Report of Igor Shumeiko at the conference of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems ...
My report is devoted to today's most important region, the bridge of Russia in the 21 century - the Far East.
Today, the most famous statement of the American politician about Siberia is, of course: “It’s not fair that all the riches of Siberia belong only to the Russians” - Madeleine Albright. But the focus of my book is different: as if the fair old woman didn’t have to say it again: “It’s unfair that all the riches of Siberia belong to ... the Chinese”.
141 million Chinese live in two provinces adjacent to the border in the Far East. Russians in the Far East and Eastern Siberia - 6 million. What does история? - in our development of the Far East - also an encrypted current situation, the conditions for its preservation ...
In a Russia-China relationship, there has never been a “task with two rotating bodies”. As in astronomical calculations of the orbits, the “third body” was always present. And who is the "Sun" there, who is the "Earth", who is who? - will distribute, competing, Mrs. History with Mrs. Propaganda. So far, all 370 years (the period of our contacts), these masks are constantly changing.
The first "Third Body" was Manchuria. A “landmark” coincidence: 1644, Russia's first expedition to Amur (Poyarkova), and 1644 - the Manchus seized China, creating the Qing dynasty. The first successful campaigns (Khabarova) and the first failure, the defeat on Korcheevskoy onions 1658. The Treaty of Nerchinsk (1689), the historical letter of the Chinese emperor Kansi to Peter the First sum up that period: “The Russian state is cold and distant, if I sent my troops, everyone would freeze, and at least seize something, then what profit ? And our side is hot, and if imperial majesty sends its troops against me, they can die in vain, because they are not used to the heat ”(1720).
Further, the “third body” has become, let's call it: “NATO of the 19 century.” England and France, Opium Wars, the seizure of capitals. In modern terms, the operation "Tea in exchange for opium." Bogdykhan powerlessly observes how the "NATO members" place opium curl in the country, take out tea, silk, and porcelain. That is why China is so pleased with the new appearance of Russia on the Amur, on the Pacific Ocean. Today, panic superchargers report: on some Chinese maps of the Far East (the Amur region and Primorye) are depicted as Chinese. Yes, they were so, while in 1850-ies of Nevelskoy and Muravyov again, like Poyarkov and Khabarovs began to clean up the empty edge to their hands. Explicitly, peacefully. with China handed them to Russia. The most important geopolitical fact: NOT after any war. Not by force, but by its ... necessity Russia receives the Amur region, Primorye. The rulers of millennial China calculated that the three-body configuration would be sustainable, and ...
... and the calculations of the Confucian sages were brilliantly justified in the 20 century. Japan has become a new “third body”, shredding China tirelessly since 1894. And Russia, even after losing to the Russian-Japanese, even having civilized itself, remains on the shore of the Pacific Ocean ... Managing to help Mahojedunov not only Bogdykhanov, but China. True, the fact that they got their need - we can lose its uselessness, dispersed worthlessness.
The motives of the "Great geographical discoveries"
What was the reason for the extraordinary movements and state efforts in the “Great 16th Century,” as Marx called it? Approximately at the time when Russia went to the Urals and to Siberia - Spain and Portugal equally pushed the boundaries of the known world. When the Netherlands and England, France joined this movement ... Russia has already reached the Pacific Ocean. The “paradox”, our consciousness, the subconscious with the ingrained topic of “Struggle for Existence”, “social Darwinism” suggests: new means of subsistence, life and food resources. They have Malthus, we have Nikolai Alekseich Nekrasov: “There is a King in the world, this King is merciless. Hunger - nickname to him. "
It is difficult to object, remembering the potatoes brought by the Great Discoveries which saved him from starvation. And ... the "savior" is already the time of Khrushchev - corn. Millions of plowed acres of America and Siberia: the expansion of the food base. But this is a kind of aberration, running about the consequences before the causes! European expeditions were equipped, if you remember exactly: for Spices. The horizon of the world parted: thirst for ginger and cinnamon. Pepper, coriander, cloves, nutmeg. India and the Islands of Spice (Moluk) were the only goal. Vasco da Gama, having lost two of the four ships, on his, returning - got rich. It is estimated that 700% of income ... And the expedition of Magellan, already without him, paid for the costs of one of the remaining five ships.
But ... NOT quenching hunger, on the contrary, stimulation of appetite (that is, hunger) is a function of spices. Europe, with its wines, olive oil, onions, garlic, vinegar, herbs, fruits ... was "on sustainable self-sufficiency." Overseas spices - a kind of "redundancy." And the calculated profitability of the Spice trade, 700-800%, indirectly refers to “redundancy”. After all, had someone 700% - on everyday, “basic” products, on which Hunger / non-Hunger depends, he would have all the money of Europe in three years, and the economy would have disappeared as such ...
Some kind of invariance: the first motive of the Russian march to Siberia is also well known and somewhat similar to the Western motive. Fur. After all, the Russian-European forests gave almost all the necessary furs (not counting the sheepskin and hides of domesticated animals): bear, hare, squirrel, beaver, fox, lynx, ferret, marten ... even an ermine for royal robes. But ... in Siberia there was a sable.
Walking with my family at the Zoo, I with a very special sense of surprise, gratitude, affection, even stop at the cage of this flexible, mobile handsome, who paid for his brilliant, satin sandpaper - the Russian development of Siberia ... The best, darkest skin, (in language furriers: "head", the most expensive in the world), was at the Barguzinsky sable. Siberian oil and gas, hydropower plants, cellulose, aluminum giants, and tomorrow's (if you recall the pictures of the world drawn by political scientists and future major resources), a quarter of the world's fresh water, Baikal ... everything turned out to be a pendant, addition, surprise for the descendants of the remote Sable hunters.
Not. The picture of our historical memory will never be complete, and we will remain inert, ungrateful inhabitants, until we put up - the Monument to the Sable. Zverok - geopolitics.
Sable was also found in Western Siberia, but the Cossacks, the hunters, had not yet exhausted this source, moved on, for the best. And why is this fur of the Barguzin Sable better? Dependence is simple, monumental and just, like the laws of the universe: the farther to the East, the harsher the climate is, the colder the winter is, this is Mother Nature and took care to dress up her children. And not only dress up, give, a stock of vital energy. In the book "Fishing animals of our reservoirs" Kaverznev, caught an interesting fact: "According to the Moscow customs assessment XNUMHgoda: Pound beaver stream of the Ukrainian beaver: 1674rub, Siberian: 1,5rub"
Another thing is that the main consumers of furs were the Chinese, residents of the Middle East, (the word “coat” comes from “Juba”, a city in Mesopotamia), but about the flavors of Taste that drove, for example, Europeans to discover the world in pursuit of cinnamon and nutmeg already said.
Ordinary sable pelts cost 1-2 ruble, the best 20-30 ruble, but ... this, I repeat, was not an ordinary product, but rather a work of art, and some sable pelts reached in the price up to ... 400, 500, and up to 550 (record) then rubles! Piece of art? First, there are experts, the class of consumers who distinguished 5 ruble, from 20, and from those beyond. Secondly, 550 of rubles is comparable to the cost of the current, combined hand-drawn Picasso, Matisse.
In the 1650-ies, export reached 145.000 with small skins. The royal treasury ... in sables, black foxes, and ermines was estimated at 600.000rub, 33% of the then state revenue. Historians, attentive enough to the texture of life, noted that the country had risen after the Time of Troubles, largely due to this new source of wealth.
The Cossacks went to impose Yasak indigenous tribes. Next are the Russian hunters, "warriors", "skladniki", gathered in the artels, sharing the prey strictly equally. They gave in kind - "tithe fee." The skins were laid out on 40, an old Russian measure (“forty forty”): “top to bottom, middle to middle, thin to thin”. Customs kisses copied furs, issued "otpiski", the remaining skins branded.
Exhaustion did not keep waiting. Indigenous tribes shot sable archery, Russian hunters came with new tools: “coolers” (oppressive traps), “sweeps” (nets), mining increased several times. By the end of the 17 century, a ban was imposed on sable fishing, and the famous “Gold-boiling Mangazeya” (Salekhard) had already managed to fly up and fall into desolation. In 1670-s, half of those who came to Siberia were returning home. But ... the main historical result: Russian life after the "sable fever" was not interrupted. Slowly increased the price of "non-naked fur", fish, sea animal, "frozen tooth" (walrus tusk). The settlers willingly put on military service, went to the merchants, the bread-growers ... and the “plowed” path affected the geography of our further advancement in Siberia - the Far East, and caused a peculiar geographical phenomenon to which so little attention was paid.
"Geographically Fur Theorem"
And a quick glance at the map of Siberia will reveal to you a simple truth: the four main Siberian rivers Irtysh, Ob, Yenisei, Lena flowed across our movement to the East and only one along the Amur. These four are called “barriers, obstacles” - somewhat superficially, more correctly: more often a water barrier than a waterway. Question: at what latitude, north or south to overcome these obstacles? Band of choice: 2.000 kilometers, from the Arctic to the steppe line, nomadic demesne.
From general considerations it seems that it would be better - to the south. After all, the Arctic Ocean serves at least some kind of communication only today, in the age of nuclear-powered icebreakers. And in general, what does “it would be better” ?! - after all, this is how the Trans-Siberian Railway, the backbone of Siberia, went through ... But the trick is that the line of the first advance into Siberia did not at all coincide with the 19 tract of the century, but it went much, much further north. Recall milestones:
Tobolsk is founded in 1587, Tomsk is in 1604, Yakutsk is in 1618, Okhotsk is in 1638. That is ... Kamchatka, Alaska, even ... California reached 250 (!) Years before they reached this supporting axis of present-day Russia: Ural - Vladivostok.
The highest specific cost: the best sable skins surpassed the price of gold a lot by their weight. A quarter, a third of the Russian budget could bring, and 250let brought! several teams with pack horses - along that northern hunting trail Okhotsk-Yakutsk.
What is the deception of "Political cards"? On some of them, the mighty Russian Empire was painted over with a dull green, olive color: a great stretch from the Baltic, the Black Sea, stretching to the Pacific Ocean. Sometimes on the sidebars - the map of Alaska, “Russian America” was also attached. Sometimes, the fill color instead of olive was pink, true for chromatic continuity with the future of the USSR. What is the cunning and deception of this magnificent drawing? We are talking here about the maps of the Russian Empire (an important detail) until 1860 of the year, before the Beijing Treaty, without the Amur Region and Primorye.
They said, and rightly so, that Russia is not a colonial empire, like Spain, Portugal, Britain. Visible image: here is a single, coherent, like a living body, a country, half of Eurasia. Compare with the picture of the same Portuguese or Dutch colonial empires: there is a scrap, a patch here, a coastal strip, here a point of the city ...
That deception of unity and coherence of the Russian state body was revealed by impartial physical maps - on which there are usually no dotted lines of state borders (they are also so mobile, temporary!), But there are eternal borders, there are shades of blue and blue - the depths of lakes, seas, oceans , there are unshakable patterns of brown color: mountains.
The entire eastern part of the country, access to the ocean through the Sea of Okhotsk, Kamchatka, Alaska - were cut off from Russia: the very mountains that the Lena River had turned at right angles met. Behind the Verkhoyansk Range, on the icy shore, the lonely Okhotsk loomed. And further, beyond the Sea of Okhotsk, imposingly looking Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, then Alaska. How was the fleet built there? It is clear that the forest is local, the tool, the nails, the compasses, the canvas were all dragged along. But the ropes had to be cut in Yakutsk, and the anchors were cut, because of which they greatly lost their strength - because the “road” to Okhotsk, through the Verkhoyansk range, Dzhugdzhur was a “luge-pack” path. 1261 is a kilometer (I cite the figure on the basis of the route being laid today), and Okhotsk reached what can be loaded onto horses.
Further. The main global point of sale of furs was Canton (now Hong Kong). And after the whalers, active British dealers came to the Russian Kamchatka and Alaska, with offers (so far) to sell furs on the spot. 80-90% of the income got to the British. Alternative, Russian way of delivering Russian Alaskan furs: through Okhotsk, by the same path to Yakutsk, and then by caravans to Kyakhta - the center of Russian-Chinese trade. The price in Kyakhta, a far north outpost of Chinese trade, is significantly lower than in Hong Kong. Speaking in modern terminology: CIF-Kyahta was much lower than CIF-Canton. But the most amazing - time. The Russian route for delivering Russian fur to China at that time took ... 2 (two) years. The figure itself is shameful and insulting in itself, worse than any Russophobic, “DeCustrin” libel, but even the furs in that road were very spoiled ...
But the Crimean War was advancing, and our Pacific fortresses, being ruined by mischief-makers - American whalers, were to meet the Anglo-French navy. In general, our situation cannot be described except for our expression: the Far East kept its snot.
That is the illusiveness of the “single state body of Russia” on impressively deceitful political maps. And for that, the cousin of the seven main Decembrists (including Muraviev-Apostolov), Nikolai Nikolayevich Muravyov, was given the title “Count of Amur”.
Amur. Second coming
Ants saw the key to the Russian Far East: Cupid. Nevelsky's salutary discovery: Sakhalin is still an island, and as a result, Amur has a navigable estuary (since the times of La Perouse, it was believed that Sakhalin is connected to the mainland by gigantic sands in which Amur is lost).
The first step in the development of the Amur region was military expeditions (rafting) on Amur Governor General Muravyov. Delivered military equipment and food. In the Shilkinsky Plant was prepared flotilla: 75 barges, 4 dies, flagship: Argun steamboat, built on donations from the merchant Kuznetsov.
"On the second day of 3, an hour of the afternoon entered the waters of Cupid ... Ants, scooping up Amur water into a glass, congratulated everyone ... Solemn minute, after a two-century gap, the Russians on Amur!"
By the end of 1855 in the lower reaches of the Amur, there are five Russian settlements. The flotilla of Muravyov came to rescue our far-eastern coast, at the very last moment. Soon the united squadrons of Great Britain and France approached Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky.
Wars The emperors
Traces of our “readiness” for the Crimean War (paradox!) Are visible in the popular and now rumors about Alaska. That it did not seem to be sold to the Americans, but leased on 99 for years. Even politicians "trump": we demand to return rented Alaska!
No, alas! - Alaska is sold, "clean", but where did these long-term rumors about renting come from ?! The Russian-American Company saw that the only chance to preserve Russian Alaska was its “fictitious lease”, for three years, as the Anglo-French fleet comes in, to show a piece of paper. Private property!
For thirty years, Emperor Nicholas I and Nesselrode were engaged in Poland, Hungary, the Sacred Union, successfully gathering a pan-European coalition against Russia. Against this vigorous diplomatic “work”, the army over 40 years is (just a unique case in history) the absolute zero of changes! For weapons and tactics, just a “photo” of the victorious 1812 army of the year.
The allies, who were in 1812 (the point of comparison, as a memorable "1913 level of the year"), practically equal in arms, made a jump in three main areas: rifled guns, rifled artillery, steam fleet.
First, the maneuverability period: three battles lost in the Crimea, but one thing they won. For their quick-rifle rifles, the guns paid with blood, according to the established increased loss rate, but this is also a war, similar to the previous ones, with some chances. The siege of Sevastopol, the first period - with cores against rifled artillery shells, is also a payback for an increased coefficient, but this is also a usual war: sorties, repulses of assaults. Artillery duels, the delivery of projectiles / nuclei, replacement of retired guns and calculations. We have: on oxen, on dirt back roads, twice a year, in the spring and in the fall, just turning off from the scattering. The British by rail (the first railway in the Crimea - Balaklava-Sevastopol).
New, contactless (from our side!) War. The bombings, from August 24, “the Allies silenced the artillery of Malakhov Kurgan and the 2 Bastion,” killed 3 thousands a day, with no possibility of inflicting retaliatory losses, similar to those of the Serbs and NATO in 1999. Therefore, Gorchakov leaves Sevastopol. "First Logistics War"! Competition traffic flows, ton-kilometers ...
In the Pacific, you can find the only monarch who supported (feasible) the work of our Nicholas the First. I do not know whether you will laugh or cry, but this one turned out to be ... Kamehameha the Third King of the Hawaiian Islands! Of course, the leaders of the island tribes of Tahiti, Fiji, Papua, Hawaii were called "kings" with some irony, but, as one well-known politician said a hundred years after the events described: "I have no other kings for you!"
But even the shadow of possible snobbery will leave the reader: in a letter of March 1854, King Kamehameha the Third warned our governor that he had reliable information about a possible attack on the Petropavlovsk British and French in the summer. At the level of transport-communication at that time, it was really very valuable information!
16 guns and 350 soldiers (Amur alloy Muravyev) was enough to repulse the first assault on Petropavlovsk. In May, 1855, the Anglo-French fleet came again, in a double composition ... But Petropavlovsk was empty. All the property, the remaining guns, people were loaded onto ships and taken out ... Where? And once again, please look at the map. Great Pacific, and retreat - nowhere! Russian Alaska is covered with a piece of paper, a pseudo-lease agreement, the entire Asian coast: the icy desert. Evacuated people will die without British landings. Is it possible - to the Hawaiian Islands ... to Pearl Harbor ... to the only "ally" Kamehamehe the Third !? And the discovery of Nevelsky again affected: the mouth of the Amur! Scientists denied it as a fact a few years ago, it accepted ships with the evacuated garrison of Petropavlovsk.
"Second Logistic" rightly called the Russian-Japanese war. In the equations of the sum of the weights of the projectiles ejected - both parts have grown incredibly, and now only the railway could save the situation. Count Witte and managed to build it five months before the outbreak of war. 1 July 1903 launched the Trans-Siberian Railway, still without Circum-Baikal, ferrying trains through Baikal (and in the winter putting rails on Baikal ice), on the same day, they began to transfer troops to the Far East. Army Corps, 30.000 pax transported for 1 month. Without the saving thread of Transsib - Vladivostok, like Port Arthur, would have turned into Sevastopol 50-year-old. Witte's great merit: Russia remained in the Far East. Conduct a blitz survey: from 100, people who know Witte's nickname “Count of Semi-Sakhalin” - how many will know that in May the military council asked Emperor Nicholas II to make peace, and 16 in July, 1905, with battles (costing 70 Japanese killed ) was all Sakhalin surrendered? So Witte, having concluded the 5 of September, the Portsmouth Peace, in fact, won half of Sakhalin. Black ingratitude.
A certain “Comfort Life Coefficient” established in Moscow assesses the regions as a fraction. Numerator - convertible natural wealth. The denominator is the problems of this region, population, supply difficulties, relations with geopolitical neighbors ... Interest in any region is directly proportional to the size of this KKZH, and the ideal territory of Russia would look at the limit - resembling the outlines of the Republic of Chile: just extended from the oil fields / gas pipelines, past the “subsidized regions” - to the borders of the buying countries ... They understand: without Siberian oil and gas, many successful politicians, political scientists, analysts, marketing specialists would find themselves in the same Moldova, with shovels E and brooms in hands.
Territories are always drawn to the coasts and the hypothetical estrangement of the Far East would start the process of a certain "geographical gangrene", the consistent detachment of regions to the Urals ...
East Asia-Europe is the main transport route of modernity and foreseeable future. The cost of turnover in 2000 was $ 237,9 billion. Now, the vessels on the Indian Ocean and the Suez Canal operate mainly on the route, leaving our heartland Transsib somewhere with 5% of traffic. The first idea: to lay another kilometer of 400-600 of our, Russian gauge, from Brest to the European terminals and ... finally get to work!