitability that paralyzes the production of investment goods and reduces the accumulation fund.

The monthly dynamics of Russian exports since the second half of 2012 has been mostly negative. Why? It's not about pricing. For oil and gas, they are comparable to last year’s, for example, for oil - 106 and 108 dollars per barrel. Metal prices have fallen, but the share of metals is not so large as to bring down the entire export dynamics. Obviously, a certain new factor has appeared, since high prices for oil and gas do not pull up the GDP.

And indeed, such a factor exists. This is the negative elasticity of export demand at a price from the EU countries. The higher the price, the lower the EU demand for our hydrocarbon raw materials. The only exception is the fourth quarter of the year when fuel supplies are needed. The remaining three quarters of the year give a negative elasticity. Bottom line: right now the physical volumes of gas exports to foreign countries, mainly to the EU, are almost 1,5 times lower than those of 2007. The volumes of oil exports are also lower. Given the decline in the volume of metallurgical exports, it is quite clear why raw materials exports have ceased to be a source of GDP growth.

- Is it temporary or long-term?
- Long-term, seriously and for a long time. I remember that on the radio we, Marat Mazitovich, even at the beginning of 2009 discussed the shifts in the EU energy balance, the prospects for post-oil energy and waste recycling technologies, including metal, plastic, etc. Then it seemed that the EU would need 5-7 for years, so that these changes would allow to maneuver demand for the purchase of oil and gas from Russia. However, the Europeans managed faster, in 4 of the year. Now they have significant sources of import substitution for oil and gas raw materials - in the amount of 15-20%. Thanks, by the way, to neo-industrial development, which accelerates the development of post-oil and recycling technologies, allowing you to increase the savings in labor, energy and resources.

Undoubtedly, the effect of negative elasticity on price in subsequent years will only increase. This is convincingly shown by recent analytical data on the German energy sector.

The fact is a fact: a directly proportional relationship between the prices of commodity exports and Russian GDP is broken. It can no longer be connected, and it is not in the power of Russia. High prices for oil and gas now do not guarantee an increase in GDP, while their decline guarantees a decline in the domestic economy.

- Hence your conclusion about the default of the export-raw material model?
- I guess, yes. However, the situation has worsened. Unlike 2008, now all the conditions are created for default in the full sense of the word. Foreign debt is almost 200 billion more than all Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves (700 billion against 500 billion). The notorious "airbag" has become a fiction: it is not enough even to cover external debt. Life has led to the collapse of the policy adopted since the establishment of the stabilization fund. It is necessary to stress again and again: this is the fund and the policy of stabilizing the dollar at the expense of the ruble. The line imposed by Washington and promoted by A. Kudrin initially contradicted the interests of our country. The main guarantee of Russia's security is the work of Russia on itself, and not on the US dollar.

- And what about the export of capital?
- Here are a few points of principle. First: the volume of export of capital from Russia is now 2 times higher than in 2010. The second: the Central Bank of the Russian Federation incorrectly estimates the amount of export of capital, which is why the figure is underestimated 3,5 times. According to an accurate estimate, over the past 9,5 years, almost 1 trillion has been pumped out of Russia. For comparison: this is 1,5 times more than those 20 trillion. rubles, which are intended to modernize the Armed Forces in the period before 2020. And the third point: the export of capital means a foreign trade imbalance in which the country loses its technological investments, i.e. new workplaces. In fact, in 9,5 years, our country has presented the West with over 5 million new, high-tech jobs. But she did not receive them, and continues to miss.

Nowadays, questions are often heard: where to get money for a new industrialization? Such a statement is fundamentally wrong. With the comprador system there is no place to take them. But if it were a planned system, they simply would not need to be taken from somewhere, because they would remain in Russia and work for Russia.

- Among the reasons you mentioned the deterioration of the return on investment and the double bias of profitability ...
- In the first half of the year, the total amount of profits dropped sharply - by about 20%. An even deeper decline in profitability in the manufacturing industry. The rate of return here is below the interest rate. Such a correlation eliminates the payback of technological investments, reduces the accumulation fund, as a result of which it only aggravates the general decline.

Regarding the double bias of profitability: the rate of profit of speculative capital on exchange transactions is many times higher than the profitability of not only the manufacturing, but even the mining industry. Therefore, the overflow does not come from a branch into a branch within a national economy, but from a national economy abroad. Bottom line: Russia remains without capital investment, without new jobs, steeped in deindustrialization and underdevelopment. This is also evidence of the default of the raw material export model.

Actually, the default of the raw materials export model is the direct cause of the autonomous recession of Russia, which began with 2013.

- What are the immediate prospects?
- The recession in industrialized countries is delayed, as our calculations show, at least until the middle of 2014. Therefore, the fall in commodity prices in the coming months is unlikely. In the fourth quarter, the effect of negative elasticity will disappear for a while, the volume of exports will increase slightly and pull in GDP. But this will only last until the beginning of 2014. Further statistical growth will again be supported by foreign exchange reserves, but they will be enough for no more than 1,5 year. It is possible that towards the end of 2014, another global recession will break out. If Russia happens to meet it with an export-raw material model, then the system-economic crisis will lead to a budget default and will result in an internal political one.

Based on the fact of an autonomous recession, the choice is already small and boils down to one of two things: either remove the systemic constraints of development, turning to vertical integration of property, or continue to pile them up, engaging in a deliberately reanimation of the raw materials export model in order to preserve comprador property. The first path leads to victory, and the second - to defeat, which for Russia is historically unacceptable.
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53 comments
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  1. Ingvar 72
    Ingvar 72 27 September 2013 16: 26 New
    10
    The author offers two ways, and if you agree with this, naturally the first is preferable for Russia. But how does he see its implementation within the framework of the WTO, into which Uncle Volodya kindly pulled us?
    1. Rus2012
      Rus2012 27 September 2013 18: 23 New
      +2
      Quote: Ingvar 72
      But how does he see its implementation within the framework of the WTO

      ... the WTO is already heating up.
      As the second wave of the global economic crisis goes, everyone will forget about this institution ...
    2. Interface
      Interface 27 September 2013 19: 55 New
      0
      I propose to leave all discussions of the "recession" in Russia until it begins.
      And right now we’ll scrape together a bunch of shit about our economy, but there will be no crisis, but everyone will have negative feelings.
      Although, of course, our economy, compared with the Union, looks pitiful, no matter how you look. no
      1. Heccrbq .2
        Heccrbq .2 27 September 2013 20: 10 New
        +7
        And can our colonial, wretched hydrocarbon economy still be scratched together by shit?
      2. vladimirZ
        vladimirZ 28 September 2013 07: 52 New
        +5
        How to leave a discussion if:

        The volume of the commodity part of GDP is still less than 50% of the national income of the RSFSR of the 1990 level.when, incidentally, Gorbachev's disorganization was already pouring into the Yeltsin bacchanal of the destruction of the USSR.
        .
        Industry, capital investments, employment, exports, profits, revenues to the state budget are sliding down. The purchasing power of the population is inexorably drying up.
        .
        The main reason is the policy of preserving the export-raw material model - a comprador and therefore anti-Russian one.
        .
        Russia is plunged into a systemic crisis, continuing to work for foreign capital, instead of working for itself, for a new industrialization, an increase in labor productivity, the level and quality of life of the population.

        . about fundamental reasons. They are associated with a systemic crisis that has spawned dominance of comprador property and led to the separation of the mining industry from manufacturing.
        ... Hence the deindustrialization, the degradation of science and education.
        ....
        The size of the final product is disastrously small, and even divided in favor of compradors. This is a historically unpromising economic system hostile to Russia.

        .in Russia, now in action all the same reasons that led to the collapse of the USSR. They all boil down to the denationalization and offshore of national ownership, dollar sales, the supremacy of private interest over the national interest, and the loss of the moral and political unity of power and people.
        .... On the basis of oligarchic-comprador property, a critical mass is still being developed, upon reaching which a small push will suffice for a chain reaction of the collapse of our country.

        How to end the discussion when people, like in the USSR, do not understand that the current government is leading us to an implacable collapse.
        Yes, the leadership of the state has now come to grips that, having weakened the army and navy, they have put their oligarchic interests at risk of seizing US and Western capital, at risk of their lives (Gaddafi’s example is before their eyes), and therefore they are speeding up trying to restore the fighting efficiency of the army and navy, they and destroyed.
        The systemic crisis, which the author writes about, can be solved only when the state takes control of the economy, "turning to the vertical integration of property." When it destroys oligarchic-comprador property as such, leaving a place for private capital in secondary roles in the general sector of the state’s economy.
        But for this we need other people in the leadership of the state, the current ones must be replaced by a legitimate elected way. There is no place in the leadership of the state for people who are pro-American and pro-Western "leaders of the nation", who are favorably disposed to the oligarchic-comprador bourgeoisie.
      3. VseDoFeNi
        VseDoFeNi 29 September 2013 06: 02 New
        -1
        Then, too, they scolded and corruption, and the shadow business, and corrupt officials ... Quarreled ... Musin would not hurt to pinch languages.
    3. Mitek
      Mitek 27 September 2013 22: 45 New
      +2
      Quote: Ingvar 72
      The author offers two ways, and if you agree with this, naturally the first is preferable for Russia. But how does he see its implementation within the framework of the WTO, into which Uncle Volodya kindly pulled us?

      I do not presume to judge the WTO. Not an economist, well, not a bit. And in which case you can do with a pen. But the crisis is not only ours. He is EVERYWHERE. The states have a public debt of space simply, but the crisis in Russia for some reason. One way out is a big war. But everyone understands that this will come to all the northern beast with valuable fur. So, instead of writing off all debts, you have to painfully seek a way out at once. And Russia, in my opinion, is the only self-sufficient country, or rather it can be in a special period. That's just a bureaucrat strangle ...
      1. demel2
        demel2 28 September 2013 04: 05 New
        +1
        So let's choke
    4. Kiliny
      Kiliny 28 September 2013 08: 10 New
      0
      In Russia and other countries there is a problem without deciding which to qualitatively change something for the better will not work. This problem, oddly enough, is not corruption! The key to the denouement is the NATIONALIZATION OF THE CBR. The fact is that the ruling financial elites of the world created with the help of the US Federal Reserve a system in which national banks of the countries of the world are not controlled by the governments of these countries. Nat banks are branches of the US Federal Reserve through which national money flows in the form of bonds and loans through the river, and practically no state has solved this problem. Exemptions and preferences are made only to individual countries allies of the United States. I bring to your attention a lecture by Valentin Yuryevich Katasonov, professor of the Department of International Finance at MGIMO. (analyzes the situation around the Central Bank of the Russian Federation). youtube.com/watch?v=Hze3CX2iiIw http://video.yandex.ru/search?text=%D1%86%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D1%80%D0%BE%D0% B1% D0

      %B0%D0%BD%D0%BA%20%D1%80%D1%84%20%D0%BF%D1%8F%D1%82%D0%B0%D1%8F%20%D0%BA%D0%BE%D

      0% BB% D0% BE% D0% BD% D0% BD% D0% B0% 20% D1% 84% D1% 80% D1% 81 & where = all & filmId = oS0U6OY2UXI] I OFFER SPECIFIC ACTIONS - VOTING In support of changes to the bill “On The Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia). ” http: //nationalzakon.rf/petit1.php [media = http: //nationalzakon.rf/petit1.php] VOTE DO NOT BE NON-DISASTER! Thank you for the attention. Yuri
    5. Kiliny
      Kiliny 28 September 2013 08: 12 New
      0
      In Russia and other countries there is a problem without deciding which to qualitatively change something for the better will not work. This problem, oddly enough, is not corruption! The key to the denouement is the NATIONALIZATION OF THE CBR. The fact is that the ruling financial elites of the world created with the help of the US Federal Reserve a system in which national banks of the countries of the world are not controlled by the governments of these countries. Nat banks are branches of the US Federal Reserve through which national money flows in the form of bonds and loans through the river, and practically no state has solved this problem. Exemptions and preferences are made only to individual countries allies of the United States. I bring to your attention a lecture by Valentin Yuryevich Katasonov, professor of the Department of International Finance at MGIMO. (analyzes the situation around the Central Bank of the Russian Federation). youtube.com/watch?v=Hze3CX2iiIw http://video.yandex.ru/search?text=%D1%86%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D1%80%D0%BE%D0% B1% D0

      %B0%D0%BD%D0%BA%20%D1%80%D1%84%20%D0%BF%D1%8F%D1%82%D0%B0%D1%8F%20%D0%BA%D0%BE%D

      0% BB% D0% BE% D0% BD% D0% BD% D0% B0% 20% D1% 84% D1% 80% D1% 81 & where = all & filmId = oS0U6OY2UXI] I OFFER SPECIFIC ACTIONS - VOTING In support of changes to the bill “On The Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia). ” http: //nationalzakon.rf/petit1.php [media = http: //nationalzakon.rf/petit1.php] VOTE DO NOT BE NON-DISASTER! Thank you for the attention. Yuri
    6. Kiliny
      Kiliny 28 September 2013 08: 26 New
      0
      In Russia and other countries there is a problem without deciding which to qualitatively change something for the better will not work.
      This problem, oddly enough, is not corruption!
      The key to the denouement is the NATIONALIZATION OF THE CBR.
      The fact is that the ruling financial elites of the world created with the help of the US Federal Reserve a system in which national banks of the countries of the world are not controlled by the governments of these countries. Nat banks are branches of the US Federal Reserve through which national money flows in the form of bonds and loans through the river, and practically no state has solved this problem. Exemptions and preferences are made only to individual countries allies of the United States.
      I bring to your attention a lecture by Valentin Yuryevich Katasonov, professor of the Department of International Finance at MGIMO. (analyzes the situation around the Central Bank of the Russian Federation). youtube.com/watch?v=Hze3CX2iiIw http://video.yandex.ru/search?text=%D1%86%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D1%80%D0%BE%D0% B1% D0

      %B0%D0%BD%D0%BA%20%D1%80%D1%84%20%D0%BF%D1%8F%D1%82%D0%B0%D1%8F%20%D0%BA%D0%BE%D

      0%BB%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%BD%D0%B0%20%D1%84%D1%80%D1%81&where=all&filmId=oS0U6OY2UXI]
      I OFFER SPECIFIC ACTIONS - VOTING In support of amendments to the draft law “On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)”.
      http://национальныйзакон.рф/petit1.php [media=http://национальныйзакон.рф/petit1.php]
      VOTE DO NOT BE INDIFFERENT! NO PRESIDENT, LET IT AT LEAST THREE PATRIOTS DOES NOT SOLVE THIS PROBLEM. Thank you for the attention. Yuri
    7. Kite
      Kite 28 September 2013 16: 23 New
      0
      Quote: Ingvar 72
      The author offers two ways .........

      The author does not offer anything, because he is an economist (a synonym is a fortuneteller). How many economists I read and hear with their theories and analyzes, I am so surprised - what kind of science is it that for every two “theorists” there are three or more “theories” - ?!
  2. Unknown
    Unknown 27 September 2013 18: 17 New
    -31
    Again an article with nostalgic snot about TIPS! Their time is gone and will never come back already! no
    1. vladsolo56
      vladsolo56 27 September 2013 18: 40 New
      14
      Snot you will fist on a fist when something happens that warns Gubanov. Although we all too will plunge into those very snot. Nothing good. By the way, dear Gubanov, you are better aware of the situation with the economy in Russia.
      1. Oleg14774
        Oleg14774 27 September 2013 20: 04 New
        +6
        Quote: vladsolo56
        Snot you will fist on a fist when something happens that warns Gubanov.

        I'm sorry, but I would like to add (or fix): Bloody snot!
      2. grafrozow
        grafrozow 27 September 2013 21: 37 New
        +2
        Quote: vladsolo56
        . By the way, dear Gubanov, you are better aware of the situation with the economy in Russia.
        Dear, where do the "gas" money go? About our power in the words of V.S.-She was like pure snow before my eyes ...
    2. yurii p
      yurii p 27 September 2013 21: 08 New
      +2
      yes it’s gone, but you need to learn from mistakes and not step on the same rake or ruin the USSR with economic illiteracy, what now must Russia be destroyed in this way? do you want this? but then expect a lot of blood, it won’t be like in the 90s, there is too much stratification of Russian society, which the West will be very glad to do so, so as not to please the West, but rejoice in its own prosperity and unity. And for your information under the TIPS, not everything was so bad and I will even express my opinion, everything was much better and cleaner, no need to walk the streets with weapons or injuries.
    3. grafrozow
      grafrozow 27 September 2013 21: 31 New
      +1
      Quote: Unknown
      Again an article with nostalgic snot about TIPS! Their time is gone and will never come back already!
      It’s a pity that they didn’t give a name, you’ll find mine. 70 years of Soviet power killed in people the initiative, who is not with us is against us !! I didn’t give up a party card, it was a drunken neighbor who told me, but what if I went to Kolyma, to 501 construction? I would gobble up a party card without salt, swallow it like a seagull! It's easy to shoot from the corner, but to attack ... You understand. hi camps at every turn, "conquerors of the north" such as the builders of BAM.
  3. horoh
    horoh 27 September 2013 18: 23 New
    10
    An interesting article, Gubanov is a smart contagion, so his Minister of Finance would be instead of the pro-Western "ignoramus." Oh dreams, dreams recourse
    1. alone
      alone 27 September 2013 20: 19 New
      +4
      whoever you put in the place of any minister, nothing will change. a system like a swamp, no matter how smart it is, you will not be allowed to leave the common boiler. yes and no one will nominate such ministers. do you know why? too smart and independent no one digests.
      1. Sergh
        Sergh 27 September 2013 21: 13 New
        +2
        Quote: horoh
        Gubanov smart infection, that would be his Minister

        Yes, not smart, but muddy! Hour was looking for Old about himself and his journal "The Economist", where he chap. editor. Generally zero information. But at the request of S. Gubanov, his magazine with translation is printed in England and the USA ...
        I read his speech: "Review by Prof. S. S. Gubanov on an article by V.V. Putin" and everything fell into place. He has saliva to the knees with anger that he is such a cool professor, and he was not involved in the leadership of the country, and he remained on the job as a simple chief editor, a simple journal "Economist".
        Here he is watering personally Putin, watering with other people's words, is clearly traceable.
        Well, like that. In short, I don’t believe this Gubanov.

        1. vladsolo56
          vladsolo56 28 September 2013 04: 44 New
          +1
          Well, you lied there is no strength, Information shaft, go to YouTube and there are a lot of videos with his speeches and lectures. and everything is clear and everything is very simple. This spit is spraying in you, and Gubanov is a very calm, restrained person and, unlike you, quite intelligent.
          1. Sergh
            Sergh 28 September 2013 07: 10 New
            0
            Quote: vladsolo56
            Well, you didn’t lie. There’s no information, go to YouTube and there’s a lot of videos with his speeches and lectures ... Your saliva is splashing, and Gubanov is a very calm, restrained person and, unlike you, smart enough

            Well, firstly, you need to wear big glasses and turn on your ISKCON, which is in the head.
            Secondly, I have it written in black and white:
            Quote: Sergh
            Old about himself and his journal "The Economist"

            This means that I was not particularly interested in his chatter on the air and from the rostrum, and I was looking for his biography, sponsors of his magazine, etc., where I found only that he began to write articles in this magazine since 1996 and NOTHING more , even on Wikipedia it’s not there, some videos on your YouTube.
            So, you can rinse your torn vest for Seryoga Gubanov with powder.
            Yes, at the expense of “restrained in contrast ... smart enough”, you’re in vain, my friend, you just look at him on YouTube, there we are all clean-shaven, all smart and calm, you would look at him, when he’s in the kitchen with a cob bottle of vodka, yes, the results are reversed. I’m somehow not used to believing everyone I met, so I’ve got to check it for lice, and when there is no information about a person known in PR, it immediately leads to bad thoughts, say, even suspicious ones ... So, save your strength, on a new shirt, by the way, don’t send me to YouTube anymore, I’ve been in Tyrnet since the 95th year, and already from the 03rd I worked as a programmer, well these are the details.
            Be healthy, Vladimir.
            1. vladsolo56
              vladsolo56 28 September 2013 09: 05 New
              +1
              A chatter is only in your stupid head, I can’t write sharper because of moderation. Your talk is much more transparent than you think, how did you and Gubanov in the kitchen ferment vodka to green. However, time will tell who is better versed in economics, your Chubais and Kudrins, or those whom I believe.
              1. Sergh
                Sergh 28 September 2013 14: 22 New
                -1
                Quote: vladsolo56
                only in your stupid head, I can’t write sharper because of moderation

                Well, yes, but we were offended, but the "reason" holds us by the tail, and then you stamp with your foot, foot ..., once again, in-oh, it immediately became easier!
                In short, you rebound from me with your insanity, go read the newspapers and wipe your drool, otherwise the whole monitor will splatter me. Wise guy.
                1. vladsolo56
                  vladsolo56 28 September 2013 16: 01 New
                  +1
                  Are you probably so cool? You think that the smartest, well, you made me laugh, at least something useful. Although fools always went in jest, so that everything is essentially true, continue to make people laugh.
  4. Cpa
    Cpa 27 September 2013 18: 24 New
    +3
    Taking into account GDP, we need to remove the domestic services sector, including financial services (especially banks, funds, exchanges). For the formation of the economy, we must proceed from the trade balance between countries and the gross product based on production indicators. Otherwise, we will be fooled by the "average temperature in the hospital. "
    1. bddrus
      bddrus 27 September 2013 19: 25 New
      +2
      so they say abroad there is that up to 80% is formed by the services market
      1. Cpa
        Cpa 27 September 2013 20: 06 New
        -1
        Quote: bddrus
        so they say abroad there is that up to 80% is formed by the services market

        Maybe this is an investment in Asian production?
        1. bddrus
          bddrus 28 September 2013 08: 16 New
          +1
          I can’t say, but even at the household level - all sorts of lawn mowing services, for example. We also have a lot of services that before (and sometimes now) it seemed nafig nobody needs. Not of course, they form 80% of GDP, but the same sector of financial services, lawyers, for example, all sorts of "analytical" agencies - although it may be a money laundering
          1. Cpa
            Cpa 28 September 2013 10: 28 New
            +1
            I agree with you, but the real sector of the economy pays for the services. In the United States, by and large, only the defense industry, agriculture, financial services and advanced developments work. Everything else is produced in third world countries and China. The entire freight for domestic services is exported and a positive trade balance between the countries. I came to you and I made an electrician for 500 rubles, you drew a house project for me for 500 rubles, it turns out that these five hundred rubles returned to you, and GDP grew by 1000 rubles. So real money brings only added value.
      2. Realist58
        Realist58 28 September 2013 10: 49 New
        -1
        They say chickens are milked in Moscow.
  5. MIKHAN
    MIKHAN 27 September 2013 18: 24 New
    +2
    Based on the fact of an autonomous recession, the choice is already small and comes down to one of two things: either remove the systemic restrictions of development by turning to vertical integration of property, or continue to pile them up, doing the obviously fruitless reanimation of the export-raw model in order to preserve comprador property
    It’s very viteevo as usual .. If in Russian it’s again .... Russian people .. Again, along the way, the Russian peasant will have to raise the “economy” with the most effective Fork and Arson method as in the good old days .. Otherwise, they do not understand the theory of economic development Russia!
    1. smile
      smile 27 September 2013 20: 32 New
      0
      MIKHAN
      Well, why is it possible to get weapons with a pitchfork through the channels of ethnic criminal groups from the Caucasus, take an automatic rifle, go outside and shoot ... you can burn some factories belonging to some oligarch - not the people’s, Russia will obviously breathe easier ... yes, the same criminals and terrorists will help you — you’re the main thing, make better connections with them and convince yourself that you really are going to flood Russia and weaken it — in this case, they will stand shoulder to shoulder with you ....
      and there will be universal prosperity on the bloodshot of the Russian people of Russia ... for the same Russian people ... your surviving relatives will be proud of you ....
      and if you survive, you will cry in old age. that you were deceived - what a blessed country it was, not like dozens of all kinds of government entities. Khanates and Islamic states, have arisen in place of Russia now ...
      But this will not happen. Do not give. Those who understand. that blood, not voditsa, is simply more .... and neither the help of the separatists, nor the Western help that you will receive in case of rebellion will save you. certainly will, well, as in Syria ...
    2. Karabin
      Karabin 27 September 2013 20: 37 New
      +7
      Quote: MIKHAN
      If in Russian then again na .... t Russian people.

      This is not difficult to do. Holders of comprador property found the right person for the role of guarantor, who has been confidentially broadcasting 13 years of sovereignty, development and modernization. He lies with inspiration and conviction. It is so convincing that the masses cry out and believe in a savior. And, you, Meehan are in the forefront of the enthusiastic, judging by your previous posts. In parallel, the myth of bad boyars and the leader of the national-patriotic movement is spreading. Swamps and the State Department, as without them, favorably set off the image of the king of hope. In fact, GDP is the guarantor of comprador property, which is repeatedly confirmed by the laws it has signed, staff appointments and the invariability of the economic course. So, when nae .... a Russian man, after "pitchforks and arson" will tear the veins on a real boom in the economy, it will be useful for him to scratch his turnips and admit that he had, in part, thanks to a broken trough.
  6. VladimS
    VladimS 27 September 2013 18: 31 New
    +8
    Unlike 2008, now all the conditions for default in the full sense of the word are created. External debt is almost $ 200 billion more than all the gold and foreign exchange reserves of Russia (700 billion versus 500 billion). The notorious “airbag” has become a fiction: it will not be enough even to cover external debt. Life has shown the collapse of the policies adopted since the creation of the stabilization fund. It must be emphasized once again: this is the fund and the policy of stabilizing the dollar at the expense of the ruble. The line imposed by Washington and promoted by A. Kudrin initially contradicted the interests of our country. The main guarantee of Russia's security is Russia's work for itself, and not for the American dollar.


    How many billions has this figure Kudrin invested in LB just before the crisis of 2008?
    They will call him to account - hardly!
    And they called him the best finance ministers for this "feat" ..! Ha ha ha
    For so many billions.
    It’s good that at least they were ashamed to glorify him as a genius - he saw a little swollen, he did not fit into the dachshund.
    Fuck, just no words, some mats ... Sorry.
    1. Yarosvet
      Yarosvet 27 September 2013 19: 10 New
      +4
      Quote: VladimS
      And they called him the best finance ministers for this "feat" ..!
    2. Oleg14774
      Oleg14774 27 September 2013 20: 07 New
      +5
      Quote: VladimS
      They will call him to account - hardly!

      Have you called Serdyuk? And what about Lebanon? Stupidly you begin to realize that you need to take Kalash and just go to wet these creatures in expensive cars and chic cottages. All these thoughts are durilovo. Zyuganov was shown on television today at 5:00. Allegedly, democracy and no one will see!
      1. Realist58
        Realist58 28 September 2013 10: 55 New
        -1
        Zyuganov, the same whore of the oligarchy as Putin.
        Judge by business, not a star.
  7. My address
    My address 27 September 2013 18: 45 New
    +4
    No nostalgia for the Soviets.

    Yes, just take and produce produced in the country to benefit the country:
    - to direct currency to the development of Russia, in China and capitalist Norway, the export of capital is regulated by the state;
    - to return the gold and foreign exchange reserves and see above (true, will they give them to us?);
    - stop talking about equal incomes, about the justification of high salaries for top officials (supposedly, to avoid a bad job, according to the lawyer of the GDP. We see how they worked out) harm him;
    - by analogy with the slogan of the Bolsheviks (down with the capitalist ministers), declare: "Down with the ministers of the enemies and iddiotts";
    - from senior officials demand up to criminal liability for poor performance. Why not? The higher the duties and rights, the higher d. a responsibility.

    I assure you, everything will go right away and go. And then look. Far from being a supporter of the current capitalists, but who will they take from the government for a serious position? No one.
    1. Oleg14774
      Oleg14774 27 September 2013 20: 08 New
      +2
      Quote: My address
      Yes, just take and produce produced in the country to benefit the country:

      Question: Who will do this ?! You chtoli will be allowed there, to this feeding trough or real patriots ?!
      1. My address
        My address 27 September 2013 21: 04 New
        +1
        Well yes!
        Allow me! I with a fool immediately create a belt of protection in the form of special services. And immediately, again foolishly, prohibiting the movement of capital from the country and suspects, such as Serdyukov, in the SIZO on the basis of an immediate decree on the responsibility of senior officials.
        Have experience in an unfriendly environment to the alien shop managers from the master and above. But after a couple of months everything was normal.
        1. Oleg14774
          Oleg14774 28 September 2013 09: 40 New
          0
          Quote: My address
          And immediately, again foolishly, I will prohibit the movement of capital from the country and suspects, such as Serdyukov, to jail on the basis of an immediate decree on the responsibility of senior officials.

          Then I am with you! The offer is worth it! But thoughts still materialize!
  8. Altona
    Altona 27 September 2013 18: 58 New
    +4
    The article accurately describes the current relations of production ... In the speeches bourgeois with the employees the term "our" money appears, but for some reason the salary is always the same figure ... hi
  9. Jrvin
    Jrvin 27 September 2013 19: 05 New
    +4
    There are fewer hard workers, and more parasites ... I've already noticed this ...
    1. Ulysses
      Ulysses 27 September 2013 19: 25 New
      +4
      The "effective managers" grow up children, grandchildren.
      And industrial enterprises no longer become.
      Only firmochki are produced that feed from them. (Well, from the state budget, this is an eldorado for 18-year-old offspring of "respected people").
      1. alone
        alone 27 September 2013 20: 23 New
        +3
        Quote: Ulysses
        The "effective managers" grow up children, grandchildren.


        wassat who will also become "effective managers")))
        1. Yarosvet
          Yarosvet 27 September 2013 20: 36 New
          +9
          Quote: lonely
          who will also become "effective managers")))
  10. bddrus
    bddrus 27 September 2013 19: 24 New
    +2
    to state the facts - it is not necessary to be called an economist. But to offer methods and schemes for solving problems - for sure. Sounding ways in the style of “need to make it good” is not a way.
    1. Oleg14774
      Oleg14774 27 September 2013 20: 10 New
      +4
      Quote: bddrus
      But to offer methods and schemes for solving problems - for sure. Sounding ways in the style of “need to be good” is not a way.

      A way to nationalize the main industrial enterprises! Is it really necessary to chew on such obvious things ?! Or do you see only what you see ?!
      1. bddrus
        bddrus 28 September 2013 08: 12 New
        +1
        chew on such a great economist - what will it give in a capitalist society? or are you an idealist - are all people kind and honest?
        1. Cap
          Cap 28 September 2013 17: 56 New
          0
          In the 90s we were taught that the most progressive economic system is capitalism, and the top of the capitalist economy is corporations with their multidisciplinary and unified planning.
          And what is a socialist economy? It is a single state super-corporation.
          Maybe it's time to return to this same super-corporation? And in order for the president to govern her better, assign him a share of 0,1% of real GDP. Yes to all ministers and their deputies to throw another 1%. And there is no GDP growth for at least 1 year - why the heck are such rulers!
  11. j iz sibiri
    j iz sibiri 27 September 2013 19: 41 New
    +2
    1 since there are no more heroes
    2 officers ran out
    3 the people have little money left and I don’t want everything in loans
    4 we can only wait for the tops to gnaw and kill each other
    1. Oleg14774
      Oleg14774 27 September 2013 20: 11 New
      +2
      Quote: j iz sibiri
      we can only wait for the tops to gnaw and kill each other

      Naive Siberian guy! :) I apologize in advance, but this is not a banter, but just a word combination. They would rather agree than to overwhelm. They will bite us!
      1. j iz sibiri
        j iz sibiri 27 September 2013 20: 16 New
        +1
        and I’m naive, it’s more like you lived a little more in this life

        there is never much money
    2. Cap
      Cap 28 September 2013 18: 02 New
      0
      You will still laugh, but the officers not only did not end, but even among the lieutenants there also appeared quite sane ones, putting the country's good above money.
      And, it seems to me, in the event of a serious crisis (such as external aggression, which will necessarily follow as soon as it seems that the country has weakened), it is the officers who will expend a significant part of the current officials, deputies, judges, oligarchs - for having traitors behind is against instinct self preservation.
  12. Grbear
    Grbear 27 September 2013 19: 50 New
    +5
    Article +.

    A rare article for the "free" open spaces of the Internet. Especially in comparison with the speeches of DAM at the Sochi forum. To call his performance a pseudo verbiage is the mildest. In fact, this is a recognition of their own incompetence and a direct indication of the reduction of unprotected items of expenditure. Reductions will affect the bureaucratic base - district clerks and their secretaries.

    I liked the thesis about the state and compradors. Russia "played" the builders of communism and it was enough for 20 years of capitalism. Tight state regulation of the country can get the "bottom", which is not good. Russia's wealth should work for Russia. Everything else must be considered criminality.

    There are enough smart and honest people in Russia. Which button must be pressed to initiate the dissolution of the existing government? Or will they wait for the MATROSA?
  13. individual
    individual 27 September 2013 19: 59 New
    +3
    The state got hooked on oil and gas addiction.
    The people got hooked on mortgage bondage so that they would not rock the boat and work on the terms of gentlemen who pump loot west into their den, where their children, families and their interests are.
    We have been granted the right to hope and dream.
  14. Konsmo
    Konsmo 27 September 2013 20: 36 New
    +1
    Too abstruse.
    Government, the egg itself twists counterclockwise.
    1. Raised the social. taxes. small ones went into the shade or closed. -
    Half a million offices closed. And little to figure out where these social taxes go?
    I was in the hospital, so I know, everyone yieldingm in, and with great pressure, after that they draw a heart attack, treatment for 21 days due to social. taxes (state) 20 days sanatorium free-to the sanatorium is taken by ambulance is the Moscow region. The shop Sanatorium squeals and grunts with pleasure. They draw money for themselves. Yes, and then they even persuade them to disability. I refused to go to the sanatorium (I had an extensive heart attack) and looked at me as an enemy of the people. I jumped to work, the guys were waiting.
    This is all due to the salaries of WORKERS!
    In Moscow, thousands of pavilions and tents were ravaged.
    As a result, people lost their jobs and do not buy food and goods in our stores. (Okay, there were a lot of visitors, but the Russians lost their jobs)
    The result is -100 billion in the budget of Moscow. And they are still surprised.
    Mood .. the sprawling of Moscow in the form of a key of GOLD. To hell.
    Mother Russia needs to be raised.
    On the contrary, an additional tax should be introduced in Moscow. Let's say 60 thousand higher tax is 18 percent.
    By the way, I myself Korennaya Moskvich my ancestors before serfdom, the abolition lived here.
    Many do not need the Russian people do not fuck ... And so that it would be too lazy to run from taxes is more profitable to pay.
    Also Millionaires. Million received a top tax of 20 percent. I am not a communist. I think that our millionaires should live and work with us. I saw how many people they give decent work. Some mansions in the suburbs of 10-20 people serve. And already for 2-3 people, thousands of summer cottages. So it’s especially not worth pressing.
    Offshore companies prohibit transferring money to offshore companies. Prohibit offshore companies to own property in Russia.
    This is done. I sell 1 ton of copper, for example. I sell to my company in Cyprus or all sorts of islands, for $ 1000
    The cost is about $ 950. Note that the workers' salaries are 12 thousand average at this cost.
    And only later. This MY firm outside of Russia sells this copper for $ 3500
    The income of the Company in Russia is $ 50. With her taxes. The income of My Firm in Cyprus $ 2500 without taxes.
    Such gaskets are quite common in Russia. Management creates a company and through it, say, buys computers for 100 thousand rubles. for his company, there are even private traders so fucked up .. and they go bankrupt .. Really pays 30 thousand for a company to a supplier. They don’t find billions, and so on a millionaire but many times.
    Everyone is happy everyone is laughing. In addition to the Russian state.
    The government should know this, and if they don’t know what they are doing there.
  15. Black
    Black 27 September 2013 20: 36 New
    +7
    The misfortune from the country's oil and gas wealth speaks in itself of the level of our power from the mid-70s to the last days.
    "magnets", "realities", "Auchans" (and over the past decades, it seems to me, they only grew like mushrooms) can’t raise the country ...
    In September in Volgograd, an aluminum plant was stopped, everyone was fired ....
  16. The comment was deleted.
  17. New Russia
    New Russia 27 September 2013 20: 52 New
    +3
    Even when the economy finally collapses, even if the Russians flee to Ukraine and Belarus from migrants, there will be people who will assure us that our government is good and that Putin is not to blame. But the economy is already collapsing and the main reason for the WTO. Why am I doing this. It's time to open your eyes who have not opened yet
    1. Arabist
      Arabist 27 September 2013 20: 54 New
      0
      Russians will run to Ukraine and Belarus? Are you nasty?
      1. New Russia
        New Russia 27 September 2013 21: 04 New
        -1
        Well, they are fleeing from Stavropol and Krasnoyarsk. In the worst case scenario,
        1. Arabist
          Arabist 27 September 2013 21: 05 New
          -1
          But about Krasnoyarsk in more detail.
          1. sashka
            sashka 27 September 2013 23: 11 New
            +1
            Quote: Arabist
            But about Krasnoyarsk in more detail.

            But from now on in more detail. Preferably in a "personal". In Engels, the “pipe” with work is concrete. Maybe you have a job?
            1. Arabist
              Arabist 27 September 2013 23: 14 New
              -1
              Want to move to Krasnodar?
        2. j iz sibiri
          j iz sibiri 27 September 2013 21: 07 New
          0
          and from Krasnoyarsk who runs to where?

          you that dear dreamed?
          1. New Russia
            New Russia 27 September 2013 21: 23 New
            -2
            I was searching, I was looking for this report of Channel One and I didn’t find it (
            1. Arabist
              Arabist 27 September 2013 21: 25 New
              -1
              It is difficult to find a black cat in a dark room, especially if she is not there, is it?
              1. New Russia
                New Russia 27 September 2013 21: 29 New
                -1
                I would not say if she was not there. I remember exactly on TV. You are lucky, but I’ll look now and then I’ll throw you off)
                1. Arabist
                  Arabist 27 September 2013 21: 30 New
                  -1
                  Really? Already envy myself. I don’t believe you too much.
                2. j iz sibiri
                  j iz sibiri 27 September 2013 21: 40 New
                  +1
                  probably not Krasnoyarsk and Krasnodar?
                  1. Arabist
                    Arabist 27 September 2013 21: 44 New
                    -1
                    This is also funny, I live in Krasnodar and do not watch crowds fleeing the city. But those fleeing to Krasnodar still, especially after several branches of KUBGU were closed, which did not pass accreditation, the share of Russian youth in Krasnodar increased.
                  2. New Russia
                    New Russia 27 September 2013 21: 47 New
                    0
                    No, Krasnoyarsk) By the way, I myself live near Krasnodar)
                    1. j iz sibiri
                      j iz sibiri 27 September 2013 21: 52 New
                      +1
                      then do not believe your source
                      1. Cap
                        Cap 28 September 2013 18: 10 New
                        +2
                        You can still laugh, but in St. Petersburg, several people have already told me that they are considering moving to Belarus.
                        Everything is very simple. Housing there is cheaper, there is much more order, and on an officer retirement it is quite possible to live well.
  18. Just Vasilich
    Just Vasilich 27 September 2013 20: 54 New
    +6
    From the article: It is possible that closer to the end of 2014, another world recession will erupt. If Russia happens to meet it with an export-raw model, then the systemic economic crisis will lead to a budget default and result in an internal political one.

    When is our next re-election of Putin, in 2018? It seems that everything will be decided much earlier. Or he will radically change the vector of development of the country, which is unlikely, or he will radically change.

    At first, he has neither desire nor strength in the sense that he is firmly tied to various elite-clan groups (ECGs).

    As for the second option, various scenarios are possible here, ranging from physical elimination (in the event that he still decides to go against the interests of the ECG) and ending with the rebellion of a people tired of the creating abomination.

    The evolutionary path of the country's development in line with democracy, liberalism and globalization leads it to a dead end. It's time for the country to turn on the afterburner and change the thrust vector of its engines. With Putin or without Putin.
  19. pinecone
    pinecone 27 September 2013 21: 18 New
    +6
    The economy is in recession, but the so-called "labor migrants" continue to be imported in huge quantities. FOR WHAT? Apparently, to dilute and subsequently replace the indigenous population of the country with an obedient (for a while) electorate. I don’t see another answer.
    1. sashka
      sashka 27 September 2013 22: 12 New
      +1
      Quote: pinecone
      FOR WHAT?

      Rabsila is required in addition to the "opposition" for the construction of new roads and the development of Siberia. All day I was crucified about the need and need to occupy the people with something useful. And then in the Country, besides slaves, nobody wants to work in galleys .. (m) an eccentric ...
  20. Kiliny
    Kiliny 27 September 2013 22: 03 New
    +4
    The banking sector and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation are not controlled by the government of the Russian Federation. I bring to your attention a lecture by Valentin Yuryevich Katasonov, professor of the Department of International Finance at MGIMO. (analyzes the situation around the Central Bank of the Russian Federation). youtube.com/watch?v=Hze3CX2iiIw
  21. sashka
    sashka 27 September 2013 22: 07 New
    +6
    I watched and listened to “this” “premiere” today all day on Russia 24. “SPECIFIC Oak. He just doesn’t understand what he says. (He can’t connect two words with a fool) He hasn’t gone far from the host. He suggests building a new road around Moscow and the new Bam .. For the price and labor the same .. They promised to create 25 million new jobs .. Now I believe they will create .. In the form of camps for “white-collar workers” and other “non-systemic” opposition. stupidly put crosses and zeroes .... I have never doubted since I was on this site ..
  22. Gerurra
    Gerurra 27 September 2013 22: 14 New
    +4
    Buy weapons legally while you have them in weapons stores. People of certain nationalities have them in their hands without registration and with registration a lot, and this fifth column voted 100 percent for Dima Mendel and V.V.P. In the case of economic troubles, they will be in favor of them since many are not bad at feeding. We do not need a war. !!! We need the slogan everything for Russia. Build roads - they will create jobs in many directions. Reduce the bureaucracy to the level of the RSFSR. If the bureaucrat has close relatives abroad - prohibit holding any government duties. Any bureaucrat gets a term of two to three times that. than a simple citizen for a crime. No house arrests for bureaucrats. For a telephone right, arrest (this is when a bureaucrat asks another bureaucrat to smear one of his own) for at least 10 years. Any term for an official should start from 10 years. Deprived of all rights after leaving prison (to build roads forcibly while in jail-refusal-into the pit). The right to vote and be elected. For the term of his imprisonment the next of kin are also deprived of their rights. The employer does not have the right to take guest workers to work for more than 10 percent. Select the violation. Check purchases of more than 300 rubles for their legality (the average salary for about a year is tax-free). For red tape, an official is imprisoned. Return gold to Tsarist Ros these with percentages from France-USA-Japan-Czech Republic-England-if they can’t return, let them return with equipment- technologies — in short, barter, and the percentages run away. Cancel taxes to farmers for five years. Stop the rise in gas and gas prices (build state oil refineries - forbidding to sell them - indefinitely). To ban bank interest above 000. To prohibit offshore operations and participate in them. To return education at the level of the USSR - now our nouveau riche need illiterate dumb people like in the USA.
    To make labor prisons (to build roads) a refusal because the law is a pit (for cover from the work of the boss to them in the pit) .Captured ethnic drug dealers clans should be arrested with their relatives and go ahead to develop the cold pole of Oymyakon to build a road to Magadan. to build large shopping malls — no more than two — in cities of up to 350, preventing small businesses from dying. Yes, it’s cruel, but now it’s impossible. Do evil in the name of good. Excuse me. Allow street trading for a time of crisis. This will give people self-employment. Now there are massive layoffs under the guise of restructuring.
  23. sashka
    sashka 27 September 2013 22: 20 New
    +2
    It is a pity "esaul" this triumph of Putinism does not see, but maybe I did. The black list however .. Wow how scary .. Climb out scream a couple more slogans odd ..
  24. HollyGremlin
    HollyGremlin 27 September 2013 23: 08 New
    +3
    All experts vyingly shout that the Russian economy is terribly raw and that look will fall apart. I get the impression that these are frauds of the haves to rob the population: I will explain why
    1. I work as a programmer - the work is sea, I even have to give up (of course, this is not the manufacturing sector, but my friends who are engaged in production are generally in demand). There are some who whine that there is no work, but their minority and they simply do not want to work.
    2. A friend who graduated from Gubkin did not go to work in the oil and gas sector - it was hard, it turned out to be easier for him to get into business.
    Thus, the fall can begin only from above, and it is specially provoked. What for? everything is just to take away our money, which we only started to accumulate.
    Maybe I am a dense amateur, but God sees, if they throw us again like in the 90s, I won’t stay at home, although I was born in the USSR, I will protect my own.
    1. intsurfer
      intsurfer 28 September 2013 06: 18 New
      +3
      Quote: HollyGremlin
      I work as a programmer - I have to work at sea, I even have to give up (of course, this is not a manufacturing sector, but my friends who are engaged in production are generally in demand).

      Greetings, colleague! Yes, there is plenty of work, but for those who already know how. And in production, hot cakes are only high-level specialists. The problem is that in the country there is no way to start something new, even in the services sector yourself - it is just that investments are required such that no bank will give such money to a person from the street. And the person himself will not take them at such percentages as now. The cost of renting premises is generally terrible - I know first hand how much. In principle, all issues are resolved, but not straightforwardly. Because of this, there is a deceleration of our economy. Instead of giving people the opportunity to work for themselves, our state is doing everything so that a class of citizens strongly dependent on it appears - state employees, the unemployed, etc. Maybe this solves some state tasks in the near future, but globally - it drives the country into a third world group. Look at China - their only crisis is that growth has ceased to be 10-15 percent per year, but it has become 7-9. Compare prices in Chinese online stores with ours. So I’ll go to the post office to receive a collimator for the air bag. 750 rub with delivery from China. In our stores below 2500r did not see. I don’t even know Russian manufacturers ...
      1. HollyGremlin
        HollyGremlin 28 September 2013 10: 06 New
        0
        I agree, there are many problems (I don’t consider myself a high-level specialist, and our town is not very big). The problem in the business with loans, of course, exists, but again it is imposed by banks and actually invented by them in order to receive excess profits. So it turns out that the real economy is quite afloat, and the top when it wants to flood the economy. About China - I honestly don’t imagine how they do it, I just thought yesterday: I saw a power strip in the store for 6 outlets (80 rubles) in the store, as I didn’t try to imagine a negative salary from the worker turned out.
        Small business wait a bit:
        1. Until 2000, it was very difficult to make money (if you do not steal)
        2. Less 3 years for buildup, 10 years of savings remain
        3. Over these 10 years, a person had to deal with an apartment, a car, a fur coat, a herring (because no one would risk the latter)
        4. So it turns out that there would be a small business, you need to wait another 5-10 years
        5. But if the top arranges another bankrupt bankruptcy (read theft), then clearly nothing will come of it.
        (And the collimator is a very specific product, here hucksters also profit. It’s not a problem to establish production, just buy a license and get certified, China is spared this good. Licenses and patents are evil, and don’t tell me that they bring profit to the creators, the product creates - a hard worker, and accounting receives money))
  25. sergey261180
    sergey261180 27 September 2013 23: 31 New
    +5
    It's time to drive these compradors.
  26. alone
    alone 27 September 2013 23: 53 New
    +1
    on one sale of raw materials, the economy can’t be raised. it's like 2x2 = 4. if someone believes that it is possible, I’m waiting for reasoned arguments on this issue
    1. j iz sibiri
      j iz sibiri 28 September 2013 00: 01 New
      -2
      everything can be done wisely
      1. j iz sibiri
        j iz sibiri 28 September 2013 09: 36 New
        0
        and what three cretins want to challenge the truth

        at least you will be called and marked and then there will be a dialogue
    2. j iz sibiri
      j iz sibiri 28 September 2013 09: 37 New
      -1
      lonely mister you at least understand what nonsense you wrote?
  27. Konsmo
    Konsmo 28 September 2013 02: 37 New
    +3
    The government is adrift, like r ... they don’t know how to boost the economy.
    this is the St. Petersburg thieves' association of amateurs. They have only taught and taught all their lives, they never did anything with their own hands.
    They want to develop the science of nano technology, and for whom. Factories are not just dead bodies.
  28. Indifferent
    Indifferent 28 September 2013 06: 40 New
    +3
    Coming soon EdRa. So let’s see if anyone blunders there about where they drove Russia with their rotten and corrupt policy.
    But I'm sure until the middle of '14 there will be nothing but bubbles in Russian society! He is too inert and too trusts all kinds of mailboxes and politicians broadcasting from there.
  29. Lindon
    Lindon 28 September 2013 07: 08 New
    0
    Whatever the supporters of the authorities wrote, the crisis in Russia is obvious.
    Putin and Medvedev come up with good excuses - "recession is everywhere - that's why there are external factors, etc."
    The internal failures of economic policy are stubbornly hushed up - one worth the outflow of capital is worth.
    There is no need to reinvent the wheel - import substitution, industrialization, protection of the manufacturer, merging of the economies of the Customs Union - cooperation at the industry level, etc.
  30. The comment was deleted.
  31. Who
    Who 28 September 2013 11: 03 New
    -1
    On the surface is a superficial and worthless article with cheating and howling.
  32. SPACE
    SPACE 28 September 2013 11: 45 New
    -1
    Phos Phos smile laughing lol Such articles cannot be read without laughter and tenderness. All finally prosralipolymers wassat Yeah Gubanov is a head! Especially against the background of talking about education, bought diplomas, I wonder in which university this analytig earned for a diploma? Just don’t say that you read it a lot and personally know laughing They say the analyst is at the base which is knowledge and experience, but is it that is based on money, well, where is there more money? Naturally in the West !!! Well, a person earns what he can, see nothing more than see problems in education. Oh well, X is with him!
    First, we live in a time of developed democracy and a market economy. The government is only the dominant part of the country, solving social problems and the money that is available to them to solve these problems comes in the form of taxes and from the sale of resources! Only on this they can count and use. It is not difficult to find information and calculate how much oil and gas and, generally, minerals have been extracted and sold for the search period and multiplied by the cost, highlight what is due to the budget. Further, the manufacturing sector means the one that belongs to the state, as a rule defense, planes, boats, tanks are built and sold for export, in principle, that’s all that is in the hands of the state government, what it can manage and why have money in the budget! And then comes the private business sector, and this is the Lord, most of us TOGETHER TAKEN TOGETHER, moreover, it should be divided into two parts production and trade, we do not consider services, it is difficult, although necessary. So, business and we also pay taxes and no one needs to explain the mentality of our people with taxes and development, it’s difficult to control everyone, therefore the state is counting on us last. Own production sector, as a rule, works on the domestic market, it’s difficult to work on the external market even when entering the WTO, there is a lot of competition over the hill. The trading and banking sector, in its overwhelming majority, works in the ZABOREGE by distributing Western goods in the domestic market i.e. indirectly struggling with domestic producers. In the West, the crisis is raging, it has not stopped for a minute and is simply compensated by monetary injections and increased competition, which leads to a decrease in the cost of goods, which in turn receive advantages for crowding out and conquering other markets, including ours. Which in a free market leads to the loss of part of the market by domestic manufacturers and along the chain ... until the budget is full. Therefore, to argue that the Western market does not reflect on us is complete nonsense ....
    1. SPACE
      SPACE 28 September 2013 11: 47 New
      -1
      Continued ... At the same time, the state does not have the right to actively OPEN to intervene in this business process and everything that is offered in the article and comments about the nationalization of industry and the greater role of the state in the economy is unrealistic or useless, just like a change of government is not if everyone thinks that any kind of clever new people's government will nationalize business and ban the import of Western goods laughing yeah;) you want to cut off your own hara-kiri? Or maybe they will teach Mercedes with iPhones in one day. We need to work and study, and mainly for our businessmen, well, the government will make everyone access to cheap loans, but who can guarantee that the business will use them to develop its own production, increase salaries, etc. As a result, you can add up the figures and compare them with the budget and at least find out the order of the budget deficit relationship, but you must keep in mind that you cannot compare the budget revenue estimates with different years, the government could have different tasks besides the main expense items, besides economy and increasing the well-being of people, reduces the social budget item. And in the government, for the most part, not stupid people are sitting and the sector subordinate to them is holding up quite well, although it is always necessary to clean it constantly, of course! .....

      While in Russia there is something to get, all this analytics is complete garbage, or someone thinks that tomorrow the whole world will transfer to mopeds on shale gas laughing
      I do not count on an understanding of the local electorate, given that they do not know how to think on their own, but simply reflect in red, but nevertheless, I do not exclude a little hope that some may resume their own thought process ...
      Z.Y. Do not believe the statistics, neither state nor any, this is just a means of agitation and a business move in order to get virtual advantages and turn them into money. Believe only yourself, for me statistics is the length of a barbecue grill in your favorite cafe and the waiting time for an order, which only grows contrary to all sorts of forecasts of academic analysts ... although this may be the "effect of negative elasticity" laughing
    2. HollyGremlin
      HollyGremlin 28 September 2013 14: 22 New
      +1
      Very sensible comments. But as you said, I measure my barbecue and that is curious: Chinese goods prevail on the shelves and I don’t see a few of our, German, French, American. Chinese goods are already cheap, cheaper only for nothing, so I don’t really understand how the crisis in Europe will crowd out our goods. But if their machines become cheaper, this is only a plus (we still do not know how to do ours with 90% of cases). And iPhone can learn how to do it in one day: it’s easy to legalize piracy, China also 10 years ago, for copying everything and everything, and now everyone is afraid to blame it because they see that such a scheme works. And most importantly - for us, there is a niche just between expensive European and cheap Chinese models (but this is of course philosophy and dreams).
  33. Realist58
    Realist58 28 September 2013 11: 54 New
    +1
    There are only two questions - Who is to blame and what to do?
    On the first issue - The main task of the state and the purpose of its creation is to ensure the comprehensive security of citizens of the state (economic, political, environmental, military, etc.). To accomplish this task, supreme power is chosen. The current power, the power of dictators. It must be removed.
    It is not acceptable to tidy up the revolution - for after any revolution even worse scum come to power. So you need to follow the path of EVOLUTION, uniting under the coherent program of ALL HEALTHY FORCES and demand.

    What is this course that you need to demand for EVOLUTION?
    1. Changes in the appointment system of JUDGES. Judges must be elected by the people. Each candidate must pass a polygraph test to ensure that voters are not provided with false information about themselves.
    2. For corrupt judges and employees of state security services there can be only one punishment - the highest measure of social protection (to the wall).
    3. Nationalization of SALE of serious resources. ALL.
    Mining companies (of any form of ownership) should receive only money (on a competitive basis) for production. By the way, this will immediately become an incentive for the development of innovative projects in this area, since the margin of such companies can increase only with a decrease in the cost of production.
    4. Change in the system of criminal prosecution and execution of sentences. Deprivation of liberty should be used only as a measure to ensure the safety of citizens in the event of a potential threat.
    The prerogative of punishment for the place of state revenge should be the rule of undoubted and full compensation for losses caused by criminal activity. In case of refusal of voluntary compensation, or extremely low amount - FORCED WORK.
    5. The punishment for a public servant convicted of an official crime should also be a LIQUID deprivation of the right to occupy any positions in the state (municipal) service, and organizations of other forms of ownership with a state share.
    6. Introduction into the constitution of a rule prohibiting the use of military units against their own citizens. The actions of the military against their own citizens qualify as a betrayal of their homeland.
    7 ...
    8 ...
    1. SPACE
      SPACE 28 September 2013 14: 01 New
      -1
      Quote: Realist58
      There are only two questions - Who is to blame and what to do? ...

      Well, everything is correct, everything goes to this ...
      m-e-d-l-e-n-n-o and e-in-o-l-u-c-and-o-n-n-o and drags it all PUTIN and co! Well, why the hell did he plant Khodorkovsky and Kvachkov? Do not forget that we are part of this democratic liberal world and drastic actions can disrupt this process by creating additional barriers, activating nasty international forces, few people understand this now, this is the so-called mass hypnosis, some of us, for the time being, fall asleep with others too up to the time naturally. We will get a true understanding and answer to today's events in years through 20-50, unless of course you wake up behind the hill ... In my opinion, today only one person has unveiled the curtain, this is Vaserman “Logistics, beats any strategy”! It’s just that logistics is at the expense of the people, otherwise you won’t win what you want democracy, but in war as in war ... And if the West wakes up earlier ... pray, Stalin will seem like flowers to you!